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Post by UberCranky on Sept 26, 2013 21:35:46 GMT -5
So my fellow hope and dreamers, how many points do you think we will get? Are we going to repeat last year's dreams and eventual crashing? Or worse?
What I think we will do is come out strong but not at elite level. As usual, we will start to collapse around Xmss and fighting for 8th place. I simply do not see anything impresive to bring us to another level.
Royalty reached? Repeat and redemption? Or reduced to rift-raft?
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Post by seventeen on Sept 26, 2013 23:04:10 GMT -5
I figure about 97 points. All depending on Price of course. Let's assume Carey has an above average season. We have good goaltending, an allstar defenseman and a budding super scorer (Chucky). After Emelin recovers fully, say Feb, our D is strong and deep. We can afford to rest Markov. We have three balanced scoring lines and enough toughness to deter attacks on our shrimps. I'd everything goes well, we can battle for a top 3 overall spot. If it doesn't go well....Carey plays so so and we have injuries, especially to our tough guys, we miss the playoffs.
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Post by Bones on Sept 26, 2013 23:47:10 GMT -5
I'm with seventeen i also chose 90-99 points and hope clings.. I think we'll be fine, should be a dog fight this season though, looking forward to it!
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Post by Willie Dog on Sept 27, 2013 7:29:41 GMT -5
I think 90-99 but in reality, since I don't think this team can win with MT as coach, I would be OK with having leaf fans pity us, a shot at the top pick and Gallant as the new head coach.
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Post by Boston_Habs on Sept 27, 2013 8:39:43 GMT -5
OK, I'll bite. I said 100 points or better.
No more messing around. No more low expectations so we can avoid being disappointed. No more thinking that contention is just another 1-2 years away, but not now. Enough. I have expectations for this team and I expect them to deliver. I still don't think MB did enough to beef up the defense, but his lack of moves tells me that he believes in this team and thinks they are a contender. So I'm good with that, and now it's up to the guys to prove it. The difference between this version of the Habs and the Martin years is these guys can score. If we can score we can win.
We were a 107-point team last year pro-rated over a full season, we won the division, and were the #2 seed in the playoffs. Why should we expect any less? Are we saying that was a fluke? That we would have regressed over 82 games? We did it last year with an offense that was near the top of the conference and between built-in improvements (Gallys, Eller) and new additions (Briere) I expect us to be at least as productive offensively as we were last year.
3 goals a game + decent team defense + average goaltending = 100 points.
If we don't get there it means one of those components broke down. These guys have played solid defense for several years going back to Jacques Martin, Price really just needs to deliver league average stats (~91% save pct), and we showed last year that we can score 5-on-5 and our PP clicked at around 20%.
We should be pushing Boston for the division crown.
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Post by Polarice on Sept 27, 2013 8:55:04 GMT -5
I think we will finish around 100-102 range, good enough for top 3.
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Post by CentreHice on Sept 27, 2013 11:16:19 GMT -5
I don't see us reaching the goal yet. 80-90 pts. The Leafs, Bruins, and Sabres are all tougher...and the way this league is run, who's gonna get the favouritism when it comes to the BS? It sure won't be the Habs.
Add to that, the ? on Price (once again)...and I just can't vote higher.
Makes me YEARN for the days when it neither mattered who the Habs played nor what style they chose to play. And it seemed we were always the favourite....in any rink.
Don't like this constant "catch-up" mode.
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Post by Skilly on Sept 27, 2013 17:23:00 GMT -5
I don't think we are going to be able to score enough ... I think we will have 3 players with over 20 goals, none over 30.
Not sure how many points we will get, but it won't be enough to make the playoffs.
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Post by christrpn on Sept 27, 2013 17:23:33 GMT -5
Im going to be brave and say 110+, like BH i'm tired of expecting for a decent team. It might be a dream, but heck, it doesn't hurt
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Post by seventeen on Sept 27, 2013 17:43:30 GMT -5
Atta boy, Chris, go big or go home.
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Post by stoat on Sept 28, 2013 0:25:00 GMT -5
I don't think we are going to be able to score enough ... I think we will have 3 players with over 20 goals, none over 30. Not sure how many points we will get, but it won't be enough to make the playoffs. Wow, are you pessimistic! Is your dire prediction based on the preseason games? The failure to trade for a top 4 Dman? The departure of Ryder? The improvements other teams have made? The Detroit factor? Sure, making the playoffs will be tougher this season and the Habs are unlikely to lead their division but they should squeeze into the playoffs if Markov holds up. Injuries and suspensions play a role but that applies to every team. I see Pacioretty with 30+ goals. At least 3 of the following will net 20+: Plekanec, Galchenyuk, Bourque, Gionta, Gallagher, Subban.
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Post by CentreHice on Sept 28, 2013 8:29:37 GMT -5
I don't think it's pessimism, stoat. Lots of reality there.
The top 3 teams from each division automatically make the playoffs. Two wild card teams from each Conference (having the next highest point totals, regardless of division) also get in.
So taking a look at the Atlantic:
Boston Buffalo Tampa Bay Florida Toronto Montreal Detroit Ottawa
Do we have what it takes to finish Top 3 to get in automatically?
I see Boston and Ottawa finishing ahead of us....and there's always Detroit.
So that leaves wild card. We MUST get a handle on the Leafs and Sabres or they'll stand a great chance of finishing ahead of us based on head-to-head 4 pointers. And we have no control over what happens in the Metro division.
I'm with Skilly...we're in tough. We'll work hard and give it all we've got....but the task is daunting...especially with the question mark and shallow depth in goal.
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Post by Doc Holliday on Sept 28, 2013 9:35:57 GMT -5
I think over 100pts is doable. Solid goaltending, Norris on D with good supporting cast (Markov, Tinordi, Emelin, Gorges, Murray, Bouillon...), 3 lines that can produce offense. Of course we can never guess how injuries will influence us and others, but I'm optimistic.
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Post by stoat on Sept 28, 2013 18:22:09 GMT -5
I don't think it's pessimism, stoat. Lots of reality there. The top 3 teams from each division automatically make the playoffs. Two wild card teams from each Conference (having the next highest point totals, regardless of division) also get in. So taking a look at the Atlantic: Boston Buffalo Tampa Bay Florida Toronto Montreal Detroit Ottawa Do we have what it takes to finish Top 3 to get in automatically? I see Boston and Ottawa finishing ahead of us....and there's always Detroit. So that leaves wild card. We MUST get a handle on the Leafs and Sabres or they'll stand a great chance of finishing ahead of us based on head-to-head 4 pointers. And we have no control over what happens in the Metro division. I'm with Skilly...we're in tough. We'll work hard and give it all we've got....but the task is daunting...especially with the question mark and shallow depth in goal. What you say is reasonable enough. However, I'm weighing the situation against last season, when the Habs finished ahead of everyone but Pittsburgh. Substituting Detroit for Winnipeg will be one more obstacle and I can see that the Senators are improved and have Karlsson back from the start of the season. I don't see the Sabres as materially improved. I also don't think the Habs goaltending is that shallow. I think the team is deeper this season and there are a number of near-NHL-ready prospects with the Bulldogs. Finally, they added a couple of tough guys. So we'll see what happens. I hope I'm not being overly optimistic. I've been disappointed in the past.
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Post by habsask on Sept 29, 2013 1:19:54 GMT -5
I see the Habs around 90 point, give or take a few points either way. So I opted for 80 - 90 point range.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Sept 29, 2013 2:56:54 GMT -5
96 Ryder has not been replaced, Borque has never lived up to his promise, Neither has Price, Subban is #1 and it is hard to improve on that, (-1?), the two Gallys will improve, Brieres getting older and smaller, Markov is older and wiser and slower, 96 points.
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Post by christrpn on Sept 29, 2013 7:35:01 GMT -5
I can't help but feel optimistic about this years team. Maybe it's because I live in the area. The hype around here is unbelievable. I've been sucked in and I'm at their mercy. I honestly believe that if all the stars (no pun intended) align, we will be a strong contender for our devision. Do i believe we have what it takes to win the cup? That's another question for another thread.
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Post by HFTO on Sept 29, 2013 22:15:39 GMT -5
I'm worried and not because I don't think we can't grab a wild card but because I'm not a believer in MT and his game planning. Still a ton of questions in goal(although I expect a huge year by Carey)...I have no faith in Budaj On D are we still tough enough??? and will MT play Markov to death!(I'm betting he does) 1st line... Can Patches be a bona fide 35/30 guy? Can DD contribute enough?? and what does Briere have left?? 2nd line... Bourque, Pleks, and Gionata...does anyone honestly believe they can be better? ... all these players are regressing. 3rd line...Biggest potential can they gel?...will MT let them ? and if they do how many minutes will they play?...I'm betting not enough. 4th line.. Aside from Prust are the likes of Moen, Parros, and White good enough to give this team what they need...I say it's 50/50 Seems like a perfect storm has to develop, and is MT smart enough to push the right buttons???....the boys usually surprise us but as of today,pretty tough to vote anything higher than 90pts with a full and balanced schedule coming up...here's hoping for that storm otherwise it'll be a long and miserable winter. HFTO HFTO
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Post by stoat on Sept 29, 2013 22:33:18 GMT -5
I'm worried and not because I don't think we can't grab a wild card but because I'm not a believer in MT and his game planning. Still a ton of questions in goal(although I expect a huge year by Carey)...I have no faith in Budaj On D are we still tough enough??? and will MT play Markov to death!(I'm betting he does) 1st line... Can Patches be a bona fide 35/30 guy? Can DD contribute enough?? and what does Briere have left?? 2nd line... Bourque, Pleks, and Gionata...does anyone honestly believe they can be better? ... all these players are regressing. 3rd line...Biggest potential can they gel?...will MT let them ? and if they do how many minutes will they play?...I'm betting not enough. 4th line.. Aside from Prust are the likes of Moen, Parros, and White good enough to give this team what they need...I say it's 50/50 Seems like a perfect storm has to develop, and is MT smart enough to push the right buttons???....the boys usually surprise us but as of today,pretty tough to vote anything higher than 90pts with a full and balanced schedule coming up...here's hoping for that storm otherwise it'll be a long and miserable winter. HFTO HFTO Would your outlook change if the Habs shell the Leafs on Tuesday?
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Post by seventeen on Sept 29, 2013 22:55:14 GMT -5
It's not necessary to shell them. If we look organized in our own end, if Carey makes a few very good saves, if we allow no intimidation at all from the Leafs, I think we'll be fine. We can score enough to beat them, but will we shy away from the rough stuff and will we be defensively responsible? Those 3 areas will be critical...Carey, push-back and defense. And we have to win at least half our fights.
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Post by Skilly on Sept 30, 2013 8:19:25 GMT -5
We had our keeper pool draft last night. We had to pick two goalies. I figured I'd leave my goalies selections late, and concentrate on getting a good crop of defenseman and youth on forward. There were 14 rounds of selections, 12 teams, and I pick my first goalie in round 9. Most teams had two goalies by then. Who did I select? You got it, Carey Price ... it seems no one has confidence in him anymore, I just hope being on my team isnt a jinx.
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Post by Tankdriver on Sept 30, 2013 9:59:15 GMT -5
If it was just our division, I think we would make it. It's the crossover that worries me. I think we are in a dog fight for the last 2 spots. Marc Bergevin doesn't inspire much confidence with regards to his radio comments. He says we are on the right track but aren't a real contender yet at this time. In truth, he's right. We are I think one big power forward guy and one big defenceman away from contenders.
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Post by franko on Sept 30, 2013 11:16:10 GMT -5
I, of course, am an optimist. Not quite in the mold of Bones, but an optimist none-the-less. I think the Sens and the Wings are over-rated, the Leafs are a joke [not that I would give them any credit to begin with]. the Florida teams are rebuilding [again! though I wonder if Thomas can help the Panthers], and the Sabres are the Sabres. Which means 2nd place in our division.
48-29-5 for 101 points [even I can't believe that number but I'm sticking to it].
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Post by Dschens on Sept 30, 2013 12:30:09 GMT -5
If it was just our division, I think we would make it. It's the crossover that worries me. I think we are in a dog fight for the last 2 spots. Marc Bergevin doesn't inspire much confidence with regards to his radio comments. He says we are on the right track but aren't a real contender yet at this time. In truth, he's right. We are I think one big power forward guy and one big defenceman away from contenders. Contending has a lot to do with pure luck and the stars aligning. One lucky save, a timely goal or a favourable call from the zebras and the confidence of one player or a whole team can rise sky high. By the way my dices say 98 points and 2nd in the division.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Sept 30, 2013 16:08:39 GMT -5
High 90s due to some slump in the season and a lot of tough divisional games.
We of course could blow right by that if Carey has an awesome year and there is no sophomore slump.
I think we take third in our division.
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Post by seventeen on Oct 1, 2013 1:20:33 GMT -5
The TSN experts have us finishing 5th in our group (whatever that's called) and out of the playoffs. The Leafs ahead of us. Surprise. Our guys better be tigers this year, for that slight alone.
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Post by franko on Oct 1, 2013 5:06:17 GMT -5
The TSN experts have us finishing 5th in our group (whatever that's called) and out of the playoffs. The Leafs ahead of us. Surprise. so what's new?
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Post by Bobs_HABit on Oct 1, 2013 7:26:18 GMT -5
Too often I've fallen in to the trap of assuming young players will take that next step, only because they are another year older. I can see one of the Galys taking a step back. That said, I'm hoping Eller continues to become the player we all hoped but the key to me is that PK must play even better than last. We need him to play a steady/strong 28 minutes a night. I predicted between 80-90 and figure to be on the high end of that, say 87.
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Post by Tankdriver on Oct 1, 2013 8:32:23 GMT -5
The TSN experts have us finishing 5th in our group (whatever that's called) and out of the playoffs. The Leafs ahead of us. Surprise. Our guys better be tigers this year, for that slight alone. I missed the show so can you tell me on what basis they have Toronto above us?
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Post by blny on Oct 1, 2013 8:39:22 GMT -5
There are a lot of 'ifs' in the new "Atlantic Division". Boston should be a sure thing to be at or near the top of the division. Detroit too. The Wings, despite their age, are perhaps the most intelligent and best coached team in the league. That will mean a strong regular season. 3-5th place for the Habs is a logical inference. There will be a lot of factors that determine the order the three Canadian teams finish in.
Can the Senators score enough goals? Ryan and Spezza are the offense, and Spezza is one hit from another season ending back injury. They need some of their younger players to step up.
Can the Leafs keep the puck out of their net? Komisarek may well be addition by subtraction, but it's not like he was in the lineup last year. Liles has been given the same treatment, and been sent to the Marlies after clearing waivers. With that move, the Leafs are a mere $60k below the cap ceiling. They need to address that situation still. They'll score some goals, and they'll bruise their way to some wins, but can Reimer and Bernier give them the goal tending they need to make up for the blue line?
The Canadiens' fate is somewhat similar to that of the Leafs, imo. Will Price be the goalie he can be? Will the chance to play in the Olympics, combined with his new goalie coach, motivate him to have his best season as a Hab? He needs it. The Habs need it. I'm not expecting a significant sophomore jinx for the Gals. They're somewhat insulated in that they're not a top six focal point. The club does have 3 line combos that should produce goals. Galchenyuk also got significantly better as the season wore on. The word may be out, but I think they'll be able to produce. We'll see what the blue line does. I don't have a lot of faith that Markov will be effective 5-on-5. Subban will have to carry the load. Injuries to Murray and Emelin mean Tinordi is going to have to jump in right away. We'll see how he handles it. I have a good feeling, but there will be growing pains.
In the end, finishing 3rd-5th is accurate. Too many variables for me to predict where.
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