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Post by seventeen on Jul 15, 2020 23:27:37 GMT -5
I guess we'll see just how disciplined NHL GM's can be. The new CBA has eliminated the one week 'negotiation' period, so all hell might break loose at 12:01 following the UFA deadline.
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Post by folatre on Jul 16, 2020 7:52:17 GMT -5
I guess that technically, with the CBA signed and delivered, GMs are currently free to negotiate with and sign not only their own 2020 UFAs but also their 2021 UFAs.
I have no idea what Molson and Bergevin are thinking, but given the current landscape cutting into the amount of leverage the players have, I would certainly not be rushing to put good offers on the table anytime soon.
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Post by PTH on Jul 16, 2020 8:21:19 GMT -5
I guess that technically, with the CBA signed and delivered, GMs are currently free to negotiate with and sign not only their own 2020 UFAs but also their 2021 UFAs. I have no idea what Molson and Bergevin are thinking, but given the current landscape cutting into the amount of leverage the players have, I would certainly not be rushing to put good offers on the table anytime soon. I wonder if we'll see some shorter-term contracts for younger UFAs, looking for a big payday on their next contracts. IE: Taylor Hall is about 28, he could get a 7 or 8 year deal now, but might just go for a 3 year deal, thinking he'll make more on a 4 year deal signed in 3 years, than he would in years 4 to 7 in a deal offered today. As well, those 3 years might be for real money, whereas right now on a 7 year deal the AAV wouldn't be insanely high.
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Post by jkr on Jul 16, 2020 9:09:36 GMT -5
I think we were already seeing that trend with younger RFAs like Werenski & McAvoy.
Players are betting on themselves now rather than taking the security of the 8 year deal.
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Post by folatre on Jul 16, 2020 9:14:40 GMT -5
That is a good point, PTH. Among the Habs looming UFAs, Danault is the only one who will sign his next contract at age 28. I am not sure if Danault would want to bet on himself on a shorter-term deal because he has had it about as good as he ever will (first line minutes, access to the Habs two best wingers), so between the risk of injury and the possibility that his numbers likely plateau there is the real possibility that whatever he can get on a longer-term contract now may turn out to be the best deal that he can ever get.
Would Danault really want to sign 2 years/$8.5 million and bet on himself or would he prefer to accept 5 years/$24 million?
To say the league is not full of $5+ million AAV hits for forwards who have never reached 20 goals in their career is an understatement. There is only one guy (Josh Bailey) in that unique club. This is not to disparage Danault and the impressive contributions he makes, but goles son amores and that is the key to getting paid.
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Post by PTH on Jul 16, 2020 12:10:41 GMT -5
I think we were already seeing that trend with younger RFAs like Werenski & McAvoy. Players are betting on themselves now rather than taking the security of the 8 year deal. I meant it in terms of thinking the budget won't be there in the near future, not in terms of players thinking they'll be worth even more later on. Hall might get 3*8(24) right now now, or be offered 7*6(42). He might well assume in 3 years, he can get more than 18 for 4 years. ---- If also wonder, if more players were finance guys, if there'd be stress about escrow and the flat cap, since really right now a guy like Price is going to be getting paid based on the old idea of a forever rising cap, whereas someone signing today will get less based on cap projections, but they'll both potentially lose as much to escrow if revenue isn't actually there.
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Post by UberCranky on Jul 16, 2020 15:16:26 GMT -5
I think we were already seeing that trend with younger RFAs like Werenski & McAvoy. Players are betting on themselves now rather than taking the security of the 8 year deal. I meant it in terms of thinking the budget won't be there in the near future, not in terms of players thinking they'll be worth even more later on. Hall might get 3*8(24) right now now, or be offered 7*6(42). He might well assume in 3 years, he can get more than 18 for 4 years. ---- If also wonder, if more players were finance guys, if there'd be stress about escrow and the flat cap, since really right now a guy like Price is going to be getting paid based on the old idea of a forever rising cap, whereas someone signing today will get less based on cap projections, but they'll both potentially lose as much to escrow if revenue isn't actually there. I'm not versed on the financial end of the CBA. How much goes into escrow and how much can they lose? Without gate receipts, then what? 80% loss of salary or is the loss capped? They face a hell of a short term future if this covid thing goes deep into next year. No fans and if there is a second lockdown, maybe no season. Which I assume means no pay for the players. Or are their salaries guaranteed?
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Post by folatre on Jul 16, 2020 16:51:12 GMT -5
The players are facing tough times in 2020-21 (20 percent escrow and 10 percent deferral and cap flat at $81.5 million) and 2021-22 (15-18 percent escrow and cap flat at $81.5 million).
Supposedly the escrow rate will be considerably lower in the following four years of the CBA and the cap may rise very modestly over those seasons (2022-26).
Basically the players averted a near term catastrophe, which means the owners are not getting their 50 percent of hockey related revenue in 2019-20 or 2020-21. However, there is no free lunch and the players will pay back that 'debt' from 2022-26.
The whole point of extending the CBA through 2026 was to bring a degree of certainty to the chaos that 2019-20 and 2020-21 would have otherwise wrecked on the industry.
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Post by franko on Jul 16, 2020 17:43:06 GMT -5
The players are facing tough times in 2020-21 my heart bleeds for them. where's the extreme sarcasm smilie? those on the league minimum make more in 1 year than I make in 10. sure, I don't have the talent needed to play the game professionally and I have chosen a different lower paying profession, but I'm not shedding many tears for them as our family income has taken a big hit.
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Post by PTH on Jul 17, 2020 1:37:30 GMT -5
The players are facing tough times in 2020-21 my heart bleeds for them. where's the extreme sarcasm smilie? those on the league minimum make more in 1 year than I make in 10. sure, I don't have the talent needed to play the game professionally and I have chosen a different lower paying profession, but I'm not shedding many tears for them as our family income has taken a big hit. I totally get it. But for the players, seeing someone make more seems to hit them hard, somehow they take someone making a frigging obscene amount of money, when they are only making moderately obscene amounts while being equivalent players, seems to hit them harder than it is for us regular folk when we see a jackass get a promotion and a 20k raise (which will in fact impact their quality of life way more than the difference between 4 and 5M would)
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Post by franko on Jul 17, 2020 6:59:48 GMT -5
my heart bleeds for them. where's the extreme sarcasm smilie? those on the league minimum make more in 1 year than I make in 10. sure, I don't have the talent needed to play the game professionally and I have chosen a different lower paying profession, but I'm not shedding many tears for them as our family income has taken a big hit. I totally get it. But for the players, seeing someone make more seems to hit them hard, somehow they take someone making a frigging obscene amount of money, when they are only making moderately obscene amounts while being equivalent players, seems to hit them harder than it is for us regular folk when we see a jackass get a promotion and a 20k raise (which will in fact impact their quality of life way more than the difference between 4 and 5M would) and I totally get it. we live up to and beyond our means, not matter how little or how much we earn. look at it as a percentage rather than a number and it's a whole lot different.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 17, 2020 12:43:10 GMT -5
A lot of world problems could be solved if the very, very rich simply paid for them and it would not affect their standard of living an iota. But its not about the $$ and what they can do. It's about proving they're better, faster, smarter than the other guy and $$ are the measuring stick. In many ways it's a game. Do you think Bezos couldn't afford to pay his warehouse workers another $5 an hour? But then Zuckerberg might edge closer to him in that effin race.
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Post by folatre on Jul 19, 2020 20:43:40 GMT -5
A buddy of mine who is a big Sabres fan told me that he has been hearing that Buffalo's front office (jeje, or what is left of it after the purge) is under immense pressure to make the playoffs in 2021 and for the right deal they would be perfectly okay trading the #8 overall pick. Here is where it gets weird. He said Domi (obviously with a contract agreed to) for the Sabres' first rounder is something Kevyn Adams could probably sell to the Pegulas. I get it that the Sabres desperately need a second line centre, but the top 10 in this draft looks pretty nice. Also, I wonder if Bergevin would have any inclination to subtract a good player off the roster unless he feels fairly sure that he will not be fired if the Habs miss the playoffs in 2020-21.
For me there are plenty of small forwards on the Habs that I would rather move before Domi. But it is an interesting scenario to contemplate given the quality of the player who will be there at #8 provided that management feels relatively sure that Suzuki and Kotkaniemi are near-locks to be consistent 60-70 point centres on their second NHL contracts.
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Post by PTH on Jul 20, 2020 0:44:38 GMT -5
A buddy of mine who is a big Sabres fan told me that he has been hearing that Buffalo's front office (jeje, or what is left of it after the purge) is under immense pressure to make the playoffs in 2021 and for the right deal they would be perfectly okay trading the #8 overall pick. Here is where it gets weird. He said Domi (obviously with a contract agreed to) for the Sabres' first rounder is something Kevyn Adams could probably sell to the Pegulas. I get it that the Sabres desperately need a second line centre, but the top 10 in this draft looks pretty nice. Also, I wonder if Bergevin would have any inclination to subtract a good player off the roster unless he feels fairly sure that he will not be fired if the Habs miss the playoffs in 2020-21. For me there are plenty of small forwards on the Habs that I would rather move before Domi. But it is an interesting scenario to contemplate given the quality of the player who will be there at #8 provided that management feels relatively sure that Suzuki and Kotkaniemi are near-locks to be consistent 60-70 point centres on their second NHL contracts. A pick for a fairly highend player is quite a risk for us to take, though. I'd actually want more than just #8.. Vancouver got pick #9 for Schneider as I recall, and I think it was seen as a steal for NJ... Also, it depends a lot on Domi's contract status. Signed to a reasonable long term deal he is worth more, unsigned and with a rumor he wants big money, he's worth far less...
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Jul 20, 2020 1:20:37 GMT -5
A lot of world problems could be solved if the very, very rich simply paid for them and it would not affect their standard of living an iota. But its not about the $$ and what they can do. It's about proving they're better, faster, smarter than the other guy and $$ are the measuring stick. In many ways it's a game. Do you think Bezos couldn't afford to pay his warehouse workers another $5 an hour? But then Zuckerberg might edge closer to him in that effin race. The issue is fairness vs charity. Is it fair for 95% of the population to have their bills paid by the more successful 5%. It certainly is charitable but is it fair. Is it fair for the worst managed hockey teams to be given the best young players? Instead of encouraging success we are rewarding failure. Alberta subsidizing Quebec, Whites and Asians subsidizing Blacks and Hispanics. Hiring quotas, graduated taxation, welfare, remedial schooling vs education for the gifted, handicapped accomodation vs efficiency. It’s not a clear distinction and there is no absolute universal solution but in general i favor fairness over charity. Modify the draft to stop rewarding failure and encouraging tanking and welfare.
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Post by folatre on Jul 20, 2020 8:29:43 GMT -5
PTH, for sure, it would be tough call. Under normal circumstances, it would be crazy to trade a 25 year old who can consistently pitch in 60 points, skates well, and can bring toughness to the equation.
But there could be unique issues involved. What if management and coach do not believe in Domi as a centre and Domi is adamant that he wants to play centre? What if Julien has a poor relationship with Domi and perceives that the player's inability to correct his defensive deficiencies means that he is uncoachable? What if the contract situation has reached an impasse?
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Post by Skilly on Jul 20, 2020 13:15:05 GMT -5
A buddy of mine who is a big Sabres fan told me that he has been hearing that Buffalo's front office (jeje, or what is left of it after the purge) is under immense pressure to make the playoffs in 2021 and for the right deal they would be perfectly okay trading the #8 overall pick. Here is where it gets weird. He said Domi (obviously with a contract agreed to) for the Sabres' first rounder is something Kevyn Adams could probably sell to the Pegulas. I get it that the Sabres desperately need a second line centre, but the top 10 in this draft looks pretty nice. Also, I wonder if Bergevin would have any inclination to subtract a good player off the roster unless he feels fairly sure that he will not be fired if the Habs miss the playoffs in 2020-21. For me there are plenty of small forwards on the Habs that I would rather move before Domi. But it is an interesting scenario to contemplate given the quality of the player who will be there at #8 provided that management feels relatively sure that Suzuki and Kotkaniemi are near-locks to be consistent 60-70 point centres on their second NHL contracts. If they are desperate for a second line center, then trading them our first line Center should really get the trade done.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 20, 2020 14:19:11 GMT -5
A lot of world problems could be solved if the very, very rich simply paid for them and it would not affect their standard of living an iota. But its not about the $$ and what they can do. It's about proving they're better, faster, smarter than the other guy and $$ are the measuring stick. In many ways it's a game. Do you think Bezos couldn't afford to pay his warehouse workers another $5 an hour? But then Zuckerberg might edge closer to him in that effin race. The issue is fairness vs charity. Is it fair for 95% of the population to have their bills paid by the more successful 5%. It certainly is charitable but is it fair. Is it fair for the worst managed hockey teams to be given the best young players? Instead of encouraging success we are rewarding failure. Alberta subsidizing Quebec, Whites and Asians subsidizing Blacks and Hispanics. Hiring quotas, graduated taxation, welfare, remedial schooling vs education for the gifted, handicapped accomodation vs efficiency. It’s not a clear distinction and there is no absolute universal solution but in general i favor fairness over charity. Modify the draft to stop rewarding failure and encouraging tanking and welfare. I/m not espousing changing the rich's lifestyle in any meaningful way. LIke I mentioned above, Bezos wouldn't miss it if his income each year was cut in half. It's still a huge amount of money. But the good it could do to those who can't get proper health care or education is enormous and totally beneficial to society as a whole. I don't agree with 'giving' people stuff. It spoils them. They have to contribute themselves as well, but SO many rich people haven't earned their money. They've inherited it, or stolen it. I listen to some of these folks get interviewed and you wonder how they manage to tie their shoes in the morning (ok Velcro). They're not smart, they're not talented, and they control a ton of power. That's the unfair part. Decisions are made that affect our lives by people who are plainly greedy and lack any decent values. The Orlando Magic (owned by the Devos family with $5B in assets), laid off a bunch of employees. That was peanuts to the Devos family and potentially devastating to those laid off. Who cares, right? Unless you're the guy laid off. Just pray you're not the guy whose life is affected by those people. Anyway, wrong thread for this discussion. Cheers.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 20, 2020 14:21:24 GMT -5
A buddy of mine who is a big Sabres fan told me that he has been hearing that Buffalo's front office (jeje, or what is left of it after the purge) is under immense pressure to make the playoffs in 2021 and for the right deal they would be perfectly okay trading the #8 overall pick. Here is where it gets weird. He said Domi (obviously with a contract agreed to) for the Sabres' first rounder is something Kevyn Adams could probably sell to the Pegulas. I get it that the Sabres desperately need a second line centre, but the top 10 in this draft looks pretty nice. Also, I wonder if Bergevin would have any inclination to subtract a good player off the roster unless he feels fairly sure that he will not be fired if the Habs miss the playoffs in 2020-21. For me there are plenty of small forwards on the Habs that I would rather move before Domi. But it is an interesting scenario to contemplate given the quality of the player who will be there at #8 provided that management feels relatively sure that Suzuki and Kotkaniemi are near-locks to be consistent 60-70 point centres on their second NHL contracts. I'd do it. You're going to get a pretty good player at 8 and for all intents and purposes, Domi is a winger, even if we have used him at centre. I'd try trading Drouin for him, but that's unlikely under this regime. Drouin with Eichel would look pretty good.
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Post by folatre on Jul 20, 2020 17:57:35 GMT -5
I like Domi and I would much rather move one of the other smallish left handed wingers (Tatar, Drouin, or Byron) but none of those guys are going to fetch an impact player in return or the chance to pick an impact player.
I am more than good signing Domi to a solid deal (4 years/$22-23 million) for player and club so long as he is receptive to playing the wing as needed because let's face it, right now the organization is not totally sold on him as a centre.
My preference, if Montreal moves a 25 year old guy as feisty and skilled as Domi, would be to make him part of a package to land a difference maker like Barzal or Dubois in the event that Bergevin threatens an offer sheet and Lamoriello or Kekalainen invite him to come to the table to talk trade.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 20, 2020 19:09:02 GMT -5
So lets play that 'what if' game, then. Say the teams agree on a Domi for #8 deal. Could the Habs leverage those picks to move up? Is it even worth moving up? If, for example, a guy like Perfetti is available at 4 or 5, do you trade those 2 picks for him? All speculation and good fun, of course, but if you like him (or Raymond or Byfield if he falls) enough, would you trade a Holz and maybe a Drysdale or Quinn to move up those 3 or 4 picks? Or do you gamble that one of your two picks turns into a difference maker?
That's where a GM earns his money, IMO. It really depends on the quality of your scouting staff and how much confidence you have in them to go either way.
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Post by folatre on Jul 22, 2020 11:16:24 GMT -5
Hockey is debatable, but I would be very uneasy if Bergevin traded the #8 and #9 picks for the #4 or #5. The ceiling is potentially very high for all of the kids in the 2 through 10/11 range of this draft, but they all seem a couple degrees removed from being a can't miss NHL star. Therefore, I would have rather have two shots at grabbing a future star than trusting that Timmins knows which one is an actual lock.
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Post by Skilly on Jul 22, 2020 13:26:39 GMT -5
trusting that Timmins knows which one is an actual lock. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL Oh, you were serious … I'd rather the TSN monkey make the selection
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Post by seventeen on Jul 22, 2020 17:26:23 GMT -5
Hockey is debatable, but I would be very uneasy if Bergevin traded the #8 and #9 picks for the #4 or #5. The ceiling is potentially very high for all of the kids in the 2 through 10/11 range of this draft, but they all seem a couple degrees removed from being a can't miss NHL star. Therefore, I would have rather have two shots at grabbing a future star than trusting that Timmins knows which one is an actual lock. Fair enough. I don't think there's enough difference between the guy at 5 and the guys at 8 and 9. A small amount, yes, but not enough to offset doubling your chances.
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Post by GNick99 on Aug 1, 2020 6:18:10 GMT -5
A buddy of mine who is a big Sabres fan told me that he has been hearing that Buffalo's front office (jeje, or what is left of it after the purge) is under immense pressure to make the playoffs in 2021 and for the right deal they would be perfectly okay trading the #8 overall pick. Here is where it gets weird. He said Domi (obviously with a contract agreed to) for the Sabres' first rounder is something Kevyn Adams could probably sell to the Pegulas. I get it that the Sabres desperately need a second line centre, but the top 10 in this draft looks pretty nice. Also, I wonder if Bergevin would have any inclination to subtract a good player off the roster unless he feels fairly sure that he will not be fired if the Habs miss the playoffs in 2020-21. For me there are plenty of small forwards on the Habs that I would rather move before Domi. But it is an interesting scenario to contemplate given the quality of the player who will be there at #8 provided that management feels relatively sure that Suzuki and Kotkaniemi are near-locks to be consistent 60-70 point centres on their second NHL contracts. Domi one of few warriors we have
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Post by GNick99 on Aug 1, 2020 6:22:11 GMT -5
Would you sign TJ Brodie? Trade Petry? Looking at his stats, in 2019, Brodie averaged 22 minutes, +25 and 35 points. Bring him here he should improve learning from Weber. Like Petry, Chariot, etc.... Don't have to give up nothing to sign Brodie, our caproom stays the same as Petry and his contract be rougly close. Petry bring us another major asset. Bergevin generally good at trading, Domi, Petry, Suzuki, Weber, etc....
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Post by folatre on Aug 1, 2020 16:00:21 GMT -5
I hope that Bergevin is scribbling a simple note to himself this afternoon: do not sign Mike Smith to be Pricer's backup.
Brodie is nice d-man, plays a pretty balanced game. Hockey is debatable, but I actually do not like him better than Petry. Do any insiders think Brodie wants a change of scenery? I would assume Calgary would like to keep him since Hamonic basically has both feet out the door now.
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Post by GNick99 on Aug 2, 2020 9:11:31 GMT -5
I hope that Bergevin is scribbling a simple note to himself this afternoon: do not sign Mike Smith to be Pricer's backup. Brodie is nice d-man, plays a pretty balanced game. Hockey is debatable, but I actually do not like him better than Petry. Do any insiders think Brodie wants a change of scenery? I would assume Calgary would like to keep him since Hamonic basically has both feet out the door now. Never said better than Petry. Said Weber make him better, more consistent. Like he did with Chiarot, Petry, Scandella, etc... Bergevin usually good trader. Suzuki, Danault, Petry, Weber, Domi, etc...., he could trade Petry bring us another like them.
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Post by folatre on Aug 2, 2020 9:36:38 GMT -5
Good point about playing with Weber. With the current financial landscape, Brodie hauling in $5 million per would definitely, in my mind at least, mean the end of Petry on the roster.
I actually think there is a lot of good talent on the way to fill holes on the left side (Romanov, Harris, Struble, Norlinder), but I certainly understand why people see LHD as a roster weakness for the next season or perhaps two.
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Post by GNick99 on Aug 2, 2020 10:08:22 GMT -5
Good point about playing with Weber. With the current financial landscape, Brodie hauling in $5 million per would definitely, in my mind at least, mean the end of Petry on the roster. I actually think there is a lot of good talent on the way to fill holes on the left side (Romanov, Harris, Struble, Norlinder), but I certainly understand why people see LHD as a roster weakness for the next season or perhaps two. Sign a Ufa, thinking trading 2 for 1 top player? Tatar and Petry for top player? Would you sign Hoffman? Give him Tatar money, trade Tatar? Get a first for Tatar, trade Petry and that first pick return a top player?
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