|
|
Post by folatre on Jul 31, 2017 17:22:30 GMT -5
For hockey quiet weeks of summer are here. Sure big things for Habs or others clubs could happen, but at this stage odds are against it.
So what is the competition looking like? Maybe we can think about how some competitors in the Eastern Conference are shaping up during the long wait for camp to open. Since it was the Rangers who knocked out the Canadien this spring and since I have buddy at work who is big Rangers fan, I will take a shot at them.
Kreider-Zibanejad-Zuccarello
Vesey-Hayes-Nash
Buchnevich-Desharnais-Miller
Grabner-Nieves-Fast
The veteran core of these guys have won a ton of playoff games over the last five seasons, but despite some nice speed and skill, this is not at all a top notch group. The obvious weakness runs right down the middle. Yes, Miller could move to centre but it would not be a significant upgrade and it would open a hole on the wing. I certainly think they make a trade deadline move for a centre.
McDonough-Shattenkirk
Staal-Smith
Skjei-Deangelo
That is a stacked defense and they have a Russian coming over, Bereglazov, who could crack in the lineup. Hockey is debatable, but I would judge Rangers probably have the best defense in the conference.
Well, to state the obvious, this is a veteran team in win-now mode. Are they better than last season? Is losing Stepan, their de facto #1 centre, made up for by the addition of an offensive top pairing d-man like Shattenkirk? Which players still have room to grow and have a bigger impact moving forward?
I see the Rangers as being every bit as dangerous as last season and probably the kind of kryptonite the offensively challenged Habs do not want to face. Over a whole regular season Price is clearly the pick over Lundvquist, but in a short seven game series it is not justifiable at this point to give the edge to Price. My outlook is Rangers jump Columbus in standings and unlikely are crossing over to play Atlantic teams early in playoffs.
|
|
|
|
Post by blny on Jul 31, 2017 23:36:34 GMT -5
Good topic.
Eastern - Toronto, Ottawa, Detroit, Montreal, Florida, Tampa, Boston, Buffalo
Atlantic - NYR, NYI, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Washington, Carolina, NYJ
Toronto: They're gonna score goals. Likely a lot. I'm still not sure they'll keep the puck out of their net enough. I don't expect a sophomore slump, but maybe a plateau for a couple of kids. They're in the playoffs again.
Ottawa: I think they take a step back. A lot went right for them. Condon stood on his head when Anderson was out. Methot was Karlsson's safety net. With him gone, Karlsson might be more risk-adverse. I think they're a fringe playoff team at best.
Boston: Outside looking in. Their best players are either aging or few and far between.
Montreal: They're in with Price. They haven't added goals, but I think they'll score enough. The defensive group is a question mark for offense, but I think they'll be steady enough defensively.
Detroit: Outside looking in. The rebuild is on, or should be.
Buffalo: Still too many questions for me. Eichel will lead the way, but the rest? They're out.
Florida: They lost some pieces this summer. Marchessault scored lot of goals for them. Jagr is gone. Smith is gone. Luongo isn't getting any younger and Reimer can't be relied on for #1 duties. I don't think Barkov, Trochek and Huberdeau are enough. They're out.
Tampa: Likely the most complete team in the division. With, or without, Stamkos, I think they'll win it.
Eastern Seeding - Tampa, Montreal, Toronto, Boston, Ottawa, Florida, Buffalo, Detroit; only the top 3 make it.
Pittsburgh: Should be as good as last couple of years. There's enough offense with the centers, Kessel, and co. A healthy Letang will eat a lot of minutes. Dumoulin stepped up. They'll need him to continue. It's Murray's team now, and he seems to have ice in his veins. No MAF safety net shouldn't bother him. They're in.
Washington: Likely the last chance for this group. Kuznetsov and Burakowsky will need to continue to add. With Ovi and Backstrom it's a competent top six. However, with no Oshie or Williams they've taken a hit. They're in.
Columbus: On the cusp. Size, skill, and goals. Good d and a very good goalie. They're in.
NYR: Short on goals, but strong on D. They're going to win a lot of low scoring games. They're in.
NYI: One more year of Tavares. They're just too thin at all the other positions. Can Barzal and Beauvillier step in and step up? I don't think they'll bring enough. They're out.
NJD: Work to do. Hischier is a great piece, but he could easily play another year in the Q. Hall up front, but the rest of the squad won't scare anyone. Schneider will be a man alone. They're out.
Philadelphia: They're a bubble team. A rebound year from a couple of players, and they're close to in. They've got some promising D prospects waiting in the wings. It comes down to them and Carolina for the last spot. I think they're in.
Carolina: Close but no cigar.
[b/Atlantic Seeding[/b] - Pittsburgh, Columbus, Washington, NYR, Philadelphia, Carolina, NYI, NJD
Eastern Conference: Pittsburgh, Tampa, Columbus, Washington, Montreal, NYR, Toronto, Philadelphia
|
|
|
|
Post by franko on Aug 1, 2017 5:55:01 GMT -5
hmmm . . . Montreal and Toronto meeting in the playoffs . . . been a while.
|
|
|
|
Post by seventeen on Aug 2, 2017 1:09:39 GMT -5
The one thing you can absolutely count on is that two or three teams who failed to make the playoffs last year, will make them this year and that two or three teams who did get in this year, will fail next year. The trick is working out which teams those will be. From 14/15 to 15/16, the Habs and Sens missed and were replaced by the Flyers and Panthers. From 15/16 to 16/17, four teams were relegated, the Flyers, Panthers, Lightning and Isles. They were replaced by Leafs, Habs, Sens and Blue Jackets. This season?.....Tough to tell. I think the Blue Jackets make it if Bobrovsky stays healthy. Good set of young, mobile defenders, but not the best scoring bunch. The Leafs are also iffy in my book. I don't necessarily think they'll plateau, but they were extremely lucky last year with a lack of injuries. The had 9 players who played all 82 games and four more who played 75+ games. As we know, an injury to one key player can dash a team's hopes (eg. Price, Ryan Johansen). Ottawa can't do it again, can they? That defense, with the exception of Karlsson, is frightening. It might be easier to pick out the guaranteed playoff teams.
The CAps, Pens, Lightning will make it for sure. Columbus, probably. Ok, I'm just going to pick the teams I think will make it after those 4. The Habs....unless Price is injured. A team with excellent corps of wingers, really weak at centre and bland on defense....but Carey earns his salary. I think Florida will make it again. The Panthers were hit hard by injuries to key guys (Huburdeau, Barkov, Ekblad). They have consistent management back in place and while Gallant has moved on Boughner has a pretty good CV and his assistant is Jack Capuano, so any rookie mistakes should be avoided. That's a pretty good defense on the Panthers. And that's not even my surprise team, which is the Canes. You know my favourite saying, show me a great goalie and I'll show you a great coach. It works in reverse too. But Bill Peters is an excellent coach who was submarined by Cam Ward and Eddie Lack last year. The Canes now have Scott Darling and I liken his situation to that of Cam TAlbot. Better than a back up, and deserving of a chance to be a #1. He won't kill the Canes like Ward and Lack did last year. Peters has a very good young defense in Faulk, Hanifin, Pesce and Slavin. Trevor Van Reimsdyk and Klas Dahlbeck are the 3rd pairing and that's not bad. Up front there's Skinner, Staal, Aho and Terevainen. Not the strongest set of forwards, but I have a very high opinion of Bill Peters and that's a very mobile defense, which helps create offense. So....that's Washington, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Columbus, Montreal, Florida and Carolina. I suspect the Leafs, Flyers, Bruins and Sens will fight for that last playoff spot. Toss a coin to pick between those 4.
|
|
|
|
Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Aug 2, 2017 7:59:50 GMT -5
I don't mind if they don't talk of a 5-year window and then tanking, since that's the kind of thing that comes back to bite you in a few years when fans stay away since the rebuild has bene advertised for so long. We've seen what the fans will do in Montreal if the team even hints at tanking a season ... during the 2015-16 season the players did not help their own cause when they admitted in the last quarter of the season (or thereabouts) that they felt the playoffs weren't in the picture for that year (paraphrase) ... the tickets were sold out, sure, but there were plenty of empty seats, which meant concessions took a hit, and that's where a lot of clubs make some serious coin ... as I was saying, if the fan base even gets a sniff at a tank, the picture below is a good indication how people may handle it ...
 | *Douglas Gelevan on Twitter: "Stands at Bell Centre after 1st whistle in 1st period. Word from the street is scalpers are selling 2 for 1 #Habs" (sic) |
I used to think it was his contract that got him moved out of Montreal but Marc Bergevin took back a similar contract in Shea Weber ... that said, both Bergevin and PK Subban have said that the trade had little to do with hockey ... I remember Chris Nilan saying on TSN 690 that, (paraphrase) if they didn't trade Subban he'd be running the organization in two years ... that's only Nilan's opinion, granted, but I wonder if Berg and Michel Therrien felt somewhat the same way about the "Toast of Montreal" ... it wouldn't surprise me it that were the case, I mean, Subban was easily the most larger-that-life personality we had in Montreal in many, many years ... in that context I really believe Subban might have been a threat to the Hole Brothers ... one last thing for you, PTH, I have some friends who are wondering what the general gist in the Francophone media WRT the direction the team is going ... what's the feeling you're getting ...
Cheers. |
|
|
|
Post by blny on Aug 2, 2017 11:30:32 GMT -5
I think 15-16 was a culmination of multiple things. This organization had far worse teams from 99-02. Fans didn't stay away. They showed up to support a team they knew was trying very hard, just short on talent and riddled with injuries.
Maybe there are more posers in possession of season's tickets now than 20 years ago. If a blatant tank got rid of them, would it be so bad? Not imo.
|
|
|
|
Post by franko on Aug 2, 2017 12:14:17 GMT -5
Washington, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Columbus, Montreal, Florida and Carolina. I suspect the Leafs, Flyers, Bruins and Sens will fight for that last playoff spot. Toss a coin to pick between those 4. yes yes yes yes qualified yes. then the disagreements start. Rags make it in, leaving two spots. do the Leafs fight the sophomore jinx? (I think so) does Methot leaving expose Karlsson? (I think so again). is Darling enough in Carolina? (I don't think so!) does Florida have enough after losing Marchessault, Smith, and Jagr -- is Vrbata enough? (see above: Carolina). the Bruins are in a holding pattern, although they have some good youngsters -- and oldersters. Do the Islanders dump Tavares through the season or take a risk to build around him? (who knows!). I think the only agreement is Barfallo retains their name for one more year, NJ is as bland for at least another year, and Detroit admits to rebuilding. I've got the Flyers and . . . and . . . and . . . I don't know. Sens if they get the goaltending, I guess. Leafs is the young guys don't slump. |
|
|
|
Post by PTH on Aug 2, 2017 17:09:32 GMT -5
... one last thing for you, PTH, I have some friends who are wondering what the general gist in the Francophone media WRT the direction the team is going ... what's the feeling you're getting ... Cheers. [/p][/quote] I think it's pretty much the same on both sides of the language barrier, frankly... for his first few years Berg got a lot of slack, but now questions are popping up here and there. I have to admit the Price deal (which to me is a monstrosity) didn't seem to raise many eyebrows, which I can't wrap my around, frankly. |
|
|
|
Post by folatre on Aug 2, 2017 17:15:13 GMT -5
Since I despise the Bruins more than any other rival, I will look at over there.
Marchand-Bergeron-Pasternak
Vatrano-Krecji-Backes
Beleskey-Spooner-Cehlarik
Acciari-Nash-Schaller
That is a really nice first line, easily one the top 10 lines in entire league. The second is pretty average, though when Krecji is in one of his good stretches that unit is more than capable of a nice second punch. The bottom six is on the whole worse than most NHL teams can put on the ice. Bruins depend on star heavy set of forwards. The depth is simply not there and this makes them vulnerable to injuries and losing streaks.
Chara-Carlo
Krug-McQuaid
McAvoy-Miller
Chara and Carlo is not an ideal top pair because Carlo is not there yet (and probably will never be #1 in my opinion) and Chara is well removed from his many dominant years. The rest of the guys can probably manage the roles they are being asked to play.
Khudobin should give Rask a few more nights off, which is important because he seems to wear down physically, mentally, and emotionally more than most of the other top 10 or so goalies in the league.
Are the Bruins seeking to raise expectations, looking for deals to fix the holes in the roster? Or is Sweeney really in rebuild mode but a rebuild where you do not sell off the club’s veteran stars? Sweeney is probably smart enough to see that Bruins are not real contenders but ownership expects playoffs, so I think it is same flight pattern as last season but with a greater risk of not making the playoffs because the East looks more competitive overall. If I have to predict, I would say Boston misses the playoffs by a point or two (which would not be a huge surprise since they were only one point better than 9th and 10th place teams in conference last season).
|
|
|
|
Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Aug 2, 2017 18:18:17 GMT -5
I think it's pretty much the same on both sides of the language barrier, frankly... for his first few years Berg got a lot of slack, but now questions are popping up here and there. I have to admit the Price deal (which to me is a monstrosity) didn't seem to raise many eyebrows, which I can't wrap my around, frankly. There are a few journalists who are circling the wagons for Marc Bergevin ... many of them are now starting to ask questions and question decisions ... the team finishes first in the division with 103 pts but they're not a winning team ... as such, I have no idea what to expect from our team this year ... I've never seen an NHL defence corps totally dismantled in so short a time ... I don't think Bergevin saw that coming, but he's the guy in the chair ... it's alright to be miffed as a fan right now ... they're milking every dollar they can from the fans ... as for the thread ... I think a Tampa/Toronto division final is not out of the question ... Buffalo has a much better team this year ... not sure about Ottawa's goaltending ... if Craig Anderson falters I think Ottawa will be on the outside looking in ... Boston has some good young players and they could be vying for a playoff spot ... Philly could make some noise in the Metro ... I can see Nashville rising over in the west ... he's better than what they have now, but Dallas will only go as far as Ben Bishop takes them ... Edmonton in the Pacific ... LA Kings could get a high draft pick next year ... that's the world according to me ... #fingerscrossedCheers. |
|
|
|
Post by folatre on Aug 3, 2017 15:36:58 GMT -5
Bergevin narrative, "We need guys who hate to lose, the goal is to make the playoffs anything can happen there, luck was not on our side, and the defense is better, etc."
Time will say, but for me this team is not close to be good enough to win the Stanley Cup right now and he moved against conventional logic in todays NHL to have so much cap space tied up in a goalie and veteran stay at home d-man for virtually another decade. Molson approved these decisions, so the point of no return is not identifiable yet.
I would imagine either of the following scenarios would constitute the point of no return for management:
Miss playoffs in 2017-18
Lose in first round of playoffs in 2017-18 and lose in first round of playoffs in 2018-19 or miss playoffs in 2018-19
Bergevin walked into a pretty nice situation by rebuild standards. There was an enviable high end core and he received free reign to spend what he want how he want and hire who want. If either of the two above scenarios happen, a builder will be called for and there is no way Molson and company can postulate the "failure" to be the next "builder."
|
|
|
|
Post by seventeen on Aug 4, 2017 13:30:32 GMT -5
I don't share the Weber deal was an all-in rationale. I think its simpler. Berg and Therrien hated the type of player PK is...who doesn't have his day ruined by every loss. It's another Phil Esposito based trade...management didn't like the guys temperament so took the best offer they could find at the time. Berg was not going to let PK hang around after July 1 when he could veto any trade at all. It was about power and ego. You don't need that in a leader, and I mean Bergevin. The fact it was the beginning of the slide of the Habs meant nothing to him. He thinks he can actually overcome it. Not in several years, buddy, if ever.
|
|
|
|
Post by franko on Aug 4, 2017 14:41:36 GMT -5
I don't share the Weber deal was an all-in rationale. I don't think that all-in was the impetus behind the trade but it was the result of the trade. the Habs got an older d-man and let a younger d-man go . . . it was "we'd better win now or we're in trouble" . . . that's what I mean by all in. I don't think that could be -- or would be -- denied. for sure. he saw it as "him or me" (and my buddy in the foxhole). was it the Berg's team, or was it PK's? I think Roy would have been the same. and that isn't a good thing. hope he does. hey, the Oilers did . . . |
|
|
|
Post by seventeen on Aug 5, 2017 0:59:00 GMT -5
hope he does. hey, the Oilers did . . . I see your point that the 'all in' wasn't as much a conscious decision as a consequence of the trade. The trouble with the Weber deal and then the Price deal is, as PTH has pointed out, the team is now saddled with two very difficult contracts. The first for a guy who, if he doesn't age well, means we'll be paying $7.9MM for a 2nd pairing defenceman. That's a Dion Phaneuf situation and we know how happy Leaf fans were with Phaneuf. He's a serviceable defenseman, but worth nowhere near his $7MM a year. At this time, Weber may still be classed a first pairing guy (he certainly is on the Habs), but there are concerns. Price's contract is also questionable. Sure he's worth that money to the Habs, but it only takes one hot goalie or one decent goalie outplaying him in one series, for everyone to question why we're using up 14% of oiur CAP on a player who isn't getting us past the 1st or 2nd round. The key deficiency for the Habs is that centre spot. Poehling is looking like he could be the solution, but that will take another 2 or 3 years. By then, Weber will be 34 or 35. We will continue, as long as we have Price, to be competitive in fighting for a playoff spot, and then we'll sputter. And the cycle will continue. After next July, good luck trading Carey Price. We have nearly 1/4 of our CAP tied up in two defensive presences. For the next 8 years (not allowing for increases in the CAP, of course). But it looks ok, doesn't it? Best goalie, great wingers in Patches, Drouin, Lehkonen, Shaw, Chuck, Gallagher. This 'looks' like a team that can truly contend. But it can't. The lack of mobility at the back and the holes at the key centre positions are awfully tall hurdles to overcome. |
|
|
|
Post by franko on Aug 5, 2017 8:03:07 GMT -5
But it looks ok, doesn't it? Best goalie, great wingers in Patches, Drouin, Lehkonen, Shaw, Chuck, Gallagher. This 'looks' like a team that can truly contend. But it can't. The lack of mobility at the back and the holes at the key centre positions are awfully tall hurdles to overcome. I'm looking at that whole wingers comment and wondering how to honestly change it. do we have great wingers, good wingers, adequate wingers . . . or wingers? yup, looks like a contender . . . (insert "looks aren't everything meme here). |
|
|
|
Post by seventeen on Aug 5, 2017 12:03:54 GMT -5
I happen to think we do have some really good wingers. I'd go so far as to say that as a group, they could be ranked in the top 5 in the league. That is definitely based on what I think Drouin and Lehkonen can accomplish, not on their totals from last year. And it's assuming Galchenyuk plays wing instead of centre (strong likelihood) and Gallagher rebounding. All very high probabilities. The issue is that wingers are probably the least important guys on the team. It's like having the best left and right fielders in baseball. And a mediocre pitching staff and shortstop. It can look impressive and you'll still lose a lot of games.
Yeah, I'm beating a dead horse, but our centre and defense positions are bottom 3rd and middle of the pack respectively. With Price, we're good enough to squeak into the playoffs and miss out on lottery pick draft choices. A real sweet spot. Sigh.
|
|
|
|
Post by PTH on Aug 5, 2017 15:03:33 GMT -5
I see your point that the 'all in' wasn't as much a conscious decision as a consequence of the trade. I think this says it all... he painted himself into a corner. |
|
|
|
Post by NWTHabsFan on Oct 3, 2017 9:37:13 GMT -5
Some Tampa news. Looks like Sergachev makes the opening night roster for the Lightning. If he plays 40 regular season games this year, the Habs get that second round pick back. Stick around Sasha!!
|
|
