All the mock drafts...

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

...carry the news.

Why not consolidate links to all the mock drafts and prospect ratings in one thread for easy reference, and make a sticky, says I.

BadCompany's mock draft

Hockey's Future mock draft

Hockey News top 60 prospects

International Scouting Service mock draft

McKeen's mock first round

Bob McKenzie's top 50 prospects

Sports Forecaster mock draft: phase 2

Sports Forecaster's top 125 prospects

TSN mock draft

USA Today

*

I've taken the names of the players selected just before (#17), at (#18) and immediately after (#19) the Habs spot in the first round by the various pundits, and assigned 1 point for each selection. The (completely unscientific) results are:

Chipchura - 4
Wolski - 4
Radulov - 4
Lisin - 3
Korpikoski - 3
Picard - 2
Dubnyk - 2
Fransson - 1
Graham - 1
Green - 1
Nokelainen - 1
Smid - 1
Bolland - 1
Schwarz - 1

BadCompany
17. Schwarz 18. Korpikoski 19. ---

Hockey's Future
17. Radulov 18. Fransson 19. Lisin

Hockey News
17. Dubnyk 18. Chipchura 19. Wolski

International Scouting Service
17. Dubnyk 18. Picard 19. Radulov

McKeen's
17. Wolski 18. Graham 19. Chipchura

Bob McKenzie
17. Picard 18. Radulov 19. Chipchura

Sports Forecaster mock draft
17. Korpikoski 18. Wolski 19. Nokelainen

Sports Forecaster prospect ranking
17. Bolland 18. Green 19. Smid

TSN
17. Radulov 18. Chipchura 19. Lisin

USA Today
17. Lisin 18. Wolski 19. Korpikoski

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

I think that picking 18th we take whatever is left to us. We have no control over what the other GM's do and this year it makes no sense to pay to draft up as there are young guys in our system who are already close to moving up and better procpects than all but the first two.
Depending who is left I would pick, in this order;

Schremp (probably gone)
Valabik (huge and nasty with a bording house reach, a combination of Jacques Laperierre, Komisarek and Ulanov he doesn't have to be a great skater)
Chipchura (skates better than Graham)
Graham (big talented scorer).
They are all very different.
Schremp has the biggest upside and the greatest likelihood of being a total bust.
Valabik will make it to the NHL, but his reflexes and lateral speed is a liability. His final status as superstar, #1 thru #6 D-man is unknown.

None of the above players is ranked ahead of Higgins, Hainsey, Kastitsyn, Milroy or Locke in terms of their readiness to help the team.
Potential is uncertain but can we say with certainty that these guys will be stars?
We shouldn't put too much emphasis on what this years draft will do for the organization, this year or next.

[BadCompany]

Aw shucks. I get listed with the big boys...

[BadCompany]

I'll add USA Today's top 30:

USA Today

Name Pos. Ht., wt. Team League Stats
1. Alexander Ovechkin LW 6-2, 195 Dynamo Russia 53 games, 15 goals, 10 assists, 25 points
2. Evgeni Malkin C 6-3, 185 Magnitogorsk Russia 34, 3, 9, 12
3. Cam Barker D 6-3, 205 Medicine Hat WHL 69, 21, 44, 65
4. Andrew Ladd LW 6-2, 200 Calgary WHL 71, 30, 45, 75
5. Al Montoya G 6-2, 180 Michigan CCHA 2.48 goals-against average
6. Lauri Tukonen C-RW 6-2, 195 Espoo Sweden 35, 3, 3, 6
7. Marek Schwarz G 5-11, 165 Sparta Praha Czech Rep. 3.79 goals-against average
8. Rostislav Olesz C 6-2, 190 Vitkovice Czech Rep. 35, 1, 11, 12
9. A.J. Thelen D 6-3, 210 Michigan State CCHA 42, 11, 18, 29
10. Ladislav Smid D 6-2, 190 Liberec Czech Rep. 45, 1, 1, 2
11. Drew Stafford RW 6-2, 200 North Dakota WCHA 36, 11, 21, 32
12. Robbie Schremp LW 6-0, 195 London OHL 63, 30, 45, 75
13. Alexander Radulov RW 6-1,180 Dynamo Russia 1, 0, 0, 0
14. Alexandre Picard LW 6-2, 190 Lewiston QMJHL 69, 39, 41, 80
15. Boris Valabik D 6-6, 230 Kitchener OHL 68, 3, 12, 15
16. Andrej Meszaros D 6-2, 190 Dukla Trencin Slovakia 44, 3, 3, 6
17. Enver Lisin RW 6-1, 190 Dynamo Russia 30, 9, 5, 14
18. Wojtek Wolski LW 6-2, 190 Brampton OHL 66, 29, 41, 70
19. Lauri Korpikoski LW 6-1, 180 TPS Turku Finland 36, 12, 8, 20
20. Kyle Chipchura C 6-2, 200 Prince Albert WHL 64, 15, 31, 46
21. Blake Wheeler RW 6-4, 195 Breck HS Minnesota 30, 45, 55, 100
22. Dave Bolland C 6-0, 175 London OHL 65, 37, 30, 67
23. Lukas Kaspar RW 6-2, 195 Litvinov Czech Rep. 38, 5, 2, 7
24. Petteri Nokelainen RW 6-1, 190 Saipa Finland 40, 4, 4, 8
25. Travis Zajac C 6-2, 205 Salmon Arm BCHL 59, 43, 69, 112
26. Devan Dubnyk G 6-5, 190 Kamloops WHL 2.51 goals-against average
27. Mike Green D 6-1, 195 Saskatoon WHL 59, 14, 25, 39
28. Cory Schneider G 6-2, 190 Andover Prep school Not available
29. Bruce Graham C 6-5, 220 Moncton QMJHL 68, 24, 33, 57
30. Adam Pineault C 6-2, 195 Boston College Hockey East 30, 4, 4, 8

That would be (17) Linsin, (18) Wolski, and (19) Korpikoski, for Mr. Bozo's analysis (don't know how that affects the rankings, if at all)...

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

BadCompany said:

I'll add USA Today's top 30:

USA Today
That would be (17) Linsin, (18) Wolski, and (19) Korpikoski, for Mr. Bozo's analysis (don't know how that affects the rankings, if at all)...

Thanks. I've updated the Bozometric Analysis.

[blaise]

My compliments to Mr. Bozo (aka Beaux-Eaux) for his helpful compilation of draft predictions.

[NWTHabsFan]

The Bozometer sure points to a first round forward...top six guys from the list are all forwards.

The BPA analysis truly applied appears to be dropping Green and Fransson into that next tier just below where the Habs are choosing.

[Skilly]

Hmmm So far I am 6 out of 9 in my predictions ..... I got Smid wrong but I still feel Meszaros (sp?) is better.

The problem with predicting of course is once you get one wrong ..... that means you automatically get 2 wrong. Ah well ...... it will all fall apart from here on. At least I had a good start.

[Skilly]

Damn Nashville ..... picking Radulov.

Oh well ..... I am jumping on the BC ship now ....... here's hoping we can land Korpikoski!!

I told you this would all go to hell in a handbasket right quick ..... I am now only 7 for 15

[Skilly]

Congrats Bozo,

You picked Chipchura, and I believe HabsAdddict did as well ...... Now I hope he pans out for us. You really think he is a second liner?

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

Skilly said:

Congrats Bozo,

You picked Chipchura, and I believe HabsAdddict did as well ...... Now I hope he pans out for us. You really think he is a second liner?

Thanks. In a way not a tough call. This should erase any doubt that Gainey is the man who decides the direction this team now takes.

Second liner. Why not? Mr Chips will likely be a regular in the NHL before some previous Habs picks have finished cleaning the wax out of their ears.

[blaise]

Chipchura is a safe pick who won't appear in the Bell Centre for several years. Nor is he the type of player who will make a major difference in advancing the Habs into the highest echelon. He's unlikely to be found among the top 50 NHL scorers at any point in his career. There remains a talent gap, which will become apparent when the young players on Atlanta, Florida, Carolina, and Buffalo develop. Nevertheless, I'm not disappointed in the pick. There was no one else available at #18 who had me drooling. At least Chipchura is a lock on making the NHL, and when he does he will add some badly needed size as well as good character to the forwards contingent.

[JFM]

Personally I don't like this pick. This reminds me too much of Serge Savard's typical "boeuf de l'ouest" 1st rounder. This guy could not have been the BPA. To me, this is a draft for need choice, and frankly I just am not happy about it at present. I agree wholeheartedly with our esteemed resident clown..... this feels like a Bob Gainey choice. To finish up, I wasn't too happy with the choice of Chris Higgins. I admit to being wrong about that choice. I can only hope that I'm wrong again. I just don't see an offensive upside to Chipsy. I see a better skating T. Stevenson.... nothing to get excited about IMO.

[blaise]

M. said:

Thanks. In a way not a tough call. This should erase any doubt that Gainey is the man who decides the direction this team now takes.

Second liner. Why not? Mr Chips will likely be a regular in the NHL before some previous Habs picks have finished cleaning the wax out of their ears.

Could we define previous? The most recently drafted forwards in the first round were Higgins, Perezhogin, and Kastsitsyn. I'm skeptical that Chipchura will make it before any of these stalwarts. Perhaps the recent second rounders, Urquhart and Lapierre, are more apt comparisons. And then there's Plekanec, who IMO will make it next season (whether it be 2004-05 or 2005-06). If Plekanec is traded, he'll play in the NHL for his new team.

[blaise]

Most of the mock drafts had at least 80% of their selections picked in the first round. At least one picked the first four selections precisely. No one came close to identifying Wheeler as the fifth. That was a big surprise to insider and outsider alike.

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

Blaise said:

Could we define previous? The most recently drafted forwards in the first round were Higgins, Perezhogin, and Kastsitsyn. I'm skeptical that Chipchura will make it before any of these stalwarts. Perhaps the recent second rounders, Urquhart and Lapierre, are more apt comparisons. And then there's Plekanec, who IMO will make it next season (whether it be 2004-05 or 2005-06). If Plekanec is traded, he'll play in the NHL for his new team.

I wasn't specifically referring to forwards. In fact Hainsey and Hossa came to mind. And Chewy-nard. So, I was being a little facetious. but you get my drift, as you admitted that Chipchura is a stone's throw from being in the show. And a roster NHL player is often worth more to an NHL GM than a prospect.

[blaise]

M. said:

I wasn't specifically referring to forwards. In fact Hainsey and Hossa came to mind. And Chewy-nard. So, I was being a little facetious. but you get my drift, as you admitted that Chipchura is a stone's throw from being in the show. And a roster NHL player is often worth more to an NHL GM than a prospect.

I'll go along with your point, although even Hainsey and Hossa may be playing somewhere in the NHL next season. Swineherd has logged a number of NHL games, albeit for three different teams.

[blaise]

JFM said:

Personally I don't like this pick. This reminds me too much of Serge Savard's typical "boeuf de l'ouest" 1st rounder. This guy could not have been the BPA. To me, this is a draft for need choice, and frankly I just am not happy about it at present. I agree wholeheartedly with our esteemed resident clown..... this feels like a Bob Gainey choice. To finish up, I wasn't too happy with the choice of Chris Higgins. I admit to being wrong about that choice. I can only hope that I'm wrong again. I just don't see an offensive upside to Chipsy. I see a better skating T. Stevenson.... nothing to get excited about IMO.

I don't see any similarity to Turner Stevenson, a useful 3rd-4th line role player. In addition to being far more versatile (he's a center, which Stevenson could never be), Chipchura will surely be a better scorer.

[Goldthorpe]

Kyle Chipchura is a safe pick, and a welcome one. A bit different from the picks we're used to from AS but still.

Biggest surprise of the day: Wheeler at 5th!!!! The guy was on my radar screen and I was asking myself when he would be picked, but that early in the draft? Maybe the Coyote know something we don't. Sure, the guy is huge AND speedy and is supposed to be an offensive catalyst, but picking someone out of high school seems risky to me.

[Skilly]

Blaise said:

Most of the mock drafts had at least 80% of their selections picked in the first round. At least one picked the first four selections precisely. No one came close to identifying Wheeler as the fifth. That was a big surprise to insider and outsider alike.

I only picked the first 20 .... (went 7 for 20 ) ... but I did get the first 4 correct (as posted on the 2004 CSB rankings thread).

I don't know much about Wheeler. But could someone enlighten me. I am not sure if Phoenix had a second round pick (I can look that up), but even if they didn't I am sure if they traded down then they could have gotten a decent player or even a second rounder and a swap of firsts and still got Wheeler in the top 20!

Why was he picked? It doesn't make sense to me unless they knew of another team that was eyeing him in the top ten. I think Gretzky made a mistake here. And what was with his thinking the applause was for him, I would have thought it was for Fletcher when they should him on the jumbotron. To me this diminshed the praise they were intending to show Fletcher.

[BadCompany]

I forget who it was, but they said something along the lines of "Phoenix tried to trick us into moving up" so I guess the Coyotes thought Wheeler would have lasted 3 or 4 more picks, at least, but they didn't want to take a chance of somebody else sneaking in and stealing him away, if they dropped too far down. Like I said elsewhere, if you really believe a guy is the best player available, then you take him. Because if you try to get a little too cute, you might end up missing him, if some other team also secretly believes he is the best player available.

I didn't do so well in this mock draft - only 4 of 18. Going for the surprise pick of Radulov at #3 really hurt me (I thought for sure they were going to drop down 3 or 4 spots, and then pick him). Oh well. Looking at all the other "expert" mock drafts (not that I am an expert) and I see just about everyone else did pretty poorly as well. That kind of year, I guess. In my own defense (you spin me right round baby, right round), 4 of my "misses" were taken within one spot of where I had them going. What is they say about horseshoes and hand grenades?

[seventeen]

BadCompany said:

What is they say about horseshoes and hand grenades?

They both hurt if you miss the pin.