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Post by BadCompany on Nov 21, 2007 13:08:12 GMT -5
Crazy conspiracy theory based on Bob Mackenzie’s recent column ( What about Corey Perry?). To summarize, given the Ducks cap situation, and the amount of players they have locked up for next season, it seems unlikely that they will be able to afford Perry, and that makes him a prime target for a hostile RFA offer next summer. Personally I have always been of the opinion that clever GMs can get around the cap pretty easily. For example, Burke could always buy out or trade Todd Bertuzzi, and free up money that way. Having said that, I can’t help but wonder if Burke is intentionally leaving Perry unsigned, in the hopes that somebody makes him an offer. When the Oilers made that RFA offer to Dustin Penner, I suggested that Burke let them have him, as it would give him some very nice picks in the upcoming draft. As it stands, the Ducks have a pretty decent chance at getting a lottery pick, if not the 1st overall (to say nothing of a high second and a high third round pick as well). Given the “success” of that move, I wonder if Burke has decided to adopt this as a cap-management strategy… He locks up most of his key guys, and dangles one out there as a RFA… opposing GMs, like Lowe, think they have Burke over the barrell and make an offer, effectively trading for the RFA, using draft picks that they wouldn’t have ordinarily given up in a “normal” trade. Mackenzie suggest that Perry is “due” somewhere between $4 million and $5.35 million. Depending on how the numbers shake out, this could be as much as two 1st round picks, a second round pick and a 3rd round pick. Burke keeps Perry for the season, and then waits for somebody to make him an “overpayment” (RFA) trade offer of high draft picks. If nobody does, then great, he keeps Perry, at a salary level that fits in with his team. Perry, having no other leverage other than a RFA offer from another team, either sits out, or takes whatever Burke tells him to take… Burke now has six picks in the first three rounds of the upcoming draft, three from the Penner “trade”, thus ensuring that he’s going to have high level prospects coming into his system for years to come. Imagine if he adds six-eight more high level prospects this summer, while only losing Perry? Penner and Perry for three 1st round picks, two 2nd round picks and two 3rd round picks? |
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Nov 21, 2007 14:32:01 GMT -5
Well, the way you present it makes the whole concept good sense BC. Corey Perry would certainly be a great edition to any team but at what price?
If MacKenzie is suggesting Perry is worth as much as he says, then it's possible Burke is (literally) banking on another flinch that will land him the draft picks he's banking.
The other side of the coin might be that Burke is looking down the road at his team's finances now that Getzlaf is signed. Is it possible that he simply won't be able to afford Perry?
However, I think your post does justice to pointing just how good a job Burke is doing in Anaheim. He must have one heck of a support staff. I mean the guy knows the prospects, the players around the league and has the business savvy for the game.
In two years he brought Anaheim from where they were to being Stanley Cup champions. And he's not finished yet. If he does have a plan in place, like you suggest, WRT Perry, then it's just good management; asset management and business management.
Would I take a stab a Perry? No. For two reasons:
* I wouldn't pay that kind of salary for a guy who is coming into a team with a different attitude and support staff; and
* I wouldn't want to give up the compensation. It would weaken our future and only strengthen Anaheim's.
But, you're right. Maybe Burke has learned the business value to what McTavish did with Penner. And if he has, then he's obviously better for it.
Cheers.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Nov 21, 2007 18:56:26 GMT -5
I attended a Kings game and the stands were 1/2 full. HALF. They are offering my son a college discount, $10 per ticket and still half full.
Gate receipts are going down. TV revenue is rock bottom in the US.
Look for the cap to drop next year.
Guys like Richards will become available as will some very good free agents.
The Canadian teams will have lots of loonies in the bank.
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Post by Doc Holliday on Nov 22, 2007 15:28:50 GMT -5
...Dunno if I'd call it a strategy myself or a lack of it.... Offer sheets to RFAs is a rather new reality but one that will most certainly catch on. Players like Perry and Penner are high quality young NHL players, you can draft for many years without ever actually develloping such players... That and how the team that signed your player will fare in the standings remains a big question mark in August, therefore you don,t know if your going to get a high or low pick... Frankly speaking, if I was Burke and felt I could not keep Perry than I'd trade him and take control of what his return is going to be rather than leave that up in the air. If Burke keeps losing players like Penner and Perry for handful of picks every year, his team ain't gonna stay competitive for too long IMO.
Penner and Perry for 3 firsts? Where do I sign.
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Post by habmeister on Nov 22, 2007 18:06:47 GMT -5
i think only a gm like lowe or ferguson who feel desperate to do something/anything to keep themselves from getting fired are short-sighted enough to give up that many picks for one player. unless his name is malkin, ovechkin, crosby, phaneuf, these 2nd tier rfa's will not get offers from gm's who feel safe in their jobs.
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Post by seventeen on Nov 22, 2007 20:43:19 GMT -5
i think only a gm like lowe or ferguson who feel desperate to do something/anything to keep themselves from getting fired are short-sighted enough to give up that many picks for one player. unless his name is malkin, ovechkin, crosby, phaneuf, these 2nd tier rfa's will not get offers from gm's who feel safe in their jobs. It only takes two to start a bidding war. If you can get a Perry type of scorer (he's doing well this year, ain't he, and he's deadly in shootouts) for a 1st, 2nd and 3rd, you'd have every GM jumping in. It really was hard to understand Lowe's thinking. I could see offering Perry that kind of money, but Penner? Did he get the names mixed up? Penner's a 20 goal, 40 point guy, and those aren't worth $4MM+. PS. Is Brian Burke considered so erratic and brilliant that we start to wonder if he isn't deliberately doing something he's been forced into? I think he's just run out of key players he can afford to keep. Giguere, Pronger and Getzlaff are slam dunks. Think of Lecavalier, St. Louis and Richards. After that, you better have at least some very good, cheap players and you have a chance at the cup. Our goaltending is good, we don't have a Pronger, but we're not far out on defense. We don't have a Getzlaff yet or maybe even a McDonald. But it falls off for Anaheim after that too. They're not winning as convincingly this year as last. Niedermayer and Selanne aren't replaceable. |
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Post by Doc Holliday on Nov 23, 2007 10:50:47 GMT -5
Penner's a 20 goal, 40 point guy, and those aren't worth $4MM+. Penner scored 30 goals last year in his second season. He's built and plays like your prototypical power forward. A 40 goals season is definitely not out of reach for this player in a near future. I do agree that he might not have been proven enough to get the kind of offer Lowe did but IMO these will happen more and more. Sure Lowe is taking a risk on a young player that has not proved a whole lot but since no UFAs want to play in Edmonton anyway, it's not like that money could be spent better elsewhere, and highly paid proven UFA often don't pan out too... Lowe is forcing the hands of guys in more appealing markets to secure their quality RFAs before trying to gobble up all the interesting UFAs. Faire game IMO. |
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Post by jkr on Nov 23, 2007 11:05:16 GMT -5
...Dunno if I'd call it a strategy myself or a lack of it.... Offer sheets to RFAs is a rather new reality but one that will most certainly catch on. Players like Perry and Penner are high quality young NHL players, you can draft for many years without ever actually develloping such players... That and how the team that signed your player will fare in the standings remains a big question mark in August, therefore you don,t know if your going to get a high or low pick... Frankly speaking, if I was Burke and felt I could not keep Perry than I'd trade him and take control of what his return is going to be rather than leave that up in the air. If Burke keeps losing players like Penner and Perry for handful of picks every year, his team ain't gonna stay competitive for too long IMO. Penner and Perry for 3 firsts? Where do I sign. Not to mention Bryzgalov. He was placed on waivers for what reason, so he could bring up Jonas Hiller. I don't know anything about Hiller but this doesn't seem like sound asset management to me. He loses a good goalie with playoff experience and with a relatively cheap salary for nothing. This is the kind of move that Gainey has been roasted for in the past but the hockey world has given Burke a pass on it. |
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Post by BadCompany on Nov 23, 2007 11:43:42 GMT -5
Time will tell, but I think you guys are underestimating Burke…
Every time a team is perceived to be in “salary cap” trouble, everybody comes out and starts tossing out these ridiculous offers, because “so-and-so has to accept it, he has cap troubles.” Burke has set his team up so that the majority of his key players are signed long term, and the one guy who he *might* not be able to afford, has little contract leverage, and Burke cannot lose him for anything less than three high picks.
He has Bobby Ryan, a second overall pick, coming up, along with two more first rounders this year, including a potential top 5 pick (if not first overall) in what is percieved to be a very good draft. Plus, he has two more second round picks, and two more third round picks. If he loses Perry, he’ll have three first round picks, maybe four, three second round picks, and three third round picks. That’s potentially ten picks in the first three rounds this year!
And he still has Giguere, Getzlaf, Pronger, Macdonald, Paulsson, Beauchemin, etc. all signed long term. Not to mention cap room to bring back either Niedermeyer or Selanne (if not both) this year for another Cup run.
Seems to me that the Ducks are poised to be a very good team, for a very long time, especially if their amateur scouting is half decent… 10 picks in the first three rounds this year, including a potential lottery pick? Imagine what Timmins could do with that…
As for Brzygalov and Hiller, if you REALLY want to pull a conspiracy theory out of the air, Burke could have put Bryzgalov on waivers, actually HOPING that Phoenix would take him. He knows Edmonton can't take him, as they have no cap room, so by making Phoenix a better team, they could actually pass the Oilers in the standings, making the Ducks-Penner pick all that much better. How is that for a Pollackian move?
EDIT: Duh@me... the picks obviously wouldn't be all next year... they'd be spread out over the next couple of years. Still...
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Post by mic on Nov 23, 2007 12:24:15 GMT -5
As for Brzygalov and Hiller, if you REALLY want to pull a conspiracy theory out of the air, Burke could have put Bryzgalov on waivers, actually HOPING that Phoenix would take him. He knows Edmonton can't take him, as they have no cap room, so by making Phoenix a better team, they could actually pass the Oilers in the standings, making the Ducks-Penner pick all that much better. How is that for a Pollackian move? He could also have directly traded Brzygalov to Phoenix (for future considerations or whatever) and made himself look better. Moreover, Phoenix wasn't the first team to choose, right? (Still, I'm curious: did Gainey have one of Nashville's or Anaheim's opponents pick in the Hainsey and Beauchemin fiascos?) |
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Post by BadCompany on Nov 23, 2007 12:55:23 GMT -5
He could also have directly traded Brzygalov to Phoenix (for future considerations or whatever) and made himself look better. Moreover, Phoenix wasn't the first team to choose, right? (Still, I'm curious: did Gainey have one of Nashville's or Anaheim's opponents pick in the Hainsey and Beauchemin fiascos?) I doubt Burke cares one hoot what other people think of him. Maybe he did try to trade with Phoenix, but the Coyotes didn't bite. Who knows? If I'm not mistaken, the Coyotes had the 3rd crack at Bryzgalov, so it was not a huge gamble on Burke's part. Especially with Buffalo having one of the other spots (Washington had the first). And really, it's his backup guy, who had played, what, twice in the 8 games before being put on waivers? Not like he was touching the core of his team. Even if Phoenix passes on him, and somebody else takes him, so what? As for Hainsey and Beauchemin, I don't think Gainey had anybody's opponent in mind. First, we didn't have anybody's pick to play this kind of trick, and second, Beauchemin was lost in the off-season (before the lockout to boot), and Hainsey was lost when we were decimated by injuries on the blueline (played a couple of games with only five defenseman, because of it, if I recall correctly). |
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Post by Skilly on Nov 23, 2007 13:16:22 GMT -5
He has Bobby Ryan, a second overall pick, coming up, along with two more first rounders this year, including a potential top 5 pick (if not first overall) in what is percieved to be a very good draft. Plus, he has two more second round picks, and two more third round picks. If he loses Perry, he’ll have three first round picks, maybe four, three second round picks, and three third round picks. That’s potentially ten picks in the first three rounds this year! I think Anaheim only has 1 first round pick this year .. Edmonton's. Their own first round pick was sent to Edmonton in the Chris Pronger deal. So Edmonton owns Anaheim's and Anaheim owns Edmonton's. |
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Post by BadCompany on Nov 23, 2007 13:23:32 GMT -5
Stop punching holes in my theory!!!
You guys are lousy conspiracy theorists. You're all out of the club.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Nov 23, 2007 13:56:22 GMT -5
Stop punching holes in my theory!!! You guys are lousy conspiracy theorists. You're all out of the club. Well, it's the last time I'll agree with you then  Then again ... maybe not ... Cheers. |
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Post by jkr on Nov 23, 2007 15:19:43 GMT -5
As for Brzygalov and Hiller, if you REALLY want to pull a conspiracy theory out of the air, Burke could have put Bryzgalov on waivers, actually HOPING that Phoenix would take him. He knows Edmonton can't take him, as they have no cap room, so by making Phoenix a better team, they could actually pass the Oilers in the standings, making the Ducks-Penner pick all that much better. How is that for a Pollackian move? He could also have directly traded Brzygalov to Phoenix (for future considerations or whatever) and made himself look better. Moreover, Phoenix wasn't the first team to choose, right? (Still, I'm curious: did Gainey have one of Nashville's or Anaheim's opponents pick in the Hainsey and Beauchemin fiascos?) Not sure if you are aware mic but Beauchemin was originally claimed by Columbus. It was the Blue Jackets that sent him to Anaheim in the Fedorov deal. |
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Post by jkr on Nov 23, 2007 15:24:02 GMT -5
He could also have directly traded Brzygalov to Phoenix (for future considerations or whatever) and made himself look better. Moreover, Phoenix wasn't the first team to choose, right? (Still, I'm curious: did Gainey have one of Nashville's or Anaheim's opponents pick in the Hainsey and Beauchemin fiascos?) I doubt Burke cares one hoot what other people think of him. Maybe he did try to trade with Phoenix, but the Coyotes didn't bite. Who knows? If I'm not mistaken, the Coyotes had the 3rd crack at Bryzgalov, so it was not a huge gamble on Burke's part. Especially with Buffalo having one of the other spots (Washington had the first). And really, it's his backup guy, who had played, what, twice in the 8 games before being put on waivers? Not like he was touching the core of his team. Even if Phoenix passes on him, and somebody else takes him, so what? As for Hainsey and Beauchemin, I don't think Gainey had anybody's opponent in mind. First, we didn't have anybody's pick to play this kind of trick, and second, Beauchemin was lost in the off-season (before the lockout to boot), and Hainsey was lost when we were decimated by injuries on the blueline (played a couple of games with only five defenseman, because of it, if I recall correctly). Still BC, you have seen the reaction here to Hainsey & Beauchemin. If BG let an asset similar to Bryzgalov go on waivers people here would be calling for his head. Also, the way I remember the Hainsey call up was that Souray was hurt, Markov was suspended for abusing an official in Toronto & Komisarek was with his ailing mother. Anybody have more info on that time? |
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Post by BadCompany on Nov 23, 2007 15:55:45 GMT -5
That depends. If Gainey was GM of the a Habs team that had just won the Cup, a team that was favored to repeat, and he had Scott Niedermeyer and Teemu Selanne sitting in his back pocket, AND he was in a position to possibly secure himself a top 5 pick in next summer's draft, I think most Hab fans would be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and not complain too much if he lost his backup goalie for nothing.
Results, in other words, trump all else.
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Post by Doc Holliday on Dec 14, 2007 16:19:20 GMT -5
...Eklund chimes in with rumors involving Perry and Koivu now.
When asked about all those rumors, Brian Burke gave the following quote : "...if that BC from HABSRUS thinks he's got me figured out, well he's got another thing coming...pfffffft..."
disclaimer: that quote might not be totaly, 100% accurate, the "pffft" part could have been "sheesh" or even "sapristi"
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Post by jkr on Dec 14, 2007 16:35:35 GMT -5
...Eklund chimes in with rumors involving Perry and Koivu now. When asked about all those rumors, Brian Burke gave the following quote : "...if that BC from HABSRUS thinks he's got me figured out, well he's got another thing coming...pfffffft..."disclaimer: that quote might not be totaly, 100% accurate, the "pffft" part could have been "sheesh" or even "sapristi"This is like the Koivu - Selanne rumors in reverse - instead of Selanne coming to Montreal, Koivu is going to the Ducks. I guess if one rumor doesn't pan out, try another. BTW, be careful, you don't want BC looking over his shoulder now.  |
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Dec 14, 2007 18:23:54 GMT -5
My memories of Corey Perry is the battle he had when he lost the OHL scoring title to Corey Locke.
I was really imepressed with Locke's determination when he overcame Perry's lead and won the scoring title.
Shows how much I know!
I am surprised with all that has happened to Locke since his scoring magic as a junior. He is a mediocre AHL player, still scores, but not what I hoped for.
There must be more to this than the old debate, size matters because little guys in Tampa, Detroit and Chicage are overcoming the size issue.
Perry would look good with a CH on his chest.
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Post by legaspesien on Dec 14, 2007 18:58:05 GMT -5
And to ad to the puzzel Anahein just trade for Doug Weight Salary: $3,500,000 ....For
Andy McDonald Salary: $3,333,300
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