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Post by folatre on Jun 10, 2018 17:20:17 GMT -5
I wonder who will replace Ludzik going forward? Montreal was already short-handed covering the OHL in comparison to clubs like the Leafs and the Jets. When Dudley was not renewed, I recall thinking that's fine the hockey ops of the organisation looked to be top heavy and hopefully the money saved on him translates for more scouts, particularly at the amateur level.
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Post by seventeen on Jun 10, 2018 17:57:30 GMT -5
Ludzik was (and still is) the only Ontario scout shown on the Habs website. I doubt they'd show all the part time scouts, but if he was the only full time scout.....
Some teams are relying heavily on data geeks who look at a lot of video (which now seems to be available for many games) and not so much on physical scouts at actual games. I guess they use this data from the games to narrow the focus and then send real scouts to see a fewer number of real players. That's one way to do it. The weakness is that you simply may miss out on other information that helps you make a decision. Data gathering is an easier way to miss out on intangibles. Or if you don't get enough of a sample, a kid can fall through the cracks. Anyway, I'd say a balance of both is required.
BTW, there are no advanced stats guys shown at all on the website. It may be that the Habs contract out that service to someone like Chris Boucher of Sportlogiq. They have a lot of consultants they show on their website, though. I don't think Bergevin trusts those guys. If not it could be because it contradicts his beliefs. I'd sure like to know that they have that information available to them, though.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jun 12, 2018 10:32:49 GMT -5
So, with Washington winning the Cup, all draft positions are locked up for now barring trades. Here is where the Habs officially pick across their 10 picks:
1st round - 3rd
2nd round - 35th, 38th (CHI), 56th (TOR), 62nd (WSH)
3rd round - 66th
4th round - 97th (MTL-LA-MTL), 102nd (EDM), 122nd (WPG)
5th round - 128th
I have not completed my mock draft yet, but have been preparing a list of guys the Habs could be interested in at each of their 10 draft picks. I have to admit, guessing what might happen with those two early second round picks is tough given how big a group of players there likely is between around picks 15-40 or so. So much will depend on individual team draft boards, but I can imagine a number of guys expected to go in the second will jump into the mid to late first, and vice versa. While this happens every year, it is really noticeable this year. This draft has some depth through the second round for sure.
It is also a very interesting draft for Russian players. I think there is a lot of talent with this year's draft eligible Russian players, at both forward and defense. I like a lot of the Russian draft eligible guys this year, including those still playing in Russia. If they do drop as often they do, this could be a real opportunity to get a guy who has much better talent than the position in which he is available to draft. With lots of picks (10 is a lot!!) and with TT mentioning that he is after skill and speed, there are a number of Russian players who fit that description and will likely fall due to the old "Russian factor".
I really wonder how valid the Russian factor still is. It is interesting to note that the Habs have picked two Russian born players with first round picks in two of the last four drafts (Sergachev and Scherbak). However, both guys were playing junior hockey in the CHL. The last Russian draft pick who was playing in Russia goes back to the 4th round of the 2009 draft with Alexander Avtsin. He and the two previous draft picks out of Russia drafted by the Habs did not play a game with the big club, although they were all mid round picks (one 4th rounder and two 5th rounders - so the odds were not great of them making it anyway).
In this day of social media and instant access, I would expect that Russian teenagers are much more globally aware and connected than they were back in the day. I can only imagine how most of them have enjoyed watching their countryman and superstar Ovie hoisting the Cup and going on a massive bender worthy of some frat boy movie. Also, the financial appeal of the KHL has tarnished some, although it still is likely appealing for guys that are just bubble or middling players in the NHL/AHL. I think you will always lose those guys to going back to the comforts of home and a decent tax-free salary.
It is interesting that the Habs are holding a special European combine for players this year. With 10 picks, TT and team need to assess a lot more players than usual. You also want to balance out your CHL and non-CHL draft picks strictly from a contract management perspective. Any guys drafted from Europe and going the NCAA route can wait a bit longer before the Habs have to sign them up. Imagine a scenario where all 10 guys this year are CHL draftees and the Habs have to make a decision on whether or not to sign them all within two years. It is just not going to happen. With only 50 NHL contracts available, turning that many players over in a single year is pretty well impossible. The other thing is there is a lot of good talent with European-based draft eligible kids, so you need to cast that net wider anyway.
I can't believe Round 1 is only 10 days away now. Bring it on!!
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jun 12, 2018 12:06:05 GMT -5
Here's the only criticism I've read of Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C/W, Assat (SM-Liiga) ... Like his countryman Kupari, Kotkaniemi spent his draft year playing in Finland's top circuit. Only difference is Kotkaniemi significantly out-produced him. He's a mature playmaker with world-class vision, but his first-step quickness at this stage of his development is average. |
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jun 12, 2018 12:09:09 GMT -5
Here's an assessment on Brady Tkachuk that may contradict what some other 'pundits' are saying about his foot speed ... (Ranking) 6. Brady Tkachuk, LW, Boston University (Hockey East) His last name may be synonymous with hard-nosed play, goal scoring and pugilism, but this power winger has great vision, an incredibly soft set of hands and anticipates puck travel better than any of his draft-eligible peers. Brady is both quicker and more disciplined than brother Matthew or father Keith. |
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Post by seventeen on Jun 12, 2018 12:56:52 GMT -5
Like his countryman Kupari, Kotkaniemi spent his draft year playing in Finland's top circuit. Only difference is Kotkaniemi significantly out-produced him. He's a mature playmaker with world-class vision, but his first-step quickness at this stage of his development is average. To provide some context, the same comments were made about Kopitar and Barkov, regarding quickness. Their skating was also considered ok but not elite in their draft years. BTW, I will predict that both Kotkaniemi and Barrett Hayton will be drafted before 12 and 13 where the Sporting News has them. |
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Post by Cranky on Jun 12, 2018 13:46:11 GMT -5
Like his countryman Kupari, Kotkaniemi spent his draft year playing in Finland's top circuit. Only difference is Kotkaniemi significantly out-produced him. He's a mature playmaker with world-class vision, but his first-step quickness at this stage of his development is average. To provide some context, the same comments were made about Kopitar and Barkov, regarding quickness. Their skating was also considered ok but not elite in their draft years. BTW, I will predict that both Kotkaniemi and Barrett Hayton will be drafted before 12 and 13 where the Sporting News has them. If they are available near 12th and 13th, then I see the Habs making an offer for that position. Or both. I would certainly give up lots of second to get those spots. In fact, if they are available to the Islanders, Bergy better pucker up. |
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2018 Draft
Jun 12, 2018 14:04:27 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by franko on Jun 12, 2018 14:04:27 GMT -5
To provide some context, the same comments were made about Kopitar and Barkov, regarding quickness. Their skating was also considered ok but not elite in their draft years. BTW, I will predict that both Kotkaniemi and Barrett Hayton will be drafted before 12 and 13 where the Sporting News has them. If they are available near 12th and 13th, then I see the Habs making an offer for that position. Or both. I would certainly give up lots of second to get those spots. In fact, if they are available to the Islanders, Bergy better pucker up. Bah, he'll trade down. |
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Post by Cranky on Jun 12, 2018 15:02:59 GMT -5
Well deserved Bergy bashing aside, all trades have to be done up front at the draft. I can see a scenario where Bergy trades Zadina for the 10th and 11th spots with the Islanders. But that would have to be where two high end centers are available. It's tricky. He would have to trade Zadina AFTER he drafts him, something that I don't remember seeing in the draft. Maybe AFTER the draft and with an pre-arranged agreement that Islanders take two centers Montreal wants. All of this is doable but the chance off all the right circumstance aligning AND having the right trading partners and interest aligning is....TINY. |
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Post by folatre on Jun 13, 2018 18:48:19 GMT -5
Based on historical figures that Scott Cullen compiled last summer regarding the value of respective first round picks, I would say #3 overall for #11 and 12 is not quite enough from Montreal's perspective. I think the Islanders would have to add a bit more.
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Post by Tankdriver on Jun 13, 2018 21:53:06 GMT -5
Based on historical figures that Scott Cullen compiled last summer regarding the value of respective first round picks, I would say #3 overall for #11 and 12 is not quite enough from Montreal's perspective. I think the Islanders would have to add a bit more. Agree. Sportsnet has a good article on top 10 draft picks being traded. Just dropping 2 spots was bringing back a handful. My plan: Pick Zadina and package Patcioretty or Galchenyuk, Shaw or whatever plus a second rounder or 2 and get another pick (say 6 from Detroit) |
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Post by seventeen on Jun 14, 2018 0:01:35 GMT -5
By spreading enough disinformation (the Habs will select Zadina, no they'll select Tkachuk, no they'll pick Quinn Hughes), they could get a team just below them who covets one of those 3 guys to ante up their own pick, plus something else and if it works out, the Habs get who they'd really like (say a centre like Kotkaniemi), plus a good prospect. Let's say it's Arizona and they really want Hughes, but think we may pick him, they might work out a deal where we select Hughes and if Ottawa doesn't take Kotkaniemi, we trade Hughes and Chicago's 2nd rounder to Arizona for their pick plus Max Domi and we take Kotkaniemi. Or maybe Patches factors in somehow and the deal gets bigger. That's not taking too big a risk. Or say Ottawa really wants Hughes, Tkachuk or Zadina because they're losing Karlsson and/or Hoffman, we swap picks, and acquire Alex Forementon or Drake Batherson, or we enlarge it and get Logan Brown instead.
Lots of possibilities if one is willing to take a risk and is happy with Kotkaniemi rather than Zadina, Tkachuk or Hughes. At least if the deal falls apart, you still end up with a pretty good player as there isn't a huge difference between all those guys.
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Post by seventeen on Jun 14, 2018 0:08:05 GMT -5
Based on historical figures that Scott Cullen compiled last summer regarding the value of respective first round picks, I would say #3 overall for #11 and 12 is not quite enough from Montreal's perspective. I think the Islanders would have to add a bit more. Agree. Sportsnet has a good article on top 10 draft picks being traded. Just dropping 2 spots was bringing back a handful. My plan: Pick Zadina and package Patcioretty or Galchenyuk, Shaw or whatever plus a second rounder or 2 and get another pick (say 6 from Detroit) Struggling with that. If I could end up with Zadina AND Kotkaniemi out of this draft I'd be quite pleased. Galchenyuk would at minimum, be the price for the #4, but I think adding Patches is too expensive. Chuck and Shaw, no problem, even if we throw in the #38 pick, but I'm not sure Detroit does that deal. They really need defense. Chuck, Shaw and Josh Brook or Cale Fleury or Scott Walford might be more palatable. It's really tough for a team to go through a difficult season and then trade away the plum that they didn't work for all year long. But, Chucky is pretty good and still young, so it might fly. That still gives us the option of moving Patches for another pick. Getting 3 picks in the first round would be awesome! |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jun 14, 2018 3:02:17 GMT -5
We have to be careful about over-reaction deals right now. Is this a pending contender or a team needing a full rebuild? Our top guys are on the cusp. Even if Berg does not believe in windows, a proper GM would look at both Price and Weber in terms of two options: now or in the future. The future does make a ton of sense right now. Jack Johnson and Milan Lucic make no sense, unless the intent is getting so slow that we draft awesome next year. The other possibility is to tinker and see if we are closer than we think. I still believe this gets us a good centre in next year’s draft.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jun 14, 2018 6:42:09 GMT -5
Like his countryman Kupari, Kotkaniemi spent his draft year playing in Finland's top circuit. Only difference is Kotkaniemi significantly out-produced him. He's a mature playmaker with world-class vision, but his first-step quickness at this stage of his development is average. To provide some context, the same comments were made about Kopitar and Barkov, regarding quickness. Their skating was also considered ok but not elite in their draft years. BTW, I will predict that both Kotkaniemi and Barrett Hayton will be drafted before 12 and 13 where the Sporting News has them. I've been hearing nothing but glowing reports on Brady Tkachuk ... according to Pierre McGuire he's not the finisher Filip Zadina is, but he's projected to have a long NHL career ( TSN) and he helps the team win in a lot of other different ways ... I guess it comes down to what Trevor Timmins determines what the team needs more; goals or character ... Cheers. |
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Post by BadCompany on Jun 14, 2018 8:25:51 GMT -5
I've been hearing nothing but glowing reports on Brady Tkachuk ... according to Pierre McGuire he's not the finisher Filip Zadina is, but he's projected to have a long NHL career ( TSN) and he helps the team win in a lot of other different ways ... I guess it comes down to what Trevor Timmins determines what the team needs more; goals or character ... Cheers. McGuire said he would take Tkachuk at #3. |
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jun 14, 2018 8:27:50 GMT -5
I've been hearing nothing but glowing reports on Brady Tkachuk ... according to Pierre McGuire he's not the finisher Filip Zadina is, but he's projected to have a long NHL career ( TSN) and he helps the team win in a lot of other different ways ... I guess it comes down to what Trevor Timmins determines what the team needs more; goals or character ... Cheers. McGuire said he would take Tkachuk at #3. Would you do this, BC ... Cheers. |
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Post by BadCompany on Jun 14, 2018 8:43:03 GMT -5
McGuire said he would take Tkachuk at #3. Would you do this, BC ... Cheers. I really don't know. Much is being made of his lack of production, but he's always playing against older kids/men. He was dominant at the World Juniors when playing against kids his own age, but how much of that is because he's 6'3, 200+ lbs already? He checks every box in terms of what you would want in a player; skill, skating ability, size, character, bloodlines... just not the goals. People point to his brother Matthew, and say that he had much better numbers at the same age in the USHL... but Matthew played on a pretty stacked USHL team. There were EIGHT eventual first round picks on that team, including Austin Matthews. On Brady's team there is one current 1st round pick, and perhaps four others that will go in the first round this year (Tkachuk himself, Wahlstrom, Farabee and Hughes), with no Matthews-like talent in there. So does that factor into the point difference between the two brothers? Having said that, I wonder if it will be similar to the Staal brothers... Eric was a high pick and started putting up huge numbers almost immediately. Did that influence Jordan's ranking? Jordan is a good player, who has had a very good NHL career... but he's no Eric. Will that be the same comparison ten years from now? I'd be leery because I have a hard time believing that somebody can just acquire goal-scoring ability, and to me he is a bigger risk than say Zadina. But what do I know? EDIT: To muddy the waters further, who wouldn't be happy with a 6'3, 215lbs version of Brendan Gallagher? |
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Post by folatre on Jun 14, 2018 9:30:47 GMT -5
Good observation regarding the composition of the US teams. And I agree that Tkachuk looks like a pretty complete player, so in isolation he does not look like a risky pick.
To some extent I think McGuire is cherry-picking with the whole issue of a college freshman competing against older players. Tkachuk is an early autumn birthday so he is not much younger than many second year university students. Also, he is physically bigger than most kids who play NCAA hockey so he was not simultaneously confronted with being younger and smaller the way so many kids are when they start their junior hockey odyssey. And last, given his long-standing participation on the USHL youth teams, by age 18 or 18 1/2 Tkachuk probably played more hockey and received more coaching than most NCAA players 20 years old. So I guess I take a little exception to some pundits implying that Tkschuk some green sapling.
I come back to the last point BC makes, high end sniping is a natural gift; it is not really learned. Tkachuk only scored 8 goals on 131 shots (that is under 7 percent). If the premise in well stacked draft like this one is that a club picking third should get an offensive game-changer, then Tkachuk looks like a riskier pick.
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Post by BadCompany on Jun 14, 2018 9:37:52 GMT -5
Based on historical figures that Scott Cullen compiled last summer regarding the value of respective first round picks, I would say #3 overall for #11 and 12 is not quite enough from Montreal's perspective. I think the Islanders would have to add a bit more. There is an interesting draft chart out there, that apparently some teams (Tampa most notably) use. Much like that famous football chart. I don't know how accurate it is, but it's out there: statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdfI could be wrong, but I don’t see a trade-down scenario that would make much sense for both teams: To Ottawa, 4th overall. Perhaps, but they’d have to really like Zadina to do this, and the only draft currency they have is the 22nd overall, from Pittsburgh. They have no 2nd or 3rd rounder this year, and no 1st next year. They are a disaster of a franchise at the moment so I don’t think it would be wise for them to give up that extra pick just to move up one spot. To Arizona, 5th overall. There has been some chatter about Arizona, but again I don’t see it. They only have the one 1st rounder, and only one 2nd as well. I suppose they could trade next year’s 2nd (and really, we have too many seconds this year as it is so that is what we should be asking for) but their GM is a numbers guy, who probably doesn’t see the value in doing that. So you’d have to start talking about their pick and a player, which is too complicated for me. To Detroit, 6th overall. They need centers and defensemen. They are perfectly positioned to get either one of those at 6th. They do however, have draft capital to move, in the form of Vegas’s 1st rounder, two 2nds, and three 3rds this year, along with extra 2nd and 3rd round picks next year. If they REALLY like a player, perhaps. To Vancouver, 7th overall. They have no extra picks, other than their own. Meaning that there is no second 1st rounder for us to acquire. To Chicago, 8th overall. They have Nashville’s 1st rounder… but no 2nd. So any deal would probably involve us throwing in one of our 2nds, with perhaps players going each way. Too complicated, though I think Chicago would be one of the teams looking to move up. To NYR, 9th overall. THIS is where it gets interesting. In my mind this would be the most likely trading partner, on draft day. The Rangers have three 1st rounders this year (their own, Boston’s, and Tampa’s), two 2nd rounders, and two 3rd rounders. They already have two 2nd rounders next year, which as I said is what we should be looking at anyways. There is that 50 contract limit to consider, so you want to space out your picks a bit. Dropping to 9th still keeps the Habs within “that tier” of prospects that most scouts think are separated from the rest of the round, though they would forfeit the ability to pick which one they like. Perhaps Kotkaniemi falls to 9th… but perhaps he doesn’t. Which would mean that might “have” to take a right-shooting defenseman, which is probably last on their organizational needs. But if you are indeed looking long-term, which is what you should be doing at the draft… For what it’s worth that draft value chart would suggest that the 3rd overall is worth the 9th, and either of the 26th or 28th. So in terms of the stars aligning, this would be the most likely, in my opinion. But would we want to do that? To Edmonton, 10th overall. Like Vancouver, they have no extra picks. So then you start talking players, and it gets all crazy. To NYI, 11th and 12th overall. Using that chart, getting both picks would require us to add in one of the 2nds. Not a huge deal, but would we really want to fall that far down? Good for organizational depth, but really hurts your chances at getting a superstar. Unless you start adding in players, I don't see a likely deal happening on draft day. I could be wrong of course, but it just doesn't seem likely to me. |
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jun 14, 2018 10:12:18 GMT -5
Would you do this, BC ... Cheers. I really don't know. Much is being made of his lack of production, but he's always playing against older kids/men. He was dominant at the World Juniors when playing against kids his own age, but how much of that is because he's 6'3, 200+ lbs already? He checks every box in terms of what you would want in a player; skill, skating ability, size, character, bloodlines... just not the goals. People point to his brother Matthew, and say that he had much better numbers at the same age in the USHL... but Matthew played on a pretty stacked USHL team. There were EIGHT eventual first round picks on that team, including Austin Matthews. On Brady's team there is one current 1st round pick, and perhaps four others that will go in the first round this year (Tkachuk himself, Wahlstrom, Farabee and Hughes), with no Matthews-like talent in there. So does that factor into the point difference between the two brothers? Having said that, I wonder if it will be similar to the Staal brothers... Eric was a high pick and started putting up huge numbers almost immediately. Did that influence Jordan's ranking? Jordan is a good player, who has had a very good NHL career... but he's no Eric. Will that be the same comparison ten years from now? I'd be leery because I have a hard time believing that somebody can just acquire goal-scoring ability, and to me he is a bigger risk than say Zadina. But what do I know? EDIT: To muddy the waters further, who wouldn't be happy with a 6'3, 215lbs version of Brendan Gallagher? Why I asked was because, if what Filip Zadina says is true; the Habs are looking for centres and defencemen, then it wouldn't surprise me to see them draft Adam Boqvist, D with the #3 pick ... he's an offensive dynamo, but he needs polishing in his own end ... he sounds more like Erik Karlsson than Rasmus Dahlin does in that aspect ... that said, I know Marc Bergevin said he's leaning towards keeping the pick, but I'd also like to know what he's going to to with Max Pacioretty ... if he get's a 1st for Pacioretty then it really becomes interesting ... and if he has 2 x 1st-rd, it also wouldn't surprise me to see him trade down from the #3 if he thinks the players he wants will be there ... if he needs centres I thought about the two Finns, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, L/C and Rasmus Kupari, R/C ... mind you, there are a few centres rated a tad higher than one or both of them; Oliver Wahlstrom, #5, is listed as a C according to the ISS Rankings, as is Brady Tkachuk at #4 ... to that, I suspect if Bergevin trades down it will be hard to lay off a local kid like Joe Veleno, C ... Veleno is ranked #10 overall and the local fan base would immediately identify with him ... having said all of that, I really think Bergevin has to go with the best player available and, IMHO, that would be Zadina ... I know, for the most part, the team needs more character (not just character, but the right kind of character) but they also need goals ... interesting times ... Cheers. |
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jun 14, 2018 10:49:58 GMT -5
Like his countryman Kupari, Kotkaniemi spent his draft year playing in Finland's top circuit. Only difference is Kotkaniemi significantly out-produced him. He's a mature playmaker with world-class vision, but his first-step quickness at this stage of his development is average. To provide some context, the same comments were made about Kopitar and Barkov, regarding quickness. Their skating was also considered ok but not elite in their draft years. BTW, I will predict that both Kotkaniemi and Barrett Hayton will be drafted before 12 and 13 where the Sporting News has them. I used "The Sporting News" rankings a few times, but here's the final ISS rankings ... they have Barrett Hayton at #12 and Jesperi Kotkaniemi at #16 ... BTW, what makes me a tad leery about taking Brady Tkachuk over Filip Zadina, is that it kind of reminds me of 1997 NHL draft where we took a 'proven power forward' in Jason Ward, only to have Ottawa take Marian Hossa with the very next pick ... Ward had a good chance at making the team one year until he got hit in the face with a puck ... the laceration kept him out for a prolonged period of time and when he could never get back in the lineup on a regular basis after that ... Hossa's story is well known ... Cheers. |
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jun 15, 2018 7:26:16 GMT -5
Ferraro: Zadina is the best scorer in the draft link |
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Post by franko on Jun 15, 2018 8:02:02 GMT -5
Ferraro: Zadina is the best scorer in the draft but does he have character and the right attitude? |
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Post by blny on Jun 15, 2018 8:21:01 GMT -5
Ferraro: Zadina is the best scorer in the draft linkI'm still convinced he's the right pick, if he's there at 3. This team needs goals too. He can score them in droves, from all over the ice. Max is 29, and aside from Galchenyuk there's no legit heir apparent. Zadina's ceiling is higher than any center in this draft, and I don't think you pick a #2 center over a #1 scoring winger capable of 40 or more goals. Poehling and Ikonen, picked last year, add to the center depth enough that I think you draft the bpa. Zadina is that by a fair margin. |
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Post by seventeen on Jun 15, 2018 13:03:14 GMT -5
Ferraro: Zadina is the best scorer in the draft linkI'm still convinced he's the right pick, if he's there at 3. This team needs goals too. He can score them in droves, from all over the ice. Max is 29, and aside from Galchenyuk there's no legit heir apparent. Zadina's ceiling is higher than any center in this draft, and I don't think you pick a #2 center over a #1 scoring winger capable of 40 or more goals. Poehling and Ikonen, picked last year, add to the center depth enough that I think you draft the bpa. Zadina is that by a fair margin. That's the key point and I get the feeling a lot of scouts feel Kotkaniemi is a #1 centre, not a 2. That muddies the decision. |
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Post by seventeen on Jun 15, 2018 13:03:37 GMT -5
Ferraro: Zadina is the best scorer in the draft linkHe should know. |
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Post by blny on Jun 15, 2018 13:12:26 GMT -5
I'm still convinced he's the right pick, if he's there at 3. This team needs goals too. He can score them in droves, from all over the ice. Max is 29, and aside from Galchenyuk there's no legit heir apparent. Zadina's ceiling is higher than any center in this draft, and I don't think you pick a #2 center over a #1 scoring winger capable of 40 or more goals. Poehling and Ikonen, picked last year, add to the center depth enough that I think you draft the bpa. Zadina is that by a fair margin. That's the key point and I get the feeling a lot of scouts feel Kotkaniemi is a #1 centre, not a 2. That muddies the decision. There are people that think ROR is a #1 center simply because he's the best on his team. #1 on Buffalo doesn't make you a #1 center. I could be wrong (it's been known to happen  ), but the names going in the first round seem like two-way guys to me. That nice, but I think they'll be #2s at best. |
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Post by Cranky on Jun 15, 2018 15:36:55 GMT -5
To provide some context, the same comments were made about Kopitar and Barkov, regarding quickness. Their skating was also considered ok but not elite in their draft years. BTW, I will predict that both Kotkaniemi and Barrett Hayton will be drafted before 12 and 13 where the Sporting News has them. I used "The Sporting News" rankings a few times, but here's the final ISS rankings ... they have Barrett Hayton at #12 and Jesperi Kotkaniemi at #16 ... BTW, what makes me a tad leery about taking Brady Tkachuk over Filip Zadina, is that it kind of reminds me of 1997 NHL draft where we took a 'proven power forward' in Jason Ward, only to have Ottawa take Marian Hossa with the very next pick ... Ward had a good chance at making the team one year until he got hit in the face with a puck ... the laceration kept him out for a prolonged period of time and when he could never get back in the lineup on a regular basis after that ... Hossa's story is well known ... Cheers. The Ward comparison scares the heck out of me. In one of these threads I made a post of players using their size to intimidate when they are at the junior level and then laying eggs at the NHL level. I'd go further back then Ward and all the way to Chad Kilger who everybody and his donkey thought was the second coming of Messier. EPIC FAIL. The lack of scoring is frightening. Juniors can lean many things but scoring reflexes and ice vision is not one of them. It can improve, but I can't remember anyone learing how to become a consistent 40-50 goal sniper. Even a 30-40 goal scorer is gold. Which also brings us to Patches. |
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Post by Cranky on Jun 15, 2018 15:56:11 GMT -5
Would you do this, BC ... Cheers. I really don't know. Much is being made of his lack of production, but he's always playing against older kids/men. He was dominant at the World Juniors when playing against kids his own age, but how much of that is because he's 6'3, 200+ lbs already? He checks every box in terms of what you would want in a player; skill, skating ability, size, character, bloodlines... just not the goals. People point to his brother Matthew, and say that he had much better numbers at the same age in the USHL... but Matthew played on a pretty stacked USHL team. There were EIGHT eventual first round picks on that team, including Austin Matthews. On Brady's team there is one current 1st round pick, and perhaps four others that will go in the first round this year (Tkachuk himself, Wahlstrom, Farabee and Hughes), with no Matthews-like talent in there. So does that factor into the point difference between the two brothers? Having said that, I wonder if it will be similar to the Staal brothers... Eric was a high pick and started putting up huge numbers almost immediately. Did that influence Jordan's ranking? Jordan is a good player, who has had a very good NHL career... but he's no Eric. Will that be the same comparison ten years from now? I'd be leery because I have a hard time believing that somebody can just acquire goal-scoring ability, and to me he is a bigger risk than say Zadina. But what do I know? EDIT: To muddy the waters further, who wouldn't be happy with a 6'3, 215lbs version of Brendan Gallagher? I think you and I are on the same page going way back to Ward's time and Hamilton. I find that way too many people, maybe even professional scouts tend to measure inches too closely. I can't see any difference between a few inches. If Zadina is a 6 footer and 200 pounds and Tkachuk is 6'3 and 200 pounds, I don't see why 3 inches would change much if everything else is equal. Where size makes a big difference is when there is six inches AND weight spread. Ghallagher is an exception but then, I read somewhere that he's in t he range of 3-4 percent body fat so even if he's 180 pounds, he's in the 200 pound range of average NHL players. Another thing I noticed going through the KHL and other Euro leagues. There are tons of players in the 5'8" and 5'10" and 170 pounds that are scoring machines in those leagues and never appear in the NHL. Which on the surface sounds like I'm arguing against myself but no, the point is that if a player is within the average of NHL size, which is about 6' and 200 pounds, then a few inches taller means little. I think that it starts to become a factor if we are talking at least 6" 4" and over 225 pounds. Back to Tkachuk, his drafting position wasn't a big deal until we get to the draft. All of a sudden, he's number 3? The man is becoming a myth right before our eyes.....or a lot of misdirection and propaganda. I would have all kinds of red flags up if there was ANY question of goal scoring ability. Period. |
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), but the names going in the first round seem like two-way guys to me. That nice, but I think they'll be #2s at best.