|
|
Post by CentreHice on May 29, 2015 22:18:13 GMT -5
MacKay Leaving PoliticsThe 4th Harper cabinet minister to not seek re-election....and the 30th Conservative MP to do the same. Does that seem odd?
|
|
|
|
Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jun 1, 2015 10:59:32 GMT -5
I'm wondering what's what with the federal Tories, of late ... Peter McKay walks, too ... I heard on a news show (not sure which one, I'm pretty much fed up with them all) that not only does the timing suck with a fall election looming, but the Tories will be losing McKay's influence in Nova Scotia where the conservatives currently have 4 seats ... the NDP juggernaut is only starting to take off right now and if they keep going, Justin Trudeau may find himself remaining at 3rd-party status ... note; IMO again, I don't know if Trudeau represents the best of the Liberal leaders, but he may be the best Liberal with a chance of winning ... don't ask me who I'd replace him with, because I simply don't know the Liberals that well any more ... anyone ever imagine an NDP government in Alberta, or the federal NDP with 54 seats in Quebec ... having both at the same time represents another signicant era for Canadian politics ... Cheers. |
|
|
|
Post by Polarice on Jun 1, 2015 11:42:42 GMT -5
Not sure if it will ever happen, but I've heard rumblings of the PC's starting up again.
|
|
|
|
Post by franko on Jun 1, 2015 11:49:45 GMT -5
can't see the PCs starting up as anything but a fringe party. McKay knew that with the conservative split the Liberals would continue to run wild, so even with his promise to Orchard realized what had to be done. as to so many Tories jumping ship, I think it also has to do with the new pension rules (yes, colour me cynical). get out now, pension good; get out after October's election, pension still good but not as): by 2017 pension contributions for an MP will rise to nearly $39,000 a year from $11,000 now, he said. Many current MPs will still be able to collect full pension benefits at age 55 but those elected as of 2015 will have to wait until age 65 to receive their full pensions. TO Star |
|
|
|
Post by Polarice on Jun 1, 2015 12:12:25 GMT -5
Agreed....the complaints I'm hearing from the old guard Tories is that they feel that the party has/is moving towards more the Reformer policies.
|
|
|
|
Post by franko on Jun 1, 2015 12:41:26 GMT -5
that's funny, Reap . . . the old Reform guard complains that he is moving too much away from them. Harper must be doing something right: everyone hates him!
|
|
|
|
Post by seventeen on Jun 1, 2015 14:16:43 GMT -5
He certainly likes to consolidate power in his hands alone. That in itself would annoy a lot of old supporters.
|
|
|
|
Post by franko on Jun 1, 2015 15:08:27 GMT -5
if he didn't the Reformers would have their way and there'd be an active push (a more active push) for things more "conservative" -- anti-gay marriage, anti-abortion, anti-just-about-anything-social minded. and if he didn't the Progressives would have the party even more central-less fiscal conservative.
he has tried to find a balance; in order to do so he has had to become near-dicatorial. not saying that's a good thing, just the way he saw it had to be done. it's worked for 10 years but I don't know that he can hold on much longer.
I imagine that this will be his last election. majority; he goes out on top/his own terms. minority; he goes out with a bit of a push/thanks for coming, see you later, glowing thanks until the new leader is elected and then it's "vote for me, I'm not Harper". lose and the knives start to come out, though he resigns before they can.
|
|
|
|
Post by Polarice on Jun 1, 2015 15:40:18 GMT -5
Ya if he looses this fall I can see him stepping down as leader.
|
|
|
|
Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jun 3, 2015 12:59:09 GMT -5
I've developed a cautious side in recent years when reading any of the major news outlets ... however ... the polls are the closest I've seen in quite some time ... Tories @ 30%, NDP @ 29% and the Grits @27% ... can't remember the NDP being as close to the top as they are this year ... I couldn't tell you one way or the other, but I'm hoping these numbers might be indicative of a larger voter turnout ... hope so, anyway ... the polls (link)Cheers. |
|
|
|
Post by franko on Jun 3, 2015 13:55:17 GMT -5
talk to me about polls in September when the electioneering actually starts. right now it's "I hate Harper/I love JT/Mulcair is the only real leader". in September the Conservatives will have to face concerted questions about what they've done in the past 10 years, about the omnibus bills, and about Bill 51 -- and about Truth and Reconciliation. JT will have to answer questions without notes, and they'll have an actual policy to defend rather than saying "we're not the Conservatives" (though that is going to give them votes by itself). Mulcair is going to have to defend policy -- he can do it; he's a great debater/parliamentarian. The question is will he win enough votes from JT to form a minority or will they split the vote again.
I imagine that the polls will hold close until things ramp up . . . that the anti-Harper vote will vacillate between the other two parties and that eventually the real fight will be between Mulcair and Trudeau with the claim "my party is the one to lead Canada/beat Harper" and that there will be some splits, and that in the end the soft vote will go to Harper (reasoning: JT will be seen as not yet ready, and fear that the NDP will channel Bob Rae in Ontario, despite the provincial NDP victory in Alberta).
Count on it -- unless I'm wrong (channeling my inner BC here).
Questions to answer:
Who takes the Maritimes -- the Liberals or the NDP? Can the Conservatives hold on to a couple?
Who takes Quebec -- will the NDP hold on or will the Liberals win enough back to make things serious?
Who takes Ontario? Will the Conservatives hold on to their seats? Who takes the new ones?
Who takes the West? It's pretty blue right now -- will the Orange wave carry on in Alberta?
|
|
|
|
Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 16, 2015 20:15:23 GMT -5
A number of smear adds have been running already ... I'm actually hoping to see a big voter turnout for this one ... the NDP have been making political history in Quebec and Alberta ... they could change the face of the nation if they keep moving in the right direction ... |
|
|
|
Post by seventeen on Jul 16, 2015 22:22:31 GMT -5
We visited on the weekend with friends of ours from Calgary and asked them, "What the hell happened in Alberta?" They laughed. The general thrust is that the populace was quite annoyed with the Conservatives and were hoping for a minority government. It just worked out that enough people voted left that the minority became a majority and surprised even them. C'est la vie.
|
|
|
|
Post by Polarice on Jul 17, 2015 8:47:39 GMT -5
We visited on the weekend with friends of ours from Calgary and asked them, "What the hell happened in Alberta?" They laughed. The general thrust is that the populace was quite annoyed with the Conservatives and were hoping for a minority government. It just worked out that enough people voted left that the minority became a majority and surprised even them. C'est la vie. Yep we screwed up big time in Alberta....Oil companies have put major projects on hold for 5 years.....just when the Conservatives are due to be back in power. |
|
|
|
Post by franko on Jul 17, 2015 8:56:03 GMT -5
We visited on the weekend with friends of ours from Calgary and asked them, "What the hell happened in Alberta?" They laughed. The general thrust is that the populace was quite annoyed with the Conservatives and were hoping for a minority government. It just worked out that enough people voted left that the minority became a majority and surprised even them. C'est la vie. Yep we screwed up big time in Alberta....Oil companies have put major projects on hold for 5 years.....just when the Conservatives are due to be back in power. will it be the Liberals-under-the-guise-of-Conservatives (let's face it, that's what the Alberta Conservative party has become) or will it be the New Conservative Party of Alberta . . .er, the Wild Rose that gets in? |
|
|
|
Post by Polarice on Jul 17, 2015 10:25:58 GMT -5
Yep we screwed up big time in Alberta....Oil companies have put major projects on hold for 5 years.....just when the Conservatives are due to be back in power. will it be the Liberals-under-the-guise-of-Conservatives (let's face it, that's what the Alberta Conservative party has become) or will it be the New Conservative Party of Alberta . . .er, the Wild Rose that gets in? Wild Rose has gained a lot of support since the election, Can't see them winning though. It will be the same party that was previously in power for the last 40 years. |
|
|
|
Post by blny on Jul 17, 2015 20:08:05 GMT -5
I can honestly say, without question, that I completely detest all three party leaders. The result is my vote will be based solely on the representative in my riding that I like the most, and I'll be completely disregarding the rest.
|
|
|
|
Post by franko on Jul 17, 2015 20:28:40 GMT -5
I can honestly say, without question, that I completely detest all three party leaders. The result is my vote will be based solely on the representative in my riding that I like the most, and I'll be completely disregarding the rest. I thought there were 4 party leaders after your vote. |
|
|
|
Post by blny on Jul 17, 2015 20:40:14 GMT -5
I can honestly say, without question, that I completely detest all three party leaders. The result is my vote will be based solely on the representative in my riding that I like the most, and I'll be completely disregarding the rest. I thought there were 4 party leaders after your vote. In my not so humble opinion there are only 3 truly national parties. The Green Party and the Bloq are regional parties at best. I would dearly love for some electoral reform that required a party to meet certain standards to be a federal party. One, must have representatives running in every province and territory and ideally elected. |
|
|
|
Post by franko on Jul 17, 2015 21:39:21 GMT -5
I thought there were 4 party leaders after your vote. In my not so humble opinion there are only 3 truly national parties. The Green Party and the Bloq are regional parties at best. I would dearly love for some electoral reform that required a party to meet certain standards to be a federal party. One, must have representatives running in every province and territory and ideally elected. c'mon, May has run coast to coast! |
|
|
|
Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 17, 2015 21:49:25 GMT -5
I thought there were 4 party leaders after your vote. In my not so humble opinion there are only 3 truly national parties. The Green Party and the Bloq are regional parties at best. I would dearly love for some electoral reform that required a party to meet certain standards to be a federal party. One, must have representatives running in every province and territory and ideally elected. Not trying to pick fly poop from pepper, but the Green Party is national ... Mrs Dis and I voted Green in the last provincial election ... however, I think it's going to be a very tough federal vote this time around ... I won't be voting Liberal just on principle ... no one seems to be taking Trudeau seriously now ... I don't know enough about the federal NDP policies, but I intend on looking them up ... Rex Murphy has given Tomas Mulcair a lot of attention, or so I've noticed ... and the country seems to want Stephen Harper gone ... it's not so much about the party, as it is Harper ... I find that's the focus for a lot of people ... here's what rex said about Mr Mulcair ... note the summary near the end ... |
|
|
|
Post by blny on Jul 17, 2015 22:20:35 GMT -5
I think it's shaping up for a NDP minority. The Green Party's footprint is getting bigger, but I just don't consider them a truly national party yet. To me, they're on the fringes.
|
|
|
|
Post by franko on Jul 18, 2015 7:51:50 GMT -5
yep, the Greens are a fringe national party.
before May, there were a lot of disenfranchised PCs in the party (not sure now); their policies reflected fiscal conservative values, and even some of the social values (though not the biggies: abortion and traditional family). however, when most people think of the Greens they think of environmental Birkenstock-wearing tree-hugging carbon-taxing Prius-drivers. this is where May has failed.
|
|
|
|
Post by franko on Jul 18, 2015 7:55:12 GMT -5
Dis, I still expect a Conservative minority. the Conservative base holds (I actually don't get Harper, pandering to them -- they'll vote for him regardless). NDP/Libs will split the vote in some ridings -- enough that Harper will come in. Once the writ is dropped, the debates take place (Mulcair is a great debater -- advantage him) and people start really looking at his policies the soft NDP vote may retreat.
mind you, I didn't think that Ontario would be in for Wynne's premiership for four years!
|
|
|
|
Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 18, 2015 9:37:16 GMT -5
Dis, I still expect a Conservative minority. the Conservative base holds (I actually don't get Harper, pandering to them -- they'll vote for him regardless). NDP/Libs will split the vote in some ridings -- enough that Harper will come in. Once the writ is dropped, the debates take place (Mulcair is a great debater -- advantage him) and people start really looking at his policies the soft NDP vote may retreat. mind you, I didn't think that Ontario would be in for Wynne's premiership for four years! I can't remember an election where the NDP were 'this close' to forming a federal government of any kind ... in fact, I can't remember an election that could be as unpredictable as this one ... it's in the 'who knows' category ... having said that, I'm still leaning towards a minority PC government ... if the Tories do lose, though, I suspect Stephen Harper will step down ... heck, it wouldn't surprise me to see people support a coalition government given the (seemingly) national Harper-must-go lobby ... the attack ads on Justin Trudeau are lame ... (female voice) "Justin Trudeau; he's just not ready" ... it's almost as if the Tories are being careful not to piss anyone off when it comes to Trudeau ... I think the only thing Trudeau might be able to look forward are votes in Ontario and a few down east (but that's only me guessing, eh) ... he certainly doesn't have the charisma working for him like he had a little while ago ... Tomas Mulcair is getting a lot of attention, but is he getting there on his own laurels, or is he riding Jack Layton's coattails ... doesn't matter either way ... his party is on the rise ... I don't see him holding onto as many seats in Quebec (who knows) but the NDP form the opposition in BC and he sees a provincial government in Alberta ... if nothing else, all three of these are examples of 'voters are capable of anything' which, for me, kind of sums up this election ... the Greens? ... we took the Nestea plunge on them during the last provincial election ... they'll continue to get my vote until a viable option surfaces in Ontario ... the federal election is a different animal, but I'm in a quandary pretty much for the same reasons ... I'm not sold on the leadership of either Muclair or Trudeau, and Harper let me down when he put all of our eggs in one basket by making us an oil-based economy ... he's an economist and, more than anyone, he should know the values of diversifying ... question: will he fix it if he has the chance next time around? ... Cheers. |
|
|
|
Post by franko on Jul 18, 2015 9:56:50 GMT -5
I think this is Harper's last election regardless (I may have said that before). lose? gone, his choice or not. minority? same. majority? go out on top.
I really think that September-October there will be some "sober second thought" re Mulcair. people uncertain about Harper will hold their noses and vote him before Mulcair (the soft vote that is tired of Harper but unsure about NDP policies . . . Alberta and the NDP voice will be pointed to). and yup, the Bloc will do better this time so there'll be fewer NDP seats in Quebec.
oil based economy? I think if the dollar is high you have to go for it and the dollar is low you go with manufacturing . . .though Wynne whined about the petro-dollar and said that it was the problem with Ontario's fortunes but things haven't changed -- because of her high energy policies, which will get even worse with carbon tax, chasing even more businesses south.
|
|
|
|
Post by franko on Jul 18, 2015 16:00:57 GMT -5
Funny thing: family gathering today, the women discussing the election ads and liking the Trudeau not ready add, even though they are DEFINITELY not going to vote for Harper. Entertaining, I guess, but not working
|
|
|
|
Post by PTH on Jul 18, 2015 20:14:26 GMT -5
Funny thing: family gathering today, the women discussing the election ads and liking the Trudeau not ready add, even though they are DEFINITELY not going to vote for Harper. Entertaining, I guess, but not working I suspect the Conservatives are looking to the "middle of the road" voters with those ads: people who wouldn't go all the way to the NPD, but might be tempted by the Liberals. Still, to me that whole campaign seems to be a boost to Mulcair more than anything. But I've never been Conservative nor pro-Harper, so I know I'm biased. (ie, telling me one of two major opponents isn't ready tells me I should vote for the other one, because voting Harper isn't an option I'd ever consider) |
|
|
|
Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 18, 2015 21:09:48 GMT -5
Funny thing: family gathering today, the women discussing the election ads and liking the Trudeau not ready add, even though they are DEFINITELY not going to vote for Harper. Entertaining, I guess, but not working I suspect the Conservatives are looking to the "middle of the road" voters with those ads: people who wouldn't go all the way to the NPD, but might be tempted by the Liberals. Still, to me that whole campaign seems to be a boost to Mulcair more than anything. But I've never been Conservative nor pro-Harper, so I know I'm biased. (ie, telling me one of two major opponents isn't ready tells me I should vote for the other one, because voting Harper isn't an option I'd ever consider) I've voted for the Tories (last two times), the Liberals (before ADSCAM), the NDP (once in the 70's and again just after ADSCAM) and the Greens (zero creditable choices in Ontario's last provincial election) ... there's a large lobby not to elect Trudeau, but there's also a very popular lobby to get Harper out of office ... haven't heard any negative lobby targeting Mulcair and I'm kind of surprised the media hasn't been jumping on that bandwagon ... hoping for two things ... a large voter turnout and for people to really think about their vote this time around ... it will be a difficult choice for me, anyway ... Cheers. |
|
|
|
Post by Lord Bebop on Jul 19, 2015 15:33:44 GMT -5
So guess it's that time to pay attention to federal politics. Not to up to date on the comings and goings the last 4 years in politics but very surprise to see the NDP leading the way. Could change as I don't think the liberals came out with their platform...I think... Kinda glad to have more options this time around as I found the Conservatives and Liberals have become very like minded despite all their politicking lol hopefully the NDP rise will give a new alternative
|
|
