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Post by UberCranky on Jun 29, 2020 17:57:12 GMT -5
I was wondering what the value of drafting first relative to the rest was and lo and behold...a chart by TSN. Let's say we did win the Laffy sweepstakes. Great. No hab fan would ever dream of trading that draft pick away. But I always have this little voice in my head saying, "what would Pollock do?" What this graph tells us....let's say Laffy has a value of 100 and the Sens really, really want him. So....our draft value is 100% and they have a draft value for 3rd and 5th of 75% and 48%. On paper, we would gain two players with a potential of being top4-D/top6-O versus one player that may be a star or a superstar....or a really good player. So far, everyone would say no....but what if it involved a third player? Let's say the Hens threw in Logan Brown? With a Joe Thornton Lite potential? You now have 3 NHL players that are likely top 4d and top 6 offense that are 20 and under....so we have Brown, Byfield, Drysdale/Hotlz joining Suzuki, Kk, Romanov, Poehling, Caufield, Liskanen, Primeau, Brook, Harris, Norlinder and whoever develops. Does that sound like a whole bunch of potential dynasty? Still no? What would Pollock do? Just asking..... Here is the link where this comes from. www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks/
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Post by folatre on Jun 29, 2020 18:34:33 GMT -5
It always depends on the draft year. In a draft year with profile of 2020, it is not crazy to imagine that #3 and #5 (let's say a first line wing and a first pair d-man) hold more value than a franchise type building block (though not likely a generational talent) at #1.
After Phase 2 of the Lottery, the winner may give Dorion a call just to cover all bases or Dorion may give the winner a call to see if it is possible. However, if the winner is Montreal, then it would be a non-starter. Molson would not allow Bergevin to make that trade even if he wanted to based on rational compelling analysis. Lafreniere as a Quebecois superstar would mean so much to fans in the province and he would also mean millions of dollars per year from a marketing standpoint.
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Post by UberCranky on Jun 29, 2020 18:50:49 GMT -5
For the Hens, it would have to start with Chabot to satisfy that French "star" player and then an add in. Byfield and Chabot? Top 6 forward and top 10 in the league young left defenseman?
But then, why would the Sens do that unless.....it's about saving money on Chabots contract.
IF we do win the Laffy sweepstakes, it ends there, but, any smart manager should exploit every possibility out there. The Hens have a cheapstake of an owner and it's Bbinz duty as a human being to exploit that weakness. Of course, a swing to the fences could also mean that we lost Beliveau V2 and THAT will not sit well with fans for a generation. Or maybe we lost a Pierre Turgeon. Always got his points, but never the franchise superstar.
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Post by folatre on Jun 29, 2020 19:20:19 GMT -5
Interesting wrinkle, i had not thought about Chabot. If we are talking Chabot and the #3 (Byfield or Stutzle), that would be considerably more tempting for reasons both hockey and non-hockey related.
Though you are right, it does not seem very wise from a hockey point of view for the Sens to do something like that.
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Post by seventeen on Jun 29, 2020 19:22:22 GMT -5
Here's the rub (to steal from Shakespeare)....I think it's a tight call between Chabot and Lafreniere. Chabot is not only really good, he's a defenseman and the NHL values defensemen and centres WAAAAAYYY more than wingers, even wingers as good as Lafreniere. I suspect Ottawa would rather give up their two picks than Chabot.
As folatre points out, the value of those picks really depends on the draft. Was Nico Hischier that much better than Nolan Patrick or Elias Pettersson (in hindsight) or Cale Makar? I'd rather have Pettersson or Makar than Hischier. So that year, the #4 and #5 picks were actually worth more than the #1. Some years, like 2015, the #1 pick is worth more than all the other picks in the draft combined. (Ok maybe an exaggeration given the strength of that draft, but you get the drift). That TSN graph is an average, of the last 10 years or so I think. It's a good representation but you have to use your judgment in addition to the graph. If Lafreniere wasn't a Quebec kid, I might consider it. Two guys in a tier just below Laffer might be worth more than him alone. Or not. It's tough to not go with the clearly best prospect, and impossible when he's a French Canadien stud.
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Post by seventeen on Jun 29, 2020 19:38:20 GMT -5
I couldn't help but put together a team from that 2015 draft
Rantanen - McDavid - Marner Kyle Connor - Eichel- Boeser Debrusk - Barzal - Konecny Kaprizov - Aho - Meier
Chabot - Provorov Werenski - Brandon Carlo Rasmus Andersson - Vince Dunn
Blackwood (some other guy who hasn't developed enough yet)
I'd take that team. I hate to add up the CAP, though.
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Post by folatre on Jun 29, 2020 19:54:56 GMT -5
Seriously!? What a draft at the centre position and not too shabby on the wing and the blue line.
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Post by GNick99 on Jun 30, 2020 5:37:23 GMT -5
Drafting Lafreniere be a hell of a shot in the arm to this organization. We would rocket up to top on NHL futures. With Suzuki, Koktaniemi, Romanov, Caufield, etc... be quite the farm system.
I already am debating who to play Lafreniere with? Like to keep the Tatar/Danault/Gallagher line together. Either he plays with Koktaniemi or Suzuki? Domi and Drouin play well together, so first thoughts are to keep them together. Lafreniere with Suzuki? Flanked by either Armia or Byron. The 4th line be Lekhonen/Evans/either Byron or Armia.
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Post by BadCompany on Jun 30, 2020 7:39:06 GMT -5
I think Sammy would keep the pick.
As Doc Holliday is fond of saying, you're not going to get a battleship for a bunch of row boats. If we have the 1st overall, and the Senators want it, I don't do any deal without Chabot coming back. If they say he's untouchable, then I say thanks for coming, and draft Lafreniere. He is such a fit for this organization at this point in time - skills, size, grit, desire, language, position, etc. - that there is no way I'm dealing him if Chabot isn't coming back. Of course there is always the possibility, perhaps even a good possibility, that Lafreniere is crushed by the pressure of being here, and as such we should try to trade him while his value is through the roof, but that's a chance I'm willing to take. Based on his junior stats he is being projected as producing right around MacKinnon and Huberdeau, two 90+ point players (albeit Huberdeau only once). I'm not giving that up easily.
For me, my starting pitch would be Lafreniere for Chabot, the 3rd, and the 5th overall, but I'd probably accept Chabot and the 5th. Throw in whatever peripherals you want, to make it look better (Lehkonen, 2nd rounders, Ryan, Mete, whatever), but that would be my pitch. Yeah, it's a ridiculously high price to pay for Lafreniere, but can you imagine a line of Lafreniere - Byfield/Stutzle - Tkachuk? What a load that would be to play against for the next ten years. I'd want Chabot and at least the 5th overall in return for giving a divisional rival that.
Either way though, I doubt the Sens are giving up Chabot. They might not even do a one for one deal, so this is probably a moot point (especially since Florida is going to win Bettman's favour the lottery).
As for where I would play Lafreniere, I'd put him on Kotkaniemi's wing, with Caufield eventually taking over the right side. In the meantime:
Tatar - Danault - Gallagher Domi - Suzuki - Drouin Lafreniere - Kotkaniemi - Armia Lehkonen - Poehling - Byron
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Post by UberCranky on Jun 30, 2020 13:58:54 GMT -5
The "giving up" Chabot had to be weighed againt the very real fact of Melnyk making Ballard look like Santa.
It's not a hard sell, nee, flout that they now have Tkachuk and Laffy to sell seats. Besides, scoring sells.
Chabot and Byfield. Pollock is whispering his approval in my ear....or it could be Tinnitus.
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Post by Boston_Habs on Jun 30, 2020 14:28:54 GMT -5
When was the last time someone traded the #1 pick?
I say you take Lafreniere if he's the high conviction, high impact player you project. You need the horses to win.
But on the other point, there are probably instances where it would have been smart to trade the #1 pick. It certainly happens in other sports. The Celtics had the #1 pick in the 2017 NBA draft and traded down to #3 and got Jayson Tatum plus an additional pick in subsequent drafts. It worked brilliantly as the guy that went #1 (Markelle Fultz) has been a bust and Boston got the guy they wanted anyway PLUS additional picks.
If the consensus top pick was Nail Yakupov, then maybe you try to trade down and collect more pieces. But if the top pick is a real stud then you don't want to get cute. Take the stud.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jun 30, 2020 15:18:26 GMT -5
Given that Marc Bergevin wants to make the team more identifiable to the fan base, I can't see l'organisation passing on a local, hometown, junior superstar ... but, hey, if anyone wants to see Bergevin fired, trading the 1st overall pick would probably facilitate that, more so if Alexis Lafreniere were to hit his stride right out of the gates ... so, should Montreal end up with the 1st overall pick and for squats and giggles, here are two scenarios ... I tried doing another scenario with LA but ... Scenario A To Montreal |
| To Detroit |
| | | 4th overall pick | | 1st overall pick | Anthony Mantha, LW |
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| Filip Zadina, RW | | |
Scenario B To Montreal | | To Ottawa |
| | | 3rd overall pick |
| 1st overall pick | 5th overall pick |
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| Lassi Thomson, RHD
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| Logan Brown, C
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Post by UberCranky on Jun 30, 2020 15:44:39 GMT -5
Dis..
There has to be French speaking component to that trade.
When i opened the thread, it was about the greatest value in return, but since it's a Quebec born/raised player, no deal.possible with a French star in return. Other then the hens, there isn't a dance partner out there.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jun 30, 2020 15:55:08 GMT -5
Anthony Mantha is a local guy but I see your point ...
Cheers.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Jun 30, 2020 16:01:02 GMT -5
Anthony Mantha is a local guy but I see your point ... Cheers. Sometimes we get carried away with our dreams. Remember, we have a one in eight chance of #1 overall. Still it's nice to dream. The only trade I would approve is one where they take salary along with Lafreniere. Lafreniere and Bergevin for a bag of pucks. I'm almost ready to trade Molson for Melnyk. They are in a 12 foot deep foxhole and they keep digging.
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Post by Tankdriver on Jul 1, 2020 8:47:10 GMT -5
Anthony Mantha is a local guy but I see your point ... Cheers. Sometimes we get carried away with our dreams. Remember, we have a one in eight chance of #1 overall. Still it's nice to dream. The only trade I would approve is one where they take salary along with Lafreniere. Lafreniere and Bergevin for a bag of pucks. I'm almost ready to trade Molson for Melnyk. They are in a 12 foot deep foxhole and they keep digging. Atleast with Melnyk, you know the team will do a proper tear down and rebuild from the bottom up. Molson, makes you think you might have a shot, but you know you won't ever do any damage when it counts.
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Post by franko on Jul 1, 2020 9:52:58 GMT -5
Fixed it for ya.
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