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Subban
Jul 9, 2014 16:02:38 GMT -5
Post by Boston_Habs on Jul 9, 2014 16:02:38 GMT -5
Well those are interesting deals for Toews and Kane, breaking the $10 million mark. In general elite forwards will get bigger contracts/cap hits than elite dmen, but how much of a discount from that should Subban get? 20%, 10%?
I was thinking 8 years and $64 million, but I think this is going to end up with a '9' at the front. Hope that bridge deal was worth it, Bergevin.
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Subban
Jul 9, 2014 16:08:30 GMT -5
Post by christrpn on Jul 9, 2014 16:08:30 GMT -5
Well those are interesting deals for Toews and Kane, breaking the $10 million mark. In general elite forwards will get bigger contracts/cap hits than elite dmen, but how much of a discount from that should Subban get? 20%, 10%? I was thinking 8 years and $64 million, but I think this is going to end up with a '9' at the front. Hope that bridge deal was worth it, Bergevin. How much do you throw at Galchenyuk and Gallagher next year? Galchenyuk has show great potential, do you give him a 5-6 yr $30-36M contract?
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Subban
Jul 9, 2014 18:48:32 GMT -5
Post by jkr on Jul 9, 2014 18:48:32 GMT -5
Well those are interesting deals for Toews and Kane, breaking the $10 million mark. In general elite forwards will get bigger contracts/cap hits than elite dmen, but how much of a discount from that should Subban get? 20%, 10%? I was thinking 8 years and $64 million, but I think this is going to end up with a '9' at the front. Hope that bridge deal was worth it, Bergevin. Someone is going to have to explain this to me. What is the actual difference? It's difficult to tell because I don't know what Subban wanted 2 years ago. Do we guess & say he would have signed a 5 year/30 million deal back then with a 6 mill. cap hit? If so that would have made him a UFA in 3 years time in a new era of rising salary caps & steeply escalating salaries. Assuming his career continues to rise what does he get then - a 28 year old with the leverage of UFA - 10/12 million? Either he gets his big payday now or maybe a few years down the road. What am I missing here?
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Subban
Jul 9, 2014 19:06:33 GMT -5
Post by Boston_Habs on Jul 9, 2014 19:06:33 GMT -5
I think we could have bought out a few of PKs UFA years in the same way we did with Pacioretty, who signed a VERY team friendly deal in light of his production and that cap hit gives Berg flexibility to do other things. Patches will still get a bite at the UFA apple in a few years, but in the meantime we get him in his prime at a cheap price.
It's speculation on my part, but I think we could have signed PK to something like a 6-year, $36 million deal 2 years ago that would have given Subban some real security and STILL given him a chance to hit UFA before age 30. I don't think giving Subban that contract would have limited Bergevin's options last year or his year except it probably meant that he couldn't sign Briere. But the $3m savings between what we could be paying Subban compared to what we WILL be paying him, $9 million, is real money that can be used elsewhere. I just think it didn't have to come to this. Even though PK isn't technically a UFA, he is for all intents and purposes. Good GMs take a long view and lock up core young players before they get too expensive. He dd it for Pacioretty and there was no reason he couldn't have done it for Subban, but he decided to put off the big contract. In the end I think PK will sign here but it will be for much longer and much more dollars. It's hard to quantify the value of a missed opportunity, but I think Berg blew this one.
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Subban
Jul 10, 2014 6:11:34 GMT -5
Post by christrpn on Jul 10, 2014 6:11:34 GMT -5
I think we could have bought out a few of PKs UFA years in the same way we did with Pacioretty, who signed a VERY team friendly deal in light of his production and that cap hit gives Berg flexibility to do other things. Patches will still get a bite at the UFA apple in a few years, but in the meantime we get him in his prime at a cheap price. It's speculation on my part, but I think we could have signed PK to something like a 6-year, $36 million deal 2 years ago that would have given Subban some real security and STILL given him a chance to hit UFA before age 30. I don't think giving Subban that contract would have limited Bergevin's options last year or his year except it probably meant that he couldn't sign Briere. But the $3m savings between what we could be paying Subban compared to what we WILL be paying him, $9 million, is real money that can be used elsewhere. I just think it didn't have to come to this. Even though PK isn't technically a UFA, he is for all intents and purposes. Good GMs take a long view and lock up core young players before they get too expensive. He dd it for Pacioretty and there was no reason he couldn't have done it for Subban, but he decided to put off the big contract. In the end I think PK will sign here but it will be for much longer and much more dollars. It's hard to quantify the value of a missed opportunity, but I think Berg blew this one. Had this argument with someone on twitter about Galchenyuk. You can't throw $6M at a young player coming out of his ELC just because he shows potential. We all knew PK had the talent to be a star 2 yrs ago but to be perfectly honest he hadn't done anything to merit the big payday guys like Weber and Chara were getting. I don't believe in paying guys for potential. Had MB given PK 6 years at $36M and PK flopped, that $6M would be a BIG hindrance to the team, much more than the $3M more he's going to get now. The advantage now is that, not only are we signing a norris trophy winner, he is more mature, and he will sign a long term which more of it will be in his UFA period.
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Subban
Jul 10, 2014 8:01:45 GMT -5
Post by BadCompany on Jul 10, 2014 8:01:45 GMT -5
At the time Subban was strongly rumoured to want Drew Doughty money, with those rumours coming from the respected Dreger/Mackenzie like sources. Doughty signed an eight year deal, with a $7 million cap hit. Would Subban have accepted a lower, $6 million cap-hit? Perhaps, but there was never any indication that was going to be the case. Could have happened I suppose, but without being in the room it's really hard to say.
We also have to keep in mind that the cap had dropped significantly at that time, coming out of the lockout. Sure, the money saved went to Briere in the second year who turned out to be a bit of a dud (but not as much as some would say in my opinion) but that's largely irrelevant. That the extra money was not wisely spent does not take away from the fact that it was extra money. That's like saying "I wish I had never gotten that inheritance because I invested it in Blackberry and now it's not worth anything." It's still found money, right?
So now we're going to pay more, but at a time with a sky-rocketing cap (which only figures to keep going up, in my opinion), and with fewer bloated contracts on the books (Gionta, Gorges, Briere, Kaberle, Gomez). It's not going to be as painful as it would have been to sign him to Doughty-like money two years ago, in my opinion.
I wouldn't have been upset with a long-term contract for Subban two years ago, but I don't think he would have signed it to the cap-friendly terms we think he would have, nor do I think its going to be as devastating to sign him to a bigger contract now.
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Subban
Jul 10, 2014 10:04:21 GMT -5
Post by Doc Holliday on Jul 10, 2014 10:04:21 GMT -5
Bridge contracts are not a bad thing but at the same time it shouldn’t be a “company policy” thing where everyone has to go through this. I think you have to recognize where a player stands at the end of his ELC and where the projected revenue (and cap) is going. In a case like Subban, 2 years ago he was already the #1 dmen of this team, anybody could see that he was going to be a special player… it was also written the sky that the revenue (and cap) were going to climb rapidly (they always do!). Signing Subban long term to Doughty-like figures was not a big gamble to take back then. If you ask me all these “prove yourself”, “we think there is maturity issues” talk was hogwash…Berg wanted to save coins short term to have flexibility, that’s it. And both Berg and Molson absolutely knew that this short term relief was going to cost them big later on… It’s his choice. But how would we feel right now with Subban signed for 6 more years at 7mil…
…and then there is the “how” that bridge contract was handled. Basically “take it or stay home” for one of the most important player of the team at the time… while most fans love it when a GM “stick it” to a player when it comes to money, what goes around comes around, Subban/Meehan were forced to swallow that bitter pill back then… you can be sure Berg’s not gonna get one bit of slack this time.
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Subban
Jul 10, 2014 10:37:16 GMT -5
Post by blny on Jul 10, 2014 10:37:16 GMT -5
Galchenyuk is a long way from a bridge deal, and even further from a 6 year $30 million deal. He can be qualified a couple of times without a hint of worry. I want a full year of him at center, producing, before big money gets shelled out.
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Subban
Jul 10, 2014 12:10:18 GMT -5
Post by christrpn on Jul 10, 2014 12:10:18 GMT -5
Galchenyuk is a long way from a bridge deal, and even further from a 6 year $30 million deal. He can be qualified a couple of times without a hint of worry. I want a full year of him at center, producing, before big money gets shelled out. Agreed
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