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Post by seventeen on Jun 18, 2017 12:46:09 GMT -5
The Chouinard pick hurt. Philly took Simon Gagne 6 picks later. Sigh.
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Post by blny on Jun 18, 2017 14:52:34 GMT -5
... I haven't compared this list to other teams ...
I'd rather see it separated into two - first, how did the guys do, and second, were they traded, waived, etc.? For example, McDonagh isn't a drafting problem, but an asset manageemnt one and Chouinard never amounted to anything but we did get a 2nd rounder out of him. That would be part a. Second is to review how many elite players were missed in the subsequent 3-5 picks. Given where Montreal has largely picked the last 10 years, the odds of hitting the mark drastically reduce. When you factor in how few good players were actually passed on in round one, by Montreal, it's far better than he lets on. Not great perhaps, but not as bad. Yes, they could have had Giroux. Yes, they could have had Carter or Parise (my choice) in 03. |
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Post by The Habitual Fan on Jun 19, 2017 7:34:58 GMT -5
Draft picks of 18 year old players is hit and miss which is why in 2010 Jared Tinordi ended up being a bust and Brendan Gallagher was picked in the 5th round and is a top 6 player.
In this years draft the Rangers do not have a pick until the 4th round and the Islanders are apparently giving their 1st pick to Vegas to avoid losing a forward to expansion. IMO this is much worse asset management then picking a kid that your scouts think have potential and not working out.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jun 19, 2017 8:00:17 GMT -5
Draft picks of 18 year old players is hit and miss which is why in 2010 Jared Tinordi ended up being a bust and Brendan Gallagher was picked in the 5th round and is a top 6 player. In this years draft the Rangers do not have a pick until the 4th round and the Islanders are apparently giving their 1st pick to Vegas to avoid losing a forward to expansion. IMO this is much worse asset management then picking a kid that your scouts think have potential and not working out. The Rangers haven't had a 1st round pick since Brady Skjei in 2012 ... they also failed to have 2nd round picks in 2013 and 2016 ... having said that, while the Habs' window for a Cup is gradually closing, the Rangers window just about closed ... Cheers. |
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Post by GNick99 on Jun 19, 2017 14:18:44 GMT -5
I would be open to trading our first round pick. Either for immediate help or extra picks later in draft. Timmins has a bad history in first round and this is a weak draft. Real slim chance that pick amounts to much. I think we get more value with 2 - 2nd round picks, say a Mismash and Lane than a Thomas at 25th. Timmins said he picks in first round than turns draft over to area scouts. We stand better odds at getting good player if we trade.
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Post by Andrew on Jun 19, 2017 15:34:32 GMT -5
My strategy is simple: hold on to the picks, and take best player available. Really good players get picked in the 2nd and 3rd rounds pretty much every year. Sure it's mostly luck at that time, but you have to be in the game to benefit. Too often we've been without second round picks, which is a mistake IMO. Right now we're sitting with two 2nds and two 3rds, but I'm not optimistic that the Habs will hang on to them.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jun 20, 2017 7:27:22 GMT -5
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Post by CentreHice on Jun 20, 2017 8:30:16 GMT -5
What caught my ear is that the knock on Drouin is his defensive game. Worst +/- on the the Bolts last year at -13 in 73 games. Wonder if he'll be as maligned as Galchenyuk, who had our worst +/- last year at -5 in 61 games. Be interesting to see if any habpocrisy raises its head.... Offensively...considering Chucky was yo-yoed around....each finished 3rd in his team's scoring. Drouin: .726 PPG. Chucky: .721 PPG. We need point-production. Sure hope we find a way to keep #27. |
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Post by BadCompany on Jun 20, 2017 8:43:05 GMT -5
What caught my ear is that the knock on Drouin is his defensive game. Worst +/- on the the Bolts last year at -13 in 73 games. Wonder if he'll be as maligned as Galchenyuk, who had our worst +/- last year at -5 in 61 games. Be interesting to see if any habpocrisy raises its head.... Depends on what stats you're using. +/- seems to be quite out of favour these days (and with good reason, in my opinion). Shot suppression and shot generation are all the rage now. In which case Drouin kicks Galchenyuk's butt (at least on the suppression side of things). Drouin vs Galchenyuk - Fight for our love!! EDIT: Can't seem to get the link to work. You can either reload that page yourself, or take my word on these numbers (they standardize everything on a scale of 1-10): ownthepuck.blogspot.ca/2017/05/hero-charts-player-evaluation-tool.htmlDrouin:Ice time: 5 Goals: 3 First Assists: 8 Shot Generation: 5 Shot Suppression: 6 Galchenyuk:Ice time: 6 Goals: 7 First Assists: 6 Shot Generation: 6 Shot Suppression: 2 |
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Post by CentreHice on Jun 20, 2017 9:10:21 GMT -5
Thanks for that, BC. I agree.... stand-alone +/- isn't really a fair assessment, without deeper analysis. A player jumps on the ice and a GA is scored 3 seconds later. i.e. the - may not have been his fault. But the same goes for a +. A player nowhere near a GF gets a notch on the positive side.
Shot suppression, I presume, derives from being the prime checker taking away an opponent's chance on goal. If so, that's a great stat.
Does it also include shot-blocks?
I was just going by the -13 stat trotted out in the interview....and the comparison, in kind, to Chucky.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jun 20, 2017 9:43:58 GMT -5
It wasn't long after the 2001-2001 season that I actually took notice of the plus/minus stats and how deceiving they can be ... I remember thinking Karl Dykhuis to be a pretty good d-man based on his +16, which led the team that year ... however, while he had a pretty good shot from the point, most of his defensive game was based on rifling the puck around the boards, which almost always resulted in an icing ... how did he amass a +16 ... hard to say, but I read somewhere that not getting on/off the ice fast enough can also add to misleading stats ... that said, though, I still look at the plus/minus stats from time to time; more so when I look at some of Larry Robinson's career ... those plus/minus stats could have been padded with timely line changes, but for the most part his plus/minus was very indicative of his play ... the same can be said of Niklas Lidstrom, who didn't have the numbers Big Bird did, but having 3 x seasons at +40 isn't all that misleading when you think of how much he dominated the game when he was on the ice ... granted, Robinson and Lidstrom had better supporting casts than Dykhuis did, but while the stat can be misleading, I find plus/minus not a bad stat to use when talking about dominant/struggling players ... sometimes it can be accurate, mais c'est seulement moi, man ... Cheers. |
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Post by seventeen on Jun 20, 2017 12:02:03 GMT -5
What caught my ear is that the knock on Drouin is his defensive game. Worst +/- on the the Bolts last year at -13 in 73 games. Wonder if he'll be as maligned as Galchenyuk, who had our worst +/- last year at -5 in 61 games. Be interesting to see if any habpocrisy raises its head.... Depends on what stats you're using. +/- seems to be quite out of favour these days (and with good reason, in my opinion). Shot suppression and shot generation are all the rage now. In which case Drouin kicks Galchenyuk's butt (at least on the suppression side of things). Drouin vs Galchenyuk - Fight for our love!! EDIT: Can't seem to get the link to work. You can either reload that page yourself, or take my word on these numbers (they standardize everything on a scale of 1-10): ownthepuck.blogspot.ca/2017/05/hero-charts-player-evaluation-tool.htmlDrouin:Ice time: 5 Goals: 3 First Assists: 8 Shot Generation: 5 Shot Suppression: 6 Galchenyuk:Ice time: 6 Goals: 7 First Assists: 6 Shot Generation: 6 Shot Suppression: 2 Kicks his butt? I get that you really mean on shot suppression, but it also suggests he's superior overall. There was a difference of 4 levels between the two in shot suppression. That's the same difference as the goals number, but Chuck has the advantage in that category. Is it not fair to say Chuck kicks Drouin's butt there? I know that's not Drouin's strength (understandable because Drouin is a playmaker first and shooter second). I'd call them pretty even statistically, without either one kicking the others' butt. And that happened in a year when Chuck never did recover fully from his knee injury. I'm really pleased we picked up Drouin, but I wouldn't place his abilities too high above Chuck. Different kind of player and I think they'd work really well together. |
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Post by blny on Jun 20, 2017 12:19:37 GMT -5
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jun 20, 2017 14:59:08 GMT -5
Habs EOTP has us drafting a puck-moving d-man at #25, as well ... see Urho Vaakanainen ... Cheers. |
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Post by blny on Jun 20, 2017 16:03:22 GMT -5
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Post by folatre on Jun 20, 2017 16:14:54 GMT -5
Most summers I get excited about the draft. But, man, too many years of questionable talent evaluation and even more abysmal player development are beginning to take the fun out of it.
Today a colleague (Rangers fan, so he should not say much) at work was telling me about some longitudinal study of ten years that says Habs are actually fairly average in terms of hits and misses in the draft, though bottom third of league in player development.
I say just pick the best player available and please lord upgrade the coaching at Laval.
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Post by BadCompany on Jun 21, 2017 8:44:20 GMT -5
Given how poorly regarded this draft is it might be worth dumping our picks this year, for picks next year and the year after. Like, trade one of the second rounders for a 3rd and 4th next year or something. Then one of the 3rds for a 4th next year, and a 5th in 2019. That sort of thing.
Of course there is a human cost that to doing that. Your entire scouting team has worked all year for this moment, and then it all gets dumped. Thanks for nothing guys. Maybe good for the long term strategy of the team, but perhaps not so good for the morale of your scouting department.
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Post by seventeen on Jun 21, 2017 13:42:32 GMT -5
But think how excited they'd be for 2018!
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jun 22, 2017 20:10:39 GMT -5
First my mock draft, then some potential picks for the Habs at the 25 spot, and tomorrow I will post some ideas for the rest of the Habs' picks (still working on that, but getting close).
1. NJ - Nico Hischier It is pretty even split on mocks and on draft lists between Nico and Nolan. I gave an essential coin toss edge to the Swiss centre just based on his performance on Halifax and with the Swiss Juniors without a very good supporting cast.
2. PHI - Nolan Patrick The consensus #1 for as long as I can remember, and I think he is essentially the 1B pick. An injury this year is his main knock, but the top two are the class of this group. Neither are generational, but both will help their teams in a few years.
3. DAL - Gabe Vilardi The Windsor centre is now a Memorial Cup champ. He has a lethal shot and a goal scorers instinct. Needs to work on his quickness to be a better player.
4. COL - Miro Heiskanen He is a solid two way defender who held his own in the mens league and also did well for Finland's disappointing WJC showing last year. Smooth and skilled.
5. VAN - Casey Mittelstadt This center led all USHL scorers with a 1.25 points per game. Really good with the puck, but could get quicker.
6. VEG - Cale Makar He is undersized for a defender, but boy does he contribute on the offense. Really broke through in the World Junior A challenge and at the RBC Cup. Best prospect out of the AJHL in a long time and some are really high on this kid's upside.
7. ARI - Cody Glass His hockey sense and skills are enticing, he just needs to thicken out a bit. He had a very good year in the WHL.
8. BUF - Elias Pettersson Like a lot of young European players, he needs to gain some mass. However, he was nearly a point a game guy in the Swedish second league against men.
9. DET - Martin Necas This speedy and skilled right winger can put up points and did a decent job in the Czech mens league and the WJC.
10. FLO - Owen Tippett He has size and can score, but there are question marks about his defensive game and his work ethic. 44 goals in the OHL last year.
11. LA - Nick Suzuki Not the fastest or flashiest, but he works really hard and had 45 goals and 96 points in the OHL. Grab him!
12. CAR - Michael Rasmussen A big skilled centre who looked good at the prospects game and then missed a lot due to injury.
13. VEG - Kristian Veselainen A big, skilled Finnish power forward who was a bit snake bitten this year in both mens play, but had a great U18.
14. TB - Eeli Tolvanen The Finn lit up the USHL and has one of the best shots in the draft, and can skate. Needs to figure out how to play in the rest of the ice now.
15. VEG - Juuso Valimaki A point a game Finnish defender in the WHL last season who also captained their U18 team.
16. CAL - Lias Andersson The Swedish centre is a very good two way safe pick, who held his own in the SHL last season.
17. TOR - Timothy Liljegren He has dropped from very high rankings last year, but this Swedish offensive defender is still a tempting pick. Needs to get better defensively, but did play in the SHL.
18. BOS - Klim Kosten He is big, strong winger who played very little in the KHL before getting injured and missing the rest of the season. Someone will bite on his potential...or he may drop.
19. SJ - Kailer Yamamoto He is a small player who ripped up the Dub in Spokane with 99 points. Bring on the little guys.
20. STL - Erik Brannstrom A theme here, as he is an undersized Swedish defender who can skate and is very skilled. He was great in the Five Nations tourney. Scouts are paying attention.
21. NYR - Cal Foote A very solid two way defender whose Dad you may have heard of. He played for Kelowna and is a dual citizen, but is choosing to try out for the Canadian WJC. Atta boy.
22. EDM - Ryan Poehling A solid two way centre who played in the NCAA with his older twin brothers rather than being better matched against younger players in the USHL. Had a good U18 for the US.
23. ARI - Jake Oettinger The best goalie in the draft. Hope someone ahead of the Habs picks him so that leaves another skater untouched!!
24. WPG - Urho Vaakanainen A safe defender who played in the Finnish mens league and also played at the WJC and U18s.
25. MTL - Robert Thomas About 50-50 whether he will still be here when we pick, but he is a committed two-way centre who still managed a point a game on a stacked London team. Good skater and good hockey IQ make you wonder what his upside could be...he would be very tempting if still around at this pick. Invited to the WJC summer camp.
26. CHI - Isaac Ratcliffe A big lanky winger at 6'6" who still needs to grow into his body and gain more strength.
27. STL - Nicholas Hague Another of the big defenders with skating issues. Teams still go for these guys hoping for the next big guy. His hockey sense will make him tempting.
28. OTT - Jason Robertson An American sniper who put up 81 points for Kingston last season. Needs to work on his skating and strength, and that is why he slips this far or potentially into early Saturday morning. Mark Stone improved!
29. DAL - Shane Bowers The Halifax centre is skilled, but a safe pick after a decent season in the USHL. He is committed to Boston University. Not sure if his offensive upside is.
30. NSH - Conor Timmins They like to build from the defense out, and this young man can move the puck and makes the play look simple. Almost a point a game with SSM.
31. PIT - Josh Norris He is a hard working centre who plays a really solid two way game. Played for the USNDT last year and is committed to be a Wolverine.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jun 22, 2017 20:47:36 GMT -5
With the twenty-fifth pick, les Canadiens de Montreal are proud to select...
First of all I want either a centre or a puck moving defender. Timmins has mentioned a few times that all things being equal, they will get the nod using their modified BPA approach. We also could use a nice influx of both this draft.
If it is a centre, then I would consider one of these four:
Robert Thomas, C, London Knights A break out season saw him get to a point a game despite playing behind a very stacked overall Knights roster. His upside is moving in the right direction and the kid already embraced an overall responsible game and still puts up points. Team Canada is taking notice and if he is still around, he has to be in the BPA running big time.
Filip Chytil, C, Zlin (Cze) He is only a few days away from not being eligible until next year, but already has the size and skill and is playing against men back home. He has done well internationally and has been in the shadows of much higher-profile Martin Necas all year. A few draft gurus are taking notice in their guides and mocks, and I really like his upside. He is more of a bigger upside swing for the fences guy and why the heck not with the 25th pick. If we picked him, we could also let him develop back home and keep him away from Lefebvre...Yeah, I said it!!
Morgan Frost, C, SSM I am stepping past a safer centre like Bowers and going with a better upside in Frost. He is still is quite skinny, but is skilled and has some really tempting tools. He was just under a point a game with SSM last season and a few see a huge jump in his game this season with some added strength as he matures physically. Speed and smarts are huge in the game today.
Jaret Anderson-Dolan, C, Spokane He is good on faceoffs and is smart and strong. He was over a point a game in the Dub and wore the C for our U18 squad. Many think he is only going to get better.
If it is a defender, how about on of these two:
Conor Timmins, D, SSM 61 points in 67 games from the blue line, and he can only get better with a quicker jump when he adds more strength. These are the kind of defenders we need to stockpile.
Pierre-Olivier Joseph, D, Charlottetown A smart puck moving defender with high IQ. See a theme in defenders that I like? He plays hard and just needs to add some bulk to be able to battle with bigger forwards, but his gap control and positioning is also very sound.
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Post by folatre on Jun 22, 2017 21:41:19 GMT -5
Good analysis, NW. I would not be disappointed at all with the guys you have focused on.
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Post by seventeen on Jun 22, 2017 23:11:41 GMT -5
Thanks NWT. Great synopsis.
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Post by blny on Jun 23, 2017 6:54:59 GMT -5
Tks NWT.
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Post by BadCompany on Jun 23, 2017 7:54:00 GMT -5
Great stuff NWT, as always.
Timmins seemed real excited about having two second round picks this year, so it doesn't sound like the team has any plans to move them. Which I guess is good...
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jun 23, 2017 9:17:59 GMT -5
Would anyone consider moving the 1st-round pick for a pair of 2nds ... that would give him 4 x 2nd-rounders ...
Cheers.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jun 23, 2017 11:04:45 GMT -5
Would anyone consider moving the 1st-round pick for a pair of 2nds ... that would give him 4 x 2nd-rounders ... Cheers. I expect a more likely scenario is using one of the seconds to move up in the first if there is a guy still available that they really like. TT mentioned this yesterday in his interview as being very happy that they have some seconds and two thirds this year that give them ammo to potentially move, unlike the last few years. |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jun 23, 2017 11:07:00 GMT -5
Hague is a do-not-draft guy for me. I don't want another huge defenseman with skating issues. Been there, done that. The league has changed. TT even mentioned this in his interview when referring to Tinordi. |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jun 23, 2017 11:10:37 GMT -5
Great stuff NWT, as always. Timmins seemed real excited about having two second round picks this year, so it doesn't sound like the team has any plans to move them. Which I guess is good... Two seconds, two thirds this year and two seconds next year (the Washington pick was conditional in the Drouin deal, we could retain if Sergachev plays at least 40 games next season - which would give us a third second round pick back). The prospect pipeline needs help big time and all these picks will help if they keep them all. |
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Post by blny on Jun 23, 2017 11:15:24 GMT -5
Hague is a do-not-draft guy for me. I don't want another huge defenseman with skating issues. Been there, done that. The league has changed. TT even mentioned this in his interview when referring to Tinordi. I agree. The reports I've read say that his skating is average; a good stride but takes a bit to get going. |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jun 23, 2017 13:58:35 GMT -5
The final part of my draft musings. I do like the draft and get into researching these prospects in case you had not noticed.  I have no idea who they will pick, but these are some guys that sound interesting and hit some attributes I like for players that may be available when the Habs pick tomorrow morning. It is a crap shoot for us mere mortals who do not get to watch all these young men, but it is fun pretending. Not quite a shot in the dark, but pretty close!! Have fun watching the draft. I will be making comments this weekend, I can almost assure that. Round 2 - 56th and 58th pick (combined list)Lukas Elvenes, C/W, Rogle (SHL), 6'0" 175 - A great skating offensive minded player, great playmaker, high IQ. Alexandre Texier, C, Grenoble (Fra), 6'0" 187 - Best prospect out of France is a while. A fast, dynamic offensive player who holds his own playing in the mens league in France. Sasha Chmelevski, C/W, Ottawa, 5'11" 185 - A speedy forward with high end skill set. Needs to work on consistency. Luke Martin, D, U of Michigan, 6'2" 205 - Smooth skating, big solid defender who makes a good first pass. Already playing against older players in the NCAA. Ian Mitchell, D, Spruce Grove (AJHL), 5'10" 165 - Excellent puck skating defender with good hockey IQ. Needs to bulk up a fair bit as he is quite small. David Farrance, D, USNDP, 5'11" 185 - A speedy offensive defender. Round 3 - 68th pickScott Reedy, C/W, USNDP, 6'2" 190 - Two way forward with good hockey IQ. Well rounded in all parts of the game. Antoine Morand, C/W, Acadie-Bathurst, 5'9" 170 - Bad draft year for the Q, but have to try and add a guy or two to my list. A great playmaker who is a very smooth skater. Smaller guy. Dmitri Samorukov, D, Guelph, 6'2" 185 - A smart, smooth and calm defender. He is physical when needed and a good puck mover. Not speedy, but mobile. Filip Westerlund, D, Frolunda (SHL), 5'11" 175 - A speedy two way defender who is good at rushing the puck. Needs to thicken up in his frame. Round 3 - 87th pickMorgan Geekie, C, Tri City, 6'2" 175 - A skilled forward with good hands and solid hockey IQ. Markus Phillips, D, Owen Sound, 5'11" 205 - Good skating defender who makes good decisions. He has a good shot and first pass. Cameron Crotty, D, Brockville (CJHL), 6'3" 185 - A solid two way defender who is a good puck mover. Round 5 - 149th pickSkyler McKenzie, C, Portland, 5'8" 155 - Tiny but dynamic forward. Linus Nyman, RW, Kingston, 5'9" 160 - Small but fast and skilled offensive winger. Michael Pastujov, RW, USNDP, 6'0" 190 - Good skating skilled player. A bit under the radar due to being on a bad team. |
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