World Championships (Habs, ex-Habs, draft studs)

[Habit]

May 16, 2022 17:25:42 GMT -5 seventeen said:

May 16, 2022 13:08:00 GMT -5 Andrew said:

Bold prediction, but I think JA has a 40+ goal season in him. Not sure when, but I think he'll have a late career Kreider-type year once our top 2 centers mature a little (presumably Suzuki and Wright).

Colour me zany but I'm having second thoughts about Wright. Yeah, I know all about the lost season, etc. I've read the stories about his dominance at the U18's and prior to that and how well he played as an under-ager at the WJC. The problem is that all those examples took place 2 years ago. What's happened recently? Well, he put up a decent draft year with 94 points in 63 games and was +23 on a fairly average team. That seems ok but here are the facts that bother me:

He scored more goals in fewer games two seasons earlier as a 16 year old on a worse team. He got a lot more assists this past season, but that's likely a result of his teammates being better finishers, which brings me to....

He wasn't the leading scorer on his team. Sure, he was 2 years younger that that guy, Lucas Edmonds, who played 5 more games, but that guy had 19 more points. The next guy, 3rd on the team behind Wright, had only 7 less points, with 2 fewer games. He was a 20 year old and Edmonds was 20 as well, so both 2 years older, and probably on the same line together. But you want your guy to dominate. He didn't.

Thirdly, another barometer I like to use is the playoff points production. Is it higher than the regular season? Has he taken a jump, when games mattered more? Or at least, produced at the same level. With Wright, his regular season goals per game was .51 and his ppg was 1.49. In the playoffs those same numbers were .27 and 1.27.

I would love to know what the Habs scouting group thinks of him. There are a lot of good reasons to pick him, but a few warning signs. I'm getting a Filip Zadina feeling.

From what I have been reading, the Kingston Coach used Wright in a lot of D Zone starts this year because of his great 200 foot game. This insulated his other forwards giving them more O Zone starts.

[frozone]

May 18, 2022 6:34:24 GMT -5 Habit said:

May 16, 2022 17:25:42 GMT -5 seventeen said:

Colour me zany but I'm having second thoughts about Wright. Yeah, I know all about the lost season, etc. I've read the stories about his dominance at the U18's and prior to that and how well he played as an under-ager at the WJC. The problem is that all those examples took place 2 years ago. What's happened recently? Well, he put up a decent draft year with 94 points in 63 games and was +23 on a fairly average team. That seems ok but here are the facts that bother me:

He scored more goals in fewer games two seasons earlier as a 16 year old on a worse team. He got a lot more assists this past season, but that's likely a result of his teammates being better finishers, which brings me to....

He wasn't the leading scorer on his team. Sure, he was 2 years younger that that guy, Lucas Edmonds, who played 5 more games, but that guy had 19 more points. The next guy, 3rd on the team behind Wright, had only 7 less points, with 2 fewer games. He was a 20 year old and Edmonds was 20 as well, so both 2 years older, and probably on the same line together. But you want your guy to dominate. He didn't.

Thirdly, another barometer I like to use is the playoff points production. Is it higher than the regular season? Has he taken a jump, when games mattered more? Or at least, produced at the same level. With Wright, his regular season goals per game was .51 and his ppg was 1.49. In the playoffs those same numbers were .27 and 1.27.

I would love to know what the Habs scouting group thinks of him. There are a lot of good reasons to pick him, but a few warning signs. I'm getting a Filip Zadina feeling.

From what I have been reading, the Kingston Coach used Wright in a lot of D Zone starts this year because of his great 200 foot game. This insulated his other forwards giving them more O Zone starts.

I remember reading somewhere that the coaching decisions in Kingston were a little odd at times. If that's indeed the case, then it could have a big impact on Wright's production.

Seventeen, your concerns are valid. I also have some doubts. But for now, I think if you dig a little deeper into Wright's situation like you did with Suzuki, the added context might give you more faith in Wright. Or it may just give you more doubt... who knows!

What I'm clinging to is the progression in shot volume over his 2 seasons in the OHL. In his rookie season, he put up 198 shots in 58 games and that increased to 260 in 63 games this past season. That's a good increase, and that shot volume compares well with junior scorers like Debrincat, Svechnikov and Suzuki in their draft years. Yes, his shooting percentage did take a big dip going from 19.7% down to 12.3%, but imo that is not concerning. A low shooting percentage is often just a good indicator that it's time to buy low. Not to mention a 19+% shooting percentage isn't out of the ordinary for a good shooter in the OHL. Debrincat put up seasons of 19% and 21%. Marco Rossi 17.6% and 20.2%. Jack Quinn 21.7%. Jordan Kyrou 23.5%. Svechnikov 23%. If Wright had shot just 17% his stat line would suddenly pop a heck of a lot more.

Another thing that seems to hurt Wright's stock is the fact that his game matured so early in his career. It gives this unsettling feeling that perhaps we're drafting an already finished product. It's seemingly harder to project a player who is rounding out his game already. But this doesn't mean that he won't get faster, stronger, more skilled, etc. If anything, all it does is reduce the risk that his game will translate to the NHL.

I will admit though that it's not fun having to dig into the details to justify a 1st overall pick. We all wish that the reasons for his selection would be much more obvious, but any way you slice it, 94 points in 63 games is darn good in any player's draft year, and it's especially good when you consider his missed season, his slow start to this year, and his low shooting percentage.

[seventeen]

Good points, frozone. My opinion was based on the information available to me. I was not aware of things like OZ and DZ starts, or the coaching situation. On that point, simply look at St. Louis and Ducharme.

I know almost nothing about Luca Caputi, the Frontenacs coach but a quick delve into hockeydb.com produces the following: His playing career is not distinguished. His coaching career involves being an assistant on a bad Guelph Storm team for 2 years and an average Storm team for 1 year, under George Burnett, the only coach he worked under with any kind of pedigree. He had one good role model over 5 years of assistant or associate coaching. In other words, he is not a guy I'd want developing my players. That in itself may be a key issue, which makes Wright's production more impressive.

Another factor is a puck moving defenseman to get transition plays going and I'm not sure Kingston had one of those guys. Their highest point producing defencemen were older players with 37 and 38 points respectively. McDavid had much better numbers his draft year, but he also had Dylan Strome and Alex Debrincat on the roster. And no one is comparing Wright to McDavid. It may very well be that Wright simply had too many obstacles in his path to produce big numbers.

[NWTHabsFan]

I have lots to add to this discussion in Wright’s usage and the coaching philosophy at Kingston, but I will just chat World Championships in this thread including how draft eligible kids that are participating are doing. 😉

Slafkovsky scored his first of the Worlds (he is getting checked closer than at the Olympics as the teams are better here) and then turned the puck over for a goal shortly after. SUI won 5-3 against SLO and lead the group for now (CAN has yet to play its fourth game).

Watching both Nemec and Jiríček, I think Nemec has a better skating and more well rounded game. I expect he will be the top defender taken in July.

[folatre]

Slovakia has some nice players, for sure. But at this point in time they play a naive brand of hockey with mental lapses in all three zones.

If Montreal was picking 2nd or 3rd overall, I would be churning through debates about what is Slafkovsky's risk (his potential ceiling looks exceptional) and should Nemec come off the board before Jiricek, etc.

Andrew, I agree that Anderson will have a couple big seasons lighting the lamp. He can rip the puck and also poke around in those tough areas. I doubt he ever hits 40+ because, unlike a guy like Kreider who scored half his goals this seasons on the power play, I just do not see Anderson evolving into a full-fledged power play specialist.

[NWTHabsFan]

Farrell with 2 PP assists today in a 3-0 USA win over GB.

Here is the first assist. #26

And his second assist. A very nice primary assist with some good play by Farrell below the goal line. He was used sparingly early on and did not get a ton of ice time, but his coach does trust him in the PP and played him a lot today. A pretty cool experience for him getting Olympics and Worlds experience before signing his first pro contract (which will happen at some point for sure).

[NWTHabsFan]

Yesterday, in what was likely the best game of the tourney, SWE edged their lifetime rivals FIN 3-2 in a shootout. Armia had the secondary assist in this goal, but does not show up in the highlight. Just believe that Armia was there (story of his life with the Habs this past season 😝).

[NWTHabsFan]

A nice jump in ice time for Farrell today and he did not disappoint with his two helpers and good play overall.

[Cranky]

When you have to dig to find the gold in your 1st round pick, you got problems.

Hope they are busy selling the Wonders of Wrigjt to thehighest bidder.

Devils are overflowing with centers, i would trade down if they are game. Or Sabres with defenseman.

A pretty birdy at hand....

[NWTHabsFan]

Anderson #77 gets it started with a nice cross seam pass on the PP. CAN currently up 4-2 against KAZ after 40.

[seventeen]

Listened to. A good podcast (Basu) yesterday with guest Scott Wheeler from the Athletic. He still has Wright at the top of his list. A key point i took out of the discussion is that Wright is a very efficient player. He’s not flashy and he does a lot of stuff spacing wise that don’t show up on stat sheets.

I was reminded of Bergeron. How often has he gone through 3 or 4 guys and scored a flashy goal? I can’t remember any. Yet he’s considered one of the top centres in the NHL. He’s efficient. He puts defenders & attackers in awkward positions. He’s so good at the little things that are not noticeable. Lifting or holding down a stick, deflecting passes. If Wright is another Bergeron, things could be worse. The feeling on the podcast was that Wright isn’t as good defensively as Bergeron but could be a better scorer.

[NWTHabsFan]

May 19, 2022 15:21:45 GMT -5 seventeen said:

Listened to. A good podcast (Basu) yesterday with guest Scott Wheeler from the Athletic. He still has Wright at the top of his list. A key point i took out of the discussion is that Wright is a very efficient player. He’s not flashy and he does a lot of stuff spacing wise that don’t show up on stat sheets.

I was reminded of Bergeron. How often has he gone through 3 or 4 guys and scored a flashy goal? I can’t remember any. Yet he’s considered one of the top centres in the NHL. He’s efficient. He puts defenders & attackers in awkward positions. He’s so good at the little things that are not noticeable. Lifting or holding down a stick, deflecting passes. If Wright is another Bergeron, things could be worse. The feeling on the podcast was that Wright isn’t as good defensively as Bergeron but could be a better scorer.

I am sorry sir. Is this a draft thread? 😂 😉

He does a lot of routine but important things well in a not very good environment (for his stats padding) in Kingston, but that is not what gets click baits. Oh, and some of the best hockey IQ this draft. Very transferable skills to the pro game with better players and systems and puck support. That is why he looked so good at the U18s last April playing on a broken foot.

Back to the dudes playing in Finland right now…

[NWTHabsFan]

Hey Joel, keep boosting your trade stock! 😆

[Skilly]

May 19, 2022 12:55:16 GMT -5 NWTHabsFan said:

Farrell with 2 PP assists today in a 3-0 USA win over GB.

Here is the first assist. #26

And his second assist. A very nice primary assist with some good play by Farrell below the goal line. He was used sparingly early on and did not get a ton of ice time, but his coach does trust him in the PP and played him a lot today. A pretty cool experience for him getting Olympics and Worlds experience before signing his first pro contract (which will happen at some point for sure).

I believe Kent Johnson joined a very small group of players who have scored a goal in the WJC, the Olympics and the WC in the same year. Albeit, his WJC goal is likely cancelled off the books, ...I still say it counts!

[seventeen]

Both of Farrell's assists were of the ho hum variety (glass half empty speaking). He just passed the puck as is normal and Bellows made two different good shots. Glass half full guy says, a point is a point.

[seventeen]

May 19, 2022 17:55:48 GMT -5 NWTHabsFan said:

I am sorry sir. Is this a draft thread? 😂 😉

I'm easily distracted.

[NWTHabsFan]

Slafkovsky with a good game against Kazakhstan with a goal and an assist. He was SLO player of the match too. He does tend to fare better against the weaker teams when the checking is not as tight. Not a criticism, just a fact.

He draws the penalty shot on this very nice play. And the he finishes with a lovely goal on the penalty. Nice job.

[folatre]

I see more big name NHLers jumping into the fray -- Nylander for Sweden and Pasternk for Czechia.

As is often the case in these tournaments committed to growing the game in non-traditional hockey powers, the group stage begins to get a little stale. But I am certainly looking forward to the quarters.

[NWTHabsFan]

Quite a game from Nemec. With Jiríček being a healthy scratch for Czechia for the last number of games, there is likely some separation now at the top of this year’s draft list for D.

Farrell scored the ENG to ice the USA’s 4-2 win today. They play SUI in the quarterfinals next.

[NWTHabsFan]

Hopefully some GM is a bit looped on Finnish beer in the stands and says, “Armia still has it. Let’s call Kent”. 😉

[NWTHabsFan]

After a very long group stage, it is finally quarter final day at the Worlds.

The early games (in under an hour) are:

GER-CZE
SWE-CAN (Anderson)

The late games are:

SUI-USA (Farrell)
FIN-SVK (Armia)

[Tankdriver]

If team Canada gets eliminated today, does that kind of put the dagger in Julien's career? His Olympic team and World teams haven't exactly wowed me.

[Willie Dog]

May 24, 2022 13:41:59 GMT -5 NWTHabsFan said:

Hopefully some GM is a bit looped on Finnish beer in the stands and says, “Armia still has it. Let’s call Kent”. 😉

Maybe Armia should start wearing No 10.

[Willie Dog]

May 26, 2022 8:31:19 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

If team Canada gets eliminated today, does that kind of put the dagger in Julien's career? His Olympic team and World teams haven't exactly wowed me.

Dinosaurs become extinct

[habsorbed]

May 26, 2022 9:17:45 GMT -5 Willie Dog said:

May 26, 2022 8:31:19 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

If team Canada gets eliminated today, does that kind of put the dagger in Julien's career? His Olympic team and World teams haven't exactly wowed me.

Dinosaurs become extinct

I watched one of the early games in the tourney and had forgotten CJ was the coach. When the TV showed him behind the bench I almost gagged - all these bad feelings started coming back. and sure enough this team, which on paper should be dominating the opposition, are just blah. First ever loss to Denmark, etc. I wonder if I'll ever get over MB's era with Habs?

One also has to wonder how many star players took a pass on playing because they knew they's have no fun or success and be downright bored playing for CJ. Interesting how many teams picked up players as NHL teams were eliminated but I don't believe anyone joined CJ late. Perhaps Canada has a rule?

I call it the Losers Tournament. And that for loser coaches too.

[NWTHabsFan]

May 26, 2022 8:31:19 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

If team Canada gets eliminated today, does that kind of put the dagger in Julien's career? His Olympic team and World teams haven't exactly wowed me.

I was surprised and frankly very disappointed that Hockey Canada went back to him after the Olympics. A bit of a Bergevin complex going on there.

The last week or so, the team just has not played as well as the talent of paper would suggest. Julien perhaps? Trying to get skilled guys to play “his right way”. Hard to tell. Today they are getting beaten by a great goaltending performance. And Canada with Driegder in net. Yikes.

[NWTHabsFan]

And Canada just scored two late. Tie game. Incredible. Down 3-0 after two. Tied at three very late now.

And CAN completes the improbable comeback with a PP goal by Batherson with Nylander in the box in OT. Sweet.

Three goals since 18:07 of the third. Wild. The comeback was all Julien! 😉

[Willie Dog]

May 26, 2022 10:47:43 GMT -5 NWTHabsFan said:

And Canada just scored two late. Tie game. Incredible. Down 3-0 after two. Tied at three very late now.

And CAN completes the improbable comeback with a PP goal by Batherson with Nylander in the box in OT. Sweet.

Three goals since 18:07 of the third. Wild. The comeback was all Julien! 😉

Clod is the king of all comebacks

[seventeen]

May 26, 2022 8:31:19 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

If team Canada gets eliminated today, does that kind of put the dagger in Julien's career? His Olympic team and World teams haven't exactly wowed me.

Show me the players. It's not really loaded with a lot of talent, especially on the blueline. And goal. I almost forgot goal. I'm not as hard on Julien as some of you guys. His teams usually play a decent system. But like all coaches, as they get older, they tend to get more conservative and in Julien's case, mishandle kids. They find guys they trust to 'not make a mistake' (even if the guy is a black hole on offense) and they play them more. Unfortunately, black holes don't score and eventually, the other team plunks one in and its over. In sports and life you have to take risks. That means you will fail perhaps a lot of the time. Not taking risks guarantees you will fail all the time because you never try to achieve anything. Why that lesson gets lost is the perplexing part.

But....Yay Canada!

ps. Doesn't Sweden have this habit of dominating the early rounds and then losing in the knockout stage?

[NWTHabsFan]

May 26, 2022 14:36:31 GMT -5 seventeen said:

May 26, 2022 8:31:19 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

If team Canada gets eliminated today, does that kind of put the dagger in Julien's career? His Olympic team and World teams haven't exactly wowed me.

Show me the players. It's not really loaded with a lot of talent, especially on the blueline. And goal. I almost forgot goal. I'm not as hard on Julien as some of you guys. His teams usually play a decent system. But like all coaches, as they get older, they tend to get more conservative and in Julien's case, mishandle kids. They find guys they trust to 'not make a mistake' (even if the guy is a black hole on offense) and they play them more. Unfortunately, black holes don't score and eventually, the other team plunks one in and its over. In sports and life you have to take risks. That means you will fail perhaps a lot of the time. Not taking risks guarantees you will fail all the time because you never try to achieve anything. Why that lesson gets lost is the perplexing part.

But....Yay Canada!

ps. Doesn't Sweden have this habit of dominating the early rounds and then losing in the knockout stage?

Sweden underperforms in the medal round. Stunning round robin stuff. So weird. Just glad that Nylander took a dumb tripping penalty and watched his team go home while he was in the box. A bit petty on my part? Lol, I will take it.

The forwards are fine. The defense is so-do on a given day. Chabot is not a franchise guy based on how he has played. Not close, despite the TSN love because of his name. Watch him play on the big ice “experts”. The goaltending is worrisome at best.

Julien. He is what he is.