Next year's Cup favourites, as per The Athletic
Aug 31, 2018 15:41:00 GMT -5
Post by seventeen on Aug 31, 2018 15:41:00 GMT -5
NHL team tiers: A player, coach, executive and scout project the 31 teams
By Craig Custance 8/31/2018
It’s fascinating how the NHL is set up right now. The past three Stanley Cup champions have come from the East, and both Washington and Pittsburgh are capable of winning it again. The Tampa Bay Lightning might be the biggest favorite to win it all right now. There’s not much wrong with that team. The Toronto Maple Leafs are the franchise on the rise you can feel confident saying is going to have a say in a Stanley Cup at some point in the next few years.
But the West? Oh man, it’s going to be an absolute slugfest.
“The separation is so tight it’s going to be so hard to separate yourself,” said one NHL coach. “In the West, you might only need 93 or 94 points to get in but, ExtraLOVE, everybody is going to have it. Everybody is going to have 93. The 94th gets you in. That’s my prediction.”
It’s what makes projecting the NHL so challenging this season. So to help the cause for this project, one that attempts to sort every NHL team into tiers of contention for this season, five panelists with different viewpoints (NHL coach, executive, player, scout and media member) were asked to assign a numerical value to every NHL team broken down like this:
1 – A legit Stanley Cup contender
2 – In the Cup conversation
3 – Playoff-caliber
4 – Just outside the bubble
5 – Lottery lock
All panelists were granted anonymity to ensure honesty and frankness. I mean, everybody but the media member. That’s me. Every rating was entered into a spreadsheet and the totals averaged out. Here are the results:
TIER 1: THE LEGIT CUP FAVORITES
Tampa Bay Lightning
Average rating: 1
The Lightning are the only team in the league to get five unanimous one votes. There’s so much to like about this team. It has playoff experience. There is serious firepower up front with Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov. Victor Hedman can play all game. The goalie is great. Jon Cooper has guided this team through long playoff runs in the past, and there’s a GM who will relentlessly look to add to the mix.
“They’re just so deep,” said the executive. “They have every weapon in the arsenal. They move the puck well. They play fast. They have good goaltenders. They have everything.”
Nashville Predators
Average rating: 1.3
The Predators will be a popular preseason Cup pick and for good reason. Nashville has the league’s best defense and is strong down the middle. Filip Forsberg isn’t so bad either. The challenge, like the other contenders in the division, is getting out of the Central.
“They’re a great team, I just don’t know what they have on the bottom side of the lineup,” said the player. “Their top-end talent is great but I don’t know about the bottom. I don’t know. They’re good enough and Pekka Rinne is going to bounce back in the playoffs. I just don’t know. I don’t think they’re a lock. I think there’s better teams in the West.”
In handing out an easy one, the NHL scout pointed to the defense: “Their defense is better than any team in the league.”
Washington Capitals
Average rating: 1.3
Voters tended to give the Capitals the benefit of the doubt. They won the Stanley Cup and they’re returning just about everybody. But there wasn’t universal love for the Capitals’ repeat chances.
“They had a wonderful run. But trying to duplicate that? Pittsburgh had more going for them to allow them to double up than Washington,” the scout said. “Things went generally pretty right for Washington last year. You have to have a lot of stuff line up to make it where they made it. Trying to get that to line up two times in a row when there’s 30 other teams trying to unline you? It’s tough.”
Winnipeg Jets
Average rating: 1.3
Despite playing in the impossible Central, this team is built to win it. The Jets are set up and got a no-brainer one vote from the player.
“They’re hard to play against,” he said. “They ran into a hot team in Vegas, and Nashville was a hard series for them.”
It’s not going to get any easier this season to navigate the postseason, with the opponents the Jets’ have to go through to get to a Stanley Cup final being arguably their biggest hurdle. Still, the executive suggested there are other reasons for concern.
“I just don’t know what’s going to happen with Jacob Trouba, how that gets reconciled,” he said of the Jets defenseman who got a one-year deal after a six-hour arbitration hearing. “I’m not 100 percent sold on their goaltending. People are high on (Connor) Hellebuyck. He had a great season. But until a goalie has done it, he hasn’t done it.”
TIER TWO: IN THE CUP CONVERSATION
Toronto Maple Leafs
Average rating: 1.8
The John Tavares addition had the panel very excited about the Maple Leafs’ chances. They typically got a rating of two but a one from the coach, an Eastern Conference rival, moved them to the top of this tier.
The concerns mostly centered on the defense, although the belief was that the defense in place now probably isn’t going to be the one we see after the trade deadline.
“It’s going to be, can they stop being the team that says ‘We’re going to beat you 7-6?’ Can they hunker down? They have a great goaltender in Frederik Andersen,” said the player. “Their D — hopefully they can get some guys to step up and play better and be more cohesive there. That’s the only issue they have. Offensively, when you’re playing against them, it’s impressive how dangerous they can be. But you can play in their end awhile because they don’t want to play there.”
Boston Bruins
Average rating: 1.9
People really like the Bruins. The young players are coming into their own and the veterans are still young enough to be effective.
“Their veterans are still strong. (Patrice) Bergeron, (Brad) Marchand and even watching (Zdeno) Chara — I think he’s going to be better,” said the executive. “I like their goaltending and they’ve got good young players getting better like the McAvoys and DeBrusks.”
Pittsburgh Penguins
Average rating: 1.9
As long as Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are around, this is a team that will believe it can win a Stanley Cup. The defense isn’t perfect, but it wasn’t when they won either.
Are they as good now as they were when they went back-to-back?
“That’s a good question,” answered the coach. “It’s about their big boys. And Phil Kessel — how happy is he? I still think they have a real chance. There’s enough fabric there still from the team that won twice. When you do that, there’s an undying belief — you just walk different, you feel different. I think that heartbeat is still there.”
St. Louis Blues
Average rating: 2.1
GM Doug Armstrong may have won the offseason but now his players have to convert the additions of Ryan O’Reilly, Tyler Bozak, David Perron and Patrick Maroon into a long playoff run. This is now a deep, talented, multi-dimensional forward group that can play with anyone. There is strength down the middle that didn’t always exist in St. Louis.
“I like their forward group. I’m not crazy about their defensemen,” said the coach. “I’m also not convinced about their goalie. You like their D about three deep. Jay Bouwmeester, some of the tread is worn off. But I like their forward group. They have young studs, (Robby) Fabbri is back there and if (Jaden) Schwartz could ever stay healthy … they’re going to have to run five forwards on the power play to keep that group happy. That’s a talented group of forwards.”
Columbus Blue Jackets
Average rating: 2.4
Was this story rushed to print so it could get out before a possible Artemi Panarin trade so we wouldn’t have to re-vote? Possibly. But it’s not just Panarin who faces uncertainty in Columbus. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is entering the last year of his contract and there’s still convincing to be done that he can win in the playoffs.
“The unknown is that on deadline day they could look a hell of a lot different,” said the coach. “I can’t imagine they would take either one of those guys past the deadline just to get a Cup run out of them. I don’t think they can afford that. That to me is such an unknown. That’ll be an interesting one to watch. That one is headed into a roundabout and I’m not sure which exit it’s going to get off.”
San Jose Sharks
Average rating: 2.3
Man, does this comment from the coach sum up the Sharks well: “I always discount San Jose and they’re always right there.”
They are.
They didn’t land Tavares or any other big name this summer, but as long as Joe Thornton keeps going, this team has a fighting chance. He’s such a presence for the Sharks. The challenge for San Jose is going to be separating itself from the other Pacific teams. That division is going to be a dogfight.
“I gotta say, L.A. and San Jose are close. I think Calgary is right there,” said the coach. “Vegas is going to find a way to be right there. That’s your top tier in the division, and then it’s Anaheim and Edmonton. I don’t know if Arizona can hang in there long enough.”
TIER THREE: IN THE PLAYOFF MIX
Vegas Golden Knights
Average rating: 2.6
The reasons for discounting the Golden Knights are numerous. The adrenaline from year one is gone. So are James Neal and David Perron. Marc-Andre Fleury is a year older and has a new contract. Vegas is going to be a popular pick for regression and this panel was no different.
“You’re going to get some reality. Everyone was on a one-year contract,” said the player.
Those short-term contracts have now become long-term contracts. That often comes with contentment rather than the chip-on-the-shoulder that drove Vegas last year. And the player said the novelty of playing in Vegas will wear off for opposing players.
“(Playing in Vegas) had an awe factor,” he said. “We’re all competitive. We’re still going to enjoy ourselves but you’re not going to have the ‘wow factor.’ I’m not discounting them completely, they’ll be OK.”
Calgary Flames
Average rating: 2.7
GM Brad Treliving shook up the Flames roster after last season’s disappointment and this is a big season for Calgary. The panel was mixed on how it’s going to play out.
“I still think there’s something not quite right for them,” said the scout, unable to quite pinpoint his issue. “I don’t know what it is. People I hang with tend to think they’re better than I think they are. I probably underrate them. I have a hard time getting excited about them.”
The coach expects Calgary to come in focused and use last season’s struggles as fuel this year.
“It’s kind of like wake-up call time for these guys,” he said. “They’ve got a real solid group of defensemen. Dougie Hamilton leaving is a positive. I get a sense there’s motivation there, the team was not far off last year. They have special players that I’m anticipating have grown up a little bit over the last year. What are they missing?”
Los Angeles Kings
Average rating: 2.8
This team is fascinating. They’re going to be a mess in a couple years. They’re a bit old and slow. But there’s still a Stanley Cup DNA, a lot of talent in the right positions and a complete wild card in Ilya Kovalchuk.
“And with (Jonathan) Quick in goal, they’re hard to play against,” the player said. “They’re big. Kovalchuk is another threat. I’m not 100 percent sold, but you have (Drew) Doughty back there who can play 30 minutes and it doesn’t faze him. And the resurgence of Dustin Brown, we’ll see if he can do it again. I know he’s pissed off about losing the captaincy, maybe that sparked him. (Anze) Kopitar. Brown. (Jeff) Carter. Kovalchuk. You can’t say they’re going to be a bad team.”
Said the coach: “They could win the division. They could finish sixth.”
Dallas Stars
Average rating: 2.9
It seems like there’s always something with the Stars. Crushing injuries to start the season. A goalie that can’t consistently stop the puck. A contract negotiation that threatens to be a dark cloud over an entire season. Another new coach.
There’s plenty of talent but there’s also unanswered questions.
“Their back end and keeping the puck out of the net concerns me,” said the coach. “(John) Klingberg is so talented, but he’s still a wild card based on the way he plays. I’m not sure he’s grown up beyond that. Every time they would go on a run last year, it kind of fizzled. There’s that cloud of uncertainty.”
Florida Panthers
Average rating: 2.9
This team could be sneaky good. I liked them better than the field, giving them a 2.5 to everybody else’s three. But essentially the consensus was they could be good if things come together.
Mike Hoffman adds a much-needed scorer on the wing, and at some point, we’ll all realize just how good Aleksander Barkov is for the Panthers.
“They have the horses, they just need goaltending,” said the player.
Edmonton Oilers
Average rating: 3.1
For a team that finished with just 78 points last season, there seemed to be a surprising air of optimism when discussing the Oilers.
“I think when you get kicked in the teeth like they did, there’s a bounce back,” said the player. “They’re going to rally around that. With the offensive power they have — you just can’t discount Connor McDavid and what he can do. There’s a lot of guys on that team that underachieved and usually they come in with something to prove.”
Colorado Avalanche
Average rating: 3.2
For a team that made the playoffs, there wasn’t a ton of faith in Colorado’s ability to repeat it. They appear to be a strong candidate to be a young team that takes a step back before charging forward, similar to what Winnipeg and Calgary went through in recent years.
“I don’t know. Their goaltending is hot or cold or non-existent,” said the scout. “I just don’t have a lot of trust there.”
Philadelphia Flyers
Average rating: 3.2
There’s a lot to like about the Flyers, from the addition of James van Riemsdyk to the emergence of Nolan Patrick down the stretch last season. The defense is young but developing. But there’s still the big unknown.
“Goaltending. Goaltending,” said the NHL scout. “I like some of their players, but I don’t think they’re quite there yet. JVR is going to get his points, especially on the power play, but I don’t know if that’s going to push them over the top.”
Minnesota Wild
Average rating: 3.4
The Wild seem to be evolving from a team that you felt comfortable penciling in as a playoff team to one in which a slide just outside the playoffs seems inevitable. Everyone seems OK with the Wild. Nobody really loves them either.
“They confuse me,” said the player. “They’re a weird team. I like them. I don’t know. I think they need a lot of things to go right to win. And is Eric Staal going to do what he did last year?”
It’s a fair question.
“I think they have a lot of good pieces,” said the coach. “I don’t get a real good feel for the temperature of that room. I don’t get a real good sense there’s the tightness that other teams have out there. It doesn’t seem like a mix of players that have fallen in love with each other.”
New Jersey Devils
Average rating: 3.4
The Devils were one of the NHL’s biggest surprises last year. As often is the case when that happens, there’s a healthy skepticism that it can be repeated. New Jersey is firmly in the Colorado category: a good, young team that may be on the verge of a step backward before taking another step forward.
“It’s almost like this past year was what’s supposed to be this year and this year will be what’s supposed to be last year,” said the coach. “When you exceed expectations, the whole picture changes. It’s going to be really hard for Taylor Hall to surprise everybody when they really see you coming. For the first 20 games, they probably surprised everybody. They did a good job of becoming the team they want to become. Now, everybody knows who is coming through the door.”
Anaheim Ducks
Average rating: 3.5
This seems low to me but the panel wasn’t crazy about the Ducks.
“I think they’re easy to play against,” said the player. “They don’t scare me. They have good players but they’re on the other side. I don’t see the same speed and compete level out of (Corey) Perry. There’s going to be a changing of the guard there.”
Chicago Blackhawks
Average rating: 3.5
You can hear the respect in the voices of panelists talking about the Blackhawks but there is also legitimate concern. Is there enough depth beyond the stars? What’s the deal with Corey Crawford? And what is the defense going to look like?
“They could be right there or they could be …,” said the coach, trailing off. “They know what they’re doing. They know how to win. But you can only pull so much in this league with a few horses. You have to be good deep. I don’t know if they’re good deep enough. They’re not a playoff team.”
The concerns over Crawford are legitimate and the Cam Ward signing didn’t appear to calm any nerves on that front.
“Goaltending, I don’t know what’s going on there,” said the scout. “Nothing I’ve heard is positive, I’ll tell you that. They’re in a tough spot. They need masterful stuff from Mr. Kane and Mr. Toews, and I’m not sure they can get it. Their defense is starting to be in trouble.”
TIER FOUR: JUST OUTSIDE THE BUBBLE
Carolina Hurricanes
Average rating: 4
They’re bringing in a top pair defenseman in Dougie Hamilton and a potential superstar winger in Andrei Svechnikov but there still was not a lot of love for their playoff chances at this point from the panel.
“They can’t score and they don’t have a goalie. That’s two big obstacles,” said the NHL scout. “You’re allowed one obstacle but not two.”
Arizona Coyotes
Average rating: 4
This is a young team headed in the right direction that should be showing signs of progress in their rebuild. Still, the consensus is that it’s not quite ready for the playoffs, even if there’s optimism in the desert right now.
“They haven’t shown me enough yet to get me to jump on the bandwagon,” said the scout.
Added the executive: “They’ve bottomed out but they’re on the way back up. They may not be at the absolute bottom of the league. They’re moving in the right direction.”
New York Islanders
Average rating: 4.1
This seems about right for a team that didn’t make the playoffs last season with Tavares and now is trying to figure out what life in the post-Tavares era looks like. The additions of Leo Komarov, Valtteri Filppula and Matt Martin continue the Islanders’ odd trend of spending down the lineup. There are some great young players in that organization and the Islanders had a great 2018 draft. The fastest path back might be a drop to the bottom of the standings for one season to add another foundational piece.
New York Rangers
Average rating: 4.2
For a team that is firmly in rebuilding mode there was still a sense that the Rangers could have a chance to be competitive this season.
“With Henrik Lundqvist they do,” said the executive, who rated them a 3.5. “That’s why I put them where they are. Can they win the Cup? No. Do I think they might surprise people? Yes.”
Buffalo Sabres
Average rating: 4.5
The Sabres hit it big in the draft lottery with the addition of defenseman Rasmus Dahlin, but panelists don’t see that as an automatic push into playoff contention. The heavy lifting surrounding the rebuild in Buffalo is over but there’s still work to be done as this young team learns how to win.
“It’s a feeling out process there. They all think they’re great players. That’s wonderful. Dahlin, you think he’s great but he doesn’t know the league,” said the player. “You have to have people around him to pull through. Are guys going to help (Jack) Eichel pull through? It’s not a knock on them, it’s where they’re starting. And I don’t think they have the goaltending.”
TIER 5: LOSE FOR HUGHES
Detroit Red Wings
Average rating: 4.7
The polling came as the seriousness of Henrik Zetterberg’s back injury surfaced, revealing that he won’t be playing in training camp and is out to start the season. Chances are, unless there’s a miraculous medical turn, he’s done playing. Factor in the loss of the captain, a suspect defense where the youngest players aren’t quite ready and one of the league’s oldest rosters, and it could be a long season in Detroit.
The Red Wings got fives across the board, with only the player giving them a 3.5 because he likes Dylan Larkin.
“They’re bottoming out this year,” said the executive. “I don’t think they have a chance of winning. They’re going to be picking in the bottom three or four.”
Montreal Canadiens
Average rating: 4.8
Shea Weber is out. The Max Pacioretty drama appears to be an issue that’s going to cause a distraction until he’s traded. There are good, young players on the way, but it’s going to take time for them to make an impact at the NHL level. If there’s going to be any success in Montreal this season, it’ll likely be for one reason only.
“People forget about Carey Price. That’s the only thing,” said the NHL scout. “I think they’re in trouble, but Carey Price can cover up a lot of freaking mistakes. Him alone can put them in the playoffs, he’s done it before.”
“There’s so many moving parts and a lot of question marks,” said the player. “The way they’ve treated Pacioretty, it’s such a weird culture there. Weber is out. I’m never going to discount Carey Price, he can win you games. And they may be hard to play against. I just don’t think they’re going to have the firepower to score goals. There’s some good pieces there, I just don’t know if they even know what they have there either.”
Ottawa Senators
Average rating: 5
At this point, there’s no sense piling on the Senators who seem destined to send a really good pick to the Avalanche (as part of the Matt Duchene trade).
“That’s a mess,” said the player.
Vancouver Canucks
Average rating: 5
The Canucks may believe they’re closer to playoff contention but there wasn’t anyone on the panel willing to give them anything better than a five.
“I feel bad,” said the player. “Without the Sedins, I don’t know where that’s going to go. There’s going to be a battle for hierarchy. Who is going to be the face of that team?”
The executive felt confident projecting another bottom finish for the Canucks.
“The bottom three teams in the league are going to be the Canucks, Ottawa and Detroit,” he said.
And lastly, some thoughts from the coach on Vancouver: “They’re going to get the Saperlipopette kicked out of them in the division.”
That last comment solicited laughter from the readers, suggesting the coach had to be Torts and he was giving it to the Canucks. Could be.
Not a pretty picture for the Habs. Geoff, are you paying attention? Notice the comment at the end of the Habs prediction...."There’s some good pieces there, I just don’t know if they even know what they have there either.”
