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Post by GNick99 on Jan 28, 2014 10:44:33 GMT -5
Sell at the deadline, regardless of our position. Maximize return. Preferably for near ready blue chippers. Just imagine if we'd gotten a Rivet like return for Souray and Komi? I don't think we'd be having this discussion right now. You can say that it doesn't always work out, but that is on MB to make it happen. Not going to win the cup anyways. Cup or bust, but be smart about it:). The fans and players will get over the whole "not adding at the deadline thing". I would move Markov before Plekanec. Pleks is one of top defensive centers in league who can chip in 50+ points. He still has a few top years left, then I see him playing a Guy Carbonneau type role on team for a couple of more years, up until he is 35, maybe 37-38. I think the team needs to get bigger, tougher. Bring in a Lemaire who would tighten up the team defensive, with solid goaltending this would be good team. Those kind of teams are hard to play against in the playoffs. Compete every year, get deep in playoffs annually, win a Cup every 6-7 years. Something like retro-80s Habs. Sure, have a Naslund type or two offensively. But overall I think it is near impossible for us to build a dynasty type powerhouse again. Unless we bottom out for 3-5 years. Which I don't see as an answer.
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Post by Doc Holliday on Jan 28, 2014 12:51:27 GMT -5
The thing about DD is you get a secondary offensive 50ish pts center for 3.5mil... That's not expensive at all... it gives you good leeway to invest in other assets... And you don't have to invest a gazillion minutes in him either, he's currently 3rd in icetime among centers. Yes he's had a horrible season start but still he currently stands just 5 pts off Plekanec with 3 games less played and less TOI... Plus he makes Pacioretty produce at a very good clip, whatever we think that this guy or that guy “might” do the same with Pax remains purely speculative IMO. Pax/DD have been our most productive duo for 3 years. He obviously has down sides but his price tag shows that.
Personally I’d look at other area of improvement rather than focus on getting rid of DD and risking losing Pax production along with it… things like developing our #1 center, improving the D’s top 4 and getting good size productive wingers. From my point of view using either Eller or Pleks to adress those needs (and I prefer keeping Eller as the defnesive specialist since he has more size, jam and physical play) and puting Galchenyuk back at center.
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Post by Boston_Habs on Jan 28, 2014 14:24:52 GMT -5
The thing about DD is you get a secondary offensive 50ish pts center for 3.5mil... That's not expensive at all... it gives you good leeway to invest in other assets... And you don't have to invest a gazillion minutes in him either, he's currently 3rd in icetime among centers. Yes he's had a horrible season start but still he currently stands just 5 pts off Plekanec with 3 games less played and less TOI... Plus he makes Pacioretty produce at a very good clip, whatever we think that this guy or that guy “might” do the same with Pax remains purely speculative IMO. Pax/DD have been our most productive duo for 3 years. He obviously has down sides but his price tag shows that. Personally I’d look at other area of improvement rather than focus on getting rid of DD and risking losing Pax production along with it… things like developing our #1 center, improving the D’s top 4 and getting good size productive wingers. From my point of view using either Eller or Pleks to adress those needs (and I prefer keeping Eller as the defnesive specialist since he has more size, jam and physical play) and puting Galchenyuk back at center. I hear that.... I'm just skeptical of getting rid of Plekanec or Eller, who I think are better all around players than DD. I know he has the chemistry with Pacioretty, but it kind of goes against the grain of having a top 2 centre (which DD would be playing with Pax) with the limitations of a guy like DD. Problem is DD's contract will be hard to move without taking another bad contract back. Same with Bourque and maybe Briere. I'd much rather build a top 3 centre rotation of Plekanec, Galchenyuk, and Eller. I suppose if dealing Pleks could get a top 4 dman or a top 6 winger back we'd have to consider it, but he only has 2 years left on his deal after this year which would bring down his trade value. And I just don't think we've handled Eller very well in terms of grooming him as a centre. He has all the tools you look for in a versatile 3rd line C: size, strength, skating, puck skills, plays a solid two-way game.... not the offensive ceiling you'd like but given the choice between him and DD I'd take Eller hands down. At this point, we need to speed up Galchenyuk's progression when he gets back. Enough of the coddling. There are plenty of centers (Bergeron, Krejci, Skinner) who made the jump from junior to the NHL without spending a couple of seasons on the wing. Sometimes this organization is too stiff. 'We know Alex is a centre, but he still needs to learn, his time will come." Or "Leblanc needs to work on his production in Hamilton, while we sign stiffs like Danny Briere and George Parros to block his path." Or "PK needs to keep working hard, he'll get his contract eventually." One thing about struggling is it (should) give management more freedom to experiment. Play Galchenyuk at C when he gets back, find more ice time for Bournival, Leblanc, Beaulieu, and maybe Tinordi. They need to get a read on which players are keepers and/or have the best trade value.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jan 28, 2014 14:44:41 GMT -5
I am also in support of having a combo of Galchenyuk, Pleky and Eller as our top three centres. I do get the DD Patches duo, it actually has been our best for a while. However, this is a really big BUT here, maybe even two. First it stalls good, big, young centremen like Galchenyuk and Eller to learn their trade. Second, as good as DD is at finding Max the puck, the rest of his overall game is considerably lower than the younger two kids. He is far too easily knocked off the puck, and his biggest failing to me is he lacks even the remotest sense of hockey IQ in his own end. His missed checks, bad positioning, and lack of strength to retrieve pucks often end up costing us goals. That starts to wash out the nice feeds to Max. Let DD be the third guy on a Max line, they can still sit together on the bench after a shift. We are trying to build a team that can survive a long grind, which the playoffs are. DD just is not a guy to have as one of your top two centres to make that happen.
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Post by franko on Jan 28, 2014 15:59:56 GMT -5
I'd much rather build a top 3 centre rotation of Plekanec, Galchenyuk, and Eller. Eller's a centre? Galchy's a centre? whodathunk. next you'll be telling me that Bourque plays hard every night!
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Post by BadCompany on Jan 28, 2014 16:15:40 GMT -5
If we get embarrassed tonight then I think it's time to turf the old guard. Firing the coach is an option, but probably an unlikely one, and even if it does happen I'd still go through with this:
Bourque goes on waivers, and then to Hamilton. If somebody claims him, then great. If not, he's still available for trade, but he's not sucking up ice time in Montreal. I call Briere into my office and tell him he's next if he doesn't shape up. I don't need him to score a whack of points, but he damn well better look like he cares.
Gionta and Gorges are both traded. They represent the "leadership" of this group, and frankly speaking their leadership sucks. So I deal them. Both have value around the league, both bring essentially nothing to this team. Gorges can be replaced on a full-time basis by Beaulieu and/or Tinordi and Gionta by Leblanc. There may be some growing pains, the replacements may not be as good as either of the departed guys (yet?) but so what? We're shaking up the team here. I almost don't care what comes back, though for Gorges at least I think I would want a warm body. I like Marc Andre Cliche out of Colorado, as a defensive winger, with maybe a pick or two.
I trade Diaz for whatever. Pick probably.
Plekanec and Markov are on the market. I want a great return for either of these guys, and they aren't automatically traded in the way that Gorges and Gionta are, but I want their names on the market, pour encouragement.
Then I name PK captain of the team. Yeah, he has maturity issues, but we have enough freaking ambassadors on the payroll I'm sure one of them can mentor him on how to be a great captain. I'm sending a message that things are different now, there is a new philosophy in town. And it ain't a quiet one. The league thinks PK is too brash? Too emotional? Too cocky? Tell me again why this is a bad thing? Let's embrace this and build a team identify around it. Its time for the new guard.
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Post by blny on Jan 28, 2014 16:32:02 GMT -5
If we get embarrassed tonight then I think it's time to turf the old guard. Firing the coach is an option, but probably an unlikely one, and even if it does happen I'd still go through with this: Bourque goes on waivers, and then to Hamilton. If somebody claims him, then great. If not, he's still available for trade, but he's not sucking up ice time in Montreal. I call Briere into my office and tell him he's next if he doesn't shape up. I don't need him to score a whack of points, but he damn well better look like he cares. Gionta and Gorges are both traded. They represent the "leadership" of this group, and frankly speaking their leadership sucks. So I deal them. Both have value around the league, both bring essentially nothing to this team. Gorges can be replaced on a full-time basis by Beaulieu and/or Tinordi and Gionta by Leblanc. There may be some growing pains, the replacements may not be as good as either of the departed guys (yet?) but so what? We're shaking up the team here. I almost don't care what comes back, though for Gorges at least I think I would want a warm body. I like Marc Andre Cliche out of Colorado, as a defensive winger, with maybe a pick or two. I trade Diaz for whatever. Pick probably. Plekanec and Markov are on the market. I want a great return for either of these guys, and they aren't automatically traded in the way that Gorges and Gionta are, but I want their names on the market, pour encouragement. Then I name PK captain of the team. Yeah, he has maturity issues, but we have enough freaking ambassadors on the payroll I'm sure one of them can mentor him on how to be a great captain. I'm sending a message that things are different now, there is a new philosophy in town. And it ain't a quiet one. The league thinks PK is too brash? Too emotional? Too cocky? Tell me again why this is a bad thing? Let's embrace this and build a team identify around it. Its time for the new guard. With you all the way.
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Post by CentreHice on Jan 28, 2014 16:37:51 GMT -5
That's all I want.
Speed up the process...shrewdly.
My only caveat is that IF Therrien is indeed a huge problem...then he best be dealt with.
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Post by seventeen on Jan 28, 2014 16:51:44 GMT -5
I'd also put out Max and DD for trade. If I could get Evander Kane I'd do it. He is not a perimeter player, which Max sometimes falls into. He's also more belligerent than Max and we could use that.
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Post by Boston_Habs on Jan 28, 2014 16:52:39 GMT -5
If we get embarrassed tonight then I think it's time to turf the old guard. Firing the coach is an option, but probably an unlikely one, and even if it does happen I'd still go through with this: Bourque goes on waivers, and then to Hamilton. If somebody claims him, then great. If not, he's still available for trade, but he's not sucking up ice time in Montreal. I call Briere into my office and tell him he's next if he doesn't shape up. I don't need him to score a whack of points, but he damn well better look like he cares. Gionta and Gorges are both traded. They represent the "leadership" of this group, and frankly speaking their leadership sucks. So I deal them. Both have value around the league, both bring essentially nothing to this team. Gorges can be replaced on a full-time basis by Beaulieu and/or Tinordi and Gionta by Leblanc. There may be some growing pains, the replacements may not be as good as either of the departed guys (yet?) but so what? We're shaking up the team here. I almost don't care what comes back, though for Gorges at least I think I would want a warm body. I like Marc Andre Cliche out of Colorado, as a defensive winger, with maybe a pick or two. I trade Diaz for whatever. Pick probably. Plekanec and Markov are on the market. I want a great return for either of these guys, and they aren't automatically traded in the way that Gorges and Gionta are, but I want their names on the market, pour encouragement. Then I name PK captain of the team. Yeah, he has maturity issues, but we have enough freaking ambassadors on the payroll I'm sure one of them can mentor him on how to be a great captain. I'm sending a message that things are different now, there is a new philosophy in town. And it ain't a quiet one. The league thinks PK is too brash? Too emotional? Too cocky? Tell me again why this is a bad thing? Let's embrace this and build a team identify around it. Its time for the new guard. Can I get an AMEN!
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Post by CentreHice on Jan 28, 2014 16:58:28 GMT -5
Then I name PK captain of the team. Yeah, he has maturity issues, but we have enough freaking ambassadors on the payroll I'm sure one of them can mentor him on how to be a great captain. I'm sending a message that things are different now, there is a new philosophy in town. And it ain't a quiet one. The league thinks PK is too brash? Too emotional? Too cocky? Tell me again why this is a bad thing? Let's embrace this and build a team identify around it. Its time for the new guard. That's moving towards the Fergie Swagger...because an identity like that is gonna DEMAND toughness.
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Post by Doc Holliday on Jan 28, 2014 17:32:40 GMT -5
If we get embarrassed tonight then I think it's time to turf the old guard. Firing the coach is an option, but probably an unlikely one, and even if it does happen I'd still go through with this: Bourque goes on waivers, and then to Hamilton. If somebody claims him, then great. If not, he's still available for trade, but he's not sucking up ice time in Montreal. I call Briere into my office and tell him he's next if he doesn't shape up. I don't need him to score a whack of points, but he damn well better look like he cares. Gionta and Gorges are both traded. They represent the "leadership" of this group, and frankly speaking their leadership sucks. So I deal them. Both have value around the league, both bring essentially nothing to this team. Gorges can be replaced on a full-time basis by Beaulieu and/or Tinordi and Gionta by Leblanc. There may be some growing pains, the replacements may not be as good as either of the departed guys (yet?) but so what? We're shaking up the team here. I almost don't care what comes back, though for Gorges at least I think I would want a warm body. I like Marc Andre Cliche out of Colorado, as a defensive winger, with maybe a pick or two. I trade Diaz for whatever. Pick probably. Plekanec and Markov are on the market. I want a great return for either of these guys, and they aren't automatically traded in the way that Gorges and Gionta are, but I want their names on the market, pour encouragement. Then I name PK captain of the team. Yeah, he has maturity issues, but we have enough freaking ambassadors on the payroll I'm sure one of them can mentor him on how to be a great captain. I'm sending a message that things are different now, there is a new philosophy in town. And it ain't a quiet one. The league thinks PK is too brash? Too emotional? Too cocky? Tell me again why this is a bad thing? Let's embrace this and build a team identify around it. Its time for the new guard. Bang on. You never cut soon enough, you never cut deep enough... Veterans will pass on tradition. Winning ones and Losing ones. The "this is how we do it here kid" kinda thing. That's not just a "cliché", any real life company restructuring consultant will start by cuting the management team, especially the most experienced guys. That's not to say Pleks, Markov, Gorges, Gionta are not good players and heck they are probably great guys too.. But you can't change philosophy and mentality with guys who were the core of what your current mentality is... And the longer you wait... the more you risk that your next group will perpetuate what they "learned" from the previous group. You need to make a cut. Clean and clear. My leadership group would be Pacioretty/Subban/Prust/Gallagher. From a distance those are my leaders.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Jan 28, 2014 18:17:58 GMT -5
There are a lot of things that can be done, but is any GM foolish enough to take on Gionta, Briere or Bourque? Can we get a return for DD? I wouldn't give up Pacioretty for Kane, a good fast player for a trouble maker. I stick with character over disgruntled talent. After all the afoementioned trades we find ourselves with very little under contract and a myriad of holes to fill. I am tired of filling holes instead of aquiring quality. I still maintain hard work trumps talent. The Ducks are a TEAM, ,hard working, supportive of eachother, playing a system. They lack the talent of Detroit, Chicago or Pittsburg but are putting up more wins. It really does start with the GM and coach. Motivating 18 guys to play the way that Gallagher does. Trade away problems, asset management, identify components for the team and draft!! I thought Gainey may have been the answer but his last year was a disaster. We need to identify the best GM available from as broad a field of candidates as possible. Overall Bergy has made some mistakes but I haven't given up on him. Like Babe Ruth said, if you want home runs you have to accept strikeouts too. Therrien has lost the team, but you don't replace him just for the sake of replacing. You have to have the right replacement ready to sign. Nobody including Gretzky is untradeable; but I would try to hang on to Subban, Pacioretty, Gallagher Price and Galchenyuk. (Our fall from grace seems to coincide with the Galchy injury) I am not averse to bringing in some of our smaller in stature scoring stars from junior to replace bigger players like Moen that can't put the puck in the ocean from the end of a pier. A stopped clock is right twice a day. I think Fucale will be a great one as will Tinordi and Beaulieu. McCarron will never be the scorer Detroit picked five spots ahead of us. I would have paid dearly to move up and grab the only 50 goal scorer, but that's water over the bridge. Coach and GM of the Canadiens are the two best jobs in the world after playing for the Canadiens. Get the right candidates. I also like
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Post by Skilly on Jan 28, 2014 18:23:39 GMT -5
The thing about DD is you get a secondary offensive 50ish pts center for 3.5mil... That's not expensive at all... it gives you good leeway to invest in other assets... And you don't have to invest a gazillion minutes in him either, he's currently 3rd in icetime among centers. Yes he's had a horrible season start but still he currently stands just 5 pts off Plekanec with 3 games less played and less TOI... Plus he makes Pacioretty produce at a very good clip, whatever we think that this guy or that guy “might” do the same with Pax remains purely speculative IMO. Pax/DD have been our most productive duo for 3 years. He obviously has down sides but his price tag shows that. Personally I’d look at other area of improvement rather than focus on getting rid of DD and risking losing Pax production along with it… things like developing our #1 center, improving the D’s top 4 and getting good size productive wingers. From my point of view using either Eller or Pleks to adress those needs (and I prefer keeping Eller as the defnesive specialist since he has more size, jam and physical play) and puting Galchenyuk back at center. I don't get the Pacioretty / Desharnais duo chemistry. Cause it isn't true. Sure they score the most goals but that's because they play the most time together than any other duo, but are they in fact the MOST productive? This year Pacioretty has 5.8 goals per 60 minutes of ice time with Eller and Gallagher. It's only 2.8 with Desharnais and Gallagher. Last year Pacioretty had 5.6 goals per 60 minutes with Plekanec and Gionta. It was 3.8 with Desharnais and Gallagher , his next best line. Two seasons ago Pacioretty had 6.7 goals per 60 minutes with Desharnais and Kostitsyn, but it was 5.3 with Plekanec and Cole. I don't know why Pacioretty HAS to be paired with Desharnais, cause the stats show that Desharnais is completely ineffective WITHOUT Pacioretty, but Pacioretty is just as effective WITHOUT Desharnais. For the past three years when Desharnais isn't paired with Pacioretty his lines average about 1.6 goals per 60 minutes, with his best being with Cammalleri and Cole (both gone). The three worst lines we have this year ALL have Desharnais on them.
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Post by blny on Jan 28, 2014 18:40:44 GMT -5
No reason Gionta couldn't garner interest from a top team looking for some playoff depth. If guys like Clowe and Clarkson garner interest at the deadline so should Gionta. He's got the rings and playoff performances to back it up.
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Post by Polarice on Jan 28, 2014 18:52:02 GMT -5
I think I would trade anyone who is under 6 ft. including Gally....he has heart but I'm tired of watching smurfs play. Actually I would trade everyone except Subban, Price, Prust, Eller, Plekanec(even though he is under 6), Galchenyuk and Pacioretty. Not a total rebuild, we have the core, just gotta build around them.
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Post by Boston_Habs on Jan 28, 2014 19:57:03 GMT -5
Gionta is the easiest guy to move, IMO, just given his contract status. The perfect rental for a contender looking to add depth and leadership to the team.
I also think Gorges could be moved as well, but he has a heavier contract at $3.9 million for the next 4 years. That's a lot of money for a glorified 3rd pair dman, but Josh brings that steady performance and character that teams like. And with the cap going up, his cap hit isn't too big. Plus moving him opens up a badly needed spot in the rotation for Beaulieu or Tinordi. It's time.
But I don't want to have to take another teams garbage contract off their hands unless its really short money. Ideally you want a team that can absorb a guy like Gorges' contract without having to send us back their own dead weight.
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Post by GNick99 on Jan 30, 2014 12:16:27 GMT -5
Gionta is the easiest guy to move, IMO, just given his contract status. The perfect rental for a contender looking to add depth and leadership to the team. I also think Gorges could be moved as well, but he has a heavier contract at $3.9 million for the next 4 years. That's a lot of money for a glorified 3rd pair dman, but Josh brings that steady performance and character that teams like. And with the cap going up, his cap hit isn't too big. Plus moving him opens up a badly needed spot in the rotation for Beaulieu or Tinordi. It's time. But I don't want to have to take another teams garbage contract off their hands unless its really short money. Ideally you want a team that can absorb a guy like Gorges' contract without having to send us back their own dead weight. Gionta maybe hardest to move...he has NMC
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Post by Willie Dog on Jan 30, 2014 14:01:32 GMT -5
Gionta is the easiest guy to move, IMO, just given his contract status. The perfect rental for a contender looking to add depth and leadership to the team. I also think Gorges could be moved as well, but he has a heavier contract at $3.9 million for the next 4 years. That's a lot of money for a glorified 3rd pair dman, but Josh brings that steady performance and character that teams like. And with the cap going up, his cap hit isn't too big. Plus moving him opens up a badly needed spot in the rotation for Beaulieu or Tinordi. It's time. But I don't want to have to take another teams garbage contract off their hands unless its really short money. Ideally you want a team that can absorb a guy like Gorges' contract without having to send us back their own dead weight. Gionta maybe hardest to move...he has NMC If Gio has a crack at another cup, he'll be happy to leave the SS. Minnow
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Post by habernac on Jan 30, 2014 14:03:28 GMT -5
I think I would trade anyone who is under 6 ft. including Gally....he has heart but I'm tired of watching smurfs play. Actually I would trade everyone except Subban, Price, Prust, Eller, Plekanec(even though he is under 6), Galchenyuk and Pacioretty. Not a total rebuild, we have the core, just gotta build around them. I never get tired of effective smurfs. Keep Gallagher.
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Post by CentreHice on Feb 3, 2014 9:20:47 GMT -5
I wonder if Bergevin reads this kind of report...i.e. what BH has been posting. I guess the questions are: What percentage of these scores is attributable to Therrien's coaching as opposed to the talent....and could a better coach get more out of this team? ================================================================= Eyes on the PrizeCanadiens fans have been fooled.It happens to every fanbase, and there's really no shame in it. Fans and media continue to point to Montreal's record, even as it continues to get worse, and say that Michel Therrien isn't doing a bad job. The fact is, the record is highly inflated due to Carey Price being impossibly good, and a 10 game streak that the Canadiens didn't earn, so much as got lucky during.
The signs of struggling were there in November, which we can see by taking a look at the Habs' 10 game rolling average Corsi for percentage in tied, and close situations.When you look at last season, you can see why the Canadiens were winning. They consistently outplayed teams in close and tied situations, creating more scoring chances and as a result, outscoring opponents and winning games. The strong play continued through the playoffs and into the 2013-14 season, then abruptly collapsed into an elevator shaft. Montreal's possession game continues to trend downward, with their last 10 games being the worst of all, clocking in at an abysmal 41.9% Corsi while the score is close, and 41.6% when the score is tied.
You don't need possession numbers to see that something is wrong. The Canadiens can't generate offense to save their lives, and they get trapped in their own zone constantly. So why did it change in the first place? The previous plan was working well, right?Panic in small samplesMichel Therrien is not known for being calm. The new version of Therrien is certainly calmer than his two previous coaching stints, but he lost his composure after game one of the playoffs last season, and those 4 losses in 5 games were likely the first strike against the system he was running.
Let's keep in mind that nothing here is conclusive, but in trying to figure out why the change was made, we have to consider that Therrien doesn't seem to have the greatest grasp of what creates wins in the NHL, and whether what's happening is sustainable. His entire career is evidence of that.
Looking for some reasoning behind the change, my first instinct was to look at even strength shooting percentage, and as it turns out, there's a strong correlation. Last season the Canadiens were an above average shooting team, which along with their dominant possession performance at even strength led to them being the third highest scoring team in the NHL, and the 5th highest at even strength.
This is why I find it so laughable when Therrien's defenders claim that he's getting the most he possibly can out of the roster he has. This same coach with this same roster had one of the best teams in the National Hockey League. Since the system change, he's run one of the worst.
The 10 game streak in November that everyone keeps raving about as proof of Therrien's coaching prowess was nothing but a run on shooting percentage while continuing to play poorly. In actual fact, that 10 game streak is likely the worst possible thing that could have happened to the Habs this year. Either it extended Therrien's lifespan as coach of the Canadiens, or validated a system change that has been wholly brutal in every other instance.
We can't know for sure that this is what led to the drastic return to Therrien's bread and butter dump and chase system, but I don't think it's an unreasonable observation to make.========================================================== Here's another article from the same writer, Andrew Berkshire, on Therrien's career.
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Post by Willie Dog on Feb 3, 2014 11:02:49 GMT -5
I wonder if Bergevin reads this kind of report...i.e. what BH has been posting. I guess the questions are: What percentage of these scores is attributable to Therrien's coaching as opposed to the talent....and could a better coach get more out of this team? ================================================================= Eyes on the PrizeCanadiens fans have been fooled.It happens to every fanbase, and there's really no shame in it. Fans and media continue to point to Montreal's record, even as it continues to get worse, and say that Michel Therrien isn't doing a bad job. The fact is, the record is highly inflated due to Carey Price being impossibly good, and a 10 game streak that the Canadiens didn't earn, so much as got lucky during.
The signs of struggling were there in November, which we can see by taking a look at the Habs' 10 game rolling average Corsi for percentage in tied, and close situations.When you look at last season, you can see why the Canadiens were winning. They consistently outplayed teams in close and tied situations, creating more scoring chances and as a result, outscoring opponents and winning games. The strong play continued through the playoffs and into the 2013-14 season, then abruptly collapsed into an elevator shaft. Montreal's possession game continues to trend downward, with their last 10 games being the worst of all, clocking in at an abysmal 41.9% Corsi while the score is close, and 41.6% when the score is tied.
You don't need possession numbers to see that something is wrong. The Canadiens can't generate offense to save their lives, and they get trapped in their own zone constantly. So why did it change in the first place? The previous plan was working well, right?Panic in small samplesMichel Therrien is not known for being calm. The new version of Therrien is certainly calmer than his two previous coaching stints, but he lost his composure after game one of the playoffs last season, and those 4 losses in 5 games were likely the first strike against the system he was running.
Let's keep in mind that nothing here is conclusive, but in trying to figure out why the change was made, we have to consider that Therrien doesn't seem to have the greatest grasp of what creates wins in the NHL, and whether what's happening is sustainable. His entire career is evidence of that.
Looking for some reasoning behind the change, my first instinct was to look at even strength shooting percentage, and as it turns out, there's a strong correlation. Last season the Canadiens were an above average shooting team, which along with their dominant possession performance at even strength led to them being the third highest scoring team in the NHL, and the 5th highest at even strength.
This is why I find it so laughable when Therrien's defenders claim that he's getting the most he possibly can out of the roster he has. This same coach with this same roster had one of the best teams in the National Hockey League. Since the system change, he's run one of the worst.
The 10 game streak in November that everyone keeps raving about as proof of Therrien's coaching prowess was nothing but a run on shooting percentage while continuing to play poorly. In actual fact, that 10 game streak is likely the worst possible thing that could have happened to the Habs this year. Either it extended Therrien's lifespan as coach of the Canadiens, or validated a system change that has been wholly brutal in every other instance.
We can't know for sure that this is what led to the drastic return to Therrien's bread and butter dump and chase system, but I don't think it's an unreasonable observation to make.========================================================== Here's another article from the same writer, Andrew Berkshire, on Therrien's career. Thanks for posting CH. I read EOTP regularily and read this and thought it was interesting. Was going to post it but got busy and forgot about it. It is amazing how it shows the dump and chase doesn't work for this team. Regardless we ain't gong anywhere with this coach or this team as it is currently configured. I'll watch the games but I will not put any more emotion into it until MB makes wholesale changes.
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Post by stoat on Feb 3, 2014 11:09:34 GMT -5
I'd also put out Max and DD for trade. If I could get Evander Kane I'd do it. He is not a perimeter player, which Max sometimes falls into. He's also more belligerent than Max and we could use that. I disagree with your suggestion. E Kane isn't as good a sniper as Pacioretty, a legitimate power forward, and if you pair Kane with DD you'd get very little production from their line. Kane's "belligerence" wouldn't make up for it on a team that doesn't score many ES goals. Ironically, a trade of Pacioretty + DD would bring back less quality than Max alone because the other team wouldn't really want to take on DD and would insist on dumping another dud on the Habs in the deal. What would I do instead? It's a bit late to try to overhaul the team for this season's playoffs, so I'd try to trade some veterans whose contracts are about to expire for draft choices or prospects before the deadline. I leave it to you to fill in the blanks.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Feb 3, 2014 11:19:31 GMT -5
I'd also put out Max and DD for trade. If I could get Evander Kane I'd do it. He is not a perimeter player, which Max sometimes falls into. He's also more belligerent than Max and we could use that. I disagree with your suggestion. E Kane isn't as good a sniper as Pacioretty, a legitimate power forward, and if you pair Kane with DD you'd get very little production from their line. Kane's "belligerence" wouldn't make up for it on a team that doesn't score many ES goals. Ironically, a trade of Pacioretty + DD would bring back less quality than Max alone because the other team wouldn't really want to take on DD and would insist on dumping another dud on the Habs in the deal. What would I do instead? It's a bit late to try to overhaul the team for this season's playoffs, so I'd try to trade some veterans whose contracts are about to expire for draft choices or prospects before the deadline. I leave it to you to fill in the blanks. Doesn't happen often, but I agree 100%.
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Post by duster on Feb 3, 2014 11:25:54 GMT -5
The EOTP numbers are hardly surprising and I think that it validates what a lot of us have been seeing this season. The team is simply not built for dump and chase Therrien style. Sadly, this is also reflected in Hamilton where another team of smurfs is being asked to play the same system. It may not be advisable to fire both Therrien and Lefevbre during the season, but the team and farm team goes nowhere with those two at the helm. Start with a coaching change and I think things get better.
First thing though is tear down that ridiculous "no excuses" sign in the locker room. It's a load of codswallop.
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Post by christrpn on Feb 16, 2014 5:32:09 GMT -5
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Post by jkr on Feb 16, 2014 7:35:43 GMT -5
Hard to tell. He apparently wouldn't trade Bourque for Parenteau but he will trade Briere? And throw in a pick to try & rectify the mistake of signing him in the first place?
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Post by christrpn on Feb 16, 2014 8:39:18 GMT -5
Hard to tell. He apparently wouldn't trade Bourque for Parenteau but he will trade Briere? And throw in a pick to try & rectify the mistake of signing him in the first place? I heard he would have to retain some of Bourques' salary and throw in a prospect as well. Not worth it considering Paranteau makes more money.
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Post by 24in93 on Feb 16, 2014 9:01:23 GMT -5
He should trade Subban for Hamhuis straight up apparently.
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Post by jkr on Feb 16, 2014 9:26:35 GMT -5
He should trade Subban for Hamhuis straight up apparently. Good one.
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