|
|
Post by NWTHabsFan on Jun 1, 2004 22:59:22 GMT -5
Well, we drafted Theo 10 years after drafting Roy, so going for a goalie now isn't all that crazy, given that we got Theo 10 years ago. The last time we drafted a goalie in the first round was way back in 1972, when they picked Bunny Larocque. Interestingly, both Theo and Garon were scooped with the 44th pick, in the second round. The Habs draft goalies a fair bit, with two young European goalies picked in later rounds last year (Halak and Heino-Lindberg). I just don't see them picking a goalie in the first round this year; however, if management thinks that a goalie is clearly the BPA at the #18 spot, they very well might stockpile a good young goalie who could always be used as trade bait down the road, or who could evolve into that future goalie once our current crop all move on. |
|
|
|
Post by seventeen on Jun 2, 2004 0:50:13 GMT -5
Antropov is freakishly strong. Sure, he doesn't always show up, but it has taken him some time to grow into his body. I think when he was drafted he was something like 6'6, but only 200lbs. He's up to about 220 now, and just filling in. I saw him toss Sheldon Souray away once, like he was a rag doll. He has a lot more natural skill than Ponikorovsky, who while also being very big, doesn't, in my opinion, have the top end potential that Antropov does. I think Poni has hit his max, more or less, while Antropov is just beginning his upswing. I think Antropov will be like Freddie Modin in a couple of years, once he puts it all together. Will you quit stealing my ideas?! Actually I never postulated it openly, but I have thought about it, truly...why would I lie? Cackle. This year's first is reasonable. I doubt Fergie Jr will go for it, though, so your fantasy is aptly named. I agree about Antropov's strength. He reminds me a great deal of John LecLair before the trade. John was injured a lot in college, and it took him a while to get his bearings in the NHL, but he showed that same water buffalo strength that Antropov shows. If Antropov is healthy, he's easily worth a first rounder. But since he's one of the few youngish players the Leafs have, he won't be going anywhere. (Unless of course, we amplify the grumblings that are already in place in Leafland about Nik and make him out to be nothing but a big cross-dresser who likes baking and the opera. Then...Don Cherry alone will drive him outta town). |
|
|
|
Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Jun 2, 2004 6:26:32 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Jun 2, 2004 7:41:39 GMT -5
31 point giant vs 65 point rag doll. Refreshing? Am I missing something? Perhaps these stats from the past season will clarify the issue  : Regular seasonAntropov: 13-18-31, +7, 40.8% on faceoffs Ribeiro: 20-45-65, +15, 44.8% on faceoffs PlayoffsAntropov: 13 games, 0-2-2, +1, 38.4% on faceoffs Ribeiro: 11 games, 2-1-3, 0, 47.4% on faceoffs Both players are 24 years old. |
|
|
|
Post by HabbaDasher on Jun 2, 2004 8:33:47 GMT -5
Habba, I agree and apparently so do TT and AS from all the current writeups. That being said, there are likely a handful of players that are all pretty darn close to the same "value" as a BPA when we get our first pick at spot #18. That may give management a bit of a luxury of picking the BPA that also addresses a need. I saw one recent mock draft that has us picking a goalie at spot #18 because they thought that player was the BPA. I am not sure the Habs would pick a goalie with our #1 pick given our goalie depth and the fact that our next pick is not until the 3rd round. Could we see them stray from the pure BPA route this draft? I don't have the answers, just like speculating!! If we take a goalie at #18, so be it. Nothing wrong with another good puck stopper in the organization. In a few years, assuming young Danis is for real and #18 develops as expected, BG would have the the option of moving Theo or Garon to fill a more pressing need. |
|
|
|
Post by blaise on Jun 2, 2004 9:08:45 GMT -5
If we take a goalie at #18, so be it. Nothing wrong with another good puck stopper in the organization. In a few years, assuming young Danis is for real and #18 develops as expected, BG would have the the option of moving Theo or Garon to fill a more pressing need. The situation you describe has a probability of <1% but I have to agree with you that at some point Gainey would unload one or more goaltenders to fill a more pressing need. It would be highly illogical for the Habs to hold on to four capable goaltenders at the same time. If this hypothetical #18 were to become golden in three or four years while Danis proceeds to live up to his billing, by then not only Théodore but also Garon would be gone. After all, Garon would be less cost effective after a couple of raises than he is now. By the way, didn't you say the same thing about Fleury on another forum last year? ;D |
|
|
|
Post by HabbaDasher on Jun 2, 2004 9:53:27 GMT -5
The situation you describe has a probability of <1% By the way, didn't you say the same thing about Fleury on another forum last year? ;D Why that unlikely? No good goalies available in the first round? It's entirely possible I said the same about Fleury, yes.  What I don't understand is the logic of those who say "we're deep in goal, so we shouldn't draft a goalie". Nonsense. Having too many good goalies is not exactly a BAD problem. Anyway, some would argue Theodore is overrated. Some would argue Garon has yet to prove himself. And Danis at this point is unrealized potential (fingers crossed). If the BPA at #18 is a goalie, grab him. |
|
|
|
Post by blaise on Jun 2, 2004 10:04:24 GMT -5
Having too many good goalies is not exactly a BAD problem. Having too few hardnosed forwards who can score or too few defensemen who can control forwards in the paint is a serious problem that must be addressed in the very near future. |
|
|
|
Post by HabbaDasher on Jun 2, 2004 12:12:38 GMT -5
Having too few hardnosed forwards who can score or too few defensemen who can control forwards in the paint is a serious problem that must be addressed in the very near future. So we should draft a Terry Ryan or Brent Bilodeau over a José Theodore or Mathieu Garon? |
|
|
|
Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Jun 2, 2004 12:57:55 GMT -5
Perhaps these stats from the past season will clarify the issue : Regular seasonAntropov: 13-18-31, +7, 40.8% on faceoffs Ribeiro: 20-45-65, +15, 44.8% on faceoffs PlayoffsAntropov: 13 games, 0-2-2, +1, 38.4% on faceoffs Ribeiro: 11 games, 2-1-3, 0, 47.4% on faceoffs Both players are 24 years old. Absolutely right Mr. Bozo. So right it bears repeating! +15 on a 7th place team vs. +7 on the Laffs. That's even strength for fair comparison purposes. Ribeiro is too slow and too small. Somebody forgot to tell Mike that, or maybe they did tell him and he disagrees! Way to go Mike, you're our leading scorer at 24! |
|
|
|
Post by rhabdo on Jun 2, 2004 15:39:46 GMT -5
M. Beaux-Eaux's statistics are accurate as usual but somewhat misleading as usual because they are selective and do not take extenuating circumstances into account, such as the injuries that plagued Antropov but not Ribeiro. Ribeiro also enjoyed opportunities that Antropov was denied because he played behind Sundin and Nieuwendyk. However, that was only part of the story.
Ribeiro scored 20 goals to Antropov's 13 but they came in 81 games and in 1,383 minutes vs. 62 games and 948 minutes (1 goal every 69 minutes to 1 every 73 minutes, fairly close). The big difference was in assists. However, Ribeiro played on the 1st or 2nd line and the 1st PP unit all season, Antropov seldom if ever did. Their respective minutes and averages on the PP were 290 and 3.58 vs. 103 and 1.66.
Not exactly a slam dunk.
P.S. Mr Beaux-Eaux should return to the Balej thread, where it was pointed out that Perezhogin's AHL playoff stats were at least as good as Balej's when extrapolated from 4+ games to 16 games.
|
|
|
|
Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Jun 2, 2004 18:56:35 GMT -5
M. Beaux-Eaux's statistics are accurate as usual but somewhat misleading as usual because they are selective and do not take extenuating circumstances into account, such as the injuries that plagued Antropov but not Ribeiro. Statistics are what they are when the context for comparison is the same. One of the major knocks against Antropov is his susceptibility to serious injuries. I don't begrudge the "frail" Ribeiro for having missed one game - when he was benched. To the contrary, Antropov played most of his games on a line with Nieuwendyk. And was taken to task by Leaf fans for dragging the line down. Looks like Antropov better find a way to convince his coach to give him more prime playing time. Check out the "Leafs Nation" link at the beginning of this page. Leaf fans are generally not high on Antropov, considering him to be a 3rd or 4th line player, a poor skater, prone to both injury and stupid penalties. And soft. Antropov dribbles while Ribeiro passes (him). |
|
|
|
Post by Skilly on Jun 2, 2004 18:58:57 GMT -5
Antropov is still very, very young though. He's actually only 1 month older than Michael Ryder, our "rookie" of the year. Antropov is freakishly strong. Sure, he doesn't always show up, but it has taken him some time to grow into his body. I think when he was drafted he was something like 6'6, but only 200lbs. He's up to about 220 now, and just filling in. I saw him toss Sheldon Souray away once, like he was a rag doll. He has a lot more natural skill than Ponikorovsky, who while also being very big, doesn't, in my opinion, have the top end potential that Antropov does. I think Poni has hit his max, more or less, while Antropov is just beginning his upswing. I think Antropov will be like Freddie Modin in a couple of years, once he puts it all together. Idle speculation of course, it will never happen... Well Ponikarovsky is not exactly an old man either. In fact, he is 9 days younger than Michael Ryder. Antropov (primarily a center, although he has played LW) while strong and big (6'6, 220) likes to stay in the slot and be the trigger man. Poni (6'4, 220) can play right wing, (he did it down here for years on a line with Josh Holden. Poni is a guy who is willing to muck it up, Antropov is not. Poni likes to go to the net and Antropov does not. Besides that how does Antropov fit in with Montreal. They do not need a trigger man on either of the top two lines (Kovalev/zednik, and Ryder), but what we need is a big right winger who will park his rear in front of the net. Poni would be the guy for me if he is available. |
|
|
|
Post by Skilly on Jun 2, 2004 19:02:50 GMT -5
Statistics are what they are when the context for comparison is the same. To the contrary, Antropov played most of his games on a line with Nieuwendyk. And was taken to task by Leaf fans for dragging the line down. I agree with you. But Antropov was the third liner on Toronto on a line with Nieuwendyk and Ponikarovsky. And if you listen to Don Cherry he never missed a shift during a game even when he stunk ..... his shifts just weren't as long as Ribs'. |
|
|
|
Post by BadCompany on Jun 2, 2004 20:49:08 GMT -5
Check out the "Leafs Nation" link at the beginning of this page. Leaf fans are generally not high on Antropov, considering him to be a 3rd or 4th line player, a poor skater, prone to both injury and stupid penalties. And soft. Hey! If the Leafs want him gone, then it must be a great pickup! Its almost a badge of honor to be detested by Leaf fans... Some other notable, "trade him, he'll never be anything!" players from the Center of the Universe: Steve Sullivan: 73 points Freddie Modin: 29 goals Jason Smith: Oiler team captain, rock solid defenseman Alyn McCauley: Selke candidate for best defensive forward Mike Johnson: 63 points 2 years ago (only played 11 games last year because of an injury) Mathieu Schneider: #1 defenseman in LA, had 46 points for Detroit last year Danny Markov: top 4 defenseman on the Philadelphia Flyers Kenny Jonsson: top 4 defenseman on the Islanders Larry Murphy: won 2 Stanley Cups after being booed out of Toronto Kirk Muller: made it to the Stanley Cup finals as a member of the "grumpy old men" line, after being traded by Toronto for a bag of pucks Jamie Macoun: Won a Stanley Cup after being run out of Toronto |
|
|
|
Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Jun 3, 2004 8:13:57 GMT -5
Hey! If the Leafs want him gone, then it must be a great pickup! Its almost a badge of honor to be detested by Leaf fans... Some other notable, "trade him, he'll never be anything!" players from the Center of the Universe: Steve Sullivan: 73 points Freddie Modin: 29 goals Jason Smith: Oiler team captain, rock solid defenseman Alyn McCauley: Selke candidate for best defensive forward Mike Johnson: 63 points 2 years ago (only played 11 games last year because of an injury) Mathieu Schneider: #1 defenseman in LA, had 46 points for Detroit last year Danny Markov: top 4 defenseman on the Philadelphia Flyers Kenny Jonsson: top 4 defenseman on the Islanders Larry Murphy: won 2 Stanley Cups after being booed out of Toronto Kirk Muller: made it to the Stanley Cup finals as a member of the "grumpy old men" line, after being traded by Toronto for a bag of pucks Jamie Macoun: Won a Stanley Cup after being run out of Toronto Hmmm, since you put it that way... Nah! I just don't get a warm fuzzy feeling when I imagine The Stork in a Habs jersey. Instead I have visions of Ribeiro skating rings around him in a couple of years. But I could be wrong. |
|
|
|
Post by BadCompany on Jun 3, 2004 8:15:04 GMT -5
I never actually suggested we trade Ribeiro for him. I wouldn't mind having both of them, to be honest with you...
|
|
|
|
Post by Doc Holliday on Jun 3, 2004 8:32:33 GMT -5
To throw in my 2 cents, I agree with BC that the BPA is a notion that is wildly subjective but as well, I usually end up being more comfortable when we pick a player that's ranked according to where we pick (with more or less 2 spots) then when we reach and pick a guy ranked way lower because of a certain quality (he's big and ruff...) Simply put, immediate needs at the NHL level are not to be addressed at the draft table. A guy can take 3-4 years to reach the NHL (if he ever does), a good GM will not (should not) wait that long to address an immediate need. That being said, a good GM should also make sure that his farm has a good blend of players in it and we are seriously lacking, as Blaise puts it, hardnosed offensive players. Trading up or down to get the guy you want seems like the thing to do under that light.
About Antropov, it would never happen, but I'd love him. He's following the usual path of Leafs prospect, ie being acclaimed by Leafs fans as a sure shot franchise forward before he even laid one skate on an NHL rink to being a no good bum after not instantly realizing this prediction. He's a good young player and we don't have to get him at the expense of Ribs either because he can play the wing. Antropov-Ribs-Ryder would be an interesting line.
|
|
|
|
Post by Forum Ghost on Jun 3, 2004 13:43:19 GMT -5
Can't say that I'm a big fan of Antropov either.
I'm not, and never have been, too high on Big Nik. He has the size, but I think that he lacks the natural talent to succeed as a top-six forward. He seems to look rather clumsy when he's out on the ice. He also doesn't strike me as that hard of a worker. He looks like he's floating around a lot of the time. He's also prone to taking stupid penalties at crucial times in the game.
In any case, if we're looking for a way to upgrade the second line, we should look at talent rather than size. Dagenais had size (very similar to Antropov), but many of us don't see him as having the skating ability, intensity, or talent, to be a fixture on our top-six.
I'm afraid I see the same type of problems with Antropov.
Just my two cents.
|
|
|
|
Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Jun 3, 2004 13:54:12 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Jun 3, 2004 14:08:26 GMT -5
If we take a goalie at #18, so be it. Nothing wrong with another good puck stopper in the organization. In a few years, assuming young Danis is for real and #18 develops as expected, BG would have the the option of moving Theo or Garon to fill a more pressing need. If either Marek Schwarz or Alvaro Montoya, both of whom some pundits have ranked in the top 18, should be around when Timmins stands up to announce the Habs pick, and he decides to call one of their names, I won't cry, no I won't shed a tear. |
|
|
|
Post by blaise on Jun 3, 2004 14:53:03 GMT -5
There seem to be a number of defensemen that should interest the Habs. All of the present D except Komisarek are over 30 or are approaching that age.
From what Mizral writes, Robbie Schremp sound more like a deluxe version of Ribeiro than another Palffy. Comments from anyone who's seen him?
|
|
|
|
Post by montreal on Jun 3, 2004 15:42:56 GMT -5
There seem to be a number of defensemen that should interest the Habs. All of the present D except Komisarek are over 30 or are approaching that age. From what Mizral writes, Robbie Schremp sound more like a deluxe version of Ribeiro than another Palffy. Comments from anyone who's seen him? Well not to sound like a jerk, but I usually don't put much stock into anything Mizral says about hockey, but that's just my opinion, nothing against the guy, I just usually find his opinions to be very hard to understand or agree with but I'm sure he's a great guy and I'm sure he put a ton of work into that top 30. As for Schremp I've seen him a few times myself, and I don't see Ribeiro really. Schremp to me is one of the most offensively skilled players in the draft. Great hands, flashy moves, stichandling, shot, passing. His skating is good but not great, his speed is good but not great, and there's been a lot of talk about him asking for a trade out of the Ice Dogs, not being picked for the U-20's (although they won the gold, so I guess they were right when they said they didn't need him) and his playoff performance this year. I can't say I like his attitude, as he came off as a cry baby when he wasn't picked for Team USA, but since I don't know the whole story I can't really say. What I have seen on the ice is impressive though. |
|
|
|
Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Jun 3, 2004 16:21:29 GMT -5
Well not to sound like a jerk, but I usually don't put much stock into anything Mizral says about hockey, but that's just my opinion, nothing against the guy, I just usually find his opinions to be very hard to understand or agree with but I'm sure he's a great guy and I'm sure he put a ton of work into that top 30. Yes, Mizral did put in a lot of work by the sounds of it and produced a well-written, insightful brief on his top 30 choices. The following is my annual draft preview. This one I put a significant amount more effort into it than I did last years. My top 30 in the draft are all scouted here. Please note that I saw most, but not all of the players here several times. I utalized scouting reports I could find on the net, as well as impressions I might have had from seeing a player from time to time, as well as contacting others who catch a lot more of these European leagues. Much of the information here was compiled over 6 months, took me about 2 weeks to put it all together here.
The scouting report, flaws, NHL potential, and Player Comparison are all my own.
In regards to player comparison, please note I am going more on the style of play rather than a complete and utter comparison. Some are lesser comparisons than others, as several players in this draft almost defied comparison. |
|
|
|
Post by NWTHabsFan on Jun 3, 2004 16:38:57 GMT -5
There seem to be a number of defensemen that should interest the Habs. All of the present D except Komisarek are over 30 or are approaching that age. This year's first round seems to be rather full of quality defencemen and goalies, with more goalies being projected as possible first rounders than I have seen in a long, long time. Going under the BPA assumption, there is a pretty good chance that one or some of those Dmen and goalies could be around and be part of AS and TT's BPA short list once spot #18 rolls around. All things being equal I would like to see a top notch D prospect with our first round pick, for those reasons you mention Blaise and considering our longer term depth in that position...but I won't cry over a stud forward or franchise goalie either!! Man, are the boys ever going to have a tough choice to make with all the players that might fall within the BPA group at #18. |
|
|
|
Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Jun 3, 2004 16:41:17 GMT -5
There seem to be a number of defensemen that should interest the Habs. All of the present D except Komisarek are over 30 or are approaching that age. Wes O'Neill, Johan Fransson, Oscar Hedman, Boris Valabik (big project) look like promising choices should they be around when the Habs pick. Cam Barker and Mike Green (BC's fave) won't be around. Too bad. So sad. It would be nice... |
|
|
|
Post by NWTHabsFan on Jun 3, 2004 16:46:12 GMT -5
I can't say I like his attitude, as he came off as a cry baby when he wasn't picked for Team USA, but since I don't know the whole story I can't really say. What I have seen on the ice is impressive though. I think that was the major factor influencing RedLine to really kick him out of their monthly top ten list early on this year. It is that uncertainty that will keep GM's guessing and not all of them will gamble if he is matched up against a better "sure bet" at their position early in the first round. As such, someone may get quite a steal similar to what may pan out with O'Sullivan from last year...or they may just get a hopeless head case who causes an organization more grief. Having a lot of first and second round picks like some teams have would really help!! |
|
|
|
Post by montreal on Jun 3, 2004 17:30:53 GMT -5
Wes O'Neill, Johan Fransson, Oscar Hedman, Boris Valabik (big project) look like promising choices should they be around when the Habs pick. Cam Barker and Mike Green (BC's fave) won't be around. Too bad. So sad. It would be nice... I think Valabik will be drafted before Green. I've heard that the panthers are interested in him, but I don't think they will go with him at 8th or so where they pick. I'd say he goes top 15. Green is on the small side for a defensemen, but should be right around Valabik, top 25 I'd say although I don't see much of the WHL. Wes O'Neil I would say has dropped, if not for his size/skating, he'd be a 2nd rounder imo. I've seen him a number of times and I wasn't impressed. His offensive game didn't really show up this year (2 goals) but Noter Dame did have one of the best seasons I've seen from them. Fransson and Hedman I'm really interested in, wouldn't mind seeing either one of them as Habs. I still think AJ Thelen is the top defensemen in this draft. 41 points as a freshman is insane! Not only that but he plays a great all rond game and is physical, skates well, good size. |
|
|
|
Post by blaise on Jun 3, 2004 17:45:55 GMT -5
Well not to sound like a jerk, but I usually don't put much stock into anything Mizral says about hockey, but that's just my opinion, nothing against the guy, I just usually find his opinions to be very hard to understand or agree with but I'm sure he's a great guy and I'm sure he put a ton of work into that top 30. As for Schremp I've seen him a few times myself, and I don't see Ribeiro really. Schremp to me is one of the most offensively skilled players in the draft. Great hands, flashy moves, stichandling, shot, passing. His skating is good but not great, his speed is good but not great, and there's been a lot of talk about him asking for a trade out of the Ice Dogs, not being picked for the U-20's (although they won the gold, so I guess they were right when they said they didn't need him) and his playoff performance this year. I can't say I like his attitude, as he came off as a cry baby when he wasn't picked for Team USA, but since I don't know the whole story I can't really say. What I have seen on the ice is impressive though. You make Schremp sound better than Ribeiro except for his attitude. Is he really? |
|
|
|
Post by montreal on Jun 3, 2004 17:51:19 GMT -5
You make Schremp sound better than Ribeiro except for his attitude. Is he really? That's hard to say. Ribeiro was a great juniors player, but I'm still shocked at how well he did this year. Schremp does not have Ribeiro's vision or playmaking, but he's got a way better shot, very good hands, better skating, speed, size, strength, defensive play then Ribs had in the Q. To be honest I loved Ribs in the Q, but never thought he would be sucessful in the NHL. Schremp is very skilled, but he has less intangables to improve on. I could see Schremp turning into a better player then Ribs, if Ribs doesn't continue to get better. But I also hate to compare prospects with NHLers, and never understood why people try to compare them. Schremp imo is clearly one of the most skilled players in this draft, after that we'll have to see what he does. |
|
:
