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Post by Boston_Habs on Sept 24, 2014 13:07:29 GMT -5
Based on an 82-game schedule, 3 goals per game is actually 246 goals but I'd settle for 240 as a round number. By comparison, we scored 205 goals last year (excluding shoot-out goals). So we need to find another 35 goals.
IMO 3 goals per game is the holy grail, the production bogey that every contending team should aspire to. And that's because teams typically win when they score at least 3 goals. I haven't checked the numbers, but I would say if you have league average goaltending/defense, a team that scores 3 goals a game should win close to 60% of the time. That's about 50 wins give or take. You get down to the 2.5 and less range and it's pretty much a toss-up, which is where the Habs were last year. Despite the 100-point season, we only had 40 regulation or OT wins, for a win pct of less than 50%.
I believe our 100-point season was very charitable to our underlying performance. We were one of the worst even-strength scoring teams in the league and THE worst scoring team among the 8 playoff teams in the East. We were bailed out by above-average goaltending and the Vanek acquisition, which increased our production to the 3 GPG mark and propelled us to an 11-3-1 stretch in the last 15 games.
So the warm glow of the playoffs is over, the summer of additions and subtractions is over, and while I generally like the moves Bergy made it's time to take an objective view of the realistic scoring potential of this group. Take a look at what a 240-goal team looks like and then tell me if you think certain guys can perform over/under that mark. Either way, it's hard to be confident in this team unless you believe we can come close to that 240 goal mark.
Pacioretty--37 Gallagher--25 Galchenyuk--20 Plekanec--20 Parenteau--20 Eller--20 Desharnais--15 Bourque--15 Bournival--10 (or Sekac) Malhotra--7 Weise--6 Prust--5 Moen--2
Subban--15 Markov--10 Beaulieu--4 Emelin--3 Gilbert--3 Weaver--2 Tinordi--1
Total--240
Reasonable? It seems the talent is there to do it, but several guys would need to perform well above their production from last year, including Eller (12 goals last year), Bourque (9 goals last year), Galchenyuk (13 goals last year), Parenteau (14 goals last year), Gallagher (19 goals last year). Typically you will see more than expected production from some and less from others, but lots of things need to go right for us this year to become the scoring team we need to be. Expectations are high for this season, but I see plenty of downside risk that we'll be the same offensively challenged team we were last year, relying too much on Carey Price, and with little margin for error. I expect better than that.
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Post by Willie Dog on Sept 24, 2014 13:17:27 GMT -5
I think Patches will hit at least 40 this year and Parenteau will hit 25 on his right side. Already DD-Patches-PA have developed chemistry and Parenteau will have all sorts of room as teams key on Patches. I am confident DD can get Parenteau the puck easily.
I believe the 4th line of prust-weise-Malholtra will do better than 18 goals.
The 2nd and 3rd line is a toss up for me.
If we could move bourque, then both Bournival and Sekac would have spots.
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Post by Skilly on Sept 25, 2014 5:28:39 GMT -5
BH, we are both on the same page when it comes to the "3 goals a game" theory.
I look at your list though and I can't help but thinking that you have almost every player having a career year to get to 240 .... I can't see that happening.
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Post by Doc Holliday on Sept 25, 2014 8:04:25 GMT -5
I think 240 is a tall order and if we want to get there we'll have to have a much more agressive system to allow this. Specifically 5 on 5. The addition of Gilbert and potentially Beaulieu should in theory help the transition which was a problem last year.
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Post by blny on Sept 25, 2014 8:12:09 GMT -5
Bergevin eluded to it during his interview with Bob McKenzie. I think the main factor will be health. Second will be a good start.
Max (40) - DD (15) - PAP (25) = 80
I see no reason to think Max won't hit 40 this year if he plays a full season. A better start should cinch it. Fifteen goals for DD is a snap. I don't know enough about PAP to discuss his play making ability, but his numbers show him to be able to set up as well score. He's something of a late bloomer. It takes skill to be able to play with skill players. You can't just throw a grunt out there and expect success. He's show an ability to produce with skilled players in NYI and Denver, while not being atrocious defensively (on teams not known for good defensive play). Twenty should be a lock, 25 should be accessible.
Gallagher (20) - Agal (20) - Prust (10) = 50
I'm not sure who's going to start the year on that line. With Weise, Moen, Prust, and Malhotra you've got 4 guys for the 4th line. Weise and Prust have shown the ability to be more. Prust played with the kids in their rookie season. There's familiarity there. He's pretty responsible defensively. He can play all 3 forward positions. Might be some growing pains to start, but the line will get better as the year goes on.
Eller (15) - Plekanec (20) - Bourque (20) = 55
Eller and Bourque have undeniable chemistry. We've got too many centers. Eller plays another year on the wing until mgt figures out what to do with the glut.
Weise (8) - Malhotra (10) - Moen (5) = 23
Weise's speed, work ethic, and hands should net him 8 in a strictly 4th line role. I see him as a guy who can be moved up and down line up as needed given his assets. Malhotra is good for 10 goals a year. Moen is on the decline. He could be the 13th forward. Sekac will start the year in Hamilton unless he outplays Bournival in camp.
That's 208 goals from the forwards. Balanced. No real leaps of faith, except for maybe Bourque.
Subban (15) - would be a career high Markov (10) - we'll need them Emelin (7) - he's moving back to his natural left side and I think we'll see him break out a bit Gilbert (5) - on par with his career average Weaver (4) - scored 1 in 17 regular season and 1 in 17 playoff games. Beaulieu(4) - splits time with Tinordi, goals on PP. Tinordi (1) - not there to score
46 from the defense. 254 total. 15 from Subban may be a stretch. I think there's decent forward depth to find some goals from in the event of injury. If Subban or Markov go down, we're screwed in more ways than one.
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Post by Boston_Habs on Sept 25, 2014 10:35:29 GMT -5
Makes you think the upside is there for this group to score at a much higher rate than we did last year, but like Doc said we are going to have to play a style that suits this team, aggressive, up tempo, puck control, better transition, etc. Can Therrien coach that team?
Hopefully Berg and the rest of management didn't get deluded by our strong finish and deep playoff run. We had serious problems on offense last year and Therrien was one of them. It looked like a he "got it" in the playoffs where even he realized that we were better off with Beaulieu on the ice than Boo Boo or Doug Murray, but coaches like MT tend to be risk-averse and default to their natural view of how to play the game.
I will say that if we sh!t the bed again when it comes to offense, then MT needs to go. When a team is producing well below it's potential then you have to look at coaching, systems, leadership. That's assuming you believe the Habs have the talent to be an above average offensive team and I do.
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Post by Doc Holliday on Sept 25, 2014 11:35:22 GMT -5
I think Therrien can coach a more offensive system. In the 2012-2013 season HABS scored 149 goals in 48 games which projects to 254 goals over 82 games. Last season’s lack of goals was propelled IMO by 3 major elements: #1 Briere totally not working out on this team, #2 DD/Pax slumping to an unbelievable level for the first 20 games (which had a lot to do with #1) and #3 Eller completely drying up offensively after 10 games. Therrien had to adapt to these realities.
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Post by Skilly on Sept 25, 2014 14:13:40 GMT -5
You guys are a lot more optimistic than I am ... over the last three full NHL seasons, there is usually only 3, 4, or 5 players in the league that score 40 or more goals. I don't see anyone on Montreal scoring 40.
The numbers in brackets are the players career high goals.
Pacioretty (39) - Desharnais (16) - Parenteau (20) - So matching their career highs will give rise to 75 goals on the first line. Whenever we do these prognostications people tend to ignore the possibility of players getting injured, lines being switched, etc. There is no such thing as a linear progression of production in sports. If we want to look at career averages, well that's something I can jump on-board with. Also, for every goal that PAP and DD score above their career average, I think it is a safe bet that takes away from Pacioretty's production. Some may argue that, but it is something I have noticed over the years ... Right now I see this line getting 65 goals. 30-15-20.
Sekac ( ) - Plekanec (29) - Galchenyuk (13) - Yes, I have Sekac making this team. His chemistry with Plekanec can not be ignored, I just hope they realize that both of them are pass-first players and they find them a shooter. I don't think anyone here sees Plekanec reaching anywhere near his career high of 29 goals, but he is a safe bet for around 20. Sekac, being a rookie, I dont think can be counted on for more than 15 goals. That's real optimistic. The key here is that whoever they put on this line HAS to crash and bang or shoot like crazy. I think it will be either Galchenyuk or Gallagher .... who ever it is needs to pot 25 goals (a career high). That would giove them 60 goals. and would give us TWO balanced scoring lines, which is crucial in my opinion.
Gallagher (19) - Eller (16) - Bourque (27) - Again there is no way that Bourque scores his career high; heck, he struggles to stay healthy and score 10 since arriving in Montreal. I think it is a pie-in-the-sky to think he is suddenly going to get it, and score 15-20 goals. I'd pencil Bourqu in for 10 goals, and even that is a career high as a Hab. It's high time Eller showed up. I want to say he will get 20, but again, the analytics side of me asks why all of a sudden the habs are going to have 6-7 20 goal scorers? They won't, and it is just as well we accept it. Eller will net close to his career high 16. Gallagher on the third line could give these guys a boost and who knows, maybe they all get close to 20 ... for now I am going to say he get 18. That's 48 gaols
Weise (4) - Malholtra (14) - Prust (13) - Malholtra and Prust both had one good year, but for the most part Maloltra average about 10 goals and Prust averages 5. On the fourth line however, Malholtra's average drops to about 7. The fourth line will be lucky to score 20 goals.
65+60+48+20 = 193
The defense has to score 47 goals; Last year the defense scored 24 goals
So we need EVERYBODY to play to their average and 6 guys to get career bests .... 240 is going to be tough. But I've been wrong many times before
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Sept 25, 2014 14:40:57 GMT -5
I think Therrien can coach a more offensive system. In the 2012-2013 season HABS scored 149 goals in 48 games which projects to 254 goals over 82 games. Last season’s lack of goals was propelled IMO by 3 major elements: #1 Briere totally not working out on this team, #2 DD/Pax slumping to an unbelievable level for the first 20 games (which had a lot to do with #1) and #3 Eller completely drying up offensively after 10 games. Therrien had to adapt to these realities. I think he can, too, Doc ... I'd add a fourth element, though ... I'd like to see a change in Therrien's double-standard for treating his players ... Subban gets benched for the most minute of mistakes while his veterans can make as many errors they want and not miss a shift ... to his credit Subban kept his mouth shut and sucked it up because had he gone public with it, it would have turned into a media Scheiße Sturm ... neither he nor the team needed that kind of distraction ... that said, if Therrien can get over his obsession with Subban, I'll be expecting big things from him this year ... can they score 25 more goals? ... I honestly think we'll need another top-six kind of player to do that but, really, I don't know ... that said, I want to see what all the hype is about surrounding Sekac ... is he a bigger version of Martin Havlat? ... PA Parenteau, eh? ... he should contribute more than Briere did, or at least I'm hoping for that ... I'm really hoping Lars Eller has a good year but, at the same time, I don't see him being a big goal scorer ... lots of ifs for this year but I'm expecting big things from them ... Cheers.
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Post by seventeen on Sept 25, 2014 14:46:54 GMT -5
Pacioretty--37 Gallagher--25 Galchenyuk--20 Plekanec--20 Parenteau--20 Eller--20 Desharnais--15 Bourque--15 Bournival--10 (or Sekac) Malhotra--7 Weise--6 Prust--5 Moen--2 Subban--15 Markov--10 Beaulieu--4 Emelin--3 Gilbert--3 Weaver--2 Tinordi--1 Total--240 Reasonable? I don't think those are unreasonable at all. I don't think we're looking at career years for anyone, really. Patches is less than last year, DD is at his normal pace and 20 goals for Parenteau has been his pace the last 4or 5 years. If that line has real chemistry they can do even better, but those numbers are not optimistic at all. Pleks at 20 is normal and with reduced PK duty that could be conservative. Sekac is an unknown of course, but you're not slotting him for 20-30 goals. Ten seems very doable. Gallagher at 20 is just normal progression for me. I honestly think he'll get 25. I'll put Eller, Galchy and Bourque together, though Bourque and Galchy both play left wing. (Should we try Galchy at right wing and have him cutting in on his off wing? Offensively, that would be dynamite, but would require adjustments defensively). Eller is your most optimistic push, going up from 14-15 goals per year to 20. Once again, Malhotra may help here as both Eller and Pleks will spend less time on the PK, allowing more offensive minded time. I think Eller will be a perpetual 20 goal guy from now on, but I've been a big fan of his for a while and that might be stretching it. Given you've been conservative with the guys above, a let is allowable on Eller. The probabilities may not be there, but it's not stretching the imagination. Galchy has to score 20. I think it will be more, myself. I think he'll get 25 and won't be surprised if its 30. He got some dirty goals in the playoffs on his return, when he really wasn't 100%, Which showed the aggression and desire was all there. Yup, I'd say 25 for him, so your 20 is well within bounds. Bourque? Ok I'm biased, but give him 10 bouncing off his butt into the net. The 4th line is safe. Prust only played about half of the last 2 seasons because of injury, so his 6 is a safe bet. I think Prust will not need to play as rambunctiously this year and won't be as injured. The whole league is getting away from goonishness and even Brian McGrattan turned into a scorer last night instead of a goon. He helped out a teammate in a scrum, but it was more to even things out and he wasn't aggressive in doing so. I really think we're going to have solid, good checking games with less fighting. So we can even say the 4th line's numbers are very modest with upside. Thirty eight goals from the defense? Sounds fine. So this scenario sounds like its easily managed, but of course, you have to take injuries into account. This is where Montreal's depth really comes into play. I think we're in trouble goal wise if Patches, Galchenyuk, PK, Markov and perhaps Gallagher get hurt. The other guys can be replaced with little or no drop off in scoring by others on the roster or by call-ups from Hamilton. Patches and Galchy can't have their natural abilities replaced. PK's and Markov's playmaking can't be replaced. Gallagher's tenacity and leadership in that way can't be replaced. If those guys lose more than a combined 30 games, then it will be tough to get our 240 goals. If they're reasonably healthy, I think 240 goals will be achieved.
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Post by Doc Holliday on Sept 25, 2014 15:16:37 GMT -5
I think Therrien can coach a more offensive system. In the 2012-2013 season HABS scored 149 goals in 48 games which projects to 254 goals over 82 games. Last season’s lack of goals was propelled IMO by 3 major elements: #1 Briere totally not working out on this team, #2 DD/Pax slumping to an unbelievable level for the first 20 games (which had a lot to do with #1) and #3 Eller completely drying up offensively after 10 games. Therrien had to adapt to these realities. I think he can, too, Doc ... I'd add a fourth element, though ... I'd like to see a change in Therrien's double-standard for treating his players ... Subban gets benched for the most minute of mistakes while his veterans can make as many errors they want and not miss a shift ... to his credit Subban kept his mouth shut and sucked it up because had he gone public with it, it would have turned into a media Scheiße Sturm ... neither he nor the team needed that kind of distraction ... that said, if Therrien can get over his obsession with Subban, I'll be expecting big things from him this year ... can they score 25 more goals? ... I honestly think we'll need another top-six kind of player to do that but, really, I don't know ... that said, I want to see what all the hype is about surrounding Sekac ... is he a bigger version of Martin Havlat? ... PA Parenteau, eh? ... he should contribute more than Briere did, or at least I'm hoping for that ... I'm really hoping Lars Eller has a good year but, at the same time, I don't see him being a big goal scorer ... lots of ifs for this year but I'm expecting big things from them ... Cheers. Many ifs for sure. Lots of offense could come from Galchenyuk exploding (a la Seguin) but he'll have to be given the opportunity to do so... From the one game I saw Sekac play I thought he was very good at protecting the puck and kept his feet moving all the time. As Skilly mentions he may be more of a guy looking to setup linesmates though...but as I often said last season I felt that Gionta's "shoot from anywhere, anytime" style was continually killing that line's offensive momentum 5on5. I could see Pleks goals total increase with Sekac. I had strong reservations on Parenteau when we acquired him but it seems like he clicked right away with Pax/DD, something that never happenned with Briere even in camp.
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Post by Boston_Habs on Sept 25, 2014 15:41:57 GMT -5
Yes, I have Sekac making this team. And no Bournival? I can't really see a scenario where both Sekac and Bournival are part of this team. The 4th line is more than set with the likes of Malhotra, Prust, Weise, and Moen. The top 9 has 8 locked in guys (DD, Pax, PAP, Pleks, Gallagher, Galchenyuk, Eller, Bourque) so you can add either Sekac or Bournival but not both. I haven't seen Sekac play, but I really love what Bournival brings to the table and that's great forechecking... the best on the team if you ask me. Of course his energy and commitment level can't be anything less than 100%, but I would hate to lose that quality for a guy like Sekac, who seems OK, but doesn't give you anything special.
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Post by Boston_Habs on Sept 25, 2014 15:50:21 GMT -5
Oh, and unless I counted wrong the Habs were 34-4 last year in games where they scored at least 3 goals. It's a pretty simple formula for success.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Sept 25, 2014 16:55:54 GMT -5
I think he can, too, Doc ... I'd add a fourth element, though ... I'd like to see a change in Therrien's double-standard for treating his players ... Subban gets benched for the most minute of mistakes while his veterans can make as many errors they want and not miss a shift ... to his credit Subban kept his mouth shut and sucked it up because had he gone public with it, it would have turned into a media Scheiße Sturm ... neither he nor the team needed that kind of distraction ... that said, if Therrien can get over his obsession with Subban, I'll be expecting big things from him this year ... can they score 25 more goals? ... I honestly think we'll need another top-six kind of player to do that but, really, I don't know ... that said, I want to see what all the hype is about surrounding Sekac ... is he a bigger version of Martin Havlat? ... PA Parenteau, eh? ... he should contribute more than Briere did, or at least I'm hoping for that ... I'm really hoping Lars Eller has a good year but, at the same time, I don't see him being a big goal scorer ... lots of ifs for this year but I'm expecting big things from them ... Cheers. Many ifs for sure. Lots of offense could come from Galchenyuk exploding (a la Seguin) but he'll have to be given the opportunity to do so... From the one game I saw Sekac play I thought he was very good at protecting the puck and kept his feet moving all the time. As Skilly mentions he may be more of a guy looking to setup linesmates though...but as I often said last season I felt that Gionta's "shoot from anywhere, anytime" style was continually killing that line's offensive momentum 5on5. I could see Pleks goals total increase with Sekac. I had strong reservations on Parenteau when we acquired him but it seems like he clicked right away with Pax/DD, something that never happenned with Briere even in camp. Still can't believe that Bergevin found a taker for Briere ... that said, I'm not expecting outstanding things from Parenteau but if he produces the way he did in Long Island that will be a major bonus ... hopefully he's motivated by being close to home (Ottawa/Hull) to raise his game another notch ... I think Galchenyuk will need the opportunity to break out ... 'if' he sticks at centre it may be at the expense of someone else ... looking forward to seeing how our new defence corps fairs ... if there's a strong transition game I'm thinking it will go a long way to getting to that 240-goal mark BH is hoping for ... Cheers.
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Post by seventeen on Sept 25, 2014 16:59:55 GMT -5
Yes, I have Sekac making this team. And no Bournival? I can't really see a scenario where both Sekac and Bournival are part of this team. The 4th line is more than set with the likes of Malhotra, Prust, Weise, and Moen. The top 9 has 8 locked in guys (DD, Pax, PAP, Pleks, Gallagher, Galchenyuk, Eller, Bourque) so you can add either Sekac or Bournival but not both. I haven't seen Sekac play, but I really love what Bournival brings to the table and that's great forechecking... the best on the team if you ask me. Of course his energy and commitment level can't be anything less than 100%, but I would hate to lose that quality for a guy like Sekac, who seems OK, but doesn't give you anything special. My guess, and fervent hope, is that Bourque ends up being the odd man out. He may be pencilled in right now, but I think he's the guy facing the most risk. Sekac is going to be given every opportunity and Bournival is simply going to keep improving and demand a spot (through his play, not his mouth). I think everyone else brings enough to our game that they're safe. Bourque is skating on thin ice IMO. I wonder if he realizes that?
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Post by seventeen on Sept 25, 2014 17:03:20 GMT -5
looking forward to seeing how our new defence corps fairs ... if there's a strong transition game I'm thinking it will go a long way to getting to that 240-goal mark BH is hoping for ... Cheers. Yes, Dis. Diaz no longer in the line-up, Murray no longer in the line-up, Gorges no longer in the line-up, Bouillon....I pray will no longer be in the line-up. Those are guys who helped us spend a lot of time in our end last year. Less time in our end, more time in the other zones of the ice where our chances of scoring are much better. That alone has to help the scoring.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Sept 25, 2014 17:20:44 GMT -5
And no Bournival? I can't really see a scenario where both Sekac and Bournival are part of this team. The 4th line is more than set with the likes of Malhotra, Prust, Weise, and Moen. The top 9 has 8 locked in guys (DD, Pax, PAP, Pleks, Gallagher, Galchenyuk, Eller, Bourque) so you can add either Sekac or Bournival but not both. I haven't seen Sekac play, but I really love what Bournival brings to the table and that's great forechecking... the best on the team if you ask me. Of course his energy and commitment level can't be anything less than 100%, but I would hate to lose that quality for a guy like Sekac, who seems OK, but doesn't give you anything special. My guess, and fervent hope, is that Bourque ends up being the odd man out. He may be pencilled in right now, but I think he's the guy facing the most risk. Sekac is going to be given every opportunity and Bournival is simply going to keep improving and demand a spot (through his play, not his mouth). I think everyone else brings enough to our game that they're safe. Bourque is skating on thin ice IMO. I wonder if he realizes that? I can't see the game tonight (supporting live comedy) ... I had a chance to look over tonight's lineup and I don't see Bowman on it (that's if the lineup I saw was accurate) ... watch for him the next time he's in the lineup ... best-case scenario for me would be to see Bowman/Bournival push Bergevin into placing a couple of veterans on Waivers come the end of training camp ... Cheers.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Sept 25, 2014 18:10:25 GMT -5
Pacioretty--37 Gallagher--25 Galchenyuk--20 Plekanec--20 Parenteau--20 Eller--20Desharnais--15 Bourque--15 Bournival--10 (or Sekac)Malhotra--7 Weise--6 Prust--5 Moen--2 Subban--15 Markov--10 Beaulieu--4 Emelin--3 Gilbert--3 Weaver--2 Tinordi--1 Total--240 Reasonable? It's very reasonable ... good post ... this team can achieve great successes if they can remain healthy ... the players I've highlighted are the ones I have concerns about ... I'm hoping Lars Eller can bring his game to the next level ... I just couldn't tell you with Bourque ... might see some production if Bournival were to see second-line status ... he did well with Pleks and Gio ... I'm hearing this will be a very good first-pass defence corps ... anything less than a Cup from Subban is now unacceptable, but that's me ... it's like the team is literally a work in progress ... Bergevin just keeps the machine going ... I'm expecting a lot this year, BH, and I think that's reasonable, too ... the leadership just shifted to the new guard ... watch the younger guys take this team ... the team now belongs to Subban, Price, Pacioretty ... thanks to Gainey and Gauthier, but unlike in their tenures, the team now is continually evolving ... we're going to score more goals, I just don't know who will pot them ... Cheers.
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Post by CentreHice on Sept 25, 2014 18:22:52 GMT -5
Oh, and unless I counted wrong the Habs were 34-4 last year in games where they scored at least 3 goals. It's a pretty simple formula for success. Yes, the grail should be at least 3 actual goals per game, not just a 3.00 average. Even though a 3.00 avg. is great in today's game and will likely get you to the playoffs….with the right goaltending and other defensive systems in place, that is.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Sept 26, 2014 12:45:40 GMT -5
Hopefully Berg and the rest of management didn't get deluded by our strong finish and deep playoff run. A cut and paste from NHL.com:"We're back to square one now," Bergevin said. "Even though we reached the conference final, it means nothing. It doesn't mean that we start ahead of everybody else other than the Rangers. [The] Washington [Capitals] will be better. I'm going to go all those teams. They're all going to be better. They're all going to try to beat us, so our first goal … is to make the [Stanley Cup] Playoffs. That's reality.Cheers.
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