Global Wars Declining, Dramatic Decrease in Africa
Jan 9, 2007 22:43:53 GMT -5
Post by MC Habber on Jan 9, 2007 22:43:53 GMT -5
NEW REPORT ON POLITICAL VIOLENCE FINDS GLOBAL WARS STILL DECLINING--WITH DRAMATIC DECREASE IN AFRICA.
VANCOUVER, December 21, 2006Notwithstanding the escalating violence in Iraq and the widening war in Darfur, the Human Security Brief 2006 (www.humansecuritybrief.info), a new report from the Human Security Centre at the University of British Columbia, reveals that, from the beginning of 2002 to the end of 2005, the number of wars being fought around the world dropped significantly. By far the greatest decline was in sub–Saharan Africa.
The post–Cold War decline in armed conflicts reported in last year’s Human Security Report 2005 (www.humansecurityreport.info) has continued, says the new study. The 2005 Report argued that the decline could be attributed in large part to an upsurge in international activism, spearheaded by the UN, that sought to stop ongoing wars, help negotiate peace settlements, support post–conflict reconstruction, and prevent old wars from starting again.
The findings presented in the Brief suggest that these efforts are continuing to have an impact.
“Governments and international agencies are increasingly demanding that security policies be ‘evidence–based’”, notes Human Security Centre Director, Andrew Mack. “The Brief and projects like it, help provide the data and analysis needed to bring this aspiration closer to reality.”
KEY FINDINGS
* Notwithstanding the escalating violence in Iraq and the widening war in Darfur, the new data indicate that from the beginning of 2002 to the end of 2005, the number of armed conflicts being waged around the world shrank 15%––from 66 to 56. By far the greatest decline was in Sub–Saharan Africa.
* Estimated battle-death tolls declined worldwide by almost 40% over the same period. Battle–death statistics are prone to considerable error, however, so these findings should be treated with appropriate caution.
* The steep post–Cold War decline in campaigns of genocide and other mass slaughters of civilians has continued. In 2005, there was just one ongoing genocide––in Darfur. In 1989, there were 10.
* Growing numbers of wars are ending in negotiated settlements instead of being fought to the bitter end––a trend that reflects the increased commitment of the international community to peacemaking.
* The estimated number of displaced people around the world––refugees and internally displaced persons––fell from 34.2 to 32.1 million between 2003 and 2005, a net decline of 6%.
* The number of military coups and attempted coups fell from 10 in 2004 to just 3 in 2005, continuing an uneven decline from the 1963 high point of 25.
But other trends were far from positive:
* In four regions of the world the number of armed conflicts increased between 2002 and 2005.
* International terrorist incidents increased threefold worldwide between 2000 and 2005, with an even greater increase in fatalities.
* The number of campaigns of organized violence waged against civilians each year increased by 56% between 1989 and 2005.
* The fact that more wars now end in negotiated settlements than in victories is encouraging news for peacemakers. But wars that end through negotiation have a downside. They last three times longer than those that end in victories and are nearly twice as likely to re-start within five years.
Analysis
VANCOUVER, December 21, 2006Notwithstanding the escalating violence in Iraq and the widening war in Darfur, the Human Security Brief 2006 (www.humansecuritybrief.info), a new report from the Human Security Centre at the University of British Columbia, reveals that, from the beginning of 2002 to the end of 2005, the number of wars being fought around the world dropped significantly. By far the greatest decline was in sub–Saharan Africa.
The post–Cold War decline in armed conflicts reported in last year’s Human Security Report 2005 (www.humansecurityreport.info) has continued, says the new study. The 2005 Report argued that the decline could be attributed in large part to an upsurge in international activism, spearheaded by the UN, that sought to stop ongoing wars, help negotiate peace settlements, support post–conflict reconstruction, and prevent old wars from starting again.
The findings presented in the Brief suggest that these efforts are continuing to have an impact.
“Governments and international agencies are increasingly demanding that security policies be ‘evidence–based’”, notes Human Security Centre Director, Andrew Mack. “The Brief and projects like it, help provide the data and analysis needed to bring this aspiration closer to reality.”
KEY FINDINGS
* Notwithstanding the escalating violence in Iraq and the widening war in Darfur, the new data indicate that from the beginning of 2002 to the end of 2005, the number of armed conflicts being waged around the world shrank 15%––from 66 to 56. By far the greatest decline was in Sub–Saharan Africa.
* Estimated battle-death tolls declined worldwide by almost 40% over the same period. Battle–death statistics are prone to considerable error, however, so these findings should be treated with appropriate caution.
* The steep post–Cold War decline in campaigns of genocide and other mass slaughters of civilians has continued. In 2005, there was just one ongoing genocide––in Darfur. In 1989, there were 10.
* Growing numbers of wars are ending in negotiated settlements instead of being fought to the bitter end––a trend that reflects the increased commitment of the international community to peacemaking.
* The estimated number of displaced people around the world––refugees and internally displaced persons––fell from 34.2 to 32.1 million between 2003 and 2005, a net decline of 6%.
* The number of military coups and attempted coups fell from 10 in 2004 to just 3 in 2005, continuing an uneven decline from the 1963 high point of 25.
But other trends were far from positive:
* In four regions of the world the number of armed conflicts increased between 2002 and 2005.
* International terrorist incidents increased threefold worldwide between 2000 and 2005, with an even greater increase in fatalities.
* The number of campaigns of organized violence waged against civilians each year increased by 56% between 1989 and 2005.
* The fact that more wars now end in negotiated settlements than in victories is encouraging news for peacemakers. But wars that end through negotiation have a downside. They last three times longer than those that end in victories and are nearly twice as likely to re-start within five years.
Analysis