|
Post by seventeen on Jul 31, 2014 15:15:49 GMT -5
You're not going to get and keep PK for a number starting with 7. It may have to start with 9 and you may be right, it could be a sign and trade situation, or it could be sign and let's see how it plays out first. Maybe he'll be worth that 9 number. I really, really doubt that MB is offering anything like "7plus" for a multiyear. I really don't see MB balking at 8plus for a 8 year one, but I doubt he is going to bend over for a 9 plus for 5 years. Look at it logically at the "if-then". IF PK is asking 8.5 in arbitration to reach FA, THEN bet the house he is asking for a lot more for 8 years. My guess, north of 10. It would be interesting to know what number PK is 'wishing' for. And for what Bergevin is 'wishing' for. PK is going to make a ton off of endorsements, so I don't really think the contract figure is an overriding factor, providing it meets the respect threshhold, whatever that figure is. What number will give PK the feeling he is appreciated? I'm also not convinced Berg and MT believe PK is the real deal. He himself has immense self confidence, but I don't have the feeling it's matched by the Habs braintrust. Do you believe he's the real deal? Do you (the Royal You) believe PK can be the Moses to lead us to the 25th Cup? I'm not sure. Some days I think yes, and other days, I'm just not sure.
|
|
|
Post by UberCranky on Jul 31, 2014 15:22:50 GMT -5
I really, really doubt that MB is offering anything like "7plus" for a multiyear. I really don't see MB balking at 8plus for a 8 year one, but I doubt he is going to bend over for a 9 plus for 5 years. Look at it logically at the "if-then". IF PK is asking 8.5 in arbitration to reach FA, THEN bet the house he is asking for a lot more for 8 years. My guess, north of 10. It would be interesting to know what number PK is 'wishing' for. And for what Bergevin is 'wishing' for. PK is going to make a ton off of endorsements, so I don't really think the contract figure is an overriding factor, providing it meets the respect threshhold, whatever that figure is. What number will give PK the feeling he is appreciated? I'm also not convinced Berg and MT believe PK is the real deal. He himself has immense self confidence, but I don't have the feeling it's matched by the Habs braintrust. Do you believe he's the real deal? Do you (the Royal You) believe PK can be the Moses to lead us to the 25th Cup? I'm not sure. Some days I think yes, and other days, I'm just not sure. I think PK can be a vital piece for a cup run. A big piece. But far from the only piece. This isn't basketball of baseball when one player can have a dominating effect. It's a 21 player TEAM that grinds out a cup and I have big issues with any one player making so much money there is less to pay to make up a team. PK is worth to be paid very well, but he is NOT Bobby Orr. If PK can't get his head around that, then I would hate it....but I would trade him to make the TEAM better. Can we have some GOOD news for a change? This has not been a good hockey summer......so far.
|
|
|
Post by Skilly on Jul 31, 2014 16:10:51 GMT -5
Comparing Karlsson contract to PK is apples and oranges. Different cap eras. You have to factor in the new cap, and contracts signed during it. Karlsson might be a comparable player, but the contracts aren't imo. I disagree, everyone knew there was going to be labour strife in 2012. In fact Ottawa signed him not knowing what the cap situation was going to be ... And still gave him a huge deal. Almost a 6 million dollar raise, knowing that the owners were fighting to get the cap lowered. Salary and production are the main items that can be used in arbitration, for comparables .... Cap implications and salary structure of teams can not be used. I have to ask though, if Karlsson's contract is apples to Subban's oranges , then why does Friedman think Weber's contract will be brought up?
|
|
|
Post by Skilly on Jul 31, 2014 16:16:44 GMT -5
I really, really doubt that MB is offering anything like "7plus" for a multiyear. I really don't see MB balking at 8plus for a 8 year one, but I doubt he is going to bend over for a 9 plus for 5 years. Look at it logically at the "if-then". IF PK is asking 8.5 in arbitration to reach FA, THEN bet the house he is asking for a lot more for 8 years. My guess, north of 10. It would be interesting to know what number PK is 'wishing' for. And for what Bergevin is 'wishing' for. PK is going to make a ton off of endorsements, so I don't really think the contract figure is an overriding factor, providing it meets the respect threshhold, whatever that figure is. What number will give PK the feeling he is appreciated? I'm also not convinced Berg and MT believe PK is the real deal. He himself has immense self confidence, but I don't have the feeling it's matched by the Habs braintrust. Do you believe he's the real deal? Do you (the Royal You) believe PK can be the Moses to lead us to the 25th Cup? I'm not sure. Some days I think yes, and other days, I'm just not sure. I don't see how we can build a competitive team around him if we have no money to play with ..... It will have to be done through trades I guess
|
|
|
Post by GNick99 on Jul 31, 2014 16:24:10 GMT -5
Bergevin was quick to sign secondary players like Desharnais, Ellar, Elemin, then nickels and dimes Subban
|
|
|
Post by seventeen on Jul 31, 2014 16:44:52 GMT -5
Subban is more important to the team than any of the guys above. Naturally, that makes it a more difficult negotiation, exclusive of the fact it will have the highest CAP implications of any player on the roster.
Of note, a quote from PK today on TSN, when asked about all the angst expressed by Hab fans over his contract, was to re-quote Carey....."Just chill out". It didn't sound like he was planning to bolt anywhere, more fine tuning on the deal and I'd expect it to be a fairly long one.
|
|
|
Post by christrpn on Jul 31, 2014 18:10:55 GMT -5
Habs have elected for the one year no matter the $$, which mean at the end of the contract,he's still a RFA. So he signs a 1yr $6M-$7.5M contract, Habs and Subban spens all next year negotiating an extention worth north of $9.5M for 8, which will be fine because Bourque will be gone and Ièm sure Plekanec will be in his way out. Subban will be a hab, we just have to be patient because e now have a GM who doesnèt have knee jerk reactions and follows public opinion.
|
|
|
Post by Skilly on Jul 31, 2014 19:16:21 GMT -5
I still don't understand that kind of argument. Plekanec and Bourque will be gone, ok. That's 8.3 million dollars freed up. Subban will eat up 9.5 million. Let's say the cap goes up 5 million. Now, you take 1.2 million to give to Subban, and voila you have 3.8 million to replace TWO top six guys, or if you are inclined to believe Bourque won't see the top six, a top six and top nine guy.
So, the plan is then to hope two prospects develop into top six guys, or trade and hope our castaways garner gems ... Cause we effectively remove ourselves from the FA game
The truth is, that we are in deep doggy-do cap trouble the next two years. Sure we are losing the likes of Prust, Moen and Weise. But they will just cover the raises to Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Bournival, Beaulieu and Tinordi. Those three guys will need to be replaced, and as I showed above, PK virtually eats up all the cap increase. Looking two years ahead, if PK gets 9.5 million, we'd have 38 million committed to 7 players. So we'd have approx 40 million (if the cap increases 5 million a year) to sign 16 players.
Ouch
|
|
|
Post by Willie Dog on Jul 31, 2014 19:37:10 GMT -5
I still don't understand that kind of argument. Plekanec and Bourque will be gone, ok. That's 8.3 million dollars freed up. Subban will eat up 9.5 million. Let's say the cap goes up 5 million. Now, you take 1.2 million to give to Subban, and voila you have 3.8 million to replace TWO top six guys, or if you are inclined to believe Bourque won't see the top six, a top six and top nine guy. So, the plan is then to hope two prospects develop into top six guys, or trade and hope our castaways garner gems ... Cause we effectively remove ourselves from the FA game The truth is, that we are in deep doggy-do cap trouble the next two years. Sure we are losing the likes of Prust, Moen and Weise. But they will just cover the raises to Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Bournival, Beaulieu and Tinordi. Those three guys will need to be replaced, and as I showed above, PK virtually eats up all the cap increase. Looking two years ahead, if PK gets 9.5 million, we'd have 38 million committed to 7 players. So we'd have approx 40 million (if the cap increases 5 million a year) to sign 16 players. Ouch Mb must have a plan. Other teams are in the same boat, the hawks have about 66 mill committed to 9 players in 15/16. They must thimk the cap will go way up.
|
|
|
Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Jul 31, 2014 20:16:12 GMT -5
I still don't understand that kind of argument. Plekanec and Bourque will be gone, ok. That's 8.3 million dollars freed up. Subban will eat up 9.5 million. Let's say the cap goes up 5 million. Now, you take 1.2 million to give to Subban, and voila you have 3.8 million to replace TWO top six guys, or if you are inclined to believe Bourque won't see the top six, a top six and top nine guy. So, the plan is then to hope two prospects develop into top six guys, or trade and hope our castaways garner gems ... Cause we effectively remove ourselves from the FA game The truth is, that we are in deep doggy-do cap trouble the next two years. Sure we are losing the likes of Prust, Moen and Weise. But they will just cover the raises to Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Bournival, Beaulieu and Tinordi. Those three guys will need to be replaced, and as I showed above, PK virtually eats up all the cap increase. Looking two years ahead, if PK gets 9.5 million, we'd have 38 million committed to 7 players. So we'd have approx 40 million (if the cap increases 5 million a year) to sign 16 players. Ouch Mb must have a plan. Other teams are in the same boat, the hawks have about 66 mill committed to 9 players in 15/16. They must thimk the cap will go way up. Rocket Richard played for one team his entire career. Ditto Elmer Lach and Toe Blake, Jean Beliveau and Pocket Rocket. Those days are gone. If we can get PK's best years at bargain prices, take it. When he becomes a free agent bid for his services at the fair market price. Want to keep PK but Gordie Howe, , Wayne Gretzky, Bobby Orr, Phil Esposito, Guy Lafleur, all spent their last and least productive years with other teams. That's the way it is today.
|
|
|
Post by Polarice on Jul 31, 2014 21:38:36 GMT -5
The Score is saying that a deal is just about done....Montreal has made an 8 year offer to him. Wait and see I guess.
|
|
|
Post by jkr on Jul 31, 2014 21:42:33 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by franko on Jul 31, 2014 22:00:45 GMT -5
nothing that isn't expected, really. long term, big bucks, lotsa drama . . . just to keep the peons interested.
|
|
|
Post by NWTHabsFan on Jul 31, 2014 22:10:28 GMT -5
Getting tight though. Hearing is at 9:00 am tomorrow.
Git er done!
|
|
|
Post by Willie Dog on Jul 31, 2014 22:17:00 GMT -5
Who's more connected Chris Johnston or Ken Campbell?
I just want a deal done. Tired of listening to the Toronto media drone on about PK wanting to play in Toronto.
|
|
|
Post by jkr on Jul 31, 2014 22:46:16 GMT -5
Who's more connected Chris Johnston or Ken Campbell? I just want a deal done. Tired of listening to the Toronto media drone on about PK wanting to play in Toronto. Same here. Never mind that James played in his hometown first, went to Miami to win championships & then came back. There isn't much of a parallel. If Subban signs an arbitration deal then the crap is going to go on and on for another year at least.
|
|
|
Post by jkr on Jul 31, 2014 23:05:52 GMT -5
Getting tight though. Hearing is at 9:00 am tomorrow. Git er done! Midnight now & nothing but rumors. This approach just baffles me. The season ended 2 months ago. They signed Malhotra, traded for Parenteau; but yet here we are headed to arbitration with the team's best player. And they will have to go at it again next year. He can then get his QO and head straight to UFA. Way to go. Way to effin go. I know we have to take the talking heads with a grain of salt but not one of them I have seen understands this approach. They're as puzzled as I am.
|
|
|
Post by UberCranky on Jul 31, 2014 23:27:47 GMT -5
I heard PK on tv, he said it's all business....chill out.
Basically......show me the MONEY........
Makes me appreciatte Beliveau, the Richards, etc, even more now.
|
|
|
Post by seventeen on Aug 1, 2014 1:15:45 GMT -5
Makes me appreciatte Beliveau, the Richards, etc, even more now. Yes, those guys never had the kind of money thrown out today, but tell me if they weren't happy with their lives. That's the part that always gets me. How much is enough?
|
|
|
Post by UberCranky on Aug 1, 2014 1:35:05 GMT -5
Makes me appreciatte Beliveau, the Richards, etc, even more now. Yes, those guys never had the kind of money thrown out today, but tell me if they weren't happy with their lives. That's the part that always gets me. How much is enough? I don't get it either. There is no difference betwen making 7 million or 8 million at that level other then boastfullness and greed. One can buy the finest cars and live in a mansion at either number. Nor does the argument about retirement. If one doesn't know how to control ones money, no amount is enough. I'm concerned verging on souring on PK big time. Yes, he has the right to get as much as he can regardless of what it does to the TEAMs ability to be competitive....and I have the right to resent it. I want to be so wrong on this.....but.....
|
|
|
Post by GNick99 on Aug 1, 2014 4:46:11 GMT -5
I predict long term contract signed just before arbitration meeting. Starting at 7 million, going up each year reaching 10 million in year 8.
|
|
|
Post by jkr on Aug 1, 2014 5:13:11 GMT -5
I predict long term contract signed just before arbitration meeting. Starting at 7 million, going up each year reaching 10 million in year 8. I'm too pessimistic to believe that. He'll take his one year award & still have all the cards next year. And I think this lowers any trade value he has. Would you give up significant assets for a player in this situation - knowing that he could be gone in a year or two?
|
|
|
Post by BadCompany on Aug 1, 2014 7:03:11 GMT -5
I predict long term contract signed just before arbitration meeting. Starting at 7 million, going up each year reaching 10 million in year 8. I'm too pessimistic to believe that. He'll take his one year award & still have all the cards next year. And I think this lowers any trade value he has. Would you give up significant assets for a player in this situation - knowing that he could be gone in a year or two? I don't think he'll be gone in a year or two, but the more I think about the more I think he's the roadblock in all this, and not Bergevin. I know I seem like a Bergevin fan-boy at times, but I can't think of any reason why Subban would sign a long term deal UNLESS it was an absolute home-run. I don't think there was any incentive for him to sign a long term deal two years ago either, unless it was a home-run. People will say "security" but does he really need it? Looking at his hockeydb stats and it appears that he has NEVER been injured. At least not significantly. Heck, for all the vitriol and disgust he seems to inspire around the league, for all the guys gunning for him, how often does he even get hit? So if you're looking at it from Subban's point of view the "worst" case scenario is that you're are forced to take the paltry $8 million or so the arbitrator is going to give you in the next couple of days, and then go through this whole process again next year. At which time, if no home-run deal is on your plate, you will be "forced" again to take another paltry deal, probably in the $8.5, maybe $9 million range. Boo-hoo. And then you'll REALLY hold the hammer, with UFA looming and a cap that will have continued to have gone up. And with perhaps expansion on the horizon, meaning even more dollars available. Two years from now it would not be inconceivable for Subban to be worth $12 million or more. So to me anyways, his plan (or Meahan's if you want an Agent Villain) is to eke out a living on $8 million or so for the next couple of years, and then really cash in two years from now. Not really a bad plan when you think about it. On the positive side, there is still time to get a deal done, and even if a deal isn't done Subban is all but guaranteed to be a Hab for the next two years, and we still have a more than better shot at resigning him to the mega-deal two years from now. I firmly believe that Subban will be here for a really long time, just maybe not at the dollars we think he should be.
|
|
|
Post by jkr on Aug 1, 2014 7:33:44 GMT -5
I'm too pessimistic to believe that. He'll take his one year award & still have all the cards next year. And I think this lowers any trade value he has. Would you give up significant assets for a player in this situation - knowing that he could be gone in a year or two? I don't think he'll be gone in a year or two, but the more I think about the more I think he's the roadblock in all this, and not Bergevin. You could be right. Two years ago he held out for 6 games in a 48 game season, the equivalent of 10 games in a full season. That's significant & it shows his resolve. What bothers me is all this talk coming from him about how much he loves MTL and playing for the Habs. If you're right than those comments are total BS.
|
|
|
Post by franko on Aug 1, 2014 7:38:52 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Gogie on Aug 1, 2014 8:15:03 GMT -5
"More" is partly correct. At this level of compensation in any any endeavour (sports or otherwise) money is just how you keep score. It's not that anyone needs more money, they just want to keep ahead of the Joneses. If I get paid more than you I'm better then you so I "win".
|
|
|
Post by The Habitual Fan on Aug 1, 2014 8:50:35 GMT -5
I'm too pessimistic to believe that. He'll take his one year award & still have all the cards next year. And I think this lowers any trade value he has. Would you give up significant assets for a player in this situation - knowing that he could be gone in a year or two? I don't think he'll be gone in a year or two, but the more I think about the more I think he's the roadblock in all this, and not Bergevin. I know I seem like a Bergevin fan-boy at times, but I can't think of any reason why Subban would sign a long term deal UNLESS it was an absolute home-run. I don't think there was any incentive for him to sign a long term deal two years ago either, unless it was a home-run. People will say "security" but does he really need it? Looking at his hockeydb stats and it appears that he has NEVER been injured. At least not significantly. Heck, for all the vitriol and disgust he seems to inspire around the league, for all the guys gunning for him, how often does he even get hit? So if you're looking at it from Subban's point of view the "worst" case scenario is that you're are forced to take the paltry $8 million or so the arbitrator is going to give you in the next couple of days, and then go through this whole process again next year. At which time, if no home-run deal is on your plate, you will be "forced" again to take another paltry deal, probably in the $8.5, maybe $9 million range. Boo-hoo. And then you'll REALLY hold the hammer, with UFA looming and a cap that will have continued to have gone up. And with perhaps expansion on the horizon, meaning even more dollars available. Two years from now it would not be inconceivable for Subban to be worth $12 million or more. So to me anyways, his plan (or Meahan's if you want an Agent Villain) is to eke out a living on $8 million or so for the next couple of years, and then really cash in two years from now. Not really a bad plan when you think about it. On the positive side, there is still time to get a deal done, and even if a deal isn't done Subban is all but guaranteed to be a Hab for the next two years, and we still have a more than better shot at resigning him to the mega-deal two years from now. I firmly believe that Subban will be here for a really long time, just maybe not at the dollars we think he should be. I agree totally and as I have said before his best interest lies in wanting a short term deal where he is a UFA in his prime with a higher cap, when he can sign to anywhere he wants (NY or LA) for the lifestyle or (FLA, TOR) where he could sign for max dollars and term. He may still choose to be a Hab but he would hold al the cards at that time. As for saying all the right things about Montreal have you ever seen any player not say the same about where he is committed for the next two years?
|
|
|
Post by Boston_Habs on Aug 1, 2014 9:04:14 GMT -5
That's a pretty cynical view, IMO. If that we're the case then no star players would ever sign long term deals in their arbitration years and they would all hit UFA at age 27 . Obviously that's not the case and there is plenty of precedent for guys signing deals before they hit UFA, with Doughty and Karlsson being two good examples.
No, I still think Berg made poor use of his leverage 2 years ago. His problem he has no leverage now. PK has it all and he's using it.
|
|
|
Post by jkr on Aug 1, 2014 10:11:13 GMT -5
That's a pretty cynical view, IMO. If that we're the case then no star players would ever sign long term deals in their arbitration years and they would all hit UFA at age 27 . Obviously that's not the case and there is plenty of precedent for guys signing deals before they hit UFA, with Doughty and Karlsson being two good examples. No, I still think Berg made poor use of his leverage 2 years ago. His problem he has no leverage now. PK has it all and he's using it. Well I know I'm feeling pretty cynical right now about both sides. Subban didn't want to negotiate during the season because he said it was a distraction yet now he responds to questions by saying his agent is doing the dealing. Which one is it? If your agent is doing the talking how is it a distraction? It just seems as if things were orchestrated to get to this point. As for Bergevin, well now I finally see the reasons for your consistent opposition to the bridge deal. He wasn't a big picture GM & that's what all GMs should be. He went hard for the short term deal. Couldn't he or any of the geniuses he hired have foreseen this scenario? It was only 2 years into the future. He's now on the verge of losing the best talent this team has had in years as he comes into his prime - and maybe for nothing.
|
|
|
Post by seventeen on Aug 1, 2014 10:27:28 GMT -5
Oh I don't think he'd be lost for nothing. The worst case scenario is the arbitrator is forced to make a decision, which will be for at least one year, by which time PK is still an RFA, and much of Berg's time will be spent finding a trade partner. If it's going to be this difficult to sign someone, I'd rather someone else spent all their time doing it. A year is plenty of time to move him along and get a decent return.
|
|