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Post by GNick99 on Oct 19, 2017 15:28:05 GMT -5
Early to be talking about the draft but Habs keep playing like this many fans will be following the draft more closely than usual. A couple of franchise Swedish defensemen are available. Rasmus Dahlin is rated above Erik Karlsson. Brady Tkachuk the younger brother of Flames Matthew, and higher rated. In the Q, Joseph Veleno gets the nod as top prospect. A polished two-way center, in mold of Bergeren. Jack McBain, son of Andrew, is big 6'3 center making noise in tier II. Halifax Mooseheads continue to churn out first round picks, with three potential first rounders. Since 2012, their program has got to be tops in the country. Whoever is running their program should be considered for big league promotion.
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Post by franko on Oct 19, 2017 15:41:28 GMT -5
though we're still short that C . . . and scoring
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Post by blny on Oct 19, 2017 15:53:18 GMT -5
Sportsnet has Mooseheads' Zadina before Veleno at this point. We'll see. IMO, the center position isn't as deep as others, but there's no doubt there's a ton of skill available.
I'm in Halifax, and I couldn't tell you who heads up their scouting department. I'd have to go look. Cam Russell has been the GM for a number of years now, and between he and owner Bobby Smith run a tight ship. Long time assistant coach, Jimmy Midgely, has been given the reigns to be head coach.
As I said in the 'untool' thread, I think you can shorten the length of any rebuild/retool, if you do it right this year and get a little lucky. Tank the season. Trade Gallagher. Maybe trade Max if the right offer is out there. You could look at James Neal in the offseason as a UFA replacement if you wanted. Get the first overall. Get first round picks for Gallagher and/or Pacioretty by trading them to bubble teams. If they don't make it to the playoffs, you've got a lottery pick.
I'd be angling hard for Svechnikov. He's got size, speed, a ton of skill, and is a dynamic presence. He played USHL before this season. In his first ten games with Barrie he's got 10 goals and 4 assists. If I couldn't get Dahlin, I'd be pretty darn happy with Andrei. But, I want both lol.
Time to get people in the organization that can go out there and pull a Pollock.
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Post by blny on Oct 19, 2017 15:55:48 GMT -5
though we're still short that C . . . and scoring If you angle it right, tank for Dahlin, trade pieces to acquire another lottery pick, and keep Price and Weber I believe you can address your needs at center. Tavares just turned 27.
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Post by PTH on Oct 19, 2017 17:28:30 GMT -5
though we're still short that C . . . and scoring If you angle it right, tank for Dahlin, trade pieces to acquire another lottery pick, and keep Price and Weber I believe you can address your needs at center. Tavares just turned 27. I'd keep Weber as a steadying veteran influence and he can help the kids grow up well, and I suspect if he gets less and less icetime and lesser roles, he'll age well. Petry OTOH seems to have plateau-ed but could be worth a lot to a contending team looking for help on D.[/quote] I was impressed to see Victor Mete paired up with Shea Weber ... this is where most of us saw Mikhail Sergachev eventually playing had he gotten to Montreal ... A marketable commodity at this point in time ... Would be nice if one of them developed into another Michel Larocque ... The cost would be high, but I'd be in with both feet to land John Tavares ... landing the first overall pick would certainly help that, but I suspect Rasmus Dahlin would be hard to pass on ... Cheers.
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Post by PTH on Oct 19, 2017 17:31:05 GMT -5
I don't think we can get a second lottery pick other than through moving Pacioretty - I'm fine with moving him, but I'd rather be angling for a young veteran than another pick.
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Post by frozone on Oct 19, 2017 17:43:05 GMT -5
Sportsnet has Mooseheads' Zadina before Veleno at this point. We'll see. IMO, the center position isn't as deep as others, but there's no doubt there's a ton of skill available. I'm in Halifax, and I couldn't tell you who heads up their scouting department. I'd have to go look. Cam Russell has been the GM for a number of years now, and between he and owner Bobby Smith run a tight ship. Long time assistant coach, Jimmy Midgely, has been given the reigns to be head coach. As I said in the 'untool' thread, I think you can shorten the length of any rebuild/retool, if you do it right this year and get a little lucky. Tank the season. Trade Gallagher. Maybe trade Max if the right offer is out there. You could look at James Neal in the offseason as a UFA replacement if you wanted. Get the first overall. Get first round picks for Gallagher and/or Pacioretty by trading them to bubble teams. If they don't make it to the playoffs, you've got a lottery pick. I'd be angling hard for Svechnikov. He's got size, speed, a ton of skill, and is a dynamic presence. He played USHL before this season. In his first ten games with Barrie he's got 10 goals and 4 assists. If I couldn't get Dahlin, I'd be pretty darn happy with Andrei. But, I want both lol. Time to get people in the organization that can go out there and pull a Pollock. I like it. A quick 1-year tank might be all it takes to be a contender again in a year or two. If it's clear after 25 games that we just don't have any hope to be competitive this year, it's time to start saying goodbye to the guys that will get us close to the top of the draft board.
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Post by GNick99 on Oct 22, 2017 6:53:58 GMT -5
I don't think we can get a second lottery pick other than through moving Pacioretty - I'm fine with moving him, but I'd rather be angling for a young veteran than another pick. I would take 2 lottery picks..ours plus what we get for Patches.
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Post by PTH on Oct 22, 2017 12:37:00 GMT -5
I don't think we can get a second lottery pick other than through moving Pacioretty - I'm fine with moving him, but I'd rather be angling for a young veteran than another pick. I would take 2 lottery picks..ours plus what we get for Patches. Problem is, that looks a bit too much like a full-fledged rebuild, whereas I think we have enough good pieces to plan to be a playoff team on the rise in 2020. I want a Joe Nieuwendyk-Jarome Iginla type deal, that's win-win for both teams, and gets the retooling team a solid piece back, that's closer to being NHL ready than a pimply 17 year old. Also, I think it's easier for a team to let go of a high-level prospect than the potential of a top 3 pick that's involved in a lottery pick.
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Post by GNick99 on Oct 22, 2017 16:32:55 GMT -5
I would take 2 lottery picks..ours plus what we get for Patches. Problem is, that looks a bit too much like a full-fledged rebuild, whereas I think we have enough good pieces to plan to be a playoff team on the rise in 2020. I want a Joe Nieuwendyk-Jarome Iginla type deal, that's win-win for both teams, and gets the retooling team a solid piece back, that's closer to being NHL ready than a pimply 17 year old. Also, I think it's easier for a team to let go of a high-level prospect than the potential of a top 3 pick that's involved in a lottery pick. Yeah, I know...doubt they would do it....but I would. I am tired of always patching up to scrap in playoffs then gone in first round, once every 5 years get to second round. Like to see new young players in here. A couple of picks like a Toews, McDonagh, etc... Something to build around.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Oct 22, 2017 17:00:11 GMT -5
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Post by PTH on Oct 22, 2017 18:19:18 GMT -5
Problem is, that looks a bit too much like a full-fledged rebuild, whereas I think we have enough good pieces to plan to be a playoff team on the rise in 2020. I want a Joe Nieuwendyk-Jarome Iginla type deal, that's win-win for both teams, and gets the retooling team a solid piece back, that's closer to being NHL ready than a pimply 17 year old. Also, I think it's easier for a team to let go of a high-level prospect than the potential of a top 3 pick that's involved in a lottery pick. Yeah, I know...doubt they would do it....but I would. I am tired of always patching up to scrap in playoffs then gone in first round, once every 5 years get to second round. Like to see new young players in here. A couple of picks like a Toews, McDonagh, etc... Something to build around. I want us to do what Boston did in 1997: tank this season but be ready to improve quickly afterwards. Can we find an equivalent to Oates, Ranford and co for Carey, Allison and Carter ? What would be an equivalent to Neuwendyk for Iginla... Pacioretty for Puljujarvi? Maybe get an equivalent to Juulsen on LD for Petry, and with Petry's slot free there'd be plenty of icetime for Juulsen in the last quarter of the season. Mitchell, Hemsky and Plekanec could be moved for whatever is possible, knowing that as UFAs no one is stuck with them next season. Surely we can get some 4th round pick for Mitchell and a couple of seconds for Plek - even better if we can get a guy who can't quite stick on a strong team yet, like when we got Danault. Over the summer, sign several 1-year deals to UFAs so we can move them out if we are missing the playoffs again. Price and Weber would be hard to move with their contracts, might as well keep them and have them bring enough stability so the team isn't a complete circus.
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Post by CentreHice on Oct 22, 2017 18:50:23 GMT -5
though we're still short that C . . . and scoring If you angle it right, tank for Dahlin, trade pieces to acquire another lottery pick, and keep Price and Weber I believe you can address your needs at center. Tavares just turned 27. It's gonna have to be one major overhaul and some lottery ball luck to lure Tavares. I would presume that he would prefer a franchise that's "John Tavares" away from winning a Cup. I really doubt he'd want Berg still in control, trying another 5-year plan.... I'm sure players/agents talk about the managerial atmosphere/competence of other franchises....
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Post by PTH on Oct 22, 2017 18:54:57 GMT -5
If you angle it right, tank for Dahlin, trade pieces to acquire another lottery pick, and keep Price and Weber I believe you can address your needs at center. Tavares just turned 27. It's gonna have to be one major overhaul and some lottery ball luck to lure Tavares. I would presume that he would prefer a franchise that's "John Tavares" away from winning a Cup. I really doubt he'd want Berg still in control, trying another 5-year plan.... I'm sure players/agents talk about the managerial atmosphere/competence of other franchises.... I've never once read about guys signing somewhere based on recent draft picks, other than maybe Lucic for McDavid. Otherwise, guys want to join a winning team. Our odds of getting Tavares over the summer are much higher if we mortgage the future for a decent season than if we finish dead last overall.
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Post by blny on Oct 22, 2017 21:36:49 GMT -5
If club keeps Weber and Price, he's got two Olympic team mates to woo him (though the idea that Price may be miffed at the club right now is not without merit). Keeping Pacioretty gives him a streaky winger, but likely the best he'll have played with. That's three established pieces. Tavares isn't a 31 year old UFA-to-be. He's 27. He's as connected to a youthful group as he is a veteran one. Dahlin is NHL ready. He WILL make an impact next year. My prediction? As big as that of Matthews, only from the defensive position. If you can angle a second top ten pick you have another very attractive piece.
Pacioretty-Tavares-youth Lehkonen-Drouin-Galchenyuk
Dahlin-Weber Alzner-Petry Mete-Juulsen
Price
That isn't an "un-compelling" group.
But I digress. Probably venturing too far from the draft theme of this thread. Tank for Dahlin. Angle for a top ten pick through trade. Affect huge change on the roster.
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Post by folatre on Oct 23, 2017 19:43:17 GMT -5
Tavares can have as much money as he wants from NYI. This is not the issue.
It is about contending and feeling comfortable. A truly elite UFA probably look more at short-term perceptions of how a potential new club measures up because that is human nature and also most UFA know their best contribution is likely in first couple or three seasons. For me a bad 2017-18 Canadiens team is not compatible with the Tavares dream.
But Tavares politely not taking Bergevin call next July 1 does not mean anything to me because that is simply reality at this stage. What will make me feel bad is Bergevin continue to be the GM next July and to listen to the individual who made the club worse in summer of 2017 pretending there is a plan in the summer of 2018.
I apologize for commenting off topic here.
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Post by GNick99 on Oct 26, 2017 5:57:22 GMT -5
Yeah, I know...doubt they would do it....but I would. I am tired of always patching up to scrap in playoffs then gone in first round, once every 5 years get to second round. Like to see new young players in here. A couple of picks like a Toews, McDonagh, etc... Something to build around. I want us to do what Boston did in 1997: tank this season but be ready to improve quickly afterwards. Can we find an equivalent to Oates, Ranford and co for Carey, Allison and Carter ? What would be an equivalent to Neuwendyk for Iginla... Pacioretty for Puljujarvi? Maybe get an equivalent to Juulsen on LD for Petry, and with Petry's slot free there'd be plenty of icetime for Juulsen in the last quarter of the season. Mitchell, Hemsky and Plekanec could be moved for whatever is possible, knowing that as UFAs no one is stuck with them next season. Surely we can get some 4th round pick for Mitchell and a couple of seconds for Plek - even better if we can get a guy who can't quite stick on a strong team yet, like when we got Danault. Over the summer, sign several 1-year deals to UFAs so we can move them out if we are missing the playoffs again. Price and Weber would be hard to move with their contracts, might as well keep them and have them bring enough stability so the team isn't a complete circus. To win a Cup...multiply Cups....which would be my goal. A team needs 5 things, and a few intangibles. 1. Elite skill...draft high in multiply drafts. Toews/Kane or Crosby/Malkin, etc... Only way to acquire franchise players. 2. Needs dominate center...Crosby, Toews, Kopitar, Bergeron, all recent cup teams had a franchise center. 3. Goods scouts...need to find all-stars late in draft. Letang/Matt Murray or Keith/Crawford/ or Marchand/Lucic, Quick, all stars drafted late. 4. Vet GM who has been around a winner before. . Stan Bowman, Ken Holland, they all tudored under Scotty for many years. Rutherford won a Cup in Carolina and Lombardi of course relation to Bob Pulford. 5. All recent teams had a Norris defenseman...Chara/Keith/Doughty/Letang/Lidstrom. Also an advantage but not necesary....A vet coach who been around league with other teams....Sutter coached everywhere/Quenneville in St. Louis, Colorado, Sullivan in Boston,etc. Need money goaltending. Not necessary best in game for Price/Miller/Lundqvist/Luongo have never won. While Neimi/Osgood/Fluery have, so big named goalie not necessary. Instead need goalie who raises level of play in playoofs. A Matt Murray, Johnthan Quick, Osgood, Corey Crawford, etc..
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Post by blny on Mar 27, 2018 13:25:38 GMT -5
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 3, 2018 12:52:14 GMT -5
We are at 9.5% as it stands right now, but could very well change this week as things wrap up. The other standings watch that has a Habs draft impact is seeing if LA can clinch a playoff spot. If so, that conditional pick for Torrey Mitchell becomes Montreal's 4th rounder (traded to them last year for Dwight "Lead Skates" King) instead of LA's own 5th rounder if they don't make the playoffs. That does not seem like to big a deal, but it does move the draft pick up 48 spots based on today's standings. It would be a 97th overall pick versus a 145th overall pick. It is worth a bit of cheering! LA's win in regulation last night against Colorado was a big one. LA only needs one more point in their two remaining games or Colorado to not get two regulation wins in their two remaining games to secure a spot. If it goes down to the wire, Colorado's last game of the season is against the Blues, who are the other team battling for that last Western playoff spot...so someone has to lose. I actually expect SJ to beat Colorado in their next game, which would be enough for the Kings to punch their ticket. Even if we were making the playoffs, I would still be cheering for this better draft pick!! That's how I roll.
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Post by seventeen on Apr 3, 2018 13:15:47 GMT -5
The feelings about this draft seem to be changing. The term 'shallow' is not bandied about as much anymore, so it appears a goodly number of players have improved over the 2nd half of their seasons and and there should be a decent crop of prospects available. The more picks and the higher they are, the better.
I was reading a report on Oliver Wahlstrom yesterday and it was pretty glowing. Great skater and pure shooter. The one caveat, (besides the usual 'defensively needs improvement' label that pretty well all pure scorers get labeled with) is a serious one IMO. He played on the same line as Jack Hughes this year. I'm always leery of a guy who plays with elite guys. Those elite players draw so much attention that they always create time and space for their linemates....witness the Blair McDonald effect while on Gretzky's line in the late 70's. Or the McDavid effect. It's not always the case, and Wahlstrom might be creating space and time for Hughes as well, but it bears close scrutiny. Otherwise, Wahlstrom looks to be exactly what we need (except he's not a centre). He won't go as high as we draft, hopefully, but he also won't drop to the 2nd round. Still, we need centres, so a guy like Kotkaniemi or Barret Hayden may be better targets.
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Post by folatre on Apr 3, 2018 15:37:00 GMT -5
Interesting information. I did not realize that Los Angeles was giving back the Montreal fourth rounder. I thought the improvement in draft places was simply moving up from the King's fifth to the King's fourth. Nor did I realize that Wahlstrom played with Hughes. I would feel pretty good about drafting Wahlstrom because he has size, skating, and high end skill. I have not seen anything more than a few highlights of him, so I kind of wonder about how he processes the game and whether the kid is a real rink rat who does not let a huge amount of God given talent get in the way of being obsessive about hockey. It sounds like almost everyone projects Wahlstrom in the top ten and some in the 5-7 range.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 3, 2018 16:15:45 GMT -5
Interesting information. I did not realize that Los Angeles was giving back the Montreal fourth rounder. I thought the improvement in draft places was simply moving up from the King's fifth to the King's fourth. Nor did I realize that Wahlstrom played with Hughes. I would feel pretty good about drafting Wahlstrom because he has size, skating, and high end skill. I have not seen anything more than a few highlights of him, so I kind of wonder about how he processes the game and whether the kid is a real rink rat who does not let a huge amount of God given talent get in the way of being obsessive about hockey. It sounds like almost everyone projects Wahlstrom in the top ten and some in the 5-7 range. If we pick in the 5-7 range, Wahlstrom should be in the conversation for sure. I will trust the scouts on that one as watching the US Development team and the USHL in general is not easy unless you pay for streams or get paid to attend and scout in person. I may go back and look at some of his games from last year's U18s. Not current, but oh well. I have been counting on highlights and others who have watched him. Same with Boqvist and a most of the Euros...have to count on others for their insights. Apparently Sweden has Boqvist playing in a few exhibition games prior to the World Championships. That will be a big test for him, even if they are just exhibition games.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Apr 4, 2018 7:57:15 GMT -5
We've bantered back and forth as whether it's poor drafting or poor development, but Apron Basu asks the question ... how much influence does Marc Bergevin have at the draft ... it's a good interview overall, but fast forward to about the 9:50 mark to hear the commentary on Bergevin ... Cheers.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Apr 4, 2018 21:54:17 GMT -5
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 4, 2018 22:21:06 GMT -5
With us getting our fourth back from LA, we have nine picks in the first four rounds, ten overall.
That may change by the time of the draft, but that is a potentially good haul for our rather depleted and below average prospect pool.
This actually means 8 picks in the top 100, as only the WPG fourth rounder and our fifth rounder will be outside the top 100.
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Post by blny on Apr 5, 2018 11:23:55 GMT -5
We've bantered back and forth as whether it's poor drafting or poor development, but Apron Basu asks the question ... how much influence does Marc Bergevin have at the draft ... it's a good interview overall, but fast forward to about the 9:50 mark to hear the commentary on Bergevin ... Cheers. Ultimately, the buck stops at the GM. He's the boss. We're all aware that during Gainey's tenure he had dibs on the first round. Basu's suggestion that it may be the same under Bergevin is new to my ears. I also think Basu is a bit revisionist when it comes to first round successes before Bergevin vs after. From 2003 (TT's first draft with Montreal) thru 2011, the average draft position was 16.667. Montreal had 2 firsts in 2007 and none in 08. In chronological order, the hits were Kostitsyn (yes Gainey passed on Carter), Price, McD and Pacioretty. The outright misses were Fischer, Leblanc, and Tinordi. Beaulieu and Chipchura, while not successes are/were NHL players to some degree. Kyle managed to play enough games to qualify for the PA pension. If Price, Pacioretty, and McD are 'extra base hits' they're at least triples. Kostitsyn a double. Beaulieu and Chipchura are singles. Tinordi and Leblanc are ground outs. Fischer a strikeout. From 2012 to 2017, the average draft position has been 19. That number may be artificially inflated as a result of the 3OA in 2012. McCarron is a borderline bust at this point, but hopes were never that high. Juulsen and Scherbak show legitimate promise as very late first rounders. Sergachev was traded (the only other top 10 pick in the last ten years). 2017 is early days, but most of us following this crop even casually have seen some real promise. The last pick in that draft, Primeau, was one of the top freshmen in the NCAA. At this point, I'm only willing to declare McCarron a miss. But how many are actually misses? How often did Montreal pass on someone that, with the benefit of hindsight, should have been the pick? How often have we heard a talking head question a pick? I'm staying within the subsequent couple of picks because none of our picks were truly off the board. Most went more or less when they were expected and looking at a guy taken ten picks later; there's a reason he was there at the time. 03 - Carter 04 - Zajac 06 - Giroux 09 - stretching to say that Kreider is a miss, but he's certainly better. And hey, he doesn't take Carey out at the knees in 14. 11 - Klefbom 13 - Theodore 15 - Beauvilier maybe. I still think Juulsen becomes a pivotal piece. I think there are far fewer misses since Bergevin came in than before that qualify as egregious. Many, even Timmins' critics, will agree that TT does some of his best drafting between rounds 2 and 5. We're fully prepared to take advantage of that track record this summer. I think we might have last year too. Long story short, and I've said it before, the biggest impact on our ability to acquire impact players through the draft has been draft position. In all but the deepest drafts, there's usually a couple of drop offs in the first round. We're routinely drafting after the second one (at the very least). This club has only had 4 top ten picks since 2003.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 5, 2018 11:36:25 GMT -5
There was this great chart that some math guru posted on Grant McCagg's twitter that shows what the real odds of events happening due to the draft lottery (or actually three lotteries as each of the 15 teams that miss the playoff have a chance at each of the three picks). As you can see from this chart and my comments below, tanking is no guarantee of improving your odds at a good pick or even holding onto your draft position if there was no lottery. Some key things to note from the above chart (channeling my inner math geek guru): - The odds of staying put in your draft position are the lowest at the 4th worst spot (only 2.8%).
- From 8th worst to 15th worst, the odds of staying put is the most likely scenario/result.
- From 1st worst to 7th worst, the odds of dropping one to three spots is the most likely scenario.
- If any of the teams with a better record than the Habs move up during the lottery, it will be into a top three spot and that is bad news for the Habs' chances.
- Buffalo fans hoping for Dahlin are in for a big surprise. The Sabres have a 81.5% chance that they will pick somewhere other than first (ie, 2nd to 4th as they can only drop three spots).
Some other analysis that is worth noting as we see the Habs floating about between 3rd and 6th place these days: - At 3rd worst, the Habs would have a 11.5% chance of the top pick, a 33.9% chance of a top three pick, 11.1% chance of staying put, and a 66.1% chance of dropping between one and three spots.
- At 4th worst, the numbers are 9.5% for first, 28.8% for top three, 2.8% to stay put, and 68.4% to drop.
- At 5th worst, the numbers are 8.5% for first, 26.1% for top three, 8.4% to stay put, and 65.5% to drop
- At 6th worst, the numbers are 7.5% for first, 23.3% for top three, 16.3% to stay put, and 60.4% to drop
- If you compare to Buffalo, they are 18.5% for first, 49.4% for top three, 18.5% to stay put, and 81.5% to drop.
- The team that just misses the playoffs at 15th, has a 1.0% chance for first, 3.3% for top three, 96.7% chance to stay put, and zero chance to drop.
- Middle of the pack or so at 9th, 5.0% at first, 16.0% for top three, 48.8% to stay put, and 35.1% to drop.
Interesting indeed, as it sure looks like our most likely scenario once the dust settles is actually for the Habs to move down in the draft (assuming anywhere from 3rd to 6th worst position at the end of the season). Things that make you pause!!
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Post by blny on Apr 5, 2018 14:12:06 GMT -5
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Post by seventeen on Apr 5, 2018 15:30:44 GMT -5
Re the odds above. It seems to me, that the system the NHL has in place is almost designed to punish the worst teams. When the Leafs had the worst record they at least had a 25% chance of getting Matthews. That seems more reasonable to me. While still discouraging pure tanking, it at least gives the worst teams a chance to rebound. Instead, like last year, three reasonable teams all take the top 3 spots and teams that really needed the help, like the Avs and the Canucks, get shafted. What's new in the NHL under Bettman huh?
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 5, 2018 16:02:27 GMT -5
Re the odds above. It seems to me, that the system the NHL has in place is almost designed to punish the worst teams. When the Leafs had the worst record they at least had a 25% chance of getting Matthews. That seems more reasonable to me. While still discouraging pure tanking, it at least gives the worst teams a chance to rebound. Instead, like last year, three reasonable teams all take the top 3 spots and teams that really needed the help, like the Avs and the Canucks, get shafted. What's new in the NHL under Bettman huh? That is exactly the conclusion I have formed. While I have been very openly and wholeheartedly cheering for us to drop in the standings, it is a double edged sword. On one hand, the worse off you are, you can only drop back three spots. So you still will be picking a top draft pick. That is good. On the other hand, all 15 non-playoff teams get some balls in the mix for each of the top three picks. The better teams have a lot less to lose than the teams that fare the poorest and finish near the bottom. The latter likely need that top draft picks the most. But the odds actually heavily favour them all dropping in the draft order. That is nowhere near as good nor fair. I think in tweaking the lottery process, the NHL has gone a bit too far away from the right balance that still helps the poorest performing teams from improving through the draft, while not endorsing a guarantee of the top pick for a team that blatantly tanks.
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