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Post by folatre on Jul 28, 2020 21:36:45 GMT -5
Yikes, Weber played 25 minutes in a totally meaningless game. Julien logic, I suppose.
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Post by UberCranky on Jul 28, 2020 21:37:03 GMT -5
So far...so good.
The power play stunk up the joint and lots of passengers.
Remind me again....where did we finish the season?
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Post by Willie Dog on Jul 28, 2020 21:39:07 GMT -5
They could set a playoff record for most shorthanded goals allowed...
If you thought CJ played not to lose before... after 2 shorties in one game I'm sure he tightened up like a snare drum... lol
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Post by folatre on Jul 28, 2020 21:41:33 GMT -5
Hmmm, 71 points in 71 games, it kind of shows, no?
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Post by UberCranky on Jul 28, 2020 22:10:20 GMT -5
There is no such thing as standing still in hockey. You are either going forward, sideways or backwards. Constant motion and adjustment. If two guys are standing still for a second, it means they have no idea what to do next in terms of putting themselves in position to receive a pass. No structure, no effort. All 6 power plays showed zero structure and determination.
How many times did our forwards watch the third guy do the work. Meanwhile, the Laffs had all the time in the world to cover our pylons.
I can't think of anything positive to say. From mediocre to ice grazing. About the only beacon of hope was Suzuki for ONE play.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 29, 2020 0:21:43 GMT -5
I had some stuff to do during the game (I won't bore you) so taped it and watched it later. Fortunately, because its on a hard drive, I only waste about 1.5 hours instead of 2.5. They didn't look that good, huh? Normally I completely discount exhibition games. Only the bubble guys fighting for a roster spot care at all, but this year is a bit different. The intensity was much higher than it is for exhibition games in a normal season. Lots of rust, of course, but the spirit was there, so perhaps some projections could be made. My greatest frustration is with the coaching. I think we're doomed as long as Julien remains coach. Oh, he has his share of strengths, but some of the frustrating things? Weal - 16:38, Weise - 12:32, Armia - 17:56, Weber - 24:20!, Domi - 18:29, Drouin -17:07. That's not just a list of some of the higher ice times in the game, it's also a list of some of the least effective players in the game. On the flip side. KK - 13:24, Lehkonen - 11:28, Byron - 10:31. Best line on the Habs tonight. Played the least. Other observations. PP: the one goal the Habs got just after the Leafs penalty expired, was an example of what I've been harping about. Suzuki can make those passes across the Royal Road that result in great scoring chances. KK can too. That 2nd Hab goal was all KK, even though he was the 4th guy on the passes. Lehkonen takes a hard shot that is deflected high. KK manages to bring it down, it looks like he could bobble it so 2 Leafs pressure him and he makes a terrific saucer pass to Chiarot. That pass leads to the Leafs running around and Chiarot gets wide open again for a shot that Byron puts in the rebound. If KK doesn't start that breakdown with that sweet pass, nothing happens. The shift before that, he exited the zone and made another great pass to his winger breaking up the middle (through some Leaf legs). Finally he carried the puck over the blue line, drew a couple of Leafs to him and put an awesome backhand through some people to a trailing Petry who failed to deflect it on net (probably because he was surprised the puck even got through). My point is that KK should be playing more. A lot more. More than Weal. More than just 20 seconds more than Weise. More than Domi. At least as much as Suzuki, who appears to be a Julien favourite. There's something very wrong in the coaching bubble in Montreal and ice time is merely a reflection of it. And the #1 PP should have Suzuki and KK on it on the half walls. So simple. What else? Oh yeah...this stat - .826. Price's save percentage. Our secret weapon vs Pittsburgh, remember? .826. I have this nightmare.....Price becomes the back up goalie because just about everyone else is outplaying him. The Habs now have a CAP that's $10.5MM less than every other team in the NHL. That nightmare is not that far off. We keep getting fed stories about Price carrying the team to the promised land, but the reality is that he's not stopping much. Frankly, if he has a sub .900 save percentage in the first game, I go to Primeau. Actually I wouldn't because I have no desire to draft 16th instead of 9th or first. Am I the only guy truly wondering if Price is over the hill? Ok, it was a friendly and he probably wasn't very focused. .826. That's very unfocused. His team was trying, though. There was enough effort. We still looked small. If you're small, you better be fast. The KK line was the one that seemed to have the speed to keep up with the Leafs. The Gallagher line wasn't very good tonight. Tatar and Danault were invisible but perhaps they too were disinterested. That's something the Habs simply cannot afford. That line has to be very good. On the bright side, Matthews didn't kill us like he usually does.
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Post by PTH on Jul 29, 2020 1:30:24 GMT -5
Oh dear.
I think we can count ourselves in the Lafrenière lottery.
I watched it all, thinking we'll be lucky to get more than 9 periods of Habs hockey for the rest of 2020.
Weber seemed. so. slow. Both feet and hands were in deep cement. Many, many others were rusty, Drouin and Tatar sucked at backchecking.
I think we just need to have 2 D out there on the PP. Weber is not the kind of defenseman who can do it all on his own, and he clearly can't cover 2 on 1 situations like a fast D could.
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Post by habsorbed on Jul 29, 2020 1:56:55 GMT -5
No doubt it was an exhibition game: proof is that Gally was uninterested. But it sure looked like the Leafs had been practicing for a month and the Habs had just got together.
CJ's 4th line looked like a 5th line - maybe that's why he said it's not a 4th line. Get Poehling in there!
Good signs for me were KK and Suzuki - i'm talking good signs for the distant future as they have no help now.
Disappointments: Drouin, same old same old floating around and never getting engaged. Danault nowhere to be seen.
One can hope that all the vets approached the game as meaningless and just went through some ugly motions. But I have a sense that this team is what it is: a non-playoff team and should never have been invited to the play-ins.
Lastly, for all the moaning about living with Covid all around us and the pause, the one benefit of the last 4 months was not having to endure these Leaf Love-ins. Hughson and Simpson know this is a national broadcast right?
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Post by UberCranky on Jul 29, 2020 1:59:28 GMT -5
Was it two or was it three rebounds Price gifted for goals?
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Post by Skilly on Jul 29, 2020 5:42:20 GMT -5
. Am I the only guy truly wondering if Price is over the hill? *Ahem* Do I have to go through all my Price analyses again? Luckily, I didn't see the game. Unluckily, we played terribily it seems, we gave up two shorties, Price was worst than average AND we still only lost 4-2 ..
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Post by franko on Jul 29, 2020 6:40:45 GMT -5
for all the moaning about living with Covid all around us and the pause, the one benefit of the last 4 months was not having to endure these Leaf Love-ins. Hughson and Simpson know this is a national broadcast right? someone should have told the intermission folks that too. and what's with Friedman -- or was it him, I couldn't tell.
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Post by jkr on Jul 29, 2020 6:57:32 GMT -5
. Am I the only guy truly wondering if Price is over the hill? *Ahem* Do I have to go through all my Price analyses again? Luckily, I didn't see the game. Unluckily, we played terribily it seems, we gave up two shorties, Price was worst than average AND we still only lost 4-2 .. Well, he is going to be 33 in a few weeks. I think he's got enough to help a good team & give them a lift. But on a poor team he's just not going to make a difference any more.
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Post by jkr on Jul 29, 2020 6:59:04 GMT -5
for all the moaning about living with Covid all around us and the pause, the one benefit of the last 4 months was not having to endure these Leaf Love-ins. Hughson and Simpson know this is a national broadcast right? someone should have told the intermission folks that too. and what's with Friedman -- or was it him, I couldn't tell. I didn't see it. Does Friedman still have that stupid hostage beard? Time for his bosses to tell him to shave or Get off the air.
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Post by Tankdriver on Jul 29, 2020 7:19:28 GMT -5
It was looking like a Joe Thornton Playoff/previous seasons beard. He needs to dye it if he wants to keep it...just stands out too much now.
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Post by BadCompany on Jul 29, 2020 7:54:06 GMT -5
Nobody: ....
Julien: .... we need more Weal on the power-play.
----------
Sheesh. Decline the penalty already. Or play the trap. Or something. Take away those two shorties and... well, we probably still don't win, but at least it's something different to complain about. Look, I like Jordan Weal. I do. I don't have any problems with him on the team. He's versatile, somewhat gritty, tries hard, and has decent vision. But "decent" vision doesn't put him ahead of guys who have good-to-great vision. Weal doesn't bring anything to the power-play that others can't do better, no matter how you draw it up. I'm not one of those guys that think you need to throw your All-Star team out there to have a good power-play, as I think you can design something that makes use of the skill sets that you have. But even if you do that, where does Weal fit in? As a goalie screen we have better options in Gallagher, Armia, or heck, even Weise (who played a strong game last night, I thought). As a puck rusher he's doesn't beat Drouin, Domi, Petry, Mete, Suzuki, Byron... well, lots of guys. He can't outshoot Weber, Petry, Kotkaniemi, Drouin, Armia, Gallagher, Tatar, etc, and as a vision guy, his main skill, he's still behind Kotkaniemi, Suzuki, Drouin, Domi, or even Danault.
In short, he's a good depth guy. Perhaps even a very good depth guy. But he's not a power-play guy, no matter how many times Julien says it.
Having said all that... Jordan Weal wasn't the problem on the power-play. The system was. I don't know if Kirk Muller is in charge of it still, but whoever is spent four months analyzing it and the only change I saw was that instead of a straight drop pass as they cruise through the neutral zone sometimes they'll make a drop pass off the boards instead. Massive confusion, surprisingly, this did not cause. At least not for the Leafs anyways. The main problems, as I see it, are this:
* Puck retrieval off the faceoffs. The stats don't back me up on this, but anecdotally it seems like we lose EVERY power-play opening face-off. Every one. So we lose 20 seconds right off the bat. And we're not a bad face-off team. With an extra man on the ice they should be able to design something that keeps the puck in the offensive zone, instead of trying to skate it back in. Which brings me to the second problem...
* They don't know what to do once they cross the blue line. They can actually get there okay, even over it, but they do so with such slowness that once the puck carrier crosses the line he's all alone. The four other guys on the ice are either behind him, or standing still. The puck carrier just gets swarmed.
Once they get in and get set up they're actually not half-bad. Certainly not the Gretzky Oilers, but not half-bad. Which probably explains why we seem to get more chances late in our power-plays, or even right after they expire. Even the best power-plays need some time to score. But we lose 40-60 seconds every power-play, time which could be spent trying, you know, to score.
Anyways...
* Suzuki and Weise, I thought, were our best forwards. Which says something. If Weise had hands we're talking tie game. Of course if Weise had hands he wouldn't be Weise.
* Byron, Drouin, Armia, all had breakaways or semi-breakaways. This was the new and improved Leafs defensive system?
* I thought Weber was our best defenseman. Which isn't to say I thought he was good, just that in comparison... Ouellet in particular struggled. Mete should excel in games like this, but he seemed strangely shackled. He didn't use his speed at all.
* Speaking of speed, rumors of Jesperi Kotkaniemi's improved speed were greatly exaggerated.
* MAX Domi needs to shoot. (I originally wrote "Tie" - barf) Especially if we're going to play him on the wing. I thought his line, with Weise and Weal, was pretty good all things considered, but he's the finisher on that line, and as such, he needs to shoot. If he's going to play wing, he's going to be playing with a playmaker, like Suzuki, or Kotkaniemi, and thus he needs to shoot. Unless we trade Tatar that is...
* Price was okay, I thought. Rebound control wasn't great, but the defense should have been there.
* Danault line was terrible. Gallagher looked like he doesn't want to finish off this season, and I barely noticed Tatar. Except when he was giving the puck away.
Oh well. Would have been nice to win, and really, if they played half-decently they probably could have. If that was the Leaf's "A" game I think they're going to have a 12.5% chance at Lafreniere.
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Post by PTH on Jul 29, 2020 9:04:05 GMT -5
I should add, I don't think Drouin and Suzuki will ever really mesh. Both like carrying the puck too much for that to work.
Suzuki needs guys like Byron, Armia, Lehkonen, Gallagher or Domi on his wing: guys who can carry the puck if needed, but mostly look to shoot first and ask questions later. That should be this teams motto right now, I recall at least 3 scoring chances muffed by excessive passing once in a scoring position. All goals can't be highlight reel shots into an empty net with a completely turned around goalie...
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Post by UberCranky on Jul 29, 2020 9:28:20 GMT -5
* They don't know what to do once they cross the blue line. They can actually get there okay, even over it, but they do so with such slowness that once the puck carrier crosses the line he's all alone. The four other guys on the ice are either behind him, or standing still. The puck carrier just gets swarmed. Standing still.....there is no such thing as standing still in hockey. Unless you are on a third rate team or don't have a clue on what to do. If a teammate has the puck, your moving to an open position, if the opposition has the puck, your moving to block or intercept. Operative word is MOVING. Back in the early 2000s when I went to hamilton to scout them, I was frustrated to see players like Dagenais so confused that you could actually see him "thinking" what to do next. I coined the term.. ice grazing. Ice grazing is illegal by the time one reaches the NHL. If it's present, then it's either total failure by the coaches OR player. Which brings me to.... We must have drooling morons for coaches because they can't even teach a simple thing like drop passes and zone penetration. When one guy tries to get over the line and 4 guys are barely moving, that isn't failure, that is simply peewee coaching. The closest analogy is like one of those folding cartons. The "power play" has a set up, but we can't get into their zone to set up, so they all stand around waiting for that magic unfolding. I don't care if they lost, but I do care that they lost in a putrid, ugly, gutless manner.
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Post by folatre on Jul 29, 2020 10:00:41 GMT -5
Weal is kind of like the Canadiens in general, glossy CF% while accomplishing pretty much nothing. And the whole power play thing is beyond comprehension, Jordan frickin' Weal had 5 power play points in 97 power play minutes this season. Julien is a stubborn goat.
Fleury was playing well out there in the second period. I have no idea why the coaches went back to Ouellet in the third.
Last night's game does not bring any new level of concern regarding Price for me. The problem is that more or less since he turned 30 years old this is what you get on a fairly regular basis. His save percentage since his new contract kicked in (which, incidentally, coincided with his 30th birthday) is .909, which is okay but certainly nothing special. I do not see him in practice so maybe Engels is right that if fans could see him dominating in practice then they would understand why he is still the best goalie in the league.
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Post by jkr on Jul 29, 2020 10:44:18 GMT -5
I don't get Engels. How does dominating in practice make you great? It is a testimony to your work ethic, certainly, but that's about all.
And hey, take a look at that practice lineup. They aren't the 77 Habs.
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Post by Skilly on Jul 29, 2020 11:25:46 GMT -5
Weal is kind of like the Canadiens in general, glossy CF% while accomplishing pretty much nothing. And the whole power play thing is beyond comprehension, Jordan frickin' Weal had 5 power play points in 97 power play minutes this season. Julien is a stubborn goat. Fleury was playing well out there in the second period. I have no idea why the coaches went back to Ouellet in the third. Last night's game does not bring any new level of concern regarding Price for me. The problem is that more or less since he turned 30 years old this is what you get on a fairly regular basis. His save percentage since his new contract kicked in (which, incidentally, coincided with his 30th birthday) is .909, which is okay but certainly nothing special. I do not see him in practice so maybe Engels is right that if fans could see him dominating in practice then they would understand why he is still the best goalie in the league. He dominates practice, because the Montreal freaking Canadiens are shooting on him ….
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jul 29, 2020 12:21:45 GMT -5
Others have covered the game well, so I will resist repeating. However, this team did look like the 24th seed in a 24 team tourney.
Oh, and despite the totally expected Hughson and Simpson spewfest last night...the Leafs have to be the most over-rated team in this league. I just hope they can squeak by CBJ before someone hands their a$$es to them.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 29, 2020 12:40:02 GMT -5
. Am I the only guy truly wondering if Price is over the hill? *Ahem* Do I have to go through all my Price analyses again? Luckily, I didn't see the game. Unluckily, we played terribily it seems, we gave up two shorties, Price was worst than average AND we still only lost 4-2 .. You've indeed questioned it for a while, Skilly and while I didn't agree, I wondered if it was injuries or something else. There's a good case for considering it as 'something else'. Price can have some games where he is excellent and then others where he gives up that bad goal. Nothing kills teams like bad goals. So all the guys are good teammates and everyone says wonderful things about Price (including opponents), but the simple fact is that his save percentage isn't all that good and hasn't been for a while. Jeeze. That's a situation that's hard to contemplate. Paying your backup goalie $10.5MM a year. And you can't trade him. Who in their right mind would take on an average at best goalie for $5.25MM a year (assuming the Habs retain half the salary)? Untradeable. That's the worst case scenario, and there may still be more left in Price's tank, but we're waiting. I recall the conversations at the time of his contract and there was a lot of varying opinions. I didn't want to go above $6.5MM, but would accept a Lundquist type deal at $8.5. The alternative was trading Price and that would have been fine, even if it would have caused a $hitstorm at the time. Compared to the potential risk today, it would have been well worth it, even without a good prospect in the wings. But that's why you need a good GM, not someone who likes to look good.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 29, 2020 12:49:03 GMT -5
Weal is kind of like the Canadiens in general, glossy CF% while accomplishing pretty much nothing. And the whole power play thing is beyond comprehension, Jordan frickin' Weal had 5 power play points in 97 power play minutes this season. Julien is a stubborn goat. Fleury was playing well out there in the second period. I have no idea why the coaches went back to Ouellet in the third. Last night's game does not bring any new level of concern regarding Price for me. The problem is that more or less since he turned 30 years old this is what you get on a fairly regular basis. His save percentage since his new contract kicked in (which, incidentally, coincided with his 30th birthday) is .909, which is okay but certainly nothing special. I do not see him in practice so maybe Engels is right that if fans could see him dominating in practice then they would understand why he is still the best goalie in the league. He dominates practice, because the Montreal freaking Canadiens are shooting on him …. Chuckle, that was my first thought. Habs had several clear shots from dangerous places yesterday and performed as usual. They're the guys who don't make the cut in the porn movie screen tests. I hadn't heard that line - "dominates practice". Far too much like that other line about the guy who looks so good stepping off the bus.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 29, 2020 13:09:57 GMT -5
Nobody: .... Julien: .... we need more Weal on the power-play. ---------- Having said all that... Jordan Weal wasn't the problem on the power-play. The system was. Anyways... * Suzuki and Weise, I thought, were our best forwards. Which says something. If Weise had hands we're talking tie game. Of course if Weise had hands he wouldn't be Weise. * * I thought Weber was our best defenseman. * Speaking of speed, rumors of J esperi Kotkaniemi's improved speed were greatly exaggerated. * Price was okay, I thought. Rebound control wasn't great, but the defense should have been there.
Sure, I'll debate you on the abovd points. We've had these discussions and I believe Steve Valiquette's research confirms that the best PP's are those that execute passes across the Royal Road. So who do we put out? Jordan Weal. You made some good points about him (I'd trade him, if there was anyone interested) but the simple fact is that he shouldn't be out there as his 5 giant points in oodles of PP time prove. The best passers on the team are Drouin, Kotkaniemi and Suzuki. Drouin is not a fan of dirty areas, so that leaves me with Suzuki and KK. They should both be on the first PP. Weber should not be on the PP at all. I don't care about his shot. Sure he gets a few PP goals, but how many do we miss out on because he can't pass the puck well enough? The PP percentage confirms it. Suzuki, on his assist, shows he can create passing space and then take advantage of it. Kotka made half a dozen superlative passes last night, several of which many people missed. He broke down defenses (ok, ok, I know it was the Leafs), drew an extra guy to him and found the open man. Our second goal was completely due to him. With regard to his speed, I think he is faster. And he's still filling out, IMO. I agree that Dale Weise was one of our better forwards, but stop there and think about it. Dale Weise was more impressive than Tatar, Danault, Drouin, Domi and a few other guys. Dale Weise. I sense a problem. Weber, our best defenseman. That's another problem, of course, but more likely it's another Julien creation. Weber played 24 minutes, much more than any other guy. Why" Who the hell knows? Getting the captain into game shape ASAP? Figuring out Julien is getting more and more difficult. He is just so set in his ways. Kotka was quite possibly the best Hab forward on the ice yesterday and got 13 minutes. That's the way to compliment the kid and give him oodles of confidence, Claude. If he starts putting up points, you better cut his ice time so he doesn't get too big for his britches. Weal played 3 minutes more than KK. Meet Jordan Weal the twenty eight year old, who is the future of the Habs franchise. Price? All I can say is .826. Sheesh.
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Post by frozone on Jul 29, 2020 16:55:24 GMT -5
Nobody: .... Julien: .... we need more Weal on the power-play. ---------- Having said all that... Jordan Weal wasn't the problem on the power-play. The system was. Anyways... * Suzuki and Weise, I thought, were our best forwards. Which says something. If Weise had hands we're talking tie game. Of course if Weise had hands he wouldn't be Weise. * * I thought Weber was our best defenseman. * Speaking of speed, rumors of J esperi Kotkaniemi's improved speed were greatly exaggerated. * Price was okay, I thought. Rebound control wasn't great, but the defense should have been there.
Sure, I'll debate you on the abovd points. We've had these discussions and I believe Steve Valiquette's research confirms that the best PP's are those that execute passes across the Royal Road. So who do we put out? Jordan Weal. You made some good points about him (I'd trade him, if there was anyone interested) but the simple fact is that he shouldn't be out there as his 5 giant points in oodles of PP time prove. The best passers on the team are Drouin, Kotkaniemi and Suzuki. Drouin is not a fan of dirty areas, so that leaves me with Suzuki and KK. They should both be on the first PP. Weber should not be on the PP at all. I don't care about his shot. Sure he gets a few PP goals, but how many do we miss out on because he can't pass the puck well enough? The PP percentage confirms it. Suzuki, on his assist, shows he can create passing space and then take advantage of it. Kotka made half a dozen superlative passes last night, several of which many people missed. He broke down defenses (ok, ok, I know it was the Leafs), drew an extra guy to him and found the open man. Our second goal was completely due to him. With regard to his speed, I think he is faster. And he's still filling out, IMO. I agree that Dale Weise was one of our better forwards, but stop there and think about it. Dale Weise was more impressive than Tatar, Danault, Drouin, Domi and a few other guys. Dale Weise. I sense a problem. Weber, our best defenseman. That's another problem, of course, but more likely it's another Julien creation. Weber played 24 minutes, much more than any other guy. Why" Who the hell knows? Getting the captain into game shape ASAP? Figuring out Julien is getting more and more difficult. He is just so set in his ways. Kotka was quite possibly the best Hab forward on the ice yesterday and got 13 minutes. That's the way to compliment the kid and give him oodles of confidence, Claude. If he starts putting up points, you better cut his ice time so he doesn't get too big for his britches. Weal played 3 minutes more than KK. Meet Jordan Weal the twenty eight year old, who is the future of the Habs franchise. Price? All I can say is .826. Sheesh. Julien is a fun one to try to figure out. The most perplexing of his mysteries is why does he use Weal so much on the powerplay? I've tried my best to rationalize that choice, and all I can muster up is this underwhelming set of arguments: He's ever so slightly better in the faceoff dot than Domi and Suzuki. Also he's a right shot, and Julien seems to overly prioritize handedness. During the regular season, Weal was 10th on the team in PP TOI, yet his On-Ice PP Goals For per 60 min was one rank higher at 9th (5.4 PP GF/60min). It suggests that Julien sees Weal as the 10th best PP option but one could make the argument that he executes as the 9th best PP option. His PP GF/60 was actually twice that of Kotkaniemi's rating of 2.7 GF/60. Regardless, I can "understand" Julien making his decisions based on these stats, but I don't agree with it because at a certain point he needs to look beyond past performance as a way of predicting future results. That's why statistics and probability are two different types of analysis. The PP needs to be fixed and KK's offensive tools have the potential to do just that. Using Weal guarantees that nothing will change. Now for Weal's 5v5 usage, I'll give the coaching staff a pass because, if anything, I think they've overachieved a little bit with this roster. Because let's face it, the Habs don't scare anyone. When the other team's weapons are better than ours, there's a lot of defensive minutes that will need to be played by the Habs 5v5. Julien typically has no choice but to try to neutralize the other team's top 2 or 3 lines and hopefully win the depth game. And I kinda get it... Pick any playoff team and try to match our lines against there's without leaving any of our lines exposed. It's not exactly easy. And for all the complaining about Weal, he only averaged 11:38 per game this season. He's really more of a sacrifice of 0 to 20 minutes per game, ie a warm body that could play relatively neutral 5v5 minutes against any matchup. He might barely play one game, and then get 16 minutes the next. So as a depth player he's really quite versatile. Ain't too shabby shootout record too. But really, this isn't about Weal. This is about everyone wanting to see KK on the ice more often. So would we rather have 16+ minutes of KK playing against the opponent's top 6? Or 12 minutes of KK in a more favourable matchup? Keep in mind that against teams like Toronto, Tampa, Pittsburgh, etc 16+ minutes means that KK would be facing off against elite level centermen for a good chunk of his ice time. I love KK, but the odds of him winning a matchup against Malkin is slim. So anytime we come away saying KK was our best player but only played 12 minutes, it *might* just be that the coaching staff got his matchup right.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 29, 2020 18:12:16 GMT -5
It was the first time the Leafs have beaten the Habs this season, and they looked better than the Habs did last night ... they actually looked more organized, if that makes any sense ... Shea Weber at 24:20 TOI, tops on the team, followed by Nick Suzuki at 19:53 ... according to NHL.com, Jordan Weal won 67% of his faceoffs ... I can't remember the last time the team gave up two shorthanded goals in one game ... the defence corps will have to be better ... Carey Price will have to be better ... Brendan Gallagher will have to be better ... the team will have to be better ... the Leafs were definitely better ... Cheers.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 29, 2020 19:21:18 GMT -5
Julien is a fun one to try to figure out. The most perplexing of his mysteries is why does he use Weal so much on the powerplay? I've tried my best to rationalize that choice, and all I can muster up is this underwhelming set of arguments: He's ever so slightly better in the faceoff dot than Domi and Suzuki. Also he's a right shot, and Julien seems to overly prioritize handedness. During the regular season, Weal was 10th on the team in PP TOI, yet his On-Ice PP Goals For per 60 min was one rank higher at 9th (5.4 PP GF/60min). It suggests that Julien sees Weal as the 10th best PP option but one could make the argument that he executes as the 9th best PP option. His PP GF/60 was actually twice that of Kotkaniemi's rating of 2.7 GF/60. Regardless, I can "understand" Julien making his decisions based on these stats, but I don't agree with it because at a certain point he needs to look beyond past performance as a way of predicting future results. That's why statistics and probability are two different types of analysis. The PP needs to be fixed and KK's offensive tools have the potential to do just that. Using Weal guarantees that nothing will change. Now for Weal's 5v5 usage, I'll give the coaching staff a pass because, if anything, I think they've overachieved a little bit with this roster. Because let's face it, the Habs don't scare anyone. When the other team's weapons are better than ours, there's a lot of defensive minutes that will need to be played by the Habs 5v5. Julien typically has no choice but to try to neutralize the other team's top 2 or 3 lines and hopefully win the depth game. And I kinda get it... Pick any playoff team and try to match our lines against there's without leaving any of our lines exposed. It's not exactly easy. And for all the complaining about Weal, he only averaged 11:38 per game this season. He's really more of a sacrifice of 0 to 20 minutes per game, ie a warm body that could play relatively neutral 5v5 minutes against any matchup. He might barely play one game, and then get 16 minutes the next. So as a depth player he's really quite versatile. Ain't too shabby shootout record too. But really, this isn't about Weal. This is about everyone wanting to see KK on the ice more often. So would we rather have 16+ minutes of KK playing against the opponent's top 6? Or 12 minutes of KK in a more favourable matchup? Keep in mind that against teams like Toronto, Tampa, Pittsburgh, etc 16+ minutes means that KK would be facing off against elite level centermen for a good chunk of his ice time. I love KK, but the odds of him winning a matchup against Malkin is slim. So anytime we come away saying KK was our best player but only played 12 minutes, it *might* just be that the coaching staff got his matchup right. Lots of good points above, but I think Julien and the organization are completely missing the forest for the trees. The probability of the Habs accomplishing anything notweworthy the rest of this season and all of next is very miniscule. The talent isn't there and the upcoming talent isn't ready yet. So why the hell aren't we coaching the team for development purposes first and winning second? You don't have to get up on a tower and proclaim that to the world, you just allocate ice time appropriately. And of course you have to plan for the vets you need (not want) to keep and those you have to exchange for future benefits. The flaw is in the basic vision. Bergevin says he's planning for the future, but the message on the ice is completely different. The funny thing is that if you allocate ice time appropriately, you quite likely will win more games. I don't care what the stats say, Kotkaniemi is a better offensive driver than Jordan Weal. His line certainly looked more dangerous last night, as well as actually putting up more points. If the Habs redirected their focus to 2021-22, you'd see Suzuki and KK centering the top two lines, Danault on the 3rd and Evans or Poehling on the 4th. You'd see Domi either on LW, or traded for a left defenseman. I'd personally go further than that, but those are simple ice time moves that shout quite loudly that the youth movement is on. Having said all that, if Bergevin has some goal that must be achieved in order to keep his job, then a lot of these on ice decisions make more sense....for the short term naturally. He;s wrong, of course. You have to take risks to succeed and his obsession with guarantees only guarantees the Habs remain a loser.
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Post by folatre on Jul 29, 2020 21:33:39 GMT -5
For sure, it is not fair to pin the power play woes on any one player and that is not what I meant to do to Weal. As frozone showed, by Canadiens' standards Weal is basically an average power play performer (over his 97 minutes on the power play Montreal scored like 8 or 9 times and he picked up 5 points). The problem, of course, is Montreal's power play norms/standards are abysmal. So basically Weal is an average power play contributor on a team that is alarmingly poor at taking advantage of the man advantage, which is another way of saying that on a team with even a decent power play a guy like Weal would never even sniff a regular power play shift. As seventeen points out, at the end of the day skill is skill and you need to pay attention to letting young talented guys learn by doing.
Handedness? Maybe but looking at it overall Montreal has plenty of righties getting major power play time (Weber, Gallagher, Petry, Suzuki, and Armia) so Weal does not need to be ahead of Kotkaniemi for that reason.
Last, stats on the same team can be full of oddities. Kovalchuk, who is one of the very best power play weapons in the league over the last twenty years, based on his 22 games in Montreal graded out to a shockingly dismal 1.1 goals on ice for per 60 power play minutes.
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Post by frozone on Jul 29, 2020 22:19:26 GMT -5
For sure, it is not fair to pin the power play woes on any one player and that is not what I meant to do to Weal. As frozone showed, by Canadiens' standards Weal is basically an average power play performer (over his 97 minutes on the power play Montreal scored like 8 or 9 times and he picked up 5 points). The problem, of course, is Montreal's power play norms/standards are abysmal. So basically Weal is an average power play contributor on a team that is alarmingly poor at taking advantage of the man advantage, which is another way of saying that on a team with even a decent power play a guy like Weal would never even sniff a regular power play shift. As seventeen points out, at the end of the day skill is skill and you need to pay attention to letting young talented guys learn by doing. Handedness? Maybe but looking at it overall Montreal has plenty of righties getting major power play time (Weber, Gallagher, Petry, Suzuki, and Armia) so Weal does not need to be ahead of Kotkaniemi for that reason. Last, stats on the same team can be full of oddities. Kovalchuk, who is one of the very best power play weapons in the league over the last twenty years, based on his 22 games in Montreal graded out to a shockingly dismal 1.1 goals on ice for per 60 power play minutes. Trust me, it’s not an easy exercise to play devil’s advocate wrt Weal’s usage on the PP. I simply enjoy trying to make sense of the things that don’t make sense. I think that statistics are horribly misused throughout the NHL, and Weal is a good example of what happens when a coaching staff believes that there is a direct link between past performance and future results. As for the handedness, I assume Julien would be more concerned about having a rightie that could take the the face offs. At least that’s what I think CJ would be stuck on... ie, win the possession game, don’t worry about the goals.
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Post by folatre on Jul 29, 2020 22:49:03 GMT -5
With Julien at the helm, you raise a good point about faceoffs and Weal.
Weal has not embarrassed himself relative to his mates on how he operates on the man advantage. But it seems like Julien is getting caught up thinking about how to maintain a bad baseline standard of effectiveness instead of figuring out how to potentially improve things.
And while other guys (Domi and Drouin, among others) do not really have a significantly better effectiveness than Weal on the power play, what strikes me as different with the Habs is the way a guy who is fourth liner becomes a mainstay on the power play. On virtually every club in the league, fourth liners do not get the benefit of any doubt, they are the guys that settle for meager scraps.
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