My look at our Deadline Situation

[Douper]

"Kids sick, day off thread" should have been the thread name

Here's how I see the Habs today and what could and should be done at the deadline:

Our Roster now (red denotes home grown)

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Up Front

Kovalev Plekanec Kostitsin
Ryder Koivu Higgins
Latendresse Lapierre Kostitsin
Begin Smolinski Kostopoulous

Farm, Players who I think are NHL bound:

Kyle Chipchura (Next Year)
Max Pacioretty (couple of years)
Matt D'Agostini (maybe next year)

I don't believe the rest of the guys will have the oppertunity to play for the habs.

Grabovski, Maxwell, White, Russell, Locke

So not much here in depth...

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Defense

Markov Komisarek
Hamrlik O'Byrne
Gorges Bouillon/Streit

Farm:

Valetenko (NHL bound)
Carle (Could be)
McDonagh (could be)
Fisher (could be)
Emelin (should be)
Cepek (Could)
Stejskal (Could)
Torp (Could)

The rest:

Cote, Webber, Subban, Korneev, Paquet

Not really tradeable: breezer, dandy

Goalies[/size]

Huet
Price

farm:

Halak

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alright now that was my "rough assessment" of the habs.

Here's what I would do:

1st trade:

To Atlanta: Ryder/Emelin/Grabovski/Halak or/and 1 of college Dmen/1st Rnd Pick

Thrashers needs: Depth upfront, young D, Picks

To Montreal: Marian Hossa/Eric Boulton

2nd Trade:

To LA: Dandeneault, D'Agostini, 4th

To Montreal: Jaroslav Modry

Kings: Picks, youth

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Here's what it would look like:


Kovalev Plekanec Kostitsin
Hossa Koivu Higgins
Latendresse Lapierre Kostitsin
Begin Smolinski Boulton

Extras: Streit, Kostopoulous

Markov Komisarek
Hamrlik Modry
Gorges Bouillon

Extras: Streit, O'Byrne. 5 and 6 could go with any of those 4.
Extra Extra: Breezer

[Disgruntled70sHab]

Heck of a lot of work, Douper. Thanks!

Will get back to it when work permits. Have to think this one over.

Man ... good post.

Cheers.

[CrocRob]

Wow good call on Modry. He'd completely slipped under my radar.

[franko]

You're saying . . .

bye-bye to PB and Streit for next year, insert farm hand?
bye-bye to Smoke/insert Chips?

You know . . . I like it. We get better. That would make me happy. Still not "there" but a whole lot closer. And two lines that are feared so that Kovy's isn't keyed on.

Still don't believe Ryder's lack of production is all his fault, and that he will be better out of Montreal . . . and I'll wish him well wherever he goes.

And I'm not sold on Higgins. I like him but if he's the deal breaker for a signed Hossa I'll help him pack. and then, of course, be first in line to whine about Hossa if he falters . . .

[CentreHice]

Douper....send it to the powers that be. Who knows...stranger things have happened.

Good work.

[blny]

Good post Douper. I think the particulars are right in the Hossa deal. Getting Boutlon back adds toughness, but he's prone to really bad penalties. I've said before that in order to do a deal of that magnitude Hossa needs to sign long term.

Modry is an interesting option. he's only -2 on a rather bad Kings team. He's not gifted offensively, he's not physical, but he is very efficient. Modry is making $1.2 million this year and is a UFA at the end of the year. So, we give LA a player signed for another year after this, a prospect, and a pick. Dandy is making more, so is it a dump from our perspective and incentive for LA to take on the contract? I think it's overpaying, but it lowers our payroll for the season and gives us greater flexibility for signing Streit.

[Skilly]

*ahem* .. Ryder is "home-grown".

Hossa is going to cost us Higgins. No "if,ands,or buts" about that.

I really do not think LA is going to take our scraps for Modry. To get Modry we are looking at a second round pick minimum along with a decent prospect (I dont consider D'Agostini in that ilk). You say Dandy is not really tradeable (and I agree) and we get a decent defenseman for him in Modry.

It is a nice well thought out plan, and would be nice if it came to fruition ....

[Disgruntled70sHab]

douper said:

Here's what I would do:

1st trade:

To Atlanta: Ryder/Emelin/Grabovski/Halak or/and 1 of college Dmen/1st Rnd Pick

Thrashers needs: Depth upfront, young D, Picks

To Montreal: Marian Hossa/Eric Boulton

Two very essential players who will find places in Montreal. I think Boulton would assume the same role as Dan McGratton has in Ottawa. McGratton only dresses when it's necessary and from what I've read elsewhere Boulton doesn't mind this role.

However, I'm wondering what it would take to also land Tobias Enstrom. He's considered a rookie this year but he's already 23 years old. He has international experience as well.

2nd Trade:

To LA: Dandeneault, D'Agostini, 4th

To Montreal: Jaroslav Modry

I'm wondering if a 4th would be enough.

Good post Doup.

Cheers.

[Douper]

*ahem* .. Ryder is "home-grown".

Hossa is going to cost us Higgins. No "if,ands,or buts" about that.

I really do not think LA is going to take our scraps for Modry. To get Modry we are looking at a second round pick minimum along with a decent prospect (I dont consider D'Agostini in that ilk).

It is a nice well thought out plan, and would be nice if it came to fruition ....

If LA trades Blake they will probably get a lot in return. And they'll atleast want some experience for Modry. I put a 4th but a 3rd, 2nd would be good for me. Regardless they'd lose him for nothing at seasons end. D'Agostini will atleast be a 3rd liner for them who can score. But of course you need 2 to tango. If I were Gainey I'd look into these avenues.

As for Atlanta.... he did deal Coburn for Zhitnik.

Coburn:
Year to date: 2007-08 54 4 20 24 +11

Zhitnik
Year to date: 2007-08 57 2 4 6 -8

[Douper]

Quote:2nd Trade:

To LA: Dandeneault, D'Agostini, 4th

To Montreal: Jaroslav Modry


I'm wondering if a 4th would be enough.

Good post Doup.

Cheers.

Thanks,

Probably not enough to land Modry. I would give them a 2nd or 3rd if need be.

[Patty Roy]

Interesting post.

I like the idea of getting Boulton from Atlanta, especially as an add in/throw in for a Hossa deal. But i do agree with the sentiment that Higgins will have to be included in a deal for Hossa.

But lets assume the whole Hossa thing never materializes. Do you trade Dandeneault for Bolton? I would. Gives us more grit, a guy who accepts his role as a 13th forward, and cap relief for next season.

Never been a Modry fan...not sure that he's the d-man id target, but certainly we have a need for a solid #4. Barret Jackman would be the ultimate, but likely too costly.

Tobias Endstrom is not a guy that the Thrashers are going to give up. He's playing 24 minutes a night for that club.

[HFTO]

After the Stillman trade with the Hurricanes getting Eaves a decent comparison to Higgins I agree Atlanta would insist Higgy be have to part of the deal.
HFTO

[Douper]

After the Stillman trade with the Hurricanes getting Eaves a decent comparison to Higgins I agree Atlanta would insist Higgy be have to part of the deal.
HFTO

But Higgins or Eaves haven't scored 30 goals the last 2 years. Ryder has to have some value.

[Skilly]

douper said:

After the Stillman trade with the Hurricanes getting Eaves a decent comparison to Higgins I agree Atlanta would insist Higgy be have to part of the deal.
HFTO

But Higgins or Eaves haven't scored 30 goals the last 2 years. Ryder has to have some value.

Ryder is our press-box boy, a third or fourth liner on most nights, and only a serviceable first liner when all else fails .... Atlanta is going to want a first liner, for a first liner ... and all the arguements we hear on this board about Ryder's play will be used by Atlanta as well.

Then when Ryder is traded and starts scoring in bunches on the first or second line playing regular time with his new team, that GM will be laughing at the fleecing he pulled on Gainey.

[Doc Holliday]

Personally, I' revisit the Koivu/Marleau swap... Both players are struggling, are in need of change and have a very high potential of bouncing back with a new team... Plus we'd finally, finally add some size down the middle. Put the C on Kovalev, he's been acting like it since the season started anyway.

[HFTO]

I have no problem with that swap even if we had to throw in a d- man Doc.Atleast we get bigger and younger and if you make another deal for a scoring RW then Marleau will get back on track much like Koivu may with a new start.
It would atleast be a start or a finish to the changing of the guard here.The more I think about it the further I believe we are.
This deal would be as much about the future as anything.I would still move Huet and Ryder for whatever and possible and look at a few others.Hopefully the team would still make the playoffs and get some experience.If you could get some assest now with another draft and some more depth then the Habs are in a better spot next year to make a serious move.
HFTO

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

skilly said:

douper said:

But Higgins or Eaves haven't scored 30 goals the last 2 years. Ryder has to have some value.

Ryder is our press-box boy, a third or fourth liner on most nights, and only a serviceable first liner when all else fails .... Atlanta is going to want a first liner, for a first liner ... and all the arguements we hear on this board about Ryder's play will be used by Atlanta as well.

Then when Ryder is traded and starts scoring in bunches on the first or second line playing regular time with his new team, that GM will be laughing at the fleecing he pulled on Gainey.

We saw how well Samsonov responded to a change of scenery in Chicago.
Ryder needs more than just a change of scenery. The ice in a new city won't put the puck in the net for him.
I think a long rest is the best thing for Ryder. Let him come back in a few weeks with the batteries recharged. Right now he isn't good for anyone including himself.
He is still young enough to turn it around, but he has to do it himself.

[HFTO]

But look what Sammy's doing in Carolina,Ryder some how lost his game trying to improve his defense but forgot about his offense jumoing in holes a shooting first.I don't think he's had all that fair a shake but he at the same time hasn't listened and continues to over handle the puck rather than doing what he does best.A UFA he will be dealt probaly in a deal the Habs will regret but it'll be better than getting nothing.Sometimes those late round picks find you a gem,look at Yanic Weber he maybe a nice one.
HFTO

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

hfto said:

But look what Sammy's doing in Carolina,Ryder some how lost his game trying to improve his defense but forgot about his offense jumoing in holes a shooting first.I don't think he's had all that fair a shake but he at the same time hasn't listened and continues to over handle the puck rather than doing what he does best.A UFA he will be dealt probaly in a deal the Habs will regret but it'll be better than getting nothing.Sometimes those late round picks find you a gem,look at Yanic Weber he maybe a nice one.
HFTO

Ryder is a UFA. There will be a lot of UFA's available this year. What makes anybody think that GM's will be opening their purse strings to Ryder. Ryder will be offered a lot less than Gainey would have given him last year in a multi year deal. (If JFJ was still in TO Ryder may have received a big offer, but even Milbury won't give Mike a 5 year sweethart deal). Gainey may resign him for less than we originally thought.

[ropoflu]

If traded, Ryder may end up being another John Leclair just as he could turn into a Brian Savage.

We just don't know. But something has to be done.

[zenseeker]

I wonder what it would cost to get Ethan Moreau out of the oil. He has been seriously hurt with a shoulder injury and a broken leg the last two years. He is healthy now and is one of those guys that goes to war each and every night.

[habmeister]

ropoflu said:

If traded, Ryder may end up being another John Leclair just as he could turn into a Brian Savage.

We just don't know. But something has to be done.

i'll bet my bank account he will never become another john leclair. more like a savage, good comparison.

if he does end up scoring 30 goals it won't be on a good team, he'll likely be signed by a bottom 15 team who will overlook his shortcomings and who play a slow grinding game, like the leafs, flames, canucks, he won't be signed by a speedy team like the sabres, habs, ducks.

my two bits

[Skilly]

habmeister said:

ropoflu said:

If traded, Ryder may end up being another John Leclair just as he could turn into a Brian Savage.

We just don't know. But something has to be done.

i'll bet my bank account he will never become another john leclair. more like a savage, good comparison.

if he does end up scoring 30 goals it won't be on a good team, he'll likely be signed by a bottom 15 team who will overlook his shortcomings and who play a slow grinding game, like the leafs, flames, canucks, he won't be signed by a speedy team like the sabres, habs, ducks.

my two bits

Well, who knows what the future holds ..... like LeClair maybe Ryder finds himself on a great line (say Crosby's). But Ryder has more goals, more assists, and more points in three seasons (thats neglecting this crappy statistical fourth year) than LeClair has in his first 5 seasons. Ryder started when he was 24, LeCalir when he was 23 .... all he needs now, is a Renberg and a Lindros.

[Douper]

Would have I ever overpayed as Modry went for a 3rd.