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Post by Cranky on Nov 23, 2008 18:36:14 GMT -5
From a scale of 1 to 8, how concerned are you about he economy and where do you think we are headed?
So as not to skewer the direction of the poll, I will post my opinions later.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Nov 23, 2008 18:58:18 GMT -5
I really don't know how long or to what extent this will last but I'm very concerned. Our financial company is holding a seminar on what to do in order to take advantage of this meltdown. If I get the information I'll try to post some of it here.
Cheers.
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Post by CrocRob on Nov 24, 2008 0:30:22 GMT -5
The question as to how concerned I am is very. The poll question seems to be a matter of prediction. Whoever thinks they can answer that, well I'd like the lotter numbers.
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Post by Cranky on Nov 24, 2008 0:51:34 GMT -5
The question as to how concerned I am is very. The poll question seems to be a matter of prediction. Whoever thinks they can answer that, well I'd like the lotter numbers. Huh? How concerned are you? You say "very concerned". Fine. Where do you think we are headed? Recession? deep recession? Depression? Or is this just a two, three month downturm? (I posted this on three forums. I didn't start off with my opinion so as not to bias the poll. Just for the record, I think we are heading for a five andten.....wll explain later.) |
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Post by CrocRob on Nov 24, 2008 0:57:41 GMT -5
The question as to how concerned I am is very. The poll question seems to be a matter of prediction. Whoever thinks they can answer that, well I'd like the lotter numbers. Huh? How concerned are you? You say "very concerned". Fine. Where do you think we are headed? Recession? deep recession? Depression? Or is this just a two, three month downturm? (I posted this on three forums. I didn't start off with my opinion so as not to bias the poll. Just for the record, I think we are heading for a five andten.....wll explain later.) Wasn't intended to be criticism. I just wasn't sure of what the question was. The poll literally reads "how concerned are you?" with a series of answers that don't answer that question. I'm not going to vote in the poll, because I'm certainly not qualified enough to answer the implied question, "how do you think this situation will unfold in brevity and gravity?" The effects of the current economic situation will be lasting, not the least of which will be actually unravelling everything and letting everyone know how much money they've lost. We've barely seen the start of that. But as to how consumers will react to that news, and how long, is something I don't know, and couldn't even hazard a guess other than saying it'll be longer than 1 year. Also, I'd bet that few people (myself included) would be able to distinguish a medium recession from a deep one. It's just a difficult poll to answer. |
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Nov 24, 2008 2:37:57 GMT -5
I see a deep recession but less than 5 years.
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Post by Yossarian on Nov 24, 2008 9:29:45 GMT -5
It is extremely concerning. What is even more concerning is that the world’s leaders are planning to attack the problem but perpetuating the same fundamental flaw in the economy that caused the problem: the oversupply of cheap and accessible money.
Yeah sure, they’re talking tough about more stringent regulation of derivative trading, but Sarbanes-Oxley was supposed to straighten out corporate governance after Enron and World.com. At the end of the day, greed and corruption will rule again. Cheap money will mean there will be no other options as far as earning real returns on any other investment vehicle other than equity markets. Institutional investors will over-inflate equities, the day traders will buying on margin again, people will overextend themselves again, and the world will be no better off.
I think back to my parents and how they managed with an 18% interest rate on their mortgage, my dad making $25 K per year, and my mom staying home with 3 kids, yet we managed just fine. WTF?
The key to getting out of this mess is companies and individuals building real wealth. As the ING guy says, “save your money”. It takes discipline and sacrifice, and is extremely difficult in a world where everyone has to have the latest, a “big” everything just to keep up with the Jones. Since many people have lost their job, and others will lose theirs, it will be even more difficult. But it is the only way, which is why I think the recovery will take at least 5 years, if not longer.
The Tax Free Savings Account that comes into effect in January, can’t come at a sooner time for Canadians. It is a good vehicle to encourage people to save, invest wisely (don’t listen to the mutual fund companies; 3-4% in a guaranteed investment in a deflationary period or any other period, is still better than 7-10% in a much riskier investment in a period of 2-3% inflation) and start paying themselves and build some real wealth, or a nest egg or some tax free earnings to spend in the future, and become less reliant on credit.
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Post by Cranky on Nov 24, 2008 10:14:14 GMT -5
At this point, it looks like most people believe it will be a deep recession.
Where do I stand? Five and eight I say......
There is a saying that.....things always look worse then they are and they are never as good as they look. This is the case now. By March, I think that we will be looking at 10% plus unemployment. With that, there will be a lot of deep belt tightening by many, particularly the middle class that drives the consumer spending. I don't think things will change with Obama sending out billions of dollars or Harper spending a several billion on infrustructure. After all, what exactly will a $500 check do for someone who needs the bare minimum of a few thousand a month to get bye. Never mind those who need $5,000 per month to get bye. Or in Canada, sending a several thousand to work on local projects.
What will give consumers more confidence? Time. The screaming on this recession has gone into overdrive by the media and it get's worse when huge corporations are threatening to send the economy over the edge unless they collect blood money from the taxpayers. The bank is the flood gate that opened the doors for more bailout black mail. That is one of the reasons I was against it. And this is one of the reasons that I am against ANY leftish government (never mind, the curent right has forgotten what fiscal conservatism is all about).
So time or another crisis (new war? terror attack?) will take over and people will go back to the way they are use to living. Borrow and spend. The economy will roll again BUT there is another greater doom coming.....
As the US goes over a cliff....
TWENTY FOUR TRILLION is what the government and personal debt right now. With bailouts and all the shenannigans going on, this will rise to thirty trillion within a few years. How EXACTLY can that be paid off? This debt translates to $80,000 for every man, woman and child yet there is less the ONE PERCENT of American families that can afford to pay that kind of debt off while still putting food on the table. Where is this money going to come from? Even worse, where is the trillions of dollars of underfunded entitlements like social security, Medicaid and Medicare going to come from? With a tide of baby boomers about to retire, those cost will skyrocket. So now what? You can't tax what people don't have. Hyperinflation? No other way. And it will make what is happening now look like GOOD times.
So what do I think? I think that there will be a medium recession for about two years followed by about a year that appears to head for normalcy, but it simply the catalyst for high to hyperinflation. Within four years, I can't see anything but hell breaking lose and it's going to sweep EVERYBODY including those that are fairly well off.
Five now and eight later.
Yes, I am very worried.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Nov 24, 2008 10:32:35 GMT -5
I think back to my parents and how they managed with an 18% interest rate on their mortgage, my dad making $25 K per year, and my mom staying home with 3 kids, yet we managed just fine. WTF? A different generation of people for sure. My parents never provided me any kind of financial bailout, but I know for a fact they'd have been there for me if I really needed it. My in-laws were from the same generation. We were living in Charlottetown a few years back and had a bid in on a house. We didn't have the down payment and the bank wouldn't accept anything from borrowed funds, but we knew the in-laws would've been there for us. The selling price for that bungalow in Sherwood Park was $31,000, but our deal fell through on a previous offer standing on the house. Too bad really as the house had doubled by the time we left 2 1/2 years later. However, I learned right from the time Mrs Dis and I moved out together ... you pay your bills then you eat. That's a hard concept for a lot of young people to grasp especially when credit is so easily accessible. We can only hope we prepare our kids properly. I'm still not clear on the whole Tax Free Savings Account concept. It sounds really good but I have to research this a bit more. Cheers. |
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Nov 24, 2008 11:38:07 GMT -5
It is extremely concerning. What is even more concerning is that the world’s leaders are planning to attack the problem but perpetuating the same fundamental flaw in the economy that caused the problem: the oversupply of cheap and accessible money. Yeah sure, they’re talking tough about more stringent regulation of derivative trading, but Sarbanes-Oxley was supposed to straighten out corporate governance after Enron and World.com. At the end of the day, greed and corruption will rule again. Cheap money will mean there will be no other options as far as earning real returns on any other investment vehicle other than equity markets. Institutional investors will over-inflate equities, the day traders will buying on margin again, people will overextend themselves again, and the world will be no better off. I think back to my parents and how they managed with an 18% interest rate on their mortgage, my dad making $25 K per year, and my mom staying home with 3 kids, yet we managed just fine. WTF? The key to getting out of this mess is companies and individuals building real wealth. As the ING guy says, “save your money”. It takes discipline and sacrifice, and is extremely difficult in a world where everyone has to have the latest, a “big” everything just to keep up with the Jones. Since many people have lost their job, and others will lose theirs, it will be even more difficult. But it is the only way, which is why I think the recovery will take at least 5 years, if not longer. The Tax Free Savings Account that comes into effect in January, can’t come at a sooner time for Canadians. It is a good vehicle to encourage people to save, invest wisely (don’t listen to the mutual fund companies; 3-4% in a guaranteed investment in a deflationary period or any other period, is still better than 7-10% in a much riskier investment in a period of 2-3% inflation) and start paying themselves and build some real wealth, or a nest egg or some tax free earnings to spend in the future, and become less reliant on credit. Thank you! My sentiments exactly. We are in trouble because we overspend buying everything from Ipods to underware made in China. We borrow to do it. Housing tripled in price and became unaffordable to the average wage earner before it crashed. Interest rates dropped to historic lows and loans were made with zero down. Solution? Add liquidity, borrow more and spend more. When interest rates drop to 0% you can't go lower. Give the drunk another drink, the addict clean needles, the banks a bailout. |
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