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Post by CentreHice on Jan 25, 2014 0:29:23 GMT -5
I think it's time for Bergevin to deviate from his plan of standing pat and building through the draft.
He certainly must realize:
--we're not going to win the Cup at this rate with that plan. Who's in the system that warrants a saviour label? Not one! Unless we tank a la the Oilers, we won't be getting "saviour" players anyway.
--by the time we see anything CLOSE to a Cup with that plan, the team will look totally different...just via RETIREMENT!
It's time to truly consider speeding up the process by dealing some of your assets to teams in the legit Cup race....Markov being the prime candidate. I know he's got sort of a NTC...but things can be worked out.
There are teams who would likely give quality in return....including a high pick or two.
It's simply NOT going to happen with his current plan.
Just as a great coach recognizes when to make strategic changes during a game....a great GM does the same during the season.
To stick to your ways in the constant face of stalled development is stubbornness.
===================================================
I know hindsight is 20/20, but Skilly suggested dealing Markov years ago. Too bad the knee problems got in the way.....but who knows who we could've gotten for him back then? Like I said, though...that's the benefit of hindsight. No sense in bemoaning the past.
It's time for some SHREWD asset management, MB....and I don't mean trying to move only Bourque.
Then again, MB might not do anything that would jeopardize a few games of playoff revenue for his boss. Molson's already been through that....and is likely not a fan. And so, the wheels continue to spin....
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Post by blny on Jan 25, 2014 4:01:00 GMT -5
I mentioned moving Plekanec in another thread. I think now is the time. DD is hard to move. It's time to get Eller and Galchenyuk playing center every night. Tomas has a reasonable contract, can play just about any role you need a center to play, and should fetch a very good return. Either a really good LWer, or an upgrade to the blue line.
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Post by jkr on Jan 25, 2014 6:24:28 GMT -5
Management has to be cold blooded about it and ask - where have the veteran players taken this team?
Unfortuntely most of the guys I want gone are hardly desirable but at least some are UFA - Bouillion, Murray, Gionta. I think Markov should be dealt.
You may be right about Plekanec. He's still relatively young at 31 but by the time this team gets anywhere he could be in his mid thirties & on the downside. He would be a valuable piece to a true contender.
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Post by Skilly on Jan 25, 2014 7:59:47 GMT -5
When I suggested trading Markov back in 2008-09 season, it was based on him being our only asset at the time that would get us a high scoring forward. I figured we were drafted D-men , lots of d-men, so if one just panned out, we'd have Markov replaced AND that forward we can never seem to land. Hindsight is indeed 20/20, but I still wonder what we'd look like with ..... Subban Emelin and McDonnagh (no way we trade him if we got the forward with Markov) ... Of course this means we might have missed out on future picks like Galchenyuk and Tinordi
What should he do now?
First and foremost, he needs to recognize what kind of team he has. Once he does that, cause I'm not convinced he even knows, then he has to impress on MT to coach them that way or find someone that will.
I agree there is NO way you can build the Habs through the draft. We don't finish low enough, often enough, and our late picks first round picks are not exactly those "wow" types. (have you seen McCarron play this year?). MB has to start earning his GM salary, by actually out-GMing the other teams. I don't see that happening, he is way to conservative. I think he should target teams like The Isles or Washington and attempt to package Markov to get their first rounder. It's our only way to get into the top 5
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Post by CentreHice on Jan 25, 2014 8:25:17 GMT -5
If MB wants to capitalize on the primes of Subban, Price, Pacioretty, Gallagher, and Galchenyuk, he has to move some of the older assets who still have value....because they won't be here anyway. Or they'll all be like Gionta, Briere, and Bouillon.
Our young stud core will become older, cynical former studs if mired in this mediocrity. Yeah, the money's fantastic either way, but I think that the desire for a Cup is always there.
Sure makes coming to work easier if you know your company's on the right path.
We've been on a perpetual losing path for at least 15 years....with no end in sight at this rate. Gotta give to get.
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Post by christrpn on Jan 25, 2014 8:37:44 GMT -5
I don't believe trading assets for other teams garbage is the situation. Right now the names of available players are Moulson in Buffalo, Boyes in Florida and Vanek in NY. Are any of these guys going to brring a cup to Montreal? Not by themselves for sure. So we give up a pick, a prospect or two and maybe a roster player. Keep in mind these guys are UFA's at end of year and there is no guarantee they stay. Seems like a high price to pay. Players we want at a contact that is doable are either not on the market, or are too expensive. Another player like Patches would be great, but not at the cost of #67 himself. Unfortunately, we have to be patient with the draft. Fans here in Montreal won't accept another season of last place finishing. Other teams are successful drafting late in the first round. No reason we can't be either. Look at Edmonton, they have so many early first round picks and it is not working out any more for them as it is for us.
I read on Twitter that MB was in talks with Carolina concerning a Bourque for Ruutu swap. Carolina would retain salary if Habs throw in a pick/prospect. Seems like a sideways move, especially since Ruutu's cap hit is $4.75M for two years and actual salary is $5M. Bourque's cap hit is $3.33M and actual salary is $4M. Drops to $2.5M for last two years of contract. I'd rather keep Bourque, no?
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Post by BadCompany on Jan 25, 2014 8:49:09 GMT -5
I think it's time for Bergevin to deviate from his plan of standing pat and building through the draft. He certainly must realize: --we're not going to win the Cup at this rate with that plan. Who's in the system that warrants a saviour label? Not one! Unless we tank a la the Oilers, we won't be getting "saviour" players anyway. --by the time we see anything CLOSE to a Cup with that plan, the team will look totally different...just via RETIREMENT! It's time to truly consider speeding up the process by dealing some of your assets to teams in the legit Cup race....Markov being the prime candidate. I know he's got sort of a NTC...but things can be worked out. There are teams who would likely give quality in return....including a high pick or two. It's simply NOT going to happen with his current plan. Just as a great coach recognizes when to make strategic changes during a game....a great GM does the same during the season. To stick to your ways in the constant face of stalled development is stubbornness. =================================================== I know hindsight is 20/20, but Skilly suggested dealing Markov years ago. Too bad the knee problems got in the way.....but who knows who we could've gotten for him back then? Like I said, though...that's the benefit of hindsight. No sense in bemoaning the past. It's time for some SHREWD asset management, MB....and I don't mean trying to move only Bourque. Then again, MB might not do anything that would jeopardize a few games of playoff revenue for his boss. Molson's already been through that....and is likely not a fan. And so, the wheels continue to spin.... I think you are being a little bit contradictory there, when you say that we need to speed up the process and can't rely solely on building through the draft, but then saying we need to deal assets like Plekanec and Markov for draft picks. It doesn't really work that way; the teams looking for guys like Plekanec and Markov are not teams that are going to be having high draft picks, with the possible exception of the Islanders who have already traded their first. It's really a question of where you think the team is. Close, or not so close. Given that Bergevin APPEARS to want to build through the draft I'm going to say that he doesn't think we are close. I say "appears" because ALL GMs say they are going to build through the draft, keep their kids, etcetera. So that doesn't necessarily mean much. Now by "not close" I don't mean 10 years away, but perhaps 3-5 years away. In five years Price will be 31, Pacioretty 30, Subban 29, Tinordi and Beaulieu 26, Galchenyuk 24, McCarron 23 and so on. All our "real" players, if you will, will be right in their primes, or just coming into them. Now of course we've all seen this movie before, relying on prospects, but in my opinion at least four of those guys are locks to be stars already (Price, Pacioretty, Subban and Galchenyuk), so there is a pretty good nucleus being developed. With a little bit of luck and some patience (I know, I know) we could have something special in a couple of years. I am loathe to quote Pierre McGuire, but he always talks about the "Seven Player Profile" a contending team must have, and while I don't know if that is the only way to build a team,in the absence of any other formula let's use his and see how we could stack up. Player 1, #1 all star center: Alex GalchenyukPlayer 2. #2 all star center: ?? Player 3. Top power forward: Max PaciorettyPlayer 4. Specialist/Utility Player/Agitator/Shutdown center: ?? (Eller maybe?) Player 5. All star offensive d-man: SubbanPlayer 6. Top shutdown d-man: Tinordi Player 7. All star goalie: PriceBased on that model we're actually pretty close, we just need some time to let guys like Galchenyuk and Tinordi, and maybe Eller, develop into their roles. Which requires patience, but what are you going to do? Now on the other hand, if Bergevin thinks that we are not that far away, then you have to start dealing picks and prospects to fill those missing holes to put you into the elite category. That means dealing guys like Beaulieu and Tinordi, maybe even Galchenyuk. And picks. Lots of picks. I don't think we are in that category yet, and while I would like to see Bergevin make some moves to at least provide us with some entertaining hockey I think we are still a good ways off and need more time. I look at the core of the team, the alleged "leaders" of the team, and I see Gionta, Markov, Plekanec, Gorges, and I'm not all that impressed. These are not guys that will carry you to a Cup, in my humble opinion. So I don't see us trying to add to this core and being all that successful. I don't think we need to tank, and I'm certainly not advocating it. I think we can add to this team without hurting the future and still have an entertaining playoff run. Which is what I would like to see Bergevin do. But I think, and I think he thinks, that our REAL future lies 3-5 years from now.
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Post by CentreHice on Jan 25, 2014 8:57:20 GMT -5
I don't believe trading assets for other teams garbage is the situation. Right now the names of available players are Moulson in Buffalo, Boyes in Florida and Vanek in NY. Are any of these guys going to brring a cup to Montreal? Not by themselves for sure. So we give up a pick, a prospect or two and maybe a roster player. Keep in mind these guys are UFA's at end of year and there is no guarantee they stay. Seems like a high price to pay. Players we want at a contact that is doable are either not on the market, or are too expensive. Another player like Patches would be great, but not at the cost of #67 himself. I'm not advocating accepting garbage players in return for guys like Markov and Pleks, e.g. And I'm not talking about a quick fix. Just a quicker pace....otherwise we'll be wasting the careers of Price, Subban, et al. Those players have to be built around. Unfortunately, we have to be patient with the draft. Fans here in Montreal won't accept another season of last place finishing. Other teams are successful drafting late in the first round. No reason we can't be either. Look at Edmonton, they have so many early first round picks and it is not working out any more for them as it is for us. Drafted players, especially those later in first round, usually take 5 years to have any impact at all. So, 2014's draftees will be ready when Price is 31, Subban is 29. Let's be patient, though...2015's draftees will be here soon....then 2016's. What happened to Price? Oh, he's 33....too bad we didn't go for it in his prime years. Plekanec and Markov are at that stage now. I wonder what they'd say if they were asked if they'd wished Gainey would've managed those 10 UFAs better instead of just letting them walk. Time for aggressive, but shrewd, asset management.
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Post by christrpn on Jan 25, 2014 8:57:40 GMT -5
I think you are being a little bit contradictory there, when you say that we need to speed up the process and can't rely solely on building through the draft, but then saying we need to deal assets like Plekanec and Markov for draft picks. It doesn't really work that way; the teams looking for guys like Plekanec and Markov are not teams that are going to be having high draft picks, with the possible exception of the Islanders who have already traded their first. It's really a question of where you think the team is. Close, or not so close. Given that Bergevin APPEARS to want to build through the draft I'm going to say that he doesn't think we are close. I say "appears" because ALL GMs say they are going to build through the draft, keep their kids, etcetera. So that doesn't necessarily mean much. Now by "not close" I don't mean 10 years away, but perhaps 3-5 years away. In five years Price will be 31, Pacioretty 30, Subban 29, Tinordi and Beaulieu 26, Galchenyuk 24, McCarron 23 and so on. All our "real" players, if you will, will be right in their primes, or just coming into them. Now of course we've all seen this movie before, relying on prospects, but in my opinion at least four of those guys are locks to be stars already (Price, Pacioretty, Subban and Galchenyuk), so there is a pretty good nucleus being developed. With a little bit of luck and some patience (I know, I know) we could have something special in a couple of years. I am loathe to quote Pierre McGuire, but he always talks about the "Seven Player Profile" a contending team must have, and while I don't know if that is the only way to build a team,in the absence of any other formula let's use his and see how we could stack up. Player 1, #1 all star center: Alex GalchenyukPlayer 2. #2 all star center: ?? Player 3. Top power forward: Max PaciorettyPlayer 4. Specialist/Utility Player/Agitator/Shutdown center: ?? (Eller maybe?) Player 5. All star offensive d-man: SubbanPlayer 6. Top shutdown d-man: Tinordi Player 7. All star goalie: PriceBased on that model we're actually pretty close, we just need some time to let guys like Galchenyuk and Tinordi, and maybe Eller, develop into their roles. Which requires patience, but what are you going to do? Now on the other hand, if Bergevin thinks that we are not that far away, then you have to start dealing picks and prospects to fill those missing holes to put you into the elite category. That means dealing guys like Beaulieu and Tinordi, maybe even Galchenyuk. And picks. Lots of picks. I don't think we are in that category yet, and while I would like to see Bergevin make some moves to at least provide us with some entertaining hockey I think we are still a good ways off and need more time. I look at the core of the team, the alleged "leaders" of the team, and I see Gionta, Markov, Plekanec, Gorges, and I'm not all that impressed. These are not guys that will carry you to a Cup, in my humble opinion. So I don't see us trying to add to this core and being all that successful. I don't think we need to tank, and I'm certainly not advocating it. I think we can add to this team without hurting the future and still have an entertaining playoff run. Which is what I would like to see Bergevin do. But I think, and I think he thinks, that our REAL future lies 3-5 years from now. I believe, given the right team, Plekanec can play the same role as Bergeron in Boston. Problem is that we are expecting him to provide the bulk of the offense as well. We don't have a stable scoring line, let alone two. It's nice to have the formula, but even if we have all those pieces, the supporting cast has to be there as well. We will never have a Crosby type, who can make guys like Kunitz look like snipers. So we have to have that supporting cast that is slightly better than Kunitz. I do agree that MB is stiv=cking to his guns and we will have a nice team in 3-5 yrs.
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Post by CentreHice on Jan 25, 2014 9:00:56 GMT -5
I think you are being a little bit contradictory there, when you say that we need to speed up the process and can't rely solely on building through the draft, but then saying we need to deal assets like Plekanec and Markov for draft picks. I said INCLUDING a high pick or two. Not ONLY a high pick or two. We're not close....and we're not going to be close at this rate with this plan, IMO.
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Post by christrpn on Jan 25, 2014 9:01:31 GMT -5
I don't believe trading assets for other teams garbage is the situation. Right now the names of available players are Moulson in Buffalo, Boyes in Florida and Vanek in NY. Are any of these guys going to brring a cup to Montreal? Not by themselves for sure. So we give up a pick, a prospect or two and maybe a roster player. Keep in mind these guys are UFA's at end of year and there is no guarantee they stay. Seems like a high price to pay. Players we want at a contact that is doable are either not on the market, or are too expensive. Another player like Patches would be great, but not at the cost of #67 himself. I'm not advocating accepting garbage players in return for guys like Markov and Pleks, e.g. And I'm not talking about a quick fix. Just a quicker pace....otherwise we'll be wasting the careers of Price, Subban, et al. Those players have to be built around. Unfortunately, we have to be patient with the draft. Fans here in Montreal won't accept another season of last place finishing. Other teams are successful drafting late in the first round. No reason we can't be either. Look at Edmonton, they have so many early first round picks and it is not working out any more for them as it is for us. And how's that been working out for us for the past 21 years? Drafted players, especially those later in first round, usually take 5 years to have any impact at all. So, 2014's draftees will be ready when Price is 31, Subban is 29. Let's be patient, though...2015's draftees will be here soon....then 2016's. What happened to Price? Oh, he's 33....too bad we didn't go for it in his prime years. Plekanec and Markov are there now. I wonder what they'd say if they were asked if they'd wished Gainey would've managed those 10 UFAs better instead of just letting them walk. Time for aggressive, but shrewd, asset management. So we trade Gionta, Pleks and Markov to teams who will want them, so say teams who are already contenders. They will not hand over roster players and difference makers. They will need them. So they give us picks or prospects. If picks, they will be worse than what we already have, the only thing viable will be prospects who already did the 5yr development. Any prospects in contender teams on anybody"s radar?
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Post by CentreHice on Jan 25, 2014 9:11:11 GMT -5
It's not my job to know who's available.
But if I'm MB, I'm exploring that....or having some of my crackerjack staff look into it....(not saying that they aren't).
I don't want a panic fire sale....but it can be a quicker process. We continually burn through all of our stars' careers here without truly building around and capitalizing on them.
I know it's much more difficult in a 30-team league in the cap era.
This pace is ridiculous. Ken Holland lucked out in several late rounds with Lidstrom, Datsyuk, and Zetterberg....but he also built around them. Love to see a list of the moves he made...albeit it was before the cap.
Hey, it's not easy. I acknowledge that.
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Post by CentreHice on Jan 25, 2014 9:29:12 GMT -5
I look at the core of the team, the alleged "leaders" of the team, and I see Gionta, Markov, Plekanec, Gorges, and I'm not all that impressed. These are not guys that will carry you to a Cup, in my humble opinion. So I don't see us trying to add to this core and being all that successful. Bingo! That's my point. Why not try to move them now while they still have value as "pieces for closer teams" in order to add age-appropriate contemporaries to our younger core? I don't think we need to tank, and I'm certainly not advocating it. I think we can add to this team without hurting the future and still have an entertaining playoff run. Which is what I would like to see Bergevin do. But I think, and I think he thinks, that our REAL future lies 3-5 years from now. I don't think we should tank, either. And moving guys like the ones above won't hurt our future. Asset management/Building a winner includes more than just hoping you draft the right players.
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Post by The Habitual Fan on Jan 25, 2014 9:42:54 GMT -5
I always felt that Gainey missed a golden opportunity when he had several big names with expiring contracts and a team that we all knew would likely makes the playoffs but not go very far. He could have moved Koivu, Komoserak, and the others at the deadline for a stable of prospects and picks but chose not too knowing full well he was not going to try and resign any of them. He then took all that extra cap space to sign Gomez, Gionta, Cammerelli and made the team no better in the process. I see MB in a very similar position now where Bourque, Markov, Briere, Gionta, Moen, Bouillion are all movable pieces for at least something you can use to build on going forward. If they are not part of the future then take the hard hit of throwing away this season to gather assets for the next few, supposing you get a collection of some 19 year old guys with potential and a handful of extra 2nd round picks over the next 2-3 years.
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Post by madhabber on Jan 25, 2014 10:45:39 GMT -5
I fully agree with the general sentiment of this thread. Guys like Markov, Plekanec and Gorges can get us some decent picks and/or prospects. Others like Diaz, Gionta and Moen can get us something and Briere, Bourque, Murray, Bouillon maybe something. Let's face it we aren't going anywhere with these guys. At this rate, we will be sliding out of the playoffs before the Olympics.
Patches took 4 years to become a permanent fixture on this team. PK took 3, Beaulieu still isn't a regular in his 3rd year after his draft. Tinordi in his 4th Leblanc in his 5th so far. So 4 to 5 years to make an NHLer out of a draft, like CH has been saying, in 4 to 5 years, these new draft picks will mature just in time to take advantage of our young core's peak years.
You can't just pick one 18 year old every year in the middle of the pack and expect to be building something. Unless you get lucky and draft the guy that everyone missed out on, you're just getting the average guy.
Chicago won the cup by getting all those top draft picks by finishing last. LA won by reuniting 3 of the top picks of 2003 with a decent core. If we can have 3 first rounders in the next draft and some additional picks, then most of those guys will mature at roughly the same time. Not only that, but those picks will be competing against each other to get noticed and for playing time. Pleks and Markov can get us a 1st each. Pleks more since he's still under contract. Gorges and Gionta should get us another 2nd each. And the rest, we take what we get.
And then you call up Pateryn and Tinordi and whoever is left on the farm to fill your holes. Pacthes-DD-Gallagher Bournival-Eller-Leblanc Prust-Galchenyuk-Holland Dumont-White-Blunden Parros Subban-Tinordi Beaulieu-Emelin Pateryn-Bouillon
If you can't find anyone to take Briere or Bourque, then you keep them. They are temporary band-aids anyway. As long as you get your building blocks for Pleks, Markov and others.
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Post by franko on Jan 25, 2014 10:53:32 GMT -5
Based on that model we're actually pretty close, we just need some time to let guys like Galchenyuk and Tinordi, and maybe Eller, develop into their roles. Which requires patience, but what are you going to do? and therein lies the problem. we have a coach who does not know what patience is. young guy makes a mistake? to the dungeon press box!. or don't move off that bench! a teaching moment becomes a slagging moment, and there's another good pick wasted. I didn't expect that we'd win a Cup this year . . . I did expect player improvement. not seeing it -- just the same mediocrity as in the past. winning used to burn in this team's belly . . . has it been doused by years of nothingness?
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Post by BadCompany on Jan 25, 2014 11:29:13 GMT -5
I fully agree with the general sentiment of this thread. Guys like Markov, Plekanec and Gorges can get us some decent picks and/or prospects. Others like Diaz, Gionta and Moen can get us something and Briere, Bourque, Murray, Bouillon maybe something. Let's face it we aren't going anywhere with these guys. At this rate, we will be sliding out of the playoffs before the Olympics. Patches took 4 years to become a permanent fixture on this team. PK took 3, Beaulieu still isn't a regular in his 3rd year after his draft. Tinordi in his 4th Leblanc in his 5th so far. So 4 to 5 years to make an NHLer out of a draft, like CH has been saying, in 4 to 5 years, these new draft picks will mature just in time to take advantage of our young core's peak years. You can't just pick one 18 year old every year in the middle of the pack and expect to be building something. Unless you get lucky and draft the guy that everyone missed out on, you're just getting the average guy. Chicago won the cup by getting all those top draft picks by finishing last. LA won by reuniting 3 of the top picks of 2003 with a decent core. If we can have 3 first rounders in the next draft and some additional picks, then most of those guys will mature at roughly the same time. Not only that, but those picks will be competing against each other to get noticed and for playing time. Pleks and Markov can get us a 1st each. Pleks more since he's still under contract. Gorges and Gionta should get us another 2nd each. And the rest, we take what we get. And then you call up Pateryn and Tinordi and whoever is left on the farm to fill your holes. Pacthes-DD-Gallagher Bournival-Eller-Leblanc Prust-Galchenyuk-Holland Dumont-White-Blunden Parros Subban-Tinordi Beaulieu-Emelin Pateryn-Bouillon If you can't find anyone to take Briere or Bourque, then you keep them. They are temporary band-aids anyway. As long as you get your building blocks for Pleks, Markov and others. Well that sounds like a tank to me, which is something I don't think we have to do. We talk about needing those "high picks" but in my opinion we've already got three of them; Price, Galchenyuk and Subban, who while he wasn't a high pick is essentially the same thing. So I don't think we need to get more of those high picks, or even more picks. I think we just need to have patience with the picks we have, and recognize that we need 3-5 years for THAT core to hit it's peak. The current core of Plekanec, Markov, Gorges and Gionta isn't going to win us a Cup in my opinion, but that doesn't mean those guys can't be useful players for us in the interim. We still want to make the playoffs, we still want to win, we still want to develop a culture of winning for our "real" core, if you will. And when that "real" core is ready to take us to the promised land we are still going to need those other complimentary players to surround them. I'm not saying we shouldn't trade those guys, just that in my opinion we don't HAVE to trade them. We don't need to tank, we just need to accept that our real future is still a few years away, still developing. The guys are in the system. But that doesn't mean we can't still win, or heck, even fluke into a Cup if Price goes crazy. Just that we shouldn't expect it at this point. But if I'm trading away a Plekanec, for example, I want a player who can step in right away, not just some draft picks. I still want to make the playoffs, I still want that to be our goal. Just don't touch the "real" core and temper our expectations.
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Post by stoat on Jan 25, 2014 12:14:59 GMT -5
Has anyone considered the possible improvement in players who are seemingly playing below their level if their morale were improved? I can think of no better way of achieving it it than running Therrien out of town, Bite the bullet, Bergevin, you erred badly.
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Post by CentreHice on Jan 25, 2014 12:23:15 GMT -5
I always felt that Gainey missed a golden opportunity when he had several big names with expiring contracts and a team that we all knew would likely makes the playoffs but not go very far. He could have moved Koivu, Komoserak, and the others at the deadline for a stable of prospects and picks but chose not too knowing full well he was not going to try and resign any of them. He then took all that extra cap space to sign Gomez, Gionta, Cammerelli and made the team no better in the process. I see MB in a very similar position now where Bourque, Markov, Briere, Gionta, Moen, Bouillion are all movable pieces for at least something you can use to build on going forward. If they are not part of the future then take the hard hit of throwing away this season to gather assets for the next few, supposing you get a collection of some 19 year old guys with potential and a handful of extra 2nd round picks over the next 2-3 years. At, but that was the Centennial Year....and how could Gainey start dealing amid all the celebrations? It was so much better to be completely outmatched in a pathetic sweep to the Bruins in Round 1. Anybody else tired of this ride?
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Post by seventeen on Jan 25, 2014 12:48:10 GMT -5
I agree with your timeline, BC, that we have to have a better team by the time Price, Subban and Galchenyuk are in their primes. They are the elite quality players who can carry a team, so the trick is developing a supporting cast. Outside of some Machiavellen strategy which only Cranky can come up with, I advocate making some serious changes this year at the trade deadline. Of the players we have, the few who could generate some trade value and who are old enough to not form part of the next Habs are Markov, Plekanec, Moen and Gorges. I don't think anyone is taking on Gionta, but who knows? Diaz could be added to sweeten a deal if a team could use a puck moving dman.
Next you target teams who are legitimate cup contenders, but who may feel that they are weak in a specific area, which we can fill, of course. Then, you look at who's in these teams farm system who were drafted in the last 3 years. That's long enough to figure out whether they still have some potential or are busts. BC brought up one name, Luca Sbisa of Anaheim. He's the type of player who fits this description. Fortunately, we're not going after the players their teams are really hesitant to part with. Not their blue chip prospects (though if we could wangle one of those, more power to us). For example, we'd ask for Derrick Pouliot and not Ollie Maata from Pittsburgh. Because we will have an excellent core, we're looking at the supporting cast, who have to end up being solid NHL'rs, not stars. I think we could get something from teams like Anaheim, Pittsburgh (bit weak on D, so how does Josh look to you?, Ray), San Jose, LA, or St. Louis. One might even target a team which is desperate to make the playoffs and has a short term outlook.
A change in leadership is necessary and this will start the process. We have to hand the torch to PK and Gallagher, and hand some playing time to Beaulieu, Tinordi, Bournival and Pateryn. Leblanc looked at least competitive yesterday and while he has some overall skating issues, he created some opportunities, which surprised me, so maybe he gets some more ice time too. Let's break in the youngsters.
And this is where Berg can make his biggest move, whether it's now or in the off-season. We absolutely need better leadership behind the bench. Take the next 3 months and look for that guy. Find a coach who can grow with this team.
The risk is that by making this many changes so quickly, we'd fall right off the map. This year that may not matter so much and unless Berg changes coaches during the season, it's quite likely to evolve that way (If the captain is steering toward the iceberg, different passengers aren't going to matter). Net result is a better draft choice in a weak draft, but maybe we'd luck out and win the lottery, giving us a shot at a pretty good prospect.
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Post by CentreHice on Jan 25, 2014 12:48:35 GMT -5
I'm not saying we shouldn't trade those guys, just that in my opinion we don't HAVE to trade them. We don't need to tank, we just need to accept that our real future is still a few years away, still developing. The guys are in the system. But that doesn't mean we can't still win, or heck, even fluke into a Cup if Price goes crazy. Just that we shouldn't expect it at this point. But if I'm trading away a Plekanec, for example, I want a player who can step in right away, not just some draft picks. I still want to make the playoffs, I still want that to be our goal. Just don't touch the "real" core and temper our expectations. I think we're a lot closer in opinion than you think. I'm not saying to trade them just for picks. You could get a serviceable younger player or even a prospect who's 3 years past draft, ready to join our young guard. And perhaps even a pick or two with it. Then you perhaps use those picks to package another player making it more attractive. It's a chess game. Sam Pollock always seemed to have picks galore with which to package and deal. (different era notwithstanding). How he got Lafleur was a gamble...but also very astute/shrewd. That's what this team needs now. Bergevin is still riding on Gainey/Gauthier fumes In fact, it could be argued that he's delayed the progress of this team in hiring Therrien, extending DD, and signing Briere to two years. Parros has been a complete non-factor....and Murray...well, he's Hal Gill who's willing to hit. Bergevin said, when he was hired, that a good GM is on the phone to every GM at least once a week. That may have been a platitude. I'm hoping he's the most brilliant GM since Pollock....but wishful thinking gets you nowhere. Those over-the-top pieces aren't in our system. If he stands pat, IMO, we'll have Subban, Price, Pacioretty, Gallagher, and Galchenyuk leading the way in 3 years with support players who STILL aren't good enough. So...not a tank. I'm talking shrewd asset management. Not dramatic....slow and steady over the next two seasons, so when the 3-5 year window of our studs' primes are here...we're ready to truly compete. Still don't know if I'm clear enough.
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Post by HFTO on Jan 25, 2014 13:09:15 GMT -5
The time has come to know when to fold the and honestly if MB is shrewd enough he will get a few bodies back and a stockpile of mid to late round picks here is my list of what has to go and what should go if possible.
UFA's
Markov is the big fish he will get you the biggest return but he also has to approve where he goes but the West is so contentious you maybe able to drive up the price "IF" like I said he goes.
Gionta would be a decent third liner maybe able to get prospect or mid round pick
Murray Boullion Diaz....the first two maybe a late rounder Diaz may fetch you another D man or body
Parros....probably nothing super lucky if you could get that 7th back
RFA's
Eller I don't want to move unless you get at player who can play I keep him as an RFA he won't cost us very much and Habs need $$$
Leblanc....cheap and if you can define a role he fills a third fourth line spot
White again cheap but I think he can be replaced with a more consistent and effective guy
Problem Contracts
Bourque...may have to take a bad contract back so question is can you get better value with shrewd pro scouting.
Gorges time is now would e valuable 5/6 guy for playoff team mid round or younger body
Moen same if youi can move him I would look at it for late pick or younger body
Briere if the Bufal rumours are true get Ott or Stafford L.A. needs scoring would they give us Clifford???..doubtful but they maybe desperate.
So assume you could peddle all this crap you would be left with
Pleks, Patches, DD, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Prust, Eller, Leblanc, Bournival Subban Emelin Tinordi Beaulieu Pateryn...add a few bodies on the back end and up front in these transactions and you still maybe able to steal a spot if they don't fly too far south in the next three weeks these are the guys contributing and we don't touch picks or prospects.
Wishful thinking but MB has to make it happen.
HFTO
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Post by seventeen on Jan 25, 2014 13:27:45 GMT -5
Mithc Melnick's blog, repeating some of what we've already discussed. melnickblog.blogspot.ca/?view=classic WAKE UP CALLS FOR BERGEVIN, THERRIEN So now what?
After making the worst Detroit Red Wings since Gerard Gallant played for them (Don't snicker. The Habs assistant coach was a 36 goal scorer for the last Detroit team to miss the playoffs. Nearly 25 years ago) look like legit Stanley Cup champs again have the Canadiens hit rock bottom? Or does it get worse should they lose on home ice to a Washington Capitals team that's in deeper disarray than they are (Five straight losses. Two wins in their last 10 games)?
As noted in previous blogs, disturbing signs have been there for weeks. Whatever might happen on the ice during a game is one thing but the Habs always appeared ready to compete. Until they pulled a no show in Philadelphia. And while it's true they bounced back big time to beat the Black Hawks for their high water mark of the season, their performance since has resembled that of an expansion team. Or the current edition of the Buffalo Sabres. Since the win over Chicago the Canadiens have been outscored 22-11. In their own end they look like a drunk marching band. In the neutral zone they look ready to go swim with the fish. Their once potent power play has turned into a popgun. And their once impenetrable penalty kill is now leaking like the roof on Pierre Gauthier's Vermont home.
Have they tuned out (and turned on) the coach? Sure looks like it. How does that explain the great effort against the defending Stanley Cup champs? Michel Therrien said it himself. "It's just one game...have fun."
I feel for Therrien. He's been through this. He knows it doesn't matter what the expectations are or that the GM has gone on record seeking stability, or whether it's fair or not. If and when a team decides they'd rather play for somebody else, copout or not, the bench gets a different look. If the Habs are not quite there they appear to be awfully close.
But Marc Bergevin himself has got to do something to try to salvage his first significant hire. The only major off season element he really added to the mix - after playing footsie with Vincent Lecavalier and turning down Jaromir Jagr - was to sign a small player who's on the downside of his career. It's clear that no amount of prodding - even to the point of knocking Lars Eller out of a centre slot - is going to reignite Daniel Briere. Eller (unless he's traded) is a lot more important to the Canadiens moving forward than any forward not named Pacioretty, Gallagher or Galchenyuk. If the Canadiens truly are building something then what is the point of Eller on the wing? What is the point of bringing up a former number one draft choice and playing him less than eight minutes a night, even when games are clearly over by the third period? This is an organizational decision year on Louis Leblanc. Play him. If he's blocked by veteran guys than Bergevin should move those guys out and make sure Therrien has no choice but to play him.
If there are veteran players grumbling about Therrien (Of course there are. The key point is who and how many?) Bergevin needs to give his coach better options. Who goes?
Andrei Markov. The LA Kings need offensive help, especially on the power play. Dean Lombardi must know that a Drew Doughty - Markov combo on the point would result in something better than a 14.7% success rate. Brian Gionta. Any number of playoff bound teams would love to add Gionta. Start with San Jose where Larry Robinson knows that Gionta has a lot more left than Scott Gomez did. New Jersey and the Rangers would also be an option. Travis Moen. Same story as Gionta. Yes he's locked in for another two years but his deal (1.8 million) is cap friendly. Briere. They've been trying to move him? Try harder. Rene Bourque. Ditto.
The Canadiens are falling out of a playoff spot with these older players. Might as well bring some new life into the room and speed up the "process" of developing key young players. Give Leblanc and Michael Bournival more than fourth line minutes. Bring up Greg Pateryn and/or Jarred Tinordi from Hamilton. Give Galchenyuk more meaningful minutes (surely Therrien sees the error of his ways).
You can always change coaches later on. But you can't hold onto these players.
This is no "tank" job. It's a necessity.
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Post by Boston_Habs on Jan 25, 2014 14:22:46 GMT -5
The thing about the 3-5 year plan is it gets management off the hook for the current state of affairs. I just don't buy the theory that Bergevin didn't think we'd be that good this year anyway. If hat was the case he wouldn't have signed guys like Briere and Murray. He would have used the cap space to lock Subban up long-term and he would have gone with guys like Tinordi, Beaulieu, Bournival and Leblanc over Murray, Briere, and Bouillon. In fact his stated reason for NOT signing PK was for the short term cap flexibility to sign free agents to be competitive.
That's not to say there isn't a long term plan. There is always a long term plan, and I agree BC that we've seen this movie before. THESE are the prospects that will lead us to the promised land. THIS time it will be different.
Nonsense. There is a good enough base to work with here. I look at the Bruins as a good comp. not a whole lot of elite talent, nobody in the top 20 in scoring, but they have depth, balance, and great goaltending. Bergevin had a chance last year to build better balance and he whiffed by signing DD, Briere, and Murray.
This is not the time to start selling off guys like Matkov and Pleks for pennies on the dollar. We need to work with what we have and build a team where our top 11 players, 6 forwards, 4 dmen, and goalie are competitive with the rest of the league.
Forwards: Plekanec, Pacioretty, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Eller, Defense: Subban, Markov, Emelin Goalie: Price
That's our core. We, like a lot of teams, need another top 6 forward and another top 4 dman. Maybe the other top 4 dman is in the system in the form of Beaulieu and/or Tonordi, but I would use either or both as trade bait to upgrade at D or Forward if that's what it takes. The other forward may be in the system ad well, but that's a long way off. Right now Bournival and Leblanc are our most NHL ready forwards and both of those guys are 3rd line material. Good players and you need a solid 3rd line but not players you build around.
That's why I'm pissed. I didn't feel we were that far off. I still don't, but Berg has just messed things up and pretty much wasted a year. At this point I would try and deal Gionta, Gorges, and Bourque. I don't care what we get back, but we need to start clearing spots for the guys who need to play. I would then dangle our 1st plus one of Tinordi or Beaulieu to get an immediate upgrade at forward. But I think the best time is around the draft. I don't think MB will get the best deal now.
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Post by blny on Jan 25, 2014 15:53:28 GMT -5
I don't think anyone is suggesting to pawn off Markov and Plekanec for pennies. Plekanec, in particular, would fetch a fine return on the market. There should be a long list of teams interested if a center of his caliber became available. I don't think a first and Tinordi/Beaulieu get us the player we want (someone to balance off Pacioretty's production a la Cole of 2011-12).
We're not going to be able to trade for a Ovechkin type, an elite 50 goal man unless we are prepared to trade Subban or Price. We're not. The only way we're going to get one of those is to draft one or get one via UFA. So, I look at players around the league that are comparable to Patches. Blake Wheeler, Evander Kane, Bobby Ryan, Jamie Benn, maybe Thomas Vanek. Plekanec is 31. These guys are 22-30. Pleks alone likely doesn't get Kane, simply because of the age difference. No way the Sens trade Ryan within the division imo. Vanek is doing well in NYI, but they're still a sub .500 team. They're not deep up the middle. It thins out dramatically after Tavares. Those types of players are the target. Another big scoring winger to insulate DD - because he simply isn't going anywhere til his numbers get back to where they were - is a must.
Then they have to decide what to do with Eller and Galchenyuk. Do you put the EGG line back together, or do you let them both play center?
Pacioretty -DD - Wheeler (for example) * - Galchenyuk - Gallagher Bournival - Eller - * Prust - White/center of your choice - Moen Replacement for Parros as 13th forward.
Maybe you finish out the season with the Egg line together. Maybe you give Eller and Galchenyuk the ball and let them run with it on their own lines. See who's best suited for center. Fill the "*" via UFA as we continue to lack scoring depth from the wing internally. We've got play makers, but lack enough finishers. Yah, we lose Plekanec on the PK, but there are low cost options out there. Perhaps a guy like Moen can be turned into a 4th line center better than White.
Plekanec and Markov are not the core anymore. They are the present, not the future. Price, Subban, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Pacioretty, Eller: that's the core playing in the lineup right now. The rest are expendable to me.
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Post by GNick99 on Jan 25, 2014 15:55:09 GMT -5
Management has to be cold blooded about it and ask - where have the veteran players taken this team? Unfortuntely most of the guys I want gone are hardly desirable but at least some are UFA - Bouillion, Murray, Gionta. I think Markov should be dealt. You may be right about Plekanec. He's still relatively young at 31 but by the time this team gets anywhere he could be in his mid thirties & on the downside. He would be a valuable piece to a true contender. I wouldn't have a sell-off. It's not that good of a draft and you would be telling your fans the season is over. Difference drafting between 10th and 20th is not going to be major this year. Not worth having a crappy year over certainly. Definately wouldn't trade Plekanec! I see it as bad business management. He is your best player on many nights, how would you replace him? Keep Pleks another year then look at dealing him? He's signed long term the value will still be there. Gal should be maturing by then. The guy I would trade nobody will agree with so I am not going to go there. I would look at a coaching change first. I am a bias on Therrein as he was not my wish as coach from the start. I would look at bringing back Jacques Lemaire? He was 690 last week and expressed an interest to finish his career as a Hab. He had tremendous playoff success in 1984 taking over a so-so team late in the season. He is 68, how much does he have left? Always that risk. But for this season alone, decent if not strong chance he could come back here and have short term success. Resulting in a lenghtly playoff run.
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Post by The Habitual Fan on Jan 25, 2014 16:41:37 GMT -5
I agree that the core of this team is solid and probably the most talented core of young players they have had in a long time. I also understand what MB was trying to do with signing of Briere and Murray which was to have a short time solution to give Tinordi and Galy time to develop without being under the daily pressure. The thing is also that this team had played well earlier in the season (not just Price)and they are holding a playoff spot. They are not Buffalo and the season is not lost yet but obviously something has to change. My concern of late has been Bourque, Diaz, Briere,Emelin, have all at times been a healthy scratch. These are not raw rookies or over the hill guys long past their prime but guys that have all been in the league and proven players. If they are being sat because they cannot play the system and the youth are getting less than 10 minutes because they are making mistakes in the system then change the system to get the most out of these guys. Despite the postings here Rene Bourque is not a bad player, he is over 6ft and over 200 lbs and scored most of his goals going hard to the net but now playing on the outside and the type of player the team needs. Diaz is named to his country's national team but can't play as a third pairing, Briere is a center playing wing at reduced minutes, Emelin was one of the teams most consistant players and now a mess. Eller has more natural talent then most but is invisible most nights,,and the list goes on and on. I am not an MT basher at all but it is time for MB to look at the players he has and decide if they can play the system in place or do they need to change the game plan to suit the talent.
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Post by Boston_Habs on Jan 25, 2014 17:44:07 GMT -5
Plekanec and Markov are not the core anymore. They are the present, not the future. Price, Subban, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Pacioretty, Eller: that's the core playing in the lineup right now. The rest are expendable to me. The present is the future. I'm not interested in unloading good vets in exchange for picks and prospects, just so Bergevin can try and sell us on a 3-year plan. The idea is to be good now AND in the future. I think Pleks and Markov are still core players. You need to build around young players and key veterans if you want to be competitive on a consistent basis. Pleks in particular is a real stabilizing player and is still probably the best all around forward on the team. Markov will be UFA but I still think we should try and sign him to a 2-3 year deal. You need to manage his minutes, but he's still a top 4 guy IMO. To me the guys to unload are Gorges, Briere, Bourque, Gionta (UFA), and Desharnais. Remember you can take back salary in a trade under the new CBA. It's not the preferred route but if we had to eat $1 million of Bourque's deal to unload him or DD..... you have to consider it if the overall team improves.
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Post by Disp on Jan 25, 2014 17:45:08 GMT -5
Sell at the deadline, regardless of our position. Maximize return. Preferably for near ready blue chippers.
Just imagine if we'd gotten a Rivet like return for Souray and Komi? I don't think we'd be having this discussion right now.
You can say that it doesn't always work out, but that is on MB to make it happen. Not going to win the cup anyways. Cup or bust, but be smart about it:).
The fans and players will get over the whole "not adding at the deadline thing".
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Post by blny on Jan 25, 2014 17:46:40 GMT -5
Plekanec and Markov are not the core anymore. They are the present, not the future. Price, Subban, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Pacioretty, Eller: that's the core playing in the lineup right now. The rest are expendable to me. The present is the future. I'm not interested in unloading good vets in exchange for picks and prospects, just so Bergevin can try and sell us on a 3-year plan. The idea is to be good now AND in the future. I think Pleks and Markov are still core players. You need to build around young players and key veterans if you want to be competitive on a consistent basis. Pleks in particular is a real stabilizing player and is still probably the best all around forward on the team. Markov will be UFA but I still think we should try and sign him to a 2-3 year deal. You need to manage his minutes, but he's still a top 4 guy IMO. To me the guys to unload are Gorges, Briere, Bourque, Gionta (UFA), and Desharnais. Remember you can take back salary in a trade under the new CBA. It's not the preferred route but if we had to eat $1 million of Bourque's deal to unload him or DD..... you have to consider it if the overall team improves. Yes, and I'd do that. Like I said though, I'm not parting with Plekanec for a pick. I'm talking about a good old fashion hockey deal.
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