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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2016 18:06:32 GMT -5
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 28, 2016 18:46:40 GMT -5
Heard them talking about on TSN 690 earlier today ... very favourable stats especially outside the first round ... interesting comments ref development ... Cheers. |
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Post by seventeen on Jul 28, 2016 19:00:36 GMT -5
Again it's good to be a little skeptical. In this case they went back a lot of years, which is good for staffs that have been around that long. The part I'm puzzled about us Tampa being worst. Since Yzerman took over they've been very good but that's not considered in this study. I have a high opinion of Timmins and his crew. They're very good especially in the 5th round.  |
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Jul 28, 2016 19:32:06 GMT -5
Heard them talking about on TSN 690 earlier today ... very favourable stats especially outside the first round ... interesting comments ref development ... Cheers. I believe it was Mark Twain who said, "there are liars, damn liars and statisticians!" |
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 28, 2016 19:48:06 GMT -5
Heard them talking about on TSN 690 earlier today ... very favourable stats especially outside the first round ... interesting comments ref development ... Cheers. I believe it was Mark Twain who said, "there are liars, damn liars and statisticians!" AND, they're second (.06%) only behind the Flyers for drafting the most Francophone players out of the QMJHL ...  Cheers. |
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Post by GNick99 on Jul 29, 2016 5:07:01 GMT -5
Been awhile since he's had a good draft though. Puzzling how he misses so many first rounders. Maybe Habs should consider trading their first round pick at draft table? |
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Post by blny on Jul 29, 2016 5:47:03 GMT -5
Been awhile since he's had a good draft though. Puzzling how he misses so many first rounders. Maybe Habs should consider trading their first round pick at draft table? It's been beat pretty hard, but during the Gainey era he had no say. From 2010 (Gauthier's first as GM) to now, our average draft position is 18. Anything from 2013 on is simply too early to cast much opinion on. That said, there's plenty of promise in Juulsen, Scherbak and McCarron and they were all selected in the last third of the first round. Our biggest first round failures since Timmins came on belong to Gainey. None of Leblanc, Tinordi, or Fischer were drafted out of position. They all went more or less where they were expected to go. Of those three, only Tinordi could be legitimately put on Timmins. We're expecting Beaulieu to take a leap forward this year. That's only question mark at this point. Is Beaulieu and everyday NHLer? Yes. IMO, he's top 6 on most teams and top 4 on some. At 17th overall, that's not a wasted pick. |
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Post by Skilly on Jul 29, 2016 6:36:22 GMT -5
Do the same analysis but only use the # of games our picks played for the Montreal Canadiens. While credit has to be given to Timmins for selecting a player like Ryan McDonnagh, the job does not stop with just the selection. I know that may not be fully under Timmins purview, but to me, the Timmins selection is a saw-off : yeah we selected him, yeah he is really good, but we saw no benefit in the selection.
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Post by Gogie on Jul 29, 2016 9:18:28 GMT -5
Heard them talking about on TSN 690 earlier today ... very favourable stats especially outside the first round ... interesting comments ref development ... Cheers. I believe it was Mark Twain who said, "there are liars, damn liars and statisticians!"For the sake of historical accuracy the phrase is actually "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics" and it didn't originate with Mark Twain. As per Wikipedia, "The term was popularised in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Several other people have been listed as originators of the quote, and it is often erroneously attributed to Twain himself." |
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Post by franko on Jul 29, 2016 10:29:06 GMT -5
As per Wikipedia, "The term was popularised in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Several other people have been listed as originators of the quote, and it is often erroneously attributed to Twain himself." as I've suggested on more than one occasion (plagiarizing someone else), "The thing about quotes on the Internet is you cannot confirm their validity" - Abraham Lincoln |
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Jul 29, 2016 10:52:28 GMT -5
I believe it was Mark Twain who said, "there are liars, damn liars and statisticians!"For the sake of historical accuracy the phrase is actually "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics" and it didn't originate with Mark Twain. As per Wikipedia, "The term was popularised in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Several other people have been listed as originators of the quote, and it is often erroneously attributed to Twain himself." I apologize for reliance on my memory instead of vetting the Internet . At my age Alzheimer's takes a toll. I feel like Mrs Trump for plagiarizing Mark Twain who copied Disraeli who may have quoted his butler on the authority Wikapedia. As coach of the UCLA hockey team I often said "skate skate skate shoot shoot shoot" without attribution. |
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Post by Gogie on Jul 29, 2016 10:56:39 GMT -5
As per Wikipedia, "The term was popularised in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Several other people have been listed as originators of the quote, and it is often erroneously attributed to Twain himself." as I've suggested on more than one occasion (plagiarizing someone else), "The thing about quotes on the Internet is you cannot confirm their validity" - Abraham Lincoln I cited Wikipedia for expedience sake. I thought that would be easier than tearing a page out of my Encyclopedia Britannica and sticking it on my monitor for all to see.  |
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Post by blny on Jul 29, 2016 11:05:46 GMT -5
Do the same analysis but only use the # of games our picks played for the Montreal Canadiens. While credit has to be given to Timmins for selecting a player like Ryan McDonnagh, the job does not stop with just the selection. I know that may not be fully under Timmins purview, but to me, the Timmins selection is a saw-off : yeah we selected him, yeah he is really good, but we saw no benefit in the selection. As he has no part in pro scouting, or player transactions of that nature, I don't see how any of the blame can be directed at him. |
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Post by seventeen on Jul 29, 2016 13:46:35 GMT -5
As per Wikipedia, "The term was popularised in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Several other people have been listed as originators of the quote, and it is often erroneously attributed to Twain himself." as I've suggested on more than one occasion (plagiarizing someone else), "The thing about quotes on the Internet is you cannot confirm their validity" - Abraham Lincoln I've read that too. I heard it was intercepted off a cell phone call he made. |
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Post by Skilly on Jul 29, 2016 13:57:41 GMT -5
Do the same analysis but only use the # of games our picks played for the Montreal Canadiens. While credit has to be given to Timmins for selecting a player like Ryan McDonnagh, the job does not stop with just the selection. I know that may not be fully under Timmins purview, but to me, the Timmins selection is a saw-off : yeah we selected him, yeah he is really good, but we saw no benefit in the selection. As he has no part in pro scouting, or player transactions of that nature, I don't see how any of the blame can be directed at him. He has a part in Player Personel. Like I said, I'm not blaming Timmins ... but the selection had zero benefit to the Habs. Using number of games is a bad barometer as well. (not as bad as points - when using players that never play for you) For instance, Player A plays 500 games and gets 100 points. Sounds like a good pick when using # games. Unless you drafted him high in the first round and he scored 130 points in junior and you expected him to be an elite first liner. I've always said that Timmins knows how to draft safe second-third liners, he is damn good at it. He just is either unlucky, or simple cannot select great talent. On here we brush it off by saying that the GM chooses the first rounder, yet it is always Timmins at the podium. (most other teams GMs make that selection) He has missed on some good talent over the years in the first rounds. |
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Post by Andrew on Jul 29, 2016 15:58:01 GMT -5
Using number of games is a bad barometer as well. (not as bad as points - when using players that never play for you) For instance, Player A plays 500 games and gets 100 points. Sounds like a good pick when using # games. Unless you drafted him high in the first round and he scored 130 points in junior and you expected him to be an elite first liner. I agree. I think the article is a poor analysis based on that. Ryan O'Byrne contributed 300 games played, as a journeyman 6-7th depth defenseman, while Kucherov and Palat with Tampa have around 200 games under their belt each. Quality has to come in to play. I'd like to give Timmins the benefit of the doubt, but so far I've only seen 3 players of significance emerge since the big 2007 draft: Beaulieu, Gallagher, Galchenyuk. |
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Post by CentreHice on Jul 29, 2016 16:14:02 GMT -5
Could another factor be our pro-development, in both the AHL and NHL? Do we have the best staffs available? Certainly not a winning environment on the farm lately. Even the big club has trouble without all-world goaltending. Call-ups never seem to stay in the same positions for long. Lots of juggling.
"Am I a winger? A centre? Bottom 6? Top 6?"
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Post by GNick99 on Jul 30, 2016 4:05:44 GMT -5
Been awhile since he's had a good draft though. Puzzling how he misses so many first rounders. Maybe Habs should consider trading their first round pick at draft table? It's been beat pretty hard, but during the Gainey era he had no say. From 2010 (Gauthier's first as GM) to now, our average draft position is 18. Anything from 2013 on is simply too early to cast much opinion on. That said, there's plenty of promise in Juulsen, Scherbak and McCarron and they were all selected in the last third of the first round. Our biggest first round failures since Timmins came on belong to Gainey. None of Leblanc, Tinordi, or Fischer were drafted out of position. They all went more or less where they were expected to go. Of those three, only Tinordi could be legitimately put on Timmins. We're expecting Beaulieu to take a leap forward this year. That's only question mark at this point. Is Beaulieu and everyday NHLer? Yes. IMO, he's top 6 on most teams and top 4 on some. At 17th overall, that's not a wasted pick. Last good draft Timmins had was in 2007. Since then he has been pretty average. Game may have changed, or he has. Common that some scouts are a big hit then fade. Barry Fraser did a great job drafting early on for Oilers ie. Messier, Lowe, Coffey, Fuhr, etc... in first 3 drafts, next 15 draft don't think he got a player. |
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Post by seventeen on Jul 31, 2016 22:50:34 GMT -5
Last good draft Timmins had was in 2007. Since then he has been pretty average. Game may have changed, or he has. Common that some scouts are a big hit then fade. Barry Fraser did a great job drafting early on for Oilers ie. Messier, Lowe, Coffey, Fuhr, etc... in first 3 drafts, next 15 draft don't think he got a player. I think it's fair to keep his record in context. The 2007 draft was a great one. Here's a condensed recap of his record after that and the picks he had. 2008 - No first round pick. First pick was at # 56, Danny Kristo (bust) 2009 - Louis Leblanc at #18. That was perhaps the weakest draft in the last 10 years. After the top 6 guys, there were picks like Scott Glennie at #8, Jared Cowan at #9 and Paajarvi=Svenson at #10. Sure, Kreider was picked after Leblanc, but there were a lot of busts in that first round. Habs next choice was at 65, in the 3rd round. 2010 - Tinordi at #22. (Bust so far). Habs had only 5 picks that year and after Tinordi, Timmins had to wait until #113 to pick next. Despite that, he found Gallagher at #147 2011 - Beaulieu at #19 and then he had to wait until pick #97 for his next choice. The rest of the draft wasn't shiny either, but Magnus Nygren was chosen at 113. Dietz at 138 and Daniel Pribyl at 168. Pribyl played in the Czech league last year but was signed as a free agent by Calgary. We get to see what he's like this year. That's not bad for picking guys so late. Nygren could likely make the Habs if he was inclined to play in North America. 2012 Chucky at #3, of course and then two busts, Collberg at 33 and DAlton Thrower at 51. Hudon was picked at 122. 2013 could be very good, but early to tell yet. McCArron at 26, Lehkonen at 55, Ghetto and Reway at 86 and 116 respectively have a chance to be decent players. 2014 Scherbak at 26 2015 Juulsen at 26 2016 Sergachev at 9 The impression I get from all this is that, indeed, Timmins and his scouts have been very good at the later picks, and also that they've had to be. They really haven't had a lot of choices and even their first rounders have been the the late part of the round, where it's a crap shoot. When he's had a top choice (Chucky and Sergachev), I don't think he's missed. There are certainly a few busts in that record, but everybody has those. Overall, I'd have a tough time trading him for any other team's head scout. I mentioned that I thought Tampa's scouts were underrated. I'm not so sure, on reflection, if that's the case. They had a terrific 2011 draft, with Namestnikov, Kucherov and Palat. And they signed Tyler Johnson as a Free Agent. Drouin was an obvious choice. That 2013 draft is looking really strong in hindsight and Tampa sucked the year before so got that great pick. Anway, Timmins looks pretty good vs the opposition. Thank god. |
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