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Post by habsorbed on Jul 24, 2015 23:53:37 GMT -5
Interesting article. I'm no analytics guy and think it's mostly hype. But by almost every measure conducted in the article DD is awful. And Eller looks pretty impressive. I don't recall DD having to wait to play centre. He has been there since day one. Why does Chucky have to wait. He may need to improve. But he's not going to learn or improve playing on the wing. Let the kid play centre. We will not win a cup with DD at centre so lets move on, PLEASE.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 25, 2015 0:33:38 GMT -5
Yeah, the numbers seem overwhelming huh? The only thing I'd caution on is that its Andrew Berkshire writing the article and now taking the data from his new job. I don't doubt he still feels the same way he did when employed by Habs Eye on the Prize, so a Therrien hater and therefore, not a fan of DD because MT favours him so much. It is hard to argue those numbers, though, and my eye test has told me that DD is weak defensively in his own end. He doesn't identify risk situations well so he doesn't position himself properly and then even if he does, he can be overpowered.
What's also interesting is that those numbers aren't all that flattering for Pleks, either. I've complained a few times that Pleks has disappointed me on the defensive side. I got really annoyed late in this season when he didn't identify that Tyler Johnson was winding up in his own end and he could have angled him into the boards at centre, but took so long in seeing the play that Johnson blew by him and Tampa scored late in the game to win. I was chewing nails at that one because it was so obvious, and so simple to derail. The fact those stats are showing what I was seeing makes me think they have some relevance.
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Post by habsorbed on Jul 25, 2015 1:11:44 GMT -5
I'll take the "eye test" over analytics any day. But when both come up with the same conclusion then one has to question MT's judgment and/or coaching ability. I like DD's disposition and respect what he has achieved but we're not winning a cup with him at centre. MT should dump the favouritism and play the players that give us the best opportunity to win. How much longer will MB allow MT to ride on Carey's coattails?
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Post by CentreHice on Jul 25, 2015 5:00:41 GMT -5
How much longer will MB allow MT to ride on Carey's coattails? Could be a while yet. Looking back at Bergevin's post-season PC..... He was challenged with, If such a player (a legit #1 centre) isn't available, then how do you not develop Galchenyuk at centre? His response..... Because we're trying to win hockey games. So far he hasn't shown he can be a top centreman in the league.A brief stint at centre, during which Galchenyuk put up almost a point-per-game, didn't call for a harsh statement like that. No wonder noses are likely out of joint. But, for MT's detractors, there's always hope.... After going to the 2008 Finals vs. Detroit, I doubt Ray Shero was thinking about firing him.
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Post by Lord Bebop on Jul 25, 2015 6:55:27 GMT -5
I'll take the "eye test" over analytics any day. But when both come up with the same conclusion then one has to question MT's judgment and/or coaching ability. I like DD's disposition and respect what he has achieved but we're not winning a cup with him at centre. MT should dump the favouritism and play the players that give us the best opportunity to win. How much longer will MB allow MT to ride on Carey's coattails? Not sure MT had any other options. I don't buy into favouritism holding back anyone. Chucky was a top winger for him.... Playing him center leaves a hole last season... I think we have the depth this season unless all of Kassian, Semin and the rookie squad flop, which is unlikely IMO.....Just speculation on my part, but I think DD's days as the #1 center are over or numbered at best.
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Post by habsorbed on Jul 25, 2015 10:42:56 GMT -5
I'll take the "eye test" over analytics any day. But when both come up with the same conclusion then one has to question MT's judgment and/or coaching ability. I like DD's disposition and respect what he has achieved but we're not winning a cup with him at centre. MT should dump the favouritism and play the players that give us the best opportunity to win. How much longer will MB allow MT to ride on Carey's coattails? Not sure MT had any other options. I don't buy into favouritism holding back anyone. Chucky was a top winger for him.... Playing him center leaves a hole last season... I think we have the depth this season unless all of Kassian, Semin and the rookie squad flop, which is unlikely IMO.....Just speculation on my part, but I think DD's days as the #1 center are over or numbered at best. I sure hope your crystal ball is functioning properly. If so I'll be back asking for your views on the Canadian dollar and oil prices
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Post by franko on Jul 25, 2015 11:21:54 GMT -5
I'll take the "eye test" over analytics any day. But when both come up with the same conclusion then one has to question MT's judgment and/or coaching ability. I like DD's disposition and respect what he has achieved but we're not winning a cup with him at centre. MT should dump the favouritism and play the players that give us the best opportunity to win. How much longer will MB allow MT to ride on Carey's coattails? talking with someone last night who thinks that MT's job is to teach discipline so that the next coach can bring the Habs to the next level and win a cup. and that the discipline phase is almost complete. interesting perspective. how close are we?
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Post by seventeen on Jul 25, 2015 12:01:48 GMT -5
That is an interesting thought, but I doubt Berg would have extended an interim solution another 3 years if that was the case.
More likely, it seemed a good idea at the time. Then Carey took over and MT cashed in big. Shame on Berg in this instance.
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Post by blny on Jul 25, 2015 12:38:37 GMT -5
If the relationship between the two was bad, I doubt Galchenyuk would have made an appearance at the summer camp for kids. He was there this week playing shinny with a bunch of kids. It will get done. Hopefully the move to center comes sooner rather than later as well.
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Post by franko on Jul 27, 2015 22:03:52 GMT -5
looks like Berkshire has his teeth in this and won't let it go regardless
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Post by seventeen on Jul 28, 2015 1:39:54 GMT -5
Yes, you have to look at his stories with a critical eye. He's using stats generated by Chris Boucher, who I thought was always balanced and focused on the Habs. So...there may actually be some meat to Berkshire's approach. I wonder, though, if one chose to find stats that favoured DD, one might be able to do that too. I saw the above a few days ago on Twitter and couldn't figure out how to copy and paste it to HabsRus. Thanks for doing so. It does make one wonder. Eller has the best stats, which you'd predict. But Galchy actually has better numbers than Pleks, which I kinda doubt. Maybe he's using Galchy's winger stats and comparing them to the other guys' centre stats and that's apples and oranges. Even if he's comparing just Galchy's centre stats, that was a small sample, being just 10 games or so. Lies, damned lies and statistics.
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Post by Doc Holliday on Jul 28, 2015 6:35:22 GMT -5
I wonder, though, if one chose to find stats that favoured DD, one might be able to do that too. I can try. Desharnais: 339gp, 64g, 211pts, +37 Eller: 363gp, 60g, 130pts, -20 ...well that wasn't so hard Some more: Galchenyuk - Pleks - Gallagher: -3 Galchenyuk - DD - Gallagher: +3 Pacioretty - Pleks - Gallagher: +5 Pacioretty - DD - Gallagher: +8 Pacioretty - DD - Parenteau: +2 Galchenyuk - DD - Parenteau: +1 Pacioretty - DD - Weise: +8 No matter what line combo DD played on, that line was a + line. Not as sexy a stats as "defensive involvement and success vs team average", whatever that means, but outscoring your opponent when you're on the ice is an interesting way of looking at things too.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 28, 2015 8:09:28 GMT -5
I wonder, though, if one chose to find stats that favoured DD, one might be able to do that too. I can try. Desharnais: 339gp, 64g, 211pts, +37 Eller: 363gp, 60g, 130pts, -20 ...well that wasn't so hard To be fair to Eller, he's pretty much been a 3rd-line guy most of the time in Montreal ... his linemates seemed to change quite a bit ... conversely, Desharnais has bounced between the 1st and 2nd lines for most of his time ... the stats are different between the two, but so are the roles asked of them ... Any chance of you putting up Desharnais' stats when he was moved to wing ... I remember him responding big time to that move ... Cheers.
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Post by Boston_Habs on Jul 28, 2015 9:44:11 GMT -5
No matter what line combo DD played on, that line was a + line. Not as sexy a stats as "defensive involvement and success vs team average", whatever that means, but outscoring your opponent when you're on the ice is an interesting way of looking at things too. It has an intuitive appeal, but I do think it's helpful to adjust for how a player is used. The jury is still out on how advanced stats contribute to how decisions get made, but things like offensive zone starts, line matchups, quality of linemates helps to isolate the contribution of the player vs. the overall circumstances. DD is a savvy offensive player, more savvy than Eller. But he gets the benefit of starting way more of his shifts in the offensive zone than Eller, who took the most defensive zone draws on the team. He also gets the benefit of PP time and being deployed on the top line against weaker opponents (at least at home), compared to Eller who draws the toughest defensive assignments on the team. That said, I still think Eller should be a more productive offensive player than he is. He generally does a great job of gaining the puck in the defensive zone and initiating "controlled zone exits" to use another buzzword, but it rarely ends up in a goal or even a quality scoring chance. He skates well, he handles the puck well in traffic, he's big and strong... it's like he's 75% of what you want him to be except the last part of finishing at the net or making a good decision on shoot/pass to get a high quality chance. His offensive instincts are below average and that's where his problem is, IMO.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 28, 2015 10:14:14 GMT -5
No matter what line combo DD played on, that line was a + line. Not as sexy a stats as "defensive involvement and success vs team average", whatever that means, but outscoring your opponent when you're on the ice is an interesting way of looking at things too. It has an intuitive appeal, but I do think it's helpful to adjust for how a player is used. The jury is still out on how advanced stats contribute to how decisions get made, but things like offensive zone starts, line matchups, quality of linemates helps to isolate the contribution of the player vs. the overall circumstances. DD is a savvy offensive player, more savvy than Eller. But he gets the benefit of starting way more of his shifts in the offensive zone than Eller, who took the most defensive zone draws on the team. He also gets the benefit of PP time and being deployed on the top line against weaker opponents (at least at home), compared to Eller who draws the toughest defensive assignments on the team. That said, I still think Eller should be a more productive offensive player than he is. He generally does a great job of gaining the puck in the defensive zone and initiating "controlled zone exits" to use another buzzword, but it rarely ends up in a goal or even a quality scoring chance. He skates well, he handles the puck well in traffic, he's big and strong... it's like he's 75% of what you want him to be except the last part of finishing at the net or making a good decision on shoot/pass to get a high quality chance. His offensive instincts are below average and that's where his problem is, IMO. BH, I'd be surprised if Eller is still with the team at the end of this season ... his cap hit is $3.5 million but his payouts for his final two season will be $4.25 million and $4.75 million respectively ... I don't have a crystal ball, but I suspect Bergevin might try to avoid paying that out if he can swing it ... also, moving Eller would create that opening at centre where Galchenyuk be able to slide into ... now, I don't know if they'll wait that long to move Chucky, but there are two other centres who have an attractive cap hit Bergevin probably wouldn't mind moving; Plekanec and Desharnais, but without landing a top centre he loses what expertise these two bring to the table ... I think Eller would probably be the more logical move financially speaking, anyway ... then Therrien will have to figure out who plays 3rd-line pivot ... that's just me, though ... Cheers.
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Post by blny on Jul 29, 2015 7:13:56 GMT -5
Sean Couturier just signed a 6 year extension with the Flyers. Cap hit is $4.33 million. Similar age. Couturier has been playing center since his arrival in Philly. He's considered more of a two-way player, but hasn't really been given the chance to demonstrate offensive ability. He's an excellent penalty killer.
It will be interesting to see if this deal has an impact on the Galchenyuk contract.
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Post by habsorbed on Jul 29, 2015 12:55:34 GMT -5
Sean Couturier just signed a 6 year extension with the Flyers. Cap hit is $4.33 million. Similar age. Couturier has been playing center since his arrival in Philly. He's considered more of a two-way player, but hasn't really been given the chance to demonstrate offensive ability. He's an excellent penalty killer. It will be interesting to see if this deal has an impact on the Galchenyuk contract. I too was thinking of Chuck when I saw this signing. Mixed feelings: Chucky hasn't proved to be worth $4.3 yet (nor has Couturier), but if he takes the next step(s) this year and or next then $4.3 would be a steal. Bridge now and pay big later (see PK) or lock down for 6 years now based on reliable forecasting?
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Post by habsorbed on Jul 29, 2015 13:00:26 GMT -5
Sean Couturier just signed a 6 year extension with the Flyers. Cap hit is $4.33 million. Similar age. Couturier has been playing center since his arrival in Philly. He's considered more of a two-way player, but hasn't really been given the chance to demonstrate offensive ability. He's an excellent penalty killer. It will be interesting to see if this deal has an impact on the Galchenyuk contract. I too was thinking of Chuck when I saw this signing. Mixed feelings: Chucky hasn't proved to be worth $4.3 yet (nor has Couturier), but if he takes the next step(s) this year and or next then $4.3 would be a steal. Bridge now and pay big later (see PK) or lock down for 6 years now based on reliable forecasting? I guess we should thank MT for retarding Chucky's development or we would be paying big money now
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Post by blny on Jul 29, 2015 13:16:10 GMT -5
Couturier has had a couple of 30 plus point seasons. His best is 39 points. 15 goals is his high. Neither are far removed from Galchenyuk. His camp will certainly be looking at that as the bar. The only argument the Habs have is that Couturier is a year older, and did have a bridge deal for 2 years. They could either argue for the bridge deal, or give him the years but at slightly less - like Gallagher.
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Post by CentreHice on Jul 29, 2015 18:24:58 GMT -5
I guess we should thank MT for retarding Chucky's development or we would be paying big money now Wouldn't surprise me in the least if that's what Galchenyuk's camp is thinking. Taking him away from centre when he was putting up points and the team was winning would be an arrow in that direction. I'm not asserting that's what definitely happened...just that it's a possibility. And I doubt it would be the first time something like that occurred on an NHL team.
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Post by folatre on Jul 29, 2015 19:49:44 GMT -5
It could be doubts on both sides about the short term long term alternatives. Maybe Bergevin is trying to deal someone to make space for concrete long term offer.
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Post by Tankdriver on Sept 3, 2015 17:45:26 GMT -5
Just read a Sportsnet article on Hartley. I believe he was a candidate to be our head coach at the same time as Michel. I ready loved this part of it: “You know, I’m saying he’s a pain — he’s not a pain. He just wants to play,” said Hartley. “He’s one of those thoroughbreds that wants to run and run and run — and gosh, I’m not going to stop him.” Bennett played all 11 of the Flames’ playoff games, registering three goals and one assist. The natural centre carved out a temporary spot for himself along the wing — but that won’t be the case this year, as Hartley is determined to make him into the NHL centre they drafted him to be. “We drafted him as a centre, and at camp we’re going to work unbelievably hard with Sammy, we’re going to see him in many games so that we can really test him, we can really teach him,” said Hartley. “I have lots of trust, I have lots of high hopes on Sam Bennett, and I want him at centre. “I’m going to push him, I’m going to support him,” Hartley added. “We love Sammy — he’s going to do great with us.” Wish our coach wanted our stud to play centre, since you know we kinda drafted him to be one..........
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Post by frozone on Sept 3, 2015 20:49:23 GMT -5
Really makes me wonder why he was out of work for so long in the NHL. Seems like suddenly no one wanted anything to do with him after he was last fired. But whatever his faults are, they're certainly not obvious to me. He's had success at pretty much every level worth caring about. So what gives? Had he been unfairly ostracized? (Geez, I might as well have been talking about Guy Boucher...)
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Post by seventeen on Sept 4, 2015 12:15:03 GMT -5
Strangely similar, huh? I like both of them. Hartley may rub some people the wrong way but he's a winner.
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Post by Doc Holliday on Sept 5, 2015 11:56:49 GMT -5
Hartley had a difficult relation with Don Waddell and that made him persona non grata in the League for a while. He also has an offensive run and gun philosophy that isn’t necessarily “en vogue” in nowadays hyper structured defensive system.
That said Hartley won it all at every level, junior, AHL, NHL and in Europe. He’s really good with young players most certainly because his offense minded mentality behind the bench is a pleasant brand of hockey for players and easier to adapt to for young talents than having to deconstruct their game, to learn to play defense and without the puck…
He really wanted to be the HABS new head coach but when he saw that management was pussy-footing around him (Dudley being no stranger to that IMO), he went to Calgary where the organization was much clearer in their desire to have him aboard. IMO they are doing things right in Calgary, moving old players and re-centering the team early on youth and Bob is the right men for the job.
If I was a gambling man, I'd place my bet on Calgary being the next Canadian destination for the Cup in a not so distant future.
Definitely our loss. But at the same I don't think the fans in Montreal would have accepted a slow 3 years climb around young players making mistakes.
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Post by jkr on Sept 5, 2015 12:13:15 GMT -5
Hartley had a difficult relation with Don Waddell and that made him persona non grata in the League for a while. He also has an offensive run and gun philosophy that isn’t necessarily “en vogue” in nowadays hyper structured defensive system. That said Hartley won it all at every level, junior, AHL, NHL and in Europe. He’s really good with young players most certainly because his offense minded mentality behind the bench is a pleasant brand of hockey for players and easier to adapt to for young talents than having to deconstruct their game, to learn to play defense and without the puck… He really wanted to be the HABS new head coach but when he saw that management was pussy-footing around him (Dudley being no stranger to that IMO), he went to Calgary where the organization was much clearer in their desire to have him aboard. IMO they are doing things right in Calgary, moving old players and re-centering the team early on youth and Bob is the right men for the job. If I was a gambling man, I'd place my bet on Calgary being the next Canadian destination for the Cup in a not so distant future. Definitely our loss. But at the same I don't think the fans in Montreal would have accepted a slow 3 years climb around young players making mistakes. Thanks for that info Doc. I wanted Hartley too & was left wondering why it didn't happen.
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Post by CentreHice on Sept 5, 2015 12:59:55 GMT -5
When it comes to younger players, it sounds as if he's a good psychologist…a la his TV namesake.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Sept 8, 2015 7:06:41 GMT -5
If I was a gambling man, I'd place my bet on Calgary being the next Canadian destination for the Cup in a not so distant future. I'd be lying if I said I hadn't thought of this before ... Calgary did what they did last year without Mark Giordano or Dougie Hamilton ... they have a great core of veterans and young players ... Sean Monahan and Sam Bennett will solidify their centre positions for years ... if there's one position that's iffy it might be their goaltending ... Jonas Hiller and Kari Ramo aren't elite goaltenders, and it will be interesting to see if they steal a few games when need be ... even given that, though, I think the Flames are going to be contenders this year ... wouldn't mind seeing a Flames/Habs final, but that's easier said than done ... Cheers.
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Post by Polarice on Sept 8, 2015 8:52:38 GMT -5
I'm not sold on Calgary yet, I think they over achieved last year and caught a lot of teams off guard. They will have to get off to a good start before I consider them contenders.
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Post by BadCompany on Sept 8, 2015 9:11:54 GMT -5
I don't think Montreal was ever really Hartley's first choice. Let's not forget that he has had a long professional and personal relationship with Calgary's GM, Jay Feaster, which surely played a major factor in his decision. Not only did Hartley and Feaster work many years together in the past (in the AHL), but Hartley is actually the godfather to one of Feaster's kids. So obviously they are pretty tight.
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