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Post by CentreHice on Mar 10, 2015 23:02:11 GMT -5
We have a goalie playing out of his mind....arguably the best in the world right now.
We've got defence figured out fairly well....bolstered by Petry.
If the road trip wasn't a wake-up call...the Tampa game SHOULD be.
IMO, the final 15 games should be used to find goals to support our Vezina/Hart goaltender.
We have a ton of interchangeable 3rd and 4th liners....and TWO are on the first line! Continuing with that combo in the face of the evidence is pure folly.
Make the Top 6 your best Top 6.
Going forward, I suggest (without bringing up a hot hand from Hamilton)....
Max - Pleks - DLR
Galchy - Eller - Gallagher (Yep, put the EGG line back together.)
Weise - DD - DSP
Prust - Mitchell - Flynn
If teams take liberties with DLR....then switch him with DSP for a few shifts.
Other suggestions? We don't have the offensive talent to win a Cup....likely not even the East...but you have to ice your best chance.
The goals are going to have to come from somewhere. Otherwise, get ready for all Carey all the time.
Still missing that stud #1 centre....and there's nobody in the system.
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Post by seventeen on Mar 11, 2015 1:08:31 GMT -5
I've been waiting to make up the lines, but Berg won't let me!
Max - Eller - Parenteau Galchy - Pleks - Gallagher DD - DLR - DSP Prust - Flynn - Weise that leaves Mitchell as the odd man out, but he can swap in for Parenteau, if that doesn't work out. Parenteau is still our most natural scoring Right Winger and needs to be used in that top 6. You could swap Eller or Pleks on the first two lines and I'd like to have Mitchell in there somewhere, but the scoring woes are so bad that we have to loosen up on the defensive side and boost the offense. When Emelin's ready, I don't mind sitting Gonchar and maybe have Petry and Gilbert along with Emelin and Beaulieu, or one could switch Beau with Gilbert. I think Beau plays better on the 2nd pair than the third.
I take back what I said about loosening up the defensive system. I just read that we're 21st in shots against and 24th in shot attempts against. Basically, defensively, we suck and we're where we are because of Carey. Can't afford to loosen up.
Price is the ultimate foundation cream, covering up all our warts.
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Post by CentreHice on Mar 11, 2015 8:49:01 GMT -5
Yeah, forgot about PAP….but if he's part of the plans, it certainly doesn't look like it….unless he's not fully recovered from the concussion.
If we could find goals….the defense should be just fine with Price back there.
If not, then we're really no better than the Mannequin days of over-relying on Halak in 2010.
Either we don't have the talent up front….or MT is errant in his coaching.
I look at the PP and just shake my head.
By the reports I heard, Price was NOT a happy camper last night.
With displays like last night's, we run the risk of burning out his fire.
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Post by blny on Mar 11, 2015 8:53:54 GMT -5
If PAP plays, there's not point in having him in the bottom six. I liked Agal on the right side. It made sense to me. DD on the wing worked too. Alas, I don't think we're going to find 'new' scoring till the off season. Until then, we'll have to live with the ups and downs.
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Post by CentreHice on Mar 11, 2015 9:00:34 GMT -5
If PAP plays, there's not point in having him in the bottom six. I liked Agal on the right side. It made sense to me. DD on the wing worked too. Alas, I don't think we're going to find 'new' scoring till the off season. Until then, we'll have to live with the ups and downs. Then the comments in last night's PGT from seventeen and BH about Therrien not able/willing to come up with new strategies is likely appropriate. Will we have any hair/fingernails left? Just heard a Subban comment from last night, "Sometimes your best defence is offence, and for the next 15 games we have to work on that."That better be Therrien's line of thinking, too.
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Post by blny on Mar 11, 2015 10:14:36 GMT -5
I'm already bald lol.
I'm in the camp that thinks they win despite Therrien on many a night. No secret there. He's too often a square peg in a round hole type of coach. We'll see what happens if Berg can find him a legit scoring threat, but as long as we have a goon coaching the powerplay we're giving up a potential .5 goals per game right there. Maybe more.
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Post by CentreHice on Mar 11, 2015 10:22:36 GMT -5
I'm already bald lol. I'm in the camp that thinks they win despite Therrien on many a night. No secret there. He's too often a square peg in a round hole type of coach. We'll see what happens if Berg can find him a legit scoring threat, but as long as we have a goon coaching the powerplay we're giving up a potential .5 goals per game right there. Maybe more. Therrien had an offensive juggernaut in Pittsburgh and still got fired. Bylsma came in and not only did their GF/G go up, but their GA/G went down. I did a review of that 2008-09 season a while back. Therrien coached 57 games. Record: 27-25-5 GF per game: 3.05 GA per game: 3.07 Bylsma coached 25 games. Record: 18-3-4 GF per game: 3.64 GA per game: 2.56 The team improved in both GF and GA. In the playoffs--24 games played. GF per game: 3.39 GA per game: 2.66 Perhaps Subban is on to something when he said last night: Sometimes a good offence serves as a good defence. Even more so when you have the best goaltender in the known universe. Instead, we sit back and Price faces a barrage with little goal support. Blame Bergevin, perhaps, for not getting a scoring winger at the deadline, but as the above stats suggest, it might not have made a difference anyway unless Therrien is willing to use him correctly.
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Post by franko on Mar 11, 2015 10:34:57 GMT -5
I guess PAP's agent had some comments/sent out a text last night, something to the effect that the Habs want goals but sit him.
I don't think he's an MT fan (he is Sekac's agent too).
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Post by Willie Dog on Mar 11, 2015 10:43:44 GMT -5
The system being used is the issue. Habs-Lightning post gameThere is some interesting info in this article, below is what I found most interesting
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Post by CentreHice on Mar 11, 2015 10:58:40 GMT -5
Thanks WD.
Which is perhaps the reason he was let go in Pittsburgh. Their overall game was being hindered by safety first…instead of releasing the hounds when appropriate.
I don't know….
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Post by jkr on Mar 11, 2015 11:14:32 GMT -5
I guess PAP's agent had some comments/sent out a text last night, something to the effect that the Habs want goals but sit him. I don't think he's an MT fan (he is Sekac's agent too). Parenteau was in something like a 1 goal in 20 game slump before the injury and was providing no offense. Can't see him being the answer.
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Post by franko on Mar 11, 2015 11:21:03 GMT -5
I guess PAP's agent had some comments/sent out a text last night, something to the effect that the Habs want goals but sit him. I don't think he's an MT fan (he is Sekac's agent too). Parenteau was in something like a 1 goal in 20 game slump before the injury and was providing no offense. Can't see him being the answer. that was my thought too. mind you, he was scoring on par with everyone not named Max.
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Post by CentreHice on Mar 11, 2015 11:34:16 GMT -5
No practice today.
That should help.
Expect no lineup changes against the Sens.
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Post by blny on Mar 11, 2015 11:43:44 GMT -5
Great find WD.
It's hard to be sure if PAP is the 'answer'. He got off to a slow start, like DD and Max. The difference was that his slow start saw him demoted to checking roles. As we've discussed about other players, it's hard to score when you're asked to stop others from scoring and/or you're playing with guys that have limited offensive skills. That juggling, and the injury that followed, has meant PAP doesn't have a 'home' on the roster.
It's really hard for players to flip the switch this far into a disaster of a season. I don't see PAP being able to, and he certainly won't if he's not given time in a top 6 role. If staff deem that he's not doing enough, sit him in favor of someone else. Call up Hudon or Andrighetto and see if they spark something.
Oh, that's right. We're a 'grinding team'.
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Post by Willie Dog on Mar 11, 2015 11:59:30 GMT -5
Thanks WD. Which is perhaps the reason he was let go in Pittsburgh. Their overall game was being hindered by safety first…instead of releasing the hounds when appropriate. I don't know…. It also explains why offensive guys have their numbers drop... there are exceptions though (Patches)... If the Habs had landed Kessel, his offensive output would have dropped because it would have been defense first IMO. I also think the loss of Gallant hurts a lot more than anybody knows... IMO, he's a players coach and I'm sure the players could talk to him. Might explain why, to the media anyways, MT is a kindler and gentler coach to the players this years than in previous years. He goes out of his way not to criticize, puts a positive spin on things (last nights game is a perfect example)
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Post by seventeen on Mar 11, 2015 14:02:50 GMT -5
That article points out some things I've been harping about, but with more evidence than my opinion and with more logic. I've got a good analogy from my investment background. We all want to retire with enough saved up that we can maintain a reasonable life style (good food, good wine) after we stop working for a living. A safe way to do that is to invest in T-bills, bonds and other safe investments. The alternative is to take risks and buy stocks, or other more volatile investments. The differences between the two is that with the safe strategy, you're giving up growth, so it may take you 150 years to have enough money to retire. Short term gain (safety) realized at the cost of long term pain (dead before you're ever able to retire). What looks safe is actually guaranteed failure. That's our system.
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Post by CentreHice on Mar 11, 2015 14:16:51 GMT -5
The article is bang-on, IMO. Except for the 1-3-1 record in our last 5 games. We're actually 1-2-2. The only win coming against the lowly Coyotes…and we still needed Price to get a shutout.
And while the stat sheet says 6 goals scored…do we really count the empty netter in Glendale with 2 seconds left?
More like 5 goals in 5 games….3 of them vs. the Kings…when we decided to hit and up-the-tempo….taking the game to L.A.
I was really buoyed by the last 25 minutes of that game.
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Post by The Habitual Fan on Mar 11, 2015 14:21:18 GMT -5
I agree that Therrien is going to have to relax the defensive style a little and try to get some more offence going but I'm not about to become a coach basher. If you look the roster recently they have made the additions of Del la Rose, Petry, Flynn, Mitchell, Smith-Pelly and that is quarter of the roster. Del La Rose is the veteran Hab there being 19 years old and playing 18 games while the other guys have yet to sleep in their own beds since joining the team. I know I go away for two days I'm three days behind when I get home and these guys are looking places to live and upsetting families. Add to that the large minutes Markov, Subban, Patches, and some others have been playing and fatigue and burn out is going to happen. I would like to see over the next couple of weeks the team start to use their depth and rotate more guys in and out of the line up. Add PAP and sit DD a game or two, insert Weaver in place of Markov a few nights and so on to help get rested going into the playoffs. Galchenyuk probably still has the flu along with jet lag and banged up so giving him 3-4 days off to recover is not going hurt you much in the big picture. I don't care if they finish first but keep home ice advantage and get ready for the next two months of hockey. They had a pretty unsuccessful road trip and first game back but they didn't really play all that bad mostly. If they try to get the team to gel over the next few weeks and change some lines around I don't have a problem with that and if they lose the next 3 out of 4 there is plenty of time to lynch MT again next week.
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Post by Skilly on Mar 11, 2015 14:40:30 GMT -5
How to find goals ... let me count the ways ...
1) Hire a PP specialist coach, right now ... I mean it, go find someone immediately. Cause whoever is coaching the PP hasn't a clue. It's been close on 70 games now and there has been ONE adjustment made all year (the Triangle offense). It worked for 3 games and then gave up on it and went back to the blast from the point.
2) Talk to Subban about his slap shots. Someone, anyone, show the man the stats on how often he hits the net on those shots. It aint pretty. Then someone take his stick and see if it somehow isn't capable of a wrist shot. If it doesn't break, break it, get him a new one, and tell him that if he doesn't start putting the puck on net (with wristers ... and the occasional blast) that Gallagher is breaking all his sticks and he wont be able to play. Cause Gallagher is getting pummelled and for what? To see 80% of Subban's shots sail wide and go out of the zone without a soul touching the puck after he shoots??
3) Teach Plekanec, Desharnais, Eller how to properly conduct a two on one. Show them how the angles get harder the deeper you go. The first pass should be before the blueline, get that defenseman to turn, when he turns you return the pass immediately and voila ... you have a complete breakaway AND a rebound chance AND a give and go opportunity ... just with one simple pass that makes the D-man move ...
4) First periods. Do something , anything to get the players up ... bring in the Chez Paree girls if you have to, but this bunch shows ZERO life in the first period.
5) Get Weise off that first line. The boat has sailed on getting someone legit there. So we are going to have to find an internal solution. Right now, I'd lean towards DLR. We really do not have anyone for that spot. Not if we are hell bent on keeping DD as center. I wonder would it be worth trying:
Desharnais-Plekanec-Pacioretty Galchenyuk-Eller-Gallagher
Anything to get Weise off that line.
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Post by seventeen on Mar 11, 2015 15:18:01 GMT -5
I agree that Therrien is going to have to relax the defensive style a little and try to get some more offence going but I'm not about to become a coach basher. If you look the roster recently they have made the additions of Del la Rose, Petry, Flynn, Mitchell, Smith-Pelly and that is quarter of the roster. Del La Rose is the veteran Hab there being 19 years old and playing 18 games while the other guys have yet to sleep in their own beds since joining the team. I know I go away for two days I'm three days behind when I get home and these guys are looking places to live and upsetting families. Add to that the large minutes Markov, Subban, Patches, and some others have been playing and fatigue and burn out is going to happen. I would like to see over the next couple of weeks the team start to use their depth and rotate more guys in and out of the line up. Add PAP and sit DD a game or two, insert Weaver in place of Markov a few nights and so on to help get rested going into the playoffs. Galchenyuk probably still has the flu along with jet lag and banged up so giving him 3-4 days off to recover is not going hurt you much in the big picture. I don't care if they finish first but keep home ice advantage and get ready for the next two months of hockey. They had a pretty unsuccessful road trip and first game back but they didn't really play all that bad mostly. If they try to get the team to gel over the next few weeks and change some lines around I don't have a problem with that and if they lose the next 3 out of 4 there is plenty of time to lynch MT again next week. He doesn't have to be lynched, but he does have to change his tactics. We could trade for Crosby and he'd turn into a 60 point guy, because of our system. It's happened to everyone that's come here. They score worse than they did before coming here and that isn't a coincidence. We're bottom third in defensive categories except goaltending. We don't have a talent issue, but the talent isn't being used wisely. This over emphasis on 'safety', and not our talent level, will kill our chances at a cup.
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Post by Polarice on Mar 11, 2015 15:19:27 GMT -5
I would like to try
PAP-Galchenyuk-Pacioretty DLR-Plekanec-Gallagher DD-Eller-DSP Prust-Mitchell-Flynn
Weise to pop in and out when needed.
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Post by BadCompany on Mar 11, 2015 15:20:23 GMT -5
I think it's too easy to blame Therrien for our lack of scoring. I'm not saying he is not without faults, but he doesn't exactly have a bunch of snipers on his team you know. Aside from Pacioretty, who is a proven scorer?
Galchenyuk? Hopefully soon, but he's only 20.
Gallagher? He should break 20 this year, but he's still only 22, and while I love the guy I personally don't think he's a natural 30 goal guy. 20-25, sure. Which is where he is at.
Who else?
Plekanec? He's on pace for more or less his yearly average. His career ppg is .65, right now its .67.
Desharnais? Right where he should be, points-wise, given his talent and physical limitations.
Eller? Has never scored more than 18 goals, at any level. NHL, AHL, or SEL.
De La Rose? See Eller. He had 6 goals in the AHL this season, after 7 the year before in Sweden, and 6 the year before that. I like DLR, he looks really professional, but is he a sniper? Not based on his history.
Parenteau? Perhaps, but as noted he was in the midst of a 20 game slump, and his numbers have been steadily declining for four years now, only one of which was under Therrien.
Sekac? He had 11 goals in the KHL last year, 4 in the Czech Republic the year before that. Did he finally "get it?" Or does he just look flashy? He has yet to score a goal in Anaheim, after 7 games.
If Therrien is holding everybody back, why is it that the players that leave here don't start lighting it up? Vanek (last night aside) has been a disappointment in Minnesota, Bourque is Bourque, and Briere has been a healthy scratch (and with less points than Parenteau). Gionta, Moen, Diaz, Gorges, nothing. The ONLY player I could find who is doing better offensively after having been released from the Therrien shackles is Ryan White, who has 3 goals this year compared to the 2 he scored last.
It's easy to blame the coach, but it's quite possible that he too looks at the lineup and thinks "where are the goals going to come from?" Aside from Galchenyuk and maybe Gallagher there aren't a lot of players who are underachieving compared to the numbers they historically put up.
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Post by seventeen on Mar 11, 2015 15:24:17 GMT -5
How to find goals ... let me count the ways ... 5) Get Weise off that first line. The boat has sailed on getting someone legit there. So we are going to have to find an internal solution. Right now, I'd lean towards DLR. We really do not have anyone for that spot. Not if we are hell bent on keeping DD as center. I wonder would it be worth trying: Desharnais-Plekanec-Pacioretty Galchenyuk-Eller-Gallagher Anything to get Weise off that line. Good suggestions overall Skilly. I'd go a bit further on that first line. I just don't think Desharnais can play there either at centre or wing. If he's on there, he'll still be looking for Max instead of the whole repertoire of options available to him. Bring him down a couple of lines, where he feels he'll have to generate offense on his own. I still think we're shuffling deck chairs until we change our systems. Without allowing to come up the middle, we'll not have the puck a lot and we'll be chasing and chasing and spending way too much time in our end. It's the one thing that Therrien can do that will make an impact throughout the line-up. Trouble is, is it too late? Can we adjust quickly enough. And beside that, will he have any incentive to change his system. If he hasn't gotten it now after 2 years of Carey carrying him on his back, I don't think he'll adapt.
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Post by seventeen on Mar 11, 2015 15:40:14 GMT -5
I think it's too easy to blame Therrien for our lack of scoring. I'm not saying he is not without faults, but he doesn't exactly have a bunch of snipers on his team you know. Aside from Pacioretty, who is a proven scorer? Galchenyuk? Hopefully soon, but he's only 20. Gallagher? He should break 20 this year, but he's still only 22, and while I love the guy I personally don't think he's a natural 30 goal guy. 20-25, sure. Which is where he is at. Who else? Plekanec? He's on pace for more or less his yearly average. His career ppg is .65, right now its .67. Desharnais? Right where he should be, points-wise, given his talent and physical limitations. Eller? Has never scored more than 18 goals, at any level. NHL, AHL, or SEL. De La Rose? See Eller. He had 6 goals in the AHL this season, after 7 the year before in Sweden, and 6 the year before that. I like DLR, he looks really professional, but is he a sniper? Not based on his history. Parenteau? Perhaps, but as noted he was in the midst of a 20 game slump, and his numbers have been steadily declining for four years now, only one of which was under Therrien. Sekac? He had 11 goals in the KHL last year, 4 in the Czech Republic the year before that. Did he finally "get it?" Or does he just look flashy? He has yet to score a goal in Anaheim, after 7 games. If Therrien is holding everybody back, why is it that the players that leave here don't start lighting it up? Vanek (last night aside) has been a disappointment in Minnesota, Bourque is Bourque, and Briere has been a healthy scratch (and with less points than Parenteau). Gionta, Moen, Diaz, Gorges, nothing. The ONLY player I could find who is doing better offensively after having been released from the Therrien shackles is Ryan White, who has 3 goals this year compared to the 2 he scored last. It's easy to blame the coach, but it's quite possible that he too looks at the lineup and thinks "where are the goals going to come from?" Aside from Galchenyuk and maybe Gallagher there aren't a lot of players who are underachieving compared to the numbers they historically put up. Good points BC. In rebuttal I'll say that Briere is in the tail end of his career and would probably be dropping anyway. I think Vaenk showed that while with us, he wasn't quite the danger we thought. Another factor may simply be that the league as a whole is scoring less. The teams ahead of us in scoring generally have one forward who is elite (Stamkos, Toews/Kane, Tavares, Ovechkin) who can score. Detroit seems to manage it without that younger sniper or PP quarterback, but their PP has been good all year. Is it simply that our PP can't score and with it, we'd be 10 points better? I still don't like how we come out of our end and I don't like how Gallagher and Galchenyuk are not improving. What's the explanation for that? Youth? Could be, or it may be a safety first mantra and culture. Or do we just have to expect that nothing will change until we get that elite scorer? That's pretty depressing and without a barrelful of luck means having a really crappy year and hitting the lottery jackpot. With Price, that isn't going to happen. Does one trade Price? That's an extreme solution, but it seems these days, your chances of winning depend more on scoring than on elite goaltending. Personally, I think our guys are better scorers than they're showing, but they're not spending enough time in scoring positions. The stats suggest that's the case (not spending time in scoring positions). So let's change that before we make any other assumptions.
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Post by frozone on Mar 11, 2015 17:18:46 GMT -5
Personally, I think our guys are better scorers than they're showing, but they're not spending enough time in scoring positions. The stats suggest that's the case (not spending time in scoring positions). So let's change that before we make any other assumptions. Agreed. What I notice a lot is that our forwards spend an enormous amount of time and energy just chasing the puck/opposition. It really bugs me that Galchenyuk, such a skilled player, hustles his butt off yet gets to touch the puck so rarely. Not saying he should stop hustling, but there's more to the game than just given it your 110% all the time (take Max for instance). I checked out the player stats of the top 10 teams in the NHL and every one of them (exception of the Habs) has at least one forward leading the team in assists. The Habs are the only team with not just one, but TWO defensemen as assist leaders. Either we are missing playmakers up front or maybe our playmakers just aren't being given enough opportunity to make plays.
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Post by seventeen on Mar 11, 2015 22:12:29 GMT -5
I often check Habs Eye on the Prize for articles and coincidentally, this one popped up tonight, discussing the very point of this thread (hmmm, suspicious, wot?). To get the best look at the article with its stats, use the link, but I warn you that some of the stats are in really small type. I have trouble understanding them and the conclusions anyway. They didn't cut and paste well, so I've left them off the copy below. Further warning. Andrew Berkshire is really far from being a Michel Therrien fan, so keep that thought in context. I'm not endorsing his thoughts, just throwing them out as a discussion topic. One of the interesting aspects of his choices is that the new lines proposed don't use either of the new guys, Flynn or Mitchell and keep them just as depth. Interesting take. www.habseyesontheprize.com/analysis/2015/3/11/8193887/canadiens-ideal-lineup-michel-therrien-marc-bergevin-lars-ellerThe Montreal Canadiens' ideal forward lineup
By Andrew Berkshire
One of the biggest laments you hear among fans of the Montreal Canadiens is about the amount of line juggling that Michel Therrien does. The weird thing though, is that even with all that line juggling, he still hasn't, at least in my opinion, ever stumbled upon the optimal lineup. He's come close, only to break it up after a couple of shifts, but seems to be most reluctant to break apart the biggest problems.
First of all, let's clarify that we're only talking about forward lines, not defense pairings. Thanks to a new tool built by hockey stats guru David Johnson, we can see how certain lines have played when together over multiple years. Before we get into what's the best, let's look at the current Habs' lines.
Max Pacioretty - David Desharnais - Dale Weise
current line 1
This is the so-called "first line" of the Canadiens. On the surface, it looks pretty good in a smallish sample. They've scored 66.7% of on-ice goals, and carried a 56.8% share of shot attempts. Those are very good, first line worthy numbers. However there are several huge caveats. The line is scoring on 15% of their shots on goal, essentially double the NHL average. Pacioretty is an above average scorer, and Desharnais has a high percentage shot, but not that high. Looking at the shooting percentage of all three players when apart, it's obvious that's more luck than it is effectiveness.
Then there's the zone starts. That line is starting an absurd 73.5% of their time on ice together in the offensive zone, on a team that manages the fifth least offensive zone starts in the NHL. That is a colossal amount of resources to expend on making sure that line produces offensively.
Alex Galchenyuk - Tomas Plekanec - Brendan Gallagher
current line 2
This is a legitimately solid second line. They're still getting more offensive zone starts than defensive ones, but not by much, and they're outperforming them possession-wise. They've been pretty unlucky together when you look at their numbers apart over the last three seasons, but overall, this is a good setup by Therrien. Right now, I would consider this to be the real Habs first line.
Lars Eller - Jacob de la Rose - Devante Smith-Pelly
current line 3
This line has looked pleasing to the eye, but they've been given extraordinarily tough minutes, and been fairly obviously crushed in the process. Ignore the goal based stats in this sample size, but notice that each player is better outside this situation, even in comparatively tough minutes. It's a bad line so far.
Brandon Prust - Torrey Mitchell - Brian Flynn
current 4th line
Miniscule sample size, but burn it with fire. That's a gong show so far, and this sample doesn't include the game against Tampa Bay, where this line was even worse. I'm sure Mitchell is an upgrade on Manny Malhotra, and no offense to him or Flynn, but I'm not sure what Bergevin was thinking trading for two players from a historically bad team and adding them to a first place team. I don't get it. The Optimal Lines
Before the new SuperWOWY tool came about, I had in my head a very specific top-six that would make the Canadiens significantly better, and as it turns out, the stats supported my hypothesis, even if it looks a little out there to a lot of people. Stick with me.
First Line: Max Pacioretty - Lars Eller - Brendan Gallagher
optimal 1st line
When you think about how often Therrien shuffles his lines, it's pretty shocking to think that this line has been together for such a small amount of time over three seasons. Then again, Lars Eller has less ice time with Pacioretty in the last four seasons combined than Dale Weise does this year. Some things don't make sense.
We're dealing with small sample sizes here, but this line absolutely destroyed tough minutes. 65.5% of shot attempts is completely absurd, even more so when it's happening with only 12.5% of your shifts beginning in the offensive zone. This is a line that has the defensive savvy, scoring ability, and forechecking power to matchup against anyone in the NHL, and still produce like mad. Why this has never been tried for a five game stretch or longer is beyond me.
This is a true, power-on-power first line in the NHL, something the Canadiens have lacked for a long time. Any bit of perceived drop in playmaking ability that you lose in swapping Eller in for Desharnais would be heavily outweighed by the forechecking prowess and offensive zone time this line would generate.
Second Line: Alex Galchenyuk - Tomas Plekanec - P.A. Parenteau
line 2
You're probably thinking that you want Galchenyuk to play center, and he will eventually. If the Canadiens keep Plekanec the next few seasons, and I expect they will, don't be surprised to see him moved to the wing at even strength. Plekanec isn't very strong on faceoffs, and even strength is statistically where he's been weakest, while he's the Habs' best special teams player. Moving to the wing could extend his career like it did for Marleau in San Jose.
This is another line that played together this season, but only for a short while, and crushed it. Parenteau is a pass-first player, and he needs his center to be able to shoot, which is why it never worked out with him and Desharnais. Plekanec and Galchenyuk can both do that, which made this line very effective. They got a nice share of offensive zone starts, which would be possible to continue if that first line can take defensive zone matchups and continue killing it.
Third Line: Michael Bournival - David Desharnais - Christian Thomas
line 3
There's nothing statistically to back this line up, they have essentially never played together. What I'm doing to build this line is working logically, with the same reasoning as I used to build the other lines. It's a small line, one that would need offensive sheltering, but you can do that with the improved top-six. All three of these players can produce offense, even if Thomas hasn't hit his offensive stride in the NHL yet. Bournival and Thomas are both voracious forecheckers whose speed disrupts teams, while Desharnais is the puck carrier on this line, who has the freedom to create away from teams' best checkers. Thomas has a hell of a shot, and with Bournival as the mucker on the line, and Desharnais setting him up, I really like the chances of this line being successful.
Fourth Line: Brandon Prust - Jacob de la Rose - Devante Smith-Pelly
line 4
Again, we're dealing with small samples and logically building out, but I like what I see here as well. Prust and de la Rose are both excellent defensively, and all three of these guys are disruptive offensively. They would be unlikely to score a lot, but this is a fourth line very few coaches would be afraid to send over the boards in important situations, and in their few shifts together, they've actually rocked it.
Depending on what you need in certain games, you can swap in Weise, Flynn, or Mitchell, you have that kind of flexibility. Simple reworking of the lines has the Canadiens running three scoring lines, and a fourth line that can chip in as well as their current third line.
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Post by CentreHice on Mar 11, 2015 22:23:45 GMT -5
I think it's too easy to blame Therrien for our lack of scoring. I'm not saying he is not without faults, but he doesn't exactly have a bunch of snipers on his team you know. Aside from Pacioretty, who is a proven scorer? Galchenyuk? Hopefully soon, but he's only 20. Gallagher? He should break 20 this year, but he's still only 22, and while I love the guy I personally don't think he's a natural 30 goal guy. 20-25, sure. Which is where he is at. Who else? Plekanec? He's on pace for more or less his yearly average. His career ppg is .65, right now its .67. Desharnais? Right where he should be, points-wise, given his talent and physical limitations. Eller? Has never scored more than 18 goals, at any level. NHL, AHL, or SEL. De La Rose? See Eller. He had 6 goals in the AHL this season, after 7 the year before in Sweden, and 6 the year before that. I like DLR, he looks really professional, but is he a sniper? Not based on his history. Parenteau? Perhaps, but as noted he was in the midst of a 20 game slump, and his numbers have been steadily declining for four years now, only one of which was under Therrien. Sekac? He had 11 goals in the KHL last year, 4 in the Czech Republic the year before that. Did he finally "get it?" Or does he just look flashy? He has yet to score a goal in Anaheim, after 7 games. If Therrien is holding everybody back, why is it that the players that leave here don't start lighting it up? Vanek (last night aside) has been a disappointment in Minnesota, Bourque is Bourque, and Briere has been a healthy scratch (and with less points than Parenteau). Gionta, Moen, Diaz, Gorges, nothing. The ONLY player I could find who is doing better offensively after having been released from the Therrien shackles is Ryan White, who has 3 goals this year compared to the 2 he scored last. It's easy to blame the coach, but it's quite possible that he too looks at the lineup and thinks "where are the goals going to come from?" Aside from Galchenyuk and maybe Gallagher there aren't a lot of players who are underachieving compared to the numbers they historically put up. Yes, that's an excellent assessment of our forward talent....and it's quite sobering...making Price's case for the Hart all the stronger. But is Therrien icing the best line combos? I don't think he is. Especially when it comes to Pacioretty's linemates. DD loses way more battles than he wins...and Weise just doesn't have the consistent hockey sense and skill to be a #1 winger. Both he and DD have hustle and heart...but they're really third liners on a true contender, if we're being honest. Ya gotta have a legit #1 line. I guess the basic issue is: Is MT setting up the lines to match his philosophy...or open to changing his philosophy and re-organizing the talent to get more goals? It would seem to be the former. The PP is a different story. I like Skilly's idea...go out and hire a PP specialist coach IF such a human exists....and spend a ton of time on it.
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Post by Disp on Mar 12, 2015 0:28:52 GMT -5
I think it's too easy to blame Therrien for our lack of scoring. I'm not saying he is not without faults, but he doesn't exactly have a bunch of snipers on his team you know. Aside from Pacioretty, who is a proven scorer? Galchenyuk? Hopefully soon, but he's only 20. Gallagher? He should break 20 this year, but he's still only 22, and while I love the guy I personally don't think he's a natural 30 goal guy. 20-25, sure. Which is where he is at. Who else? Plekanec? He's on pace for more or less his yearly average. His career ppg is .65, right now its .67. Desharnais? Right where he should be, points-wise, given his talent and physical limitations. Eller? Has never scored more than 18 goals, at any level. NHL, AHL, or SEL. De La Rose? See Eller. He had 6 goals in the AHL this season, after 7 the year before in Sweden, and 6 the year before that. I like DLR, he looks really professional, but is he a sniper? Not based on his history. Parenteau? Perhaps, but as noted he was in the midst of a 20 game slump, and his numbers have been steadily declining for four years now, only one of which was under Therrien. Sekac? He had 11 goals in the KHL last year, 4 in the Czech Republic the year before that. Did he finally "get it?" Or does he just look flashy? He has yet to score a goal in Anaheim, after 7 games. If Therrien is holding everybody back, why is it that the players that leave here don't start lighting it up? Vanek (last night aside) has been a disappointment in Minnesota, Bourque is Bourque, and Briere has been a healthy scratch (and with less points than Parenteau). Gionta, Moen, Diaz, Gorges, nothing. The ONLY player I could find who is doing better offensively after having been released from the Therrien shackles is Ryan White, who has 3 goals this year compared to the 2 he scored last. It's easy to blame the coach, but it's quite possible that he too looks at the lineup and thinks "where are the goals going to come from?" Aside from Galchenyuk and maybe Gallagher there aren't a lot of players who are underachieving compared to the numbers they historically put up. Good stuff. I'll just add that it's the same old thing. Not enough players that can do the dirty work. Our top two centers are poke checkers. It's why Eller gets so many d zone starts. He can knock guys off the puck. Everyone blames the "system". Magical word "system" isn't it? I'd like to know what guys think is so different from other teams "systems". And not "they score more goals so it must be better" either.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Mar 12, 2015 7:58:03 GMT -5
That article points out some things I've been harping about, but with more evidence than my opinion and with more logic. I've got a good analogy from my investment background. We all want to retire with enough saved up that we can maintain a reasonable life style (good food, good wine) after we stop working for a living. A safe way to do that is to invest in T-bills, bonds and other safe investments. The alternative is to take risks and buy stocks, or other more volatile investments. The differences between the two is that with the safe strategy, you're giving up growth, so it may take you 150 years to have enough money to retire. Short term gain (safety) realized at the cost of long term pain (dead before you're ever able to retire). What looks safe is actually guaranteed failure. That's our system. I really like this here ... I found the process of investing changes depending on how well your portfolio does ... when I was younger I was more interested in growth and my investments reflected that ... now that I'm, ahem, older I'm more concerned about stability ... however, with regards to the Habs, I find Bergevin is more concerned about the long-term growth of his club ... he hasn't swung for the fences in the draft like his predecessor, Bob Gainey did (AK, David Fischer) from time to time ... and he clearly has a vision for the future (unlike Rejean Houle) ... I find the Canadiens portfolio to be in a constant state of growth ... there's a problem scoring goals, granted, but it's not so easy finding clubs willing to give up goal scorers ... unless he gets lucky (a la les Islanders) and finds an Anders Lee in the late rounds, overall growth of the organization may slow down, but I suspect it won't stop ... Tevor Timmins adds 'futures' on draft day, while Bergevin adds 'insurance' around the trade deadline ... it might be conservative insurance, but the club keeps moving forward ... Cheers.
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Post by Skilly on Mar 12, 2015 8:19:05 GMT -5
I think it's too easy to blame Therrien for our lack of scoring. I'm not saying he is not without faults, but he doesn't exactly have a bunch of snipers on his team you know. Aside from Pacioretty, who is a proven scorer? Galchenyuk? Hopefully soon, but he's only 20. Gallagher? He should break 20 this year, but he's still only 22, and while I love the guy I personally don't think he's a natural 30 goal guy. 20-25, sure. Which is where he is at. Who else? Plekanec? He's on pace for more or less his yearly average. His career ppg is .65, right now its .67. Desharnais? Right where he should be, points-wise, given his talent and physical limitations. Eller? Has never scored more than 18 goals, at any level. NHL, AHL, or SEL. De La Rose? See Eller. He had 6 goals in the AHL this season, after 7 the year before in Sweden, and 6 the year before that. I like DLR, he looks really professional, but is he a sniper? Not based on his history. Parenteau? Perhaps, but as noted he was in the midst of a 20 game slump, and his numbers have been steadily declining for four years now, only one of which was under Therrien. Sekac? He had 11 goals in the KHL last year, 4 in the Czech Republic the year before that. Did he finally "get it?" Or does he just look flashy? He has yet to score a goal in Anaheim, after 7 games. If Therrien is holding everybody back, why is it that the players that leave here don't start lighting it up? Vanek (last night aside) has been a disappointment in Minnesota, Bourque is Bourque, and Briere has been a healthy scratch (and with less points than Parenteau). Gionta, Moen, Diaz, Gorges, nothing. The ONLY player I could find who is doing better offensively after having been released from the Therrien shackles is Ryan White, who has 3 goals this year compared to the 2 he scored last. It's easy to blame the coach, but it's quite possible that he too looks at the lineup and thinks "where are the goals going to come from?" Aside from Galchenyuk and maybe Gallagher there aren't a lot of players who are underachieving compared to the numbers they historically put up. Good stuff. I'll just add that it's the same old thing. Not enough players that can do the dirty work. Our top two centers are poke checkers. It's why Eller gets so many d zone starts. He can knock guys off the puck. Everyone blames the "system". Magical word "system" isn't it? I'd like to know what guys think is so different from other teams "systems". And not "they score more goals so it must be better" either. Our system is pretty obvious to anyone watching the game. How many times do we carry the puck over the blueline with possession (either blueline)?? Defensively, our system is to throw it around the boards when a forechecker is on you and then to flip the puck out of the zone and try to create turnovers in the neutral zone. Or if a forechecker was not at the halfboards, instead of flipping the puck a long cross ice pass or up the middle to a forward at the red line. How is that diffesent than anyone else? I'll use Tampa game as an example. Tampa's system started out pretty much like ours. They would dump the puck (but theirs seemed more often than not, like a pass instead of a dump) to the half boards, and then they would make a series of short quick passes. Typically, it was a 10 ft pass to the middle to the center, who then quickly got it to the blueline easily to the winger (sometimes the center even skated it out). That winger passed it back to the center before the redline and then the center gained possesion of our blueline prior to passing to the other winger. It worked almost every time. We were like pylons, helpless to keep up with that speed. Offensively, our system is in shambles. What exactly is it? For a team with so much spped we dump and chase it way too much. Not only that, but we hardly ever get in to the puck first. Its a rare thing to see us skate over the oppositions blueline with the puck. An even rarer thing to see us work the puck down low and then to the middle of the ice. We dump it in, attempt to get possession, maybe ccycle it a little and then nine times out of ten, feed the point for a slap shot. It's way too easy to defend. The PP, is nothing but a system. Shoot from the point until your hands bleed regardless if the puck goes wide or gets blocked a hundred times.... I would be very interested to know, how many shots on net the Habs have had on the PP this season.
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