Out of Town 2023-24

[folatre]

Drouin, meh. He has not only picked up a lot of power play cookies, but he has also played a lot of even strength hockey on MacKinnon's line. Good for him; however I do not see a big contract in his future. GMs around the league are going to be clear eyed about the context. Heck, didn't Kassian pot like 24 goals a few years back when he was along for the ride on McDavid's wing?

[jkr]

Oh, HNIC, cant stop themselves from being Leaf apologists.

They were comparing their stats on goals against and shots against for the 1st 33 games and the last 3 games. They actually seem to believe that a 3 game sample size indicates a turnaround.

Nobody on this 4 person panel had the sense to say hold on- a 33 game sample is far more indicative of what this team is. They must think their job is to make Leaf fans feel better by cherry picking stats.

EDIT: watching 2nd intermission & McLean actually says the "Leafs are rolling". They've won 2 in a row.🙁 Also helps to play the Ducks & the Sharks.

[jkr]

Just read today that Bedard is out with s broken jaw with no timeline for his return.

He was starting to pull away from the rookie pack , leading in most offensive categories.

[jkr]

FLA bests the Avs 8-4. Game was 4-4 early in the 3rd before Florida pulled away. Reinhart with 3 and now has 28.

[folatre]

I notice Calgary lost today in Chicago, 39 points in 40 games is not the first-half of a season that any GM would need to see in order to not pull the trigger on trading a few pending UFAs (Tanev, Lindholm, Hanifin) who are extremely unlikely to re-sign with the Flames.

Yesterday after a day of tournament games, a few of us dads were enjoying a couple of cold pops in the hotel bar and someone pulled out their crystal ball for 2024-25 and said to me man the Habs could be sitting pretty with the Calgary first rounder next season because the Flames are going to frickin awful. I may have said something like well you never know, it depends. In the moment I did not bother to try to look up the insanely complex details of that trade. But something about that blanket conclusion just seemed, in all likelihood, too simplistic and likely wrong.

Back home today I got on Capfriendly and reread the endless conditionality in the deal. Well, some of the conditionality centered around the scenario of Calgary not receiving Florida's 2025 first rounder has already disappeared because Florida will not be bottom ten this season and therefore the Girioux trade will conclude with the Flyers getting the Panthers' 2024 first round pick.

Of course, it is premature to conclude Florida's 2025 first rounder will not be lottery protected. After all, even though they have a stacked team, Barkov or Tkachuk could suffer an ACL tear in camp or Bobrovsky could have the wheels fall off at age 36 after a lot of hard miles. However, the likeliest scenario is Florida is in the top-third of the league during the 2024-25 season, which would mean that no matter how severe of a teardown rebuild Conroy initiates at the deadline, Montreal is probably not getting a gift for the ages with the shrewd deal that Hughes made acquiring Monahan. In fact, Calgary may see it being wiser to go ahead and plan to be god awful (sure bottom 10) in 2024-25 because then they get to use their own pick, whereas if they try to tread water and stay in the mushy middle, then Montreal could pocket a gem in the 11-13 range.

At this stage I see the key to a more favorable scenario for Montreal playing out being predicated on Calgary's owner not allowing Conroy to pursue a true tear down style course of action, much the same way ownership in Winnipeg feared the ramifications at the gate enough to essentially mandate that Cheveldayoff give Hellebuyck and Scheifele the deals they wanted.

[PTH]

Jan 7, 2024 19:53:53 GMT -5 folatre said:

...

Of course, it is premature to conclude Florida's 2025 first rounder will not be lottery protected. After all, even though they have a stacked team, Barkov or Tkachuk could suffer an ACL tear in camp or Bobrovsky could have the wheels fall off at age 36 after a lot of hard miles. However, the likeliest scenario is Florida is in the top-third of the league during the 2024-25 season, which would mean that no matter how severe of a teardown rebuild Conroy initiates at the deadline, Montreal is probably not getting a gift for the ages with the shrewd deal that Hughes made acquiring Monahan. In fact, Calgary may see it being wiser to go ahead and plan to be god awful (sure bottom 10) in 2024-25 because then they get to use their own pick, whereas if they try to tread water and stay in the mushy middle, then Montreal could pocket a gem in the 11-13 range.

At this stage I see the key to a more favorable scenario for Montreal playing out being predicated on Calgary's owner not allowing Conroy to pursue a true tear down style course of action, much the same way ownership in Winnipeg feared the ramifications at the gate enough to essentially mandate that Cheveldayoff give Hellebuyck and Scheifele the deals they wanted.

I read the tea leaves the same way. And I considered that at the 2023 draft, the Habs could've offered Calgary to modify the deal to get their pick in 2023 instead (at 16th overall), and I'd be making the same offer at the 2024 draft if the pick is similar, which would remove a lot of clouds in the Flames future. It's not defined as a possibility in the original deal, but any contract can be modified if both parties consent to it.

I have to say I'm kind of disappointed with the way the last Florida pick turned out for us (included in getting Newhook, who I'm not sold on), so maybe I'd rather not get my hopes up this time.

[Willie Dog]

Me-lander gets 8x11.5 with a full NMC... Toronto is euphoric... can't wait for him to return to his floaty ways...

[jkr]

They never seem to get it, do they?

Matthews is at 13, Tavares at 11, Marner is close to 11 & due for an extension. You can bet that he wont sign a max deal.

If Matthews and Marner really bought into the team concept like other successful teams do, they would have signed a max deal coming out of their ELC. Instead they have chosen to turn the screws on their team.

With the contracts Treliving has handed out to guys like Reaves and Huberdeau he had shown a remarkable talent for caving in.

[seventeen]

Yeah, they can be happy now, but when that defence is being caved in, the boos will rain down on Shanahan and Treliving for not fixing the defense. The solution is so simple...but completely unpalatable to the fans, and that is trading Matthews for a huge haul while he still has value. He's just one of those guys who carries losing on his back. Great individual stats, but can't win the big one. One wonders if McDavid is like that, too. At least the Oilers have a decent defense, but their goaltending is a question mark. With the Leafs it's both goal and defense. They're placing a lot of hope on Woll's shoulders.

[seventeen]

Jan 7, 2024 23:45:24 GMT -5 PTH said:

I have to say I'm kind of disappointed with the way the last Florida pick turned out for us (included in getting Newhook, who I'm not sold on), so maybe I'd rather not get my hopes up this time.

That was really bad luck. For his entire career, Alex Lyon has been a sub .900 goaltender except for 2 games with Carolina, a very structured team, in 2021/22. Then last season, he turns into Dominik Hasek for 15 games and drags a Florida team that was surely about to miss the playoffs, into that last spot and then everything went to $hit (except for the fact they beat Boston).

On the more positive side, if one looks at it from the viewpoint of what Ben Chiarot was really worth, maybe a late 1st rounder is about right. Nonetheless, I'm still ticked.

[Andrew]

If Nylander were playing in Tampa he'd have signed for no more than the $9.5 AAV that Kucherov and Point are making, and he'd be getting about the same in take-home pay as his $11.5 in Toronto. Canadian teams are at such a disadvantage when it comes to attracting and retaining top talent. Not just with the tax situation but also the weather and media scrutiny.

[seventeen]

It's a small sample but most of the teams ending up closest to the Stanley Cup lately ...Colorado, Tampa, Florida, Dallas and Vegas...all have no state tax. Hmmmmmm. That seems odd. I still call Tampa's last 2 cups tainted. They were a bazillion dollars over the CAP in the first one and only had a 56 game schedule in the 2nd, so Vasilevsky was still fresh instead of being worn out. Vegas as well last year was well over the CAP.

Some would call it good management, but it's only good management if you're lucky enough to lose a star player for only the regular season and have him come back after (cough, cough) he is healthy again, but that health is determined by your own doctors and no one in NHL Head Office is inclined to do any due diligence. If Kucherov and Stone were reinstated when they were really able to come back, both teams would have had to go into the playoffs with no depth, a hole that's too big to climb out of. Tainted I say, in both cases.

[jkr]

Nice schedule stretch for Toronto. The Ducks followed by a home and home against the Sharks . What a bad team. Leafs take both, predictably, by a total of 11-2.

[Willie Dog]

Jan 9, 2024 22:17:04 GMT -5 jkr said:

Nice schedule stretch for Toronto. The Ducks followed by a home and home against the Sharks . What a bad team. Leafs take both, predictably, by a total of 11-2.

It's always best when they have a false sense of security...

[folatre]

Jeje, for sure, let the Leafs big 4 or 5 or whatever it is load up on calories/points in January, not exactly the time of year serious playoff warriors make their names.

How about the disasters in Buffalo and Ottawa? Yikes. And to imagine these reeling teams meeting in 48 hours.

[halihab]

Jan 10, 2024 0:43:33 GMT -5 folatre said:

Jeje, for sure, let the Leafs big 4 or 5 or whatever it is load up on calories/points in January, not exactly the time of year serious playoff warriors make their names.

How about the disasters in Buffalo and Ottawa? Yikes. And to imagine these reeling teams meeting in 48 hours.

Yes, and that disaster team (Buffalo) just spanked our ass 6-1 on home ice. What does that say about our team ?

[seventeen]

Jan 10, 2024 9:26:09 GMT -5 halihab said:

Jan 10, 2024 0:43:33 GMT -5 folatre said:

Jeje, for sure, let the Leafs big 4 or 5 or whatever it is load up on calories/points in January, not exactly the time of year serious playoff warriors make their names.

How about the disasters in Buffalo and Ottawa? Yikes. And to imagine these reeling teams meeting in 48 hours.

Yes, and that disaster team (Buffalo) just spanked our ass 6-1 on home ice. What does that say about our team ?

It's all goaltending. Levi had his best game of the year.

[drkcloud]

Canucks win again.. they know how to draft elite players and bring in former elite players to coach them up and believe in themselves and what it takes to win (unlike another coach I won't mention)

Quinn, Petterson, Boeser, Demko, all elite players they drafted. They've rebuilt on the fly since the Sedin days and are ready to challenge again.

All while we spun our wheels, watch our drafts go nowhere and continue to hold up hope of better days on the horizon

[seventeen]

Jan 11, 2024 22:54:01 GMT -5 drkcloud said:

Canucks win again.. they know how to draft elite players and bring in former elite players to coach them up and believe in themselves and what it takes to win (unlike another coach I won't mention)

Quinn, Petterson, Boeser, Demko, all elite players they drafted. They've rebuilt on the fly since the Sedin days and are ready to challenge again.

All while we spun our wheels, watch our drafts go nowhere and continue to hold up hope of better days on the horizon

The main guy that was in on all those picks is Judd Brackett, who Jim Benning chased out of town. Brackett was hired by Bill Guerin and the Wild July 2020. We’ll have to see if he’s as instrumental there.

[IamCanadiens]

Jan 11, 2024 22:54:01 GMT -5 drkcloud said:

Canucks win again.. they know how to draft elite players and bring in former elite players to coach them up and believe in themselves and what it takes to win (unlike another coach I won't mention)

Quinn, Petterson, Boeser, Demko, all elite players they drafted. They've rebuilt on the fly since the Sedin days and are ready to challenge again.

All while we spun our wheels, watch our drafts go nowhere and continue to hold up hope of better days on the horizon

It's funny how it all came together this year as it was a bit of a tire fire and inconsistency for a couple of seasons. There were doubts about Demko as a legit starter as he played through an injury. Miller was throwing hissy fits on a regular basis. Conflict and inner turmoil appeared regularly. Boeser wasn't producing, labelled as moody and involved in every trade rumour. And of course the coaching change. All in all they didn't do anything too drastic and look at them now. It's amazing what a fine line it is between a contender and non playoff team. Parity. I love it.

[seventeen]

There were a few reasons why the Canucks went from tire fire to contender and it confirms how important it is to have your house in order. Jim Benning was a poor GM and saddled the team with a lot of bad contracts for mediocre players (hmm, where have we heard that before?). The defence especially was weak. Ekman -Larson played poorly, Tyler Myers wasn't good, Hughes was still learning about the defensive side of the game (in which he's quite good now, despite being smallish). There wasn't much depth either, behind the elite players. Jim Rutherford (who has a knack for taking over teams which have elite players) hired Patrick Allvin to be GM. Allvin's moves to date have worked out and he's cleaned up a lot of the poor contracts and built up solid third and fourth lines. The Canucks had Bruce Boudreau as coach prior at that time and the judgment on him is mixed. Boudreau is an offensive style coach and there wasn't much structure to his teams.  Now one can't get too critical because he also didn't have the depth or quality to be able to put his stamp on the club, but structure and discipline were not strong suits. Enter Rick Tocchet. He definitely believes in structure and you can see it in how the Canucks don't chase in their own zone, maintain their 'shape' to use a soccer term and exit smartly. Allvin brought in Hronek, Soucy, Cole and Zadorov. That's 4 dmen who weren't there 10 months ago. Hronek is highly underrated and a genuine top pair Dman. Tocchet and Adam Foote have done a great job with Noah Juulsen, who is now a capable 3rd pair dman, an improvement from an AHL'r and gives Tocchet the opportunity to rest Cole.

There were other changes as well, but the bird's eye view involved cleaning up CAP space, bringing in players who can complement the Hughes', Millers, Pettersson's and Boeser's. The Canucks have also benefited from some high PDO, but when you have really highly skilled players, your PDO is going to be higher because they execute better than most.

Tocchet has some high standards. He stopped practice yesterday because he wasn't happy with the crispness of the passes and showed the team how it should be done, with a laser. The players got a good laugh from that, but the key point was that Tocchet wasn't content with 'good enough'. MSL has some of those qualities. The question I have about him is whether he can implement the structure a real contender needs before they can win the Cup. HuGo are still dealing with the CAP issues and with development, so there's time, but that structure is going to make Marty a great coach or sink him.

[folatre]

What is Chicago doing? I get it. Nick Foligno is a solid guy to have in the room and he does not back down from sticking up for his mates (see Bedard injury), but the dude is going to be 37 years old at the start of 2024-25 and they hand him a two year extension at $4.5 million AAV.

If I were Bedard, I would be thinking whentf are we going to spend some free agent cash or draft capital on actually getting some serious skill guys in their prime years to support me.

I like Luke Richardson a lot. But this Kyle Davidson cat needs to realize that when you get gifted Bedard you cannot slow play things with some yadda yadda organic rebuild. If he is too dense to understand it, then ownership should alter his plan.

[seventeen]

One Pundit show reckoned that Chicago needed desperately to reach the CAP floor next year as two large contracts drop off the books (Johnson being one). One wonders if their master plan is simply to have a salary structure around the floor level and suck every year.

[IamCanadiens]

Jan 12, 2024 22:04:39 GMT -5 folatre said:

What is Chicago doing? I get it. Nick Foligno is a solid guy to have in the room and he does not back down from sticking up for his mates (see Bedard injury), but the dude is going to be 37 years old at the start of 2024-25 and they hand him a two year extension at $4.5 million AAV.

If I were Bedard, I would be thinking whentf are we going to spend some free agent cash or draft capital on actually getting some serious skill guys in their prime years to support me.

I like Luke Richardson a lot. But this Kyle Davidson cat needs to realize that when you get gifted Bedard you cannot slow play things with some yadda yadda organic rebuild. If he is too dense to understand it, then ownership should alter his plan.

Seems to me that they are sucking to build their core. Picking up Celebrini or a top tier blue liner this year would be a nice foundation. That said, Edmonton showed why that approach can be a double edged sword.

[seventeen]

Jan 13, 2024 10:16:33 GMT -5 IamCanadiens said:

Jan 12, 2024 22:04:39 GMT -5 folatre said:

What is Chicago doing? I get it. Nick Foligno is a solid guy to have in the room and he does not back down from sticking up for his mates (see Bedard injury), but the dude is going to be 37 years old at the start of 2024-25 and they hand him a two year extension at $4.5 million AAV.

If I were Bedard, I would be thinking whentf are we going to spend some free agent cash or draft capital on actually getting some serious skill guys in their prime years to support me.

I like Luke Richardson a lot. But this Kyle Davidson cat needs to realize that when you get gifted Bedard you cannot slow play things with some yadda yadda organic rebuild. If he is too dense to understand it, then ownership should alter his plan.

Seems to me that they are sucking to build their core. Picking up Celebrini or a top tier blue liner this year would be a nice foundation. That said, Edmonton showed why that approach can be a double edged sword.

In addition to the high picks you have to have good management. The Oilers, even with mediocre management under Holland (as compared to abysmal management earlier) are contending. The Hawks have a good coach. How good is Kyle Davidson? Not sure yet. The drafting seems ok. I'd guess, though, that Rocky Wirtz isn't a creative owner.

[jkr]

I dont get Colorado sometimes. They have such elite talent but sometimes I look at their highlights & say WTH. They are playing Toronto tonight. None of the "core 4" have a point and yet they're trailing 3-0.

[IamCanadiens]

Jan 13, 2024 14:38:31 GMT -5 seventeen said:

Jan 13, 2024 10:16:33 GMT -5 IamCanadiens said:

Seems to me that they are sucking to build their core. Picking up Celebrini or a top tier blue liner this year would be a nice foundation. That said, Edmonton showed why that approach can be a double edged sword.

In addition to the high picks you have to have good management. The Oilers, even with mediocre management under Holland (as compared to abysmal management earlier) are contending. The Hawks have a good coach. How good is Kyle Davidson? Not sure yet. The drafting seems ok. I'd guess, though, that Rocky Wirtz isn't a creative owner.

That abysmal management was not helped by a meddling owner

[jkr]

Jan 13, 2024 20:03:29 GMT -5 jkr said:

I dont get Colorado sometimes. They have such elite talent but sometimes I look at their highlights & say WTH. They are playing Toronto tonight. None of the "core 4" have a point and yet they're trailing 3-0.

My pep talk worked. Avs comeback with 5 goals to win. Tavares with just 3 shifts in the 3rd period , on the ice for 2 goals. Not bad for 11 million a year.

[Willie Dog]

Jan 13, 2024 22:01:21 GMT -5 jkr said:

Jan 13, 2024 20:03:29 GMT -5 jkr said:

I dont get Colorado sometimes. They have such elite talent but sometimes I look at their highlights & say WTH. They are playing Toronto tonight. None of the "core 4" have a point and yet they're trailing 3-0.

My pep talk worked. Avs comeback with 5 goals to win. Tavares with just 3 shifts in the 3rd period , on the ice for 2 goals. Not bad for 11 million a year.

Someone posted the following on aportsnet...lol

No Sharks or Ducks to feed on in an Avalanche!

[Willie Dog]

Where are the matching purses

https://www.instagram.com/p/C2D8ldus-lE