Prospects at the WJC - Update

[NWTHabsFan]

A few Habs lads in action over the last two days. Jaroslav Halak in net as Slovakia beat Switzerland for 7th place in the relegation round. A solid finish for Halak. Belarus lost to Germany 4-3 in the 9th/10th place game; however, our man Andrei Kostitsyn did not play in a game that meant nothing other than pride as both teams were already destined for Division 1 next season. AK is likely meeting Hamilton as they gear up for a road trip to St John's this week.

I just watched Alexei Emelin is Russia's 7-2 thrashing of the States in the semi last night. Emelin is a classic defensive defenseman, can skate well, takes his man constantly, stays back and doesn't gamble on the pinch, does real good on the man to man coverage down low, and had one superb open ice hit against Kevin Porter that started a Russian rush back the other way that led to a key goal for Russia. No real offensive flair at all, but plays a simple defensive style. He took a bad stick to the chops from Patrick O'Sullivan late in the third that drew blood, but he was back on his next shift on the PP...tough kid.

[NWTHabsFan]

This is a long one, so I broke it into two separate posts (I didn't expect this to be this long when I started it).

I am normally a huge fan of the WJC as a rule, but with no NHL hockey this season, this has been my Stanley Cup Finals for this season. 12 games watched going into the Gold Medal Game and an additional two Canadian exhibition games the week before the tourney...so that is a lot of beer consumed!! I actually have seen every team play once, and have seen the Canadians and US play 5 times each, so have some idea about the players in this year’s tourney.

I spent some time watching players that were either undrafted or are eligible for the 2005 draft. That is 115 players on the 10 teams, but I quickly focussed on a few that looked like they were prospect or drafting worthy. This is just one man’s opinion based on these televised games, so take it with a grain of salt. It really was my way of justifying all those lovely beers consumed!!

Onto the teams and players:

USA

TJ Hensick F (05 draft eligible) - A quick player with good puck skills, but is a really small player and didn’t seem to have a big impact for someone who was CSS’ 50th ranked NA skater last season but who opted out of the draft. Is expected to be a second rounder, but I sure wouldn’t want to see a Habs’ 2nd round pick going this way.

Nate Hagemo D (05 draft eligible) - Pretty invisible. He is likely a second day draft guy, and I don’t see him filling any Habs’ voids.

Brain Lee D (05 draft eligible) - A big kid at 6'2 190lbs and just 17 years old, but he still plays in high school in Minnesota so he hardly got any ice time in the 5 games I watched. He must have something though, as he was selected over the highly touted and almost consensus #2 2005 draft pick Jack Johnson. Those that have seen him consider him to be a great skater and really poised. He does play like a big body out there in the few shifts I saw. He in intriguing as some project him to go round about when the Habs might draft (#15-20) - others see him as a 2nd rounder. Interesting to see how the Habbie scouts like him compared to Parent, Bourdon and Lashoff, three CHL Dmen all expected to be around the same spots.

Jeff Likens D (undrafted) - There is a good reason for this. He was bad.

Czech Republic

Vladislav Koutsky G (undrafted) - I was searching for a Czech player to write up and wasn’t all that taken with Gulasi, their only 05 eligible player when along came a surprise start for their #2 goalie. He is unorthodox and a flopper for sure, but boy was he huge against the Americans. Good reflexes and plays a la Hacek, so there must be something in that town’s water as they come from the same place. Give him a goalie coach to control some of that flopping...and may be worth a late rounder.

Russia

Anton Belov D (05 draft eligible) - He was 96th ranked Euro Skater last season but opted out of the draft. At 6'3" 194lbs and an “86" born, he can still play one more WJC for Russia. He may be their offensive go-to guy next year as his big weapon is his shot from the point (he didn’t show this off much at all this WJC). He is a good skater for a tall man, but really didn’t show too much of a physical game. He is expected to go somewhere in the 3rd round area, so might be worth a look as a skilled defender with decent size.

Dmitry Megalinsky D (undrafted) - At 6'2" and 212lbs, this 85 born seemed Russia’s most physical blueliner. He doesn’t have quick acceleration or top speed, but holds his own once he gets moving. His game is all about good checks, and he showed some of that in the games I saw. He looked very solid in the Russia-CHL challenge as well. A possible 3-5th rounder, so a possibility if looking for a big physical defensive defender. Interesting note is that he was undrafted last year, so could have been had for a 9th round pick last year.

Sergei Shirokov F (undrafted) - Another 86 born who likely will be a big part on next year’s team. Not sure if he wasn’t drafted or opted out (most on HF feel he opted out for some unknown reason). He really was alive in both the Russia-CHL challenge and this WJC, and ended up as one of the top three Russian point getters behind AO and Malkin. He is very skilled and has a great shot, but is really tiny at 5"9" 165lbs. He is also a showboat, with several crowd taunts and dives. The TSN guys called him a Darcy Tucker with skill, and I agree. He is dynamic, and you can coach the showboating out of a game. A possible 2-3rd rounder, but I think his stock is rising after a good WJC and expect someone to pounce on him in the 2nd round.

Canada

Danny Syvret D (undrafted) - Canada only has one guy who is even eligible for the 05 draft, and the London Knights’ captain is that man. He seems small compared to all his D corps, but he actually clocks in at 6'0" and 205lbs. He is a really good skater and is good out there with the puck, especially with his first pass and on the PP. He was also OHL player of the week earlier this season. So when you combine a solid showing at the WJC on a stacked team, he will not be passed up for the third straight draft.

Switzerland

Victor Stancescu F (undrafted) - The 85 born Swiss had two profile forward team-mates in this tourney who have already been drafted, Wick and Romy. I thought that the Romanian born Stancescu was their equal, and also brought a decent physical side to his game. He is 5'11" 192 lbs and plays big, is skilled, has a quick and hard shot, and goes into traffic well. If he is around in the 4th or 5th round...pick him please. I like this kid

[NWTHabsFan]

Belarus

Siarhei Kastsitsyn/Sergei Kostitsyn F (05 draft eligible) - Yes, Andrei’s younger brother was a key part of this Belarus team this year. He is 5'11" and 179lbs, and an 87 born, so should have two more WJC to look forward to. He is quick, plays in traffic and along the boards, and has an intense game. Not as strong as his big bro, but is two years younger so will likely grow. A likely 2-3rd rounder whose last name and decent WJC performance could see him go in the 2nd round.

Slovakia

Marek Zagrapan F (05 draft eligible) - An expected top 10 pick next draft, and this 6'1" 185 pounder who earns his keep in Chicoutimi in the Q showed some nice skill out there. He has great skills, a decent size, and a very good skater. A decent WJC for him, to complement his 42 points in 30 games in the Q so far this season. Likely long gone when the Habs pick.

Stanislav Lascek F (undrafted) - Was he looked over last draft or opted out...another question mark. Like countryman Zagrapan, he also plays for Chicoutimi. I really like this kid, and feel he was likely overshadowed by Zagrapan and Ruziska who were the “names” on this team. He is 6'0" 191lbs, so has decent size for an 86 born to go along with nice puck skills, shifty moves, good passing and a decent shot. He is projected to be a possible 3-4th rounder. I would scoop this kid in the 4th and would give him a real serious look in the 3rd, I like him.

Germany

Moritz Muller D (undrafted) - Had to pick someone from this uninspiring team, but Muller was the rare one that didn’t quit against Canada. He is not huge at 6'1" 190lbs for an 86 born, but plays a decent defensive game. A second day guy that someone will likely take as a late rounder. There are a bunch of other guys out there like him IMO.

Sweden

Niklas Bergfors F (05 draft eligible) - I watched him as he is projected to go around that time that the Habs might be picking (who knows after all). He is a 5'11" 192lbs 17 year old who skates really well, is good on the puck, and who has decent size and uses it. He is also a hard worker on every shift, something that scouts like to see. On a fairly uninspiring Swedish offensive corps, I would expect he will be a key part of their next two WJC teams for which he will be eligible. I would expect the Habs are looking at him among their forward options with their first round pick.

Per Savilhati-Nagander D (undrafted) - The guy with the longest last name in the tourney! At 6'4" 214lbs, this 19 year old is a big guy and plays strong and physical. Against the Americans, Phil Kessel blew by him, but he blew by all the top Swedish defenders in that game. Has SEL experience as an 19 year old and can play the PP, so worth the look as an over-ager in the late rounds if looking for a big, physical defender.

Ola Svanberg D (undrafted) - This 5'11" 190lb 19 year old was the 34th ranked Euro skater back in ‘03, but was passed up in two drafts. His small size is likely why, although he has some nice skills. He skates well, has good puck control and makes a good pass, plays on the PP, and also has a little SEL experience this season. Ended up as Sweden's #7 defenseman as the tourney wore on.

Finland

Teemu Laakso D (05 draft eligible) - This 6'0" 187lb 17 year old is also projected to go around the time the Habs are up on the podium. Lots of hype about him before the tourney as one of Finland three possible first rounders. He is very skilled with the puck, has a good quick wrister, was Finland’s PP QB, but is still missing a few things for me. He isn’t big and doesn’t play very big out there, tending to use positioning and stick work to defend. He also doesn’t have big breakout speed for a smaller defender, something I like to see in an undersized Dman. Just isn’t that Habs’ first rounder for me yet based on the two games that I saw him play (he was injured in the other).

Risto Korhonen D (05 draft eligible) - This 6'3" 201lb 17 year old was often paired with Laakso and is expected to go late 1st round. He is a big guy, who loves to play physical, hits folks in front of and behind the net, moves the puck well, and also sees some PP time with his partner Laakso. There may be better BPA’s around when the Habs pick, but I liked this guy.

Tuuka Rask G (05 draft eligible) - He is currently the top ranked Euro goalie for the 05 draft and came in with big expectations after dominating the 4 Nations Tourney against top European competition. I only saw him play half a game (2nd half of Canada game in round robin), as the coach started undrafted Hallikainen against Canada in the exhibition and in the round robin. He came in relief in that second game. He also was yanked in the Sweden game, that Finland eventually came back to win with 4 unanswered goals in the 3rd. He seems to be fine positionally and has decent reflexes, but didn’t get the ice time that I would have expected for a possible first rounder. Combine that with my real desire that the Habs stay away from a goalie in the first round (heck, on the first draft day as well please), means that I hope the Habs pass.

[BadCompany]

Good job NWT (I feel like I should be saying "yo" after that - like "good job NWT, yo" ).

Just a thought on Kostitsyin The Younger. While drafting some kid based on their older brother's accomplishments can backfire spectacularily (cough hossa cough) it nonetheless holds a strange fascination over me. I'm a still one of the few Hab fans who think Mikko Koivu would have been a good pick. But I digress. Sergei, it seems, is always right up there with his younger brother in point totals, whenever they play together. In fact, he's beaten Andrei on several occassions. While that in and of itself is meaningless, it does speak somewhat to his talent level. He is big enough, and as you say, can get stronger. With no way of knowing how the next draft will be conducted, or where Montreal will be picking, I wonder if they might take him higher than the 2nd-3rd round some think he should be going. Like late first round, kind of thing.

If nothing else, Andrei should be able to help Sergie's adjustment to North America...

[blaise]

Virtually all of the talented players in the WJC have been drafted already. I liked Shirokov and Megalinsky of Russia and Brian Lee of the US (in his cameo appearances). Thumbs down on Hensick, Likens, and Hagemo of the US. Too bad Phil Kessel of the US wouldn't be eligible until 2006. Among the undrafted players, only Sidney Crosby is superior.

[NWTHabsFan]

Blaise said:

Virtually all of the talented players in the WJC have been drafted already. I liked Shirokov and Megalinsky of Russia and Brian Lee of the US (in his cameo appearances). Thumbs down on Hensick, Likens, and Hagemo of the US. Too bad Phil Kessel of the US wouldn't be eligible until 2006. Among the undrafted players, only Sidney Crosby is superior.

I found the US defence outside of Suter to be really horrible. Their depth chart at this age level is nowhere as deep as I first imagined.

As for the 2006 draft class, this tourney did actually feature the early projected Top 3 guys (at this point anyway): Michael Frolik of the Czech Republic, Phil Kessel of the USA, and Jesse Joensuu of Finland.

Frolik at age 16, was the youngest in the tourney and looked good in the games that I watched. He is really gifted and had a superb goal where he blew around a Dman three years his senior and crashed the net to score. Just wait 'til he fills out and has to start shaving. A number of observers feel he has a bigger upside than Kessel...all I can say is WOW.

17 year old Kessel was the most dynamic of the three in this tourney, and his skating and puck skills are fun to watch. On a US team that seemed to mentally check out during and after the Belarus game, this kid still showed he had game. Where were all the 19 year olds then?

Joensuu is a different style of player and looks to be a prototypical power forward. As a 17 year old (just turned last October), he was playing hard on the board and shows good size already to go along with real nice puck skills. He just didn't "break out" in this tourney as some might have expected. The Finnish development approach is becoming very similar to Canada these days, with a nice mix of physical play and good hockey skills. He has great size at 6'4" 194lbs and is the youngest player in Finland's top league, the sm-liiga.

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

I haven't seen as many games as NWT or added as thorough an analysis as he did (Great job NWT), but these guys have impressed me.

USA
Fritsche (sure thing), Kessel (Potential), Montoya (poise & positioning)
Russia
Ovetchkin (Certain STARDOM), Malkin (can't miss)
Canada
Crosby + whole team (selfless teamwork)

I know that none of these observations are stretches or surprises, but these are the guys who really stood out. Crosby will be the best of all followed by Ovetchkin (a man among boys).

Canada Russia will be a contest of two way teamwork vs. sudden skilled offensive bursts.
Teamwork will win in a close contest until the third when Russia opens it up and Canada counters with goals on counter punching opportunities.

Final
Canada 6, Russia 3

[franko]

Thanks, NWT, for allowing me not to engage my brain -- great stuff.

As to the game tonight, I fear a repeat of New Year's Eve 1975: Canada vastly outshooting Russia but Russia making the most of thier shots -- especially since Glass hasn't been tested and is bound to be a little rusty.

[Deleted]

Blaise said:

Anyone notice how Patrice Bergeron is tearing up the WJC? I wonder which line he'd center if he were a Hab. I wouldn't mind seeing him in the bleu-blanc-rouge playing against the Bruins or Leafs. And to think he's eligible to play in an under-20 tournament!

Don't worry. Knowing Bruins management, they'll end up screwing something up by letting their good players walk.

[blaise]

I wasn't that impressed by Montoya. He handles the puck well and stickchecks it away from forwards but I don't think he has a lightning glove. He gave up several soft goals. I like Fritsche for his all-around play. IMO Stafford is more dangerous offensively and Kessel has more potential. NWT thinks Frolik has still more upside but I'm not sure about that, and Kessel is a big kid.

[NWTHabsFan]

There are a couple of players who played in the recent WJC Division 1 championships (to see what two countries advance to play with the big boys next year in Vancouver) that are expected to be first day picks. I have not seen these guys play but just some more names to note for the next draft that we all hope will be held sometime in 2005.

Anze Kopitar F Slovenia (Sodertalje Jrs - Sweden) - This is a big 17 year old from Slovenia at 6'4" 198lbs already!! He absolutely tore up the scoreboard at this year's Division 1 U20 event. His stats were 5gp 10g 3a 13pts +8 to lead the tourney is scoring and he was third in +/-. By comparison, Martins Karsums from Latvia was second is scoring with 10pts in 5 games and he is a year older and was drafted in the 2nd round in 2004 by Boston 64th overall. He has had some success in the past, as he had 2pts in 5gp as a 16 year old at the 2004 WJC Division 1 and 8pts in 5 games at the 2004 U18 Division 1. Folks have him on their radar screen and he is likely this year's big wildcard, much like Blake Wheeler was last year. Huge numbers against lesser opponents...but teams are taking notice. I don't think he will last past the second round and some team might go for him with their first round pick.

Oskars Bartulis D Latvia (Moncton Wildcats - QMJHL) - He plays alongside countryman Karsums in Moncton, so has more visibility than Kopitar. He led all defencemen is scoring at this year's Division 1 with 5gp 1g 6a 7pts +13. His plus minus led all players in the tourney. He is a 6'2" 185lb 17 year old who, like Kopitar, is an 87 born and can play in two more of these tourneys. He is expected to go by the end of the second round and he plays in the CHL, so he is less of a wildcard.

[Bob]

Emelin scores for Russia. At least it was a Hab's prospect

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

NWTHabsFan said:

AK and Belarus get the upset of the tourney...if not the decade!! He gets a goal and two assists, and player of game as Belarus beats the US 5-3. If I hadn't seen it for myself...

I stick by my previous predictions that Kostitsyn will be the most exciting Habs forward since Guy Lafleur and that his career will eclipse those of a number of forwards chosen ahead of him in the 2003 draft.

Nice to see that going to the Dogs under Jarvis' tutelage is only paying dividends.

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

M. said:

I stick by my previous predictions that Kostitsyn will be the most exciting Habs forward since Guy Lafleur and that his career will eclipse those of a number of forwards chosen ahead of him in the 2003 draft.

Nice to see that going to the Dogs under Jarvis' tutelage is only paying dividends.

I stick by my previous prediction than Kostitsyn will be the most exciting Habs forward since Corey Locke and that his career will eclipse those of a number of forwards chosen ahead of him in the 2003 draft.

[NWTHabsFan]

Habs_fan_in_LA said:

I stick by my previous prediction than Kostitsyn will be the most exciting Habs forward since Corey Locke...

Kosty has a full day on Corey as a part of this proud organization...but I always smile over your shameless plugs of one of your favourite prospects.

Kostitsyn has grown so much in three short months, so it is exciting to think of his ultimate upside could be. As for Corey, he continues to prove critics wrong who always want to write him off based on his size and speed. You just can't teach hockey sense, as Corey continues to prove. Two more goals last night, near the top of the Dogs' scoring leaders, and not too far off the pace of the top AHL rookie leaders.

I really like that 2003 draft class, there is tons of untapped potential in them there draft picks of ours (not to mention all those incredible top end 2003 drafted Canadian kids who all just gathered in North Dakota and put on a 6 game clinic).