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Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Jun 21, 2004 19:29:51 GMT -5
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Post by Patty Roy on Jun 21, 2004 20:50:44 GMT -5
I've been waiting for this! I always look forward to McKenzie's draft lists, IMO they are usually the most informed.
Some random thoughts...
- Interesting that he has Montoya ahead of Schwarz and in the top 5.
- Thelen at #8. I've been thinking that the publications that have him going mid-1st are going to be way off.
- Smid in the top 10....not far off from other lists, but there is something about this kids scouting reports that just doesn't sit well with me.
- Olesz at 10 seems low.
- Zajac at #14 seems high. I've heard/read from people who have seen this kid live, and none of them seemed overly impressed.
- Korpikoski at 16 may be the highest i've seen him (outside of RedLine). I hope he's still on the board at #18, but i'm starting to have my doubts.
- If Picard drops to the mid-1st, do the Habs trade up to land the big french winger?
- What's the deal with Meszaros? He's all over the map on these lists...from #5-20.
- Fransson at #16 is high compared to other lists. Hmmm...i wonder which team/scout sees him as a mid 1st rounder???
- Mike Green a bordeline 1st rounder who could easily slip into the 2nd round?
All in all a great read. I really like the Habs draft position. The more i read about this draft, the more i think there is very little to choose from between picks #10-#20ish.
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Post by BadCompany on Jun 22, 2004 8:18:51 GMT -5
I'm not all that surprised by Montoya being ahead of Schwarz, to be honest with you. Most fans have it in reverse, but the "expert" opinion is somewhat divided. Makes me think of a couple of years ago, when many people insisted that Dan Blackburn would go ahead of Pascal Leclair - no real reason for their insistence, but they sure were vocal about it.
Mind you, in hindsight, maybe Leclair should have gone after Blackburn, but I digress.
Having said that, I’m not sure I would have Montoya in the top 5. In my opinion, humble though it may be, I’m not sure any of the top 5 teams really need a goalie. Washington isn’t going to pass on Ovechkin, Pittsburgh has Fleury, Chicago might, but only if they trade down first, I don’t see them using the 3rd overall on a goalie, Columbus has Leclair and a dire need for players who will be ready within 2-3 years, and not 5-7, and Phoenix drafted David Leneveau high last year, and his NCAA numbers rival those of our very hyped Yann Danis.
You then have the Rangers, who still have Blackburn (though if they think his injury last year is going to finish him…), Carolina who drafted Cam Ward in the 1st round last year (and Ward was a finalist for CHL player of the year, along with Corey Locke and some kid named Crosby, or something), Anaheim with Giguere and Bryzgalov, and Atlanta with Kari Lehtonen.
I wouldn’t be surprised if both goalies fell out of the top 10.
Personally, I’d love to get Thelen. 17 year old kid who has played very well against much older competition… Good size, natural ability, sounds like a player to me. But Habs would probably have to trade up (way up) to ensure they have a real chance at him.
Olesz at #10 seems low to me as well, for a guy who has been ranked top 3 pretty much all year. Sure, he has had injury problems, but still…
I wonder how Andre Savard sees Picard? Apparently he has a very ugly skating style, and we know Savard values skating. While “ugly” does not necessarily mean “slow” it could still factor into Savard’s decision. But I certainly won’t complain if he is our pick. I suspect though, he will become an instant media darling, perhaps giving Mike Ribeiro a run for his money in the coveted “most hyped home grown saviour” category.
On Mike Green, from what I gather, I think there are some real questions about his upside. Safe pick, but not a sexy one. A guy who may take 6 or 7 years before he cracks the lineup on a regular basis, and then really isn’t anything all that special once he is there. Like Craig Rivet. A nice player to have, but not something that probably couldn’t be found elsewhere. Wouldn’t complain about him either, though.
The only guys I think I might be disappointed in, if we pick them, are Schremp, Smid and Chipchura. Schremp, because 17 year old prima donnas rarely find Jesus and convert to model citizens (and if Mr. Bozo though Hainsey is bad…), Smid, because a non-hitting, no scoring, playmaking defenseman who doesn’t get any assists and has defensive deficiencies sets off alarm bells in my head, and Chipchura because I’d like my draft picks to have more than 15 goals a season if they are playing in lower leagues. Defenseman Mike Green scored 14 in the same league, for comparison’s sake.
Korpikoski is who I had Montreal picking, but I think they will have to cross their fingers when the Oilers pick. The Oil like Finnish players, and he fits their drafting model as well. Habs might have to trade up.
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Post by blny on Jun 22, 2004 10:49:13 GMT -5
I know the talk has been centering around Chipchura of late (as our pick), but what about Zajac kid from BC Tier II? He's roughly the same size, and put up crazy numbers this year (albeit at the Tier II level). He's going to a strong NCAA system next year. Bobby Mac has him going 14th, but he's the type of prospect that could drop because of where he played. If he's available, I think I might lean to him. Chipchura didn't exactly have a great season (when all eyes were on him). Mac calls Kyle a safe first round pick. To me that isn't exactly a ringing endorsement. Mac also has Radulov pegged for 18th. Not to sure about this. The last comment on him hits home for me. He didn't do well at the combines. Bob's 20th ranked player is an interesting player. Andrej Meszaros. Decent size, and should fill out. Any kid that can crack the lineup of a mens WC, and do well, (like he did for Slovakia this year) deserves a real look. So IMO, desirability from one to three (if all available when we come up) is:
1. Zajac
2. Chipcura
3. Meszaros
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Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Jun 22, 2004 14:09:32 GMT -5
The only guys I think I might be disappointed in, if we pick them, are Schremp, Smid and Chipchura. ...Chipchura because I’d like my draft picks to have more than 15 goals a season if they are playing in lower leagues. Defenseman Mike Green scored 14 in the same league, for comparison’s sake. Tsk tsk BC, relying on numbers to make a point?  Here's a list of players and their stats for the junior season they began at 17 years of age. They were all drafted in the top 20. Only OHA and WHL players are represented. After each player's draft position the numbers indicate games, goals, assists and points. Mel Bridgman drafted #4 overall 4 1 1 2 Greg Malone #19 overall 62 11 45 56 Bobby Smith #1 overall 62 24 34 58 Al Secord #16 overall 63 9 13 22 Brent Sutter #17 overall 5 1 0 1 Ron Sutter #4 overall 72 13 32 45 Rich Sutter #10 overall 72 23 18 41 Dave Andreychuk #16 overall 67 22 22 44 John MacLean #6 overall 67 17 22 39 Keith Primeau #3 overall 48 20 35 55 Glen Murray #18 overall 62 8 28 36 Jason Arnott #7 overall 57 9 15 24 Shane Doan #7 overall 52 24 24 48 Kyle Chipchura ranked #4 North American 64 15 33 48 Chipchura will have time to put up numbers in junior. However, it's primarily his other qualities that got him ranked so high. Let's not forget that he dropped from #1 at mid-season to #4 at the end due to injuries. It would be sweet if the Habs were to draft him and he turned out to have an NHL career like any of the players listed above. Of course he could end up having just a cup of coffee in the NHL or not making it at all, like roughly half the players selected in the first round through the years. I prefer to sing: Chip chippery
Chip chippery
Chip chip chur-ah!
18 is as lucky
As lucky can be |
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Post by BadCompany on Jun 22, 2004 14:55:09 GMT -5
Tsk tsk BC, relying on numbers to make a point? Here's a list of players and their stats for the junior season they began at 17 years of age. They were all drafted in the top 20. Only OHA and WHL players are represented. After each player's draft position the numbers indicate games, goals, assists and points. Mel Bridgman drafted #4 overall 4 1 1 2 Greg Malone #19 overall 62 11 45 56 Bobby Smith #1 overall 62 24 34 58 Al Secord #16 overall 63 9 13 22 Brent Sutter #17 overall 5 1 0 1 Ron Sutter #4 overall 72 13 32 45 Rich Sutter #10 overall 72 23 18 41 Dave Andreychuk #16 overall 67 22 22 44 John MacLean #6 overall 67 17 22 39 Keith Primeau #3 overall 48 20 35 55 Glen Murray #18 overall 62 8 28 36 Jason Arnott #7 overall 57 9 15 24 Shane Doan #7 overall 52 24 24 48 Kyle Chipchura ranked #4 North American 64 15 33 48 Chipchura will have time to put up numbers in junior. However, it's primarily his other qualities that got him ranked so high. Let's not forget that he dropped from #1 at mid-season to #4 at the end due to injuries. It would be sweet if the Habs were to draft him and he turned out to have an NHL career like any of the players listed above. Of course he could end up having just a cup of coffee in the NHL or not making it at all, like roughly half the players selected in the first round through the years. I prefer to sing: Chip chippery
Chip chippery
Chip chip chur-ah!
18 is as lucky
As lucky can beMis-leading, my dear Mr. Bozo, mis-leading. * Jason Arnott was drafted AFTER he notched 41 goals, and 57 assists in 56 games. * Shane Doan was drafted AFTER a 37 goals, 94 point season. * Glen Murray was drafted AFTER a season of 65 points in 66 games. * Keith Primeau was drafted AFTER a 57 goal, 127 point season. * John Maclean was drafted AFTER a 47 goal, 98 point season. * Dave Andreychuk was drafted AFTER a 58 goal, 101 point season. * Rich Sutter was drafted AFTER a 69 point in 57 game season. * Ron Sutter was drafted AFTER getting 92 points in 59 games (and 207 PIMS!) * Brent Sutter was drafter after his 5 game season. Not sure what that was all about. * Al Secord was drafted after a 50 point in 59 game season (with 159 PIMs) * Bobby Smith was drafted 1st overall – AFTER racking up 69 goals, 192 points in 61 games. Would he have been drafted first overall, with the numbers you quote? * Greg Malone was drafted AFTER a 72 points in 61 game season. * Mel Bridgman was drafted AFTER a 157 point season (66 games) with 175 PIMs. Yes, they were all older than Chipchura when they were drafted. But they had all PROVEN that they had offensive ability before being drafted. Would they have been picked otherwise? See? Numbers CAN be used for anything…  |
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Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Jun 22, 2004 16:08:11 GMT -5
Mis-leading, my dear Mr. Bozo, mis-leading. * Jason Arnott was drafted AFTER he notched 41 goals, and 57 assists in 56 games. * Shane Doan was drafted AFTER a 37 goals, 94 point season. * Glen Murray was drafted AFTER a season of 65 points in 66 games. * Keith Primeau was drafted AFTER a 57 goal, 127 point season. * John Maclean was drafted AFTER a 47 goal, 98 point season. * Dave Andreychuk was drafted AFTER a 58 goal, 101 point season. * Rich Sutter was drafted AFTER a 69 point in 57 game season. * Ron Sutter was drafted AFTER getting 92 points in 59 games (and 207 PIMS!) * Brent Sutter was drafter after his 5 game season. Not sure what that was all about. * Al Secord was drafted after a 50 point in 59 game season (with 159 PIMs) * Bobby Smith was drafted 1st overall – AFTER racking up 69 goals, 192 points in 61 games. Would he have been drafted first overall, with the numbers you quote? * Greg Malone was drafted AFTER a 72 points in 61 game season. * Mel Bridgman was drafted AFTER a 157 point season (66 games) with 175 PIMs. Yes, they were all older than Chipchura when they were drafted. But they had all PROVEN that they had offensive ability before being drafted. Would they have been picked otherwise? See? Numbers CAN be used for anything… That's another way of looking at it. My point was that it's not unusual to draft someone (da-da-da-daa) who has had a mediocre point scoring season as a 17 year old; provided there are enough other blue chip skills in evidence (and it certainly does seem that Chipchura has those in spades - hence his high CSS rankings). Would it surprise me if Chipchura were to double his points output to 96 as an 18 year old junior? Of course not! Then I could say that after his so-so production as a 17 year old he out-produced solid first round NHLers such as Malone, Secord, Sutter x 3, Murray and Doan as an 18 year old. Oh Habby day! Numbers are good. Everyone should make numbers their friends. Though I hear Bettman and Goodenow are talking about abolishing the use of numbers in the NHL...I'll dig up that article sometime soon... ;D |
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