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Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Oct 28, 2004 20:05:10 GMT -5
Still can't speculate on the "at least one team" eh? And I really thought you were going to do it, I really did... Why ruin the suspense? The off-season doesn't look to be getting shorter any time soon. |
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Post by seventeen on Oct 28, 2004 20:24:24 GMT -5
My, my, so many points, I couldn't read them all.
I compare our drafting Kostitsyn to the Islanders drafting of Mike Bossy and the Nordiques drafting of Sakic. Both those teams got arguably the best player in their drafts at spot 15. They both had 'issues', with Bossy it being his courage and with Sakic, it being size. Every one of the teams who drafted ahead of them (including Montreal who took Mark Napier at #10 (there were something like 8 right wingers drafted ahead of Bossy....8!) thought they were getting a better player or at least a good player for the risk. the Islanders, however were lucky enough to be at spot 15, where the danger in making that high risk pick, was less embarrassing. Same thing with Sakic. When you look back at that draft, there were some decent guys there (Turgeon at #1) but Sakic would be the cream. Again Quebec was lucky to be in the right spot. As I think we were last year.
PS. Guess who went one spot ahead of Sakic? None other than one of my favourite whipping boys, ole Stephane Q. Would Boston like that pick back?
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Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Oct 28, 2004 20:28:26 GMT -5
A little light bedtime reading for BC: Since the last time we took a shot in the dark at who the Thrashers will have a chance to draft, it has become cloudier than ever. However, with more certainty in some areas. If Florida, who holds the first pick in the draft, does not trade the pick then the Panthers will likely select forward Eric Staal, who is ranked the number one skater by Central Scouting.
If Eric Staal goes number one overall to the Panthers, then Carolina will be on the clock and would likely select goaltender Marc Andre Fleury, even though the Canes drafted a goalie, Cam Ward,š in the first round of the 2002 NHL Entry Draft. Currently drafting third, the Pittsburgh Penguins would like nothing better than to move ahead of the Hurricanes in the draft to grab Marc Andre Fleury and are said to be dangling forward Martin Straka.
In the 2002 NHL Entry Draft, the Panthers also held the first overall pick and swapped it with Columbus, who was picking third overall behind Atlanta. The Blue Jackets selected Rick Nash first overall, and the Panthers gave Atlanta compensation in exchange for Atlanta not selecting Jay Bouwmeester. This scenario could happen again this year. The Panthers may trade the number one overall to the Penguins for the third overall and something else, but if this happens, Carolina would likely covet gifted forward Eric Staal, leaving the Panthers in a curious situation.
Do they, 1) give the Hurricanes compensation to not draft Eric Staal, or 2) get the next best available player if Carolina selects Staal at number two overall. If the first scenario takes place then Carolina would likely draft Russian forward Nikolai Zherdev. However, it is more likely that the latter of the two will happen, and the Panthers will select Nikolai Zherdev, while the Canes get Eric Staal.
Well, those are your certainties as those players are likely to go one, two and three in some order. Then again, its the NHL Draft, so nothing is certain until it actually happens, as other teams like the Philadelphia Flyers may be trying to trade up to select goaltending phenom Marc Andre Fleury.
Another of those so called "certainties" are the Nashville Predators at number seven overall. As much as General Manager David Poile has tried to "hide his cards" and make it uncertain who he covets in this years draft, there is no denying he wants to get his hands on big defenseman Braydon Coburn of the Western Hockey League, and it is likely that he will still be available at seventh overall. "Watching him play is like watching a video game. He can go straight, forward, backward or side-to-side equally well, but what sets him apart from a lot of people is his character. He's a leader at 17, he wants to be the best and he pushes himself. He demands so much from himself it makes people around him better...Someday, Braydon's going to have a letter on his jersey with an NHL team," says Coburn's coach Mike Williamson.
Drafting fourth, fifth, and sixth are the Blue Jackets, Sabres and Sharks. This is where the draft gets very cloudy, and can take many turns. Players who could be taken with these picks include forwards Milan Michalek, Thomas Vanek, Dustin Brown, Nathan Horton, Andrei Kastsitsyn and defenseman Ryan Suter.
Andrei Kastsitsyn is the biggest wild card in the draft. Kastsitsyn made scout's mouths water after an incredible showing at the World Junior Championships in Halifax with seven goals and three assists in eight games, but he has one major drawback that was unknown at that time. He suffers from epilepsy. He is good enough to go in the top ten, maybe even top five to a couple of teams, however, because of his epilepsy, he could drop out of the top 15 or even top 20 as many teams do not want to take that chance with such a high draft pick.- www.allsports.com/network/content?site=1040&story=42112An add end-um: Exhibit A: "but you can never have enough defenceman".
Exhibit B: "you can't teach size, especially on the wings".
Exhibit C: ""I guess I'd lean towards a North American player, a Canadian player ..."
Canadian, big, and likely a defenceman or a winger seems to be the criteria currently cooking in the gray matter of Calgary's latest general manager.
That would eliminate M.A. Fleury as a goaltender (as if they had a chance anyway), Nikolai Zherdev, Milan Michalek, Thomas Vanek, Andrei Kastsitsyn and Konstantin Glazachev since they are European, and Zach Parise for his lack of size.- www.calgarypuck.com/McGrath_062003.htm |
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Post by turnbuckle on Oct 28, 2004 21:51:03 GMT -5
I have to side with BC on this one. The only "scouting guru" I recall before the draft that insisted Kostitsyn should be a top 10 pick was Woodlief, and he has a reputation in the scouting world for going out on a limb on at least one or two European prospects each year, such as Radulov last season, Kosty in 2003, and Jiri Hudler in 2002. If I'm not mistaken he had Radulov 3rd overall at one point last season, and Hudler was rated as a top ten pick by Woodlief as well even though all of the scouts I talked to at the time had him pegged as a second rounder.
I don't recall Bob McKenzie saying Kostitstyn was a sure-fire top ten pick if not for the health concerns; in fact he had Getzlaf and others rated ahead of him entering the draft. During the draft on TSN, at no point before Kostitsyn was selected did Bob say the team in front of the Habs would or should pick Kostitsyn. Only after he was picked did Bob mention that health concerns may have led some teams to shy away from him.
Every notable draft ranking list except for RLR's final ranking had Kostitsyn ranked between 11-20. I also don't believe any of the teams who picked ahead of the Habs would trade their picks for Kostitsyn today; each of the top nine picks bring intangibles that made them more attractive to the teams that selected them at the time, and those same intangibles ring true today.
In the cases of Phaneuf, Coburn, Michalek, Horton, Suter, superior defensive ability, size and agressiveness were all taken into consideration, not to mention that they're all skilled players as well. Zherdev, Vanek and Staal were projected by most scouts to have superior offensive upside to Kostitsyn, the main reason they were in the top ten of everyone's lists.
I don't think an epileptic condition would scare off a team if they truly liked the player, and that's what happened in the Habs' case. They even underwent further tests with Dr. Mulder; evidence that the Habs liked the player, moreso than any other team. The teams that picked in front of the Habs had other players they liked more; so going through "special medical testing" with Kostitsyn at the combine wasn't deemed necessary. Eveyone's happy.
If there were concerns about Kostitsyn, I would suggest that they extended past his health. Let's not forget that Kostitstyn had limited viewing, and that posed a problem for some scouts that I talked to, only having seen him at junior tournaments if at all.
More than one NHL executive has admitted to me that he really has to like a "Russian" player to consider drafting him in the first round over a North American player of similar offensive ability. There are often concerns over his willingness to compete physically and defensively on the North American rinks; Ovechkin being the exception to the rule. Look at the top Russian forward picks in recent drafts (other than Ovechkin) - Zherdev, Kosty, Radulov, Kovalchuck (more for his defensive play than physical play), Semin, Frolov, Yakubov, Chistov, Smirnov, Svitov, Vorobiev, Alexeev. None of those players are noted for their defensive ability; in fact several haven't made the cut in the NHL yet because of it.
There's also worries about getting him over to play in North America sooner rather than later; NHL teams have more problems with Russian teams than pro clubs in any other country; that's no secret.
I expected Kosty to go to New York at number 12 (my first "choice was Getzlaf) - the Habs surprised me with their "gamble", but I can't say I'm disappointed so far; he looks like he's got the goods.
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Post by seventeen on Oct 28, 2004 22:54:22 GMT -5
I have to side with BC on this one. The only "scouting guru" I recall before the draft that insisted Kostitsyn should be a top 10 pick was Woodlief... Hey, what about me?! I was right in there like a dirty shirt.  Just because I haven't published my memoirs yet....yeesh. |
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Post by BadCompany on Oct 29, 2004 6:25:52 GMT -5
A little light bedtime reading for BC: Since the last time we took a shot in the dark at who the Thrashers will have a chance to draft, it has become cloudier than ever. However, with more certainty in some areas. If Florida, who holds the first pick in the draft, does not trade the pick then the Panthers will likely select forward Eric Staal, who is ranked the number one skater by Central Scouting.
If Eric Staal goes number one overall to the Panthers, then Carolina will be on the clock and would likely select goaltender Marc Andre Fleury, even though the Canes drafted a goalie, Cam Ward,š in the first round of the 2002 NHL Entry Draft. Currently drafting third, the Pittsburgh Penguins would like nothing better than to move ahead of the Hurricanes in the draft to grab Marc Andre Fleury and are said to be dangling forward Martin Straka.
In the 2002 NHL Entry Draft, the Panthers also held the first overall pick and swapped it with Columbus, who was picking third overall behind Atlanta. The Blue Jackets selected Rick Nash first overall, and the Panthers gave Atlanta compensation in exchange for Atlanta not selecting Jay Bouwmeester. This scenario could happen again this year. The Panthers may trade the number one overall to the Penguins for the third overall and something else, but if this happens, Carolina would likely covet gifted forward Eric Staal, leaving the Panthers in a curious situation.
Do they, 1) give the Hurricanes compensation to not draft Eric Staal, or 2) get the next best available player if Carolina selects Staal at number two overall. If the first scenario takes place then Carolina would likely draft Russian forward Nikolai Zherdev. However, it is more likely that the latter of the two will happen, and the Panthers will select Nikolai Zherdev, while the Canes get Eric Staal.
Well, those are your certainties as those players are likely to go one, two and three in some order. Then again, its the NHL Draft, so nothing is certain until it actually happens, as other teams like the Philadelphia Flyers may be trying to trade up to select goaltending phenom Marc Andre Fleury.
Another of those so called "certainties" are the Nashville Predators at number seven overall. As much as General Manager David Poile has tried to "hide his cards" and make it uncertain who he covets in this years draft, there is no denying he wants to get his hands on big defenseman Braydon Coburn of the Western Hockey League, and it is likely that he will still be available at seventh overall. "Watching him play is like watching a video game. He can go straight, forward, backward or side-to-side equally well, but what sets him apart from a lot of people is his character. He's a leader at 17, he wants to be the best and he pushes himself. He demands so much from himself it makes people around him better...Someday, Braydon's going to have a letter on his jersey with an NHL team," says Coburn's coach Mike Williamson.
Drafting fourth, fifth, and sixth are the Blue Jackets, Sabres and Sharks. This is where the draft gets very cloudy, and can take many turns. Players who could be taken with these picks include forwards Milan Michalek, Thomas Vanek, Dustin Brown, Nathan Horton, Andrei Kastsitsyn and defenseman Ryan Suter.
Andrei Kastsitsyn is the biggest wild card in the draft. Kastsitsyn made scout's mouths water after an incredible showing at the World Junior Championships in Halifax with seven goals and three assists in eight games, but he has one major drawback that was unknown at that time. He suffers from epilepsy. He is good enough to go in the top ten, maybe even top five to a couple of teams, however, because of his epilepsy, he could drop out of the top 15 or even top 20 as many teams do not want to take that chance with such a high draft pick.- www.allsports.com/network/content?site=1040&story=42112An add end-um: Exhibit A: "but you can never have enough defenceman".
Exhibit B: "you can't teach size, especially on the wings".
Exhibit C: ""I guess I'd lean towards a North American player, a Canadian player ..."
Canadian, big, and likely a defenceman or a winger seems to be the criteria currently cooking in the gray matter of Calgary's latest general manager.
That would eliminate M.A. Fleury as a goaltender (as if they had a chance anyway), Nikolai Zherdev, Milan Michalek, Thomas Vanek, Andrei Kastsitsyn and Konstantin Glazachev since they are European, and Zach Parise for his lack of size.- www.calgarypuck.com/McGrath_062003.htmOr early morning, whatever. So... Umm, sorry, missed your point. Aside from missing on a lot of picks (as most drafts do - they are impossible to pick), like the "certaintity" that Nashville would take Braydon Coburn (they left Coburn and took Suter), I'm not sure what you are trying to say here... (Kostitsyin) is good enough to go in the top ten, maybe even top five to a couple of teams, however, because of his epilepsy, he could drop out of the top 15 or even top 20 as many teams do not want to take that chance with such a high draft pick.So, he didn't drop out of the top 15, or even top 20, "because of his epilepsy" but instead went in the top 10, where he was "good enough to go." Seems to me his medical condition played no part in his selection... Good enough to go top 10, went top 10... |
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Post by BadCompany on Oct 29, 2004 8:09:10 GMT -5
Every notable draft ranking list except for RLR's final ranking had Kostitsyn ranked between 11-20. I also don't believe any of the teams who picked ahead of the Habs would trade their picks for Kostitsyn today; each of the top nine picks bring intangibles that made them more attractive to the teams that selected them at the time, and those same intangibles ring true today. In the cases of Phaneuf, Coburn, Michalek, Horton, Suter, superior defensive ability, size and agressiveness were all taken into consideration, not to mention that they're all skilled players as well. Zherdev, Vanek and Staal were projected by most scouts to have superior offensive upside to Kostitsyn, the main reason they were in the top ten of everyone's lists. That's exactly my point (summed up in two paragraphs, as opposed to my usual 12 - I have to learn how to do that). Its not knock against Kostitsyin, who I personally think is Montreal's best prospect (though I have only seen him once). Just so happens that there were nine other players who were just as good, and in many cases, better than him. Whether he has epilepsy or not doesn't change that. |
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Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Oct 29, 2004 9:33:40 GMT -5
I haven't trimmed my fingernails yet. ...Only after he was picked did Bob mention that health concerns may have led some teams to shy away from him. Uh-huh. Maybe. Maybe not. Other teams may have had other players who they'd seen more (but now I'm getting into the efficacy of scouting departments throughout the league; an interesting though tangental topic). Another reason to gloss over a recommendation to select Kostitsyn. "Harry says we really oughta grab this kid, he's the real deal, his fits shouldn't be a problem. Anyone else got anything to add? No, eh? OK..." "Fire" and "intensity" were two words Woodlief used on more than one occasion to describe Kostitsyn's play. However, it sounds like "Russian" and "epilepsy" won the vote at most teams' scouting staff meetings. Ah, the third strike required to cross Kostitsyn's name off the top of your list from the scout on your team who actually evaluated him. * Sorry to have butchered your very eloquent post. Seems to largely support what BC was saying before he blew a gasket. However, unless there is actual proof in the form of published interviews on the subject with draft team members from clubs who picked before the Habs, or scans of these clubs' draft lists, I must stick to my gun. |
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Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Oct 29, 2004 9:40:08 GMT -5
Or early morning, whatever. So... Umm, sorry, missed your point. Aside from missing on a lot of picks (as most drafts do - they are impossible to pick), like the "certaintity" that Nashville would take Braydon Coburn (they left Coburn and took Suter), I'm not sure what you are trying to say here... (Kostitsyin) is good enough to go in the top ten, maybe even top five to a couple of teams, however, because of his epilepsy, he could drop out of the top 15 or even top 20 as many teams do not want to take that chance with such a high draft pick.So, he didn't drop out of the top 15, or even top 20, "because of his epilepsy" but instead went in the top 10, where he was "good enough to go." Seems to me his medical condition played no part in his selection... Good enough to go top 10, went top 10... The top 10 and top five included teams other than the Habs. As turnbuckle pointed out in his calmly constructed prose, the Habs were the only team to look deeply into Kostitsyn's medical condition. The other teams heard the word "epilepsy" and backed off. Have a nice day! |
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Post by BadCompany on Oct 29, 2004 10:09:44 GMT -5
(Kostitsyin) is good enough to go in the top ten, maybe even top five to a couple of teams, however, because of his epilepsy, he could drop out of the top 15 or even top 20 as many teams do not want to take that chance with such a high draft pick.The top 10 and top five included teams other than the Habs. As turnbuckle pointed out in his calmly constructed prose, the Habs were the only team to look deeply into Kostitsyn's medical condition. The other teams heard the word "epilepsy" and backed off. Have a nice day! Lots of "mays" in your posts... Goes with the "apparentlys" I guess. Got any "perhaps" to include? Turnbuckle made no such mention of any other team "hearing the word epilespy and backing off." Quite the contrary. He said that other teams "that picked in front of the Habs had other players they liked more; so going through "special medical testing" with Kostitsyn at the combine wasn't deemed necessary." Which was my point. The epilepsy had nothing to do with them not picking him. They liked other players more, knew the other players were going to be available, and saw no need to waste everyone's time by sending their doctor to examine Kostitsyin any further. No epilepsy concerns whatsoever. |
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Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Oct 29, 2004 10:58:34 GMT -5
The mouldy Woodlief said: Kyle Woodlief: Andrei Kastsitsyn was in Red Line Report's first round in our pre-season report last August, had already moved into our top 15 by November, and was among our top five after the World Jrs. in Halifax. Frankly, if you take away the concerns over his epilepsy and potential back problem, he's clearly the best player in this year's draft -- period. - www.tsn.ca/nhl/draft/your_call.asp?messageId=218644&hubname=nhl-draft* Sports Illustrated: Kastsitsyn made his debut in the top Russian league this season and didn't look out of place. He was the dominant player on Belarus' overmatched squad at the World Juniors, but his stock may slip because some teams are worried about the fact he suffers from epilepsy. Without the medical concerns, he may have been a top-10 pick.- sportsillustrated.cnn.com/hockey/news/2003/06/03/mock_draft/* Sporting News: The Canadiens' doctors say don't worry about the epilepsy (which might have been misdiagnosed) or back injury, just look at his talent and make the decision. If all of the teams had done that, the skilled winger from Belarus would have gone higher.- i.tsn.com/voices/kara_yorio/20030622a-p.html* hockey-stats.com: Andrei Kastsitsyn, a six-foot forward from Belarus, was taken 10th by the Montreal Canadiens. A natural goal scorer, and fast, Kastsitsyn created worries when he had a seizure during his season with the Central Army team in Moscow. Subsequent tests showed he did not have epilepsy as feared.
"We're satisfied that any kinds of problems are either minor or will be resolved," said GM Bob Gainey. "He was on our list higher than 10th."- www.hockey-stats.com/news/A-2003-06-21-2.shtml* Pittsburg Post-Gazette: One of the most intriguing young players, though seemingly a long shot unless the Penguins trade down, is Russian winger Andrei Kastsitsyn. He enhanced his credentials with a strong showing at the world junior championships, and even the Penguins' official Web site has suggested he might be selected.
Kastsitsyn's stock could tumble, however, because word has leaked out that he has epilepsy.
He has too much potential for teams to ignore, but some might be wary of investing an early first-round choice in him. Especially in a year when, by all accounts, the talent pool is as deep as it has been in a long time.- www.post-gazette.com/penguins/20030602pensnot0602p6.asp |
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Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Oct 29, 2004 11:04:24 GMT -5
Turnbuckle made no such mention of any other team "hearing the word epilespy and backing off." I didn't claim that he had said that. I said that in a sentence separate from my comment on turnbuckle's remark. Speculation. No proof. But at least consistent with your theory. Of course my equally sound theory is just the opposite. |
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Post by BadCompany on Oct 29, 2004 11:21:41 GMT -5
I didn't claim that he had said that. I said that in a sentence separate from my comment on turnbuckle's remark. Speculation. No proof. But at least consistent with your theory. Of course my equally sound theory is just the opposite. Nice try, but you paired the two sentences together, implying that they are one and the same idea. Otherwise, you would have started a new paragraph. As for your theory, its nice, but I have yet to see anything remotely close to proof. In fact, all the articles you quote seem to contradict your post... The mouldy Woodlief said: Kyle Woodlief: Andrei Kastsitsyn was in Red Line Report's first round in our pre-season report last August, had already moved into our top 15 by November, and was among our top five after the World Jrs. in Halifax. Frankly, if you take away the concerns over his epilepsy and potential back problem, he's clearly the best player in this year's draft -- period. - www.tsn.ca/nhl/draft/your_call.asp?messageId=218644&hubname=nhl-draft Yep, Woodlief loves him. Sports Illustrated: Kastsitsyn made his debut in the top Russian league this season and didn't look out of place. He was the dominant player on Belarus' overmatched squad at the World Juniors, but his stock may slip because some teams are worried about the fact he suffers from epilepsy. Without the medical concerns, he may have been a top-10 pick.- sportsillustrated.cnn.com/hockey/news/2003/06/03/mock_draft/ He was a top 10 pick. So I guess there were no medical concerns, right? Sporting News: The Canadiens' doctors say don't worry about the epilepsy (which might have been misdiagnosed) or back injury, just look at his talent and make the decision. If all of the teams had done that, the skilled winger from Belarus would have gone higher.- i.tsn.com/voices/kara_yorio/20030622a-p.html The Canadiens doctor's said that? When did they become scouts? hockey-stats.com: Andrei Kastsitsyn, a six-foot forward from Belarus, was taken 10th by the Montreal Canadiens. A natural goal scorer, and fast, Kastsitsyn created worries when he had a seizure during his season with the Central Army team in Moscow. Subsequent tests showed he did not have epilepsy as feared.
"We're satisfied that any kinds of problems are either minor or will be resolved," said GM Bob Gainey. "He was on our list higher than 10th."- www.hockey-stats.com/news/A-2003-06-21-2.shtml Of course he was. "He does everything," Clarke said. "Kills penalties, blocks shots, takes face-offs. We never felt he would fall that far in the draft to us, so we think we're lucky to get him."www.philly.com/mld/philly/sports/6143885.htm“We didn’t think we were getting Coburn yesterday,” Thrashers General Manager Don Waddell said of the pick. “We had him third on our list and we were very pleased to be getting him eighth.” www.hockeysfuture.com/prospect.php?pid=3086In fact, Nashville was shocked that Suter was still around at No. 7. According to the team's general manager, David Poilenhl.com/futures/2003draft/nashville_party062103.htmlAnd so on. Pittsburg Post-Gazette: One of the most intriguing young players, though seemingly a long shot unless the Penguins trade down, is Russian winger Andrei Kastsitsyn. He enhanced his credentials with a strong showing at the world junior championships, and even the Penguins' official Web site has suggested he might be selected.
Kastsitsyn's stock could tumble, however, because word has leaked out that he has epilepsy.
He has too much potential for teams to ignore, but some might be wary of investing an early first-round choice in him. Especially in a year when, by all accounts, the talent pool is as deep as it has been in a long time.- www.post-gazette.com/penguins/20030602pensnot0602p6.aspPicking him 10th overall is not an early-first round choice? |
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Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Oct 29, 2004 11:43:36 GMT -5
Nice try, but you paired the two sentences together, implying that they are one and the same idea. Otherwise, you would have started a new paragraph. Did I? My mistake. I'm glad I clarified the nature of that paragraph, then. Not at all. Depends on what perspective one reads them from, it seems. As for proof, I'll say the same for your point of view. Some cleverly written, albeit wordy, arguments but no real from-the-horse's-mouth proof. Shall we dance? |
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Post by blaise on Oct 29, 2004 12:23:48 GMT -5
My thoughts on this matter proceed along the lines of Bad Company's. Most of his debate with M. B-E focuses on pre-draft assessments by outsiders. BC mentions that most outside experts would still not change their opinions of Kostsitsyn whereas his opponent relies selectively on outdated reports (pre-June 2003) and on anecdotal accounts by fans and others who are partial to the young player. Let's look at what has happened since the 2003 draft. Several of those draftees have played in the NHL or the AHL. No one in the #1-9 subgroup has looked bad, although I don't approve of what's been done with Fleury.
Since coming to North America Kostitsyn has attended the preseason camps and is now playing in the AHL, where his stats are not extraordinary. Because of his rawness he's not been accorded savior status with the Bulldogs. He's displayed unusual talent, including a great shot, but I doubt Jarvis, Timmins, or Savard would pronounce him as far advanced as Staal, Horton, Vanek, Zherdev, or Phaneuf--or even Parise or Patrice Bergeron. No one would deny he needs more coaching and experience before he's deemed ready for the Habs. His talent simply doesn't override it at this point. It's not unreasonable to predict that we won't see him in an NHL game until the middle of the 2005-06 season, when he might be brought up for a cup of coffee in the manner of Higgins, Balej, and Plekanec this past season. Others in his draft class will have made their mark before then.
The bottom line: Kostitsyn was a fine pick, and I have no complaint with it, but the case for extrapolating him to the head of the class hasn't nearly been made. Moreover, the vast majority of fans would probably have been content if the Habs had drafted Staal, Horton, Vanek, Zherdev, Coburn, or Phaneuf instead. I recall a number of pleas for Suter, Carter, Getzlaf, Parise, and even Bernier (ugh).
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Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Oct 29, 2004 13:27:05 GMT -5
...Most of his debate with M. B-E focuses on pre-draft assessments by outsiders. BC mentions that most outside experts would still not change their opinions of Kostsitsyn whereas his opponent relies selectively on outdated reports (pre-June 2003) and on anecdotal accounts by fans and others who are partial to the young player. He is responding to the attacks made by BC against his assertion that Kostitsyn's medical condition caused him to slip to the Habs who picked at the 10th position in the draft. Any developments after the draft, though of interest as topics of discussion external to that at hand, are immaterial and diversionary. Since the draft was held in June 2003 it is logical that information published prior to the draft be used in gauging the impact of Kostitsyn's health on the position at which he was consequently selected in the draft. There is nothing at all unusual or unseemly about marshalling information to support one's point of view. In fact it is the normal course of action to take when making a point or defending a position. That certain sources waxed enthusiastic about Kostitsyn merely underlines the high esteem in which his skills as a hockey player were/are held. M. Beaux-Eaux still awaits substantive proof of BC's counter-assertion that not one team that picked before the Habs in the 2003 draft waived the opportunity to select Kostitsyn because of his epilepsy. Until such time M. Beaux-Eaux shall refrain from further comment; unless it should come to pass that he does obtain concrete evidence that a team that picked ahead of the Habs did indeed not select Kostitsyn due to his illness. IF that should happen he shall with much joy share that information with all. - as per the law firm of Fatjo, Smutko and Wigglesworth. |
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Post by blaise on Oct 29, 2004 13:55:52 GMT -5
All well and good, but his recent definitive diagnosis and treatment for seizures have not elevated his performance. Do you think that what Kostitsyn has shown since his arrival equals or surpasses the performances of the nine players drafted before him in 2003? Do you believe the scouts would rerate him based on his AHL games thus far? Mind you, I am not being dismissive of Kostsitsyn. He probably has the greatest untapped talent of anyone currently in the Habs organization, and I agree that he will eventually play on a top line in Montréal, but that doesn't necessarily project to the entire 2003 rookie crop. It's worth reviewing those other young men on an individual basis to see if Kostsitsyn really is better. As I said in my previous post, he's still raw. He offers decent size, a great shot, and fine skating but isn't the biggest, strongest, or fastest of the bunch, and he doesn't have the on-ice awareness of an Eric Staal or the power of a Nathan Horton or Thomas Vanek, for example. Put another way, he's not precocious, that is, a player who belies his youth the way Sidney Crosby is said to be.
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Habsinthe
Rookie
"Jadis, si je me souviens bien, ma vie ?tait un festin o? s'ouvraient tous les coeurs..."
Posts: 16
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Post by Habsinthe on Oct 29, 2004 14:47:45 GMT -5
As I said in my previous post, he's still raw. He offers decent size, a great shot, and fine skating but isn't the biggest, strongest, or fastest of the bunch, and he doesn't have the on-ice awareness of an Eric Staal or the power of a Nathan Horton or Thomas Vanek, for example. Put another way, he's not precocious, that is, a player who belies his youth the way Sidney Crosby is said to be. January 5, 2003 HALIFAX, NOVA SCOTIA -- The World Junior Championship is hockey's ultimate coming-out party and here's a look at some of the individuals who stood out in the 10-team tournament: ...Andrei Kastsitsyn, Belarus: He could be sleeper of the upcoming draft. With very little in the way of supporting players around him, he dominated each and every shift he took at the World Junior Championship, despite taking a constant mugging. If Belarus had more players like him, or more who tried as hard as he did, then the country would have not gone winless and been relegated to the world B Pool. - www.nhl.com/intheslot/read/juniors/wjc/top10_010503.html |
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Post by BadCompany on Oct 29, 2004 15:01:20 GMT -5
He is responding to the attacks made by BC against his assertion that Kostitsyn's medical condition caused him to slip to the Habs who picked at the 10th position in the draft. Any developments after the draft, though of interest as topics of discussion external to that at hand, are immaterial and diversionary. Au contraire. They are further proof that Kostitsyin's pre-draft rankings were based on his skill, and not his medical condition. If nine guys are rated ahead of him in the draft, and nine guys continue to be rated ahead of him after the draft, then how can one conclude he "fell" on draft day? Since the draft was held in June 2003 it is logical that information published prior to the draft be used in gauging the impact of Kostitsyn's health on the position at which he was consequently selected in the draft. Indeed. And most - not all, but most - of that information stated that Kostitsyin "was a top 10 talent, who might slip because of his epilepsy." Some went so far as to suggest he might slip to 15, maybe even past 20. (thanks for the sources!) But he did in fact go top ten. The information published before the draft was in fact accurate - he was a top ten pick, worthy even. There is nothing at all unusual or unseemly about marshalling information to support one's point of view. In fact it is the normal course of action to take when making a point or defending a position. That certain sources waxed enthusiastic about Kostitsyn merely underlines the high esteem in which his skills as a hockey player were/are held. Indeed. That nine other players are also waxed over enthusiastically is no knock on Kostitsyin. M. Beaux-Eaux still awaits substantive proof of BC's counter-assertion that not one team that picked before the Habs in the 2003 draft waived the opportunity to select Kostitsyn because of his epilepsy. I have provided much evidence, including quotes from GMs who were quite happy to get the guys they picked before Kostitsyin, pre-draft rankings clearly indicating that the players picked ahead of Kostitsyin were better perceived, even before the epilepsy, and post-draft rankings indicating that said players continue to be better percieved, thus justifying their being picked ahead of Kostitsyin. I even went out on a limb, and described the players, and why I think they were better. On the other hand, despite much prodding, you have been unable - unwilling? - to even speculate on which teams may have passed on Kostitsyin. Apparently. Perhaps. In fact, you ignore all evidence to the contrary, that states the nine players would have been picked anyways (though you do seem quite happy to publish articles that support such a position, strangely enough). By your own published information, Kostitsyin was: * a worthy top ten pick * ranked in the 10-15 by most pre-draft rankings, mock drafts, and waxing columnists (Kyle Woodlief aside) * speculated to perhaps, maybe, could, fall to the 15th to 20th picks, maybe even later. Yet he was picked top 10, right where his talent level said he should have been picked, and ahead of where most of the "he might slip" people thought he would be picked. How do you reconcile that information? Until such time M. Beaux-Eaux shall refrain from further comment; unless it should come to pass that he does obtain concrete evidence that a team that picked ahead of the Habs did indeed not select Kostitsyn due to his illness. IF that should happen he shall with much joy share that information with all. - as per the law firm of Fatjo, Smutko and Wigglesworth. Ah, but its your assertion that is under fire, not mine (though I have defended my position quite well, if I do say so myself). I challenged your assertion, which you "insisted" on, and you have been unable to provide any sort of information - even speculative - as to what team's medical staff was so incompetent that they urged their general manager to pass on a superior talent to take an inferior player. Anyways, I'm off to lands unknown, mythically labelled the "real world." Have fun! |
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Habsinthe
Rookie
"Jadis, si je me souviens bien, ma vie ?tait un festin o? s'ouvraient tous les coeurs..."
Posts: 16
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Post by Habsinthe on Oct 29, 2004 15:42:58 GMT -5
Au contraire. They are further proof that Kostitsyin's pre-draft rankings were based on his skill, and not his medical condition. If nine guys are rated ahead of him in the draft, and nine guys continue to be rated ahead of him after the draft, then how can one conclude he "fell" on draft day? You are confusing the present with the past. Things can and do change. Though there doesn't seem to be any conclusive, objective proof for your claim that the nine players chosen ahead of Kostitsyn are rated ahead of him. No team would say that they drafted the wrong guy in the first round so soon after the draft. Let's wait the requisite 5 years and see what these fellows are doing then. Top 10 means the range 1 through 10, not just 10th place. In fact a couple of sources mentioned that Kostitsyn was top 5 material, but would likely fall due to his illness. In fact the Penguins hinted on their official site that Kostitsyn was in the mix for their first pick. So, in effect Kostitsyn was tabbed to go anywhere from first to 10th. Obviously he fell out of the top 5 and due to the go ahead from Dr Mulder hung in at 10th place when the Habs called his name. He managed to just stay in the top 10 because the Habs did not let his epilepsy dissuade them from choosing him. You're welcome for sources! Even though you didn't grasp (as I expected that you deliberately wouldn't) the connection between Kostitsyn's slipping in the draft and his epilepsy. To coin a phrase you used earlier in this thread, "What did you expect them to say? That's typical post-draft talk." See my comments above. Who's your editor? As I've said, when I have irrefutable proof I will present it. I fully expect you to do the same viz your contention that no-one passed on Kostitsyn because of his condition. I did, above, and I only had to do it once. Dream on. You're not wearing any magical armour. Of course I would expect you say nothing less about your eloquent diatribes, even though they offer not a shred of evidence to support your claim that no teams avoided Kostitsyn because of his epilepsy. On the other hand I have provided numerous sources warning that Kostitsyn was a top 10 (top 5, even) talent who was likely to fall in the draft, And he did. That's what my research and analysis have led me to conclude. |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Oct 29, 2004 15:52:44 GMT -5
911: Please state your emergency.
HabsRUs: I wish to report a clown cloning.
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Post by blaise on Oct 29, 2004 16:05:00 GMT -5
Au contraire. They are further proof that Kostitsyin's pre-draft rankings were based on his skill, and not his medical condition. If nine guys are rated ahead of him in the draft, and nine guys continue to be rated ahead of him after the draft, then how can one conclude he "fell" on draft day? Indeed. And most - not all, but most - of that information stated that Kostitsyin "was a top 10 talent, who might slip because of his epilepsy." Some went so far as to suggest he might slip to 15, maybe even past 20. (thanks for the sources!) But he did in fact go top ten. The information published before the draft was in fact accurate - he was a top ten pick, worthy even. Indeed. That nine other players are also waxed over enthusiastically is no knock on Kostitsyin. I have provided much evidence, including quotes from GMs who were quite happy to get the guys they picked before Kostitsyin, pre-draft rankings clearly indicating that the players picked ahead of Kostitsyin were better perceived, even before the epilepsy, and post-draft rankings indicating that said players continue to be better percieved, thus justifying their being picked ahead of Kostitsyin. I even went out on a limb, and described the players, and why I think they were better. On the other hand, despite much prodding, you have been unable - unwilling? - to even speculate on which teams may have passed on Kostitsyin. Apparently. Perhaps. In fact, you ignore all evidence to the contrary, that states the nine players would have been picked anyways (though you do seem quite happy to publish articles that support such a position, strangely enough). By your own published information, Kostitsyin was: * a worthy top ten pick * ranked in the 10-15 by most pre-draft rankings, mock drafts, and waxing columnists (Kyle Woodlief aside) * speculated to perhaps, maybe, could, fall to the 15th to 20th picks, maybe even later. Yet he was picked top 10, right where his talent level said he should have been picked, and ahead of where most of the "he might slip" people thought he would be picked. How do you reconcile that information? Ah, but its your assertion that is under fire, not mine (though I have defended my position quite well, if I do say so myself). I challenged your assertion, which you "insisted" on, and you have been unable to provide any sort of information - even speculative - as to what team's medical staff was so incompetent that they urged their general manager to pass on a superior talent to take an inferior player. Anyways, I'm off to lands unknown, mythically labelled the "real world." Have fun! Please reread my post. You misinterpreted it. I said you (BC) were not accepting Beaux-Eaux' contention that Kostitsyn was selected at #10 because the other GMs were wary of his neuroplogical condition and would otherwise have picked him higher. In other words, I agreed with you when you asserted that there is no proof Kostitsyn was downgraded because of the risk. I also agreed with you that others seemed like better prospects purely on hockey grounds, and I named names. Since you had already made those same points my main thrust was that Kostitsyn since his arrival has not outplayed those who were picked ahead of him and has not established his superior potential. You and I seem to agree that he was nevertheless a very desirable pick and will play an important role with the Habs. So, I'm not knocking Kostitsyn. I'm arguing against the inflation of his ability by M. Beaux-Eaux relative to the excellent players picked before him. He's a magna cum laude but not the first in his class. He will be better than Richard Zednik and Michael Ryder, for example, but he will not be a Kovalchuk or Ovechkin or Lafleur. |
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Habsinthe
Rookie
"Jadis, si je me souviens bien, ma vie ?tait un festin o? s'ouvraient tous les coeurs..."
Posts: 16
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Post by Habsinthe on Oct 29, 2004 16:15:21 GMT -5
911: Please state your emergency. HabsRUs: I wish to report a clown cloning. C'est seulement moi, Pierrot. Mon patron étrangle un poulet. Il peut retourner bientôt. Mais peut-être pas. C'est un poulet très grand. |
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Post by BadCompany on Oct 29, 2004 16:17:41 GMT -5
Please reread my post. You misinterpreted it. I said you (BC) were not accepting Beaux-Eaux' contention that Kostitsyn was selected at #10 because the other GMs were wary of his neuroplogical condition and would otherwise have picked him higher. In other words, I agreed with you when you asserted that there is no proof Kostitsyn was downgraded because of the risk. I also agreed with you that others seemed like better prospects purely on hockey grounds, and I named names. Since you had already made those same points my main thrust was that Kostitsyn since his arrival has not outplayed those who were picked ahead of him and has not established his superior potential. You and I seem to agree that he was nevertheless a very desirable pick and will play an important role with the Habs. So, I'm not knocking Kostitsyn. I'm arguing against the inflation of his ability by M. Beaux-Eaux relative to the excellent players picked before him. He's a magna cum laude but not the first in his class. He will be better than Richard Zednik and Michael Ryder, for example, but he will not be a Kovalchuk or Ovechkin or Lafleur. Actually, I was responding to Mr. Bozo. I agree full-heartedly with your post(s). |
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Post by BadCompany on Oct 29, 2004 16:19:31 GMT -5
On the other hand I have provided numerous sources warning that Kostitsyn was a top 10 (top 5, even) talent who was likely to fall in the draft, And he did. That's what my research and analysis have led me to conclude. Thanks! Just proved my point! Numerous sources said he was a top 10 pick, and voila! He was indeed a top 10 pick. As you stated, top 10 ranges from 1 to 10, and one cannot, by definition, have "fallen out of the top 10" if one is picked at #10. Thanks for proving my point! |
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Habsinthe
Rookie
"Jadis, si je me souviens bien, ma vie ?tait un festin o? s'ouvraient tous les coeurs..."
Posts: 16
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Post by Habsinthe on Oct 29, 2004 16:28:22 GMT -5
Thanks! Just proved my point! Numerous sources said he was a top 10 pick, and voila! He was indeed a top 10 pick. As you stated, top 10 ranges from 1 to 10, and one cannot, by definition, have "fallen out of the top 10" if one is picked at #10. Thanks for proving my point! It's a mean old world. You gotta take what you can. Glad to put an exclamation point on your post. Doctor, doctor: It's just fortunate for the Habs that epilepsy prevented him from being scooped up in the 1 to 9 range. |
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Post by blaise on Oct 29, 2004 18:10:24 GMT -5
Really? Suppose Dion Phaneuf hadn't been picked at #9. IMO he would have been a better pickup at #10 than Kostitsyn, and judging by the way he's playing right now even a lot of Habs fans and Kostitsyn boosters would agree. I can't blame it on Savard or Timmins because they never had the opportunity but if they had missed it I would have been disappointed. There was no chance Staal, Horton, or Vanek would have dropped that low, and they were picked 2, 3, and 4. All three of those players will play in the East, so we'll get to see whether Kostitsyn is better. My personal choice would have been Horton because of his size, strength, and position (center).
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Post by roke on Oct 29, 2004 18:55:44 GMT -5
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Post by Habit on Oct 29, 2004 20:22:31 GMT -5
911: Please state your emergency. HabsRUs: I wish to report a clown cloning. For a while I thought Mr. B. logged in with the wrong username! |
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Post by blaise on Oct 29, 2004 21:28:58 GMT -5
For a while I thought Mr. B. logged in with the wrong username! ... or a new nom de plume (intended for the partisans of 19th century French decadent poetry and the plays on words characteristic of James Joyce and our resourceful Mr. Al): absinthe brings to mind Charles Baudelaire, who wrote The Flowers of Evil> Beaux de l'aire > Beaux-d'eaux > Beaux-Eaux |
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