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Post by blny on Feb 13, 2018 22:50:03 GMT -5
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Post by folatre on Feb 13, 2018 23:23:32 GMT -5
Are the Senators actually saving money? Are they retaining only in the sense of giving up their own cap space but not actually paying Phaneuf 25 percent of his salary going forward?
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Post by seventeen on Feb 13, 2018 23:40:02 GMT -5
Good questions, folatre. I thought perhaps the idea was to get a young centre in Nick Shore, but he's 25 so he's not that young, limiting his upside and he's got 15 points in 49 games so not a great scorer though he wasn't bad in the AHL 3 yeasr ago with 42 points in 38 games. Maybe Ottawa feels he has more to give. Gaborik has 14 points in 30 games. He has been an excellent scorer but at 35 years of age is likely on that downslope where even great players eventually end up. I'm not sure I understand this trade from Ottawa's standpoint. Ottawa gains about $700K in CAP between Shore and Thompson. Is that the benefit for Melnyk?
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Post by seventeen on Feb 13, 2018 23:52:19 GMT -5
I guess all one has to do is dig around a bit and answers seep out: From TSN: www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-sens-save-on-phaneuf-trade-1.998387The Ottawa Senators got the jump nearly a couple of weeks ahead of the NHL Trade Deadline by making a four-player trade with the Los Angeles Kings.
Statistically Speaking breaks down the deal sending Dion Phaneuf back to the Western Conference.
The Kings Get: Dion Phaneuf and Nate Thommpson
Phaneuf (32) along with partner Cody Ceci has been part of one of the worst defence pairings in the league over the past couple of seasons, with the worst goal, expected goal and Corsi numbers among pairings that have played at least 1000 5-on-5 minutes since the start of last season. (View Phaneuf’s HockeyViz shots against heat map here.)
To his credit, however, Phaneuf has managed to put up better numbers when away from Ceci, so maybe there is some hope that Phaneuf can perform better in a new situation.
At this stage of his career, Phaneuf has lost mobility, and is averaging a career-low 20:26 time on ice per game, but he could be looking at a major upgrade in Los Angeles, possibly getting a chance to play alongside Drew Doughty on the Kings’ top pair. Doughty’s been playing a lot with Derek Forbert, so that does seem like a spot that is open for potential change.
Phaneuf still has a heavy shot and can be a physical presence, but given that his play has already declined in recent years, it’s fair to wonder how well he’s going to age, and there are three more years, with a cap hit of $7-million left on his contract. The Senators will retain 25% of Phaneuf’s salary, so the cap hit for the Kings will be $5.25-million per season for the three seasons beyond this current campaign. That’s still a significant commitment.
Thompson is a 33-year-old who can play centre and left wing. He signed a two-year contract last summer, paying him $1.65-million per season, which is an outrageous price given his contributions. He’s a gritty veteran, but he has surpassed 20 points in a season once in his career.
In Los Angeles, Thompson offers experienced depth, having played nearly 600 regular-season games and contributing 18 points in 58 career playoff games but, throughout his career, he’s been on the wrong side of shot differentials. He may be worth a look on the Kings’ fourth line, but that’s about it.
The Senators Get: LW marian Gaborik and C Nick Shore
Gaborik, 35, was an elite scoring winger earlier in his career, surpassing 30 goals in a season seven times, but injuries and age have taken their toll and while he’s managed seven goals in 30 games this season, Gaborik had just one assist and 12 shots on goal in his last 12 games with the Kings.
Signed for three more years beyond this current season, Gaborik’s contract has a $4.875-million cap hit, but the actual cash owed to him in the next three seasons is $3.8-million less (total) than the cap hit, which seems to be the kind of acquisition that a budget-conscious team would make.
Is it possible that Gaborik could fill a secondary scoring role for the Senators? Sure, it’s possible. But, he’s missed 81 games over the past three seasons, so it’s also possible that Gaborik doesn’t finish out his contract, either due to retirement or ending up on long-term injured reserve, and that could conceivably save the Senators even more cash.
Shore is a 25-year-old centre who plays a solid defensive game, but has trouble finishing at the other end of the rink, scoring on just 5.5% of his shots in his career.
As a replacement for Thompson in Ottawa, Shore is an upgrade, and not just because he’s making $925,000 this season and will be a restricted free agent in the summer. His possession stats have been positive and he has been starting more of his shifts in the defensive zone this season.
Verdict: It makes lots of financial sense for the Senators – a team near the bottom of the standings – to get away from the Phaneuf contract, simply because a significant financial obligation to a declining defenceman headed into his mid-30s is not ideal.
If Phaneuf is capable of performing at a high level with a new partner in Los Angeles, then the Kings may not mind taking on Phaneuf’s contract, but there is at least some risk that Phaneuf won’t be able to perform at a high level and the Kings have committed enough financially that they should expect high-level performance.
Ultimately, the Senators are making the fiscally-sound move by reducing their exposure, and that matters for a budget team, while the Kings are taking a shot on a player that they think can still be a solid contributor in their top four on the blueline. The Kings’ side of the deal is more inspired, I suppose, but Ottawa’s play is safer. Now the Senators have to figure out who is going to fit into their top four on defence.
Many of the advanced stats used here come from Natural Stat Trick, Corsica and Hockey Reference. Salary information is from Cap Friendly.
Looks like Gaborik's salary is about $1MM less than his cap hit and shore is an RFA, so his salary costs will be limited as well. It's all about the money for Melnyk. |
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Post by blny on Feb 14, 2018 11:59:22 GMT -5
It's definitely the actual salary that's the key here. Final year of Gabbys deal pays him a hair over $3 million. Phaneuf only drops about 1 million. So they do save, as complicated as it is.
The ltir and buyout option remain. Buyout being calculated on actual money remaining and not the cap hit is something to consider.
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Post by blny on Feb 14, 2018 11:59:33 GMT -5
It's definitely the actual salary that's the key here. Final year of Gabbys deal pays him a hair over $3 million. Phaneuf only drops about 1 million. So they do save, as complicated as it is.
The ltir and buyout option remain. Buyout being calculated on actual money remaining and not the cap hit is something to consider.
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Post by folatre on Feb 14, 2018 13:47:14 GMT -5
You are right, blny. If you are a revenue challenged franchise, saving almost $5.5 million USD over three years is a motivation.
But it does not look like a hockey trade for Ottawa. If you are a Sens fan, it is hard to imagine that saving that money really means anything except that Melnyk is panicking about revenue projections. It is probably crazy for Sens fans to imagine ownership is gearing up to sign Stone, Ceci, Karlsson and Duchene at market value long-term deals.
I am sure Dorion is trying the execute some actual hockey trades right now, but trading Brassard and Hoffman for picks and non-NHL ready prospects is a big risk because the Sens will not have their first round pick in 2019 and moreover what if Karlsson and Duchene are not in any home team discount mood and they are pending free agents all next season? Can you imagine if Colorado drafts Jack Hughes thanks to the bungling of Melnyk and Dorion?
Ottawa does not want to spend to the cap at $74 million and certainly not at $80 million.
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Post by blny on Feb 14, 2018 13:53:26 GMT -5
You are right, blny. If you are a revenue challenged franchise, saving almost $5.5 million USD over three years is a motivation. But it does not look like a hockey trade for Ottawa. If you are a Sens fan, it is hard to imagine that saving that money really means anything except that Melnyk is panicking about revenue projections. It is probably crazy for Sens fans to imagine ownership is gearing up to sign Stone, Ceci, Karlsson and Duchene at market value long-term deals. I am sure Dorion is trying the execute some actual hockey trades right now, but trading Brassard and Hoffman for picks and non-NHL ready prospects is a big risk because the Sens will not have their first round pick in 2019 and moreover what if Karlsson and Duchene are not in any home team discount mood and they are pending free agents all next season? Can you imagine if Colorado drafts Jack Hughes thanks to the bungling of Melnyk and Dorion? Ottawa does not want to spend to the cap at $74 million and certainly not at $80 million. Definitely some serious optics here. Would appear that they're purging where they can to have money to sign Karlsson without going over their self-imposed internal budget. The problem is, if they sell off too much he may bolt. As an aside, if they Sens manage to land the first they've got their Karlsson replacement. I'd be trading Karlsson at that point. |
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Post by PTH on Feb 14, 2018 13:57:41 GMT -5
It's not sure that Ottawa doens't have a 1st in 2019 - they could still elect to let Colorado take their 2018 pick. If ever Ottawa isn't in the top 5 (maybe even top 3?), I'd be seriously considering it if I were their GM.
I'm annoyed at this trade, because I thought both Phaneuf and Gaborik were the kind of guys we could be trying to get in exchange for also taking on some picks, guys who are overpaid but can still contribute to a rebuilding team.
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Post by folatre on Feb 14, 2018 22:51:46 GMT -5
It is hard to know. It would be fascinating deliberation if Ottawa is top five but no Dahlin lottery win.
On some level, Dorion may be inclined to believe the Senators roster is not so terrible that you give up the chance to select Zdina, Svechnikov, Boqvist or Tkachuk.
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