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Post by jkr on Feb 2, 2010 16:32:37 GMT -5
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Post by seventeen on Feb 3, 2010 0:00:53 GMT -5
We gotta stay away from NCAA guys. Komi, Higgins, McDonagh, Fischer...none of which turned out that well. O'Byrne was a BCHL guy when drafted and Kristo from the USHL. We do better if they go to college after they've been drafted, a la those guys and Leblanc (so far).
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Post by roke on Feb 3, 2010 20:40:43 GMT -5
We gotta stay away from NCAA guys. Komi, Higgins, McDonagh, Fischer...none of which turned out that well. O'Byrne was a BCHL guy when drafted and Kristo from the USHL. We do better if they go to college after they've been drafted, a la those guys and Leblanc (so far). McDonagh and Fischer were both drafted before they went to the NCAA. If you compare Higgins to his draft class, he turned out very well. Komisarek turned out pretty well, not great, but pretty well. Hemsky or Hamhuis would have been nice, but if you look at the other guys drafted behind him, he's certainly not a disappointment, and it looks like we won't be able to say that about Mr. Fischer. |
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Post by seventeen on Feb 4, 2010 1:58:08 GMT -5
We gotta stay away from NCAA guys. Komi, Higgins, McDonagh, Fischer...none of which turned out that well. O'Byrne was a BCHL guy when drafted and Kristo from the USHL. We do better if they go to college after they've been drafted, a la those guys and Leblanc (so far). McDonagh and Fischer were both drafted before they went to the NCAA. I knew someone would pick up on that. Can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time......  |
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Post by Boston_Habs on Feb 4, 2010 9:16:07 GMT -5
We gotta stay away from NCAA guys. Komi, Higgins, McDonagh, Fischer...none of which turned out that well. O'Byrne was a BCHL guy when drafted and Kristo from the USHL. We do better if they go to college after they've been drafted, a la those guys and Leblanc (so far). McDonagh and Fischer were both drafted before they went to the NCAA. The issue is body of work and level of competition. Both Fischer and McDonagh were drafted out of the Minnesota high school system, which plays a limited number of games against increasingly weak competition. The way it works in the US now is that just about every kid with a decent shot at the NHL is either playing Canadian junior or the USHL, where they play more games against better players. Louis Leblanc, Danny Kristo, and Max Pacioretty were drafted from the USHL, which is an excellent league that gets better every year. The old days of top quality high school and prep school hockey in the US are over. Very few kids play there. Most kids play 2-3 years of high school, then jump to the USHL for their junior and/or senior years to raise their draft profile. I know McDonagh was touted as 1st round material, but it was still a mistake to draft him IMO. You just can't do a proper talent evaluation unless you see the kid play a lot of games against elite competition. Fischer was an even worse mistake, as he was considered a reach when we picked him 20th overall. I would focus 1st and 2nd round drafting on Canadian junior, the USHL, and elite European players. Take chances later in the draft on players from lesser leagues. This is why Andrei Kostitsyn was also a risky pick at #10 - not so much for his skills, but the level of competition was so much lower as were the number of games played. Plus it's harder to do the kind of personal due diligence that you can do in the US and Canada (talking to coaches, teachers, etc.). Many of you guys probably read "Moneyball", by Michael Lewis. I think the story is similar in hockey. Sometimes scouts get enamored with a skill set or physical attributes and projecting "upside", but Billy Beane preferred to draft older college players because they played more games and had a real track record of production. I think Trevor Timmins must have loved David Fischer's upside - good size, great skater, good puck skills.... but he was playing something like 20-25 games a year against weaker players. Just not enough to go on. Same with McDonagh. Forget trying to find that diamond in the rough. Take the best kid available that has put up the best numbers against the best competition. |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Feb 4, 2010 10:24:19 GMT -5
There is a world of difference between kids in the Minnesota HS system and those in junior levels of organized hockey. One is the competition. Bigger seniors at HS can look pretty darn impressive against 15 year olds and those kids with no real hockey aspirations beyond high school. It is tough to get a good read on the "stars" in the league. Also, they tend to play a very short season, so you don't get to see how kids respond to wear and tear and fatigue from travel and a lot of tough hockey games. Now, some kids do emerge and turn into bona fide NHL players, but a lot of the kids in the US who have plans to make a career out of this game go the US National Development program route or junior leagues like the USHL (they have others, but that is the country's best junior league for sure).
Danny Kristo hails from the state of Minnesota, but he spent time in both the US national development program and a year in the USHL. As a second rounder his hockey career path has accelerated way past where both McD and Fischer are right now, as past first rounders chosen right out of high school (albeit both recipients of the impressive Mr Hockey award, but I harken back to the level of competition comments above). Danny was well prepared for his jump to the NCAA ranks and also for his call to wear his country's colours these past two years at the WJC.
In Canada, the three CHL leagues really groom the kids for the rigour of the pro game. It is a long tough season and the coaching styles and approaches resemble what the kids could come to expect in the pros. A draft eligible kid is no longer the "star" of the league, he is now a 17 year old playing against mainly 18-20 year olds. A scout can get a really good read over a long season as to the kids strengths and weaknesses.
Scouting is definitely an art as well as a science. There is the need to project development of kids that are merely teenagers. A lot can happen, and it does.
I like that Timmins and Co have picked a lot of mid and late rounders from the NCAA/HS systems, as that gives them four years to make a contract decision rather than the two for CHL kids. However, when it comes to picking top end talent, those kids are usually playing against top end peers. Time to start making better use of the first round picks IMO.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Feb 4, 2010 10:42:17 GMT -5
Onto the specifics of the players talked about in the article. A few additional observations.
Mike Cichy - he actually had more points than both Danny Kristo and Louis Leblanc last season in the USHL. He has been getting 4th line duty at UND, when he is not a healthy scratch as they have a pool of kids that they rotate in and out of that fourth line. Is all lost for him? I would say not, but patience will be needed to see how he develops as part of a very strong and deep UND team. Have a peek at that team's roster, they love to recruit kids out of the Junior A AJHL here in AB.
Danny Kristo - by now, likely everyone on this board has seen this kid play. That says a lot actually.
Louis Leblanc - a point per game as a rookie/freshman in the NCAA (an 18 year old so no extra year in the USHL after being drafted like a number of kids do) and being near the top of all NCAA rookies in terms of production is impressive. I do not see this young man graduating from Harvard in four years, he will be playing pro hockey by then.
Fischer - he will be the first Minnesota Golden Gopher first round NHL pick to play his full four years in the NCAA. Yeah, not quite the "first" the scouting team likely wanted. He did stay back at home in Minnesota this season because of an ailing parent, but he still didn't look 100% ready to make the jump anyway. The offensive upside that was seen in HS seems to have disappeared in the NCAA, where he has become a more defensive defender. He still has good size and really good skating, so not all is lost with this kid. I just think he was picked far too early, but still should develop into a decent enough player.
Kishel and Johnson - if they get signed to contracts, I will be surprised.
Stesjkal - this guys lays out serious hits and has a big shot, although it does not seem to be converting into points this season. The Habs don't have a lot of tough nosed defensive prospects, so I like this kid. He also is playing on Dartmouth that is having a really bad year, so hard to get a good read on him overall this season. I also have not seen any of their games yet, but do hope to at some point.
Walsh - an Ontario kid drafted out of Junior A in Kingston (on a team that won Ontario and went onto the RBC Cup last season, so the kid saw tons of hockey last season). He is putting up decent numbers as a rookie on a bad team. I would keep an eye on this kid, he has size, speed and soft hands. He needs to get a little thicker as most lanky teenagers do once they sprout up, but I would not count him out one bit.
Pateryn - a big mobile defensive defender. Again, a solid citizen in his own end and decent enough puck handler and distributor. Not many like him in the system, so he should get a shot with the Dogs at some point.
Quailer - he got submarined by a kid off a NB university team in a pre-season game that was a blowout. That play and injury ended his season. Too bad as he was coming off a great rookie campaign. He is another to watch. He needs to get tougher and stronger, but has wheels and skills. He was a big part of Northeastern's great season last year where they spent a whole lot of time as one of the top ranked teams in Division I.
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Post by jkr on Feb 4, 2010 15:06:29 GMT -5
The article also states that Fischer has to be signed to a deal by the of the year or teh Habs lose his rights. Unfortunately I think it says a lot that the Habs have waited 4 season for this 1st rounder & still haven't made up their minds. He turns 22 in a couple of weeks.
Would they actually let him go or sign him & see how he progresses as a pro?
BTW, I had a look at the rest of that 1st round. The only players picked after Fischer that seem to playing a regular role on their teams are Claude Giroux & Nick Foligno.
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Post by CrocRob on Feb 4, 2010 16:09:06 GMT -5
If the Habs don't sign Fischer, they'll get a compensatory pick at the 20th position of the 2nd round in 2011. Something to consider.
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Post by Boston_Habs on Feb 4, 2010 16:09:40 GMT -5
So what happens? They sign him to a 2-3 year pro contract at short money and send him to Hamilton? Sad, but I doubt the kid even has what it takes to play in the AHL.
Is there any other league we can send him to and still retain his rights?
What a bust of a pick. I take some comfort in the fact that there are few players picked after him that are contributing, but it's the thought process that went into drafting him that was flawed. Sometimes you make the right decision based on all the information at the time and it still doesn't work out. I can live with that. But we should not be burning 1st round picks on projects that have not shown enough against top competition.
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Post by jkr on Feb 4, 2010 16:31:01 GMT -5
If the Habs don't sign Fischer, they'll get a compensatory pick at the 20th position of the 2nd round in 2011. Something to consider. That's probably more than he is worth right now. BTW - you are a wealth of info when it comes to this stuff. What do you use for sources? |
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Post by CrocRob on Feb 4, 2010 16:53:45 GMT -5
If the Habs don't sign Fischer, they'll get a compensatory pick at the 20th position of the 2nd round in 2011. Something to consider. That's probably more than he is worth right now. BTW - you are a wealth of info when it comes to this stuff. What do you use for sources? I've been unemployed off and on for the last year. I took the time to read through the entire (relevant parts of) CBA at one point because the finer details of certain things like waiver eligibility and salary cap stuff being presented were largely incorrect. Sometimes the details escape my memory, but for CBA information the actual CBA is available for download here and is fully searchable. Also, the Business of Hockey board at HFBoards is a great resource. |
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Post by CrocRob on Feb 4, 2010 17:05:50 GMT -5
So what happens? They sign him to a 2-3 year pro contract at short money and send him to Hamilton? Sad, but I doubt the kid even has what it takes to play in the AHL. Is there any other league we can send him to and still retain his rights? What a bust of a pick. I take some comfort in the fact that there are few players picked after him that are contributing, but it's the thought process that went into drafting him that was flawed. Sometimes you make the right decision based on all the information at the time and it still doesn't work out. I can live with that. But we should not be burning 1st round picks on projects that have not shown enough against top competition. I don't know how strong the class of 2011 looks, but I would strongly consider letting his rights expire to get the compensatory pick. Technically, we can actually sign him after that point as well (cake and eat it too, etc) but it would seem unlikely. That being said, NWT is correct. Fischer is a fantastic skater and has decent size. I have little doubt that David will make the NHL at some capacity, but that capacity remains to be seen. If we sign him, we have to hope that Boucher is man to coach him up to that level. I saw a study the other day which showed that Montreal has the most active draftees playing in the NHL right now. It's hard to believe, but it's true. They're missing that serious impact player, but I'm pretty comfortable with them taking an educated shot at huge success once in a while instead of picking the next guy on the Central Scouting board. I'm not sure what constitutes top competition. I suppose you'd not advocate drafting any American or European or QMJHL players in the first round. The WHL and OHL are probably the top two leagues in the world at that age level, but they don't provide *that* much talent. There were actually only 2 OHL players selected after Fischer in the first round, and just 1 from the WHL (and a goaltender to boot). Yeah, we missed out on Giroux, Foligno and Sanguinetti (though I'm not a fan of the latter) but in general the 2006 entry draft is turning out horribly. If our scouts knew that the draft class was weak, what better time to take a home run swing? I guess it would be suffice to say I'm less concerned with the Fischer pick than you are. |
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Post by jkr on Feb 4, 2010 21:07:06 GMT -5
That's probably more than he is worth right now. BTW - you are a wealth of info when it comes to this stuff. What do you use for sources? I've been unemployed off and on for the last year. I took the time to read through the entire (relevant parts of) CBA at one point because the finer details of certain things like waiver eligibility and salary cap stuff being presented were largely incorrect. Sometimes the details escape my memory, but for CBA information the actual CBA is available for download here and is fully searchable. Also, the Business of Hockey board at HFBoards is a great resource. Thanks Red - I will have a look. |
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Post by Boston_Habs on Feb 5, 2010 9:08:51 GMT -5
Yeah, we missed out on Giroux, Foligno and Sanguinetti (though I'm not a fan of the latter) but in general the 2006 entry draft is turning out horribly. If our scouts knew that the draft class was weak, what better time to take a home run swing? I guess it would be suffice to say I'm less concerned with the Fischer pick than you are. Fair point. If you're convinced the rest of the draft is weak then there's an argument that you should pick a project guy with more upside. The Fischer pick hasn't been terribly costly, but we did the same thing the very next year picking high-schooler Ryan McDonagh. The pick that kills me the most was Andrei Kostitsyn in 2003. Too many good players in that draft and we went with the riskiest pick. |
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Post by CrocRob on Feb 5, 2010 9:20:46 GMT -5
Yeah, we missed out on Giroux, Foligno and Sanguinetti (though I'm not a fan of the latter) but in general the 2006 entry draft is turning out horribly. If our scouts knew that the draft class was weak, what better time to take a home run swing? I guess it would be suffice to say I'm less concerned with the Fischer pick than you are. Fair point. If you're convinced the rest of the draft is weak then there's an argument that you should pick a project guy with more upside. The Fischer pick hasn't been terribly costly, but we did the same thing the very next year picking high-schooler Ryan McDonagh. The pick that kills me the most was Andrei Kostitsyn in 2003. Too many good players in that draft and we went with the riskiest pick. I'll absolutely support you on that one. I don't recall Kostitsyn having nearly enough credibility back then to merit his pick and given his medical issues it's quite possible he'd have fallen quite a ways. |
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Post by Lord Bebop on Feb 6, 2010 12:43:31 GMT -5
Yeah I'm sure the Fischer didn't turn out to be the player Timmins thought he would be. I remember Timmins mentioning Fischer has high offensive upside.
Well I'm sure we all realize he won't be anything close to the two-way defenseman he was billed as but he has a chance to be a good shutdown type guy. Good speed, size and reach. Something we lack on the big club right now.
Waiting to sign him and getting a second seems like a great idea but doesn't seem like a Gainey type move to me. But it would be kind of neat especially considering we already got a second rounder as we traded down to draft Fischer with the Sharks. I think we drafted Carle with that pick.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Feb 6, 2010 12:56:38 GMT -5
Yeah I'm sure the Fischer didn't turn out to be the player Timmins thought he would be. I remember Timmins mentioning Fischer has high offensive upside. Well I'm sure we all realize he won't be anything close to the two-way defenseman he was billed as but he has a chance to be a good shutdown type guy. Good speed, size and reach. Something we lack on the big club right now. Waiting to sign him and getting a second seems like a great idea but doesn't seem like a Gainey type move to me. But it would be kind of neat especially considering we already got a second rounder as we traded down to draft Fischer with the Sharks. I think we drafted Carle with that pick. SJ picked Ty Wishart with that pick (a big shut down guy from the Dub) and he was who many picked the Habs to go for with their original #16 pick. He is now in the Tampa system and got five games in the NHL. Carle and Fischer > Wishart IMO |
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Post by Lord Bebop on Feb 6, 2010 13:09:19 GMT -5
Yeah I'm sure the Fischer didn't turn out to be the player Timmins thought he would be. I remember Timmins mentioning Fischer has high offensive upside. Well I'm sure we all realize he won't be anything close to the two-way defenseman he was billed as but he has a chance to be a good shutdown type guy. Good speed, size and reach. Something we lack on the big club right now. Waiting to sign him and getting a second seems like a great idea but doesn't seem like a Gainey type move to me. But it would be kind of neat especially considering we already got a second rounder as we traded down to draft Fischer with the Sharks. I think we drafted Carle with that pick. SJ picked Ty Wishart with that pick (a big shut down guy from the Dub) and he was who many picked the Habs to go for with their original #16 pick. He is now in the Tampa system and got five games in the NHL. Carle and Fischer > Wishart IMO Speaking of Carle he has become very solid 2-way defensman with Hamilton before his injury. I think next training camp he will be close to sticking. Mind you Subban and Weber deserve their shots too. |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Feb 7, 2010 12:39:52 GMT -5
Speaking of Carle he has become very solid 2-way defensman with Hamilton before his injury. I think next training camp he will be close to sticking. Mind you Subban and Weber deserve their shots too. I think Carle really turned a big corner this season. He is a bona fide NHL prospect now for sure. Hopefully Gainey sees that getting older and slower on the blueline may not be necessary any more, as he can get younger and much more mobile from within his own ranks as early as next fall. |
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Post by CrocRob on Feb 7, 2010 13:14:39 GMT -5
I would be extremely disappointed if Carle wasn't given every opportunity to make the squad next season. He had an excellent call up and proved he could play with the big boys. Now it's a matter of keeping him healthy.
Markov-O'Byrne
Hamrlik-Gorges
Spacek-Carle.
Ought to be a solid, but not spectacular, blueline next season. I'd like to fit Gill in somehow, mostly due to his PK abilities, but there just isn't room for specialists in the new NHL. You need 6 guys who can play in all situations if need be.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Feb 7, 2010 14:06:53 GMT -5
I would be extremely disappointed if Carle wasn't given every opportunity to make the squad next season. He had an excellent call up and proved he could play with the big boys. Now it's a matter of keeping him healthy. Markov-O'Byrne Hamrlik-Gorges Spacek-Carle. Ought to be a solid, but not spectacular, blueline next season. I'd like to fit Gill in somehow, mostly due to his PK abilities, but there just isn't room for specialists in the new NHL. You need 6 guys who can play in all situations if need be. The good thing about that group is that Spacek returns to the left, as he clearly struggles playing on his off side for the first time. Gorges is the one left hander who seems comfortable on the right, mainly due to a lot more playing time over there. I also think that soon PK Subban makes MAB expendible at some point. |
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Post by CrocRob on Feb 7, 2010 15:01:09 GMT -5
I don't see how Subban can knock off any of those six unless his defensive play has improved leaps and bounds from last I saw. The stats support that assertion, but not having seen him live recently I can't confirm. I don't really want to bring PK up unless he can take a full-time spot. Next year he should be an injury call-up and we can talk about full-time spots then. Hamrlik and Markov both have expiring UFA contracts at that time.
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