2021 Draft

[NWTHabsFan]

The top end of the 2023 draft class is elite. Of course, things could change in two years, but there are other doozies in the next two draft classes too that will impress. The 2021 draft class lacks the same star power, but there are players to be found for sure. The inconsistency of games played and over emphasis on video scouting will make the last few years body of work even more important.

[NWTHabsFan]

Goals, goals, and more goals was the name of the game in both semis. In Canada’s game, all but one of the 9 goals were into the Swedish net. In the other semi, it was a much more dramatic 6-5 Russia win over Finland. Miroshnichenko had a pair for Russia and Michkov scored his 11th. Chibrikov scored as well, and continues to be a very good option for the Habs pick. Finland’s offence did not go through Tuomaala and Koivunen last night like pretty well every other game. Salminen lead the way with a pair of goals of his own. It was 6-3 and Russia was heavily outshooting and outplaying Finland well into the third, when Finland battled back with a pair to make it 6-5 with over two to play. Finland played the last 4:04 with an empty net and swarmed Russia for the equalizer. They scored their fifth during that stretch but still just came up a tad short. You can never count those pesky Finns out.

So, the “dream” final is set, featuring the star studded and high octane offences of Canada and Russia finally going head to head. The two best teams of the tournament meet for all the marbles. And the classic rivalry between Sweden and Finland is a wonderful appetizer for the bronze medal.

Both games on TSN3 today.

Bronze SWE-FIN 5pm ET

Gold CAN-RUS 9pm ET

Fun fact: Canada and Russia met in the 2008 gold medal game and Jake Allen was in net for Canada. They won gold!

[NWTHabsFan]

I heard David Branch talk about the possibility of a CHL mini tourney. Hope they pull it off. One team of star draft eligible players from each of the three CHL leagues. A bit like a condensed CAN RUS super series that the CHL hosts each non-COVID fall. The US showcase is interesting too.

[NWTHabsFan]

St Louis won last night, so that does sort out one thing: the Habs will be seeded 17th for each round of the draft unless they pull off a pair of upsets and move into the league semis. That means the Habs will pick 17th, but with ARI forfeiting their pick, it will be the 16th actual pick in the first round. Seattle does slot in at third overall to make up the other team that will pick ahead of the Habs this draft.

The Habs do have a few picks traded from non-playoff teams (CHI-3rd, PHI-5th), so those picks will be locked in once the regular season ends shortly.

The Habs’ actual picks (1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 7th) and those traded from playoff teams (TBL-2nd, WSH-3rd, VGS-4th, STL-4th) will have to wait for at least the first two rounds before being locked in.

[folatre]

NW, yeah, you've got it. It will not be easy with the oddities involved with a lot of players not playing many games and scouts not seeing much of anyonein person, but if Timmins and the boys are being smart and thorough then there should be a good kid waiting there at #16.

Interestingly, Button's list that came out this week had Bolduc in the #16 slot. I have been imagining for a few months that Montreal picking in the mid-teens should perhaps be interested in and have a shot at L'Heureux. And they may well have that option; however, Button gave the feisty LW (I know he has played a lot of centre in the Q but I think he is a wing) a big bump and now he is #8 in that particular ranking list.

[GNick99]

How's these new rules work NWT? Say Buffalo picks first overall this year. Are they excluded from picking first next 2 drafts?

[NWTHabsFan]

May 15, 2021 16:11:10 GMT -5 GNick99 said:

How's these new rules work NWT? Say Buffalo picks first overall this year. Are they excluded from picking first next 2 drafts?

The changes are more watered down than many imagine. Starting in 2021, only 2 picks are up for the lottery instead of three. A team can only move up a max of 10 spots. Starting in 2022, a team can only win two lottery picks over a five year period.

Under your scenario, Buffalo is fine. The Rangers are the only team that could not win a lottery pick in 2022 if I have interpreted it right.

[GNick99]

May 15, 2021 19:52:13 GMT -5 NWTHabsFan said:

May 15, 2021 16:11:10 GMT -5 GNick99 said:

How's these new rules work NWT? Say Buffalo picks first overall this year. Are they excluded from picking first next 2 drafts?

The changes are more watered down than many imagine. Starting in 2021, only 2 picks are up for the lottery instead of three. A team can only move up a max of 10 spots. Starting in 2022, a team can only win two lottery picks over a five year period.

Under your scenario, Buffalo is fine. The Rangers are the only team that could not win a lottery pick in 2022 if I have interpreted it right.

Who gets first pick in 2021, say Anaheim? Are ineligible for Wright or Connor? Way I take it but could be wrong

[NWTHabsFan]

Two of the best draft prospects are playing for their respective countries at the World Men’s Championships in Latvia that started today. Power (CAN) and Beniers (USA) are both pretty well locks for top five picks (and a good shot at #1 to boot) and due to late 2002 birthdays, they missed out on playing at the recent U18s. They also make up two-thirds of the dynamic trio of high end draft eligible players that donned the maize and blue of Michigan this past season.

TSN has full coverage of the WCs.

[seventeen]

May 18, 2021 7:25:37 GMT -5 GNick99 said:

May 15, 2021 19:52:13 GMT -5 NWTHabsFan said:

The changes are more watered down than many imagine. Starting in 2021, only 2 picks are up for the lottery instead of three. A team can only move up a max of 10 spots. Starting in 2022, a team can only win two lottery picks over a five year period.

Under your scenario, Buffalo is fine. The Rangers are the only team that could not win a lottery pick in 2022 if I have interpreted it right.

Who gets first pick in 2021, say Anaheim? Are ineligible for Wright or Connor? Way I take it but could be wrong

Wright isn't available until 2022 (he turned 17 in January) and Bedard isn't available until 2023 (he turns 16 in July) He may be a generational player. To do what he did 4 months before turning 16 is eye-popping. He's going to grow and get stronger (currently 5-9, 165 lbs. Wright is what I'd call a potential franchise player. Really good, but not quite a Bedard. I'm splitting hairs here. Both are going to be great. Wright is 5-11 180 lbs so he has room to grow as well.

[GNick99]

I think there is a chance we end up in Wright sweepstakes.

After Weber's play went south we were terrible team. He is year older, solid chance he erodes more. Price is injury prone, if he is injured again we could get lottery pick. At

[folatre]

The draft lottery is before the big time tonight. This year there is no obvious franchise player, so I will not be as irritated if Bettman is announcing an Eastern Conference team with the #1 or #2 pick (okay, the Rangers would be gross).

Unless the Habs make it to the final four, Montreal will be picking 16th, no?

[NWTHabsFan]

Jun 2, 2021 9:33:23 GMT -5 folatre said:

The draft lottery is before the big time tonight. This year there is no obvious franchise player, so I will not be as irritated if Bettman is announcing an Eastern Conference team with the #1 or #2 pick (okay, the Rangers would be gross).

Unless the Habs make it to the final four, Montreal will be picking 16th, no?

Yup.

[Tankdriver]

Sabres picking 1 and Seattle 2. I think that is pretty fair. Buffalo deserves a little something for their pain and misery this year, but they need to put it together soon. Somehow I see Seattle taking the traditional route of building slowly and doing the opposite of Vegas. I see Seattle being crappy to start and trying to build long term. We shall see during the expansion draft.

[NWTHabsFan]

Jun 3, 2021 8:56:23 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

Sabres picking 1 and Seattle 2. I think that is pretty fair. Buffalo deserves a little something for their pain and misery this year, but they need to put it together soon. Somehow I see Seattle taking the traditional route of building slowly and doing the opposite of Vegas. I see Seattle being crappy to start and trying to build long term. We shall see during the expansion draft.

It was a pretty fair draft lottery with only Seattle and Anaheim switching spots. Buffalo also has had some bad luck when finishing last and watching other teams win the lottery on them. They need all the help they can get, even if the top end of this draft is not as strong as other recent drafts. They should snag Owen Power.

[Tankdriver]

Agree. Dahlin isn't necessarily a bust, but I think people expected more from him.

[GNick99]

Jun 2, 2021 9:33:23 GMT -5 folatre said:

The draft lottery is before the big time tonight. This year there is no obvious franchise player, so I will not be as irritated if Bettman is announcing an Eastern Conference team with the #1 or #2 pick (okay, the Rangers would be gross).

Unless the Habs make it to the final four, Montreal will be picking 16th, no?

Good chance we make final 4 though. I was hoping for Cornato but that be out the window.

[GNick99]

Jun 3, 2021 9:49:30 GMT -5 NWTHabsFan said:

Jun 3, 2021 8:56:23 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

Sabres picking 1 and Seattle 2. I think that is pretty fair. Buffalo deserves a little something for their pain and misery this year, but they need to put it together soon. Somehow I see Seattle taking the traditional route of building slowly and doing the opposite of Vegas. I see Seattle being crappy to start and trying to build long term. We shall see during the expansion draft.

It was a pretty fair draft lottery with only Seattle and Anaheim switching spots. Buffalo also has had some bad luck when finishing last and watching other teams win the lottery on them. They need all the help they can get, even if the top end of this draft is not as strong as other recent drafts. They should snag Owen Power.

We have 11 picks in this draft (at least for now) and 4 of them at top 70 picks. What do you think our chances are at acquiring good talent where this year was not scouted as usual. Or, would you trade a few for another Edmunston, Toffoli type players?

[Skilly]

Soooooo which USHL, NCAA, player is looking good at #28?

[folatre]

Given how Habs fans are enjoying more playoff hockey next week, which is great. The draft is really going to sneak up quickly this summer on typical fans.

Timmins needs to hit on at least a couple of the four picks falling in the top 70. I know it must be crazy with the limited in-person scouting and the lack of games that some kids got this year, but for a guy holding this job for nearly two decades that would suggest he is supposedly in the upper-echelon of amateur scouting directors. Prove it.

I imagine Timmins would love Sillinger, but that kid will be long gone.

[BadCompany]

Jun 8, 2021 15:12:16 GMT -5 folatre said:

Given how Habs fans are enjoying more playoff hockey next week, which is great. The draft is really going to sneak up quickly this summer on typical fans.

Timmins needs to hit on at least a couple of the four picks falling in the top 70. I know it must be crazy with the limited in-person scouting and the lack of games that some kids got this year, but for a guy holding this job for nearly two decades that would suggest he is supposedly in the upper-echelon of amateur scouting directors. Prove it.

I imagine Timmins would love Sillinger, but that kid will be long gone.

The Athletic recently published an article ranking each team's ability to draft and let's just Timmins did not come out looking too good. Even accounting for where the Habs have been picking. Of course, you can quibble about the metrics and definitions they used, but by and large Montreal has been at best, mediocre in drafting (according to this article).

theathletic.com/2499520/2021/05/31/which-nhl-teams-have-drafted-the-best-and-worst-since-2005/


From 2005-16:

* Percentage of picks who became NHLers: 41%, good for 28th in the league. Only Chicago and Vancouver were worse.

* From 2005 to 2016 only five team draft classes produced zero NHL games, with Montreal's 2008 class being one of them.

* Using a metric they call Game Score Value Added (GSVA), which purports to combine both traditional stats and analytics, Montreal finished 20th.

* Taking into account where a team drafted, and allotting points for each slot, they then came up with an expected GSVA, which is what teams should have gotten based on where they picked. Slightly better for Montreal here, as we move up to 16th in this score.

* When it comes to drafting outside the first round, allegedly Timmin's bread and butter, we once again come in at 20th.

Read into that what you will. 

[Willie Dog]

Jun 8, 2021 15:38:07 GMT -5 BadCompany said:

Jun 8, 2021 15:12:16 GMT -5 folatre said:

Given how Habs fans are enjoying more playoff hockey next week, which is great. The draft is really going to sneak up quickly this summer on typical fans.

Timmins needs to hit on at least a couple of the four picks falling in the top 70. I know it must be crazy with the limited in-person scouting and the lack of games that some kids got this year, but for a guy holding this job for nearly two decades that would suggest he is supposedly in the upper-echelon of amateur scouting directors. Prove it.

I imagine Timmins would love Sillinger, but that kid will be long gone.

The Athletic recently published an article ranking each team's ability to draft and let's just Timmins did not come out looking too good. Even accounting for where the Habs have been picking. Of course, you can quibble about the metrics and definitions they used, but by and large Montreal has been at best, mediocre in drafting (according to this article).

theathletic.com/2499520/2021/05/31/which-nhl-teams-have-drafted-the-best-and-worst-since-2005/


From 2005-16:

* Percentage of picks who became NHLers: 41%, good for 28th in the league. Only Chicago and Vancouver were worse.

* From 2005 to 2016 only five team draft classes produced zero NHL games, with Montreal's 2008 class being one of them.

* Using a metric they call Game Score Value Added (GSVA), which purports to combine both traditional stats and analytics, Montreal finished 20th.

* Taking into account where a team drafted, and allotting points for each slot, they then came up with an expected GSVA, which is what teams should have gotten based on where they picked. Slightly better for Montreal here, as we move up to 16th in this score.

* When it comes to drafting outside the first round, allegedly Timmin's bread and butter, we once again come in at 20th.

Read into that what you will. 

Almost half that time we had the worst AHL coach in history... almost zero players were produced... I'm not absolving Timmins but you give me a good farm coach and I'll give you a player pipeline to the big show.

[folatre]

Interesting, BC. Thanks.

For me the summary interpretation is mediocre drafting and bad development. Maybe things are getting better in the last 2-3 years, but overall the reality for many years has been that this organization has largely iced teams full of non homegrown players.

[NWTHabsFan]

Jun 8, 2021 15:12:16 GMT -5 folatre said:

Given how Habs fans are enjoying more playoff hockey next week, which is great. The draft is really going to sneak up quickly this summer on typical fans.

Timmins needs to hit on at least a couple of the four picks falling in the top 70. I know it must be crazy with the limited in-person scouting and the lack of games that some kids got this year, but for a guy holding this job for nearly two decades that would suggest he is supposedly in the upper-echelon of amateur scouting directors. Prove it.

I imagine Timmins would love Sillinger, but that kid will be long gone.

They might have had a chance at him falling to 16, but no way now. I had an early list for mid round options for a few of the rounds that now needs to be adjusted to late round picks.

Of course the options are better at 16 than 28+, but there still are some interesting forwards that I would like to see the Habs nab with that pick. I hope they do favour skilled forwards this draft, as that is definitely an area where the prospect pool could use a boost.

I really don’t see them making 11 picks this year, as Berg likes to move picks forward to the next draft. Other GMs may be more reluctant to do so this year given the strength of the next two drafts compared to 2021 and given the challenges of scouting this year.

[GNick99]

Jun 8, 2021 22:54:53 GMT -5 NWTHabsFan said:

Jun 8, 2021 15:12:16 GMT -5 folatre said:

Given how Habs fans are enjoying more playoff hockey next week, which is great. The draft is really going to sneak up quickly this summer on typical fans.

Timmins needs to hit on at least a couple of the four picks falling in the top 70. I know it must be crazy with the limited in-person scouting and the lack of games that some kids got this year, but for a guy holding this job for nearly two decades that would suggest he is supposedly in the upper-echelon of amateur scouting directors. Prove it.

I imagine Timmins would love Sillinger, but that kid will be long gone.

They might have had a chance at him falling to 16, but no way now. I had an early list for mid round options for a few of the rounds that now needs to be adjusted to late round picks.

Of course the options are better at 16 than 28+, but there still are some interesting forwards that I would like to see the Habs nab with that pick. I hope they do favour skilled forwards this draft, as that is definitely an area where the prospect pool could use a boost.

I really don’t see them making 11 picks this year, as Berg likes to move picks forward to the next draft. Other GMs may be more reluctant to do so this year given the strength of the next two drafts compared to 2021 and given the challenges of scouting this year.

Like to hit on a few picks. Restock our farm. Many graduated this year. Romanov, Caufield, Evans. Poehling looks like a lock next year.

[Tankdriver]

The thing with drafting is there are so many variables that determine what a success is. Draft year, position, who has final say in the pick, farm team coaching, pro team coaching, roster composition, draftee's home location/commitment, and of course the player himself. I am not absolving Timmins, but I do think you have to take everything into consideration. Today's example:

Romanov. A player who had to stay in Russia for two years and finish his contract. He comes to Montreal and even though most see him as a top 6 defenseman, the coaching staff has him seventh on the depth chart. Does that make it a bad pick? No. It just shows that a team has to be really committed to a players development after they are picked. It is also why we need to make space for Poehling and Fleury in the next year or two. You can't just clog up the roster with higher paid lower tier players. So I expect players like Lekhonen, Byron, Chariot, Staal to be replaced with younger, cheaper and less experienced players. There has to be a cycle of players or the development becomes stagnant.

[BadCompany]

Might be a good year to trade our 1st rounder, given how low it is, the uncertainty surrounding this whole year, and the fact that we still have two 2nd rounders.

Without having any inside knowledge as to what is going on, and going merely off the speculation that Drouin's personal problems are directly related to playing here, perhaps the best thing for him (and the organization) is to move to another team. A team with a less rabid fan base. What would Drouin and a 1st bring us back, I wonder?

[franko]

Jun 9, 2021 8:24:25 GMT -5 BadCompany said:

What would Drouin and a 1st bring us back, I wonder?

not much, if you went by what has been said about him on this board.

maybe the next whipping boy?

[seventeen]

Jun 8, 2021 15:38:07 GMT -5 BadCompany said:

Jun 8, 2021 15:12:16 GMT -5 folatre said:

Given how Habs fans are enjoying more playoff hockey next week, which is great. The draft is really going to sneak up quickly this summer on typical fans.

Timmins needs to hit on at least a couple of the four picks falling in the top 70. I know it must be crazy with the limited in-person scouting and the lack of games that some kids got this year, but for a guy holding this job for nearly two decades that would suggest he is supposedly in the upper-echelon of amateur scouting directors. Prove it.

I imagine Timmins would love Sillinger, but that kid will be long gone.

The Athletic recently published an article ranking each team's ability to draft and let's just Timmins did not come out looking too good. Even accounting for where the Habs have been picking. Of course, you can quibble about the metrics and definitions they used, but by and large Montreal has been at best, mediocre in drafting (according to this article).

theathletic.com/2499520/2021/05/31/which-nhl-teams-have-drafted-the-best-and-worst-since-2005/


From 2005-16:

* Percentage of picks who became NHLers: 41%, good for 28th in the league. Only Chicago and Vancouver were worse.

* From 2005 to 2016 only five team draft classes produced zero NHL games, with Montreal's 2008 class being one of them.

* Using a metric they call Game Score Value Added (GSVA), which purports to combine both traditional stats and analytics, Montreal finished 20th.

* Taking into account where a team drafted, and allotting points for each slot, they then came up with an expected GSVA, which is what teams should have gotten based on where they picked. Slightly better for Montreal here, as we move up to 16th in this score.

* When it comes to drafting outside the first round, allegedly Timmin's bread and butter, we once again come in at 20th.

Read into that what you will. 

I read that article when it surfaced and after I finished it I labelled it outdated. You will note that they stopped at the year 2016 because, rightfully so, it's hard to judge whether the guys picked since then have turned out or how well they've turned out.

Yet we have a pretty solid pipeline of talent and the obvious reason (slaps forehead with palm) is that all of Timmins' picks (most anyway) have come after that time frame.
The 2016 year included Sergachev and Mete and I think most people would judge that not bad. We didn't have a 2nd round pick.

2017- Poehling, Brook, Fleury, Primeau

2018 - KK, Ylonen, Romanov, Harris and Stapley

2019 - Caufield and Norlinder have shown enough to be called good picks, and Struble and Fairbrother are progressing but it's too early to call them successes.

2020 - Too early to judge, of course.though Mysak looks good so far and Guhle played well at the WJC's.

So, as you can see, there probably aren't many staffs who would have done better picking where Timmins and Churla did. A good friend of mine (Canuck fan) is already wondering if they didn't make a mistake picking Podkolzin instead of Caufield. There are probably quite a few fans of other teams asking themselves that same question, including Ranger fans. If you want to know who HAD a good scouting group before 2017, then I recommend the Athletic article.

[GNick99]

Jun 8, 2021 15:38:07 GMT -5 BadCompany said:

Jun 8, 2021 15:12:16 GMT -5 folatre said:

Given how Habs fans are enjoying more playoff hockey next week, which is great. The draft is really going to sneak up quickly this summer on typical fans.

Timmins needs to hit on at least a couple of the four picks falling in the top 70. I know it must be crazy with the limited in-person scouting and the lack of games that some kids got this year, but for a guy holding this job for nearly two decades that would suggest he is supposedly in the upper-echelon of amateur scouting directors. Prove it.

I imagine Timmins would love Sillinger, but that kid will be long gone.

The Athletic recently published an article ranking each team's ability to draft and let's just Timmins did not come out looking too good. Even accounting for where the Habs have been picking. Of course, you can quibble about the metrics and definitions they used, but by and large Montreal has been at best, mediocre in drafting (according to this article).

theathletic.com/2499520/2021/05/31/which-nhl-teams-have-drafted-the-best-and-worst-since-2005/


From 2005-16:

* Percentage of picks who became NHLers: 41%, good for 28th in the league. Only Chicago and Vancouver were worse.

* From 2005 to 2016 only five team draft classes produced zero NHL games, with Montreal's 2008 class being one of them.

* Using a metric they call Game Score Value Added (GSVA), which purports to combine both traditional stats and analytics, Montreal finished 20th.

* Taking into account where a team drafted, and allotting points for each slot, they then came up with an expected GSVA, which is what teams should have gotten based on where they picked. Slightly better for Montreal here, as we move up to 16th in this score.

* When it comes to drafting outside the first round, allegedly Timmin's bread and butter, we once again come in at 20th.

Read into that what you will. 

Timmins yeah, I ripped him a few times last 5 years or so. I think he has weakness for recognizing offensive talent. Cut down his percentages. Listening to Bouchard interviews he must have either final choice or significant impact. On our first pick anyway. I think since '18 we been alright drafting.