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Post by Doc Holliday on Jul 20, 2014 8:35:34 GMT -5
...yeah well the only reason Crosby is at 8.7 is because he signed a 12yr contract with some years at 3mil at the end... He's making on average 11.3mil on the frist 6 years of his contract. You can't compare Subban next contract to those signed in a previous CBA that had completely different set of rules for those contract. Again if Berg had been smart, Subban would have been signed extremely long term 2 years ago... 10 years, 70mil, we'd be counting our blessings right now.
I agree that no player is in theory untouchable... ...that said franchise player swap such as Crosby/Subban never happen... it's always one for 2-3.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 20, 2014 9:52:27 GMT -5
Trouba and Kane would replace Subban's production no doubt about it, but neither would replace his impact. When we traded Roy, we received 2 young top6 players in Rucinsky/Kovalenko and what was considered a top shelf blue chip prospect in Thibault. That trade certainly gave the team a better balance on paper as a Trouba/Kane deal would. But the impact of Roy was never replaced and neither would Subban’s. We waited decades to have one impact player on this team and trading him when he just enters his prime would be a sad joke. It’s just money… and we should know that no matter how much you spend, money won’t buy you a Subban if don’t have it. You can throw money at a bunch of Briere, Gionta, Gorges, Bourque, etc… who collectively will cost more than PK and will bring you nowhere. Sign him, pay him whatever, and let’s move on. Good post Doc. Cheers.
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Post by stoat on Jul 20, 2014 19:15:47 GMT -5
If Subban goes to arbitration I would sign him at whatever salary is set and immediately trade him to the highest bidder, It would avoid losing him as a UFA in two years. It would also avoid having to pay him an astronomical sum if he elects to stay when his next contract expires. Bergevin must display enough backbone to put the team ahead of Subban's popularity or he'll expose himself as a soft touch for everyone else.
Of course it would give Hab fans peace of mind if Subban were to sign a long-term contract in the next few days without going to arbitration.
What's on Subban's mind? Simple greed? Revenge for the bridge contract? Spitting in Therrien's eye? All three?
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Post by habsorbed on Jul 21, 2014 0:11:15 GMT -5
If Subban goes to arbitration I would sign him at whatever salary is set and immediately trade him to the highest bidder, It would avoid losing him as a UFA in two years. It would also avoid having to pay him an astronomical sum if he elects to stay when his next contract expires. Bergevin must display enough backbone to put the team ahead of Subban's popularity or he'll expose himself as a soft touch for everyone else. Of course it would give Hab fans peace of mind if Subban were to sign a long-term contract in the next few days without going to arbitration. What's on Subban's mind? Simple greed? Revenge for the bridge contract? Spitting in Therrien's eye? All three? !) If this goes to arbitration the relationship will not end well for Habs fans. It would be interesting to see stats on how many players go to arbitration and remain long or even medium term with the team. 2) I don't see greed as a part of this. Revenge would be silly as it is not a good motivator and I would think PK's father would intervene. I'm not sure it's spitting in MT's eye but it may very well be a determination that if i'm going to continue to play for such a disrespectful/unsupportive coach I'm going to get good coin. Perhaps he'd rather play under Carlyle for $8 million than MT for $9.5. Not sure I can blame him. Hard to believe we could lose a stud who could anchor our team for 8 years because of a simple minded coach who will be gone in 2 years. MB - get this done!!!!
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Post by Skilly on Jul 21, 2014 10:47:28 GMT -5
You can't compare Subban next contract to those signed in a previous CBA that had completely different set of rules for those contract. I think we are splitting hairs here with this arguement. But where does PK Subban fall in value, when compared to the rest of the league. There have been enough contracts signed in the new CBA, to toss a reasonable number out there, to gauge Subban's worth. Is he the best defenseman in the league? Should the best defenseman on your team be paid comparable to the best defensemen in the league because he is the best you got? Should he be eating up more cap space than the best offensive stars in the game? Depending on how you answer those questions, you now have what you considder a reasonable number in your head for Subban. Sidney Crosby signed his last contract under the old rules, but Evgeni Malkin did not. Since they have been getting paid the same since they came into the league, I don't think I am going too far out on that limb to say that Crosby's front loaded contract was for the good of the team and that under the new rules, he'd probably slide in somewhere around Malkin's new $9.5 million cap space deal. I don't think Subban should be getting anywhere near to 9.5 million. There are certain rules for going into these arbitration cases. I believe one of them is that you can't use a player who signed his contract as an unrestricted free agent as a comparable. So, as far as I see, the two comparables that really stand out are Erik Karlsson and Duncan Keith. Both won a Norris trophy and then got their contracts extended as RFAs with their respective teams. Duncan Keith was under the old rules, and had his contract front end loaded, but his salary started at 8 million. Erik Karlsson was under the new rules, and he is currently at 6.5 million. The one comparable everyone loves to use is Drew Doughty (7 million). PK Subban's arguement in salary arbitration will be that he is more valuable to the Montreal Canadiens than Doughty is to LA, and Keith is to Chicago. And you know what, I don't think he is wrong. And you are allowed to use that arguement in arbitration. But I don't think he is more valuable to Montreal than Karlsson is to Ottawa. If Subban is asking for more than 7.5 million per season ... a cap-hit that would rank him third in the league in defensemen (Weber is 7.857 and Suter is 7.538) ... then I would want Bergevin to really think about how he wants this team to look. We all love what PK Subban brings. But I think he has to realize, that if the Montreal Canadiens are to compete, than he has to be paid by his production and not what he thinks his overflated value is ... he isnt the best defenseman in the league just yet, but he is top five. Perhaps take a page from the NFL and pay him the cap hit average of the top three in the league. EDIT: Just so we can see where the top five in the league fall 1) Weber - 7.857 2) Suter - 7.538 3) Letang - 7.250 4) Campbell - 7.142 5) Doughty - 7.000 5) Phaneuf - 7.000
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Post by franko on Jul 21, 2014 11:01:31 GMT -5
I keep going back to percentages. what percent of [this year's] cap should PK expect/should MB expect to pay? 20% is too high . . . but what about 15? that's $10M. that's ouch
comparables? I'm too lazy to try and find it . . . but what % did Karlsson and Doughty get? extrapolate from there.
if the first question is how much, the second is how long? are we happy with 4 years and then let him walk? or do we want to sign him long term? either way it's going to cost. short term we run into the same problem as the bridge deal, and we know he'll be gone at the end .
didn't we learn anything from the way Gainey treated Ryder?
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Post by Andrew on Jul 21, 2014 13:04:18 GMT -5
I keep going back to percentages. what percent of [this year's] cap should PK expect/should MB expect to pay? 20% is too high . . . but what about 15? that's $10M. that's ouchcomparables? I'm too lazy to try and find it . . . but what % did Karlsson and Doughty get? extrapolate from there. That's a pretty reasonable approach, and defensible in an arbitration process. Capgeek compiles all of this data for us. Here are comparables to Doughty. The "Cap Pct" column lists the % of the cap that the contract represented in year 1 of the contract. capgeek.com/comparables/?player_id=1010&year_id=2014As you can see, the league's top defenders all signed in the neighbourhood of 9% - 11% at the time of signing. Brian Campbell was the highest at 12.6% at the start of his contract (when the cap was below 60M). With these numbers in mind, I'd say that it would be difficult for the Habs to justify anything less than 11% (7.6M), and likewise for the Subban camp to justify anything greater than 13% (9M). 12.5% would work out to about an 8.6M cap hit, which is where I expect things'll end up.
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Post by habsorbed on Jul 21, 2014 14:00:34 GMT -5
I keep going back to percentages. what percent of [this year's] cap should PK expect/should MB expect to pay? 20% is too high . . . but what about 15? that's $10M. that's ouchcomparables? I'm too lazy to try and find it . . . but what % did Karlsson and Doughty get? extrapolate from there. That's a pretty reasonable approach, and defensible in an arbitration process. Capgeek compiles all of this data for us. Here are comparables to Doughty. The "Cap Pct" column lists the % of the cap that the contract represented in year 1 of the contract. capgeek.com/comparables/?player_id=1010&year_id=2014As you can see, the league's top defenders all signed in the neighbourhood of 9% - 11% at the time of signing. Brian Campbell was the highest at 12.6% at the start of his contract (when the cap was below 60M). With these numbers in mind, I'd say that it would be difficult for the Habs to justify anything less than 11% (7.6M), and likewise for the Subban camp to justify anything greater than 13% (9M). 12.5% would work out to about an 8.6M cap hit, which is where I expect things'll end up. Good stuff Andrew. I'd be happy with $9m for 8 years. If PK's asking for more then he is being unrealistic and putting himself ahead of the team. It seems to me that one of the factors that PK has to get over at any arbitration is that a neutral party of elite coaches who know NHL talent had him ranked below the top 6 Canadians at the Olympics. Sure he could argue that there was a team concept which he didn't fit into and they already had their top 2 or 3 offensive dmen. But even that argument puts him no better than 3rd or 4th best Canadian dman and suggests he may be limited in what he offers to a team concept. Sure hope PK is not asking for $10 as that may reveal what we've all been denying about him: he's all about PK. Maybe Hal Gill should give him a call and some guidance. Then again, as has been suggested, this may all be an end game by PK to get away from Mtl and MT. If that's where he's at then the relationship is over. Let's get the 2 years from the arbitration and deal him when we get the right offer.
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Post by jkr on Jul 21, 2014 14:15:14 GMT -5
I keep going back to percentages. what percent of [this year's] cap should PK expect/should MB expect to pay? 20% is too high . . . but what about 15? that's $10M. that's ouchcomparables? I'm too lazy to try and find it . . . but what % did Karlsson and Doughty get? extrapolate from there. That's a pretty reasonable approach, and defensible in an arbitration process. Capgeek compiles all of this data for us. Here are comparables to Doughty. The "Cap Pct" column lists the % of the cap that the contract represented in year 1 of the contract. capgeek.com/comparables/?player_id=1010&year_id=2014As you can see, the league's top defenders all signed in the neighbourhood of 9% - 11% at the time of signing. Brian Campbell was the highest at 12.6% at the start of his contract (when the cap was below 60M). With these numbers in mind, I'd say that it would be difficult for the Habs to justify anything less than 11% (7.6M), and likewise for the Subban camp to justify anything greater than 13% (9M). 12.5% would work out to about an 8.6M cap hit, which is where I expect things'll end up. Funny how that 11% number ends up at 7.6. I know it's probably a coincidence but it's odd how some cap hits end up matching a players number - Crosby at 8.7 and Karlsson at 6.5 come to mind. Hope he doesn't end up changing his number to something in the nineties.
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Post by jkr on Jul 21, 2014 14:17:16 GMT -5
That's a pretty reasonable approach, and defensible in an arbitration process. Capgeek compiles all of this data for us. Here are comparables to Doughty. The "Cap Pct" column lists the % of the cap that the contract represented in year 1 of the contract. capgeek.com/comparables/?player_id=1010&year_id=2014As you can see, the league's top defenders all signed in the neighbourhood of 9% - 11% at the time of signing. Brian Campbell was the highest at 12.6% at the start of his contract (when the cap was below 60M). With these numbers in mind, I'd say that it would be difficult for the Habs to justify anything less than 11% (7.6M), and likewise for the Subban camp to justify anything greater than 13% (9M). 12.5% would work out to about an 8.6M cap hit, which is where I expect things'll end up. Good stuff Andrew. I'd be happy with $9m for 8 years. If PK's asking for more then he is being unrealistic and putting himself ahead of the team. It seems to me that one of the factors that PK has to get over at any arbitration is that a neutral party of elite coaches who know NHL talent had him ranked below the top 6 Canadians at the Olympics. Sure he could argue that there was a team concept which he didn't fit into and they already had their top 2 or 3 offensive dmen. But even that argument puts him no better than 3rd or 4th best Canadian dman and suggests he may be limited in what he offers to a team concept. The Team Canada coaching staff seemed really committed to the left/right thing when it came to their D pairs. Subban might argue that he was number 4 behind the righties they had on the team.
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Post by Skilly on Jul 21, 2014 15:34:21 GMT -5
Any argument about PK's standing on Team Canada is not admissible in an arbitration case, unless Habs management wants to argue it falls under special qualities of public appeal, and I really doubt they want to go there .....Subban is dripping in public appeal
The evidence that can be used in arbitration cases:
The player's "overall performance" including statistics in all previous seasons. Injuries, illnesses and the number of games played. The player's length of service with the team and in the NHL. The player's "overall contribution" to the team's success or failure. The player's "special qualities of leadership or public appeal." The performance and salary of any player alleged to be "comparable" to the player in the dispute.
Evidence that is not admissible:
The salary and performance of a "comparable" player who signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent. Testimonials, video and media reports. The financial state of the team. The salary cap and the state of the team's payroll.
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Post by christrpn on Jul 21, 2014 17:00:06 GMT -5
Exactly. I don't buy the argument that it will handcuff the team. Hell, Chicago is paying two guys 10 million each & they will still compete. Do people want to see the Montreal Expos on ice or do they want a team that tries to win? Hawks would be a bad example, seeing that they are over the cap for the 14-15 season and their new contracts haven't kicked in yet. Next year, the cap would have to go up significantly for them to stay status quo, if not, then they would have to continue dumping salary. The best example is Pitts, two superstars, both taking a cut in order for the team to compete.
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Post by habsorbed on Jul 21, 2014 18:16:32 GMT -5
Any argument about PK's standing on Team Canada is not admissible in an arbitration case, unless Habs management wants to argue it falls under special qualities of public appeal, and I really doubt they want to go there .....Subban is dripping in public appeal The evidence that can be used in arbitration cases: The player's "overall performance" including statistics in all previous seasons. Injuries, illnesses and the number of games played. The player's length of service with the team and in the NHL. The player's "overall contribution" to the team's success or failure. The player's "special qualities of leadership or public appeal." The performance and salary of any player alleged to be "comparable" to the player in the dispute. Evidence that is not admissible: The salary and performance of a "comparable" player who signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent. Testimonials, video and media reports. The financial state of the team. The salary cap and the state of the team's payroll. Very helpful Skilly! Not sure what they mean by "overall performance" and whether one could look at Olympics but if I were MB I'd try to fit the Olympic evaluation under the performance of any comparable player.Regardless, when applying the criteria, just don't see how PK could ask for more than $9 and certainly not $10. He'd be asking to be paid the top salary for a dman. He's not there yet, except for the Norris in an abbreviated season which he wasn't even nominated for last season. It will be very interesting tho hear what the two sides positions are.
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Post by jkr on Jul 21, 2014 19:17:45 GMT -5
Hawks would be a bad example, seeing that they are over the cap for the 14-15 season and their new contracts haven't kicked in yet. Next year, the cap would have to go up significantly for them to stay status quo, if not, then they would have to continue dumping salary. The best example is Pitts, two superstars, both taking a cut in order for the team to compete. According to capgeek.com Crosby's cap hit is 8.7, Malkin's is 9.5. Doesn't sound like either guy is taking a cut.
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Post by stoat on Jul 21, 2014 19:34:31 GMT -5
I keep going back to percentages. what percent of [this year's] cap should PK expect/should MB expect to pay? 20% is too high . . . but what about 15? that's $10M. that's ouchcomparables? I'm too lazy to try and find it . . . but what % did Karlsson and Doughty get? extrapolate from there. That's a pretty reasonable approach, and defensible in an arbitration process. Capgeek compiles all of this data for us. Here are comparables to Doughty. The "Cap Pct" column lists the % of the cap that the contract represented in year 1 of the contract. capgeek.com/comparables/?player_id=1010&year_id=2014As you can see, the league's top defenders all signed in the neighbourhood of 9% - 11% at the time of signing. Brian Campbell was the highest at 12.6% at the start of his contract (when the cap was below 60M). With these numbers in mind, I'd say that it would be difficult for the Habs to justify anything less than 11% (7.6M), and likewise for the Subban camp to justify anything greater than 13% (9M). 12.5% would work out to about an 8.6M cap hit, which is where I expect things'll end up. You don't know what Subban's agent is putting in his ear. By this time he may be scoffing at $8.6M. There's a salary cap and there are other players to pay. Who should be traded to accommodate him? Should the Habs be icing half a dozen AHL players?
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Post by Andrew on Jul 21, 2014 23:10:52 GMT -5
Any argument about PK's standing on Team Canada is not admissible in an arbitration case, unless Habs management wants to argue it falls under special qualities of public appeal, and I really doubt they want to go there .....Subban is dripping in public appeal Evidence that is not admissible: The salary and performance of a "comparable" player who signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent. Thanks for the clarification. That's good info. Are you aware if there's a distinction between UFA and UFA eligible? Phaneuf, for example, was UFA eligible but never hit the open market as UFA before re-signing with the Leafs.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Jul 22, 2014 1:28:19 GMT -5
Just hope PK doesn't turn into Montreal's Lebron.
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Post by Skilly on Jul 22, 2014 6:23:04 GMT -5
Any argument about PK's standing on Team Canada is not admissible in an arbitration case, unless Habs management wants to argue it falls under special qualities of public appeal, and I really doubt they want to go there .....Subban is dripping in public appeal Evidence that is not admissible: The salary and performance of a "comparable" player who signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent. Thanks for the clarification. That's good info. Are you aware if there's a distinction between UFA and UFA eligible? Phaneuf, for example, was UFA eligible but never hit the open market as UFA before re-signing with the Leafs. I think (I havent found any evidence to the contrary) that contracts signed pre-July 1st are contract extensions, and not considered a UFA contract.
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Post by jkr on Jul 22, 2014 17:03:10 GMT -5
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Post by christrpn on Jul 22, 2014 17:03:24 GMT -5
Hawks would be a bad example, seeing that they are over the cap for the 14-15 season and their new contracts haven't kicked in yet. Next year, the cap would have to go up significantly for them to stay status quo, if not, then they would have to continue dumping salary. The best example is Pitts, two superstars, both taking a cut in order for the team to compete. According to capgeek.com Crosby's cap hit is 8.7, Malkin's is 9.5. Doesn't sound like either guy is taking a cut. $8.7M a year for arguably the best player in the NHL? More importantly, the guy that took the bankrupt Penguins and turned them into what they are now isn't a pay cut? If anyone in the league is worth over $10M a year it's crosby.
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Post by jkr on Jul 22, 2014 17:15:24 GMT -5
According to capgeek.com Crosby's cap hit is 8.7, Malkin's is 9.5. Doesn't sound like either guy is taking a cut. $8.7M a year for arguably the best player in the NHL? More importantly, the guy that took the bankrupt Penguins and turned them into what they are now isn't a pay cut? If anyone in the league is worth over $10M a year it's crosby. I can't remember what year he signed that deal but it's one of those front loaded things. According to www.capgeek.com/penguins , over the next 7 years he will make 12/12/10.9/10.9/10/9/9.6. Doesn't look like a pay cut to me.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Jul 22, 2014 17:56:31 GMT -5
Option 1. 2 years at $7.5 million per. See how he progresses in the next two years. Is he a finalist in the Norris derby again or is he not nominated? Does he get benched for his mistakes? Is he suspended by the league for several games for hits to the head? Does he progress or regress? Is he still making rookie mistakes and bad decisions? Option 2. 8 years to $9+ million per +/- Our eggs are all in the Subban basket and we hope he progresses and cuts down his mistakes. He is our best player but how does the team do? Is he unhappy in 4 years when somebody gets $12 million under a higher cap? Markov is here for 3 years max. Does Galchenyuk become elite (Crosby, Malkin, MacKinnon) or is he just very good? Does Gallagher stand up to the pounding he takes? Is MT still coach? We have lots of depth but are short on elite talent. Renegotiate Price? Pick up talent from teams that are over the cap limit? If we spend right up to the cap we lose flexibility to improve. Injuries? ? Lots of size in the pipe, but do they have the talent to play big minutes or are they just big? All things equal I would like to sign Subban long term, but all things are not always equal? Sit back and flease teams like Chicago that have to release talent to get under the cap!
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Post by seventeen on Jul 22, 2014 22:58:12 GMT -5
Let's add some more fuel to the fire, via Eric Engels. www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?blogger_id=821) The Montreal Canadiens and P.K. Subban have 10 days until their arbitration date, and word is that they aren't so close on the money just yet. Rumors have Subban's camp asking for as much as $10M per season, while very little has come out of the Canadiens in terms of what they're offering.
I can appreciate the impatience all around on this one, but when you see numbers this high, and you know there's a massive payout coming--whether it's over two or eight years--you have to expect that it's a complicated deal to work.
I think it's widely perceived that Marc Bergevin's playing hardball when this contract extension should be a slamdunk. People are bringing up recent extensions for Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews as examples of how easy it is to commit to elite talent, but those deals weren't easy to work out for Stan Bowman. There was a lot of negotiating that went down to bring both players away from $12M+/season asks, while sensitively maintaining that they were the two most important players to Chicago's success.
Bergevin's sole mandate is to get this deal done for a number that's less than what it would be if Subban were up for a contract two years from now as an unrestricted free agent. That's what's complex about this negotiation. Naturally, Subban's camp is asking to be compensated for six years of being an unrestricted free agent, factoring in salary cap inflation, and the fact that he's still improving.
2) I don't know for certain that Subban's camp is asking for $10M per season, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me. You have to think that's a number he could get if he continues on the current career path he's on, skating his way to unrestricted free agency in two seasons.
The other side of the coin is that anything can happen to him over the next two years. He needn't look further than what just happened to Thomas Vanek ahead of unrestricted free agency to realize that things change quicker than quick.
Subban holds the cards, how he plays them over the next 10 days or less have an enormous impact--not only on his future, but on the team's too. A compromise should be found, especially since an eight-year deal is in both parties' best interest.
3) So, the Kris Letang rumors are persisting, from what I gather. I won't comment on the possibility of Pittsburgh trading him to one of the 15 teams he'd supposedly accept a trade to (the Canadiens among them), but I will say this:
It's been ugly watching fans kick dirt at Letang--suggesting he's not a worthwhile pickup in a trade; that his contract is bloated for what he offers; that his recent medical history is too big a burden to undertake.
Letang is absolutely elite, and at $7.25M per season, is on a deal he fully earned. Some believe he's just a product of a Pittsburgh powerplay that includes Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. They use Matt Niskanen's meteoric rise this past season to justify the claim.
Letang didn't come out of nowhere. He's been great at virtually every level, and his ability to move the puck and skate it out of the zone is up there with some of the best rushing defensemen in the league.
All these arguments about these types of defensemen always come back to someone comparing them to Drew Doughty. There's only one Drew Doughty. Letang doesn't have his physicality. Neither does Erik Karlsson. Both players, along with Subban, Duncan Keith and Shea Weber do the one thing that's so critical to team success: They get the puck out of the zone, typically with ease. They do that, and so much more.
4) Looking ahead to next season, you have to like what the Canadiens have going at the bottom end of their roster. The extremely inexpensive signing of Manny Malholtra alleviates defensive zone pressure on Tomas Plekanec. He doesn't have to take every d-zone draw now, and that's not to say that Plekanec won't have to do heavy lifting on the defensive side of the puck, but this move will afford him the opportunity to concentrate a little more on creating offense.
Fans are reasonably excited about young Jiri Sekac joining Plekanec's line. There's no way to project what Sekac can muster in the NHL, but he certainly looked dominant against the kids at development camp. The thought of him completing a line with Galchenyuk and Plekanec is giving the Canadiens an unheralded offensive look.
5) If the Canadiens enter this season as they're currently constructed, here's a look at how they might line up:
Pacioretty-Desharnais-Gallagher Galchenyuk-Plekanec-Sekac Bourque-Eller-Parenteau Bournival/Prust-Malholtra-Weise
Markov-Subban Emelin-Gilbert Beaulieu-Weaver Tinordi
Price Tokarski Budaj
Marc Bergevin hasn't closed the door on trying to pick up another forward, though you'd have to imagine that will only happen through trade at this point.
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Post by BadCompany on Jul 23, 2014 7:03:41 GMT -5
There are a lot of rumors out there suggesting that the Subban camp only wants a 4-5 year deal, which would certainly change the dynamics of the negotiation. Subban and Meahan know that if he gets say a four year deal at $8 million per year he stands to cash in now, AND again in four years, when he'll be a 29 year old UFA in a world where the cap might be $10-15 million higher. It's really the best of both worlds for him. If he doesn't get more than $10 million now, he'll certainly get it were he to become available in four years. Which is where the snag in the negotiations might be. If Bergevin is going to give him the big bucks you can be darn sure he's going to want to lock him up for as long as possible while doing so. It might actually be a weird negotiation in that Bergevin has to offer MORE to get to him sign longer, as opposed to offering less and increasing the term. Oh to be a fly on the wall...
Which brings me back to that bridge deal. Subban wanted Doughty money back then, which was north of $7 million... but what if he only wanted it on a four or five year deal? Wouldn't that change how we view how Bergevin played that one? Again, Subban would have gotten the best of both worlds; would have gotten big money at a young age, AND would be hitting the UFA market as a 27 year old super-stud defenseman. Ka-ching!!! While it's easy to point to Pacioretty's deal and say Bergevin should have gone for that there is nothing to suggest the Subban camp would have accepted it. Everybody knows Pacioretty is underpaid now, and will be for the rest of that contract. We know it, Meahan knows it, Subban knows it. Heck, Pacioretty knows it. It's probably why he has subsequently fired his agent. It's a "safe" contract for Pacioretty, but hardly one that is commiserate with his current worth as a borderline 40 goal scorer.
Subban has a, well let's just say "healthy" ego. He believes he can be one of the best not only in the game, but of all time. He has said so. He's also very cognizant of image, money, and the business side of things. Many, many interviews can be found of him talking not just about his contract, but endorsements as well. He's business savvy. He's market savvy. He fully believes that he can cash in big. REALLY big. The trick will be for Bergevin to let him think he is doing so, but on terms that are friendly-enough to the organization at the same time.
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Post by Willie Dog on Jul 23, 2014 9:42:12 GMT -5
Let's add some more fuel to the fire, via Eric Engels. www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?blogger_id=821) The Montreal Canadiens and P.K. Subban have 10 days until their arbitration date, and word is that they aren't so close on the money just yet. Rumors have Subban's camp asking for as much as $10M per season, while very little has come out of the Canadiens in terms of what they're offering.
I can appreciate the impatience all around on this one, but when you see numbers this high, and you know there's a massive payout coming--whether it's over two or eight years--you have to expect that it's a complicated deal to work.
I think it's widely perceived that Marc Bergevin's playing hardball when this contract extension should be a slamdunk. People are bringing up recent extensions for Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews as examples of how easy it is to commit to elite talent, but those deals weren't easy to work out for Stan Bowman. There was a lot of negotiating that went down to bring both players away from $12M+/season asks, while sensitively maintaining that they were the two most important players to Chicago's success.
Bergevin's sole mandate is to get this deal done for a number that's less than what it would be if Subban were up for a contract two years from now as an unrestricted free agent. That's what's complex about this negotiation. Naturally, Subban's camp is asking to be compensated for six years of being an unrestricted free agent, factoring in salary cap inflation, and the fact that he's still improving.
2) I don't know for certain that Subban's camp is asking for $10M per season, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me. You have to think that's a number he could get if he continues on the current career path he's on, skating his way to unrestricted free agency in two seasons.
The other side of the coin is that anything can happen to him over the next two years. He needn't look further than what just happened to Thomas Vanek ahead of unrestricted free agency to realize that things change quicker than quick.
Subban holds the cards, how he plays them over the next 10 days or less have an enormous impact--not only on his future, but on the team's too. A compromise should be found, especially since an eight-year deal is in both parties' best interest.
3) So, the Kris Letang rumors are persisting, from what I gather. I won't comment on the possibility of Pittsburgh trading him to one of the 15 teams he'd supposedly accept a trade to (the Canadiens among them), but I will say this:
It's been ugly watching fans kick dirt at Letang--suggesting he's not a worthwhile pickup in a trade; that his contract is bloated for what he offers; that his recent medical history is too big a burden to undertake.
Letang is absolutely elite, and at $7.25M per season, is on a deal he fully earned. Some believe he's just a product of a Pittsburgh powerplay that includes Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. They use Matt Niskanen's meteoric rise this past season to justify the claim.
Letang didn't come out of nowhere. He's been great at virtually every level, and his ability to move the puck and skate it out of the zone is up there with some of the best rushing defensemen in the league.
All these arguments about these types of defensemen always come back to someone comparing them to Drew Doughty. There's only one Drew Doughty. Letang doesn't have his physicality. Neither does Erik Karlsson. Both players, along with Subban, Duncan Keith and Shea Weber do the one thing that's so critical to team success: They get the puck out of the zone, typically with ease. They do that, and so much more.
4) Looking ahead to next season, you have to like what the Canadiens have going at the bottom end of their roster. The extremely inexpensive signing of Manny Malholtra alleviates defensive zone pressure on Tomas Plekanec. He doesn't have to take every d-zone draw now, and that's not to say that Plekanec won't have to do heavy lifting on the defensive side of the puck, but this move will afford him the opportunity to concentrate a little more on creating offense.
Fans are reasonably excited about young Jiri Sekac joining Plekanec's line. There's no way to project what Sekac can muster in the NHL, but he certainly looked dominant against the kids at development camp. The thought of him completing a line with Galchenyuk and Plekanec is giving the Canadiens an unheralded offensive look.
5) If the Canadiens enter this season as they're currently constructed, here's a look at how they might line up:
Pacioretty-Desharnais-Gallagher Galchenyuk-Plekanec-Sekac Bourque-Eller-Parenteau Bournival/Prust-Malholtra-Weise
Markov-Subban Emelin-Gilbert Beaulieu-Weaver Tinordi
Price Tokarski Budaj
Marc Bergevin hasn't closed the door on trying to pick up another forward, though you'd have to imagine that will only happen through trade at this point. In thelineup above, I would love to see Eller and Pleky switch lines.
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Post by UberCranky on Jul 23, 2014 10:50:15 GMT -5
Subban has a, well let's just say "healthy" ego. He believes he can be one of the best not only in the game, but of all time. He has said so. He's also very cognizant of image, money, and the business side of things. Many, many interviews can be found of him talking not just about his contract, but endorsements as well. He's business savvy. He's market savvy. He fully believes that he can cash in big. REALLY big. The trick will be for Bergevin to let him think he is doing so, but on terms that are friendly-enough to the organization at the same time. This would make me want to trade PK even more. His ego would really benefit playing in Minnesota. The world does not revolve around PK and his ego, it revolves around the team and a Stanley Cup.
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Post by Boston_Habs on Jul 23, 2014 11:12:36 GMT -5
Which brings me back to that bridge deal. Subban wanted Doughty money back then, which was north of $7 million... but what if he only wanted it on a four or five year deal? Wouldn't that change how we view how Bergevin played that one? Again, Subban would have gotten the best of both worlds; would have gotten big money at a young age, AND would be hitting the UFA market as a 27 year old super-stud defenseman. Ka-ching!!! I think we could have done something like a 6-year, $36-40 million deal that would have brought Subban to UFA at age 30. He would have been overpaid by about $3 million in the first couple years (compared to the bridge deal), and underpaid by about that same amount in the last few years. But it would have given PK some long-term security, it would have given the Habs a very team-friendly deal that locked PK up for his prime years and still given him a bite at the UFA apple at age 30. I don't know if PK would have taken that deal, or something like that, but it would have been a fair contract for both sides.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Jul 23, 2014 12:50:10 GMT -5
Which brings me back to that bridge deal. Subban wanted Doughty money back then, which was north of $7 million... but what if he only wanted it on a four or five year deal? Wouldn't that change how we view how Bergevin played that one? Again, Subban would have gotten the best of both worlds; would have gotten big money at a young age, AND would be hitting the UFA market as a 27 year old super-stud defenseman. Ka-ching!!! I think we could have done something like a 6-year, $36-40 million deal that would have brought Subban to UFA at age 30. He would have been overpaid by about $3 million in the first couple years (compared to the bridge deal), and underpaid by about that same amount in the last few years. But it would have given PK some long-term security, it would have given the Habs a very team-friendly deal that locked PK up for his prime years and still given him a bite at the UFA apple at age 30. I don't know if PK would have taken that deal, or something like that, but it would have been a fair contract for both sides. Coulda, woulda, shoulda? I should have mortgaged my house to the hilt and used the money to buy shares of Suncor last year. Now it's worth more. Subban has progressed but hasn't won or been nominated for another Norris. We are never sure of the future and we measure risk by the likelihood of an event occurring and the cost and value of occurrence. If I bet a million and win I am happy with the result. If I bet a million and lose, the impact is much more severe. We can not predict the future with 100% accuracy. If I was given an edge in Las Vegas and allowed to bet $1,000,000 to win $2,500,000 on the flip of a coin, the severity of the loss outweighs the impact of the gain and I would not take the risk despite the odds being in my favor. I say let Subban play for two years and then if he is the Norris winner again he is worth what the open market says. If he gives us a reasonable 8 year deal, take it. Either way there is risk.
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Post by CentreHice on Jul 23, 2014 16:41:26 GMT -5
The only thing I can add to this conversation is that I don't think Subban is one of those types who sign big only to coast for several years.
He appears to be the type who PROVES his salary.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Jul 23, 2014 18:57:23 GMT -5
The only thing I can add to this conversation is that I don't think Subban is one of those types who sign big only to coast for several years. He appears to be the type who PROVES his salary. Agree! He works out hard in the off season. When somebody gets to the NHL they made it with hard work. Crosby, Malkin, MacKinnon, they have talent AND they work hard. Unless there is a psychological problem, I believe that every player wants to be successful and do his beat. There is no satisfaction in collecting a paycheck and listening to the boos of the fans. Even Bourque and Briere want to score but the puck doesn't go in often enough for them.
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