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Post by UberCranky on Jul 17, 2014 12:58:48 GMT -5
This is a thread that I never thought would ever happen, but given that we have no news which means it not going well, then might as well speculate. If push come st shove and PK wants north of 9 million or MORE, then I'm prepared to trade him.
Unless I'm wrong, we can only give him a two year contract in arbitration and let's say that in the 7 million range, then the other side of that is going to be at least 10 million FOR SURE.
1..So do you still do the deal and keep him?
2..Do you trade him? What do you think he's worth?
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Jul 17, 2014 13:10:25 GMT -5
This is a thread that I never thought would ever happen, but given that we have no news which means it not going well, then might as well speculate. If push come st shove and PK wants north of 9 million or MORE, then I'm prepared to trade him. Unless I'm wrong, we can only give him a two year contract in arbitration and let's say that in the 7 million range, then the other side of that is going to be at least 10 million FOR SURE. 1..So do you still do the deal and keep him? 2..Do you trade him? What do you think he's worth? Don't think it will come to that. I would take Stamkos. Crosby and Malkin are older and aren't on the ice for 26 minutes per game. I don't blame Bergevin if Subban refuses to sign for less than $9 million. If Subban signs long term he will miss out on bigger opportunities in a few years when the revenues and cap go up. A two year deal works for me. In two years he will be a free agent and will get what he deserves. At that point we still have a shot at signing him. There is no question that financial advisors realize that taxes in Quebec make a huge difference. Habs are at a big disadvantage in that regard.
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Post by jkr on Jul 17, 2014 13:58:18 GMT -5
NO.Going to arbitration and taking a 2 year deal makes no sense. Teams that trade guys like Subban never get close to what these type of players are worth. You end up with bits & pieces, wannabees and futures. Letting him go as a UFA? Really? That would be a disater & continue the cycle of mediocrity this team has been in for years. The Canadiens aren't the farm team for the rest of the NHL. Intersting article on the tax situation. Some surprises here - especially the situation with the Alberta teams. Still don't expect to see players flocking there. www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2013/10/01/u-s-tax-changes-level-the-playing-field-for-canadian-nhl-teams/
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Post by Doc Holliday on Jul 17, 2014 14:01:57 GMT -5
Subban will, IMO, easily get 7.5/yr for 2 years in arbitration. That’s the absolute floor so if Berg wants to buy UFA years on top of that on a long term contract, the number can only go up. If Bergevin is presently lower than that he is delusional.
Given what Toews and Kane just signed, Subban can’t ask for more than 10mil or else he’s delusional…
So between 7.5 and 10, that gives us a 2.5M negotiation fork. If both parties are reasonable, we meet halfway and boom: 8.75M/yr. …BUT… last time around Bergevin who then held all the cards, decided he would not negotiate and simply impose HIS terms on PK. So don’t expect PK this time around to do any favors to Bergevin... PK was underpaid by about 3M/yr for the last 2 years, so he should look for a 6mil payback in this contract. 6mil over 8years, that’s 750K/yr. Add that 750K on the 8.75 and that’s 9.5M for 8 years.
Of course you keep him. He’s a franchise dmen… We are never going to get equal value by trading him… we would end up again trading a warship for 3-4 rowboats. The perfect plan for another 10 years of mediocrity in order to save about 1mil/yr
I'd much rather overpay exceptional players like PK Subban, than guys like Gionta, Bourque, Moen, Gomez, Brière, Gorges who through the years were ALL overpaid and got us nowhere.
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Post by Andrew on Jul 17, 2014 14:07:19 GMT -5
This is a thread that I never thought would ever happen, but given that we have no news which means it not going well, then might as well speculate. If push come st shove and PK wants north of 9 million or MORE, then I'm prepared to trade him. Unless I'm wrong, we can only give him a two year contract in arbitration and let's say that in the 7 million range, then the other side of that is going to be at least 10 million FOR SURE. 1..So do you still do the deal and keep him? 2..Do you trade him? What do you think he's worth? I don't know that it's valid to assume that things aren't going well due to the lack of news. For all we know they could have agreement in principle on a shorter term deal, but are still in discussions around long term options. All that lack of news means is that both sides have agreed to be tight lipped about it. I expect that something will get done in the 8 to 8.5 range. If worst came to worst, however, and we had to deal him I'd want an up and coming replacement for Subban (Trouba maybe?). So Subban for Trouba and Kane is my proposal.
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Post by jkr on Jul 17, 2014 14:11:11 GMT -5
Subban will, IMO, easily get 7.5/yr for 2 years in arbitration. That’s the absolute floor so if Berg wants to buy UFA years on top of that on a long term contract, the number can only go up. If Bergevin is presently lower than that he is delusional. Given what Toews and Kane just signed, Subban can’t ask for more than 10mil or else he’s delusional… So between 7.5 and 10, that gives us a 2.5M negotiation fork. If both parties are reasonable, we meet halfway and boom: 8.75M/yr. …BUT… last time around Bergevin who then held all the cards, decided he would not negotiate and simply impose HIS terms on PK. So don’t expect PK this time around to do any favors to Bergevin... PK was underpaid by about 3M/yr for the last 2 years, so he should look for a 6mil payback in this contract. 6mil over 8years, that’s 750K/yr. Add that 750K on the 8.75 and that’s 9.5M for 8 years. Of course you keep him. He’s a franchise dmen… We are never going to get equal value by trading him… we would end up again trading a warship for 3-4 rowboats. The perfect plan for another 10 years of mediocrity in order to save about 1mil/yr I'd much rather overpay exceptional players like PK Subban, than guys like Gionta, Bourque, Moen, Gomez, Brière, Gorges who through the years were ALL overpaid and got us nowhere. Love that warship/ rowboat analogy Doc. An oldie but a goodie.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 17, 2014 14:33:45 GMT -5
I was wondering when this thread would get started ... Of course you keep him. He’s a franchise dmen… We are never going to get equal value by trading him… we would end up again trading a warship for 3-4 rowboats. The perfect plan for another 10 years of mediocrity in order to save about 1mil/yr The only way Berg trades Subban is if John Tavares comes back the other way ... as you said, it won't happen ... there must be a lot of GMs watching to see how this plays out starting from the bridge contract of two years ago to the present ... did Berg originally have the cap space to make that happen a few years ago? ... if he did, then how would the lineup have been affected? ... doesn't matter ... Subban has a Norris Trophy on his résumé now ... he may be missing a Cup, for the time being, but I can see this young man with a Cup in his future ... I just hope it's in Montreal ... yes, I'd re-sign the guy ... like you said, the high-side of $8 million/year would probably get it done ... the term? Minimum six years I'd hope for ... Cheers.
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Post by franko on Jul 17, 2014 14:47:13 GMT -5
Subban will, IMO, easily get 7.5/yr for 2 years in arbitration. That’s the absolute floor so if Berg wants to buy UFA years on top of that on a long term contract, the number can only go up. If Bergevin is presently lower than that he is delusional. Given what Toews and Kane just signed, Subban can’t ask for more than 10mil or else he’s delusional… So between 7.5 and 10, that gives us a 2.5M negotiation fork. If both parties are reasonable, we meet halfway and boom: 8.75M/yr. …BUT… last time around Bergevin who then held all the cards, decided he would not negotiate and simply impose HIS terms on PK. So don’t expect PK this time around to do any favors to Bergevin... PK was underpaid by about 3M/yr for the last 2 years, so he should look for a 6mil payback in this contract. 6mil over 8years, that’s 750K/yr. Add that 750K on the 8.75 and that’s 9.5M for 8 years. Of course you keep him. He’s a franchise dmen… We are never going to get equal value by trading him… we would end up again trading a warship for 3-4 rowboats. The perfect plan for another 10 years of mediocrity in order to save about 1mil/yr I'd much rather overpay exceptional players like PK Subban, than guys like Gionta, Bourque, Moen, Gomez, Brière, Gorges who through the years were ALL overpaid and got us nowhere. Love that warship/ rowboat analogy Doc. An oldie but a goodie. hopefully PK doesn't torpedo anything decent * that might be offered. *of course, decent is in the eye of the beholder
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Post by GNick99 on Jul 17, 2014 14:55:30 GMT -5
No, as we seen with Chelios and Roy. Just to hard to find stars. Can't replace him.
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Post by Polarice on Jul 17, 2014 15:46:00 GMT -5
If the Hawks can pay their guys 10.5, we can pay ours 9.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 17, 2014 16:10:20 GMT -5
Love that warship/ rowboat analogy Doc. An oldie but a goodie. hopefully PK doesn't torpedo anything decent * that might be offered. *of course, decent is in the eye of the beholder I really hope we don't hear: * It'$ out of my hand$ now, or * I'm doing what'$ be$t for the league. Seriously, my gut feel used to be that it won't get to arbitration ... but as time continues to tick down, I'm becoming less and less sure ... one thing I'm fairly sure about ... both Subban and Bergevin, are being scrutinized right now ... there are a lot of side issues at work here, too ... does Montreal have the stones to sign superstars ... is Subban willing to consider the bigger picture, which just might include a Cup ... for me, anyway, this is the bottom line for Subban ... I guess that also puts me in Bergevin's camp, too ... Cheers. Edit: Thank$ Earl McRae
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Post by BadCompany on Jul 17, 2014 16:24:57 GMT -5
I would expect that this will go right down to the wire. It's a game of chicken, and the cars aren't even on the road yet, never mind in any serious danger of causing a wreck. If it gets signed I would expect that it will be done at the very last minute.
Having said that, would going to arbitration and getting him signed to a two year deal really be all that bad? Especially if it's a reasonable (i.e. cheap) deal? Yeah, we antagonize him as he heads into UFA in a couple of years, but we'd still have two more years to extend him. Lots can happen in that time frame, and one more day for me is one less day for my enemy. Yes, we run the risk of losing him, but two years is a long time to work something out.
I hope it doesn't come to that, and I don't think it will, but there are worse things than having two more years to negotiate another long term extension.
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Post by christrpn on Jul 17, 2014 17:18:07 GMT -5
I can't help but be reminded about the Colorado/ROR saga. Last contract negotiations went to arbitration and now it seems to be going in the same sense. Colorado and ROR are going to have an ugly divorce and I'm afraid Habs/Subban are going in the same direction.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 17, 2014 18:08:37 GMT -5
I hope it doesn't come to that, and I don't think it will, but there are worse things than having two more years to negotiate another long term extension. The only concern I'd have with this scenario would be if Subban wins another Norris (or two) ... add a Cup to that (all supposition, sure) and Bergevin may not have any choice but to unload the only superstar we've had in Montreal since Patrick Roy ... Cheers.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Jul 17, 2014 18:30:45 GMT -5
I hope it doesn't come to that, and I don't think it will, but there are worse things than having two more years to negotiate another long term extension. The only concern I'd have with this scenario would be if Subban wins another Norris (or two) ... add a Cup to that (all supposition, sure) and Bergevin may not have any choice but to unload the only superstar we've had in Montreal since Patrick Roy ... Cheers. I don't think it's a bad thing for Subban to win another two Norris trophies. If he does and becomes a free agent we open the wallet and give him what he deserves. He will have earned it. From Subban's perspective, he will probably be worth a lot more in two years so why sign an 8 year deal for $8 million a year. In two years he might get $11 million a year, maybe even from the Hab's. I don't think the cap or salaries will go down in 2 years. From Bergys perspective, pay for performance, not potential. Two years at $7 million a year is a good deal.
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Post by christrpn on Jul 17, 2014 19:03:57 GMT -5
pay for performance, not potential. People have a hard time understanding that concept
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Post by sergejean on Jul 17, 2014 20:31:17 GMT -5
I think MB playing hard ball with Subban two years ago was the right thing to do. Not so much because of Subban himself but to set the tone as to how he intents to manage the team's salary structure. I expect Gallagher and Galchenyuk to go through a similar bridge deal process in the future and I'm fine with this approach.
Now, having said that, I expect MB to sign Subban long term (6-8 years) now that he proved his worth. There is no doubt in my mind that as much as Subban loves to talk, he certainly walks the walk. Anywhere between 7.5M to 9.5M would be alright in my opinion.
Any player can be traded but I would prefer we keep Subban. He is talented, spectacular, well spoken and he CARES.
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Post by blny on Jul 17, 2014 21:05:00 GMT -5
I wouldn't trade him because I believe he's truly near the top of the league. Top 3, top 5. In that area, and he will be for a long time. Stud defenders like him don't grow on trees, and you need them to win. For all those reason, I'm not even going to contemplate what he might be worth in trade.
I'm in the camp that believed the 2 year bridge deal was the right move. His play before was good, but erratic. He had some maturing to do. He stepped up his game during that contract. I believe they'll get a long term deal done. I think Habs will use Doughty as the benchmark. He signed that 8 year $56 million deal the summer before his first cup win. The cap was $64.3 million during the 2011-12 season. That equates to 10.88% of the cap ceiling at the time of signing. Under the new cap ceiling, that's roughly $7.5 million a season.
According to tax-brackets.org, Doughty, as a single California resident (don't know if he's single), would pay $2,897,097.55 in Federal tax, and $847,411.56 in state tax. His take home is $3,255,490.89. That's without putting in deductions like union dues etc.
Living in Quebec, Doughty would be faced with 25% provincial income tax, and 29% + $28,880 federal (based on his salary). On the same contract as Doughty, he'd face federal taxes of 2,019,318.7 and provincial taxes of $1,750,000 for a total of $3,769,318.7. Therefore, his net income would be $3,230,681.3. The net income different between California living and Quebec living is only about $25,000.
$7.5 million over the same number of years should have been enough. Unfortunately, Phaneuf's contract is for that much, and Subban is significantly better. Phaneuf's deal is the one Meehan will use.
Given that position, and the fact there's no one in the organization that can replace, and few in the league that could, $8 million is where I think he'll slot in. I would do 8x8. He's 25. He'll be 33 when it expires. At that point, provided he's still with the club (and he should be), you are in a position to re-sign him to another deal without having to worry about the 35 and over situation.
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Post by jkr on Jul 17, 2014 21:24:20 GMT -5
pay for performance, not potential. People have a hard time understanding that concept He has performed since he signed that last deal & his performance has been near the top of the league. It's not potential - it's actual talent.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 17, 2014 21:56:34 GMT -5
People have a hard time understanding that concept He has performed since he signed that last deal & his performance has been near the top of the league. It's not potential - it's actual talent. He's proven a lot in those two years and not just on the ice ... blny pointed out that he has matured over that time too ... his compete level is probably the standard for many teams ... and as far as potential goes, I'd bank on PK getting better ... but if they want to pay him for his performance, alone, that's fine ... he's proven a lot ... Cheers.
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Post by franko on Jul 17, 2014 22:21:36 GMT -5
$8 million is where I think he'll slot in. I would do 8x8. He's 25. He'll be 33 when it expires. At that point, provided he's still with the club (and he should be), you are in a position to re-sign him to another deal without having to worry about the 35 and over situation. you'd do 8x8. I'd do 8x8. the question is . . . will PK do 8x8? I'm thinking that the second number might be 8, but the first might be more. and as much as I agree with HA or whatever it is he's calling himself today, letting him walk -- even at 9.5 [ouch!] -- puts this team right back into lower-mediocrity status.
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Post by habsorbed on Jul 17, 2014 22:53:02 GMT -5
$8 million is where I think he'll slot in. I would do 8x8. He's 25. He'll be 33 when it expires. At that point, provided he's still with the club (and he should be), you are in a position to re-sign him to another deal without having to worry about the 35 and over situation. you'd do 8x8. I'd do 8x8. the question is . . . will PK do 8x8? I'm thinking that the second number might be 8, but the first might be more. and as much as I agree with HA or whatever it is he's calling himself today, letting him walk -- even at 9.5 [ouch!] -- puts this team right back into lower-mediocrity status. I'm with you Franko. No problem with 8 years and willing to go high on the annual salary. I don't expect PK to accept $8 a year, nor should he. A half mil more than Phaneuf? That's an insult. The outside is Toews/Kane money and even PK's ego (which is a good thing) would recognize that he doesn't have their track record yet. So i'm thinking reasonable sum is $9-10. MB has to pony up. This guy is a keeper and game changer. He plays hard every game, pushes himself and others, and has overcome huge obstacles. Not too many superstars with his qualities. I'd open the vault. We are not going to get fair return in a trade. We get nothing if he goes FA. We finally have a bona fide superstar. Pay the Piper! Or we're going to continue to live with the Ruth/Roy curse! Memo to MB: PK is a fan favourite. No one will criticize you for paying huge coin. This goes sideways and the lynch mob will be out!
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Post by Boston_Habs on Jul 18, 2014 9:00:56 GMT -5
you'd do 8x8. I'd do 8x8. the question is . . . will PK do 8x8? I'm thinking that the second number might be 8, but the first might be more. and as much as I agree with HA or whatever it is he's calling himself today, letting him walk -- even at 9.5 [ouch!] -- puts this team right back into lower-mediocrity status. I'm with you Franko. No problem with 8 years and willing to go high on the annual salary. I don't expect PK to accept $8 a year, nor should he. A half mil more than Phaneuf? That's an insult. The outside is Toews/Kane money and even PK's ego (which is a good thing) would recognize that he doesn't have their track record yet. So i'm thinking reasonable sum is $9-10. MB has to pony up. This guy is a keeper and game changer. He plays hard every game, pushes himself and others, and has overcome huge obstacles. Not too many superstars with his qualities. I'd open the vault. We are not going to get fair return in a trade. We get nothing if he goes FA. We finally have a bona fide superstar. Pay the Piper! Or we're going to continue to live with the Ruth/Roy curse! Memo to MB: PK is a fan favourite. No one will criticize you for paying huge coin. This goes sideways and the lynch mob will be out! Totally agree. If Habs management belives that Subban will take the PR hit for being greedy and not a team player, then they are on crack. As you said, Subban is popular with the fans, he's a huge talent, but he also has a great work ethic on the ice and he brings it every night. I don't know how popular he is in the room, but it frankly doesn't matter. Guys that are as good as he is that work as hard as he does are respected and that's all you need. This is all on management and, ultimately, ownership. Nobody will complain if PK signs a mega deal, but there will be rioting in the streets if they manage to screw this up.
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Post by jkr on Jul 18, 2014 9:20:49 GMT -5
you'd do 8x8. I'd do 8x8. the question is . . . will PK do 8x8? I'm thinking that the second number might be 8, but the first might be more. and as much as I agree with HA or whatever it is he's calling himself today, letting him walk -- even at 9.5 [ouch!] -- puts this team right back into lower-mediocrity status. I'm with you Franko. No problem with 8 years and willing to go high on the annual salary. I don't expect PK to accept $8 a year, nor should he. A half mil more than Phaneuf? That's an insult. The outside is Toews/Kane money and even PK's ego (which is a good thing) would recognize that he doesn't have their track record yet. So i'm thinking reasonable sum is $9-10. MB has to pony up. This guy is a keeper and game changer. He plays hard every game, pushes himself and others, and has overcome huge obstacles. Not too many superstars with his qualities. I'd open the vault. We are not going to get fair return in a trade. We get nothing if he goes FA. We finally have a bona fide superstar. Pay the Piper! Or we're going to continue to live with the Ruth/Roy curse! Memo to MB: PK is a fan favourite. No one will criticize you for paying huge coin. This goes sideways and the lynch mob will be out! The other thing we have to remember when we use Phaneuf as a comparable is that he is 29 & will be 36 when the deal is done which makes it even dumber. If he's getting 7 X 7 then PK is worth at least 8 million over 7 or 8 years. PK is only 25 so something like an 8 year deal only brings him to 33.
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Post by blny on Jul 18, 2014 9:26:02 GMT -5
I would go more than $8 million if I had to. Just hoping they don't have to. Makes managing the rest of the roster all the easier.
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Post by The Habitual Fan on Jul 18, 2014 10:41:58 GMT -5
Subban for Trouba and Kane???
Pack your bags PK and bring extra socks, it gets cold in the "peg" in February.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Jul 18, 2014 11:34:36 GMT -5
Subban for Trouba and Kane??? Pack your bags PK and bring extra socks, it gets cold in the "peg" in February. PK is better than Trouba and Kane, but the team may be better than with PK at $10.5 per year. I rally like PK, no question about his star power, but the team comes first.
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Post by UberCranky on Jul 18, 2014 11:46:59 GMT -5
Memo to MB: PK is a fan favourite. No one will criticize you for paying huge coin. This goes sideways and the lynch mob will be out! There are a lot of PK fans....but they are Hab fans first. If PK wants to set a record to satisfy his ego, damn the consequences, then MB has to do whatever it takes. I would trade PK before I give him 10.5 million.
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Post by UberCranky on Jul 18, 2014 11:47:48 GMT -5
Subban for Trouba and Kane??? Pack your bags PK and bring extra socks, it gets cold in the "peg" in February. PK is better than Trouba and Kane, but the team may be better than with PK at $10.5 per year. I rally like PK, no question about his star power, but the team comes first. Bingo. I was a Hab fan before PK was born and will be a fan long after PK has retired.
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Post by jkr on Jul 18, 2014 11:56:20 GMT -5
Subban for Trouba and Kane??? Pack your bags PK and bring extra socks, it gets cold in the "peg" in February. PK is better than Trouba and Kane, but the team may be better than with PK at $10.5 per year. I rally like PK, no question about his star power, but the team comes first. If Subban gets traded than this team won't be first in anything for a long time. Winnipeg gets the best player & MTL is trading a solid citizen in Subban for a problem child like Kane. Sounds like a great deal.
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