Milroy vs. Balej

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

Bob said:

Balej vs. Shutt
I think Balej is a way better skater while Shutt had unbelievable hands. He could let that shot go from anywhere (somewhat like Ryder but he used his slapshot more and Ryder uses his wrist shot more).

Oh, I recall Shutt as being plenty zippy. Balej too is a shooter, with a hard, generally accurate shot.

Ribeiro vs. a 2nd-tier Gretzky
I guess that is a fair comparison but the Chabot comparison still lingers. Maybe he (Chabot) was more of a 3rd-tier Gretzky.

If the NHL ever decides to let the game open up again (get rid of the trap, the clutch and grab, the hooking etc.) Ribeiro would be a much more valuable player than he is today.

Undoubtedly, but he still managed to out-produce the number one centre on his team last season.

Until then, in a short series, I believe he can be dominated and made less effective than he is during the regular season.

I know Blaise would agree with you on that, and last year it was true.

But it's remarkable what a year's experience can do for a determined player. Ribeiro has convinced me (and apparently Gainey, to the degree that he nearly doubled his salary while keeping him on a short leash) that he is taking his career with the utmost seriousness.

Sigh. It's talk like this that gets me to missing the NHL.

[blaise]

M. said:

I


Balej reminds me more of Shutt, Ribeiro of a second-tier Gretzky.

Shutt obviously didn't skate as well as Balej. He didn't skate as well as his linemate Lemaire (not to mention Lafleur). I believe Shutt had a better arsenal of shots than Balej and had a greater knack for scoring from up close.

I wouldn't consider Ribeiro a second-tier Gretzky. That label would fit Adam Oates much better, judging from his stats. Let's say Ribeiro is a third-tier Gretzky. He'd need to compile a much better record to be on a level with Oates.

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

Blaise said:

Shutt obviously didn't skate as well as Balej. He didn't skate as well as his linemate Lemaire (not to mention Lafleur). I believe Shutt had a better arsenal of shots than Balej and had a greater knack for scoring from up close.

While Shutt may not have had Lemaire or Lafleur's speed (few players did) he was an above average skater.

I wouldn't consider Ribeiro a second-tier Gretzky. That label would fit Adam Oates much better, judging from his stats. Let's say Ribeiro is a third-tier Gretzky. He'd need to compile a much better record to be on a level with Oates.

Of course you are entitled to describe Ribeiro as a third-tier Gretzky, and that would be consistent. I, however will stick with describing him as a second-tier Gretzky.

At age 24
Oates: 76 games, 15-32-47
Ribeiro: 81 games, 20-45-65

[blaise]

Oates went on to have great statistics and was a frequent all-star. A single 65-point season doesn't do it. If you know any really knowledgeable hockey people (that is, more knowledgeable than you and me), ask them for their opinions on this subject.

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

Blaise said:

Oates went on to have great statistics and was a frequent all-star. A single 65-point season doesn't do it.

Of course a career is not based on a single season, we all know that. Ribeiro has only begun his career while Oates' is finished.

What we should all be aware of is that both Oates and Ribeiro began their NHL careers at the same age (24) and Ribeiro had better numbers at that stage.

Prejudging Ribeiro's career is pointless in every sense of the word. Let's wait until he's in the Hall of Fame before passing any final judgement.

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

Blaise said:

If you know any really knowledgeable hockey people (that is, more knowledgeable than you and me), ask them for their opinions on this subject.

Hmmm, how about the Habs scouts who watched him prior to the draft? Or the Habs team at the NHL draft when he was chosen? Or the coach who had the confidence to play him in 81 games and the stones to bench him for one last season? Or the GM who recently nearly doubled his salary based on his 2003-04 season?

You can find their contact info (except for those who have moved on, of course) on the Canadiens official Web site. Let me know what they tell you about Ribeiro.

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

If we could take Balej's speed, Ribeiros puckhandling, Ryders shot, Lockes vision, Begins drive and Dagenais body, we would have another Mario Lemieux. Reality is we can't do that, so we try to utilize what we have with their limitations.
Milroy is a good player who gets the most out of his abilities. He plays hard like a power forward and although 6' isn't small, it's not powerforward size.
Some people buy cars and some lease them. We leased Kovalev for a short term and the Rangers bought Balej for his career. I hope you enjoyed the Boston series. Kovalev shone in the last few games of that series, but didn't impress in the regular season or playoffs until, until he took a slash, stopped playing and checked his own man to give Boston the winning goal. Sure I would like to have him on our roster, but his production never matches his skill and potential. Better than Rucinsky but still leaves something to be desired.
Shutt had excellent speed and it wasn't noticed when he played with Lafleur and Lemaire who both were much smoother skaters. Shutt always looked like his skates were rusted, but his first steps were lightning and his quick release with his linemates creating spaces and feeding him made a very good line.
Chabot was a third tier Gretzky, (not Wayne but his brother Brent (or maybe his sister)). If hockey had the equivalent of the "Harlem Globetrotters" and he played all his games against the Washington Wizards, he would have been great.
Balej toiled in Hossa's shadowin Jr's and later Hamilton until be broke out and the grasshopper surpassed his master. Hossa plays poker with a full house and folds against two pair. Ya gotta love his hands, but he isn't winning the battles.
Most of us posters, picked favorites and now spend our time justifying the selections. I never liked Perezhoegin or Plekanec (not sure why) so when Begin, Locke, Hudler, Bernier, Balej, Alexeev or Hudler experience success I enjoy it.
Hossa and Hainsey could be great, so their failure to produce is frustrating. Komisarek is like the Friendly Giant, big and too nice.
I was not in favor of Chipchura, but have since done a 180 and hope he comes back soon.

[blaise]

M. said:

At age 24
Oates: 76 games, 15-32-47
Ribeiro: 81 games, 20-45-65

Fight fair and don't use selective statistics. They both played in the NHL before the age of 24.

Previous NHL stats for Ribeiro: 64 games, 9-11-20
Previous NHL stats for Oates: 38 games, 9-11-20

Cumulative stats for Ribeiro: 145 games, 29-56-85 0.59 ppg
Cumulative stats for Oates: 114 games, 24-43-77 0.68 ppg

Also, Ribeiro played 159 QMJHL and 121 AHL games, whereas Oates played 98 ECAC games and only 34 AHL games. I would say this gave Ribeiro a competitive advantage entering the NHL.

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

Blaise said:

Oates went on to have great statistics and was a frequent all-star. A single 65-point season doesn't do it. If you know any really knowledgeable hockey people (that is, more knowledgeable than you and me), ask them for their opinions on this subject.

Here I am.

Don't know why Ribeiro and Oates are being compared, two very different players, but:

Oates had a long career with some very good years.
Ribeiro is at the start of a career and so far he has been successful. If Ribs does as well as Oates did, that would be very good. So far he is doing better than Oates did at the same age.
Ribs is very talented and very determined to succeed. His skating and size limits his success, but I really like the guy.

[blaise]

Habs_fan_in_LA said:

Here I am.

Don't know why Ribeiro and Oates are being compared, two very different players, but:

Oates had a long career with some very good years.
Ribeiro is at the start of a career and so far he has been successful. If Ribs does as well as Oates did, that would be very good. So far he is doing better than Oates did at the same age.
Ribs is very talented and very determined to succeed. His skating and size limits his success, but I really like the guy.

He is not doing better if you read my previous post. His ppg at age 24 is actually lower. You should also note what I said about their respective experience prior to entering the NHL.

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

Blaise said:

Fight fair and don't use selective statistics. They both played in the NHL before the age of 24.

Previous NHL stats for Ribeiro: 64 games, 9-11-20
Previous NHL stats for Oates: 38 games, 9-11-20

Cumulative stats for Ribeiro: 145 games, 29-56-85 0.59 ppg
Cumulative stats for Oates: 114 games, 24-43-77 0.68 ppg

Also, Ribeiro played 159 QMJHL and 121 AHL games, whereas Oates played 98 ECAC games and only 34 AHL games. I would say this gave Ribeiro a competitive advantage entering the NHL.

What could be more fair than to compare Oates' and Ribeiro's production in their first full NHL seasons? Which is exactly what I did. Coincindetally each played their first full NHL campaign at age 24. I'm surprised that you didn't notice that when you were looking up their other numbers.

Certainly not much to choose from between the two in the very early days of their respective NHL careers. Let us not forget that Oates enjoyed the benefit of playing at a time when scoring was considerably higher league-wide, whereas Ribeiro labours in the dead puck era.

In his second full NHL season Oates played 63 games and went 14-40-54. Let's see if Ribeiro can top those numbers.

Or we can annul the current season and watch to see if Ribeiro can approach Oates NHL production at age 26 (69 games, 16-62-78) despite losing a season's development to the lockout.

I'm willing to put my money on Mikey.

[Forum Ghost]

M. said:

Or we can annul the current season and watch to see if Ribeiro can approach Oates NHL production at age 26 (69 games, 16-62-78) despite losing a season's development to the lockout.

I'm willing to put my money on Mikey.

Mikey's next NHL season is probably the most important of his early career. I've been a doubter of his in the past, but in the next NHL season, if he can match or better his stats from 2003/04, then he'll make a believer out of me.

78 points would be quite the feat for Ribs to pull off. I would be surprised if he did it. But then again, I was surprised with him getting 65 pts. last season.

[Bob]

Why do these threads deteriorate into threads about players who aren't even part of the topic.

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

Bob said:

Why do these threads deteriorate into threads about players who aren't even part of the topic.

A thread can be composed of many strands. It's the triumph of Imagination over Ratio. Conversation tends to naturally evolve from the original topic. Often it wanders back, and perhaps away again many times during its life span. A lot also depends on the breadth, depth and sustainability of the original topic. It's all good.

[blaise]

M. said:

Can't have one without the other. No shot, no goal.

Unless the player has a big butt that is conducive to rebounds when he habitually plants himself in a strategic location. He could win the Rocket Richard trophy without raising his stick.

[blaise]

M. said:

What could be more fair than to compare Oates' and Ribeiro's production in their first full NHL seasons? Which is exactly what I did. Coincindetally each played their first full NHL campaign at age 24. I'm surprised that you didn't notice that when you were looking up their other numbers.

Certainly not much to choose from between the two in the very early days of their respective NHL careers. Let us not forget that Oates enjoyed the benefit of playing at a time when scoring was considerably higher league-wide, whereas Ribeiro labours in the dead puck era.

In his second full NHL season Oates played 63 games and went 14-40-54. Let's see if Ribeiro can top those numbers.

Or we can annul the current season and watch to see if Ribeiro can approach Oates NHL production at age 26 (69 games, 16-62-78) despite losing a season's development to the lockout.

I'm willing to put my money on Mikey.

I did notice it because you stated it in your original post on the subject. I wonder whether you noticed that in Ribeiro's first full season he played on a high-scoring line (and during Koivu's absence he had even more opportunity). I don't know whom Oates played with but I suspect it wasn't on the first or second line.

Anyway, in 1986-7, the season you use for comparison, Oates went 4-7-11 in 16 playoff games. Even a stubborn cuss like you would have to admit that that's a lot better than 2-1-3 in 11 games, a record worthy of a third or fourth liner. The following season Oates went 8-12-20 in 16 playoff games. In any era those stats would impress me because playoff hockey is a lot tighter than the regular season, thus casting doubt on your "dead puck" rationalization.

Basically, I still see you as selectively manipulating stats to put Ribeiro in the best possible light because you are partial to him. "First full season" indeed! Your hand-is-quicker than the eye move ignores Ribeiro's record prior to 2003-04. I didn't look it up today, but as I recall Ribeiro played 43 games with the Habs in 2001-02 and 52 games in 2002-03 (managing all of 5 goals). I recall that he also appeared briefly in 1999-2000 and 2000-01. That means he was hardly a rookie at the age of 24. In that 2002-03 season Ribeiro played a number of games with Zednik as one of his linemates (I know it because I saw some of them), so he wasn't 100% saddled with untalented goons. Of course it's established fact that Therrien didn't have enough confidence in him to dress him for the playoffs, while Zednik thrived without Mikey until he was knocked out by a well-aimed forearm. Somehow I suspect Mr. T would not have hesitated to dress a 23-year-old Oates.

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

Blaise said:

I did notice it because you stated it in your original post on the subject. I wonder whether you noticed that in Ribeiro's first full season he played on a high-scoring line (and during Koivu's absence he had even more opportunity). I don't know whom Oates played with but I suspect it wasn't on the first or second line.

As I noted "high scoring" in 1986-87 and 2003-04 are horses of a different colour.

Oates' Red Wings tallied 260 times, yet finished 2 games under .500. Ribeiro's Habs scored 208 goals and finished 11 games over .500.

Red Wings on the 1986-87 club who finished ahead of Oates in scoring:
Yzerman 31-59-90
Ashton 40-35-75
Gallant 38-34-72
Veitch 13-45-58
Klima 30-23-53
Burr 22-25-47

Habs on the 2003-04 roster who finished ahead of Ribeiro in scoring:
None

Ribeiro led his club, Oates broke in quietly in 7th place on his.

Ribeiro participated in 31.3% (65/208) of his team's scoring, Oates in 18.1% (47/260) of his team's.

At age 24 Ribeiro is ahead of Oates on the curve.

Anyway, in 1986-7, the season you use for comparison, Oates went 4-7-11 in 16 playoff games. Even a stubborn cuss like you would have to admit that that's a lot better than 2-1-3 in 11 games, a record worthy of a third or fourth liner.

That Ribeiro did not have a good first playoff is self-evident. Should the trend continue over a number of years, then it will be a true cause for concern.

I compiled a list of a couple dozen far more illustrious names than "Mike Ribeiro" who he actually out-performed in the 2003-04 playoffs. It can be viewed at the bottom of this thread.

The following season Oates went 8-12-20 in 16 playoff games. In any era those stats would impress me because playoff hockey is a lot tighter than the regular season, thus casting doubt on your "dead puck" rationalization.

Playoff hockey is a toned down version of whatever style of hockey is prevalent in a given season. It's "tightness" is relative.

There is no doubt that scoring during the past few years in the NHL is down. The style of play is considerably more defensive than it was during Oates' career. It is one of the chief complaints fans (and players) have of the game.

Martin St-Louis won the Art Ross trophy with 94 points last season, the lowest total for a league leader since Stan Mikita's 87 points 36 years ago (1968). In the season being used to compare Oates start of his NHL career (1986-87) to Ribeiro's (2003-04), Gretzky won the scoring title with 183 points, almost twice St-Louis' total.

Despite the historical advantage Oates carries I have every confidence that Ribeiro will, when all is said and done, compare favourably with him. Especially if he ends up with as strong a roster surrounding him as Oates had. Michael Ryder ain't no Brett Hull, Cam Neely or Petr Bondra. Yet.

Basically, I still see you as selectively manipulating stats to put Ribeiro in the best possible light because you are partial to him. "First full season" indeed! Your hand-is-quicker than the eye move ignores Ribeiro's record prior to 2003-04.

An argument often used by people when a side-by-side comparison reveals results they had not anticipated or do not want to see.

First full season indeed for both players.

In Ribeiro I see a supremely gifted offensive hockey player who has been improving year-in and year-out, and who is determined to continue doing so. This is only good for the Habs and for Habs fans.

I didn't look it up today, but as I recall Ribeiro played 43 games with the Habs in 2001-02 and 52 games in 2002-03 (managing all of 5 goals). I recall that he also appeared briefly in 1999-2000 and 2000-01. That means he was hardly a rookie at the age of 24.

No claim was made that Ribeiro was a rookie. 43 and 52 games to me are part seasons, no matter the player. Besides, the Habs thought so highly of Ribeiro and/or were so desperate that he was promoted well before he was ready for prime time, unlike Oates who got his first taste of NHL action at age 23.

Nonetheless, at age 24 both Oates and Ribeiro established that they were NHL players to stay.

[blaise]

Oh Beaux-Eaux, I love you but you are an impossibly stubborn man! Was Oates highly regarded by Detroit? Of course he was, but he was in no hurry to go to the NHL. He was signed as a free agent after his college career. Did you know that he attended RPI, a prestigious engineering school that several years later graduated none other than Joé Juneau? (Mike McPhee is another alumnus.) He was an ECAC second all-star in 1984 and an NCAA East first all-star in 1985. He was also named to the 1985 NCAA Championship all-star team. He split his first pro season between Adirondack and Detroit. His AHL record in 1985-86 was 18-28-46 in 34 games. In 2000-01 Ribeiro was 26-40-66 in 74 games with Québec. Of course I would expect you to counter that in the mid-80s the AHL was also a scorer's league, but that's a moot point.

Perhaps you can explain why Ribeiro was left off the THN 2004 top 50 players list when he was coming off his best season. I guess it was because of his playoff performances. He never was a big goal scorer in the playoffs at any level, from the QMJHL on up. His peak was 5-11-16 in 11 games at Rouyn-Noranda. However, right after that he was shunted to Fredericton and amassed 0-1-1 in 5 games. So while his track record of chronic late-season fizzling probably does not mean his 2-1-3 +0 in 11 games for the Habs will be his high water mark, it leaves a question mark about his effectiveness in the playoffs. Maybe he lacks stamina, maybe he can be neutralized by tight checking from burlier opponents, but he has much to prove in his next playoffs. The more robust 18-year-old Patrice Bergeron went 1-3-4 +5 in 7 games for the Bruins and at 19 was the WJC MVP. Who will have the more illustrious career? So far it looks like Bergeron.

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

Blaise said:

Oh Beaux-Eaux, I love you but you are an impossibly stubborn man!

Aw shucks, but that's part of my irresistible charm.

Was Oates highly regarded by Detroit? Of course he was, but he was in no hurry to go to the NHL. He was signed as a free agent after his college career. Did you know that he attended RPI, a prestigious engineering school that several years later graduated none other than Joé Juneau? (Mike McPhee is another alumnus.) He was an ECAC second all-star in 1984 and an NCAA East first all-star in 1985. He was also named to the 1985 NCAA Championship all-star team. He split his first pro season between Adirondack and Detroit. His AHL record in 1985-86 was 18-28-46 in 34 games. In 2000-01 Ribeiro was 26-40-66 in 74 games with Québec. Of course I would expect you to counter that in the mid-80s the AHL was also a scorer's league, but that's a moot point.

I am not here to denigrate Oates, but to praise Ribeiro.

Perhaps you can explain why Ribeiro was left off the THN 2004 top 50 players list when he was coming off his best season.

Too skinny. From Québec.

I guess it was because of his playoff performances. He never was a big goal scorer in the playoffs at any level, from the QMJHL on up. His peak was 5-11-16 in 11 games at Rouyn-Noranda. However, right after that he was shunted to Fredericton and amassed 0-1-1 in 5 games. So while his track record of chronic late-season fizzling probably does not mean his 2-1-3 +0 in 11 games for the Habs will be his high water mark, it leaves a question mark about his effectiveness in the playoffs.

Actually Ribeiro's peak playoff performance was 11 games, 3-20-23 for Québec of the QMJHL in the 1999-2000 post-season. Gretzky-like numbers.

Ribeiro's playoff numbers by league:
QMJHL - 28 games, 11-32-43, 50 PIM
AHL - 17 games, 1-9-10, 25 PIM
NHL - 11 games, 2-1-3, 18 PIM

In the QMJHL and AHL his playoff PPG increased with each subsequent season. I see no reason why that should not also be the case for him in the NHL.

Maybe he lacks stamina, maybe he can be neutralized by tight checking from burlier opponents, but he has much to prove in his next playoffs. The more robust 18-year-old Patrice Bergeron went 1-3-4 +5 in 7 games for the Bruins and at 19 was the WJC MVP. Who will have the more illustrious career? So far it looks like Bergeron.

Experience is a wonderful teacher and Ribeiro has shown that he profits by it. That he should be compared to players like Oates and Bergeron is mark of the respect, however veiled it may be, that he is accorded.

[blaise]

M. said:

Ribeiro's playoff numbers by league:
QMJHL - 28 games, 11-32-43, 50 PIM
AHL - 17 games, 1-9-10, 25 PIM
NHL - 11 games, 2-1-3, 18 PIM

Where are the goals? Missing in action.

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

Blaise said:

Where are the goals? Missing in action.

Now you're being silly.

[blaise]

Blaise said:

He never was a big goal scorer in the playoffs at any level, from the QMJHL on up.

Excuse my silly persistence, but you haven't addressed that particular point.

Furthermore, while Oates is renowned as a great assist man (at the age of 38 he had 69 assists for Washington in 2000-1, a "dead goal" year), he could also sink a few. With Boston in 1992-3 he racked up a 45-97-142 season. Now that's reasonably Gretzky-like (even though he wasn't the only high scorer that season).

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

Blaise said:

Excuse my silly persistence, but you haven't addressed that particular point.

Whether one does the scoring oneself or sets up team-mates to do so doesn't matter, since the end result in both cases is goals for one's team.

Furthermore, while Oates is renowned as a great assist man (at the age of 38 he had 69 assists for Washington in 2000-1, a "dead goal" year), he could also sink a few. With Boston in 1992-3 he racked up a 45-97-142 season. Now that's reasonably Gretzky-like (even though he wasn't the only high scorer that season).

In his 20 season career Oates managed the following:
40+ goal seasons - 1
30-39 goal seasons - 1
20-29 goal seasons - 5
10-19 goal seasons - 9
0-9 goal seasons - 4

In his 3 season (I'll count the two partial seasons as full) career Ribeiro has done the following:
20-29 goal seasons - 1
0-9 goal seasons - 2

*

To sum up my findings during the comparison of Oates and Ribeiro: If Oates is legitimately considered a second-tier Gretzky I see Ribeiro, at this very early stage of his NHL career, as comfortably projecting into that designation as well over the course of time.

[blaise]

Since the returns won't be in for many years, all I can say is, "We'll see." If Ribeiro is capable of doing it, more power to him.

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

Balej: 40 games, 12-15-27, -1, 4 PP goals, 136 shots, 8.8 shot %, 0.68 PPG
Milroy: 41 games, 7-13-20, -6, 5 PP goals, 2 GWG, 55 shots, 12.7 shot %, 0.49 PPG