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Post by habsorbed on Jun 27, 2020 15:03:58 GMT -5
It will be interesting to see if any of the play-in teams will trade their first round pick which has suddenly increased significantly in value, if only mathematically? It is not unusual for a gm to go after a 1st rounder of a lousy team knowing full well that the pick would be subject to the lottery and in most cases result in a worse than 12.5% chance of getting the top pick. Whether the play-ins proceed or not will no doubt impact all this, but for the worst 8 play-in teams they have a pretty good asset now, and the other 8 certainly have a more valuable asset now then they did yesterday.
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Post by The Habitual Fan on Jun 27, 2020 15:26:26 GMT -5
This was so obviously rigged it’s not funny, ... The NHL basically joins the realm of the WWE. But even the WWE draws the balls in front of a live audience If it is rigged and the Habs get to pick first.....the whole John Scott thing makes Bergeivn would be the greatest GM of ALL TIME!!!!
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Post by folatre on Jun 27, 2020 16:28:11 GMT -5
For sure, there are going to be plenty of teams in Phase 2 (even if the play-ins never happen) that boast far more talented rosters than Montreal. I was wary about that dynamic since the day Bettman unveiled this format. And, no, it does not quite seem fair. But I am trying to keep things in perspective.
Most of the Habs' conference brethren did not have a good night yesterday. Buffalo fell to 8th. New Jersey finally ran out of their usual lottery luck. Ottawa's dreams were dashed. Detroit was dealt a cruel blow. And, moreover, Montreal ends up being alive, remote though it is, for Lafreniere.
Habsorbed, the issue about trades is an interesting one. I would imagine most owners would not allow their GM to trade that pick even if it is only a 1/8 chance of being the winning ticket.
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Post by seventeen on Jun 27, 2020 16:37:49 GMT -5
This was so obviously rigged it’s not funny, ... The NHL basically joins the realm of the WWE. But even the WWE draws the balls in front of a live audience If it is rigged and the Habs get to pick first.....the whole John Scott thing makes Bergeivn would be the greatest GM of ALL TIME!!!! Or the most corrupt.
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Post by seventeen on Jun 27, 2020 16:41:01 GMT -5
For sure, there are going to be plenty of teams in Phase 2 (even if the play-ins never happen) that boast far more talented rosters than Montreal. I was wary about that dynamic since the day Bettman unveiled this format. And, no, it does not quite seem fair. But I am trying to keep things in perspective. Most of the Habs' conference brethren did not have a good night yesterday. Buffalo fell to 8th. New Jersey finally ran out of their usual lottery luck. Ottawa's dreams were dashed. Detroit was dealt a cruel blow. And, moreover, Montreal ends up being alive, remote though it is, for Lafreniere. Habsorbed, the issue about trades is an interesting one. I would imagine most owners would not allow their GM to trade that pick even if it is only a 1/8 chance of being the winning ticket. It is INCREDIBLY LUCKY that some of the most critical markets to the NHL (Montreal, Toronto, NY, Chicago) all have a chance at the #1 pick. Inspector Renaud would have fun with that one. PS. I wonder what Bettman's asking price is?
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Post by folatre on Jun 27, 2020 16:50:00 GMT -5
It is suspicious, jeje.
I know rival fans (I have heard from a couple guys from work) are going to act like Montreal getting Lafreniere would be unfair. My take is that Montreal and Chicago were legitimately bad teams and there is nothing unseemly about one of them winning. I mean, Montreal only won 19 games in regulation play out of the 71 they played, that is putrid, like 29th in the league putrid.
It is a different animal altogether to see the Rangers, the Canes, or the Canucks win it. Those are good teams. And it would be repulsive if teams replete with elite talent like Pittsburgh, Toronto, or Edmonton win it.
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Post by seventeen on Jun 27, 2020 18:59:56 GMT -5
I have the same issues as you with the Canes, TO, Pens and Edmonton winning it. Carolina got the big boost 2 years ago to get Svechnikov. They don't deserve the extra luck. Edmonton's won too many lotteries and with some decent management in place, should be contenders before long.
I don't have an issue with Vancouver getting it. They've had terrible scouting until recently and have gotten screwed a few drafts with teams jumping ahead of them. The fact they have some terrific young players isn't because they had one of the top 3 picks, it;s because their scouting got a hell of a lot better when Judd Brackett was around.
The Habs are actually a team that might be deserving, except for the mantra of rewarding bad behaviour. Team management has been haughty and cheap. Hvind said that the team, and the league, could really use a French Canadian star in Montreal, though and that would make manipulation worth it.
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Post by folatre on Jun 27, 2020 19:25:38 GMT -5
I agree with the points you make, seventeen. I was mainly just defining "deserving" in terms of whether the club had a poor record in 2019-20. For example, in simple terms, I say to myself, Carolina had 81 points in 68 games. That's a good team.
Montreal was a bad team (24th in points percentage, 29th in regulation wins), so objectively a difference maker landing on a bad team should not bother people.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jun 27, 2020 21:16:04 GMT -5
This might backfire on the league ... if the Habs get the pick, on their own turf, no less, there'll be an exhaust blast of indignation and rage, and we'll hear about it for decades ... new Habs folklore to replace the oft-conveniently-misinterpreted "French Canadian Rule" ... there are probably more than a few fans who have bought into the hype of the lottery result, but it'd be interesting to know what the prevailing fan sentiment is across the league ...
Cheers.
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Post by jkr on Jun 27, 2020 21:16:28 GMT -5
I see your logic folatre but it's Montreal so people will look at it with all the built in biases.
Plus the league, with this format, is inviting scepticism.
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Post by seventeen on Jun 27, 2020 21:23:24 GMT -5
I agree with the points you make, seventeen. I was mainly just defining "deserving" in terms of whether the club had a poor record in 2019-20. For example, in simple terms, I say to myself, Carolina had 81 points in 68 games. That's a good team. Montreal was a bad team (24th in points percentage, 29th in regulation wins), so objectively a difference maker landing on a bad team should not bother people. Totally agree. The NHL really doesn't want the worst teams getting those top picks. A team like the Wings should have a better than 18% chance at the #1 choice. But, so easy to use the excuse "to stop teams tanking" to reduce the odds for the bad teams.
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Post by folatre on Jun 27, 2020 22:48:33 GMT -5
This might backfire on the league ... if the Habs get the pick, on their own turf, no less, there'll be an exhaust blast of indignation and rage, and we'll hear about it for decades ... new Habs folklore to replace the oft-conveniently-misinterpreted "French Canadian Rule" ... there are probably more than a few fans who have bought into the hype of the lottery result, but it'd be interesting to know what the prevailing fan sentiment is across the league ... Cheers. For sure, Dis, that is the nature of things. Fans of the other big traditional hockey markets would scream about it because they are old rivals and many of them harbour a historic jealousy toward Montreal owing to the Habs' unparalleled legacy in the league. Fans of small market teams would scream about it because in their mind the narrative that the league favours the big market money clubs seems probable to them. When Toronto tanked in 2015-16 and with an 18 or 19 percent chance of winning the Lottery somehow managed to strike gold with Matthews, my recollection was that most non-Leafs fans on twitter and message boards were hating on the Leafs and claiming the fix was in.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jun 28, 2020 9:33:00 GMT -5
Well, the NHL has achieved its biggest desire out of its convoluted two step draft lottery: it is a big news story. Lots of controversy, but lots of folks are talking about it. And now, in the most bizarre of all circumstances, fans of 16 franchises (and none of the 7 worst from this season) have a chance to see the draft’s biggest prize wear their jersey next season. Whether they even return to play or not, they are the talk of the sports world. The silly play-in series now have bigger significance: you either make the playoffs or else get a 1/8th shot at Lafreniere (don’t tell Molson that the first series is not the playoffs - he keeps mentioning how we are in the playoffs already). You could not have written a weirder or more attention gathering script.
And the weirdest part of all, is I now have to quietly cheer that the Leafs don’t lose to the Blue Jackets in the first round so they don’t get a shot at first overall. Wash my mouth out with soap. Does that mean I have to cheer for them to win?!?! Barf. At least Boston has zero chance.
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Post by jkr on Jun 28, 2020 10:46:38 GMT -5
And the weirdest part of all, is I now have to quietly cheer that the Leafs don’t lose to the Blue Jackets in the first round so they don’t get a shot at first overall. Wash my mouth out with soap. Does that mean I have to cheer for them to win?!?! Barf. At least Boston has zero chance. It's a dangerous game isn't it. I want the Leafs to lose but I don't want them to get another 1st overall. But if they get past Columbus, how far will they go? Last season I chose Boston over Toronto because I despise them a little less than I dislike the Leafs. But then I had to watch the Bruins go all the way to game 7 of the Finals. Ugh!
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Post by BadCompany on Jun 28, 2020 11:14:59 GMT -5
Well, the NHL has achieved its biggest desire out of its convoluted two step draft lottery: it is a big news story. Lots of controversy, but lots of folks are talking about it. And now, in the most bizarre of all circumstances, fans of 16 franchises (and none of the 7 worst from this season) have a chance to see the draft’s biggest prize wear their jersey next season. Whether they even return to play or not, they are the talk of the sports world. The silly play-in series now have bigger significance: you either make the playoffs or else get a 1/8th shot at Lafreniere (don’t tell Molson that the first series is not the playoffs - he keeps mentioning how we are in the playoffs already). You could not have written a weirder or more attention gathering script. And the weirdest part of all, is I now have to quietly cheer that the Leafs don’t lose to the Blue Jackets in the first round so they don’t get a shot at first overall. Wash my mouth out with soap. Does that mean I have to cheer for them to win?!?! Barf. At least Boston has zero chance. Yep. As far as the NHL is concerned, this is the perfect outcome. If no play-in team wins the lottery, then there is no second lottery, which is a missed TV NHL event. Now, with the quality of teams in the 2nd lottery, and the heightened odds of winning it, the 2nd lottery will be Must-See TV. Having the play-in team win 1st overall is even better. Sure, there might have been some grumbling if the 2nd or 3rd spots were won, but certainly not the same as the 1st overall. You say "1st overall" and people sit up and listen in a way they wouldn't with "3rd overall". I follow football writers on Twitter, and they're talking about it. I doubt they would be with a 3rd overall pick. Throw in "1st overall in a year where the 1st overall is head and shoulders better than the 2nd" and now you've got drama. Now add in the play-in round, and the fact that some very good teams are going to have a half-decent shot at getting the first overall, and you've upped the interest in your play-in series. There is something on the line for both the winners, and the losers. Every GM choice, every line-up decision, every referee call, every video review, they will all be interpreted through the lens of "would they do this if Lafreniere wasn't on the line?" The conspiracy theories are already flying around, and they'll only get worse once the games start playing. They'll probably reach a fever pitch once the actual winner is drawn in the 2nd lottery. Can you imagine if there is controversial call against the Rangers that knocks them out... and then they win the 2nd lottery? Whoo-boy. I'm not a big believer in conspiracies, but if I was going to rig this lottery, this is EXACTLY how I would do it. It's going to be a circus. But hey, no such thing as bad publicity, right?
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Post by UberCranky on Jun 28, 2020 12:59:28 GMT -5
There is no conspiracies if we win the Laffy sweepstakes. None. Zero. Those pictures i have of him dressed in latex....they were just a bit of good fun....
Between this draft and the chance of this "playoffs" getting derailed with a second wave, i would think tjat the NHL will hit rock bottom in credibility. On the other hand, wrestling has zero and makes millions so what exactly does credibility mean and who takes it THAT seriously when millionaires are paid by billionaires to play a game to.....entertain.
What's next? Shirley they can do more in the imtermission to entertain. Pole dancing, circus clowns and height challanged person tossing...something for everyone.
Just spend your money....
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Post by seventeen on Jun 28, 2020 14:04:32 GMT -5
[ As far as the NHL is concerned, this is the perfect outcome. If no play-in team wins the lottery, then there is no second lottery, which is a missed TV NHL event. Now, with the quality of teams in the 2nd lottery, and the heightened odds of winning it, the 2nd lottery will be Must-See TV. Having the play-in team win 1st overall is even better. Sure, there might have been some grumbling if the 2nd or 3rd spots were won, but certainly not the same as the 1st overall. You say "1st overall" and people sit up and listen in a way they wouldn't with "3rd overall". I follow football writers on Twitter, and they're talking about it. I doubt they would be with a 3rd overall pick. Throw in "1st overall in a year where the 1st overall is head and shoulders better than the 2nd" and now you've got drama. Now add in the play-in round, and the fact that some very good teams are going to have a half-decent shot at getting the first overall, and you've upped the interest in your play-in series. There is something on the line for both the winners, and the losers. Every GM choice, every line-up decision, every referee call, every video review, they will all be interpreted through the lens of "would they do this if Lafreniere wasn't on the line?" The conspiracy theories are already flying around, and they'll only get worse once the games start playing. They'll probably reach a fever pitch once the actual winner is drawn in the 2nd lottery. Can you imagine if there is controversial call against the Rangers that knocks them out... and then they win the 2nd lottery? Whoo-boy. I'm not a big believer in conspiracies, but if I was going to rig this lottery, this is EXACTLY how I would do it. It's going to be a circus. But hey, no such thing as bad publicity, right? I'd like to see the CCTV footage of the draw, plase.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Jun 28, 2020 15:54:03 GMT -5
This might backfire on the league ... if the Habs get the pick, on their own turf, no less, there'll be an exhaust blast of indignation and rage, and we'll hear about it for decades ... new Habs folklore to replace the oft-conveniently-misinterpreted "French Canadian Rule" ... there are probably more than a few fans who have bought into the hype of the lottery result, but it'd be interesting to know what the prevailing fan sentiment is across the league ... Cheers. BUT can he play a 200 foot game?
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Post by PTH on Jun 29, 2020 15:07:21 GMT -5
Habsorbed, the issue about trades is an interesting one. I would imagine most owners would not allow their GM to trade that pick even if it is only a 1/8 chance of being the winning ticket. I don't think owners care, to them draft picks are just draft picks... results, contracts and established stars are the only things owners really care about. If a GM makes a deal to get an impact player and gives up the pick in the process, it's at least 3 years before we can say it was a bad bet, and 3 years is an eternity in this league. Kind of like the same way I think while most fans would prefer a 12.5% chance at Lafrenière, I'm sure Molson would prefer a playoff participation and being able to rally around that.
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Post by UberCranky on Jun 29, 2020 17:28:46 GMT -5
We won 17 games in the regular season....but are going to win 19 in the playoffs to get the ClusterPuck Cup? I'm not sure that 100 to 1 is even close to describing the improbability of that happening. It would make the 93 win like a sure bet.
Here is my problem.....we win the series against the Pins and land up 16th in the draft?
I rather lose 100% and get 1st or 9th then win against the Pins and get smoked against Caps. We land up with 16th choice which pretty much means an average NHLer. Does 9th to 16th mean that much of a difference. Well, after checking a TSN chart, maybe not.....
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Post by folatre on Jun 29, 2020 18:08:22 GMT -5
PTH, normally I would agree that Molson would take any post-season hockey, no matter how short the cameo, because home gates are enormous with wildly overpriced game tickets, beer and hot dogs, team merchandise, etc. This year the calculus is a bit different.
Also, I may have misunderstood what habsorbed was proposing. I thought he meant that a GM may gamble and trade their first round pick this summer without for instance knowing if it will be #1 or #9 (something like the day after Pittsburgh eliminates Montreal and five days before Phase 2 of the Lottery, Bergevin calls Bob Murray and says hey Bobby are you feeling lucky I'll trade you our first round pick for Fowler. And my assumption is that Molson would not allow his GM to trade the pick.
Cranky, totally agree, cien por ciento. The Habs are not built to make any sort of a run (for God sake, Bergevin sold pieces at the deadline) and continue to be in desperate need of offensive difference-makers. In this particular draft, the odds of snaring an offensive difference-maker is way better at #9 than #16.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Jun 29, 2020 20:19:42 GMT -5
PTH, normally I would agree that Molson would take any post-season hockey, no matterRes. how short the cameo, because home gates are enormous with wildly overpriced game tickets, beer and hot dogs, team merchandise, etc. This year the calculus is a bit different. Also, I may have misunderstood what habsorbed was proposing. I thought he meant that a GM may gamble and trade their first round pick this summer without for instance knowing if it will be #1 or #9 (something like the day after Pittsburgh eliminates Montreal and five days before Phase 2 of the Lottery, Bergevin calls Bob Murray and says hey Bobby are you feeling lucky I'll trade you our first round pick for Fowler. And my assumption is that Molson would not allow his GM to trade the pick. Cranky, totally agree, cien por ciento. The Habs are not built to make any sort of a run (for God sake, Bergevin sold pieces at the deadline) and continue to be in desperate need of offensive difference-makers. In this particular draft, the odds of snaring an offensive difference-maker is way better at #9 than #16. The regular season means nothing. 2020 wasn’t finished and nobody cares. The 2021 season may not start until 2022. Why not cancel next years regular season and just start the playoffs with all teams participating Instead of rewarding bad teams with high draft picks, relegate the worst teams to the AHL and promote the best AHL teams. Much more fair and it discourages tanking. It also makes the games more interesting for the bottom dwelling teams struggling to avoid relegation. Works for the Premier League and much more equitable. Alternately we could eliminate the playoffs and make the regular season mean something. So far outside the box we could never go back in this expanding universe. In the words of Woody Allen, “the universe is so big it becomes difficult for people like me who forget where they put things”.
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