And so it begins - Iran

[Disgruntled70sHab]

Be interesting to see where this goes.

Russia delivers nuclear fuel to Iran[/size]

MOSCOW, Russia (CNN) -- Russia said Monday it has begun fuel deliveries to an atomic power station in Iran that has been at the center of international concerns over Tehran's nuclear program.

Atomstroiexport, Russia's nuclear power equipment and service export monopoly, completed the first stage of deliveries Sunday, Russian nuclear officials said.

The Russian monopoly is building the $1-billion Bushehr plant under the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The Russian foreign ministry and nuclear officials said the fuel delivery was under full IAEA safeguards.

Construction on the Russian-designed nuclear plant has continued despite pressure from the United States.

Iran denies its nuclear program is intended for anything but peaceful purposes.

A statement on the Russian Foreign Ministry's official Web site Monday said the Iranian side has provided additional written guarantees that the fuel can only be used at and for the Bushehr plant, and that the spent fuel will be returned to Russia for utilization and storage.

"The nuclear fuel is being delivered to Iran about six months ahead of the time when it will be actually used for producing energy, as stipulated by technical requirements," the statement read.

The fuel deliveries will be made in several stages over two months, Russian nuclear officials said. The first stage was completed Sunday, officials said, when IAEA-certified fuel containers were delivered to a special storage facility, inspected by the IAEA, at the plant.

Moscow's direct support forIran's nuclear program has aggravated tensions between the United States and Russia.

The U.N. The Security Council has repeatedly demanded that Iran suspend enrichment of uranium and has imposed limited sanctions on Tehran for refusing to comply. Russia, France, and China -- all permanent Security Council members -- have voiced concerns about the proposed sanctions.

A recent U.S. intelligence summary concluded that, contrary to earlier suspicions, Iran halted its nuclear weapons development in 2003.

The report said Iran stopped work toward a nuclear weapon while under international scrutiny in 2003 and is unlikely to be able to produce enough enriched uranium for a bomb until 2010 to 2015.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad hailed the report and declared that Iran is a "peaceful nuclear country."

Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Russia wants to settle the situation.

"Certainly, we are interested in having all issues surrounding Iran's nuclear program finally settled as early as possible," he said in Moscow after talks with his Iranian counterpart, Manouchehr Mottaki.

This is possible "solely on the basis of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, IAEA rules and principles, and certainly, with Iran proving its right to a peaceful use of nuclear energy," Lavrov said.

Lavrov said there had been some progress in the talks between Iran and the IAEA.

"We encourage further advancement which will allow us to finally take this issue off the international agenda," Lavrov said.

Construction of the plant was expected to be completed in September, Interfax said, but was delayed because of lack of financing and delayed equipment deliveries from other countries.[/i]

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[MC Habber]

disgruntled70shab said:

A recent U.S. intelligence summary concluded that, contrary to earlier suspicions, Iran halted its nuclear weapons development in 2003.

The report said Iran stopped work toward a nuclear weapon while under international scrutiny in 2003 and is unlikely to be able to produce enough enriched uranium for a bomb until 2010 to 2015.

That was the consensus view of all 16 US intelligence agencies. That the Bush Admin tries to minimize that conclusion and continues to sound the war drums makes it pretty clear they have other motives.

The more I think about this, the more hypocritical the US position appears. In the end, they aren't concerned about any threat to the safety of the world -- they have no problem with US allies having "secret" nuclear weapons, no matter how ruthless and aggressive those allies are (Israel), they just don't want Iran to have the diplomatic leverage afforded by them. In the end, Iran has exactly as much (or as little) right to nuclear weapons as any other country. That Israel has a "more democratic" government doesn't really make me feel any better about their possessing nuclear weapons. You only have to look at the general disatissfaction with the governments of both Canada and the US to see how little protection so-called democracy provides.

Given the instability in Pakistan, you would think their (actual) nuclear arsenal would be much more worrying than Iran's (so far imaginary) one. MAD applies just as much to Iran as to any other country, the far greater danger IMO is from rogue extremists in Pakistan.

[Disgruntled70sHab]

Man, there are some good writers out there.

15 November 2007

Iran: The Irrelevance of Evidence

By Gwynne Dyer

Shaul Mofaz, the Israeli defence minister, is not a fan of Mohammed ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. In fact, he wants him fired. "The policies followed by ElBaradei endanger world peace. His irresponsible attitude of sticking his head in the sand over Iran's nuclear programme should lead to his impeachment," Mofaz said during a visit to Washington in early November.

Mofaz was getting his retaliation in first. As he foresaw, the IAEA director's report on Iran's uranium enrichment programme, released on 14 November, said that Tehran was years away from an ability to make nuclear weapons.

Not only that, but he said that Iran is complying with a work plan agreed with the IAEA last August to clear up the remaining questions about a project that the Iranians insist was only ever about making fuel for civilian nuclear power stations. How can you bomb a country, or even impose serious sanctions on it, if the head of the IAEA won't accuse it of seeking nuclear weapons?

Well, you can if you really want to. It was the same Mohammed ElBaradei who reported to the United Nations Security Council on 14 February, 2003 that "We have, to date, found no evidence of ongoing prohibited nuclear or nuclear-related activities in Iraq." The United States and Britain insisted that their intelligence said otherwise, Iraq
was duly invaded, and nobody even apologised when no "prohibited nuclear or nuclear-related activities" were found.

ElBaradei must feel a strong sense of deja vu as his reports on Iran four years later get the same treatment in the major Western countries. French Defence Minister Herve Morin responded that "Our information, which is backed up by other countries, is contrary [to Mr ElBaradei's comments]" -- as if Western intelligence agencies had a strong record in this field.

For the simple-minded, White House spokesperson Dana Perino offered an even clearer proof of Iran's wickedness. Iran, she said, is "enriching and reprocessing uranium, and the reason that one does that is to lead towards a nuclear weapon." Case closed.

Apart from the eight nuclear weapons powers (the US, Britain, France, Russia, China, India, Pakistan and Israel), four other countries already have plants on their territory for "enriching and reprocessing uranium" under IAEA safeguards: Japan, Germany, the Netherlands and Brazil. Argentina, Australia and South Africa are also building or actively
considering uranium enrichment facilities, again under IAEA safeguards. So there was some rapid back-pedalling at the White House when a journalist inquired if all these countries are also seeking nuclear weapons.

US National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe was wheeled out to "clarify" Dana Perino's statement. "Each country is different, but obviously Dana was asked and was talking about Iran." he explained. In other words, the real proof that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons lies in the fact that we know in our hearts that it is evil.

It really is as simple as that. Iran's goal by its own account is precisely the same as that of Argentina, Australia or South Africa: to acquire the ability to enrich uranium for nuclear power generation under full IAEA safeguards. This is perfectly legal, and indeed is the "inalienable right" of every signatory under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (which Iran has signed).

The problem is that this same ability to enrich uranium for nuclear power generation also confers the ability to enrich it much more for use in nuclear weapons. So long as the IAEA safeguards are in place that won't happen, but if a country later quits the NPT and expels the IAEA (as North Korea did in 2003), it doesn't take long to start making bombs. It's really a question of trust. Nobody thinks Argentina will do that; lots of people fear that Iran would.

Suspicions of Iran are even greater because much of its early work on uranium enrichment was done secretly with equipment bought on the black market. There is a plausible explanation for this -- ever since the revolution of 1979, a US-led boycott has made it almost impossible for Iran to buy nuclear technology legally -- but it doesn't help Tehran's credibility now.

All ElBaradei can do is to assess whether Iran is obeying international law, but that is of little interest to Israel and the Western governments that are convinced, rightly or wrongly, that Iran's ultimate goal is nuclear weapons.

That is why the issue was taken away from the IAEA two years ago and transferred to the UN Security Council, where the Western great powers can simply declare that Iran is a threat to the peace and impose sanctions on it -- if they can get the Russians and the Chinese to go along with them.

Moscow and Beijing have complied on two occasions, but they seem unlikely to assent to the harsher sanctions that the US is now seeking. In which case the next step for the United States -- "all the options are on the table" -- may be a unilateral attack on Iran. Most Iranians don't believe that even the Bush administration could be that foolish, but recent history is not on their side.

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Mind you, I still think Israel has reason to feel insecure with Iranian nuclear ambitions.

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

Just because you buy dynamite, timers and fuses doesn't mean you are making a bomb. They could be getting ready to open a ski resort and are getting ready to control avalanches?
They could be building atomic clocks or devising new punishments for women that have been raped.
Give the nice people the benefit of the doubt.