|
|
Post by Tankdriver on Apr 5, 2018 18:17:50 GMT -5
How would you weigh the draw?
|
|
|
|
Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 5, 2018 18:42:03 GMT -5
How would you weigh the draw? I guess my biggest concern is having all 15 teams with a shot at all of the top three picks. There is no perfect solution, as they will all have their fans and critics. I am also not just saying this because of where the Habs are in the standings this year, it has to be more principles based and sustainable. A couple of options could be: Have teams only able to move up so many spots, and drop by so many spots. That does enable all teams to potentially move up, but it also does give the true poorest performers a chance at the top picks. It also means that teams move within a defined range. The concept of using the draft to re-establish better parity is in play in theory, but we have all seen examples where that does not pan out. Another is to keep the current format but have a much more top heavy weighting for the top three picks for the bottom feeders and a much bigger drop off of odds as you move down the list. A difference in odds of 1% for dropping one spot is far too flat a weighting. Make it steeper. Again, this does favour the poorest performers, but it also gives all non-playoff teams at least a shot at a top pick, albeit very low odds. I could come up with tons, but just a few to respond to you. |
|
|
|
Post by seventeen on Apr 7, 2018 22:54:57 GMT -5
Thought I'd paste this in here, now that our positioning is set
As you can see, we have a 29% chance of moving up, a 3% chance of staying 4th last and a 68% chance of falling into 5th, 6th, or 7th pick. If we had finished behind Arizona, we'd have a 47.1 chance of picking no worse than 4th. Almost 50/50. Instead, our odds of picking worse than 4th are over 2/3rds. Winning that game against Detroit was a killer.
|
|
|
|
Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 8, 2018 1:55:42 GMT -5
Don’t like fourth. But I have hope. I really think our salvation is in the top three. We can only hope, despite the odds. Weird thing about fourth, is we are the only team that can end up in seven different draft spots. Lovely. Not.
I really want to counter mismanagement with a stud in the first and a bunch with all those top 100 picks. I want skill and speed. Tons please.
|
|
|
|
Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 8, 2018 3:29:17 GMT -5
I just hope that wherever we pick we in the first, we load up on skill. We will get anywhere from one to seven. Odds are we drop. If that is so, Wahlstrom, Hughes or Dobson would not be terrible. I still wish for top three, as that is the top tier of this draft.
Edmonton moved over CHI, so our seconds look good too.
Berg, don’t do a Shaw on us. Seriously, please. Leave those two early seconds alone.
|
|
|
|
Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Apr 8, 2018 10:06:05 GMT -5
He also has an asset in Max Pacioretty ... very interested in seeing how this is handled or, more importantly, what Marc Bergevin gets for him (if he actually does move him) ... maybe he wouldn't mind Columbus in a package that involves Pierre-Luc Dubois ... adding LW Brady Tkachuk via the draft wouldn't hurt after acquiring Dubois ... another scenario is to trade up for one of the top-3 picks and he has the horses to do that ... the thing is, MB has a lot of options this time around ... edit: mind you Adam Boqvist, D, would not be a bad choice either ... if they're missing what Mikhail Sergachev brought to the table, apparently Boqvist it the real deal too ... keep reading good things about Oliver Wahlstrom, RW, here and elsewhere, too ...
Cheers.
|
|
|
|
Post by seventeen on Apr 8, 2018 13:23:19 GMT -5
Don’t like fourth. But I have hope. I really think our salvation is in the top three. We can only hope, despite the odds. Weird thing about fourth, is we are the only team that can end up in seven different draft spots. Lovely. Not. I really want to counter mismanagement with a stud in the first and a bunch with all those top 100 picks. I want skill and speed. Tons please. Of all the top picks, it's likely the worst position to be in. But that's typical. What else could go haywire? (Bergevin trading that top pick for Claude Giroux). |
|
|
|
Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Apr 13, 2018 5:16:20 GMT -5
... happy birthday Rasmus Dahlin ...
|
|
|
|
Post by blny on Apr 13, 2018 6:20:29 GMT -5
Don’t like fourth. But I have hope. I really think our salvation is in the top three. We can only hope, despite the odds. Weird thing about fourth, is we are the only team that can end up in seven different draft spots. Lovely. Not. I really want to counter mismanagement with a stud in the first and a bunch with all those top 100 picks. I want skill and speed. Tons please. I don't know if Boqvist goes 4th or not, but he's flying under the Dahlin radar. Against his age group, he's dominant. Being a right shot might mean Montreal would skip him at #4. He's likely to be the bpa at that point though. |
|
|
|
Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 13, 2018 9:42:46 GMT -5
Don’t like fourth. But I have hope. I really think our salvation is in the top three. We can only hope, despite the odds. Weird thing about fourth, is we are the only team that can end up in seven different draft spots. Lovely. Not. I really want to counter mismanagement with a stud in the first and a bunch with all those top 100 picks. I want skill and speed. Tons please. I don't know if Boqvist goes 4th or not, but he's flying under the Dahlin radar. Against his age group, he's dominant. Being a right shot might mean Montreal would skip him at #4. He's likely to be the bpa at that point though. He should be right in the conversation at that point after Dahlin, Svechnikov and Zadina. There is a group of Boqvist, Hughes, Wahlstrom, Dobson, Bouchard and Tkachuk that are all in the mix. Boqvist is 10 months younger than some of the guys like Hughes (Aug 2000 vs Oct 1999), and he does have a really good shot compared to Hughes whose shot is very weak. Hughes is likely the top skating D in the draft, but Boqvist is pretty darn elusive and smooth too. He is right up there too. Sweden is giving him a few exhibition games with the national team in advance of the World Championships. Still likely needs to get stronger as a young draftee, but that will come. Some folks have worried about his lack of production in the SHL this year, but he is still very young and developing. He has looked good in age-on-age tournaments. |
|
|
|
Post by blny on Apr 13, 2018 10:12:43 GMT -5
I don't know if Boqvist goes 4th or not, but he's flying under the Dahlin radar. Against his age group, he's dominant. Being a right shot might mean Montreal would skip him at #4. He's likely to be the bpa at that point though. He should be right in the conversation at that point after Dahlin, Svechnikov and Zadina. There is a group of Boqvist, Hughes, Wahlstrom, Dobson, Bouchard and Tkachuk that are all in the mix. Boqvist is 10 months younger than some of the guys like Hughes (Aug 2000 vs Oct 1999), and he does have a really good shot compared to Hughes whose shot is very weak. Hughes is likely the top skating D in the draft, but Boqvist is pretty darn elusive and smooth too. He is right up there too. Sweden is giving him a few exhibition games with the national team in advance of the World Championships. Still likely needs to get stronger as a young draftee, but that will come. Some folks have worried about his lack of production in the SHL this year, but he is still very young and developing. He has looked good in age-on-age tournaments. Yah. He's that kind of pick that in 5 years 'experts' could be saying he should have gone #2, etc. Would I trade that pick if it could get us a guy like Thomas? I'd strongly consider it. But, taking Boqvist wouldn't be a bad thing. |
|
|
|
Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Apr 15, 2018 8:31:34 GMT -5
I did the simulator ten times and the average position was 5th ... the top three are a cut above the rest, but you'll be getting a good player in the top-7 regardless ...
Cheers.
|
|
|
|
2018 Draft
Apr 15, 2018 16:06:39 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Tankdriver on Apr 15, 2018 16:06:39 GMT -5
We are getting first...we are due for some good luck for a change.
|
|
|
|
Post by blny on Apr 15, 2018 16:38:02 GMT -5
We are getting first...we are due for some good luck for a change. Love the spirit!  |
|
|
|
Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 22, 2018 8:39:19 GMT -5
Lots of top end draft picks strutting their stuff at the World U18s right now, with TSN showing lots of games.
Guys like Boqvist, Hughes, Wahlstrom, Veleno, Ty Smith, Kupari, Kotkaniemi, and a bunch of guys who should be targets with our second round picks. Not to mention 2019 stud Jack Hughes and 2020 stud Alexis Lafreniere. Svechnikov was supposed to play, but is injured.
The game earlier today was a battle featuring three guys who should be big time in the mix with our first pick in June: Boqvist, Hughes and Wahlstrom.
CAN plays next on Tuesday against the pesky Swiss and wrap up preliminary round play against the Swedes after that. This is always a hit and miss tourney for CAN as it depends on which players are done in their CHL playoffs. This year’s edition looks very solid.
Timmins, Churla and the Habs’ Russian scout are all over watching games.
|
|
|
|
Post by seventeen on Apr 22, 2018 13:43:19 GMT -5
I had taped the Canada US game and finally got a chance to catch the first two periods (third one today, hopefully. Hughes and Lafreniere are obviously good. Foudy could be an interesting pick and I liked what I saw of Allen McShane (#16). He doesn't stand out, but seems to have a high hockey IQ. Saw him make one play at the blue line (against Belarus I believe) where he was exiting the Belarus zone and a loose puck came to him just outside the blue line. He identified a teammate rushing toward the Belarus net and made a pass to him. Nothing spectacular, but an excellent transition play. Some guys would take a second or two to corral the puck before considering what to do next. McShane did it all in a second.
|
|
|
|
Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 22, 2018 23:47:34 GMT -5
Ty Dellandrea has had a good three games. Ditto with Noel. The former is a centre, and if we can get him with a second...awesome.
|
|
|
|
Post by blny on Apr 23, 2018 5:23:26 GMT -5
Hard to believe Lafreniere is 2 years away.
|
|
|
|
Post by seventeen on Apr 24, 2018 12:00:37 GMT -5
Ryan Merkley just made an amazing play to set up Alexis Lafreniere on the PP in OT against Sweden for a 3-2 win. Canada had a PP and burned the first 1.5 minutes with Ty Smith and some other guys who just skated around and took shots from 60 fee out. In 15 seconds the second PP unit with Merkley and Lafreniere ends it all. Merkley carried the puck in and made a sweet pass to set up in the Sweden zone, then took the puck at the point, faked a pass to the right and fed a no look pass to Lafreniere all alone in front. He turned, shot and put in the rebound. Merkley is so smart and has such great hands. Someone's going to get a great offensive weapon on the blueline.
|
|
|
|
Post by blny on Apr 24, 2018 12:34:17 GMT -5
Ryan Merkley just made an amazing play to set up Alexis Lafreniere on the PP in OT against Sweden for a 3-2 win. Canada had a PP and burned the first 1.5 minutes with Ty Smith and some other guys who just skated around and took shots from 60 fee out. In 15 seconds the second PP unit with Merkley and Lafreniere ends it all. Merkley carried the puck in and made a sweet pass to set up in the Sweden zone, then took the puck at the point, faked a pass to the right and fed a no look pass to Lafreniere all alone in front. He turned, shot and put in the rebound. Merkley is so smart and has such great hands. Someone's going to get a great offensive weapon on the blueline. The PP had been an issue through previous prelim games, regardless of which unit was out there. Lots of forced, extra, passes, and not enough guys willing to shoot. |
|
|
|
Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Apr 24, 2018 13:14:46 GMT -5
I did the simulator ten times and the average position was 5th ... the top three are a cut above the rest, but you'll be getting a good player in the top-7 regardless ... Cheers. Win all likelihood the teams below us get better by drafting ahead of us and the teams ahead of us will stay ahead of us. 31st here we come, or is it 31 hosti here we come. I see no improvement while Bergevin is at the helm. Watching Toronto vs Boston I see how much more skilled, motivated, spirited and organized they are. |
|
|
|
Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 24, 2018 14:11:33 GMT -5
So if we don't move up in the draft on Saturday (yup, it is almost here!), then it sure looks like U18 stars like Boqvist and Wahlstrom would bring an immediate boost to the skillset of our prospect pool. And if we move up.....
Also, lots of guys on display who are likely in the mix for our two early seconds and our two late seconds. We will see if we keep our picks or if Berg decides to go all "Shawsie" on us again.
|
|
|
|
Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 24, 2018 14:15:59 GMT -5
Hard to believe Lafreniere is 2 years away. He is an October birthday so he will be one of the older players in his draft class, but he already sure looks like he is going to be a heck of a player. It is hard to make a mark in these tournaments as an "under-ager". Tell that to Lafreniere, Jack Hughes and others. I look forward to seeing him live at the Hlinka-Gretzky U18 tournament in Edmonton in August. That will be a treat. |
|
|
|
Post by Tankdriver on Apr 24, 2018 14:26:58 GMT -5
I still can't believe there is a greater chance we can go down in the lottery that going up. What an off season it could be with Dahlin and Tavares. Eric Engels has an article on Sportsnet today talking about it.
|
|
|
|
Post by Skilly on Apr 24, 2018 16:11:27 GMT -5
Don’t like fourth. But I have hope. I really think our salvation is in the top three. We can only hope, despite the odds. Weird thing about fourth, is we are the only team that can end up in seven different draft spots. Lovely. Not. I really want to counter mismanagement with a stud in the first and a bunch with all those top 100 picks. I want skill and speed. Tons please. I thought 4th through 12th could end up in seven different draft positions. For instance, 12th could win the lottery, or win the #2 pick, or win the number three pick. If 13th, 14th and 15th win the lotteries, 12th picks 15th If two of those teams win the lottery 12th picks 14th If one of those teams wins, 12th picks 13th So 12th can pick ... 1, 2, 3, 12, 13, 14, 15 |
|
|
|
Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 24, 2018 18:15:25 GMT -5
Don’t like fourth. But I have hope. I really think our salvation is in the top three. We can only hope, despite the odds. Weird thing about fourth, is we are the only team that can end up in seven different draft spots. Lovely. Not. I really want to counter mismanagement with a stud in the first and a bunch with all those top 100 picks. I want skill and speed. Tons please. I thought 4th through 12th could end up in seven different draft positions. For instance, 12th could win the lottery, or win the #2 pick, or win the number three pick. If 13th, 14th and 15th win the lotteries, 12th picks 15th If two of those teams win the lottery 12th picks 14th If one of those teams wins, 12th picks 13th So 12th can pick ... 1, 2, 3, 12, 13, 14, 15 I double checked the chart in a post above. That outlines the odds for every position a team could end up in based on their pre-lottery standings. 4-9 can end up in seven different spots. 10 and up have a zero chance of dropping three spots. I expect the odds showing zero are actually very low numbers that round down to 0.00 when you use two decimal spaces though. So the scenario you outline for the 12th spot is within the realm of possibility, if not probability, especially for spots 10-12. Thanks for that. |
|
|
|
Post by Skilly on Apr 25, 2018 10:25:29 GMT -5
I thought 4th through 12th could end up in seven different draft positions. For instance, 12th could win the lottery, or win the #2 pick, or win the number three pick. If 13th, 14th and 15th win the lotteries, 12th picks 15th If two of those teams win the lottery 12th picks 14th If one of those teams wins, 12th picks 13th So 12th can pick ... 1, 2, 3, 12, 13, 14, 15 I double checked the chart in a post above. That outlines the odds for every position a team could end up in based on their pre-lottery standings. 4-9 can end up in seven different spots. 10 and up have a zero chance of dropping three spots. I expect the odds showing zero are actually very low numbers that round down to 0.00 when you use two decimal spaces though. So the scenario you outline for the 12th spot is within the realm of possibility, if not probability, especially for spots 10-12. Thanks for that. I read the chart to be what happened in the past ... in other words, 10, 11, and 12 have never slid back three spaces yet. The x axis is labeled "Overall pick obtained" which I read to be past history. Or it could be some guys many many many simulation iterations (and not actual probabilities) |
|
|
|
Post by seventeen on Apr 25, 2018 13:03:16 GMT -5
Corey Pronman had a good article in the Athletic today "The consequences of dropping in the draft lottery". there was actually some good news for the Habs out of that article, if Pronman's judgement of this years draft is correct. As we've discussed before, all drafts have tiers, where certain players are judged fairly equally. This year's draft, according to Pronman, has the following tiers.
Tier #1 - Dahlin all by himself
Tier #2 - Three players, Zadina, Svechnikov and Tkachuk (not necessarily in that order)
Tier #3 - the names are debatable, but Pronman has 5 players in that group and then there are 5 players in the next grouping after that. Statistically, the Habs could fall to as low as 7th, which would leave them in the same group they are in at 4th.
That's reassuring in a way, but one also has to keep in mind that every team will have different players in those groupings, at least once the draft extends past the first 4 picks or so, perhaps even before that. In the 2016 draft, Matthews was the consenus 31, Laine #2 and then it really varied depending on the team. Not everyone had Dubois at #3 and the pecking order between 3 and 9 could have gone in any number of combinations.
Some guys think Quinn Hughes should be in that 2nd tier while others have him in the 3rd, so while the risk of dropping down is mitigated by staying in the same tier, the individual teams. judgment plays a big role.
For those of you wondering about trading down and the value of picks and what would it take to move up or down, here's some data for you on research done in 5 consecutive drafts (I don't know which ones) and the values assigned to those picks based on some value called GVT. Again, one must keep in mind that assumptions are always made in generating these values and while the creator tries to come up with something accurate (because it could be worth good money to them), there's plenty of wiggle room in them. Since it's the only thing I've got, though, I present it.
1 18.39359503
2 14.39033534
3 11.48093842
4 9.365049082
5 7.824784305
6 6.702087856
7 5.882302926
8 5.282255418
9 4.841609356
10 4.51659595
These numbers show how much a draft pick value can drop as it goes down the list. To move up to a #4 pick, a team would have to trade a #9 and a #10. We've all seen guys proposing trading two high 2nd rounders to move to a mid 1st round pick. These values would suggest that's not likely to happen. There will be exceptions of course. If one of the tiers is between picks #15 an 40 where the #16 pick may not be that different from pick #40, it could be possible.
So many variations.
|
|
|
|
Post by blny on Apr 25, 2018 13:17:39 GMT -5
Corey Pronman had a good article in the Athletic today "The consequences of dropping in the draft lottery". there was actually some good news for the Habs out of that article, if Pronman's judgement of this years draft is correct. As we've discussed before, all drafts have tiers, where certain players are judged fairly equally. This year's draft, according to Pronman, has the following tiers. Tier #1 - Dahlin all by himself Tier #2 - Three players, Zadina, Svechnikov and Tkachuk (not necessarily in that order) Tier #3 - the names are debatable, but Pronman has 5 players in that group and then there are 5 players in the next grouping after that. Statistically, the Habs could fall to as low as 7th, which would leave them in the same group they are in at 4th. That's reassuring in a way, but one also has to keep in mind that every team will have different players in those groupings, at least once the draft extends past the first 4 picks or so, perhaps even before that. In the 2016 draft, Matthews was the consenus 31, Laine #2 and then it really varied depending on the team. Not everyone had Dubois at #3 and the pecking order between 3 and 9 could have gone in any number of combinations. I still see the order of players selected going Dahlin, Zadina, Svechnikov, and Boqvist. The more I read about Boqvist, the more I think he could be a real sleeper. He dominates his age group and is flying under the Dahlin radar. I'd have no trouble putting Boqvist in that group that is the second tier, and his only negative at this point might be that he takes a little longer to develop (and maybe doesn't come over right away). Central Scouting has Svechnikov, Tkachuk and Zadina 1,2,3 for North American skaters. Zadina dropped a bit most likely due to an early exit for Halifax. Montreal needs goals as much as anything. AFAIC, Svechnikov and Zadina are the best hopes for that among the top 5 prospects. |
|
|
|
Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 26, 2018 7:30:33 GMT -5
The draft lottery will be televised on CBC and Sportsnet between 7:30 and 8:00pm EDT Saturday prior to the game, unveiling spots 15 to 4. The top three will be unveiled in the second intermission of the hockey game that night.
|
|
