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Post by folatre on Mar 20, 2020 19:35:27 GMT -5
I am moving over the following post from the Shane Wright thread, which I did not mean to steer away from Shane Wright (apologies, Dis):
Bergevin's Aho offer, perhaps a disingenuous PR move or perhaps overly dependent on faulty info fed to him by Aho's agent, was weak. However, I really think that clubs with elite kids, like Dubois and Barzal, about to enter their prime are going to more determined than ever to hang onto those rare commodities. And even a much bolder offer than the one Bergevin tabled would be matched.
Having said that, the RFA offer sheet mechanism could be a good tool for the Habs to get a player or two who help change the complexion of the roster. Just spitballing here in self-isolation, but what about offer sheeting Brendan Lemieux and Sammy Blais?
The Rangers are cap stressed. If Montreal offered Lemieux 4 years/$12 million, I think it is likely New York would not match because he is not a core guy. It would only cost Bergevin a second round pick. In my estimation, acquiring a big body 24 year old who hits, agitates, and does not look out of place with skilled linemates for a second round pick is a steal.
The Blues are seriously cap stressed too. Blais (age 23) is another big body winger who can skate, forecheck, bang, and kill penalties. St. Louis likes him but would not stand in the way of a four years/$8 million offer. This offer would only cost the Habs a third round pick.
No, these guys are not offensive stalwarts but they are already proven NHL players who are in the age group that the Habs need more of. Also, they are heavy players and Montreal's forward corps is simply too small with too many redundant pieces.
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Post by seventeen on Mar 21, 2020 0:27:07 GMT -5
I like the general idea, but I'm not crazy about either of Lemieux or Blais. I think you can find those guys without too much trouble. Paying a Lemieus $3MM a year seems steep to me, though I like his PIM totals and that type of guy would be very useful, but hopefully a better scorer than .31 ppg like Brendan.
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Post by folatre on Mar 21, 2020 19:18:03 GMT -5
Jejeje, seventeen, now I will double down with another guy you may not be crazy about.
Josh Anderson is one year away from being an UFA and Columbus seems convinced that he has been angling to get out of there for some time now. Assuming Montreal could agree to a deal with Anderson (agent is Darren Ferris so it could be tricky), I would be trade Byron for him.
Don’t get me wrong, Byron is a very useful winger with great speed, he kills penalties and he can slot in different places in the lineup at even strength. My reasoning starts with the fact that Byron is a full five years older than Anderson. And the reality is that the two players’ productivity is basically the same (Anderson .43 ppg and Byron .41 ppg) and my thinking revolves around which player has a higher ceiling and which player will actually produce more over the next 3-5 years. And, last but not least, Anderson is 16 cm taller and 29 kg heavier. Columbus should like Byron’s character, cost certainty and relatively affordable contract in dollars (he is only owed $9.6 million in real money over the next three years with no signing bonuses in the equation). However, Kekalainen is a smart guy and he may perceive that swapping out the younger player with a higher ceiling could favor the Habs too much to pull the trigger on a simple player for player trade. For me Anderson could be a regular 23-25 goal guy and I would add a third round pick (preferably Washington’s) to help get this done. Then there is the question of his contract. Well, guys such as Ferland and Kassian come to mind. Anderson’s career offensive numbers are better than those two so my guess is that he would probably come in around 4 years/$17 or 18 million with Molson splashing out some of the grand total in the form of signing bonus money.
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Post by Tankdriver on Mar 30, 2020 11:38:48 GMT -5
I just saw the RFA list for this summer and I'd be tempted to go the offer sheet route again. There s Barzal, Dubois and Sergachev that would tempt me. I wouldn't go 4 firsts deep for them, but the tier just below that maybe? I think Sergachev would be the easiest to get back since Tampa is pretty maxed to the cap. I can't see the Islanders giving up Barzal and the blue jackets have tons of cap space. So is time to play mean again this summer?
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Mar 30, 2020 13:19:39 GMT -5
We need to look for younger players. 10 year olds that will be productive in year 19 of Bergevins five year plan. Does anyone else see the problem with this youth reasoning. The problem is Bergevin.
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Post by UberCranky on Mar 30, 2020 16:01:40 GMT -5
I have THREE WORDS for all of you.
Pierre Luc Dubois.
Four 1st rounders is fine by me.
That is the way.
I have spoken.
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Post by folatre on Mar 31, 2020 17:19:49 GMT -5
Come one Cranky, jeje, you are being awfully demanding.
Seriously, though, I would certainly not have a problem with Bergevin trying to go big after Barzal or Dubois (say, 7 years/$77 million). But I just would not carry high hopes that New York or Columbus would decide not to match. First line centres entering their prime years are too valuable to lose to an offer sheet.
It would be more viable to attempt to trade for an elite young talent than to grab one via the offer sheet mechanism. For example, Barzal has made a few indirect comments over the last 12 months about how it would be nice to see GMs making offer sheets and how he does not know anything about when the Islanders and his agent will make progress on a deal, so knowing Lamoriello it would not be crazy to imagine that he is not thrilled with Barzal's public musings. And thus it is not impossible that Lou could contemplate moving the kid for a big package that includes win now pieces since the Islanders have a bunch of main guys in their late 20s.
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Post by folatre on Mar 31, 2020 20:29:15 GMT -5
This is potentially interesting news for Montreal in the effort to break up the status quo and start remaking a roster that has clearly not been good enough to do anything for the last five seasons. According to Pierre Lebrun on TSN 1050 today, based on what he is hearing he really thinks a best case scenario for the players would be work with the owners on a long-term deal that accounts for the massive revenue fallout that the Covid-19 pandemic forces the league to starkly face.
Get this. Lebrun believes that it is entirely realistic for the league and the NHLPA to sign off on a $81.5 million cap for 2020-21 and a $81.5 figure for 2021-22 and yet another $81.5 million ceiling for 2022-23. On the surface, it sounds like the players (in particular the current and soon to be RFAs/UFAs) are taking the shaft here; but in reality, looking closer, it is probably not a bad outcome for the players given the fact that coming up a billion dollars short in revenue this season would otherwise mean the cap as directed by the 50/50 split specified in the CBA would have to fall precipitously next season and would likely not recover to current levels for another 3-4 seasons.
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Post by Scotty D on Apr 1, 2020 15:16:27 GMT -5
We need to look for younger players. 10 year olds that will be productive in year 19 of Bergevins five year plan. Does anyone else see the problem with this youth reasoning. The problem is Bergevin. ok first i don't trust bargain bin to get it right but wouldn't it be quite the turn of events assuming the sheet doesn't cost us too much. ok too much more than it already has ........
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Post by UberCranky on Apr 1, 2020 16:30:30 GMT -5
Come one Cranky, jeje, you are being awfully demanding. Seriously, though, I would certainly not have a problem with Bergevin trying to go big after Barzal or Dubois (say, 7 years/$77 million). But I just would not carry high hopes that New York or Columbus would decide not to match. First line centres entering their prime years are too valuable to lose to an offer sheet. It would be more viable to attempt to trade for an elite young talent than to grab one via the offer sheet mechanism. For example, Barzal has made a few indirect comments over the last 12 months about how it would be nice to see GMs making offer sheets and how he does not know anything about when the Islanders and his agent will make progress on a deal, so knowing Lamoriello it would not be crazy to imagine that he is not thrilled with Barzal's public musings. And thus it is not impossible that Lou could contemplate moving the kid for a big package that includes win now pieces since the Islanders have a bunch of main guys in their late 20s. We don't have the asset base to trade, so unless we win the loterry adn we get the top pick AND add lots of assets, we wont get one of those two. As long as Bbinz is serious and offers close to max money, I'll give him credit for REALLY trying this time. None of this half butt offer like Aho.
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Post by folatre on Apr 1, 2020 21:57:04 GMT -5
In particular, I do not believe that Columbus would be interested in any package that Bergevin could conceivably put together. I mean, let's face it, Dubois is a low maintenance young star who fits their hockey philosophy perfectly so what in the world would prompt them to let him go. Even if they can only manage to get him signed for three years because of money issues, it still keeps them competitive and most importantly it sends the right message to their other young superstars (Jones and Werenski).
Barzal would not exactly be easy to acquire via trade, but in his case I believe the door is at least slightly ajar. However, Lamoriello would not accept a package of futures or futures plus a couple of above average NHL players sprinkled in. I wonder if, in the event that Barzal digs in and rejects a contract equivalent to the one Matthew Tkachuk signed, the Islanders would be receptive to something like Domi (extended on at least a four year contract), Norlinder, and St. Louis’ 2020 second rounder. By the way, I really like Domi and I would rather trade Drouin or Tatar but as the saying goes you have to give to get.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Apr 2, 2020 14:41:21 GMT -5
I have THREE WORDS for all of you. Pierre Luc Dubois. Four 1st rounders is fine by me. That is the way. I have spoken. First rounders are lottery picks with Bergevin as GM. We need more players like Drouin in todays game. He can stay six feet away from all other players during the covid crisis.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Apr 2, 2020 18:56:40 GMT -5
I have THREE WORDS for all of you. Pierre Luc Dubois. Four 1st rounders is fine by me. That is the way. I have spoken. Not sure that going without a first round pick for 5 years is the way to build a Stanley cup winner. Dubois doesn’t have any rings and he is only one man in a team sport. Very year there is one player in the draft that stands out, sometimes two. Big drop off after that. We keep getting drop offs. This year after Byfield there is a drop. Very good guys 3 to 8 but no superstars.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Apr 3, 2020 22:49:44 GMT -5
Rfa’s are expensive in picks. Better to chase free agents like Tavares when they are available. As long as Bergevin is here we are not attractive to free agents
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Post by folatre on Apr 4, 2020 10:24:04 GMT -5
The cost of an elite RFA in draft capital (four first round picks) sounds expensive at least on the surface of it. However, if you can get a star 22-23 year old first line centre locked up for what promise to be the most productive seven years of his career, then giving up four first round picks does not sound like bad business.
For that very reason I do not believe the team getting raided is going to trust they will be better off with four unknown kids who best case will trickle into their system one at a time beginning a full year after they lose their proven young star.
The other problem that I see, even if Bergevin would get aggressive and accept surrendering four first round picks, is that he seems to feel strongly about the Habs own internal salary structure and it would probably be contrary to his value system to pay Dubois or Barzal $11 million a season when guys he considers living legends (we may disagree but this is he how feels about them) like Price and Weber are considerably lower.
The Aho situation was case in point. It was not only that the compensation for Carolina was laughable (1 first rounder, 1 second, 1 third), but it was also a case of Bergevin executing a strategy that entailed giving Aho a contract that Bergevin actually felt that Aho is worth and that fit okay with the Habs internal salary structure. In other words, it was not simply Bergevin's risk aversion to giving up four fourth round draft picks; it was also his unwillingness to "overpay" Aho.
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Post by habsorbed on Apr 4, 2020 12:31:42 GMT -5
We've debated many times the wisdom of giving up four 1st rounders for a stud RFA. I'm going with the RFA every time. The draft is a crap shoot particularly if you're not picking at the beginning of the first round. The RFA would make us a perennial playoff team if not top 12 team in the league. That means our picks will likely be in the 20s which might as well be in the 2nd round. Don't see getting many studs with those 4 picks.
I've looked back at 2006-2017 drafts and how many studs have been picked with the 20 - 31 pick. I've also looked at studs from the second round in those drafts. Here are the results:
Studs from 20-31 overall: Pastrnak(25), Giroux(22), maybe Kuznetsov(26),.
Studs form 2nd round: Josi(38), Subban(43), Kucherov(58), Aho(35), maybe O'Reilly(33)..
So yes, there is the odd stud in the late first round but no more than the second round - so giving up 4 late first rounders is the same as giving up 4 second rounders.
I'm taking the RFA stud every time - better the bird in hand than the 4 still in the nest and you don't even know if they can fly (see Tinordi, McCarron, Sherbak - all picked in the 20s)
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Post by seventeen on Apr 4, 2020 14:11:20 GMT -5
Jejeje, seventeen, now I will double down with another guy you may not be crazy about. Josh Anderson is one year away from being an UFA and Columbus seems convinced that he has been angling to get out of there for some time now. Assuming Montreal could agree to a deal with Anderson (agent is Darren Ferris so it could be tricky), I would be trade Byron for him. Don’t get me wrong, Byron is a very useful winger with great speed, he kills penalties and he can slot in different places in the lineup at even strength. My reasoning starts with the fact that Byron is a full five years older than Anderson. And the reality is that the two players’ productivity is basically the same (Anderson .43 ppg and Byron .41 ppg) and my thinking revolves around which player has a higher ceiling and which player will actually produce more over the next 3-5 years. And, last but not least, Anderson is 16 cm taller and 29 kg heavier. Columbus should like Byron’s character, cost certainty and relatively affordable contract in dollars (he is only owed $9.6 million in real money over the next three years with no signing bonuses in the equation). However, Kekalainen is a smart guy and he may perceive that swapping out the younger player with a higher ceiling could favor the Habs too much to pull the trigger on a simple player for player trade. For me Anderson could be a regular 23-25 goal guy and I would add a third round pick (preferably Washington’s) to help get this done. Then there is the question of his contract. Well, guys such as Ferland and Kassian come to mind. Anderson’s career offensive numbers are better than those two so my guess is that he would probably come in around 4 years/$17 or 18 million with Molson splashing out some of the grand total in the form of signing bonus money. Sorry, folatre, I missed this post earlier which explains my incredibly slow response. I'd do that deal, for all the reasons you mentioned. I'm not sure Columbus would, unless they're really tired of Anderson's contract jockeying and his agent. For that same reason, I don't think Bergevin would make that trade. He very much dislikes combative contract negotiations and usually ends up trading the guy giving him 'problems'
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Post by seventeen on Apr 4, 2020 14:17:53 GMT -5
The cost of an elite RFA in draft capital (four first round picks) sounds expensive at least on the surface of it. However, if you can get a star 22-23 year old first line centre locked up for what promise to be the most productive seven years of his career, then giving up four first round picks does not sound like bad business. For that very reason I do not believe the team getting raided is going to trust they will be better off with four unknown kids who best case will trickle into their system one at a time beginning a full year after they lose their proven young star. The other problem that I see, even if Bergevin would get aggressive and accept surrendering four first round picks, is that he seems to feel strongly about the Habs own internal salary structure and it would probably be contrary to his value system to pay Dubois or Barzal $11 million a season when guys he considers living legends (we may disagree but this is he how feels about them) like Price and Weber are considerably lower. The Aho situation was case in point. It was not only that the compensation for Carolina was laughable (1 first rounder, 1 second, 1 third), but it was also a case of Bergevin executing a strategy that entailed giving Aho a contract that Bergevin actually felt that Aho is worth and that fit okay with the Habs internal salary structure. In other words, it was not simply Bergevin's risk aversion to giving up four fourth round draft picks; it was also his unwillingness to "overpay" Aho. Completely in agreement. Assuming that a stud centre would guarantee you a playoff spot every year, I used the Habs last 4 picks in the 20-30 ranges and they were Scherbak, Poehling, McCarron and Juulsen. Would we trade those 4 for Aho? Yes, thats a rhetorical question. Habsorbed makes the same point above. Would Aho be worth $11MM a year? It looked like it this year and at 22 (at the time of the offer sheet), he'd have more productive years ahead of him.
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Post by habsorbed on Apr 4, 2020 14:54:11 GMT -5
Keep in mind that even if one of the 4 picks became a stud then the deal is a wash. So really 2 of the 4 late first round picks would have to be difference makers. Chances of that are nil. Can't think of one team that has turned 4 late first round picks in 4 years into 2 legit difference makers. Like I said: take the bird in hand!
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Post by folatre on Apr 4, 2020 15:50:01 GMT -5
Yeah, no doubt, I would only make the deal if Anderson was willing to sign.
I believe that Columbus is definitely going to trade Anderson. Their relationship is shot.
Could another GM, who really likes Anderson, offer more than Byron and a third? For sure. But that club would need to have the cap space to get him signed and given the financial carnage in the NHL (not to mention the world at large) there are not going to be that many serious suitors. I could see Colorado and Buffalo kicking tires.
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Post by UberCranky on Apr 4, 2020 17:25:55 GMT -5
The other problem that I see, even if Bergevin would get aggressive and accept surrendering four first round picks, is that he seems to feel strongly about the Habs own internal salary structure and it would probably be contrary to his value system to pay Dubois or Barzal $11 million a season when guys he considers living legends (we may disagree but this is he how feels about them) like Price and Weber are considerably lower. I'll give you one Bbainz living legend match and raise you a Quebecois legend in the making. Not hard to sell a Ste-Agathe-des-Monts born kid who has a ton of size and bad boy dandruff attitude to the masses. Certainly a step up from Drouin. And who knows, Dubois and Drouin may get a boost from being the face of Quebecois for the Habs. On the other hand, Columbus is going to look at losing a 60 point 11 million guy for 4 first rounders. The metrics, optics and logic are not that bad. I think The Wood is going to be a perennial 80 point center and capable of handling anybody in the league. Besides.....even for my age, I'm am getting unusually excited from Kk, Suzuki, Poehling, and Dubois forming the backbone of one hell of a center lineup. That is the way. I have spoken.
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Post by habsorbed on Apr 4, 2020 18:11:39 GMT -5
The other problem that I see, even if Bergevin would get aggressive and accept surrendering four first round picks, is that he seems to feel strongly about the Habs own internal salary structure and it would probably be contrary to his value system to pay Dubois or Barzal $11 million a season when guys he considers living legends (we may disagree but this is he how feels about them) like Price and Weber are considerably lower. I'll give you one Bbainz living legend match and raise you a Quebecois legend in the making. Not hard to sell a Ste-Agathe-des-Monts born kid who has a ton of size and bad boy dandruff attitude to the masses. Certainly a step up from Drouin. And who knows, Dubois and Drouin may get a boost from being the face of Quebecois for the Habs. On the other hand, Columbus is going to look at losing a 60 point 11 million guy for 4 first rounders. The metrics, optics and logic are not that bad. I think The Wood is going to be a perennial 80 point center and capable of handling anybody in the league. Besides.....even for my age, I'm am getting unusually excited from Kk, Suzuki, Poehling, and Dubois forming the backbone of one hell of a center lineup. That is the way. I have spoken. These days I'm looking to follow someone, anyone, to the promised land! Count me in among the Ubercrankites!
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Post by UberCranky on Apr 4, 2020 19:23:31 GMT -5
I'll give you one Bbainz living legend match and raise you a Quebecois legend in the making. Not hard to sell a Ste-Agathe-des-Monts born kid who has a ton of size and bad boy dandruff attitude to the masses. Certainly a step up from Drouin. And who knows, Dubois and Drouin may get a boost from being the face of Quebecois for the Habs. On the other hand, Columbus is going to look at losing a 60 point 11 million guy for 4 first rounders. The metrics, optics and logic are not that bad. I think The Wood is going to be a perennial 80 point center and capable of handling anybody in the league. Besides.....even for my age, I'm am getting unusually excited from Kk, Suzuki, Poehling, and Dubois forming the backbone of one hell of a center lineup. That is the way. I have spoken. These days I'm looking to follow someone, anyone, to the promised land! Count me in among the Ubercrankites! You also want to be unusually excited? Thus is not the way. I have misspoken.
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Post by folatre on Apr 4, 2020 22:34:14 GMT -5
I will give Molson and Bergevin credit if Montreal steps up and offer sheets Barzal or Dubois with a 7 year/$77 million contract.
However, I just do not see it working. In the case of Dubois, Columbus is not really a club that can afford to defer/postpone winning. Their best players are Jones and Werenski and those guys have only two years remaining on their contracts. Plus, their veteran leaders such as Atkinson, Foligno, Savard, Jenner, Nyquist are not young enough to be major players 3-4 years down the road. If I am Kekalainen, I remind myself that the Blue Jackets have finished above the Canadiens in each of the three seasons that Dubois played in the league, so why would I let him leave for nothing and no one that helps me in the short run (2020-22).
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Post by The Habitual Fan on Apr 5, 2020 9:54:58 GMT -5
I would like MB to try and trade for Anthony Mantha in Detroit. He is a big 25 year old RW with a cannon of a shot and a Montreal kid to boot. He was possibly on the market last season as Yzerman is looking to rebuild so would possibly take prospects and picks. Poehling and a 2nd round this year?
He would certainly be a big addition to the right side and add needed size to top 6.
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Post by seventeen on Apr 5, 2020 13:19:35 GMT -5
I would like MB to try and trade for Anthony Mantha in Detroit. He is a big 25 year old RW with a cannon of a shot and a Montreal kid to boot. He was possibly on the market last season as Yzerman is looking to rebuild so would possibly take prospects and picks. Poehling and a 2nd round this year? He would certainly be a big addition to the right side and add needed size to top 6. Not a bad idea. I'm still reluctant to give up on Poehling, though. Maybe Drouin for Mantha . Think Yzerman does that? Just joking guys (maybe). I'm more interested in the ages here and giving up someone a bit older than Poehling. Domi? Manntha is a natural scorer and he always seems to score against us.
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Post by UberCranky on Apr 5, 2020 13:34:44 GMT -5
I hate to bring the virus into another discussion but I've been reading up on the Spanish flu and herd immunity. Because we are keeping that from happening through social isolation and how infectious this virus is, there is a very high probability that we will see wave after wave and NOT see much of a season until early next year. IF that. Unless there is a vaccine, there is no chance of a season.
Soo....
Until further notice, ANY trade has to be measured against the likelihood of a player not fulfilling the first year of their contract.
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Post by folatre on Apr 5, 2020 18:58:12 GMT -5
Montreal reaps almost $85 million USD annually from television rights. It will hurt bad if the big money from gate receipts do not materialize due to the crisis, but there is no way the league and the NHLPA do not figure out some formula for partial player salaries in the event that games without fans is the best they can do. The alternative, no revenue stream and players earning nothing, is worse.
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Post by folatre on Apr 5, 2020 22:21:44 GMT -5
I would like MB to try and trade for Anthony Mantha in Detroit. He is a big 25 year old RW with a cannon of a shot and a Montreal kid to boot. He was possibly on the market last season as Yzerman is looking to rebuild so would possibly take prospects and picks. Poehling and a 2nd round this year? He would certainly be a big addition to the right side and add needed size to top 6. I like Mantha too. Mantha is the same age as Anderson and they are basically in the exact same position contractually. Both need a contract this summer and yet both are eligible to become UFAs the following summer. But their situations are different as well. First, Anderson's relationship with management in Columbus is broken and he is available; despite the fact that Kenny Holland had trouble getting Mantha signed two summers ago, it is not clear that Mantha wants out or that Yzerman does not see him as part of their core moving forward. Second, in the event that Detroit is not totally convinced about holding onto him given how far they are away from icing a competitive team, Mantha is a .665 point per game player (as a reference point Drouin is .599 for his career) and the cost of acquiring him would not be cheap and the contract that he would require would be significant. I actually think Habitual’s offer (Poehling and a second) is about what it would take. Of course, I would only consider it if Mantha was ready to sign long-term, let’s say something like 5 x 5.75 or 6 x 6.
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Post by The Habitual Fan on Apr 6, 2020 9:13:00 GMT -5
If Montreal could trade for Mantha and offer sheet Dubois they give up a bunch of picks but get back young players and have enough depth that I wouldn't see that as an obstacle. This would be the deepest the Habs would have been at center in a long time
Domi(25)-Dubios (22)-Gallagher (27) Tartar (30)-Suzuki(20)-Mantha Drouin (25)- Danualt (27)-KK (20) Leknohen (24)- Evans (23)- Armia (26)
Chairot - Weber Petry - Kulak Mete - Romanov/Borowiecki (UFA) Brook/Furey/Juulsen
PK Subban once the Devils buy him out (just kidding)
Price Halak or Talbot (UFA)
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