Defending the future

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

We are all aware of the lamentable state of the Habs blue line corpse [sic]. Is help on the way from within in the near future? If so, who and why? What is the time line?

[franko]

Coté -- because he's closest. The answer? The saviour? No. But he's be our #5 right now.

[Skilly]

Fischer ..... big, mean, a first rounder ... he needs to pan out (we can't afford another first line bust). And hopefully, he can turn into the stabilizing force needed back there, because Komi seems incapable to take the role on.

Emelin might never set foot on Canadian soil , and the others are borderline at best.

[oldhabsfan]

I find it hard to talk about a "favourite" but I find O'Byrne the most interesting, because of his size and pretty good skating, and the way he has been playing in the AHL while not far out of high school in terms of time. I notice that a regular Dogs watcher has described O'Byrne as the best-balanced defensive prospect he has seen with the Dogs, evidently including Komisarek. His play in the AHL seems to have been somewhat uneven, but I'd say that's to be expected. I expect him in the NHL in about two years.

Cote might be ready now, but we do have a few semi-marginal NHLers that he's competing with. It's difficult to forecast a big upside for his future development.

Emelin might be ready now, although he might need a period of adaptation to the North American game in the AHL. By report his performance in the RSL is still somewhat uneven,
but I'd say we need his hard-nosed style. I *really* liked his performance in the 2004-5
world junior championships. It seemed that the worse things got for the Russians, the more they played Emelin, and he scored a goal when his team was getting beat.

Valentenko I know much less about, but if as reported he plays like a bigger Emelin, that's great.

A lot will depend on how self-confident, adventurous and competitive Emelin and Valentenko are, and how much they like the Russian scene. I think the rule about AHL players paid over $75,000 needing to pass waivers is going to cause us problems with Russians, especially defencemen who need so much more seasoning, yet can make good money in the RSL. It could be that the reputation of the CH will help us.

I'm hopeful about Carle and Fischer but I find it hard to be very confident about their future development.

I don't expect anything from Archer as far as an NHL career goes.

I wouldn't be surprised if Gleed becomes a reliable stay-at-home defenceman in the NHL, a number 5-6, maybe eventually better.

I haven't lost hope for Korpikari. I'd like to know more about him and why the good opinions he has won in devleopment camps here haven't been matched by the opinions of his coach in Finland.

[Bob]

skilly said:

Fischer ..... big, mean, a first rounder ... he needs to pan out (we can't afford another first line bust). And hopefully, he can turn into the stabilizing force needed back there, because Komi seems incapable to take the role on.

Emelin might never set foot on Canadian soil , and the others are borderline at best.

Fischer... mean?

I think you need to do your homework on this one. Fischer wasn't drafted to be a mean defenseman. You are barking up the wrong tree here.

Emelin, by far, is our best all-around prospect... defensive ability, offensive ability and mean streak included. Others may excel more at one aspect of the game but Emelin is strong all three areas

[franko]

bob said:

Emelin, by far, is our best all-around prospect... defensive ability, offensive ability and mean streak included. Others may excel more at one aspect of the game but Emelin is strong all three areas

But as mentioned may never play here. My vote was for the one I thought most likely to be here soonest. I'd retract for Emelin if there was hope he'd be here within 2 years.

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

franko said:

bob said:

Emelin, by far, is our best all-around prospect... defensive ability, offensive ability and mean streak included. Others may excel more at one aspect of the game but Emelin is strong all three areas

But as mentioned may never play here. My vote was for the one I thought most likely to be here soonest. I'd retract for Emelin if there was hope he'd be here within 2 years.

An article I translated some months back:

Thursday Nov. 16, 2006

Emelin, the next Rivet?

Mathias Brunet

Trevor Timmins returned from Helsinki where he saw Alexei Emelin, one of the Canadiens most promising defense prospects, at work.

In spite of his mere 20 years, Emelin was on the Russian national team at the Karjala Cup, an annual international tournament involving Russia, Sweden, the Czech Republic, and Finland.

"He was youngest on his club but they trusted him in delicate defensive situations. He was used a lot on the penalty kill," the chief scout of the Canadiens confided yesterday. "They also put him on the ice with 20 seconds left in a 3-2 game."

Russia won all its games and Emelin finished the tournament with a differential of +3.

Emelin had caused much talk last year at the World Junior Championship by proving to be the pillar of his club on defense and deserving of a place on the tournament all-star team. He is especially known for his toughness.

This year he was given even more responsibilities on Togliatti, his Russian Elite League club, and was even deemed worthy of being an assistant captain.

With uncertainty surrounding the future of Sheldon Souray, Andrei Markov and Craig Rivet, Emelin could become a major component for the Habs in the near future. "The young man wants to come play in North America," said Timmins. "But it's first necessary that the NHL manage to reach an agreement with the Russian Federation, so that we can have him as of next year, because in theory he is still under contract with Togliatti for another season."

In a burst of enthusiasm last year, Vakourov, who is miserly with compliments, had dared to compare Emelin to Vladimir Konstantinov, an old Detroit Red Wings star. Timmins prefers to play it cautiously.

"I don't know if he will become a star, who knows how a player will develop, but for the moment, let's say that he could become a fourth defenseman for us, or perhaps a fifth."

Fourth or fifth Habs defenseman; he is a Bouillon or a Rivet, and perhaps even better if the he develops well. "Any time that a scout can unearth an NHL caliber defenseman in the third round (2004), he is blessed," said Timmins.

The Habs head of scouting likes the comparison with Vitaly Vishnevski of the Atlanta Thrashers, who plays between 15 and 20 minutes a game and who, year after year, is ranked in the NHL top ten for hits.

Could Emelin, 6 feet and 190 pounds, reach the NHL as of next year? "Physically, he would be ready," answers Timmins. "He must however learn the language and our system of play. In Russia the rinks are larger and the defensemen have more time to make their passes because they are less pressured by opposing forwards. But he will adapt more easily than others because he is very strong physically."

[seventeen]

The kiss of death, comparing Emelin to Rivet. I see that neither Vakourov nor Timmins compared him to Rivet, just Brunet, who's usually a decent judge. Oh well, we all make mistakes.

Of that whole group I think Emelin and Valentenko could be the best, under the assumption they can be signed. They're learning in a league that is better than the AHL right now, so no problem there. Adapting to the smaller ice and to the language will be the challenge, so the sooner they arrive the better, but the talent, puck sense, skating and attitude are there. O'Byrne could be right up there with them, though he's more of a project. Fischer isn't getting the ice time to develop quickly. Next year, if Erik Johnson is gone, Fischer will take on a larger role and develop faster. After that season, we'd better get him to Hamilton.

The most important guy in our system right now, bar none, (IMHO of course) is Jaroslav Halak. Play him a full year in the AHL and perhaps most of another. Watch how he is in training camp. If great, start playing him ASAP. If not back to Hamilton for most of that second full year. He's going to be our Ryan Miller. I can tell because I want it to be so.

[montreal]

I'm a big fan of O'Byrne, got to see him play a lot over the years and I think that if he continues to progress he will be a Hab within a few years.

I have been watching a lot of Fischer and really like what I see. Very smart positionally, solid in his own end but I've been disappointed in his offensive game so far, considering I heard so much about it. That said he's years away most likely, so he'll have time to work on things and round out his game. Imo he has the highest upside, if he puts it all together perhaps he could be a top pairing guy imo.

Emelin we have to find a way to get him over here. We are thin on D prospects but even thinner on LD's. Emelin has struggled to produce offense this year and he's been out with a knee injury but hopefully Bob can find a way to get him over here. I've heard that there's been some progress between the NHL and Russia, so perhaps there's hope that we can get him over here within 2 years.

Valentenko I don't know what to make, looked fine at the wjc's and remax games, like the fact that at 19 he's a regular with Neftekhimik but he's under contract for another 2 years after this season. I know that they wanted him to come over this past summer to play a year in the chl but he chose to stay in Russia. I would hold off on him until he's over here, Konstantin Korneev is having a career year in the RSL and we still own his rights, but I never got the impression he would come over.

Korpikari needs to be signed this summer or we lose his rights. Would like to see him in Hamilton next year if possible, who knows what managements plans are with him.

Carle is an interesting prospect, racks up the points, 69 last year and 56 so far this year, although imo it has benefited him by playing with two of the top forwards in the Q in Perreault and Beauregard plus they get to beat up both St John's teams. That said he is offensively skilled, moves the puck well and seems to be solid all round. He should be in Hamilton next year since he was drafted as late birthdate, so it will be interesting to see what he can do.

Gleed has gotten good praise from Coach Lever in Hamilton and I've heard he's either the top defensemen in Cincinnati or one of. He was solid at Cornell, a smart hard working defensemen. I don't know if he will be an nhler but he should be a good depth guy to have around.

Cote I could see fighting for the 7th spot next year, he is a bit on the slow side and not much offense but he's solid in his own end and will play physical.

Paquet is a guy that will fly under the radar but for a 7th round pick he could turn into something interesting. He's big and only 19 so he will likely get bigger. He's got the frame of Hainsey, tall and good size but skates well with good speed. It ends there though, he's more the opposite of Hainsey in that he's physical and more of a stay at home type or his offense hasn't really developed cause Clarkson is known for there offense. Paquet's problem is that he can't stay out of the box, he's already racked up 200 pims in his NCAA career in some 60ish games. He does play on the top pairing, which is impressive for a sophomore, especially since he was a true freshman last year like Fischer is this year. Paquet is years away most likely but it will be interesting to see how he progresses. He's a Quebec City native.

Cepek is having a brutal year with a very bad Portland team. He's a -30 on a team full of minus players. Hard to say what to expect him from him. He'll get another year in the dub and then we'll see what management thinks of him.

Benoit has improved this year but needs to get stronger and improve his defensive play.

Sanford I would be surprised if they bring him back, too bad cause he has good offensive skills, was one of the few defensemen that could carry the puck up ice and create offense. But off ice problems might have the team leary of bringing him back.

[chief6]

Of the guys on the list, I only see the Hamilton guys regularly, so I can only comment on them -- and I have at length in game threads.

Again, of the AHL guys only, I think Ryan O'Byrne has the biggest upside, and the most potential. He's the best rookie defenseman I've ever seen in Hamilton, which comes with a caveat that he may plateau and he'll never be seen in Montreal. I don't see that as the case though. Right now, I can envision O'Byrne becoming a number two defenseman in the NHL, and I consider it a treat to be able to watch his progress.

To start, I have a man-crush on J-P Cote. He's my all-time favourite Bulldogs player, so I watch him with some rosey glasses. That said, I think he should be in the NHL right now. He could eventually be a fourth man in the NHL, probably not much more. He killed penalties in his last stint in Montreal, which was very nice to watch.

Andrew Archer is a very good defenseman, but injuries are killing him. He's very smart on the ice, and doesn't get caught out of position. He has a decent amount of physicality in his game, but not an overly noteworthy amount. If he could stay healthy, I could see him playing a role as a useful six or seven in the NHL. He probably couldn't handle more than 12 or 13 minutes there, but he'd do well. Or, he'll spend his career in the AHL and captain teams for the next five or six years.

Jon Gleed has played five games in the AHL, having spent most of the year in the ECHL. He's up with Hamilton right now, and he started last night's game as a forward, but moved to defense when Cote was given a misconduct penalty. He didn't log many minutes, but didn't play poorly.

I find it interesting that Gleed is in the poll, but Andre Benoit is not. Benoit logs a lot of minutes for Hamilton, and he is slowly, very slowly, getting better. His offensive instincts are good. He's excellent in the offensive zone, but needs more time to become a power play quarterback. His first pass needs work (you can apply that to all of Hamilton's defensemen), and while he could become a good Dan Boyle-type of player, I don't see it happening. He's getting physical, and not being dominated down low, which is good since he's so small. But I don't see him progressing beyond the AHL.

[BadCompany]

In my heart, I love them all.

(but if I had to Sophie's choice one, it would be O'byrne that I would keep)

[Disgruntled70sHab]

Fischer. They was dubbed the tag "Mr. Hockey" for some reason.

Cheers.

[blny]

Carle is intriguing. There's a place for him in the new NHL if he's smart. Emelin and Valentenko need to get over here. That won't happen until a deal with the IIHF is in place though. O'Byrne isn't flashy, but he could be a very reliable player for the third pairing. I've heard good things about his all around game, and with his size and decent skating he's got a shot.

[duster]

I do have a preference for Emelin since I believe we need a defenseman with a mean streak. However, I think our prospects on defense are not of the same calibre as Kostitsyn, Price etc...and it's something that should be addressed as a top priority. The team needs another Markov in the system i.e a potential No1 or No 2 defenseman, in a big way. For years, I've advocated moving up in the draft or taking advantage of a good draft position to get such a player ( Johnson, Staal...). Right now, all I see are journeymen and a lot of wishful thinking. In fact, for the foreseable future, we are almost totally dependent on a trade or free agent signing for a replacement or even a slight upgrade on Bouillon or Rivet, let alone Souray and Markov.

[montreal]

duster said:

I do have a preference for Emelin since I believe we need a defenseman with a mean streak. However, I think our prospects on defense are not of the same calibre as Kostitsyn, Price etc...and it's something that should be addressed as a top priority. The team needs another Markov in the system i.e a potential No1 or No 2 defenseman, in a big way. For years, I've advocated moving up in the draft or taking advantage of a good draft position to get such a player ( Johnson, Staal...). Right now, all I see are journeymen and a lot of wishful thinking. In fact, for the foreseable future, we are almost totally dependent on a trade or free agent signing for a replacement or even a slight upgrade on Bouillon or Rivet, let alone Souray and Markov.

We sorely need to get Emelin over here at some point, we do need somone that plays an ultra aggressive style. O'Byrne has somewhat of a mean streak, he's not as physical as he was when he first came to the NCAA, cause it was taking him out of position or putting him in the box too often and he was needed on the ice. In Hamilton he's often one of the more physical players on the team, I've seen some bit time hits from him although at other times I've seen him not play physical at all but it could be a confidence thing since he is a rookie, yet he's played in every game in all situations and even is on the ice late in a game while trying to hold a lead.

Fischer at this point is not even really worth discussing cause he's so far away, just like most players that were drafted 7 months ago. With Fischer his upside is huge imo but who knows if he will ever come close to it. I like what I've seen from him so we'll see how he continues to develop/progress. That said I think he could end up a top pairing D if his offensive game great improves, although I'm talking a good 5-7 years from now.

[seventeen]

It'll have to be sooner or he's gone. You can't 'develop' a guy just in time to see him leave as a UFA. I suspect he'll take a big jump next year, when Johnson is gone.

[chief6]

duster said:

I think our prospects on defense are not of the same calibre as Kostitsyn, Price etc...and it's something that should be addressed as a top priority. The team needs another Markov in the system i.e a potential No1 or No 2 defenseman, in a big way.

I find this interesting, mostly because I feel like it's the exact opposite situation happening. Kostitsyn may develop into a prime-time offensive player in the National Hockey League, but I don't see any of Hamilton's other forwards in that role. Hamilton has a lot of Steve Begin types right now. Great penalty killers, great defensive forwards, fast forwards, and guys that chip in with a goal every now and then. Outside of Kostitsyn, there hasn't been a real go-to guy this year other than maybe Mikhail Grabovski. Duncan Milroy was hot to start the year, but has cooled of significantly, and looks to be a third or fourth-line player at the NHL level. Jonathan Ferland, as much as I love his game, is just a slower Max Lapierre. Kyle Chipchura should be a wonderful second or third-line centre in the NHL, but he isn't a big-time threat to score, and I'm not sure he ever will be. Corey Locke set OHL scoring records, but finds areas of the perimiter to hide in that even Richard Zednik would envy and has almost no chance of making the NHL.

On the blue line, I said it above. I think J-P Cote should be in the NHL, and while he isn't going to replace Markov or Souray, he's a fine defenseman for a team that essentially rolls all six guys. Markov and Souray are very good defensemen, but I'm not sure I'd rank either of them in the top 30 in the league, and other than Souray's goal-scoring, the only time either of them are game-breakers is when they're making a gaffe that costs Montreal the game. To my mind, Ryan O'Byrne projects as a better defenseman than either Markov or Souray. Further, everyone seems to believe Emelin will be a stud defenseman if he ever comes over, and most people in North American haven't seen him play in more than two years.

So by my count, that's two NHL-ready defensemen in Emelin and Cote, one that should crack Montreal's roster in 2008-09 in O'Byrne, and Fischer, who could go either way at this point. Up front, Andrei Kostitsyn is probably the only player in Hamilton this year that will score with any regularity in the NHL, and as good as they are, I don't see Jaroslav Halak or Yann Danis as better options that Montreal's current goalies. Montreal needs to draft and develop some guys that can score.

[montreal]

seventeen said:

It'll have to be sooner or he's gone. You can't 'develop' a guy just in time to see him leave as a UFA. I suspect he'll take a big jump next year, when Johnson is gone.

You can't rush him and where would he go? He'll be 19 next year and I'd be shocked if he left before his junior year unless he progresses by leaps and bounds next year. Even if he stays all 4 years, that would still only make him 21 when he turns pro. A year at least if not 2 in the AHL to get adjusted to the much longer schedule would likely be in order. Having him in the lineup at 23 still gives him a few years with the Habs before they have to worry about UFA age. Plus it will be a new cba by then, who knows what will happen.

[duster]

duster said:

I think our prospects on defense are not of the same calibre as Kostitsyn, Price etc...and it's something that should be addressed as a top priority. The team needs another Markov in the system i.e a potential No1 or No 2 defenseman, in a big way.

chief6 said:

I find this interesting, mostly because I feel like it's the exact opposite situation happening. Kostitsyn may develop into a prime-time offensive player in the National Hockey League, but I don't see any of Hamilton's other forwards in that role. Hamilton has a lot of Steve Begin types right now. Great penalty killers, great defensive forwards, fast forwards, and guys that chip in with a goal every now and then. Outside of Kostitsyn, there hasn't been a real go-to guy this year other than maybe Mikhail Grabovski. Duncan Milroy was hot to start the year, but has cooled of significantly, and looks to be a third or fourth-line player at the NHL level. Jonathan Ferland, as much as I love his game, is just a slower Max Lapierre. Kyle Chipchura should be a wonderful second or third-line centre in the NHL, but he isn't a big-time threat to score, and I'm not sure he ever will be. Corey Locke set OHL scoring records, but finds areas of the perimiter to hide in that even Richard Zednik would envy and has almost no chance of making the NHL.

In a way I agree with you. Kostitsyn and Grabovski excluded, I don't see any other forward in Hamilton being anything else but a grinder. The ones that were drafted that can score are already with the big club (Higgins, Plekanec) or about to move up (Kostitsyn). Meanwhile, we draft Emelin who can't play here yet, and O'Byrne who, by default, now becomes our top defensive prospect. The rest of our defense in Hamilton consists of marginal picks or career AHL players (Jancevski, Biron, Archer etc...). None are potential NHL calibre. Hardly what you call quality defensive depth.

chief6 said:

On the blue line, I said it above. I think J-P Cote should be in the NHL, and while he isn't going to replace Markov or Souray, he's a fine defenseman for a team that essentially rolls all six guys. Markov and Souray are very good defensemen, but I'm not sure I'd rank either of them in the top 30 in the league, and other than Souray's goal-scoring, the only time either of them are game-breakers is when they're making a gaffe that costs Montreal the game. To my mind, Ryan O'Byrne projects as a better defenseman than either Markov or Souray. Further, everyone seems to believe Emelin will be a stud defenseman if he ever comes over, and most people in North American haven't seen him play in more than two years.

From what I've seen of J-P Cote and O'Byrne, they have nowhere near the talent level of a Markov for example. I guess it's a matter of opinion if any of them will be a No 1 or franchise defenseman on an NHL team. I doubt it. I see Cote as a No 6 defenseman at best. O'Byrne is still developing and I'll admit he's improved considerably since his Nanaimo days so it's hard to tell. Regardless, he not considered and never has been considered a blue chip prospect on defense. He's no Johnson or Staal or Bourdon etc...

chief6 said:

So by my count, that's two NHL-ready defensemen in Emelin and Cote, one that should crack Montreal's roster in 2008-09 in O'Byrne, and Fischer, who could go either way at this point. Up front, Andrei Kostitsyn is probably the only player in Hamilton this year that will score with any regularity in the NHL, and as good as they are, I don't see Jaroslav Halak or Yann Danis as better options that Montreal's current goalies. Montreal needs to draft and develop some guys that can score.

My point was not a lack of bottom pair NHL ready defensemen. The team can get a defenseman of that calibre easily enough either through waivers or by trading a low round draft pick. My point is we haven't drafted or acquired a potential blue chip prospect on defense since Hainsey and Komisarek, and that puts the team in a real bind not just now, but for the near future. To trade for one is very expensive in terms of assets so drafting is the way to go. As Dan Linn pointed out, Fischer may turn out to be a good one...but in 5 to 7 years. Who else do we have? Carle?

When I look at recent draftees such as Latendresse, Kostitsyn, Grabovski, Maxwell and so on, I don't see them as being drafted for their defensive abilities. They were picked so they could fill the net.