Debt....and shutdown

[Cranky]

The virus is killing....the economy.

Unless you look for it, you won't get the news on what is happening to our debt. No surprise there.

The Federal debt is probably upped by 300 billion with today's announcements. Expect another 50 billion in "rent relief" for general public the next few days.

Add another 150 billion by provinces.

Add another 50 billion in lost tax revenue.

Subtract the death of oil industry jobs and revenues.

And this is only April 25th....

The standard line is...don't worry, the economy will come roaring back.

NO IT WONT

Debt? Nothing to see here....look over there.....it's a squirrel...

The story of "only 35% of gdp"? Bullcrap. That is the federal share, which actually 800 billion out of a 2,2 trillion economy. It completely ignores the provincial debts which amount to another 700 billion for about 1.5 trillion in 2019. Of course the bs line is that it's not "federal debt" as if what? Liechtenstein is going to back stop it? Of course it's federal debt unless anyone is slow enough to believe that a province can declare bankruptcy.

In FACT, the Bank of Canada has bought 50 billion in provincial bonds. More to come...

Look...look...,it's gray squirrel...

Now? We already have a federal and provincial debt that is about the size of our gdp. Going from 1.5 trillion to 2.2 trillion IF no more "programs" are announced. An unlikely scenario because politicians love being Santas.

Sunny days will come back....

No matter how many days of sunny ways we are sold, reality is that people are scared and will hold back on major purchases. Without those, there will a recession and the only question...how vicious.

The recession can and likely trigger the housing bubble collapse. From the mid 90s till now, there has been a steady price climb with no correction. In the last several years it accelerated even more with again, no correction. It couldn't be sustained and was begging to burst...and now it can.

Can the federal government stop it? Sure, by how many multiples hundreds of billions of debt? Real estate is worth 12 trillion in Canada of which half is residential. Any attempt to stop a slide will start by stopping the banks and credit unions from collapsing. After all they hold 1.6 trillion in residential mortgages.

Did I forget to mention personal debt in Canada? Add another 400 billion in non mortgage debt.

No good news...but better then bad news, really bad news...

At best...we emerged into a mild recession with higher GST and PST as well as increased personal and corporate taxes. Those alone will slow the economy. But the housing bubble holds.

At worse....devastated building and oil industry, roughly 30% of our economy on top of a 50-60 cent dollar. An economic free fall.....and NOBODY is going to come to our rescue.

If there is any economic good news....please share...








www.capebretonpost.com/business/local-business/adrian-white-taxpayers-liable-for-canadas-ballooning-debt-440750/

business.financialpost.com/news/economy/coronavirus-crisis-canada-debt-nation#comments-area

business.financialpost.com/investing/david-rosenberg-the-great-canadian-debt-surge-has-come-home-to-roost

[GNick99]

Apr 25, 2020 4:43:53 GMT -5 Cranky said:

The virus is killing....the economy.

Unless you look for it, you won't get the news on what is happening to our debt. No surprise there.

The Federal debt is probably upped by 300 billion with today's announcements. Expect another 50 billion in "rent relief" for general public the next few days.

Add another 150 billion by provinces.

Add another 50 billion in lost tax revenue.

Subtract the death of oil industry jobs and revenues.

And this is only April 25th....

The standard line is...don't worry, the economy will come roaring back.

NO IT WONT

Debt? Nothing to see here....look over there.....it's a squirrel...

The story of "only 35% of gdp"? Bullcrap. That is the federal share, which actually 800 billion out of a 2,2 trillion economy. It completely ignores the provincial debts which amount to another 700 billion for about 1.5 trillion in 2019. Of course the bs line is that it's not "federal debt" as if what? Liechtenstein is going to back stop it? Of course it's federal debt unless anyone is slow enough to believe that a province can declare bankruptcy.

In FACT, the Bank of Canada has bought 50 billion in provincial bonds. More to come...

Look...look...,it's gray squirrel...

Now? We already have a federal and provincial debt that is about the size of our gdp. Going from 1.5 trillion to 2.2 trillion IF no more "programs" are announced. An unlikely scenario because politicians love being Santas.

Sunny days will come back....

No matter how many days of sunny ways we are sold, reality is that people are scared and will hold back on major purchases. Without those, there will a recession and the only question...how vicious.

The recession can and likely trigger the housing bubble collapse. From the mid 90s till now, there has been a steady price climb with no correction. In the last several years it accelerated even more with again, no correction. It couldn't be sustained and was begging to burst...and now it can.

Can the federal government stop it? Sure, by how many multiples hundreds of billions of debt? Real estate is worth 12 trillion in Canada of which half is residential. Any attempt to stop a slide will start by stopping the banks and credit unions from collapsing. After all they hold 1.6 trillion in residential mortgages.

Did I forget to mention personal debt in Canada? Add another 400 billion in non mortgage debt.

No good news...but better then bad news, really bad news...

At best...we emerged into a mild recession with higher GST and PST as well as increased personal and corporate taxes. Those alone will slow the economy. But the housing bubble holds.

At worse....devastated building and oil industry, roughly 30% of our economy on top of a 50-60 cent dollar. An economic free fall.....and NOBODY is going to come to our rescue.

If there is any economic good news....please share...








www.capebretonpost.com/business/local-business/adrian-white-taxpayers-liable-for-canadas-ballooning-debt-440750/

business.financialpost.com/news/economy/coronavirus-crisis-canada-debt-nation#comments-area

business.financialpost.com/investing/david-rosenberg-the-great-canadian-debt-surge-has-come-home-to-roost

I am personally doing well, because I have invested well. But what good is it going to do me if country collapses. We could be another 1920-30s Germany.

[Cranky]

The Atlantic is a hard left site but occasionally, they get it right.

Terrific article...(without the usual "trump is evil" rhetoric.)

As you read the article, take note of my argument......Checkbook Santa can't sit inside his red brick house, popping out once a day to spend another billion or ten without long term damage to the economy. Sure, EVERYBODY wants financial help.....but there is a reality check that there are limits...and consequences.

There has to be a balance.....

Take the Shutdown Skeptics Seriously
This is not a straightforward battle between a pro-human and a pro-economy camp.

MAY 10, 2020

Conor Friedersdorf
Staff writer at The Atlantic

Should states ease pandemic restrictions or extend lockdowns and shelter-in-place orders into the summer? That question confronts leaders across the United States. President Trump says that “we have to get our country open.” And many governors are moving quickly in that direction.

Critics are dismayed. Citing forecasts that COVID-19 deaths could rise to 3,000 per day in June, they say that reopening without better defenses against infections is reckless. That assessment may well be correct. Many insist it is immoral, too. The columnist Amy Z. Quinn says the Trump administration is “choosing money over lives.” In a CNN news analysis, Daniel Burke offers this characterization of America’s choice: “Should we reopen the economy to help the majority or protect the lives of the vulnerable?”

Denunciations of that sort cast the lockdown debate as a straightforward battle between a pro-human and a pro-economy camp. But the actual trade-offs are not straightforward. Set aside “flattening the curve,” which will continue to make sense. Are ongoing, onerous shutdowns warranted beyond what is necessary to avoid overwhelming ambulances, hospitals, and morgues?

“The public, the media, the business community, and policymakers are largely unprepared for a pessimistic scenario,” the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity argued in a recent white paper. That is, the U.S. may have no treatment, no vaccine, and no ability to scale up testing and quarantining, due to technical hurdles or Trump administration incompetence or a lack of public buy-in.

If we knew that a broadly effective COVID-19 treatment was imminent, or that a working vaccine was months away, minimizing infections through social distancing until that moment would be the right course. At the other extreme, if we will never have an effective treatment or vaccine and most everyone will get infected eventually, then the costs of social distancing are untenable. We don’t know where we sit on that spectrum. So we cannot know what the best way forward is even if we place the highest possible value on preserving life and protecting the vulnerable.

That uncertainty means, at the very least, that Americans should carefully consider the potential costs of prolonged shutdowns lest they cause more deaths or harm to the vulnerable than they spare.

Ongoing closures and supply-chain interruptions in wealthier countries could have catastrophic ripple effects, Michael T. Klare warns in The Nation, highlighting the possibility that global starvation could soar. “Even where supply chains remain intact, many poor countries lack the funds to pay for imported food,” he explained. “This has long been a problem for the least-developed countries, which often depend on international food aid … It is becoming even more severe as the number of people without jobs multiplies and donor countries balk at higher aid expenditures.” His article wasn’t a brief for reopening the economy, but it implied a need to guard against shutdowns that cause more deaths via starvation than are saved by slowing infections.


“A prolonged depression will stunt lives as surely as any viral epidemic, and its toll will not be confined to the elderly,” Heather Mac Donald argues at Spectator USA. “The shuttering of auto manufacturing plants led to an 85 percent increase in opioid overdose deaths in the surrounding counties over seven years, according to a recent study.” Deficit spending may be necessary to keep people afloat, she continued, but the wealth that permits it could quickly evaporate. “The enormously complex web of trade, once killed, cannot be brought back to life by government stimulus. And who is going to pay for all that deficit spending as businesses close and tax revenues disappear?”

At Arc Digital, Esther O’Reilly asks, “Why should we assume that a crashing economy would leave the healthcare system standing?” Fleshing out the matter, she writes, “You can’t keep the hospital lights on without keeping on the lights of the economic sectors undergirding it. Yes, our doctors and nurses are running out of masks and gloves, which is a serious problem. It would also be a serious problem if we lost the means and the manpower to make more, or if the hospitals ran out of cash on hand to buy more beds, ventilators, etc. And there’s the rub. We are being told we can’t fight the virus without pausing the economy, yet we can’t fight the virus without the economy.”


School closures may do long-term damage, as well. A recent study in The Lancet concluded that “the evidence for the effectiveness of school closures and other school social distancing measures comes almost entirely from influenza outbreaks,” and that the effectiveness of school measures in a coronavirus outbreak is uncertain. Another article in The Lancet noted that “education is one of the strongest predictors of the health and the wealth of a country’s future workers, and the impact of long-term school closure on educational outcomes, future earnings, the health of young people, and future national productivity has not been quantified.” A given closure could add months to the lives of some and subtract from the lives of others.

The general point is that minimizing the number of COVID-19 deaths today or a month from now or six months from now may or may not minimize the human costs of the pandemic when the full spectrum of human consequences is considered. The last global depression created conditions for a catastrophic world war that killed roughly 75 to 80 million people. Is that a possibility? The downside risks and costs of every approach are real, frightening, and depressing, no matter how little one thinks of reopening now.

These facts may not be evident from the least thoughtful proponents of reopening, many of whom advance arguments that are uninformed, dismissive of experts, or callous. But the warnings of thoughtful shutdown skeptics warrant careful study, not stigma rooted in the false pretense that they don’t have any plausible concerns or value human life

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/take-shutdown-skeptics-seriously/611419/

[Cranky]

Here is an artivleb that supports exactly what I said about what will happen.

Our "recovery" wont be V-shaped and it will need a massive stimulus to get it going. With Checkbook Santa already spent a few hundred billion, it will take hundreds ov billions to get the economy "stimulated".

It's going to be the "perfect" opportunity for the Liberals and NDP to play God and fund all their pet projects under the claim of gof "stimulus spending for our e onijic recovery".

Meanwhile, you and me and every adult Canadian, we will have a mortgage sized debt foisted upon us. My guess, $50,000 to $60,000 each.

Oh wait...I got $300 from the latest free money spree by Checkbook Santa. I take it all back....

Americans are slashing their spending, hoarding cash and shrinking their credit card debt as they fear their jobs could disappear during the coronavirus pandemic.

U.S. credit card debt suddenly reversed course in March and fell by the largest percentage in more than 30 years. At the same time, savings rates climbed to levels unseen since Ronald Reagan was in the White House.

The dramatic shifts in consumer behaviour reflect the unprecedented turmoil in the U.S. economy caused by the pandemic. Although caution is a logical response to that uncertainty, hunkering down also poses a risk to the recovery in an economy dominated by consumer spending. A so-called V-shaped recovery can't happen if consumers are sitting on the sidelines.

"Consumers are very cautious," said Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise Financial. "We're right in the middle of the storm."

The unemployment rate soared to 14.7% in April — the most severe unemployment crisis since the Great Depression — and Americans are bracing for more challenging times ahead.

The perceived probability of losing one's job over the next 12 months soared to nearly 21% in April, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released Monday. It was the second straight month of a record high for this metric in the survey, which the NY Fed launched in 2013.

Workers are also worried about how they'll land another job if they lose theirs. The perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months tumbled 6.1 percentage points to 47% in April, the largest monthly decline ever recorded.

The survey described "considerable deteriorations" in household expectations, including record lows for expected earnings, income and spending growth.

"We know that COVID has not gone away," said Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at Quill Intelligence. "That is going to keep in place an element of uncertainty and fear and hold back consumers' ability or desire to spend."

Worried Americans are drastically scaling back their credit card debt, the most expensive form of typical borrowing.

In March, revolving credit outstanding collapsed at an annual rate of 31%, according to a Federal Reserve report released last week. It was the largest one-month decline since January 1989.

Part of that drop, economists say, is that banks have pulled back on credit lines as more people become unemployed.

But consumers are also becoming more frugal and reining in their borrowing in case their income is wiped out.

The NY Fed survey found that the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months rose to 16.2% in April, well above the 12-month trailing average of 11.9%.

"People have seriously reined in their spending. You have to wonder when they will feel comfortable splurging," said Booth.

SAVINGS RATE SPIKED TO REAGAN-ERA LEVELS
Credit card borrowing and spending probably declined further in April.

For example, Visa reported that credit card payment volumes plunged 31% through April 28. Visa said the only category of U.S. payments volume that is growing is food and drugstores, along with Walmart, Costco and Target. Spending on everything else was down in April.

Visa has warned that payments volume in the "hardest-hit" categories of travel, fuel, restaurants and entertainment plunged by more than 50% in April. Travel spending collapsed by about 80% last month.

"The consumer that constitutes the beating heart of the real economy is preparing for a much longer slowdown than what policymakers are telling them," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a consultancy.


For now, Americans are building cash reserves to help them get through the storm.

The savings rate in the United States climbed from 8% in February to 13.1% in March. That was the highest savings rate since November 1981. And given the disastrous economic news, the savings rate will likely go even higher when April statistics are released.

"When you have a depression-like shock, households will increase savings," said Brusuelas, who called the March spike in savings rate "insane."

The shifts in consumer behaviour are another reminder of the pain on Main Street that often gets lost given the near-euphoria on Wall Street. The U.S. stock market has raced back to life since late March as investors have celebrated the response from the federal government and signs of hope on the health front.

Although investors are optimistic about the future of the large companies that make up the S&P 500, it's clear that small and medium-sized businesses are hurting badly.

About 83% of middle-market businesses reported a general decline in economic prospects in April, according to a survey released Monday by RSM. And more than half expect a decline in conditions over the next six months. About 46% of executives reported a drop in April hiring and nearly a third noted a decline in compensation being offered.

RSM's middle-market business index collapsed to record lows in April on the bleak findings.

RSM said the survey strongly implies the federal government's stimulus efforts "will not be sufficient to revive the beating heart and soul of the real economy in the near term."

REOPENING THE ECONOMY
Although the shifts in consumer behaviour are rational, they point to longer-term challenges for an economy that is dominated by consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of U.S. GDP.

Economists warn that even after stay-at-home orders are lifted, many Americans won't spend as aggressively as before until there is a vaccine. It's not as simple as reopening the economy.

Many consumers, especially senior citizens and those with preexisting conditions, will probably shy away from crowds for the foreseeable future. And that means the economy can't get flipped back on like a light switch.

"Even if you are a multimillionaire, you're going to be much more reluctant to go to restaurants, baseball games and travel on airplanes," Ameriprise's Price saide

www.ctvnews.ca/business/a-new-threat-to-the-economy-americans-are-saving-like-it-s-the-80s-again-1.4935312

[Cranky]

What's a TRILLON DOLLARS between friends? Just because if was 350 billion it doesn't mean Checkbook Santa can't triple it...and look real pretty doing it.

Besides, the simple political math is that everybody likes free money and will vote for Santa....

BTW, don't forget provincial debt will also skyrocket...from 700 billion to about 1.3 TRILLION.

Don't worry...it can get worse...and it's only May 13th...

PBO: 'Not unthinkable' that federal debt could hit $1 trillion this fiscal year

OTTAWA -- Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux says it's "not unthinkable" that the federal debt could reach $1 trillion during this fiscal year as the economic response to the COVID-19 pandemic continues.

Giroux made the comment during Tuesday's finance committee meeting, when Conservative MP Pierre Poilievre asked whether it was "possible or realistic" that the federal debt could reach $1 trillion dollars during this fiscal year.

"Possible, yes. Realistic? Yes. Certainly not unthinkable," replied Giroux.

The comment comes two weeks after Giroux also predicted that the federal deficit for the year could reach over $252 billion as a result of the emergency economic programs the government has put in place to help Canadians cope with job and income losses amid the outbreak, if existing business shutdowns are slowly eased from the summer through December and oil prices remain low.

On Tuesday, he said this figure was "optimistic."

"The figure of $252 billion is very likely to be the very optimistic scenario, as opposed to the number for the deficit for the current fiscal year," Giroux explained.

He said the measures the government has been announcing are intended to be temporary, and that once programs such as the Canada Emergency Response Benefit and the wage subsidy expire and the economy recovers, Canada's debt-to-GDP ratio should "stabilize."

"However, if some of the measures are extended or are made permanent, the federal debt ratio could keep rising," Giroux warned.

When pressed on Canada’s plan for its economic recovery, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has not given reporters any indication of what steps will be taken to heal the bruised economy and shrink the rising deficit.

"There will be time after this is all done as we figure out how exactly this unfolds, where we will have to make next decisions on how that recovery looks," Trudeau said during a news conference on April 30, the day the initial $252-billion figure was released from the PBO's office.


"But right now our focus is on getting through this together as a country."

However, Giroux said there is something the government can do now to help with forecasting economic damage and understanding the steps that will need to be taken in the path to economic recovery. He wants the government to provide a fiscal update.

"The government probably has in mind a sense of how much it wants to spend on potential stimulus measures, but we don’t have that information," Giroux said.

On May 4, when Trudeau was pressed about whether the government will provide its budget anytime soon, he said the government has no timeline for sharing that kind of fiscal information at the moment.

"We'll find ways to share this with you but we have not yet been able to determine what the best way is of looking at a budget or an economic update or maybe another way of sharing information with Canadians about what we foresee for the months to come," Trudeau said.

However, he did say the government is open to different ways of communicating economic information with Canadians.

"Nothing is off the table," Trudeau said.

www.ctvnews.ca/politics/pbo-not-unthinkable-that-federal-debt-could-hit-1-trillion-this-fiscal-year-1.4936622

[GNick99]

It is going to be devastating to many countries. I have had a bad year. The year 2020 actually is one of my worst ever. You can tell by how much I am on here I am shut down. On top of that many of my investments are stalled. Getting hit from many angles. There are many mes out there I would imagine.

Covid 19 is going to change the future of the world. Travel, I cannot see being the same for many years. The large stockpile of oil is going to be devastating to many countries. I need to find an angle to gain from this? lol How will people spent their money in the future? Once this virus has passed of course I mean.

On National, last night a vaccine could be getting close. A Montreal company has one close to trials. In coming months Dalhousie University is going to be offering injections to volunteers. If goes good, could see vaccine available to public as early as Dec. 1st. A U of Waterloo is working on a nasal spray.

[PTH]

May 13, 2020 6:38:28 GMT -5 GNick99 said:

Covid 19 is going to change the future of the world. Travel, I cannot see being the same for many years.

Yup. The Atlantic had a good article about this, and many others about a post-Covid world.

In Jan 2019 I took 7 weeks to do a world tour - Beijing, Cambodia, Thailand, India, Dubaï, Egypt, Instanbul and Amsterdam. I don't think that kind of a trip will be possible for a long time, it will be long enough before just a simple Montreal-Paris flight is doable.

The large stockpile of oil is going to be devastating to many countries.

Well, the world didn't have that much stocking capacity, so once demand ramps up, I expect prices will recover quickly enough, maybe not enough for tar sands to make economic sense. And it's not like the lower cost of gas will have caused an investment in hybrids...

I need to find an angle to gain from this? lol How will people spent their money in the future? Once this virus has passed of course I mean.

If you figure it out, I'm trying to figure this out too. I want to say Netflix, but they've had too much of a monopoly to date, and could face increasing competition.

On National, last night a vaccine could be getting close. A Montreal company has one close to trials. In coming months Dalhousie University is going to be offering injections to volunteers. If goes good, could see vaccine available to public as early as Dec. 1st. A U of Waterloo is working on a nasal spray.

I don't believe in any of these claims, everyone wants to make it seem like they've got something to announced, that they're in the forefront of research, etc. But I figure it'll be a while before anything is safe to distribute widely.

[franko]

May 13, 2020 11:32:50 GMT -5 PTH said:

In Jan 2019 I took 7 weeks to do a world tour - Beijing, Cambodia, Thailand, India, Dubaï, Egypt, Instanbul and Amsterdam. I don't think that kind of a trip will be possible for a long time, it will be long enough before just a simple Montreal-Paris flight is doable.

this is what is going to kill me. we had a 5 country European tour planned . . . just glad we didn't buy our tickets yet!

Well, the world didn't have that much stocking capacity, so once demand ramps up, I expect prices will recover quickly enough, maybe not enough for tar sands to make economic sense. And it's not like the lower cost of gas will have caused an investment in hybrids...

oil sands, my friend, oil sands.

as much as it grates on Mr. Trudeau, Ms. May, and M. Blanchet, Canada is still a country of “hewers of wood and drawers of water” -- and of drillers for oil. I find it fascinating that so many are opposed to Alberta's "dirty oil" and of shipping the same to other countries that want it while accepting and using Saudi oil which is shipped from a country with "questionable" human rights. Add to that the fact that oil generated power powers the plants that make hybrids and EVs (because wind and solar cannot, and they are against nuclear as well) and the fact that there is not near enough green energy capacity and . . . well, perhaps this is a discussion for a different day and a different thread.

but we can't fly without the oil that is being produced, so it's a double-edged sword.

I don't believe in any of these claims, everyone wants to make it seem like they've got something to announced, that they're in the forefront of research, etc. But I figure it'll be a while before anything is safe to distribute widely.

with you there, so we need to just keep going slow, as difficult as that may be

[Cranky]

May 13, 2020 12:06:06 GMT -5 franko said:

this is what is going to kill me. we had a 5 country European tour planned . . . just glad we didn't buy our tickets yet!

How about not being able to see my 102 year old father?

May 13, 2020 12:06:06 GMT -5 franko said:

oil sands, my friend, oil sands.

as much as it grates on Mr. Trudeau, Ms. May, and M. Blanchet, Canada is still a country of “hewers of wood and drawers of water” -- and of drillers for oil. I find it fascinating that so many are opposed to Alberta's "dirty oil" and of shipping the same to other countries that want it while accepting and using Saudi oil which is shipped from a country with "questionable" human rights. Add to that the fact that oil generated power powers the plants that make hybrids and EVs (because wind and solar cannot, and they are against nuclear as well) and the fact that there is not near enough green energy capacity and . . . well, perhaps this is a discussion for a different day and a different thread.

but we can't fly without the oil that is being produced, so it's a double-edged sword.

Let's throw one of our biggest industries, actually, 10% of our GDP and 300,000 employees under the bus while pretending the economy can sustain infinite cheques from the infinite imagination of Checkbook Santa.

I know a thing or ten, or closer to 26 million "things" about wind and solar (you know what I was up to). It's pure enviro fantasy even with a unicorn megawhat batteries that will never be invented. Think about covering every corner of every square mile of Ontario with MASSIVE wind turbines. ALL of Ontario, right up to Hudson Bay. Or how about clear cutting half the Ontario forest for solar panels? Of course, there is always the "oh my God" nuclear that is also eco verbotten.

Very few people understand or realize how much total energy our society uses. Gas in the car or electricity in the house are fractions of the overall energy we use. To replace it with wind and/or solar is pure fantasy....closer to believing in unicorns then any reality. Unless those dilithium crystals are around the corner, about the only way even remotely possible is through nuclear. Think about 20-25 Pickering plants.

Or....there is something to be said about living in a 10x10 foot cube......and Soylent Green.....*slurp*

May 13, 2020 12:06:06 GMT -5 franko said:

with you there, so we need to just keep going slow, as difficult as that may be

It "should" be closer then "years". The tech is there and it's a matter of testing to make sure future generation of children do not grow horns. Do not want a repeat of thalidomide disaster. Chinese government is not going to worry too much about human cost, so I would be weary about anything coming from them.

[Cranky]

May 13, 2020 6:38:28 GMT -5 GNick99 said:

It is going to be devastating to many countries. I have had a bad year. The year 2020 actually is one of my worst ever. You can tell by how much I am on here I am shut down. On top of that many of my investments are stalled. Getting hit from many angles. There are many mes out there I would imagine.

Covid 19 is going to change the future of the world. Travel, I cannot see being the same for many years. The large stockpile of oil is going to be devastating to many countries. I need to find an angle to gain from this? lol How will people spent their money in the future? Once this virus has passed of course I mean.

On National, last night a vaccine could be getting close. A Montreal company has one close to trials. In coming months Dalhousie University is going to be offering injections to volunteers. If goes good, could see vaccine available to public as early as Dec. 1st. A U of Waterloo is working on a nasal spray.

I'm either going to take multiple 7 figure hits or wait several years for full value. Either take the dollar hurt or wait the time that I don't have....so be it.

I'm more concerned about a viable economy and dollar. Right now, I have seen the dollar plunge against the Euro, even though the European countries have suffered far more/worse and Italy is on the brink. There is a high chance there will be no Euro in a few years, yet our dollar has plunged. Let's try debting another trillion and see what happens......

I have seen all this before. Greece is not Canada, but there are lessons no one wants to learn about debt. Including the middle class and poor getting absolutely devastated. Worse, Greece had the EU they could blackmail, we are on our own......

[GNick99]

Tesla going to split 5 to 1. I am in seventh heaven today. Waiting on pins and needles to see how it goes. Should be big. Tesla been good to me since about last October Halloween time .

[GNick99]

TSLA jumped to $1,836 today. It's all time high. No doubt on antipaction of upcoming stock split.

[GNick99]

A lot of celebration going on around home this weekend. Tesla broke $2,000. Making 10 times growth since I bought in. Back in '16 for $198 a share. I have made touch over $400,000 on that stock in less than 4 years. I never dreamt I could do that. It has been fabulous ride.

With market value so high I often wonder can it go much higher? It is crazy out there.

[seventeen]

Next round is on you, Gnick. .

Congrats. We all deserve good news in our lives.

[Tankdriver]

Aug 23, 2020 12:19:19 GMT -5 GNick99 said:

A lot of celebration going on around home this weekend. Tesla broke $2,000. Making 10 times growth since I bought in. Back in '16 for $198 a share. I have made touch over $400,000 on that stock in less than 4 years. I never dreamt I could do that. It has been fabulous ride.

With market value so high I often wonder can it go much higher? It is crazy out there.

Damm nice buy! I would sell some of it. Keep a portion in Tesla and find something else that is in the infant state and do the same thing you did in 2016. Then take mrs Gnick out for a nice evening on the town, nice hotel, etc. and give her a shinny gift.

[Cranky]

A lesson i learned from Greece....

The Greeks were doing fine, borrowing and living beyond their means until their housing bubble burst. Then the house of cards collapsed. Their housing prices went down by 50% and they still couldn't sell.

In Canada we have a severe housing bubble that just can't sustain itself. When that collapses, it will take 15% to 20% of the GDP with it. To stabilize it you need trillions, which we don't have.

Here how it works.....the Canadian economy starts to wobble, which it's doing RIGHT NOW, investors start having concerns about our dollar. They start to shy away or dump our dollar. When the dollar gets dumped, it's value starts collapsing. To save the value of the dollar, you must increase interest rates. The interest rate hikes will support the dollar but starts collapsing the housing bubble.

So it's either collapsing dollar and runaway inflation or save the dollar with higher rates and collapse the real estate bubble.

These are the LAWS AND CONSEQUENCES OF ECONOMIC REALITY. It's been repeated many times over in many places. Canada is not a unicorn filled exception.

Because the Greeks were using a currency they didn't control, ALL of their collapse hit their economy. The EU bailed them out three times and poured billions into Greece. Yet, their unemployment hit 25%, suicides skyrocketed and dumpster diving became a thing. It's now year 12, repeat, twelve years and still no end in sight.

With our own dollar, there wont be any "rich country" that will save us. The dollar will take the entire brunt and consequences. WE will pay the price in a 60..if not a 50 cent dollar....and inflation.

That head of lettuce looks less yummy at $10 a head.

So....the four words..BE AWARE AND PREPARE.

[GNick99]

Aug 29, 2020 13:49:19 GMT -5 Cranky said:

A lesson i learned from Greece....

The Greeks were doing fine, borrowing and living beyond their means until their housing bubble burst. Then the house of cards collapsed. Their housing prices went down by 50% and they still couldn't sell.

In Canada we have a severe housing bubble that just can't sustain itself. When that collapses, it will take 15% to 20% of the GDP with it. To stabilize it you need trillions, which we don't have.

Here how it works.....the Canadian economy starts to wobble, which it's doing RIGHT NOW, investors start having concerns about our dollar. They start to shy away or dump our dollar. When the dollar gets dumped, it's value starts collapsing. To save the value of the dollar, you must increase interest rates. The interest rate hikes will support the dollar but starts collapsing the housing bubble.

So it's either collapsing dollar and runaway inflation or save the dollar with higher rates and collapse the real estate bubble.

These are the LAWS AND CONSEQUENCES OF ECONOMIC REALITY. It's been repeated many times over in many places. Canada is not a unicorn filled exception.

Because the Greeks were using a currency they didn't control, ALL of their collapse hit their economy. The EU bailed them out three times and poured billions into Greece. Yet, their unemployment hit 25%, suicides skyrocketed and dumpster diving became a thing. It's now year 12, repeat, twelve years and still no end in sight.

With our own dollar, there wont be any "rich country" that will save us. The dollar will take the entire brunt and consequences. WE will pay the price in a 60..if not a 50 cent dollar....and inflation.

That head of lettuce looks less yummy at $10 a head.

So....the four words..BE AWARE AND PREPARE.

Housing market is major indicator of futures. I remember when American housing market started to down turn in 2007. Seen Lehman brothers and near collapse of American economy in 2008.

I am not concerned with Tesla, it may take slight downturn but in long term I still believe. I got in 4 years ago because of Musk success in past and their software is so cutting edge technology.

You are talking market in general. Over the long term the market always thrives. The day I was born DOW was a little over 700. Today it is trading a little over 28 and a half. That is pretty large sample size. Around 57 years. It that time market has endured pandemics, Sept 11, gas shortage, 2 Iraq wars, a Cold War, among several other downturns in the economy. Still turned out a 40 times increase.

[GNick99]

TSLA taking a beating last 2 days. I am down over $45,000 since start of week. It is up though 6.5% this morning in pre market trading. I figured this was coming as market value was crazy high. Way higher than Toyota their next nearest auto maker. TSLA still hasn't turned a profit.

My friend from high school, Timmy, says relax, look you are up still 8x since October 20/19. I know but I was up 11x middle of last week.

[Tankdriver]

Sept 9, 2020 5:42:55 GMT -5 GNick99 said:

TSLA taking a beating last 2 days. I am down over $45,000 since start of week. It is up though 6.5% this morning in pre market trading. I figured this was coming as market value was crazy high. Way higher than Toyota their next nearest auto maker. TSLA still hasn't turned a profit.

My friend from high school, Timmy, says relax, look you are up still 8x since October 20/19. I know but I was up 11x middle of last week.

So in the end you didn't sell a portion a few weeks ago?

[franko]

Sept 9, 2020 5:42:55 GMT -5 GNick99 said:

TSLA taking a beating last 2 days. I am down over $45,000 since start of week. It is up though 6.5% this morning in pre market trading. I figured this was coming as market value was crazy high. Way higher than Toyota their next nearest auto maker. TSLA still hasn't turned a profit.

My friend from high school, Timmy, says relax, look you are up still 8x since October 20/19. I know but I was up 11x middle of last week.

listen to Timmy lol. you're in it for the long term. AND YOU'RE UP!

In March my RSP mutual lost 25%. I knew people that were losing and sold funds because they didn't want to lose any more money. Although things are still bouncing around but I'm back in the black and they are regretting selling.

[Willie Dog]

Sept 9, 2020 9:00:12 GMT -5 franko said:

Sept 9, 2020 5:42:55 GMT -5 GNick99 said:

TSLA taking a beating last 2 days. I am down over $45,000 since start of week. It is up though 6.5% this morning in pre market trading. I figured this was coming as market value was crazy high. Way higher than Toyota their next nearest auto maker. TSLA still hasn't turned a profit.

My friend from high school, Timmy, says relax, look you are up still 8x since October 20/19. I know but I was up 11x middle of last week.

listen to Timmy lol. you're in it for the long term. AND YOU'RE UP!

In March my RSP mutual lost 25%. I knew people that were losing and sold funds because they didn't want to lose any more money. Although things are still bouncing around but I'm back in the black and they are regretting selling.

In April I diversified a bit and moved some of my precious metal money to energy and energy is up about 70%... so I'm happy with that... not Tesla happy... but happy none the less

[PTH]

Sept 9, 2020 15:51:21 GMT -5 Willie Dog said:

Sept 9, 2020 9:00:12 GMT -5 franko said:

listen to Timmy lol. you're in it for the long term. AND YOU'RE UP!

In March my RSP mutual lost 25%. I knew people that were losing and sold funds because they didn't want to lose any more money. Although things are still bouncing around but I'm back in the black and they are regretting selling.

In April I diversified a bit and moved some of my precious metal money to energy and energy is up about 70%... so I'm happy with that... not Tesla happy... but happy none the less

I bought a ton on what seemed like a mild dip at the end of February. I'm very much back in the black now.

Everything I've read says it's not that hard to sell at the right time, but reinvesting at the right time is just about impossible. Staying invested with passive indexes is the way to go. Minimal fees, frauds can't completely wipe you out (like for Nortel investors), and no timing required.

[GNick99]

Sept 9, 2020 9:00:12 GMT -5 franko said:

Sept 9, 2020 5:42:55 GMT -5 GNick99 said:

TSLA taking a beating last 2 days. I am down over $45,000 since start of week. It is up though 6.5% this morning in pre market trading. I figured this was coming as market value was crazy high. Way higher than Toyota their next nearest auto maker. TSLA still hasn't turned a profit.

My friend from high school, Timmy, says relax, look you are up still 8x since October 20/19. I know but I was up 11x middle of last week.

listen to Timmy lol. you're in it for the long term. AND YOU'RE UP!

In March my RSP mutual lost 25%. I knew people that were losing and sold funds because they didn't want to lose any more money. Although things are still bouncing around but I'm back in the black and they are regretting selling.

Yup, she came back up yesterday. Been quite the wild ride. Closed $371 today, split adjusted be 1,850. Plus up a smidgen in after markets.

As long as Trump stays in markets will thrive. My opinion anyway. So far he has done everything to spur them on. From bail out packages to airlines, tax cuts for super investors to lowering interest rates. No doubt he has major incentive to keep markets thriving.

[GNick99]

Elon Musk was online other day. Saying he is expecting in 20 years for electric vehicles to be majority of vehicles on the road. Expects around 5% growth each year, for next 20 years. He said will put strain on demand for electricity. Be good time to research some electric companies. I also know now why he bought solar city.

[Willie Dog]

In March my guy move some of my gold and precious metal to energy and it's up over 120% since then... wish i moved more over

[Tankdriver]

Dec 5, 2020 10:09:35 GMT -5 Willie Dog said:

In March my guy move some of my gold and precious metal to energy and it's up over 120% since then... wish i moved more over

Ever used quest trade? I'm looking to shift my assets around a bit. I have been setting aside some cash for an emergency fund since this covid situation has begun and it is sitting in a savings account doing nothing so thinking of setting up a TFSA doing some ETF trades. What are you guys using?

[Willie Dog]

Dec 6, 2020 1:24:30 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

Dec 5, 2020 10:09:35 GMT -5 Willie Dog said:

In March my guy move some of my gold and precious metal to energy and it's up over 120% since then... wish i moved more over

Ever used quest trade? I'm looking to shift my assets around a bit. I have been setting aside some cash for an emergency fund since this covid situation has begun and it is sitting in a savings account doing nothing so thinking of setting up a TFSA doing some ETF trades. What are you guys using?

I have a advisor at CIBC. My son is an advisor but he not allowed to look after my investments...

[PTH]

Dec 6, 2020 10:19:08 GMT -5 Willie Dog said:

Dec 6, 2020 1:24:30 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

Ever used quest trade? I'm looking to shift my assets around a bit. I have been setting aside some cash for an emergency fund since this covid situation has begun and it is sitting in a savings account doing nothing so thinking of setting up a TFSA doing some ETF trades. What are you guys using?

I have a advisor at CIBC. My son is an advisor but he not allowed to look after my investments...

I'm an indexer, and I stay away from all advisors: there are Nobel prizes won by economists proving that advisors add no value; I think for planning, emotion control and tax optimization they can have their place but I manage all that on my own.

I've got European/international stocks in my TFSA ETF since you can't get the withholding tax back regardless of where those are, whereas for US ETFs if they're in an RRSP you don't lose that 30% off your dividends.

It's kind of insane that I bought tons of stuff just before the pandemic really hit, and I'm still making money this year on those investments.

[Willie Dog]

Dec 8, 2020 10:15:05 GMT -5 PTH said:

Dec 6, 2020 10:19:08 GMT -5 Willie Dog said:

I have a advisor at CIBC. My son is an advisor but he not allowed to look after my investments...

I'm an indexer, and I stay away from all advisors: there are Nobel prizes won by economists proving that advisors add no value; I think for planning, emotion control and tax optimization they can have their place but I manage all that on my own.

I've got European/international stocks in my TFSA ETF since you can't get the withholding tax back regardless of where those are, whereas for US ETFs if they're in an RRSP you don't lose that 30% off your dividends.

It's kind of insane that I bought tons of stuff just before the pandemic really hit, and I'm still making money this year on those investments.

I'm ok with having an advisor, it's like anything, you have good and you have bad... I've heard real horror stories about advisors and I've heard great stories too.

All I know is wouldn't have put money in energy funds at the start of the pandemic, I'm glad he suggested them to me. He also suggested gold and precious metals a while ago and they have done very well also.

[Cranky]

Dec 9, 2020 14:00:14 GMT -5 Willie Dog said:

I'm ok with having an advisor, it's like anything, you have good and you have bad... I've heard real horror stories about advisors and I've heard great stories too.

All I know is wouldn't have put money in energy funds at the start of the pandemic, I'm glad he suggested them to me. He also suggested gold and precious metals a while ago and they have done very well also.

Be careful with energy stock. Biden has already said he will try to shut down "tar sands oil" and i suspect he will nod in senile agreement to the whacky end of his far left wing Oil is Death.

If he gets the Senate, duck....