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Post by Polarice on Jan 26, 2019 15:16:31 GMT -5
I wasn't going to post this, but since it's a slow week in Habsville I figured why not.
Almost 2 weeks ago, I was chatting to one of my Hockey buddies (she's a sister of someone affiliated with the Sens) and she brought up that she heard that Karlsson's family wants to stay in Ottawa and he doesn't want to leave them. Hence the reason why he is in no hurry to sign any deal with the Sharks.
So...."IF" that's the case, where does he sign this summer? Toronto? Montreal?
Where do you see him going?
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Post by blny on Jan 26, 2019 16:40:48 GMT -5
Don't think it will be an Eastern Canadian team. If he were left handed, maybe you kick the tires.
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Post by folatre on Jan 26, 2019 17:42:46 GMT -5
For sure, Karlsson's wife is from Ottawa and he was there for many years so it makes sense. Unless Melnyk sells the Sens, it is impossible to imagine him wearing an Ottawa sweater again.
I think that the main destination he would be interested in is Tampa, but with Point needing a contract this summer and Vasilevskiy one the following summer, it just does not seem likely that BriseBois would prioritize throwing every dollar that he could clear at Karlsson.
Toronto or Montreal may be appealing because of the proximity to Ottawa and because they are great hockey towns. I simply cannot fathom how Toronto could fit him into their cap architecture. Even if Matthews signs a six year deal, it would come with at least a $10 million AAV and Marner's deal would be around 8.5 per for a six year term. Karlsson is elite so obviously it is fun to think about him in a Habs sweater. But it would be tough to have $30 million annually tied up in three veteran stars, when in the not so distant future the organization's top centres (Kotkaniemi and Domi) are going to need to be paid.
It is hard to know. For me I see the Rangers and the Flyers making a big push for him if he reaches the open market. I am not so sure about Colorado's revenue streams and ownership's willingness to spend big (as is, Rantanen will need big dollars), but they could be a dark horse landing spot if they feel their legitimate contending window is about to open.
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Post by jkr on Jan 26, 2019 19:12:07 GMT -5
And Karlsson has said before that he won't take a discount. Please, not Toronto. The hype is bad enough around here.  |
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Post by blny on Jan 26, 2019 19:45:27 GMT -5
And Karlsson has said before that he won't take a discount. Please, not Toronto. The hype is bad enough around here. While we could squeeze him in, there's simply no way the Leafs could. They're in trouble now. Doughty's contract is the benchmark. $11 million per season. He won't be taking less. |
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Post by franko on Jan 26, 2019 21:59:21 GMT -5
And Karlsson has said before that he won't take a discount. Please, not Toronto. The hype is bad enough around here. While we could squeeze him in, there's simply no way the Leafs could. They're in trouble now. Doughty's contract is the benchmark. $11 million per season. He won't be taking less. the questions become (1) who can afford it and (b) who wants to? . . . especially with the long-term effects on his lower body |
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Post by blny on Jan 27, 2019 10:48:51 GMT -5
While we could squeeze him in, there's simply no way the Leafs could. They're in trouble now. Doughty's contract is the benchmark. $11 million per season. He won't be taking less. the questions become (1) who can afford it and (b) who wants to? . . . especially with the long-term effects on his lower body After a slow start in SJ, he's been vg. It's a valid concern though. He'll be 29 when the contract starts. |
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Post by Polarice on Jan 27, 2019 11:35:17 GMT -5
While we could squeeze him in, there's simply no way the Leafs could. They're in trouble now. Doughty's contract is the benchmark. $11 million per season. He won't be taking less. the questions become (1) who can afford it and (b) who wants to? . . . especially with the long-term effects on his lower body I can see a team easily giving him a max deal for 4-5 years. If you're injured long term your salary doesn't count against the cap so teams with money won't care too much. Not saying I wan't the Habs to sign him, but we could do worse. |
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Post by franko on Jan 27, 2019 13:56:42 GMT -5
the questions become (1) who can afford it and (b) who wants to? . . . especially with the long-term effects on his lower body I can see a team easily giving him a max deal for 4-5 years. If you're injured long term your salary doesn't count against the cap so teams with money won't care too much. Not saying I wan't the Habs to sign him, but we could do worse. a team may give him 4-5 years, but he's after 7 or 8. should be interesting . . . |
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Post by seventeen on Jan 28, 2019 13:16:31 GMT -5
I think another aspect needs to be considered here as well. Scandinavian players (and yes I'm generalizing) seem to be less concerned about $$ than about quality of life. Remember when Magnus Nygren went back to Sweden after that mugging in Hamilton? Just our luck for the farm team to be in Hamilton. Good player, probably would have made the Habs. Mattias Ekholm, when asked about signing a long term team friendly contract as to if he'd left money on the table, said he was making more than he'd ever be able to spend in his lifetime.
Russians are different and I'm not sure about Swiss or German players, but the Danes, Finns and Swedes all seem to be less focused on money. If I was going after Karlsson, that's the card I'd play. Come to Montreal, the most European city in North America.
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Post by Willie Dog on Jan 28, 2019 17:32:49 GMT -5
And Montreal is the closest NHL city to the Scananavian countries 😁
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Post by folatre on Jan 28, 2019 18:20:17 GMT -5
Those are good points, seventeen. Montreal is similar to Europe.
Karlsson may want Doughty money and it would be complicated to have $30 million annually committed to three vets.
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Post by franko on Jan 28, 2019 19:43:11 GMT -5
Those are good points, seventeen. Montreal is similar to Europe. Karlsson may want Doughty money and it would be complicated to have $30 million annually committed to three vets. No "may" about it, he's been quite up front about wanting that kind of money. |
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Post by GNick99 on Apr 30, 2020 8:42:35 GMT -5
I was talking to San Jose fan other day, remember the EK to Montreal rumours of last summer. Buddy was saying Sharks have a bunch of contracts he doubts they can move. He never said names but think Karlsson was one of them. Looks like we dodged a bullet on this one. At 11.5 million for 7 more years?
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Post by folatre on Apr 30, 2020 18:25:06 GMT -5
Karlsson was perhaps the d-man that I most enjoyed watching play hockey over the previous decade (2010-19). And I believe he is still a very good offensive driver when healthy. But the unfortunate part for players in the cap world, the fans often look at you in terms of whether or not you are currently playing up to your contract and likewise GMs of other clubs have to filter every decision through cap ramifications so they basically want nothing to do with a guy who is on the wrong side of 30 with major money and term remaining on the contract.
Hockey is debatable and i may be wrong, but I think in a hard cap world (now morphing into a flat hard cap) very good hockey players like Karlsson, Suter, Parise, Price, Weber, Bobrovsky, among others do not hold much trade value unless their club was retaining at least 25 percent. These guys still play the game at a high level but no one is giving Wilson a top prospect and a first rounder for the right to absorb a $11.5 million cap hit for the next seven seasons. Similarly, if Price walked into Bergevin's office and said trade me, I am not so sure Montreal could get anything resembling fair value unless Bergevin was willing to retain $2-3 million.
Karlsson is poetry in motion on the ice, but yeah I am definitely glad that the Habs did not sign him.
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Post by BadCompany on May 1, 2020 9:24:02 GMT -5
Karlsson was perhaps the d-man that I most enjoyed watching play hockey over the previous decade (2010-19). And I believe he is still a very good offensive driver when healthy. But the unfortunate part for players in the cap world, the fans often look at you in terms of whether or not you are currently playing up to your contract and likewise GMs of other clubs have to filter every decision through cap ramifications so they basically want nothing to do with a guy who is on the wrong side of 30 with major money and term remaining on the contract. Hockey is debatable and i may be wrong, but I think in a hard cap world (now morphing into a flat hard cap) very good hockey players like Karlsson, Suter, Parise, Price, Weber, Bobrovsky, among others do not hold much trade value unless their club was retaining at least 25 percent. These guys still play the game at a high level but no one is giving Wilson a top prospect and a first rounder for the right to absorb a $11.5 million cap hit for the next seven seasons. Similarly, if Price walked into Bergevin's office and said trade me, I am not so sure Montreal could get anything resembling fair value unless Bergevin was willing to retain $2-3 million. Karlsson is poetry in motion on the ice, but yeah I am definitely glad that the Habs did not sign him. I still think you can make those moves, but you'll have to take back an almost-as-bad contract. For example, would Nashville do Turris and Rinne for Price? Turris has five more years left at $6 million per, Rinne has one more year at $5 million. They'd actually be shedding salary for next season (albeit not much), while getting a goalie who is five years younger than the one they currently have. If they think Price is hamstrung by a mediocre defense (especially compared to Nashville's) then that might be a deal they would be interested in. Since Montreal doesn't HAVE to make that deal they can negotiate for that first rounder, top prospect, whatever. But straight up, yeah no. You're not getting that player-pick-prospect deal from years past. |
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Post by GNick99 on May 3, 2020 7:59:06 GMT -5
Karlsson was perhaps the d-man that I most enjoyed watching play hockey over the previous decade (2010-19). And I believe he is still a very good offensive driver when healthy. But the unfortunate part for players in the cap world, the fans often look at you in terms of whether or not you are currently playing up to your contract and likewise GMs of other clubs have to filter every decision through cap ramifications so they basically want nothing to do with a guy who is on the wrong side of 30 with major money and term remaining on the contract. Hockey is debatable and i may be wrong, but I think in a hard cap world (now morphing into a flat hard cap) very good hockey players like Karlsson, Suter, Parise, Price, Weber, Bobrovsky, among others do not hold much trade value unless their club was retaining at least 25 percent. These guys still play the game at a high level but no one is giving Wilson a top prospect and a first rounder for the right to absorb a $11.5 million cap hit for the next seven seasons. Similarly, if Price walked into Bergevin's office and said trade me, I am not so sure Montreal could get anything resembling fair value unless Bergevin was willing to retain $2-3 million. Karlsson is poetry in motion on the ice, but yeah I am definitely glad that the Habs did not sign him. I still think you can make those moves, but you'll have to take back an almost-as-bad contract. For example, would Nashville do Turris and Rinne for Price? Turris has five more years left at $6 million per, Rinne has one more year at $5 million. They'd actually be shedding salary for next season (albeit not much), while getting a goalie who is five years younger than the one they currently have. If they think Price is hamstrung by a mediocre defense (especially compared to Nashville's) then that might be a deal they would be interested in. Since Montreal doesn't HAVE to make that deal they can negotiate for that first rounder, top prospect, whatever. But straight up, yeah no. You're not getting that player-pick-prospect deal from years past. Canadiens have 3 defensemen in NHL top 10 for giveaways. Trading Price is going to be a mistake. Defensemen who turn the puck over often generally are fatal to a team. Canadiens have cap room to retain. But Weber brings a lot to a team. Both are bad at giveaways. Petry is our worst in turnovers. Trade him for big package. If Draft is held after July 1, potential there for a trade and sign. I would do like Bergs did with Pacioretty. Ask him where he'd llike to go first, if a good trade can be had there. You know be increase in value because good chance Petry will sign there. |
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Post by seventeen on May 3, 2020 12:45:36 GMT -5
Regarding the turnover statistics, I'd be careful with anything that the NHL records. I keep reading advanced stats guys who disagree with the NHL's numbers and it's not surprising at all. I doubt they spend much money on it and I suspect the process used is more cheap and cheerful than accurate.
SEcondly, if Petry does have a lot of turnovers, it wouldn't be surprising. He's they guy counted on in that pairing to get the transition game going, so he has the puck a lot and he's trying to make more difficult passes. I have a sneaking feeling Petry's partner is low on the turnover numbers.
Just speculating.
I still think Petry is the best defenseman on the Habs and it's not that close.
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Post by GNick99 on May 4, 2020 8:05:54 GMT -5
Regarding the turnover statistics, I'd be careful with anything that the NHL records. I keep reading advanced stats guys who disagree with the NHL's numbers and it's not surprising at all. I doubt they spend much money on it and I suspect the process used is more cheap and cheerful than accurate. SEcondly, if Petry does have a lot of turnovers, it wouldn't be surprising. He's they guy counted on in that pairing to get the transition game going, so he has the puck a lot and he's trying to make more difficult passes. I have a sneaking feeling Petry's partner is low on the turnover numbers. Just speculating. I still think Petry is the best defenseman on the Habs and it's not that close. Petry's plus/minus team worst since he came here. Seen him make numerous defensive misques. He had highest turnovers for defensemen, going to lead to golden scoring chances. I would guess. He is turning 33 later this year, soon be declining asset but to a Cup caliber team would be worth a ton in a trade. He has a couple of top years left and can move the puck and create offense. I would move him instead of lock him up long term. I was kind of hoping draft was held after July 1st. Thus creating a trade and sign scenario, which increases trade return. Speed is usually first asset to go on a player. Once he losses half a step....can't see him being anything close to what he is now |
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Post by GNick99 on May 4, 2020 8:38:19 GMT -5
Karlsson was perhaps the d-man that I most enjoyed watching play hockey over the previous decade (2010-19). And I believe he is still a very good offensive driver when healthy. But the unfortunate part for players in the cap world, the fans often look at you in terms of whether or not you are currently playing up to your contract and likewise GMs of other clubs have to filter every decision through cap ramifications so they basically want nothing to do with a guy who is on the wrong side of 30 with major money and term remaining on the contract. Hockey is debatable and i may be wrong, but I think in a hard cap world (now morphing into a flat hard cap) very good hockey players like Karlsson, Suter, Parise, Price, Weber, Bobrovsky, among others do not hold much trade value unless their club was retaining at least 25 percent. These guys still play the game at a high level but no one is giving Wilson a top prospect and a first rounder for the right to absorb a $11.5 million cap hit for the next seven seasons. Similarly, if Price walked into Bergevin's office and said trade me, I am not so sure Montreal could get anything resembling fair value unless Bergevin was willing to retain $2-3 million. Karlsson is poetry in motion on the ice, but yeah I am definitely glad that the Habs did not sign him. So, you wouldn't take Karlsson for nil. It is a lot of money. If they can retain some maybe worth it? Let's us trade Petry for big haul. Just thinking out loud. What about Burns? He has 5 years left at 8 million. Or, we could retain some and retrade him? Burns at 4 million a year locked up for 5 years is worth a ton. Burns at 8 million a year in this cap uncertainly is questionable. But 4 million could return the big value for us. Actually, we end up with more cap room if we trade Petry and retain 4 million a year on Burns. But could net 4 young assets in those moves. We had 6.8 million never used this season. Mason is off next year, gives us 8. Weise is gone, gives us 9. Somebody else comes off, forget who now. We should be around 10 million. Removed Petry's 5,5 millon and retain 4 million on a Burns. Gives us 11.5 entering free agency. We can make some noise? Krug? Pietrangelo? |
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