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Post by CentreHice on Jan 12, 2015 16:56:02 GMT -5
41-Game Mark against the Pens…and we don't play til Wednesday. Might as well talk about what we need for the second half of the season. Here's ESPN'S Power Rankings for this week. We sit 9th. I can't argue with who they put ahead of us….in the context of meeting in a playoff series, with personnel remaining status quo. Not a ton to complain about, considering our talent. Price has been outstanding. Gonchar has been playing some really good hockey. Hope he can keep it up. Emelin still hasn't returned to his best. Subban has been concentrating on defence first and is doing quite well…but his game-changer mode appears to be in neutral. I don't recall many Subbanesque plays since he came out of the penalty box and scored vs. Colorado. Sekac isn't getting a fair shake, IMO. Especially on the PP….which definitely needs improvement if we're going anywhere near Stanley. The usual suspects appear to be going a bit dormant as well. I'm sure our stats guys can be more precise. Have at it. Report card time. .
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Post by Polarice on Jan 12, 2015 17:37:25 GMT -5
My only real complaint is our Power play.....I'm sure if we were in the top third of the league we would be top 3 overall.
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Post by seventeen on Jan 12, 2015 18:59:27 GMT -5
This may be the longest season that Sekac has played, so like many college grads, it's new territory for him and he'll have to get used to it. I still think he'll be one of our two top wingers by the end of the year, or at least he could be, if handled well.
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Post by BadCompany on Jan 13, 2015 13:30:54 GMT -5
I'll right, I'll give out some grades.
Note, grades are based on expectations and skill set. So a guy like Dale Weise can still get a high mark, even if he's not in the Carey Price stratosphere in terms of skill or game impact.
A+
Carey Price. Expected and delivered.
A
Subban and Markov. I've explained why I think Subban is quietly having the best year of his career before, and as far as Markov goes he's having another solid year. Hopefully he doesn't fade down the stretch.
Pacioretty: Max has added a new element to his game - leadership. He's quietly gunning for the C and I'm not sure there is an argument against giving it to him. Even La Journal de Montreal endorsed giving it to him last week.
The only reason these three don't get A+ is because of the power-play.
B
Therrien, Gonchar, Galchenyuk, Gallagher and Weise. They are all just about where I thought they would be. Which is both good and bad. Good in that they haven't regressed, bad in that they haven't blown you away either. Gallagher doesn't look like he's going to break the 25 goal mark this year, and his power-play stats are dreadful. Galchenyuk has been good and shown flashes, but he hasn't taken over a game yet. 70 points was my highest hope for him this year, and while some of that can be blamed on coaching some of it's just been Galchenyuk not yet being elite. Weise has done everything asked of him. Hasn't excelled at it, but he's been the jack-of-all-trades that teams love to have. As for Gonchar... well he's played well above my expectations, but the primary reason he was brought in (allegedly) was the power-play, and he's had no impact there.
Therrien gets a B because you can't argue with results. Yes, a lot of it has to do with Carey Price, but not all of it in my opinion. We don't always understand why he does things, but more often than not they work out.
C+
Parenteau, Sekac, Beaulieu, Prust: You can't really say these guys have done anything wrong, but they also haven't done anything really right either. They've done their job, and not much else. For guys like Sekac and Beaulieu, at this stage of their respective careers, that's okay. You would have liked to have seen one or both of them seize the reigns and run with them a bit better, but there is still time for both of them. And yes, I am aware that the counter-argument is "Therrien". I don't buy it. There is nothing to say that given more time or better linemates that they would be better. In fact, in the case of Beaulieu I think he really needed to be sheltered and mentored, because I think he's a bit of a headcase. Gotta be careful with those. Parenteau and Prust have sort of underwhelmed, but not to the point where you're worried every time they're on the ice.
C
Plekanec, Malhotra, Eller, Desharnais, Weaver. I guess I just expected more from these guys. Plekanec was supposed to be free from all the defensive zone responsibilities and key faceoffs and with better wingers was supposed to be more offensive. Hasn't really happened, and he still doesn't look like a guy who is going to be a key player in the playoffs. Eller has provided little offense, despite having better linemates than he has ever had in his career. Not great linemates mind you, but better than he is used to. Still only on pace for 32 points. Desharnais is a whipping boy for a lot of reasons, and while I have defended him at times even I find it hard to overlook his decreasing production. It's not as bad as some would make it out to be, but under 50 points for Desharnais is unacceptable. Malhotra... well, he's been great on faceoffs and the trickle-down effect on the centers has turned the entire team into a faceoff powerhouse, but one point? ONE POINT?? He's tied with Carey Price!!
I had fairly low expectations for Weaver, so I can't say I'm disappointed by him. Which isn't to say I don't like him, because I do. But I recognize that he is (or should be) a 6th - 7th defenseman, and as such he has done his job in my opinion.
D
Gilbert. Only a late surge of modest play saved him from being a fail. He was supposed to be a #3 defenseman, the replacement for Gorges. Hasn't happened.
F
Alexie Emelin. What can I say? He just doesn't look good. He was supposed to battle Gilbert for the #3 ranking and instead he's in danger of losing his spot to Weaver. Gets lost in his own zone, provides little offense or transition game, and doesn't hit anymore. Doesn't bring much of anything anymore.
The rest, including Tokarski, haven't really played enough to get a grade.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jan 13, 2015 16:49:24 GMT -5
Still expecting a lot from this lineup ... from this armchair hack:
MVP: Price
Best D: Subban
Perseverance: Pacioretty
Sportsmanship: Plekanec
Unsung leader: Prust
Most improved: Galchenyuk
Biggest surprise: "Knuckles" Beaulieu/Galchenyuk
Cheers.
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Post by CentreHice on Jan 13, 2015 16:50:33 GMT -5
Good read, BC.
Thanks for taking the time to hammer out the report card.
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Post by Boston_Habs on Jan 14, 2015 16:16:02 GMT -5
Despite the strong record, I don't think the league is "sold" on the Habs yet as legit contenders. Maybe there is too much "Corsi envy" going on out there, but the Habs are routinely on the wrong side of even strength shot attempts. Teams like Tampa, Chicago, and Anaheim are more complete than the Habs in that they are successful at even strength, on the PP, >50% Corsi, and solid goaltending.
The Habs are relying on well above average save percentage to cover up deficiencies in other areas, such as below average Corsi and an awful power play. They are also benefiting from a strong team shooting percentage and combined with our save percentage (combined stat is called PDO) and we are the best PDO team in the East and 2nd overall.
So we are a bit a of a test case for the advanced stats crowd. As BC has said, we shouldn't apologize for having an elite goaltender capable of stealing games. But you worry that the combination of weak possession metrics, a weak power play, and any reversion in shooting or save percentage could really mess things up in the second half of the year.
Meanwhile Therrien is still searching to find the right combination of lines. Funny that things work for a while like the old DD/Pax combo and then the Galchenyuk/Pax combo, but the coaches are searching again for some chemistry.
If you told me at the beginning of the year we would be on pace for 52 wins and 110 points at the midpoint of the season I would be thrilled. I just can't shake the feeling that Therrien STILL hasn't figured out to get the most out of this group. And I don't think it's line combinations. I think it's more basic - the overall approach to the game, reliance on dump outs and dump ins, a weak PP despite two of the best point guys in the league.....I know I should be happy but I feel this team has A LOT of work do and is getting bailed out by Carey Price.
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Post by CentreHice on Jan 14, 2015 16:29:09 GMT -5
I just can't shake the feeling that Therrien STILL hasn't figured out to get the most out of this group. And I don't think it's line combinations. I think it's more basic - the overall approach to the game, reliance on dump outs and dump ins, a weak PP despite two of the best point guys in the league.....I know I should be happy but I feel this team has A LOT of work do and is getting bailed out by Carey Price. That's where I am exactly. MT must not think we have what it takes to dictate a game. Any game. Not even against Buffalo. Otherwise, we'd have a lot more puck possession…or be attempting to do so. Maybe that's what got him booted out of Pittsburgh. Maybe he was preaching dump-chase-grind….while the personnel screamed puck possession. Something changed once Bylsma got there…and I'm thinking that might have been it. In other words….it just may be that no matter what kind of team Therrien has, the players have to conform to his methods. No leeway….no augmenting his approach. Which would explain the treatment of skiiled, puck-possession players like Subban, Sekac, and Galchenyuk. I think a good coach recognizes that certain skilled players, to be their best, are high risk/high reward types. If he has a few of them, he should count himself lucky and surround them with naturally-responsible players. Don't geld your stallions!
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Post by seventeen on Jan 14, 2015 16:36:56 GMT -5
I agree BH. I read a piece of advanced stats that described PDO as a key stat, but one that is almost a 'luck' meter. Too high or too low a PDO and you're likely to regress toward 1.0 which is an average figure. So if your save percentage is .91 (fairly average)and your shooting percentage is .10 (a high one), then you have a PDO of 1.01. That's not 'too' high by any stretch, but you can see the rationale. If your goaltending was saving 95% of shots against (a terrific figure) and your shooting percentage was 12%, the PDO would be 1.07. A team is unlikely to maintain a save percentage of .95 and that shooting percentage is rather high, so it describes that things have gone awfully well, either because some players are having career years, you have the 76/77 Habs roster, or you've been lucky. What's the Habs PDO?
Anyway, it's better to watch with your eyes to see what's going on.
I haven't had a chance to look at our breakout system recently, but from what I've seen of some good teams, they're not afraid to come up the middle. They have the puck low, near the goal and the other d is on the far side, the winger is along the boards, but the center is deeper, near the bottom of the face-off circle. That gives the puck carrier 3 options and it's not uncommon to see them make a short pass to the centre and he and the wingers break out, sometimes along with the dman who had the puck to start with. I like that pattern because it's harder to defend. IF you send two forecheckers, they can cover 2 of the options but not the 3rd. Anyway, I need to see how we break out and how deep we bring our centre.
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Post by Boston_Habs on Jan 14, 2015 16:49:09 GMT -5
The Habs PDO is 102.34, tops in the East and 2nd in the league only to Nashville. The components are Shooting Percentage: 8.99% (3rd in the conference behind TOR and TB) + Save Percentage: 93.35% (1st in the conference, 2nd in the NHL) = 102.34 I'm actually confident we can stay near the top of the conference in save percentage, but I'm somewhat worried about regressing in terms of shooting percentage. Maybe we do a better job than other teams getting into higher percentage scoring positions, but we don't have the productivity of a team like Tampa. Of course this is just one stat, and I don't know how much explanatory power it has, but there is an intuitive appeal to it. The flip side is there is still untapped upside on this team. If we can figure out the PP and figure out how to play more of a possession game, then I think we would be in business and would rely less on Price.
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Post by franko on Jan 14, 2015 16:59:29 GMT -5
I just can't shake the feeling that Therrien STILL hasn't figured out to get the most out of this group. That's where I am exactly. MT must not think we have what it takes to dictate a game. Any game. Not even against Buffalo. Otherwise, we'd have a lot more puck possession…or be attempting to do so. Maybe that's what got him booted out of Pittsburgh. Maybe he was preaching dump-chase-grind….while the personnel screamed puck possession. Something changed once Bylsma got there…and I'm thinking that might have been it. does Bylsma speak French? maybe lightening in a bottle!
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Post by BadCompany on Jan 15, 2015 8:01:00 GMT -5
I'm actually confident we can stay near the top of the conference in save percentage, but I'm somewhat worried about regressing in terms of shooting percentage. Maybe we do a better job than other teams getting into higher percentage scoring positions, but we don't have the productivity of a team like Tampa. I was thinking about this, and just to throw a little more confusion into the mix I wondered what the career averages of our shooters was. That would sort of be indicative of whether or not they were going to regress to the mean, no? If a guy normally scores on 10% of the shots he takes, but was scoring on 20% this year, then yes an argument could be made that his "luck" will run out and he'll regress back to 10%. But if he normally scores on 20% of his shots then I don't think you can assume he will regress. So looking at the numbers then: Overall TeamThis year: 9.44% Last year: 8.97% Two years ago: 9.95% Not much difference there. We seem to have different sources though. Pacioretty: This year: 13.1% Career: 11.4% Above average for where he normally is, but is it significant? Last year he was at 14.4%. GalchenyukThis year: 11.9% Career: 11.7% Small sample size though. SubbanThis year: 11.5% Career: 6.3% A way better shooting percentage this year, BUT he has taken a LOT less shots. He's averaging about 1.86 shots per game this season, whereas last year he averaged close to 2.5. What does that mean? PlekanecThis year: 8.9% Career: 10.7% He's the opposite of Subban; his percentage is lower, but he's shooting a lot more. GallagherThis year: 9.4% Career: 10.1% Slightly below his average, but probably not significantly so. MarkovThis year: 7.6% Career: 7.7% Mister consistency. DesharnaisThis year: 12.2% Career: 15.3% Well below his average. EllerThis year: 11.3% Career: 10.4% Somewhat above average. ParenteauThis year: 8.3% Career: 12.0% Well below. WeiseThis year: 10.6% Career: 10.0% About the same. No other player had more than 2 goals (except Sekac) so I didn't bother looking at them.
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Post by Skilly on Jan 15, 2015 8:49:37 GMT -5
Every stat has its weakness (except for goals ... who cares how they go in as long as they go in)
But the one thing that jump out at me when looking at the above percentage stats is "Subban takes a lot less shots"? I can't say that I agree with that, it just doesn't meet the "eye test". He sure looks like he is taking alot of shots to me. He is hitting the net a lot less, now that may be more accurate.
The NHL doesn't keep a running total of the shot attempts. They count shots (S), missed shots (MS), and on the individual game sheets they track shots blocked (A/B) but they don't track that as a cumulative amount. I may be way off base here, and nhl.com wont let me get into the reports this morning. But I would guess that Subban is shooting just as much as ever, just hitting the net less.
I will have to check on the stats. Anyone know a good site where they track the total Fenwick shots. I found sites where they track 5 on 5, but havent found a decent one yet where they list the total cummulative shots, missed shots, shot attempts blocked.
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