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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jul 10, 2015 15:16:02 GMT -5
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Post by Polarice on Jul 10, 2015 15:51:43 GMT -5
Hope its nothing serious that will act up all year.
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Post by CentreHice on Jul 10, 2015 15:57:04 GMT -5
Silver lining?
Depending upon the injury, it may force MB to bolster the scoring this summer. Max represents the majority of eggs from the few baskets we currently possess. You usually can't afford a staggering start to the year.
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Post by HFTO on Jul 10, 2015 16:16:24 GMT -5
oh boy....other factor is. How explosive will he be once he hits the ice?... And will it take even more time?
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 10, 2015 17:02:25 GMT -5
Heard that while driving into Midland ... note to Bergevin, don't make any trades out of panic...
Cheers.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 10, 2015 17:20:10 GMT -5
This is what I think (being the satanic [no Miroslav jokes please] minded person that I am). Last year, we were extremely lucky with our injury situation. No key players were hurt for significant periods of time. I think the pendulum is swinging and this year is going to be the reverse. If Max is indeed hurt, then, that's the start.
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Post by blny on Jul 10, 2015 18:16:32 GMT -5
Three months tells me it's likely a sprain. Florida tells me it was beach training - running, drills, in sand.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 10, 2015 18:47:01 GMT -5
Three months tells me it's likely a sprain. Florida tells me it was beach training - running, drills, in sand. See? Who gets hurt in sand? Kids play in it, adults frolic in it (East of Eden), and eventually we make concrete out of it, but while it's sand, no one gets hurt by it. Oh, you might have to wash it out of your eyes now and then, but a knee injury? The hockey gods have hit us with their injury dart. Get ready for 600 man games lost to injury, and to key players too. Captain Optimistic
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Post by Skilly on Jul 10, 2015 18:54:36 GMT -5
Matt Pfiffer , get working on the new numbers ... This team, without Pacioretty for any prolonged stretch, is going to be ugly. They could find out pretty early that they'll have lots of time to play on beaches and plan which players will improve the third line.
Hopefully the October timetable is a good one. This does highlight how fragile the forward group is, ..., but it will also soon show how much faith the team will have in Sherbak, Eller, Galchenyuk, etc
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Post by seventeen on Jul 10, 2015 19:49:10 GMT -5
There is indeed a silver lining to facing a lot of injuries, Skilly. And that is that Therrien will have no choice but to play kids, which should expedite their development or display the warts. Either way we find out this year if they can play, rather than it taking 3 years.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 10, 2015 20:24:53 GMT -5
He's had some horrific injuries over the years, but he's always proven resilient ... I like what Skilly and 17 were talking about in that it would an excellent time to inject a deserving prospect into the lineup ... Bergevin may/may not have some irons in the fire, but unless he has something done already, I'd be leery of making a big trade at this time ... with his top scorer going down, he's not in a position of strength any longer ... Cheers.
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Post by habsorbed on Jul 11, 2015 0:54:50 GMT -5
There is indeed a silver lining to facing a lot of injuries, Skilly. And that is that Therrien will have no choice but to play kids, which should expedite their development or display the warts. Either way we find out this year if they can play, rather than it taking 3 years. Definitely may be a blessing: 1) play some kids; 2) force MB to get another stop scorer; and/or 3) show how fragile this team is and how pathetic MT is. But no question that given our shortage of goals with the current roster, no Max at the outset of the season or Max trying to regain his game could cost us as many as 15 goals which will have significant ramifications.
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Post by jkr on Jul 11, 2015 7:45:41 GMT -5
Sure it may force Bergevin to look for another scorer but now the whole league knows he badly needs somebody. It's going to be harder to find & the price will be higher. 3 months brings him to the beginning of the season which means he will probably miss games. As Skilly says, it's going to be ugly. Now we know why Phil Kessel does FA during the summer. He doesn't want to hurt himself running on the beach.
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Post by Doc Holliday on Jul 11, 2015 8:52:56 GMT -5
It's bad news. Players who miss camp due to injury are often out of synch all season long. Pacioretty does have the tendency to recuperate fast but the team has a mediocre offense WITH Pacioretty running full steam, now imagine if he has an off year...
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Post by Skilly on Jul 11, 2015 10:01:14 GMT -5
Sure it may force Bergevin to look for another scorer but now the whole league knows he badly needs somebody. It's going to be harder to find & the price will be higher. 3 months brings him to the beginning of the season which means he will probably miss games. As Skilly says, it's going to be ugly. Now we know why Phil Kessel does FA during the summer. He doesn't want to hurt himself running on the beach. LOL ... I originally thought FA was "free agency" ... But now I got you ... Sweet FA . LOL
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jul 11, 2015 10:48:06 GMT -5
The five kids (plus Holloway) are now fighting for two spots if no further moves are made. The second spot will eventually disappear, but it is a free audition for the team and a prospect. I am okay with this. Will the Berg and MT be?
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Post by Willie Dog on Jul 11, 2015 11:54:20 GMT -5
The five kids (plus Holloway) are now fighting for two spots if no further moves are made. The second spot will eventually disappear, but it is a free audition for the team and a prospect. I am okay with this. Will the Berg and MT be? I'm sure MT will want the most defensively responsible prospects which means we will average 0.5 goals a game.
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Post by jkr on Jul 11, 2015 16:21:51 GMT -5
Sure it may force Bergevin to look for another scorer but now the whole league knows he badly needs somebody. It's going to be harder to find & the price will be higher. 3 months brings him to the beginning of the season which means he will probably miss games. As Skilly says, it's going to be ugly. Now we know why Phil Kessel does FA during the summer. He doesn't want to hurt himself running on the beach. LOL ... I originally thought FA was "free agency" ... But now I got you ... Sweet FA . LOL It's a family rated board after all.
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Post by stoat on Jul 11, 2015 17:51:12 GMT -5
There is indeed a silver lining to facing a lot of injuries, Skilly. And that is that Therrien will have no choice but to play kids, which should expedite their development or display the warts. Either way we find out this year if they can play, rather than it taking 3 years. I DON'T SEE BEING FORCED TO PLAY KIDS INSTEAD OF THE TEAM'S BEST MARKSMAN AS A SILVER LINING. YES, SOMEONE MAY UNEXPECTEDLY SHINE, BUT WE'RE MORE LIKELY TO DISCOVER THAT THE "KIDS" AREN'T READY. 'RE
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Post by seventeen on Jul 11, 2015 19:42:32 GMT -5
But if one or two of them are, and then Max comes back...the silver lining becomes gold. Who said alchemy was dead?
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Post by Willie Dog on Jul 12, 2015 17:34:15 GMT -5
There is indeed a silver lining to facing a lot of injuries, Skilly. And that is that Therrien will have no choice but to play kids, which should expedite their development or display the warts. Either way we find out this year if they can play, rather than it taking 3 years. I DON'T SEE BEING FORCED TO PLAY KIDS INSTEAD OF THE TEAM'S BEST MARKSMAN AS A SILVER LINING. YES, SOMEONE MAY UNEXPECTEDLY SHINE, BUT WE'RE MORE LIKELY TO DISCOVER THAT THE "KIDS" AREN'T READY. 'RE Or the kids aren't being used properly.
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Post by BadCompany on Jul 13, 2015 7:42:24 GMT -5
Better now than in February.
I think we’ll be fine. Max has come back from worse.
I also think our offense is starting to get a bad reputation, if that’s even possible. No, I’m not saying we have a good offense. I’m just saying that with each passing day it’s reputation gets worse and worse, to the point of hyperbole. I know we do not have a good offense, I know that our power-play was bad, I know that we scored the fewest goals of any playoff team, and I know this is clearly an area for improvement. But it wasn’t quite as epically bad as it’s sometimes being made out to be. You’d think we had the worst power-play in the history of the game, and we won every game 1-0 in shootouts.
It’s a stats league now, right? So let’s consider:
* Goals For: 217, 20th in the league. Three behind Pittsburgh, four behind Chicago
* 5 on 5: 19th, tied with Pittsburgh
* Short-handed: 11th
* Power-play (overall): 23rd. Ahead of Minnesota, and Anaheim, tied with the Rangers
* Power-play (home): 6th.
* Power-play (away): 28th, with only 13 goals. Still ahead of Minnesota though.
The key, to me, appears to be the road power play. I don’t know why that is, but if they get that fixed, just the power-play on the road, and everything else looks so much better. Let’s go to Alternate Universe and pretend that the Habs scored five more goals on their road power-play. One extra power-play goal every eight road games. Add those five goals and suddenly:
* The power-play jumps from 23rd to 17th.
* Road power-play jumps from 28th to a tie for 23rd, with Anaheim.
* Total goals for moves goes from 20th to 17th, ahead of Pittsburgh and LA, and one behind the Stanley Cup champion Blackhawks.
One extra power-play goal, every eight road games. That's the difference.
Bergevin has added goals up and down the lineup. Kassian over Prust, Petry over Weaver/Gonchar/Allen, Mitchell over Malhotra, even Flynn over Bournival/Bourque/Bowman/Tangradi. Our biggest loss offensively is P.A Parenteau and his eight goals.
We’re not going to have a great offense, I don’t think anybody expects that, but I also don’t think it’s as bad as it’s being made out to be. A better road power-play, and maybe some slight improvement five one five (and the additions of Petry and Mitchell should help that), and we're a "much" better offensive team.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 13, 2015 13:54:06 GMT -5
I'm not maniacally depressed about our offense, but I'm not so sure the improvements you've mentioned above will be enough. One extra power play goal every 8 road games amounts to 5 goals. At the right time, in the right circumstances, those goals could matter greatly, or they might be our 2nd goal in a 5-2 loss. I think we're going to need more, because I really don't think Carey can duplicate last year. Let's assume he plays as he did in the playoffs, at a respectable .920 save percentage. Assuming the same number of shots, that means Carey allows 156 goals instead of 130. Twenty six goals that have to be made up, in order to approximately get the same number of points. Let's not even start the discussion of what could happen if Carey got hurt. Petry's addition might help us with our zone clearance and cut down the number of shots against, which would improve on that potential 26 goal difference.
I agree with you in the respect that offensive improvement is going to have to come by committee. I can see Galchenyuk possibly scoring more. I can see Bournival scoring more. I can see one or two of the kids contributing more than expected (Hudon is a sneaky smart player, McCarron has the size and strength and Scherbak the size and skill). Whenever I think of our young guys, I keep coming back to the fact that they're not likely to get the opportunity to help out. Therrien is fixated on defense, so if you're young and defensively well above average (DeLaRose), you'll play. If you're not (Andrighetto, Thomas and a whole line of guys), you won't. Hudon is a local boy so he'll probably get more of an opportunity than most, so he's my rookie hope. But he's small and not especially fast, but he's smart and he's pretty good defensively.
Anyway, offensive improvement seems to be more of a hope than a plan, but there are some kids who may fulfill that hope, so I'm keeping my fingers crossed. I think offense, all other things being equal, is based largely on a state of mind. The better scoring a team is, the easier it is for them to score. It sounds like a chicken and egg matter, but somewhere, there's a tipping point where a team can go from struggling to score, to it being a habit to score. It needs the right push to get to that tipping point and I don't think we have it yet.
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Post by Boston_Habs on Jul 14, 2015 8:04:55 GMT -5
Offensive improvement seems to be more of a hope than a plan, but there are some kids who may fulfill that hope, so I'm keeping my fingers crossed. Great post, 17. In part through his own success, Berg has backed himself into a corner where it's unacceptable to go backwards but getting over that hump is really hard. We've discussed how this group has more or less maxed out in terms of ability (with the notable exception of Galchenyuk) and it's been good enough for a 110 point season, 3 playoff wins, and a couple of 1st place finishes. But we all see where the weakness is and Berg seems to just be be hoping it gets better next season. That's why I think Therrien needs to be on a very short leash next year. If Berg can't bring in more talent and Therrien can't find a way to get more out of this group then where are we? Woody Allen famously said that a relationship is like a shark; it has to keep moving or it dies. A middling offense and heavy reliance on Carey Price is not a sustainable path to success. So whether it's the power play, or getting Galchenyuk to the next level, or giving Lars Eller a role he can thrive consistently, Therrien has to move this team forward or Berg has to decide if he's really the guy who can take us to a Cup.
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Post by franko on Jul 14, 2015 8:17:45 GMT -5
Offensive improvement seems to be more of a hope than a plan, but there are some kids who may fulfill that hope, so I'm keeping my fingers crossed. Great post, 17. In part through his own success, Berg has backed himself into a corner where it's unacceptable to go backwards but getting over that hump is really hard. We've discussed how this group has more or less maxed out in terms of ability (with the notable exception of Galchenyuk) and it's been good enough for a 110 point season, 3 playoff wins, and a couple of 1st place finishes. But we all see where the weakness is and Berg seems to just be be hoping it gets better next season. That's why I think Therrien needs to be on a very short leash next year. If Berg can't bring in more talent and Therrien can't find a way to get more out of this group then where are we? Woody Allen famously said that a relationship is like a shark; it has to keep moving or it dies. A middling offense and heavy reliance on Carey Price is not a sustainable path to success. So whether it's the power play, or getting Galchenyuk to the next level, or giving Lars Eller a role he can thrive consistently, Therrien has to move this team forward or Berg has to decide if he's really the guy who can take us to a Cup. agree, BH, but I just don't think that MT can do it. nothing against him . . . it's against his coaching philosophy . . . I don't think it's in him to change. I'd love for him to prove me wrong . . . but if he can't/doesn't, at least he ha a few years with a guaranteed pay cheque where he can go back on tv and slag PK and the gang.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jul 14, 2015 9:53:21 GMT -5
I know we talked about this briefly in the Berg - Summer thread, but the Berg did go out and hire a 21 year old Pfiffer to be an advanced stats consultant for the team. Yup, 21 years old. I can hardly wait to see how stubborn old MT reacts when a 21 year old UofO student provides analysis that he is using DD, Galchenyuk, Eller and others wrong. This could be very interesting to see if he does change things up to get more out of essentially a very similar lineup.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 14, 2015 12:36:13 GMT -5
I know we talked about this briefly in the Berg - Summer thread, but the Berg did go out and hire a 21 year old Pfiffer to be an advanced stats consultant for the team. Yup, 21 years old. I can hardly wait to see how stubborn old MT reacts when a 21 year old UofO student provides analysis that he is using DD, Galchenyuk, Eller and others wrong. This could be very interesting to see if he does change things up to get more out of essentially a very similar lineup. That's a key point, NWT. It should tell us if MT really is willing to adapt. Will he see this 21 year old as a threat or as a useful tool? In the past, Therrien's give short shrift to advanced stats and while they're not the proverbial be all and end all, they can help a coach adjust his lines and pairings.
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Post by Boston_Habs on Jul 14, 2015 13:31:10 GMT -5
That should really be Bergevin's responsibility. This kid works for Berg, and it's Berg's job to make sure intelligence and insight at the management level are being passed down to the coaching staff.... and incorporated on the ice!
Moneyball and advanced stats have shown how pro sports are evolving. Not that they are the be all and end all, but well-managed organizations have a positive feedback loop between management and coaches where information is analyzed, shared, and used in the best way.
If MT just brushes the kid off or worse, brushes Bergevin off, then that's it. Therrien is old school and would prefer to be left alone to coach his team, but that's not the world we live in anymore. And it's not like he's Scotty Bowman either. He gets with the program or he's out. I'm afraid, however, that Bergevin is a bit too hands off with Therrien, gets the players and let's Therrien figure out the rest. He needs to be more involved than that.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 14, 2015 15:11:42 GMT -5
If MT just brushes the kid off or worse, brushes Bergevin off, then that's it. Therrien is old school and would prefer to be left alone to coach his team, but that's not the world we live in anymore. And it's not like he's Scotty Bowman either. He gets with the program or he's out. I'm afraid, however, that Bergevin is a bit too hands off with Therrien, gets the players and let's Therrien figure out the rest. He needs to be more involved than that. I don't know, BH ... if the GM hires a coach to do a job and then gives him advise on how to do his job, then there's probably something wrong ... I'm not saying they don't talk to each other; Bob Gainey went out and got Scott Gomez because Jacques Martin had a say in the type of players he wanted for his system ... just the same, I could see Marc Bergevin consulting Michel Therrien on bringing in Devante Smith-Pelley ... but as far as assisting the coach goes, that's what I thought the assistant coaches were employed for ... that's just me, though ... Cheers.
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Post by Skilly on Jul 14, 2015 17:11:05 GMT -5
You can't argue that on paper Bergevin is adding players that can have more of an impact than the ones they replaced. But, unfortunately, you don't play the games on paper, and the guys Bergevin has added have ZERO impact on the overall team offence and team defense. This is because while Petry has more offensive potential than Weaver, and Flynn has more potential than Bourque, and Mitchell has more potential than Malholtra ... These guys are not in positions to make meaningful impacts.
We have evidence of this already. We played the first 62 games of the season without Petry, Mitchell, Flynn. We scored 171 goals in those 62 games, good for 2.76 goals a game. We "improved" the team by adding them for the last 20 games and we scored 50 goals in those last 20 games. Good for 2.5 goals a game. Now if you add in the playoffs, we had these guys for 32 games and scored 75 goals, which is 2.34 goals a game. The longer we had them the worse the offence got!
To make matters worse, the defense got worse. In the first 62 games, we surrendered 138 goals. That's 2.23 goals a game. In the 20 regular season games with the new additions, we gave up 51 goals. That's 2.55 per game. Add in the playoffs, in the 32 games with the new team we gave up 80 goals, 2.5 per game.
In summary, 32 games with Petry, Mitchell .... 75 goals for, 80 goals against. Prior to acquiring these guys we were miles ahead for the Jennings, and ended the season tying with Chicago because our goals against increased from 2.23 to 2.55.
The only addition we can really say in an attempt at improvement is Kassian. But while his pro-rated 20 goals is good, they have to replace PAP, Weise, Prust and Sekac who scored about 15 goals together while on the top 6. So we are looking at an increase of 5 goals. But if you then account for loss of production from Pacioretty if he misses games, or training camp, and the fact that you can not count on 26 goals from Plekanec again (he averages just over 20 in his career) you quickly see that our goal output is more along the lines of status quo then increasing at all.
Then there is the obvious. How many goals do we need to account for Price have a top 5 season, instead of being tops in every category. Conservative estimates show that to be 20+ goals.
I went player by player through the lineup and I don't get much more than the 221 goals we got last year.
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