Draft 2022

[NWTHabsFan]

With the announcement today of the rosters of the CHL top prospects game, I thought it was time to get a draft thread going. I will post later today my overall thoughts on the draft and its top players. I will also then add more detailed posts on each league/country like I did last year.

Given the draft will be live in Montreal this year (fingers crossed), and with Horton (Hughes/Gorton) already accumulating lots of picks to keep it interesting for Habs, it should be a subject that generates lots of chatter amongst our community.

[NWTHabsFan]

So, how does this overall draft look and feel right now? I sure see a pretty common refrain amongst posters on various sites that this is a weak draft. It is often a tag that starts with some momentum and gets repeated without enough context. I will explain why I actually think this is a good and deep draft, but not without its flaws. Firstly, drafts tend to get labelled based on the strength or weakness of their top pick or range of top picks. That is low hanging fruit, as most people can read about or see the top guys fairly easily. Not that many can talk about seeing guys projected in the bottom half of the first, the second round, or even later in the draft. There is also scouting bias, as some guys and leagues are way easier to see, depending on where you live and have access to junior hockey.

A year and a half ago, with their D-2 underage years mainly untouched by COVID, this was a strong and deep draft. Wright and Lambert were the big stars. Wright was tearing things up as a 15/16 year old. Exception status, and living up to the hype. Lambert and likely Miroshnichenko were some promising Euros ready to join what looked like a good class already. Then came COVID and development time, critical for kids that age, was all over the map. The D-1 year was a total loss for many, including pretty well the entire OHL. How can you compare kids now, with so little to work on and with such limited actual physical access to see live games, when and if they were even allowed to occur? And don’t tell me that a young kid does not play better in front of a crazy crowd versus empty stands. Or maybe they feel the pressure, and do poorly. You will never know with such a lost season for many.

The draft class has begun to return to some form of new normal this year, but not without its casualties. Wright and a number of the previous top stars no longer look as promising. Who are the guys to replace them at the top of the draft? How much hockey have all these kids played over the past couple of years in order to properly assess against each other? The reality is things are sorting themselves out as all drafts do. There are no longer any franchise or generational talents seen at the top of the draft. Wright is still #1 ( and he deserves to be, more on that later), but there is still lots to like about this draft. You just have to look past the lacking of superstar power that folks like to see with the top picks.

I think the draft is deep. There is a very good top tier of 12 or so. A lot tighter bunched than many drafts with a clear elite top tier or player. There is more depth later in the first round than say in last year’s draft. The second round should have very good depth and there will be some real nice players beyond those rounds as some leagues and countries are showing some fine depth this year. Slovakia is seeing a resurgence of top end junior players, and it is showing in draft lists. The USA NTDP has 19 players rated by central scouting. That is bonkers. It is a very deep and talented team. Way better than last year and quite close to the Jack Hughes team. The OHL kids are finally getting some playing time and exposure. And I really like this draft for mobile puck moving defenders. The top two rounds are full of a whole bunch of good ones.

As for the top tier, there is a bunch of everything that should give a number of teams a very good prospect. Canadian forwards Wright, Savoie, and Geekie all bring something different to the table. Finland has two dynamic forwards in Kemell and Lambert. The aforementioned Slovakians boast Olympians Slafkovsky, the big power forward, and Nemec, the steady RD. Russia has its enigmatic Miroshnichenko and slick but underused Yurov. Chechia has exciting, but injured stud RHD David Jiríček. And the Americans bring exciting centres Cooley and Nazar, who are part of that very good NTDP U18 team. Look out for them in April in Germany at the U18s.

I will finish with just a few of my thoughts on Wright. I really like him. His hockey IQ is top notch. He has great vision and makes plays very quickly. The kind of kid that looks better with really good IQ linemates. He has a good shot and he is great on face offs. He is not overly physical and the big knock is he is slow, and does not move his feet enough. He is definitely not the dynamic play driver that many hope to see with a consensus #1 overall pick. But he is going to be a very good pick, even if not generational. I see a lot of Suzuki in him in terms of vision and smarts, with better face off skills. He was superb last April at the U18s after not playing all year and then missing some games with a foot injury that lingered into this early season. He is playing better right now, and does a lot of things well. I would have zero issues if the Habs get Wright as a consolation prize for this disaster of a season. Of course I would prefer Bedard or Michkov, but that is a debate for a year from now and I am just fine if Wright joins the fold in July.

[folatre]

Thanks for the good info and insights well in advance of the draft, NW. I agree there are no generational talents in the draft and that Wright merits being top of the board. And I generally concur with the points you are making about the draft having good depth through the top 25 or 35 picks as well as the fact that Covid obstacles to development probably still have some kids flying under the radar.

Do you think there are two tiers among the top 10-12 kids?

This will be a crucial draft for Montreal. I know that Gorton and Hughes are hockey junkies, but obviously they will need quality input from the organization's amateur scouts. Hopefully those individuals are good enough at their craft to provide the kind of quality input.

[NWTHabsFan]

folatre, there are likely sub tiers within my imaginary top tier, but I see lots of movement amongst the guys after Wright to be honest. And would I be shocked if a team liked a guy like Lekkerimaki, Gauthier, McGroarty or Mintyukov more than one or two guys in my top twelve list? No way. There are going to be lots of variations amongst a bunch of rankings again this year. As with any draft, it only takes one team to like a guy more than others, and you get a pick that mixes the order up a bit.

I see the depth of promising players going well through the second round. There will be good third round picks available too as some guys that fall there or are ranked there look pretty promising right now. And like every draft, a few mid to late round steals will be found by teams.

The other thing is whether there is a growing trend of picking overagers this year that were not picked last draft due to a missed season or just not enough viewings.

[NWTHabsFan]

Very interesting. It will be a busy hockey month in YEG with both the Hlinka (next year’s draft class) and the renewed WJC. I wonder what countries will do with kids that would be eligible for both tourneys (Bedard and Dvorsky - Michkov is a December 2004 birthday so would not be eligible for the Hlinka).

The other weird thing is with three picks in this draft in the top 33 or so (and maybe more by draft day), the Habs could end up with more than the three prospects playing in this tournament that they had in December. Interesting.

I predict I might be staying close to home this August!

[Willie Dog]

Feb 17, 2022 11:03:50 GMT -5 NWTHabsFan said:

Very interesting. It will be a busy hockey month in YEG with both the Hlinka (next year’s draft class) and the renewed WJC. I wonder what countries will do with kids that would be eligible for both tourneys (Bedard and Dvorsky - Michkov is a December 2004 birthday so would not be eligible for the Hlinka).

The other weird thing is with three picks in this draft in the top 33 or so (and maybe more by draft day), the Habs could end up with more than the three prospects playing in this tournament that they had in December. Interesting.

I predict I might be staying close to home this August!

That would be some fun hockey to watch

[NWTHabsFan]

Feb 17, 2022 12:17:06 GMT -5 Willie Dog said:

Feb 17, 2022 11:03:50 GMT -5 NWTHabsFan said:

Very interesting. It will be a busy hockey month in YEG with both the Hlinka (next year’s draft class) and the renewed WJC. I wonder what countries will do with kids that would be eligible for both tourneys (Bedard and Dvorsky - Michkov is a December 2004 birthday so would not be eligible for the Hlinka).

The other weird thing is with three picks in this draft in the top 33 or so (and maybe more by draft day), the Habs could end up with more than the three prospects playing in this tournament that they had in December. Interesting.

I predict I might be staying close to home this August!

That would be some fun hockey to watch

I recommend a HabsRus summer summit in Edmonton lol.

[NWTHabsFan]

Yurov is finally getting ice time and look at what he can do! Over half season of getting only a few shifts per game in the KHL was not helping. Glad he is in the MHL. Going to have to watch a game or two of his now. I thought he really carried the line with Miroshnichenko at the Hlinka last summer. He was the play driver. I saw him live once in December, and Russia used him as the 13th forward that game. Grrr. I should not complain though as that game featured Bedard, Michkov, Wright, Power, and some big dude named Guhle to name a few. It was a treat to see so much talent on the ice.

[Willie Dog]

Feb 17, 2022 12:25:46 GMT -5 NWTHabsFan said:

Feb 17, 2022 12:17:06 GMT -5 Willie Dog said:

That would be some fun hockey to watch

I recommend a HabsRus summer summit in Edmonton lol.

That would be cool

[NWTHabsFan]

I expect some roster changes as a result.

[NWTHabsFan]

Slafkovsky with two more goals as Slovakia stun Sweden 4-0 to take Olympic bronze. That is 7 goals in 7 games for the big 17 year old…in the Olympics, to lead all goal scorers.

Safe to say he has moved up on most, if not all, draft lists.

[folatre]

Slafkovsky was very impressive in the Olympics. Probably the centres (Wright and Cooley) are coming off the board 1-2, but the big Slovak could go as high as #3 and he seems a lock to go in the top five.

[PTH]

Feb 19, 2022 17:12:05 GMT -5 folatre said:

Slafkovsky was very impressive in the Olympics. Probably the centres (Wright and Cooley) are coming off the board 1-2, but the big Slovak could go as high as #3 and he seems a lock to go in the top five.

I'm thinking it's 75% chance that we're getting one of those 3...

[Willie Dog]

Slaffy is 6'4" and 218, what a beast on left wing... does he have an attitude or is he a patty cakes kind of player?

[seventeen]

Hmmmm. Almost sounds like a Jagr who went 5th overall in 1990 after Owen Nolan, Petr Nedved, Keith Primeau and Mike Ricci. Wonder if those teams would like to do a make-over?

[NWTHabsFan]

First of all, good luck to the kid for a full and speedy recovery. Two things jump out from this news for me. First, this could partially explain his drop off in play this season and why he has been dropping on draft lists. Lastly, he becomes even more of an interesting swing for the fences pick now. He will fall due to his declining play, the whole Russian factor which will be alive and well at the draft, and the projection of how well he plays after recovery.

Teams with loads of higher picks can take a very calculated gamble with him once they do their due diligence. I really liked some parts of his game like his shot, size and skill, but he is not a play driver as much as he should and he is very inconsistent in his engagement and effort levels. The flaws can be worked on if he wants to and a team provides him good support and guidance.

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

Mar 3, 2022 11:01:04 GMT -5 NWTHabsFan said:

First of all, good luck to the kid for a full and speedy recovery. Two things jump out from this news for me. First, this could partially explain his drop off in play this season and why he has been dropping on draft lists. Lastly, he becomes even more of an interesting swing for the fences pick now. He will fall due to his declining play, the whole Russian factor which will be alive and well at the draft, and the projection of how well he plays after recovery.

Teams with loads of higher picks can take a very calculated gamble with him once they do their due diligence. I really liked some parts of his game like his shot, size and skill, but he is not a play driver as much as he should and he is very inconsistent in his engagement and effort levels. The flaws can be worked on if he wants to and a team provides him good support and guidance.

NWT: What do you think about Jagger Firkus. He was passed over twice but has shown improvement and scoring ability. He is older than his opposition but at 21, hardly washed up. Skating and skills???

[NWTHabsFan]

Mar 6, 2022 19:26:58 GMT -5 Habs_fan_in_LA said:

NWT: What do you think about Jagger Firkus. He was passed over twice but has shown improvement and scoring ability. He is older than his opposition but at 21, hardly washed up. Skating and skills???

Firkus is an April 2004 born so he is first year eligible this year. He is small and very slight, but fast and has one of the best shots in the draft. I like him. Early second rounder for me but rising as Moose Jaw has some great young talent.

[NWTHabsFan]

With the CHL Top Prospects game back on and happening this Wednesday, I thought I would start off my draft profile write ups on the three CHL leagues before the game so that folks can freshen up with some of the potential top prospects to watch in the upcoming draft in July in Montreal.

I will start close to home for the Habs with the QMJHL. After what has been two very strong drafts for the Q in 2020 and 2021, this draft definitely sees the quality and top end talent drop off from the league compared to the two other CHL member leagues. The Habs were quite active in the 2021 draft picking four times from the Q, and we all know the pressure is always there for the Habs to pay strong attention to players “in their own backyard”.

The projected top pick from the Q is Tristan Luneau, a smooth skating defender from Gatineau. The Olympiques actually have four central scouting rated players, so they have an exciting young crop. Luneau is sort of a jack of all trades, but does not stand out in any one area as much as some of the other defenders that are likely to be taken in the first round. It is actually a pretty decent draft for defenders, especially for offensive puck movers. A solid two way defender. The highest rated forward is Nathan Gaucher, the big centre from Quebec. He probably is the only other Q player that likely hears his name on the first night.

The next tier of players are all defenders. Maveric Lamoureux is a giant (6’7”) defender from Drummondville for a team that is still obsessed with drafting by size. A much more mobile and more talented big defender is Noah Warren, who at 6’5” is imposing and strong physically but he has decent mobility. He also plays with Luneau at Gatineau. The next pair of defenders who could hear their names as the rounds evolve in day two are Jake Furlong from Halifax and Angus Booth from Shawinigan. One exciting, but small forward to keep an eye on is 5’8” and 165 pound Jordan Dumais. He will drop because of his size, but he is an exciting player at the junior level.

The following QMJHL players will participate in the Top Prospects Game: Maxim Barbashev from Moncton, Lamoureux, Ivan Zhigalov the Belarusian goalie with Sherbrooke, Gaucher, Antonin Verreault from Gatineau, Luneau, and Warren. Gatineau will have three players in the game.

[folatre]

Good summary of the Q.

It will be interesting to see the overall cluster of kids available when the Habs use the Calgary pick. I really like Mateychuk but his stock seems to be rising to such an extent there is probably no way he will be there. Luneau and Gaucher certainly look like viable options. It may even be cagey business to take the talented Russian Mironishenko since the kid likely falls for various reasons.

[Tankdriver]

Mar 21, 2022 10:52:07 GMT -5 folatre said:

Good summary of the Q.

It will be interesting to see the overall cluster of kids available when the Habs use the Calgary pick. I really like Mateychuk but his stock seems to be rising to such an extent there is probably no way he will be there. Luneau and Gaucher certainly look like viable options. It may even be cagey business to take the talented Russian Mironishenko since the kid likely falls for various reasons.

I am know some people aren't bullish on Shane Wright but say we have the 3rd Overall pick I wouldn't be opposed to trading it with the Calgary pick for #1.

[NWTHabsFan]

Mar 21, 2022 10:52:07 GMT -5 folatre said:

Good summary of the Q.

It will be interesting to see the overall cluster of kids available when the Habs use the Calgary pick. I really like Mateychuk but his stock seems to be rising to such an extent there is probably no way he will be there. Luneau and Gaucher certainly look like viable options. It may even be cagey business to take the talented Russian Mironishenko since the kid likely falls for various reasons.

I have a long list for that Calgary pick. I agree that Mateychuk is likely playing his way above that pick. He is a stud.

[NWTHabsFan]

Next up, the WHL in my backyard. It is a pretty decent year for the Dub again this year with a nice mix of top end forwards, mobile defenders and the top ranked North American goalie. The top tier of players from the WHL actually hail from the same team, the Winnipeg Ice (formerly the Kootenay Ice). Centres Matthew Savoie and Connor Geekie are on the same team, but very different in profiles. Savoie is small, fast and shifty with a great shot and plays the game with pace. During the COVID year last year, he actually played the season down in the USHL so he ended up playing more than most of his WHL peers. I managed to catch a number of his games there as a 16 year old and the talent and shot was shining through already. Geekie, by contrast, is a big body but with very smooth mitts for a big kid. The knock on him, and it is a legit concern, is his skating both in terms of pace and effectiveness.

There are a host of good defenders who all have a bit of a similar profile in that they are all good skaters and puck movers. In my opinion, the best by a nice margin is Moose Jaw’s Denton Mateychuk who may not be overly tall but is strong (good old farm boy here). He is a wizard with the puck and is very mobile and skilled. Other talented two way guys with strong puck skills from the back end include Seattle’s Kevin Korchinski, Swift Current’s tall but raw Owen Pickering, and Kamloops’ Mats Lindgren.

One of Mateychuk’s teammates in Moose Jaw who is really impressing scouts is undersized forward Jagger Firkus. In addition to having one of the best names of the draft, he also has one of the best shots of the draft. The kid can score. Moose Jaw also has very impressive 2023 draft eligible Brayden Yager who is already showing some great stuff as one of the top picks next year, but that is a story for a year from now!

The Dub also is home to the top ranked NA goalie for the draft, Prince George’s Tyler Brennan.

In total, 15 WHL kids will strut their stuff on Wednesday at the Top Prospects Game: Josh Filmon (Swift Current), Jordan Gustafson (Seattle), Fraser Minten (Kamloops), Savoie, Matthew Seminoff (Kamloops), Korchinski, Reid Dyck goalie from Swift Current, Firkus, Geekie, Reid Schaefer (Seattle), Lindgren, Mateychuk, Pickering, Brennan, and goalie Mason Beaupit from Spokane.

[NWTHabsFan]

And the last league that will have participants at the CHL Top Prospect game tomorrow night. After a year off due to COVID, there was a whole lot of unknown about the OHL draft kids due to a missed year for most prospects that were not able to go overseas or find another league to at least get some games in last season. It is becoming clear by now that this is a pretty hearty draft group out of the OHL, and the kids are really starting to show the depth and talent in the league. Lots of good forwards and it is very deep from the OHL teams this year Let’s do a bit of a deeper dive into some of the guys who likely will hear their names in the first few rounds.

Of course any talk about the OHL starts with potential number one overall pick Shane Wright. He is not the generational talent that so many hope for in a first overall, but there is tons to like about him. He is so smart, has great vision, is great on faceoffs, and just thinks the game fast and has great vision and an underused shot. He gives me lots of Suzuki Plus vibes with a better face off skill set. I would take that any day. So what if he is not generational, he is still super talented and there will be some other nice options at the top of this draft too. Forget the “not deep” tag, teams will find good NHLers well into this draft class.

I will talk about two notable defenders before I jump into the large group of exciting forwards to watch. The Russian import defender Pavel Mintyukov is the league’s best draft eligible defender for Saginaw. A great mobile, two way, skilled defender that teams will covet somewhere in the range of 10+. He should be the first North American based defender to go after Euro studs Jiríček and Nemec are gone earlier. The other mobile two way guy is North Bay’s Ty Nelson, who plays in front of the Habs’ Joe Vrbetic.

Up front, there are some fun guys to watch who have some offensive skills for sure. Luca Del Bel Belluz from Mississauga has one of the best draft names, and may be seen as just an average skater right now, but the kid is dynamic and can score. He has moved up to my list for the Calgary first round pick for sure, as he has been flying up lists all year. Other notable forwards include Saginaw’s Matyas Sapovalic, Mississauga’s Owen Beck, Guelph’s Matthew Poitras (he would look good with an early second!), Daniel Zhilkin from Guelph and the fun buzz bomb from Sudbury, David Goyette.

There will be a CHL high 18 players from the O in the Top Prospects Game: Del Bel Belluz, Goyette, Barrie’s Hunter Haight, Poitras, Wright, Zhilkin, Guelph Michael Buchinger, Hamilton’s Jorian Donovan, London’s Isaiah George, Nelson, Beck, London’s Ruslan Gazizov, Guelph’s Jake Karabela, Kingston’s Paul Ludwinski, SSM’s Bryce McConnell-Barker, Ottawa’s Austrian import Vinzenz Rohrer, Sapovaliv, and Mintyukov.

[seventeen]

Thanks NWT. You are a wizard! Gandalfish, not Sarumanish.

[NWTHabsFan]

Mar 22, 2022 17:16:43 GMT -5 seventeen said:

Thanks NWT. You are a wizard! Gandalfish, not Sarumanish.

Good clarification 😆

[NWTHabsFan]

CHL Top Prospects Game is on tonight. Unfortunately it is only on TSN5 as the main channel has other stuff already scheduled. You can watch it anywhere though on the TSN app streaming or on TSN.ca. Game time is 8:00pm ET.

With all those picks this draft, there is a pretty good chance there is at least one future Hab in this game. Anyway, it is always a fun watch to see kids from across the three leagues going up against each other in the same game.

Nice to see this regular annual fixture back after being cancelled last year.

[folatre]

I am watching it on the NHL Network. Wright has a lot jump tonight in the first period.

[NWTHabsFan]

Vintage Firkus. He is even more fun live. Small, but what a shot (that was not even his best effort).

[folatre]

For sure, Firkus' handle and quick feet (amazing edgework) are crazy. And his shot is excellent too.