2nd line this season

[seventeen]

PS. Very few first lines put up 100 goals. The Barkov - Tkachuk - Verghaege line has 83. Florida's 2nd line of Reinhart, Rodrigues and Bennett had 89, because Reinhart had an outlier year. Typically, that line would get 58 goals, not 89.
Florida was the best defensive team giving up only 200 goals for the year. This is really fascinating, because they didn't really score a ton like more than a few other teams did. If you're losing 30 goals (I expect Reinhart to regress), that's going to cost them several games.

[Skilly]

Jul 19, 2024 23:16:54 GMT -5 seventeen said:

Jul 19, 2024 17:59:05 GMT -5 Skilly said:

I keep saying this every year, and I guess I’ll keep saying it until it sinks in.

Production is NOT linear.

If Caufield scores the mythical 40, that means production from another player likely goes down (in this case likely Suzuki). Case in point, last year Suzuki’s goals went up, at the detriment to Caufield’s goals, but it increased his points (assists).

If production was linear, then MTL (and all teams) should be getting 300+ goals since the discussions on so-called “linear production “ began (so and so got 30 last year, he is good for 40 this year. If that’s the case then he is good for 50 then 60, then … )

There is no way the first line can get 100 goals. None. That means they all get 30. Or Caufield gets 50 , and I remind everyone he has yet to score 30 and in the year he was most productive he still wasn’t on a 50 goal pace

I do agree the big unknown is the second line. We can just as easily get 50 from them as we could get 70

Absolutely. That's why Sam Reinhart, who averaged 26 goals per game throughout his career (if we take out 2023/24), suddenly puts up 57 last season. Every guy that might have a down year could be mitigated by someone having an exceptional year. Who's to say Caufield won't score 50 next year? I didn't exaggerate my numbers, I tried to be realistic. I didn't pick the top of any player's range, nor the bottom. I'm not saying Armia is going to get 21 goals next year (his prorated numbers from last season), but we can hope for 15, no? I was optimistic on the first line numbers, but I expect Slaf to get better this year, not worse. I expect Suzjuki to get 30 because he's a good player. If Caufield's  shoulder issues are behind him, he might explode.

Just for kicks I went back to Feb 17, about the last 2 months of the season. Twenty eight games were played in that span.

Suzuki 13-13-26
Caufield 8-11-19
Slaf 8-14-22

That's 29 goals in 28 games, prorated over 82 games as 85 goals. Not 100, obviously. But....of Caufield's 8 goals, 7 of them came in the last 8 games. That's the point I was trying to make. He didn't really start scoring until the last part of the season and a lot of those goals were not assisted by Suzuki or Slaf. Names like Newhook, Armia and Gallagher showed up. Don't ask me why. In those last 8 games (April), the line put up 13 goals, 10 assists. thirteen goals in 8 games equates to 144 goals over a full 82 game season.  Small sample (they're not getting 133 goals next year), but really interesting in that Caufield had that shoulder surgery and we suspected there was something wrong with his shot. It's not unreasonable to assume it finally felt right late in the season and that's why the puck started going in. Or it was just regression. I think that surgery took a long time to heal and that's why he was just a bit off. 

Nothing wrong with 90 goals from the first line. 

Hoping for Caufield to score 50 is the very definition of being unrealistic. You are hoping for his max production. Sure it can happen, anything can happen. But when you map out where goals are coming from you do so by typical production, not pie in the sky. What you did, to reach 100 goals, was assume constant production from Suzuki and Slaf but doubled the production of the third linemate. That's also typically not how production works out like.

First lines will get between 70-90 goals, there will be minor ups and downs with the linemates, but more from one usually reduces the totals of another. That's my way of saying that if Caufield gets 50, Suzuki probably only gets 25 (but his assists go up).

** Just look at Toronto (one of the few team to get 100 from their first line). As Matthews goals go up, Marner's go down. Yes Marner was injured but that also contributed to AM getting more goals as there were less options. Then, as is typical in hockey, teammates start to force the puck to players to help them reach their milestones, also contributing to lower totals of linemates.

[seventeen]

100 goals for any line in the NHL is really difficult. I don't think I ever said it was likely sith regard to our first line. Possible is quite different from likely. What do I think that line is likely to get? Anywhere from 70 to 90 goals. There's a lot of variance which depends on many factors, none of which I can predict.

If you could do a probability sampling of Caufield's goal production, the right tail might extend to the 50 goal plus area. but it would be a real outlier for next year and hold a 2-3% probability. I think many of the possibilities for this team could be achieved with some luck and health. The kids have talent. They just need experience and with that experience comes better production.

[Skilly]

Jul 21, 2024 0:27:13 GMT -5 seventeen said:

100 goals for any line in the NHL is really difficult. I don't think I ever said it was likely sith regard to our first line. Possible is quite different from likely. What do I think that line is likely to get? Anywhere from 70 to 90 goals. There's a lot of variance which depends on many factors, none of which I can predict.

You literally predicted 100 goals. You didn’t seem to distinguish between “likely” or “possible” either.

Jul 17, 2024 12:30:39 GMT -5 seventeen said:

I think the top line can get 100. They had 81 last year with Suzuki having more than we might have expected (30 goals per year, though, is not out of the question for Nick) and Caufield concentrating on other parts of his game as well as still recovering from shoulder surgery. Finally, Slaf didn't get going till after 20 games or so and being saddled with less than stellar line-mates. 30-35-35 is my prediction, for 100 goals.

Now you have me wondering the last time we had three or four 30 goal scorers. I say four because I thought I saw some (not sure if it was on this board or on Twitter) predict a 30 goal scorer on the second line.

If we get three 30 goal scores, then we are soundly into the playoffs . Which is ironic, as a lot of people still consider this year as a right off year

[habsorbed]

Assuming the injury plague doesn't revisit us, we will not be selecting in the top 5 unless the lottery Gods are very kind to us. But I don't believe the lottery Gods will have much of a say as I believe we are a legit playoff contender.

[Boston_Habs]

2nd line is all about Kirby Dach. If he's what we hope he is and can stay healthy, then that's a massive boost for Montreal. I'd be OK dropping Slaf down to that line. I think you need 2 legit studs on a scoring line but not necessarily 3.

Really, the prospects for 2024-25 are as much about Dach as anyone. Organic development on the blueline would be the next biggest factor.

[seventeen]

Jul 22, 2024 8:24:09 GMT -5 Boston_Habs said:

2nd line is all about Kirby Dach. If he's what we hope he is and can stay healthy, then that's a massive boost for Montreal. I'd be OK dropping Slaf down to that line. I think you need 2 legit studs on a scoring line but not necessarily 3.

Really, the prospects for 2024-25 are as much about Dach as anyone. Organic development on the blueline would be the next biggest factor.

Yup. Those are indeed the key factors. Goaltending, as always (unless you have Carey Price in goal) is critical. A combo of Monty and Primeau might do very well, or not so much. To be determined.

I'm also looking forward to seeing what Joshua Roy adds to the team. But....Dach and the young D men are at the top of this hope pyramid.

[Willie Dog]

Jul 22, 2024 14:24:17 GMT -5 seventeen said:

Jul 22, 2024 8:24:09 GMT -5 Boston_Habs said:

2nd line is all about Kirby Dach. If he's what we hope he is and can stay healthy, then that's a massive boost for Montreal. I'd be OK dropping Slaf down to that line. I think you need 2 legit studs on a scoring line but not necessarily 3.

Really, the prospects for 2024-25 are as much about Dach as anyone. Organic development on the blueline would be the next biggest factor.

Yup. Those are indeed the key factors. Goaltending, as always (unless you have Carey Price in goal) is critical. A combo of Monty and Primeau might do very well, or not so much. To be determined.

I'm also looking forward to seeing what Joshua Roy adds to the team. But....Dach and the young D men are at the top of this hope pyramid.

If there isn't a Demidov and no free agents then Roy will make or break the 2nd line... if he plays well the 2nd line is set with Newhook... if not then one of armia or bgal have to be there... not ideal

[Tankdriver]

Not to re-open an older thread, but now knowing that Michkov is coming over this season, do you think the Habs regret not drafting him. The original diagnosis was a 3 year wait but not sure how much that played into their decision at the time.

[seventeen]

My own opinion is that the contract length had little to do with their decision. I'm guessing they had good intel from Nick Bobrov's father that Michkov had poor habits that would be difficult to change. He's also not big so there would be question marks around his potential playoff performance.

I also think that his approach toward the defensive side of the game was too indifferent for the Habs braintrust and, being a big defensive proponent, I have to agree with that. Not doing your share (backchecking, not flying out of the zone early, being hard on board battles) can not only cause breakdowns in the D zone, they can infuriate your teammates. Michkov was on a bad team in the KHL, but I didn't read anything about him leading his team to a better than expected finish. Demidov, OTH, excelled in the playoffs and his team won the championship. That suggests a difference in leadership as well. Of course, we were lucky to get Demidov and HuGo couldn't have known a year earlier that he'd fall to us. Their decision to pass on Michkov was made largely in isolation of other factors. They are also building a TEAM and an RHD was high on their needs list.

Eventually, Montreal's decision is going to come down to which pair is better, Demidov/Reinbacher or Michkov/(Buium, Yakemchuk, etc.). Much will depend on how Reinbacher develops (and how often Michkov is traded ). I see Reinbacher as a #2 dman but many others have him as a #4 at best. Time will give us the answer.

[Tankdriver]

Jul 25, 2024 12:04:42 GMT -5 seventeen said:

My own opinion is that the contract length had little to do with their decision. I'm guessing they had good intel from Nick Bobrov's father that Michkov had poor habits that would be difficult to change. He's also not big so there would be question marks around his potential playoff performance.

I also think that his approach toward the defensive side of the game was too indifferent for the Habs braintrust and, being a big defensive proponent, I have to agree with that. Not doing your share (backchecking, not flying out of the zone early, being hard on board battles) can not only cause breakdowns in the D zone, they can infuriate your teammates. Michkov was on a bad team in the KHL, but I didn't read anything about him leading his team to a better than expected finish. Demidov, OTH, excelled in the playoffs and his team won the championship.

Eventually, Montreal's decision is going to come down to which pair is better, Demidov/Reinbacher or Michkov/(Buium, Yakemchuk, etc.). Much will depend on how Reinbacher develops (and how often Michkov is traded . I see Reinbacher as a #2 dman but many others have him as a #4 at best. Time will give us the answer.

I'm not going to lie. I often wonder what having Michkov and Demidov would be like. We shall see. I really hope Reinbacher turns into a Hedman/Lidstrom kind of player.

[Polarice]

Jul 25, 2024 12:08:02 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

Jul 25, 2024 12:04:42 GMT -5 seventeen said:

My own opinion is that the contract length had little to do with their decision. I'm guessing they had good intel from Nick Bobrov's father that Michkov had poor habits that would be difficult to change. He's also not big so there would be question marks around his potential playoff performance.

I also think that his approach toward the defensive side of the game was too indifferent for the Habs braintrust and, being a big defensive proponent, I have to agree with that. Not doing your share (backchecking, not flying out of the zone early, being hard on board battles) can not only cause breakdowns in the D zone, they can infuriate your teammates. Michkov was on a bad team in the KHL, but I didn't read anything about him leading his team to a better than expected finish. Demidov, OTH, excelled in the playoffs and his team won the championship.

Eventually, Montreal's decision is going to come down to which pair is better, Demidov/Reinbacher or Michkov/(Buium, Yakemchuk, etc.). Much will depend on how Reinbacher develops (and how often Michkov is traded . I see Reinbacher as a #2 dman but many others have him as a #4 at best. Time will give us the answer.

I'm not going to lie. I often wonder what having Michkov and Demidov would be like. We shall see. I really hope Reinbacher turns into a Hedman/Lidstrom kind of player.

A lot of times the Habs management has mentioned a players character as one of the main factors in signing or drafting players. From what was told to me last year, was that it had a lot to do with drafting Slaf and Reinbacher and not Wright and Michkov. Not saying that there were major issues with Wright and Michkov...but take it for what it is.

[folatre]

Sure, I would like to see Michkov pulling on Habs sweater and jumping over the boards with Montreal's second line this season. However, of course, I hope that Reinbacher is going to be 10+ year top-four shut-down stalwart who can skate and intelligently move the puck to the guys who can drive play offensively.

Assuming Hughes is not going to be able to pull off a trade this summer for a young winger who can play and snipe, I would prefer to see Newhook and Roy get a long look with a healthy Dach. But I would not get carried away with expectations. I think Newhook can pot 25 goals. Dach is not a shoot first guy, though if he finds chemistry with those guys I could see 20-22 goals. Roy is tough to get a read on because he does have a pretty good shot and he goes to the areas where rebounds happen, but I would not pile pressure on a kid with 4 goals in 23 NHL games.

[Willie Dog]

Jul 25, 2024 18:59:19 GMT -5 folatre said:

Sure, I would like to see Michkov pulling on Habs sweater and jumping over the boards with Montreal's second line this season. However, of course, I hope that Reinbacher is going to be 10+ year top-four shut-down stalwart who can skate and intelligently move the puck to the guys who can drive play offensively.

Assuming Hughes is not going to be able to pull off a trade this summer for a young winger who can play and snipe, I would prefer to see Newhook and Roy get a long look with a healthy Dach. But I would not get carried away with expectations. I think Newhook can pot 25 goals. Dach is not a shoot first guy, though if he finds chemistry with those guys I could see 20-22 goals. Roy is tough to get a read on because he does have a pretty good shot and he goes to the areas where rebounds happen, but I would not pile pressure on a kid with 4 goals in 23 NHL games.

I can see Roy's smarts help Dach and Newhook get more goals

[seventeen]

Joshua Roy is the anti-Anderson. Lines get better when he's put on them. I wouldn't underestimate that kid. He'll get his share of points, but he'll be responsible defensively and his linemates will love him.

[habsorbed]

Seems like lots of optimism for Roy. Can't say I share it. And certainly not this season. Didn't see that much last season so it would have to be huge improvement and I'm not seeing it.

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

Jul 26, 2024 1:21:30 GMT -5 habsorbed said:

Seems like lots of optimism for Roy. Can't say I share it. And certainly not this season. Didn't see that much last season so it would have to be huge improvement and I'm not seeing it.

Agree!!!
He was good as junior and was drafted. Team injuries were his opportunity in the NHL and he did well over a short period. He never in his career was dominant and thus never disappointed. Slow steady growth and hard work makes a desirable role player with limited upside. Hope he proves me wrong.

[Skilly]

Patrik Laine is out of the NHL Pkayers Assistance Program and eligible to return to the NHL

Columbus is looking to trade him and are said to only want prospects and draft picks. Both MTL has in spades

Does Hughes consider it?

Laine has two years left on his contract and is 26. Right length, right age

[Andrew]

Jul 26, 2024 15:40:14 GMT -5 Skilly said:

Patrik Laine is out of the NHL Pkayers Assistance Program and eligible to return to the NHL

Columbus is looking to trade him and are said to only want prospects and draft picks. Both MTL has in spades

Does Hughes consider it?

Laine has two years left on his contract and is 26. Right length, right age

I'm on board if "right price" is part of the equation. Certainly Laine's value is at an all-time low, which helps. However, I'd imagine there's still plenty of interest and that CBJ will be happy to retain salary if it means getting a better return.

He's still young with a high end toolbox. In the right environment he could thrive. This reminds me a bit of Monahan where a high pedigree player's status has diminished to 'reclamation project' by his mid-twenties. Montreal could be a really good landing spot for him.

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

Jul 26, 2024 15:40:14 GMT -5 Skilly said:

Patrik Laine is out of the NHL Pkayers Assistance Program and eligible to return to the NHL

Columbus is looking to trade him and are said to only want prospects and draft picks. Both MTL has in spades

Does Hughes consider it?

Laine has two years left on his contract and is 26. Right length, right age

I’m old fashioned about recovering from the assistance programs. Would love a six five stud motivated and successful. Sadly this isn’t the usual outcome. Two years is not a big risk to a team under the cap. Infectious attitude is a risk. We have a surplus of young talent and no shortage of picks. Don’t overpay but take a flyer on big risk/reward.

[seventeen]

Jul 26, 2024 15:40:14 GMT -5 Skilly said:

Patrik Laine is out of the NHL Pkayers Assistance Program and eligible to return to the NHL

Columbus is looking to trade him and are said to only want prospects and draft picks. Both MTL has in spades

Does Hughes consider it?

Laine has two years left on his contract and is 26. Right length, right age

Lots of risk. I'd like to see Anderson go the other way, but that's not likely. Dvorak maybe? We should lose one contract at least if we're taking on $18MM in salary. The better the prospects we send, the more likely I want Anderson going too.

[IamCanadiens]

Big skilled and a natural goal scorer. Always thought Laine is an intriguing possibility but high risk/reward. I wonder if Hugo would consider it. If the Habs trade for him straight up the cost would likely be reasonable. Cbus might prefer to increase the return by retaining salary or trading for salary (e.g. Price). If the Habs stay under the salary cap it is better for the salary cap moving forward. Hmmm, I think Laine might be worth the risk for 2 years to see if he fits in, gels with linemates and is in a better place. Sure is fun to toss the idea around.

[folatre]

Laine can rifle a puck like few in the league. And he is a big man who is only 26 years old.

I have no idea what specifically led him to check into the Player Assistance Program. Hopefully he has overcome the problem.

However, I think the longer-standing issue with Laine is the fire in the belly question mark, how much does he actually love playing ice hockey as a demanding job that requires requires a very high level of professional commitment? This is important because I think Hughes and St. Louis are intensely focused on the culture here. I suppose Pascal Vincent could offer management some insights into whether Laine approaches his job like a true professional or like a disinterested kid.

I am relatively sure Montreal would not want anything to do with the full Laine cap hit in 2025-26, thus I think Hughes would have to give Columbus a bit more than Laine's full freight AAV market value if Waddell agrees to eat half. I still do not think the cost would be exorbitant because this is a guy whose career has seriously gone off the rails. Hockey is debatable, but I think by September Columbus may accept as little as Harris and the lower of Montreal's second round picks. Is that worth it to the Habs? Well, it is if intel says Laine is basically a good guy who wants to refocus on his NHL career.

[Willie Dog]

I think 2 years of Laine might work, left wing, under Marty might do him wonders

[Cranky]

Interesting.

Laine is going to thrive in Montreal's pressure cooker?

Drouin waves hello from high up the Rocky mountains.

[habsorbed]

Jul 26, 2024 23:09:31 GMT -5 Cranky said:

Interesting.

Laine is going to thrive in Montreal's pressure cooker?

Drouin waves hello from high up the Rocky mountains.

Interesting comparison. If Laine comes and CJB don't retian some salary, Laine will be our highest paid player. Drouin was our highest paid forward for the longest time. Neither are leaders and don't add anything to team chemistry, and with that cap hit, it's not good for team moral. I don't have a list of players who completed The Program but few regain their old form.

[Cranky]

Jul 26, 2024 21:58:22 GMT -5 folatre said:

I think the longer-standing issue with Laine is the fire in the belly question mark, how much does he actually love playing ice hockey as a demanding job that requires requires a very high level of professional commitment? This is important because I think Hughes and St. Louis are intensely focused on the culture here. I suppose Pascal Vincent could offer management some insights into whether Laine approaches his job like a true professional or like a disinterested kid.

We need to take a very close look at this question.

We already had a close brush with the Dubois bullet, something that could of set the team back a few years. Why exactly do we need to risk another bullet from a known problem child?

This player has massive potential with an equal missive risk. Why take on that risk rather then trading for any number of youngsters that can grow with us.

As much as i want us to improve, do nothing is an option.

[folatre]

I had not thought about that angle, habsorbed. Are there guys who got back to where they once were after completing the Assistance Program? That is an interesting question.

Regarding the situation Columbus is in, Waddell can either retain money or basically keep the player and hope that he plays his way back into being a nice asset that they can trade in 2026.

It is hard to gauge personalities. On the surface, Laine seems like a super laid back dude. But maybe some of his problems as a young adult in the NHL relate to the ways he internalized pressure. Who knows. There is always a risk. But the risk is somewhat mitigated by the limited term (2 years) and the reality that he is definitely slotting in under $6 AAV in the cap structure because otherwise Waddell is stuck with him. But the way Hughes truly keeps it low risk is by drawing the line at handing over nothing more than a couple of decent pieces rather than anything important for the future.

[Skilly]

Jul 27, 2024 10:53:22 GMT -5 habsorbed said:

Jul 26, 2024 23:09:31 GMT -5 Cranky said:

Interesting.

Laine is going to thrive in Montreal's pressure cooker?

Drouin waves hello from high up the Rocky mountains.

Interesting comparison. If Laine comes and CJB don't retian some salary, Laine will be our highest paid player. Drouin was our highest paid forward for the longest time. Neither are leaders and don't add anything to team chemistry, and with that cap hit, it's not good for team moral. I don't have a list of players who completed The Program but few regain their old form.

I'm not so certain the comparison is interesting. Well not in the same way most are looking at it.

Drouin had 63 points in the 94 games before getting traded from TBay. In the next 2 years with Montreal, he got 46 points and 53 points. Which was fairly similar production to what he had in TBay.

Liane is a little older than Drouin was, but Laine has 117 points in his last 129 games. Now I'm not saying we should get him. But of all the players names that have been linked to MTL, he is far and away the most productive. So, can we stop acting like this is Drouin in his last 2 years in MTL.

As for the Assistance Program. We don't know the names of Players that went in, cause most don't go around talking about it. But has there been someone as productive as Laine in it? It could be as simple as Laine losing the fun in hockey in Winnipeg and Columbus.

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

Jul 28, 2024 6:49:25 GMT -5 Skilly said:

Jul 27, 2024 10:53:22 GMT -5 habsorbed said:

Interesting comparison. If Laine comes and CJB don't retian some salary, Laine will be our highest paid player. Drouin was our highest paid forward for the longest time. Neither are leaders and don't add anything to team chemistry, and with that cap hit, it's not good for team moral. I don't have a list of players who completed The Program but few regain their old form.

I'm not so certain the comparison is interesting. Well not in the same way most are looking at it.

Drouin had 63 points in the 94 games before getting traded from TBay. In the next 2 years with Montreal, he got 46 points and 53 points. Which was fairly similar production to what he had in TBay.

Liane is a little older than Drouin was, but Laine has 117 points in his last 129 games. Now I'm not saying we should get him. But of all the players names that have been linked to MTL, he is far and away the most productive. So, can we stop acting like this is Drouin in his last 2 years in MTL.

As for the Assistance Program. We don't know the names of Players that went in, cause most don't go around talking about it. But has there been someone as productive as Laine in it? It could be as simple as Laine losing the fun in hockey in Winnipeg and Columbus.

I would like someone to explain to me why Drouin never played up to his potential. Great skater, accurate shooter, hockey sense and outstanding junior career. He was given lots of opportunities in several different teams and situations. The surprising thing is after smart GMs gave up on him the next GM thinks things will change. PierreLuc has all the tools and opportunities to succeed. I’ll take Pezettas desire and effort over skill and a history of effort.