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Post by JacquesInFL on Nov 14, 2002 8:53:21 GMT -5
For those interested, here are some numbers for Habs forwards. Season is still relatively early (15 games) but trends regarding ice time and productivity are emerging (English abbreviations mostly obvious and EV=even strength, so EV Min/Point says how much ice time it takes one of our heroes to notch an even strength point). -- What do you see, friends?
KOIVU: 15GP, 4G, 8A, 12Pts, +2, 18:47 Min/Gm, 27 Shots, 57:41 PP Min, 0PPG, 3PPA, 11:37 PK Min, 212:20 EV Min, 9 EV Pts, 23:35 EV Min/Point
ZEDNIK: 14GP, 8G, 2A, 10Pts, E, 18:33 Min/Gm, 46 Shots, 41:49 PP Min, 2PPG, 0PPA, 7:15 PK Min, 210:43 EV Min, 8 EV Pts, 26:18 EV Min/Point
MCKAY: 13GP, 2G, 4A, 6Pts, +2, 13:18 Min/Gm, 16 Shots, 28:59 PP Min, 1PPG, 0PPA, 22:07 PK Min, 122:50 EV Min, 5 EV Pts, 24:28 EV Min/Point
GILMOUR: 14GP, 1G, 4A, 5Pts, -1, 15:53 Min/Gm, 15 Shots, 48:36 PP Min, 0PPG, 2PPA, 1:33 PK Min, 172:11 EV Min, 3 EV Pts, 57:21 EV Min/Point
PETROV: 15GP, 4G, 4A, 8Pts, -1, 14:25 Min/Gm, 22 Shots, 35:09 PP Min, 2PPG, 0PPA, 1:12 PK Min, 179:46 EV Min, 6 EV Pts, 29:53 EV Min/Point
CZERK: 14GP, 2G, 7A, 9Pts, E, 13:32 Min/Gm, 21 Shots, 15:55 PP Min, 0PPG, 1PPA, 2:55 PK Min, 170:26 EV Min, 8 EV Pts, 21:17 EV Min/Point
PERREAULT: 15GP, 6G, 6A, 12Pts, E, 16:11 Min/Gm, 25 Shots, 58:22 PP Min, 4PPG, 1PPA, 0:26 PK Min, 184:00 EV Min, 7 EV Pts, 26:17 EV Min/Point
AUDETTE: 11GP, 0G, 0A, 0Pts, -6, 14:04 Min/Gm, 16 Shots, 47:47 PP Min, 0PPG, 0PPA, 0:00 PK Min, 106:54 EV Min, 0 EV Pts, n/a EV Min/Point
KILGER: 11GP, 0G, 2A, 2Pts, -1, 9:02 Min/Gm, 12 Shots, 0:48 PP Min, 0PPG, 0PPA, 21:18 PK Min, 77:16 EV Min, 2 EV Pts, 38:31 EV Min/Point
JUNEAU: 15GP, 2G, 3A, 5Pts, E, 17:57 Min/Gm, 14 Shots, 11:21 PP Min, 0PPG, 0PPA, 66:06 PK Min, 191:46 EV Min, 5 EV Pts, 38:15 EV Min/Point
BULIS: 15GP, 3G, 4A, 7Pts, +2, 12:58 Min/Gm, 27 Shots, 2:45 PP Min, 0PPG, 0PPA, 31:08 PK Min, 160:46 EV Min, 7 EV Pts, 22:54 EV Min/Point
DACKELL: 15GP, 2G, 5A, 7Pts, +1, 15:45 Min/Gm, 13 Shots, 4:55 PP Min, 0PPG, 0PPA, 58:11 PK Min, 173:11 EV Min, 7 EV Pts, 24:44 EV Min/Point
LINDSAY: 10GP, 0G, 1A, 1Pts, +1, 5:20 Min/Gm, 4 Shots, 0:25 PP Min, 0PPG, 0PPA, 0:46 PK Min, 52:13 EV Min, 1 EV Pts, 52:13 EV Min/Point
BLOUIN: 3GP, 0G, 0A, 0Pts, E, 3:52 Min/Gm, 0 Shots, 0:00 PP Min, 0PPG, 0PPA, 0:00 PK Min, 8:35 EV Min, 0 EV Pts, n/a EV Min/Point
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Post by JacquesInFL on Nov 14, 2002 10:08:04 GMT -5
I see a few positives and negatives inside the numbers. A few things to ponder...
1. The Audette Is Not Getting Quality Minutes Myth: That’s just not true. He has had more Min/Gm than other, far more productive players. And it almost defies logic how he’s soaked up almost 50 minutes of PP ice and not managed one tiny little point. It’s not like he’s been too busy playing good defense, hits and wins loose pucks.
2. Bulis and Dackell: these defensive specialists are producing offensive numbers. Let’s take Jan as the working example since he’s much younger, faster & bigger. Bulis is second on the club in even strength productivity; he scores a point every 22:54. Plus, he is tied for second in shots among the forwards, and he’s doing that with no PP time and a defense-first line assignment. Doesn’t the club need SOG? Bottom line: MThead would be well advised to keep Bulis on the ice instead of finding him an undeserved home on the fourth line.
3. Czerk: he can be invisible for long stretches on the ice, but he has been producing. I'm not so sure it's a smart idea (when has that ever stopped MT before) to break up the 1st and 3rd lines because that's basically all we've had going right in terms of even strength chemistry and productivity.
4. Divine Right of PP Minutes: Thus far, Habs “fire it low” strategy on the PP is not producing the results (about 20th in NHL) we want from a team stocked full of PP specialists. Why is Zednik seeing the ice less than Audette and Gilmour – two guys that struggle mightily to win pucks? And, when exactly does the staff pull the plug on some of these guys’ entitlement to prime minutes – after 25 games, 40? And, last, does MT have the guts to do it?
5. The PK: It sure has been bad. And the curious thing is that JJ, AD, and last season’s d-pairs have been on the ice for most of the bloodletting. Could it be Carbo’s film sessions and expertise are missed?
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Post by HabBoy on Nov 14, 2002 10:25:19 GMT -5
Bulis should be on the first or second line, period. He has the speed and finesse of Zeddy and the shot of Perreault ;D The biggest disapointment, our top scorer is not even in the TOP 50 in NHL scoring....truly sad
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Post by MPLABBE on Nov 14, 2002 10:34:21 GMT -5
Thanks for digging that up Jacques. Some truly disturbing signs in there that made my jaw dropped. You talked about them.
How Audette and Gilmour get more PP time than our best goal scorer is a joke..
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Post by The New Guy on Nov 14, 2002 11:21:39 GMT -5
Thoughts and comments:
- The first thing I questioned was was why Perrault, Audette, Gilmour and Koivu were pulling down approximatly the same PP time (Perrault leading Koivu by about a minute, Audette trailing by about ten minutes - bu remember he was benched for a handful of games)
When you break it down Audette gets about 4.36 PP minutes per game, Gilmour comes in at 3.42, 3.86 and Koivu at 3.8. These numbers are simply ridiculous. Perrault and Koivu are top producers (though Koivu has yet to score a point on the PP).
Then it hit me. Koivu also plays a big role on the PK unit. Perrault has logged more even strength minutes than everyone except Juneau, Koivu and Zednik. Gilmour plays big even strength minutes, but has played a minute and a half of PK thus far. Audette hasn't been iced during the PK. I'm guessing Therrien's logic here is that Audette and Gilmour are offensive enough to take the PP while Koivu and Perrault and the others get a spell.
Zednick, however, should be on that first PP unit. Who's the primary LW?
- A lot of people are calling for Bulis to be bumped up to another line because of his improved stats, but I say leave him where he is. While he's not getting the massive amounts of ice time that he probably should be getting. Where he is now he gets loads of PK minutes (second only to Juneau and Dackell) and he plays with some of the more productive members of our team. His role right now is to harass the opponents top line with the his talented linemates and they play that role to perfection. If anything, maybe Juneau's line should get more ice time - but then arguably they're not going to be ready to play the PK when it comes around.
- Players with a positive plus minus: Koivu, McKay, Bulis, Dackell and Lindsey Players with a negative plus minus: Gilmour, Petrov, Audette Team leader +/-: Koivu and McKay (tied at +2) Team worst +/-: Audette (-6 already)
Gives you some idea of who are better players are. McKay might not be scoring a whole lot of points, but he's sure doing something right on the ice. Koivu is the talented team leader - no surprise to see him in the plus column. Audette is sucking hind-tit... and he's getting big time PP minutes! Maybe someone should arrange it so that he doesn't play against the main scoring lines so often.
Just some thoughts - there may be more later when I finish class.
Later,
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Post by Viper on Nov 14, 2002 11:38:12 GMT -5
Thanks for digging that up Jacques. Some truly disturbing signs in there that made my jaw dropped. You talked about them. How Audette and Gilmour get more PP time than our best goal scorer is a joke.. How can you think this MP Would you expect anything less from MT And why doesn't AS kick MT's a double hockey stick for such consistently insane desicion's
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Post by MPLABBE on Nov 14, 2002 11:45:55 GMT -5
*sigh*...seems to me most coaches just leave their lines together and only change them when there is an injury..
why don't we do the same? MT should say to his team...Here's our lineup. Get used to them(new linemates) cuz' I am staying with this for the next 20 games if not more.
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Post by Viper on Nov 14, 2002 11:49:15 GMT -5
The good Bulis has found a role and has finally shown some consistency. Im on the bulis wagon (as if it hasn't been obvious thus far) i want to see more responsibility for him on the PP he's bound to do more than audette who is a team leader in PP time and also a team Donut leader as well. The only thing that would be a concern of course is i wouldn't want it to affect the PK as the new guy mentioned. the bad MP mentioned it. The ugly ummm do i have to point out the obvious with 48 minutes of powerplay time why the hell are we continuing to suffer through audette out there.
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Post by JacquesInFL on Nov 14, 2002 14:07:32 GMT -5
TNG, I mostly agree with your perspective on who's doing what and the good & bad of it all. But, on the Audette point, I think MT has basically keept the Donald away from the opposition's scoring lines. Juneau's line has pulled much weight there. My concern with putting Audette on the first line comes down to this: Zed & Koivu could more benefit from a bigger body who wins pucks, and has the strong legs & lungs to play two-way game because Saku's line tends to stay on for long shifts (like the one Malholtra scored on).
A couple of other things I did not fully notice before:
1) Gilmour has been shockingly unproductive even strength. i mean, he gets big mintues and he's a racking a point every 57:21 (actually, worse if you ignore the empty netter against the Kings). The man was in camp this year...what gives? Sure, we take the perspective he comes through in the spring, but it could well be that the points we fail to seize before then make the difference between making or missing the playoffs.
2) MT should have a mandate from Savard to play the guys that shoot, guys that can create time and space to actually shoot the damn puck. One of things I like about Bulis' game this season has been the determination to fire that heavy shot. Many of his shots produce rebounds -- I remember Brisebois scoring against Lalime and Dackell off of Belfore because Jan's shots often produce rebounds. And Saku blasted one off Tugnut and Zed pounced on it. This is basic stuff, right?
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Post by JohnnyVerdun on Nov 14, 2002 14:46:44 GMT -5
I'm down with that, Jacques. 100%.
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Post by 24andcounting on Nov 14, 2002 15:40:30 GMT -5
Nice work Jacques...this is a really interesting breakdown. I'm at work sneaking peaks in between this rather boring budget work.
I'm happy to see the production of Koivu and Perrault at this point. It still amazes me that Perrault actually even catches up to the play -- managing to score on top of that blows my mind.
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Post by MPLABBE on Nov 14, 2002 15:43:13 GMT -5
Perreault Probably has the best hands/with bad speed combo in the league
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Post by JacquesInFL on Nov 14, 2002 19:21:13 GMT -5
One more statistic to think about (faceoffs):
Koivu 108FW, 144FL, 42.8% Zednik 0FW, 1FL, 0.0% McKay 0FW, 1FL, 0.0% Gilmour 49FW, 74FL, 39.8% Petrov 1FW, 2FL, 33.3% Czerk 0FW, 1FL, 0.0% Perreault 157FW, 101FL, 60.9% Audette n/a Kilger 23FW, 25FL, 47.9% Juneau 118FW, 124FL, 48.8% Bulis 24FW, 25FL, 49% Dackell 4FW, 9FL, 30.8% Lindsay 5FW, 10FL, 33.3% Blouin n/a
So does the newest mutation of Hi Ho Silver mean we have to see Gilmour take a lot faceoffs this weekend? Marc, as for what I see the rumoured lines for tomorrow, I'm not quite sure what MT is aiming for. Is Gilmour flanked by Juneau and McKay truly the checking line? What was the problem with Bulis-Juneau-Dackell? Or is it time to relinquish quality centre minutes to Killer because that is where he wants to play? How can the club excel over the long haul with Audette, Czerk & Petrov filling three of the top six forwards? Questions...questions...I suppose Patty Burns feels ok about the 60 minutes of hell MThead is threatening to roll at the Devils.
I think I need a cold Moosehead...
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Post by MPLABBE on Nov 14, 2002 19:32:26 GMT -5
So does the newest mutation of Hi Ho Silver mean we have to see Gilmour take a lot faceoffs this weekend? Marc, as for what I see the rumoured lines for tomorrow, I'm not quite sure what MT is aiming for. Is Gilmour flanked by Juneau and McKay truly the checking line? What was the problem with Bulis-Juneau-Dackell? Or is it time to relinquish quality centre minutes to Killer because that is where he wants to play? How can the club excel over the long haul with Audette, Czerk & Petrov filling three of the top six forwards? everything must all come together in MT's mind and quite frankly he's probably the only one who understands it...I am sure Charron and Jodoin must wonder WTH is happening with MT sometimes..
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Post by BadCompany on Nov 14, 2002 19:43:30 GMT -5
Excellent work, Jacques. Can I use these stats to win my debate with montreal? Can I? Huh? Huh?? Bulis plays well, gets demoted. Veteran players don't play well, get what they want (Dougie at center, Audette on the 1st line). *sigh*
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Post by Doc Holliday on Nov 14, 2002 21:50:39 GMT -5
One thing that strikes me is that Koivu's stats compare to Perreault but with less goals and a below 50 faceoff %... Yet everybody has this impression that Yannic is ordinary and Koivu is extraordinary...
Do Montreal fans severely overrate Saku Koivu the hockey player???
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Post by MPLABBE on Nov 14, 2002 21:54:11 GMT -5
don't open that can of worms....
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Post by HFTO on Nov 14, 2002 22:26:15 GMT -5
If Czerkawski expects to return to the 30-35 goal plateau he is going to have to shoot the puck alot more 1.5 shots a game won't get him there by a long shot. HFTO
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Post by The New Guy on Nov 14, 2002 22:39:52 GMT -5
No. Not at all. Because Koivu and Perrault are totally different players. When Koivu plays he plays a high octane game. Despite his small stature he zips around the ice like a madman on skates, and is not even remotely afraid of of digging for the puck. He creates open ice, sees the ice with amazing clarity. He create openings
Perrault is a different type of player. He doesn't forecheck, he doesn't backcheck, he doesn't moter around the ice. What he does do is take advantage of what's given to him. He has a good wrist shot, and has the ability to be where the puck is going to be.
Even more so - look at the PK stats. Perrault has run up all of 26 seconds of PK time. Koivu plays on a regular (for whatever that word means for Les Gars) PK unit. That's the key. Not only does Koivu make ice offensively and create situations where guys like Perrault can score, but he plays defence to boot.
Is Koivu the second coming of God (also known as M. Richard)? No. But he's a damn fine player and a superstar in any city in the NHL.
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Post by PTH on Nov 14, 2002 23:43:26 GMT -5
No. Not at all. Because Koivu and Perrault are totally different players. When Koivu plays he plays a high octane game. Despite his small stature he zips around the ice like a madman on skates, and is not even remotely afraid of of digging for the puck. He creates open ice, sees the ice with amazing clarity. He create openings Perrault is a different type of player. He doesn't forecheck, he doesn't backcheck, he doesn't moter around the ice. What he does do is take advantage of what's given to him. He has a good wrist shot, and has the ability to be where the puck is going to be. Even more so - look at the PK stats. Perrault has run up all of 26 seconds of PK time. Koivu plays on a regular (for whatever that word means for Les Gars) PK unit. That's the key. Not only does Koivu make ice offensively and create situations where guys like Perrault can score, but he plays defence to boot. Is Koivu the second coming of God (also known as M. Richard)? No. But he's a damn fine player and a superstar in any city in the NHL. Couldn't have said it better myself. Koivu creates, Perreault just goes with the flow. I think Koivu might be slightly overrated because of his size and effort, and Perreault is underestimated because he tends to be invisible. But one is clearly a top-line player, the other can be a top-line fill-in, no more.
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Post by Doc Holliday on Nov 15, 2002 8:26:06 GMT -5
Couldn't have said it better myself. Koivu creates, Perreault just goes with the flow. I think Koivu might be slightly overrated because of his size and effort, and Perreault is underestimated because he tends to be invisible. But one is clearly a top-line player, the other can be a top-line fill-in, no more. I fully agree with you and TNG. Yannic and Koivu are not the same player at all and Koivu is all guts and courage. but that was not the question... Looking at the stats, my question is can Koivu be a top 25 player in this league like a Sundin, Thornton, Naslund or Weight? Or is he more in a Mike Peca category, be it good second liner with tons of character and leadership but a little stretched on a first line?
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Post by HFTO on Nov 15, 2002 16:44:56 GMT -5
Doc I think your on the right track here I think Saku ideally is a number 1B or 2 centre. If the habs had a stud centre we would be in a great postion with Perreault at 3 and lets say Kilger at #4. HFTO
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Post by JacquesInFL on Nov 15, 2002 17:23:28 GMT -5
I think Saku is a legitimate #1 centre but he's not the total package. One thing that would help is improving on faceoffs. Winning in the 40% range is bad news for a small centre and RWers who cannot play defense or skate fast. It's like skating uphill, often thirty seconds per shift spent chasing to get the puck and then Saku going into corners is downright pivotal in the offensive zone as well.
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Post by MPLABBE on Nov 15, 2002 17:34:38 GMT -5
Saku is a number 1 center if he has good wingers. We have the guy on the left side, now we need to find a good RW for him.
We also need a big center to back him up in the 2 slot.
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Post by Doc Holliday on Nov 16, 2002 14:26:36 GMT -5
Saku is a number 1 center if he has good wingers. We have the guy on the left side, now we need to find a good RW for him. We also need a big center to back him up in the 2 slot. ...that's my point MP. Great #1 center make their wingers better, not the other way around. Sundin turned Hoglund into a 30 goals sniper... I think Saku is a great player but our second scoring line need to be really really good if the first line depends on him... As HFTO says we have to think 1A, 1B.
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Post by MPLABBE on Nov 16, 2002 14:36:45 GMT -5
Well, Koivu made Brian Savage look like a good goal scorer and is helping Zednik turn into a great one....
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Post by PTH on Nov 16, 2002 19:03:21 GMT -5
...that's my point MP. Great #1 center make their wingers better, not the other way around. Sundin turned Hoglund into a 30 goals sniper... I think Saku is a great player but our second scoring line need to be really really good if the first line depends on him... As HFTO says we have to think 1A, 1B. The way I see it, you can be a #1 center without being "elite", which is where I would put Saku - a top-line player but not one of the special few who make their linemates far better players. Would Bertuzzi, Naslund or Weight produce with a couple of spare parts on their wing ? I doubt it. But I do agree that we need a solid 2nd line, which seems to be tough to get. After Saku-Zed as a pair that clearly belongs on the top 2 lines (honourable mention to Perreault though), we have a plethora of players who might deserve to be there, but haven't done much to show they belong there. Gilmour, Czerkawski, Audette, Petrov need to wake up...
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