Ukraine

[jkr]

I came across this article today that I feel is worth reading. A few things -

- It's very long, took me almost an hour to get through it

- It paints a damning picture of the American political system, particularly of the Republican party and a very pessimistic view of the conflict.

- I found this on a site called The Bulwark that I have been reading for several months. A simplistic description of their viewpoint could be that of moderate conservatives.

sethabramson.substack.com/p/the-ten-hardest-truths-about-the

[Willie Dog]

Mar 13, 2022 9:46:05 GMT -5 jkr said:

I came across this article today that I feel is worth reading. A few things -

- It's very long, took me almost an hour to get through it

- It paints a damning picture of the American political system, particularly of the Republican party and a very pessimistic view of the conflict.

- I found this on a site called The Bulwark that I have been reading for several months. A simplistic description of their viewpoint could be that of moderate conservatives.

sethabramson.substack.com/p/the-ten-hardest-truths-about-the

I said it before and I'll say it again... Ronald Reagan is spinning in his grave

[Cranky]

I read it and it's unhinged immersion in Trump Derangememt Syndrom makes it half useless.

Trump is as simple as it gets....a mid-low range intellect with oversized ego. Immense ego. That's it. He was and is an opportunist that placed himself on the opposite end of the culture war that he did NOT create, but absolutely using. All else is flagilating pseudo intellect word salad that puts way too much content into a empty void.

To base a huge portion of geopolitics on that is not really an "open" look at facts on the ground. It doesn't make them wrong, but it colours them uselessly.

Right now, simple facts. Putin is smarter and more ruthless then anyone he faces in the west. He has a long term plan that is going to take full advantage of the Wests weakness. The core of that weakness is the two ends of self interests which are political and industrial AND it's Wests masses soft core self interest.

Worse, with weak US leadership, there is no hard core threat to Putin. Without the US leading the military threat, there is absolutely nothing anyone can do to stop Putin.

All one has to do is get past the media lollipoop that we are getting fed and look at what's really happening. It's right here, right now.

I already wrote what Putins objectives are. It boils down to one and only one word....DOMINANCE.

So here we are....and then ask the simplest question. Who in here wants to go to war with Russia? Anybody? Nobody? That's the end of the conversation. All else is BS.

[jkr]

Yes, should have mentioned that in my original post. I can't stand Trump but the amount of time spent talking about him seemed too much off topic. I haven't read this person's books but judging by the titles, I can guess the gist of them.

Still, for me, it made very grim reading.

[Cranky]

Mar 13, 2022 15:04:13 GMT -5 jkr said:

Yes, should have mentioned that in my original post. I can't stand Trump but the amount of time spent talking about him seemed too much off topic. I haven't read this person's books but judging by the titles, I can guess the gist of them.

Still, for me, it made very grim reading.

It's unhinged how much credit the media/left are giving him and how much effort to discredit him.

Anything he says is deliberatly misquoted or taken out of context thinking that if they are not on full unhingined scream mode, somehow they failed humanity. It simply exarcebates the political devide because they wont stop at trump without pot shots or outright hatred at anyone who voted for him. Of course they are always suprised that their righteous hatred is not changing anyones position.

If Trump was as evil and as smart as they think he is, he would be in power...but he's not. The left/ media just can't get around seperating at what is versus what they "feel".

About the only IBS inducing reason i would want him in power now is NOT because of his immense intellect and his ability to outsmart Putin, that would be an embarressingly laughable assumption, but his immense ego would not stand for Putin pushing him around. Note, pushing HIM around, not in the name of Western values for freedom and justice. Just him.

I'm very sure that Putin wouldn't risk it....simply because there is just a four year wait period before he was out of power and Putin can very well afford in the "big picture" delay, but i also know that I'd probably lose what is left of my hairline and put the finishing touches on my nuclear bunker.

What i do know right this minute...is that Puta owns us....and no one in sight in the US that can counter him.

Grim reality for all of us...

(For the record, i was and still are a Rubio "fan" because he's the closest thing they have to a Harper clone. Unfortunatly Trump hasn't dropped dead and most likely replacement is DeSantis. Pretty sad state of American "choices".)

[Disgruntled70sHab]

Mar 13, 2022 9:46:05 GMT -5 jkr said:

I came across this article today that I feel is worth reading. A few things -

- It's very long, took me almost an hour to get through it

- It paints a damning picture of the American political system, particularly of the Republican party and a very pessimistic view of the conflict.

- I found this on a site called The Bulwark that I have been reading for several months. A simplistic description of their viewpoint could be that of moderate conservatives.

sethabramson.substack.com/p/the-ten-hardest-truths-about-the

IMHO, I feel it important not to confuse traditional conservatism with the current Republican Party ... for the first time in history the US is now considered a 'backsliding democracy', which means they're on the road to becoming an autocracy, and that's largely due to the Republican Party's approach to politics ... the Washington Post is a left-wing newspaper, but I also read right-wing material, as well ... here's a cut and paste to an opinion I agree with in the WP ...

The GOP has become an insurgent outlier in American politics. It is ideologically extreme; scornful of compromise; unmoved by conventional understanding of facts, evidence and science; and dismissive of the legitimacy of its political opposition. 

They've got a long road ahead of them if they're looking to restore traditional conservatism/republicanism ... again, this is only an opinion ...

Cheers. 

[Cranky]

I don't buy a single word of what Washington Post is selling. Or the New York Times. They vary from left to far left with an occasional right wing article to claim their are "balanced".

The problem is that people won't see past their confirmation bias. INCLUDING myself.

Right now, unlike any time in history, all the media has to play to their audience to stay alive. 95% of those who subscribe to NYT identify themselves as Democrats. If they dare publish anything positive about Republicans there is an outcry and threats of mass subscription cancelltions. They have fired editors that don't tow the line. Same thing for WaPo.

No better from any right wing rag.

As for the political system, it's only broken of the Republicans win and obviously works great if the Democrats win. Facing a loss in both houses, right now there is overdrive how it's broken....in order to sell the narrative that any Republican win is illegitimate. And of course, the exact same feeling from the other side.

They have a very serious issue with partisan politics and it's not getting better. It's relentlessly fed by their media and politicians...without an end in sight. Worse, it's starting to creep up here....

Meanwhile...back to Ukraine. I wonder if there is a chance in hell that there is a political solution. I really don't see it and doubt that Putin is done....but we can hope. ..

[Disgruntled70sHab]

Mar 13, 2022 20:07:47 GMT -5 Cranky said:

As for the political system, it's only broken of the Republicans win and obviously works great if the Democrats win. Facing a loss in both houses, right now there is overdrive how it's broken....in order to sell the narrative that any Republican win is illegitimate. And of course, the exact same feeling from the other side.

Again, just an opinion, mate, but any voting system that doesn't properly represent the majority of the people, has to be replaced ... the American Electoral College and the 'First Past the Post' systems, do not properly represent the electorate ... Trudeau made it an election platform, and failed miserably on it, but it didn't matter at that point ... at the time he made the promise to do it, he was in 3rd place behind Harper and Layton ... once he had a majority, FPTP seemed just fine again, so no need to change it ... as for the Electoral College, Clinton had 2.87 million (Wiki) more votes than Trump, but she failed to have the required Electoral College votes to win ... Trump ascends to the US throne even though he's behind by almost three million votes ... it's no better in Canada, and we have to come up with a system that represents the majority of voters ...

They have a very serious issue with partisan politics and it's not getting better. It's relentlessly fed by their media and politicians...without an end in sight. Worse, it's starting to creep up here....

It's already here ... if you're not a liberal you're a bigot, and if you're not a conservative you're a pussy ... that's where we are and we had help getting there ... the media, in general, excel at pointing out what makes us different, but don't focus enough on how much we're the same ... abuse of social media has also further divided the left and right ... as an aside, when you have time look up how many nationalist governments there are globally ...

Meanwhile...back to Ukraine. I wonder if there is a chance in hell that there is a political solution. I really don't see it and doubt that Putin is done....but we can hope. ..

There should be concern over the former Soviet satellite countries, as Putin aspires to be Tsar ...

Cheers.

[Cranky]

Mar 13, 2022 22:38:23 GMT -5 Disgruntled70sHab said:

Mar 13, 2022 20:07:47 GMT -5 Cranky said:

As for the political system, it's only broken of the Republicans win and obviously works great if the Democrats win. Facing a loss in both houses, right now there is overdrive how it's broken....in order to sell the narrative that any Republican win is illegitimate. And of course, the exact same feeling from the other side.

Again, just an opinion, mate, but any voting system that doesn't properly represent the majority of the people, has to be replaced ... the American Electoral College and the 'First Past the Post' systems, do not properly represent the electorate ... Trudeau made it an election platform, and failed miserably on it, but it didn't matter at that point ... at the time he made the promise to do it, he was in 3rd place behind Harper and Layton ... once he had a majority, FPTP seemed just fine again, so no need to change it ... as for the Electoral College, Clinton had 2.87 million (Wiki) more votes than Trump, but she failed to have the required Electoral College votes to win ... Trump ascends to the US throne even though he's behind by almost three million votes ... it's no better in Canada, and we have to come up with a system that represents the majority of voters ...

They have a very serious issue with partisan politics and it's not getting better. It's relentlessly fed by their media and politicians...without an end in sight. Worse, it's starting to creep up here....

It's already here ... if you're not a liberal you're a bigot, and if you're not a conservative you're a pussy ... that's where we are and we had help getting there ... the media, in general, excel at pointing out what makes us different, but don't focus enough on how much we're the same ... abuse of social media has also further divided the left and right ... as an aside, when you have time look up how many nationalist governments there are globally ...

Meanwhile...back to Ukraine. I wonder if there is a chance in hell that there is a political solution. I really don't see it and doubt that Putin is done....but we can hope. ..

There should be concern over the former Soviet satellite countries, as Putin aspires to be Tsar ...

Cheers.

If I had billions, like Seventeen has, I would create a really radical media. Absolutely radical. A middle of the road media that just gives us the facts. Imagine that, just the facts.

I'm economic and safety conservative and mostly neutral social agnostic but for some reason, I'm a racist if I don't tow the lefts "white privilege" line or a baby killer leftard if I don't tow the rights line. When the hell did it become OK for either of them to become so unhinged at my views? Pretty simple actually, it's 24/7 on the internet, media and politicians mouths. We are nothing if we are not part of either tribe.

Media and politicians....I'd fair trade them for braying donkeys.

As for Putin, he's at Polands door step. I'm sure tomorrow Biden, Trudeau and the West will wave their fingers even harder...then the media will feed us extra big lollipops news to quell our anger. Did you hear the latest lollipop war altering Western weapon? No Coke-Cola for Russians....

[Cranky]

This is an interesting article in that Greece is getting shipload of supplies and a staging area for 3,000 US troops.

A couple of thoughts....

As a long standing member of NATO, I'm not sure why Greece would have AK-47's. Or Soviet mad RPG's. I know that Bulgaria/Romania/Yugoslavia as former satellites had enormous warehouses of them post Soviet breakup, but Greece? Maybe it was in exchange for some souvlaki dinner coupons. The RPG-18's are not going to do squat against heavy armour but they may be able to penetrate troop carriers and take out heavy tank tracks.

Ongoing discussions for getting F-35s but obviously costs are very high for a country struggling to come out of economic hell. Of course the joke will be that broken economy Greece can get F-35's but not Canada.

Greece has the best conventional air force it the region and any US support for getting cut rate F-35 may have a huge cost associated because they WILL be asked to supply cover for Bulgarian and Romanian forces. Without US DIRECT involvement and leading the sky dominance, Greece air force is going to be fodder. 4th generation fighters don't stand much of a chance against S-300's and S-400's unless the Americans come in and clean up the Russian SAM's.

3,000 American troops is nice and a decent commitment but that's fodder unless they also get a huge fleet of A=10's and associated SAM clean-up equipment.

The Greeks have been holding a lot exercises with American Naval and Air forces and they know each other well so I can see a northern US air base in Greece, which is minutes away from the Black Sea and a 20 minute run to Romania. Why Greece and not inside Bulgaria and Romania? Because fighters need a hell of a lot of maintenance for each hour of flight. Something like 35 to 50 hours per flying hour. Greece has a big fleet of F-16's and advanced system support so it's a natural support/staging area. it has about 170 F-16s and about 33,000 air force personal (Canada 15,500). Greece is at 18th on the planet and rated about 3rd overall in Europe.

Turkey wont like any of this. *Pffft*

The war in Ukraine has forced a rethinking in NATO strategy and this will impact Greece’s position within the Alliance.



By deciding to send to Ukraine military equipment compatible with the invaded country’s systems, 20,000 AK-47-type assault rifles, 815 Soviet-made RPG-18 anti-tank missile launchers and 122 missiles for Czech-made RM-70 multiple rocket launchers, Greece showed from the start its intention to align itself with NATO’s indirect assistance to Ukraine. The government is also preparing a further upgrade of the northeastern port of Alexandroupoli.

As Kathimerini revealed last Thursday, the US will use Alexandroupoli as a staging point for some 3,000 personnel and equipment that will be deployed in neighboring Bulgaria and Romania, which borders Ukraine. It is a matter of days, even hours, before ships carrying personnel and equipment dock in Alexandroupoli.

Bulgaria and Romania also have a Black Sea coastline, which makes them NATO frontline states in this conflict.

Already last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, from Vilnius, Lithuania, went a step further from the activation of NATO’s Response Force and spoke of a permanent stationing of NATO forces in its eastern flank. The collective defense of Eastern Europe is being upgraded, with more boots on the ground. With the port of Alexandroupoli and the Souda naval base on the island of Crete, Greece owns a valuable passage to both the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean, where there is a Russian naval presence.

Greece will be called upon to contribute ground forces in NATO’s reaction force and its Air Force is already contributing with patrols over the Bulgarian and Romanian coastlines, as well as over North Macedonia.

That the United States place such an importance on Greece’s role in NATO is interesting, given that Turkey, to the east, and with its own extensive Black Sea coastline, has always been considered the pivotal ally in the area.

www.ekathimerini.com/news/1179620/greek-role-within-nato-is-upgraded/

[jkr]

Found this article about the balancing act Belarus is playing right now. Apparently their army is small and inexperienced. The number in the article seemed small to me for a country of almost 10 million but I dontbknow what the norm is for other countries.

www.politico.eu/article/belarus-ukraine-war-russia-alexander-lukashenko-dodges-weaves/

[Cranky]

Lukashenko is trying to survive because he knows that without Putins support, he's a lamp post decoration. He doesn't help Putin, he's done. He sends his people to slaughter, he's done. Poor him. The obvious solution is to beat everyone to the punch and buy some rope.

I heard the address to Parliament by Zelenski and my heart bleeds for him and Ukraine. I can't look at the news without seeing red.

I don't know what will happen if NATO gets involved. I don't think anyone does. In events like these, there is so much uncertainty and unintended consequences that everything is on the table. From immidiate withdrawel by Putin to a nuclear exchange.

While I'm not hiding under the bed in fear of Puta, his very existence brings out blood thirst for some bat practice, i'm not going to sacrifice Ottawa for Kiev. Nor hundreds of thousands of Canadians in our military. I speak for myself but i don't think anyone of us does. I'm all for taking the economic pain, which we have to an extent and kind of useless because it's not going far enough to destroy the Russian economy.

Lastly....think about what we feel about helping Ukraine by putting our own on the line ....why would it be different for other nations to back us, to put their own on the line if we get into it with Russia on our north?

[Cranky]

Mar 15, 2022 15:53:16 GMT -5 jkr said:

Found this article about the balancing act Belarus is playing right now. Apparently their army is small and inexperienced. The number in the article seemed small to me for a country of almost 10 million but I dontbknow what the norm is for other countries.

www.politico.eu/article/belarus-ukraine-war-russia-alexander-lukashenko-dodges-weaves/

The Belorus military is not much of a threat. It's armour is from the 70's and it's largish airforce is more airfarce then a serious threat. 39 Mig 29's which are ok but wont last long, 68 SU-25's which will be AA fodder in quick order and that is about it. We could take them on! Which makes me cry......

Other then Poland through shear size, the former Soviet countries are not really up to 21st century warfare. They still have most of their Soviet era weapons which was more about quantity then quality. While Russia has moved on to better equipment, these countries have not and likely won't because it's expensive. Of all the countries that would of built fairly large and strong military it would of been Ukraine with an abundance of untapped natural resources.

One of the things that I read a while back was that NATO does not fully trust some of the smaller ex-soviet era countries and the last thing we need is one of them to switch back to Russian influence and we land up fighting against our own equipment. You can see some of this with US and Greece. From Greek sources, it appears that the Americans don't want to stage their air power inside places like Romania and Bulgaria, which in theory can be easily "explained" because of the need for extensive infrastructure those fighters need. Of course, the infrastructure and operational systems would then be open to the host country....and there is concern about lingering love for Russia and Putin. On the other hand, the US has established air bases in a matter of weeks, but that's a lot of cost and manpower that is only justified in a shooting war. So there is the practical side and the underlaying concern.

In a previous post I brought up Greek concern of getting "set-up" by Americans and NATO to supplying air cover to neighboring countries in a shooting war and subsequent very high losses. Greece does not have the economic resources to replace their very expensive air-force. Last night I saw a few Greek articles that also brought this up so it's not just my "suspicion". It's not the first time that lesser nations are/were set-up to provide the sacrificial body bags. In fact, see Putin and Belarus.

I'm really, really suspicious of the US administrations on either side going all in with NATO unless there was actually missiles flying. Americans are war weary and with good cause, but NATO underlaying foundations is full out self sacrifice for any member. That has never been tested and I have my suspicions about it. Will Canada send 100,000 man and everything we have to defend Romania? Bulgaria? Are we ready to sacrifice Toronto for Sofia or Bucharest?

I hope we never have to find out because I'm afraid Article 5 has lot's of hot air support.......

[Cranky]

Green lollipops, yellow lollipops, purple lollipops. Take one and shut up about buying planes and defending the north...

My spies told me Putin read this article and had vodka shoot out his nose from laughter. Which of course landed on his giant map of FURTHER militarizing the North. That wet nose tragedy will set back his plans for at least 100 years.

Canada looks to reinforce Arctic sovereignty through diplomacy, military, says minister

National Defence Minister Anita Anand is planning a trip to the Arctic, as she gathers her allied counterparts in Arctic countries for a joint discussion on the security of the region in light of Russian aggression in Ukraine.

Anand told CBC News she spoke to all three territorial premiers on Friday about her intention to visit. The minister said she is also having ongoing discussions with the defence ministers of Sweden, Finland, Norway and Denmark.

MORE...

www.rcinet.ca/eye-on-the-arctic/2022/03/15/canada-looks-to-reinforce-arctic-sovereignty-through-diplomacy-military-says-minister/

NORAD....it's a soggy smoke signal system against hypersonic missiles. And it mostly serves the US as an early warning to launch their missiles. It does nothing to defend our North.

[Cranky]

Very interesting comment on the Russian army. Dis touched on some of the subjects discussed in this article a few pages back. The author is an ex-admiral and obviously beyond question as far as first hand knowledge (of course, it makes me look smarter then I am because my comments coincide with his. )

For the Western masses, I'm sure a few weeks ago any interest in military matters..... was played on a cell phone.

My comments in red.

Putin Is Finding War Is Hell, and Expensive

One question I get repeatedly these days: What is wrong with the Russian military? Many in the West had a mistaken belief that the Russian war machine was a rough match for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and they are surprised at how much trouble the massive force is having subduing a much smaller and less-equipped neighbor, Ukraine. (which is mostly civilian militia now)

During my time as NATO’s military commander, I spent time with the Russian military and the chief of its general staff at the time, General Nikolai Makarov. A congenial figure, Makarov told me about Russian efforts to modernize his forces, starting with professionalizing them and weaning the nation from a brutal conscript system. There were plans to improve offensive cyber capabilities, precision-guided weaponry and unmanned vehicles. (drones, drones, drones and drones)

He seemed confident of progress, but from all I have seen in Ukraine, the decade-long effort has not been successful, and draftees abound. There is little evidence of the hardware improvements, either. The Russians present not as a sophisticated 21st-century army, but rather a blunt force in the style of World War II’s militaries
(Iraqi army with better equipment)

Unlike in Syria, where Russian forces have been effective but are not fighting pitched battles against a serious standing military, today’s battles in Ukraine are showing the fissures in the Russian approach to training, equipping and organizing. Three key problems are worth highlighting, and none can be solved immediately, meaning they will continue to hobble operations in Ukraine.

More...

www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/ukraine-invasion-russia-s-military-is-adapting-after-early-failures

I don't want to print more of the article because of fair use rules, but one of the comments was that it's costing Russia a billion dollars a day. That was my estimate too and that's why I'm extra pissed off because that's the same amount of oil/gas Europe buys every day from Russia. Basically financing Puta's war on Ukraine.

[Willie Dog]

This video reminds me of what the mujahedeen did to the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 80s...

youtu.be/dcYSdzUs3cQ

[Cranky]

Ooops...almost forgot that there is still a war going on.....but we will soon move on. Please don't be harsh, I'm a westerner secure in Canada...

Here is ANOTHER article from a left wing source that is right on....and that is shock and awe!

This Is How World War III Begins


The usual date given for the start of World War II is Sept. 1, 1939, when Hitler invaded Poland after the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. But that was just one in a series of events that at the time could have seemed disconnected.

Among them: Japan’s invasion of Manchuria in 1931. Italy’s invasion of Abyssinia in 1935. The remilitarization of the Rhineland in 1936 and the Spanish Civil War, which started the same year. Anschluss with Austria and the Sudeten crisis of 1938. The Soviet invasion of Poland weeks after the German one and Germany’s western invasions the following year. Operation Barbarossa and Pearl Harbor in 1941. (note my multiple references to 1938)

The point is, World War II didn’t so much begin as it gathered, like water rising until it breaches a dam. We, too, have been living through years of rising waters, though it took Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for much of the world to notice.

Before the invasion, we had the Russian invasions of Georgia, Crimea and eastern Ukraine; the Russian carpet bombing of Aleppo; the use of exotic radioactive and chemical agents against Russian dissidents on British soil; Russian interference in U.S. elections and massive hacks of our computer networks; the murder of Boris Nemtsov and the blatant poisoning and imprisonment of Alexei Navalny. (yah but he had gas and oil. By far the most guilty was Germany and their policy of appeasing a murderer to fill their gas tanks)

Were any of these sovereignty violations, legal violations, treaty violations, war crimes and crimes against humanity met with a strong, united, punitive response that could have averted the next round of outrages? Did Western responses to other violations of global norms — Syria’s use of chemical weapons against civilians, Beijing’s eradication of Hong Kong’s autonomy, Iran’s war by proxy against its neighbors — give Vladimir Putin pause? (easy to have a long term plan when you don't have anyone who can boot you ourt of office)

In short, did Putin have any reason to think, before Feb. 24, that he wouldn’t be able to get away with his invasion?

He didn’t. Contrary to the claim that Putin’s behavior is a result of Western provocation — like refusing to absolutely rule out eventual NATO membership for Ukraine — the West has mainly spent 22 years placating Putin through a long cycle of resets and wrist slaps. The devastation of Ukraine is the fruit of this appeasement.(oh stop it comrade. US is still buying commodities from Russia so appeasement is relative term and depends on ones pocket.)

The Biden administration now faces the question of whether it wants to bring this cycle to an end. The answer isn’t clear. Sanctions have hurt the Russian economy, arms shipments to Ukraine have helped to slow the Russian advance, and Russia’s brutality has unified NATO. This is to the president’s credit.(that's actually the NATO/EU stand and nothing to do with Bidens "plan". Giving him credit means giving him credit for being Captain Obvious)

But the administration continues to operate under a series of potentially catastrophic illusions. (if anything, it's signaling that the US is too scared to do anything but talk and deflect into lollipop actions)

Sanctions may devastate Russia in the long term. But the immediate struggle in Ukraine is short term. Insofar as one of the main effects of sanctions has been to send tens of thousands of middle-class Russians into exile, they actually help Putin by weakening a potent base of political opposition. As for the oligarchs, they might have lost their yachts, but they’re not about to pick up their guns. (losing a yacht to an oligarch is the same as losing a shoe to us)

Arming Ukraine with Javelin and Stinger missiles has wounded and embarrassed the Russian military. Providing Kyiv with MIG-29 fighter jets and other potentially game-changing weapon systems could help turn the tide. Refusing to do so may only prolong Ukraine’s agony. (game changer would be Partriot missiles clearing the skies. Planes not so much.)

Frequent suggestions that Putin has already lost the war or that he can’t possibly win when Ukrainians are united in their hatred for him or that he’s looking for an offramp — and that we should be thinking up ingenious ways to provide him with one — may turn out to be right. But they are grossly premature. This war is only in its third week; it took the Nazis longer to conquer Poland. The ability to subdue a restive population is chiefly a function of the pain an occupier is willing to inflict. For a primer on that, look at what Putin did to Grozny in his first year in office. (that word "unfortunate" hides the level of blood it's written in )

Refusing to impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine may be justified because it exceeds the risks NATO countries are prepared to tolerate. But the idea that doing so could start World War III ignores history and telegraphs weakness. Americans squared off with Soviet pilots operating under Chinese or North Korean cover in the Korean War without blowing up the world. And our vocal aversion to confrontation is an invitation, not a deterrent, to Russian escalation.(yeesh, hard to argue IF one takes current events as a certain WW3 start. Might as well go for it since he's bogged down in Ukraine and not bombing other European cities. There is NO scenario where we don't kill Russians in a no fly zone. NONE. ZERO. So either Putin backs down, gets demolished or we glow in the dark.)

There is now a serious risk that these illusions could collapse very suddenly. There’s little evidence so far that Putin is eager to cut his losses; on the contrary, to do so now — after incurring the economic price of sanctions but without achieving a clear victory — would jeopardize his grip on power.(there is no reason why Puta should give in since the sanctions are nowhere near the level of hurt that we are sold on and a loss will encourage some local rope and lamp post nightmare's for him)

Bottom line: Expect him to double down. If he uses chemical weapons, as Bashar al-Assad did, or deploys a battlefield nuclear weapon, in keeping with longstanding Russian military doctrine, does he lose more than he gains? The question answers itself. He wins swiftly. He terrifies the West. He consolidates power. He suffers consequences only marginally graver than the ones already inflicted. And his fellow travelers in Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang take note. (That's a road so far that if we do NOT respond, it will mean the equivalent of Hitler winning WW2. One way or another, we are f***** if we allow him to live after that kind of event. PERIOD.)

How does the next world war begin? The same way the last one did. (after this article, can I start to hate the NYT again? Asking for a friend.)


www.nytimes.com/2022/03/15/opinion/russia-ukraine-world-war-iii.html

[jkr]

More grim reading. That last paragraph is very pessimistic. Stephens seems to be saying that Putin has won. The threat of WMD is paralyzing NATO.

He has no regard for body counts on either side. He's proven it time and again. I watched a Frontline piece last night and they discussed something I had forgotten about - when Chechen rebels took hostages in a school in Beslan in 2007. Putin's solution was to storm the school, including the use of armor. Over 300 were killed, not including the hostage takers. Add that to Grozny, Aleppo etc. So I take his threats seriously because as long as he is safe, he doesn't care about anything else.

I've wondered if today's measures were taken in 2014 after Crimea would we be here now?. The Frontline people talked to John Brennan, former CIA chief. He wanted an armed response in order to give Russia pause. Obama decided on sanctions instead.

Every time Putin pushes no one pushes back

[Disgruntled70sHab]

Mar 16, 2022 0:08:40 GMT -5 Cranky said:

Green lollipops, yellow lollipops, purple lollipops. Take one and shut up about buying planes and defending the north...

My spies told me Putin read this article and had vodka shoot out his nose from laughter. Which of course landed on his giant map of FURTHER militarizing the North. That wet nose tragedy will set back his plans for at least 100 years.

Canada looks to reinforce Arctic sovereignty through diplomacy, military, says minister

National Defence Minister Anita Anand is planning a trip to the Arctic, as she gathers her allied counterparts in Arctic countries for a joint discussion on the security of the region in light of Russian aggression in Ukraine.

Anand told CBC News she spoke to all three territorial premiers on Friday about her intention to visit. The minister said she is also having ongoing discussions with the defence ministers of Sweden, Finland, Norway and Denmark.

MORE...

www.rcinet.ca/eye-on-the-arctic/2022/03/15/canada-looks-to-reinforce-arctic-sovereignty-through-diplomacy-military-says-minister/

NORAD....it's a soggy smoke signal system against hypersonic missiles. And it mostly serves the US as an early warning to launch their missiles. It does nothing to defend our North.

We were discussing the Arctic situation about a week ago ... see "Russia is back in Arctic Bases" ... I remember Canada declining to establish an Arctic ballistic missile defence system a few years back ... as of Nov 30, 2021, Trudeau said that Canada would not change its position "anytime soon" ... it's too bad that previous Canadian governments, including Trudeau's administration, have taken their NORAD responsibilities for granted ... as far as the icebreakers are concerned, it was Harper who initiated National Shipbuilding Procurement Strategy (NSPS) (now called National Shipbuilding Strategy) and the building of the Nanisivik Naval Station on Baffin Island, which will finally be ready to go sometime in 2022 ... the one icebreaker, CCGS John G. Diefenbaker, that was supposed to be ready to sail in 2017, won't be ready until later this year, but the Harry DeWolf-class offshore patrol vessel is an interesting option ... the design is taken from the Norwegian NoCGV Svalbard ... that's only Nanisivik Naval Station, we haven't talked about CFS Alert, yet ...

Cheers.

[Cranky]

Mar 16, 2022 18:10:08 GMT -5 jkr said:

More grim reading. That last paragraph is very pessimistic. Stephens seems to be saying that Putin has won. The threat of WMD is paralyzing NATO.

He has no regard for body counts on either side. He's proven it time and again. I watched a Frontline piece last night and they discussed something I had forgotten about - when Chechen rebels took hostages in a school in Beslan in 2007. Putin's solution was to storm the school, including the use of armor. Over 300 were killed, not including the hostage takers. Add that to Grozny, Aleppo etc. So I take his threats seriously because as long as he is safe, he doesn't care about anything else.

I've wondered if today's measures were taken in 2014 after Crimea would we be here now?. The Frontline people talked to John Brennan, former CIA chief. He wanted an armed response in order to give Russia pause. Obama decided on sanctions instead.

Every time Putin pushes no one pushes back.

You saw that on Frontline? Because watched that too.

I'm going to go back into my slum ridden childhood and relate the Universal Laws of Bullies. They will go as far as they can until the day they meet a brick in the head.

Neither you or me or anyone in here wants to go to war. But, at some point, the war comes to you and you have to decide that there is no exit other then to fight. Whatever it takes, that brick has to be lifted and used. NOT threatened, not yelled about, but used.

At this point, I'm still on the side of let's arm the Ukrainians to the teeth BUT, we MUST NOT let Putin get away with gassing or nukes otherwise it will get worse and it will end worse. It will spread from Ukraine into Europe and downtown Toronto faster then we can imagine. There isn't one shred of doubt that it will happen.

Right now, right this minute, we have the absolute worse of all worlds with the US run by a barely cognitive and seriously questionable president. If the committee of decisions makers behind him think that the US should ride this out and let the Europeans suffer, that is an epic mistake for humanity. This is NOT WW2 where we can let the Europeans fight another battle and exhaust themselves while America power finally matured and dominated the world. At this point, it will be CHINA rising and dominating the world and that is no good for anyone but China. I am pretty certain that the current bunch in the WH do not have a "big picture" or an understanding of power. Their actions and words certainly don't show any. Otherwise we would not have Biden whispering "this will start wW3" like some didactic half wit uncle talking to children. To me, that was sooo unnerving, sooo weak that it can't possibly be seen anything less by Putin. Or more encouraging to Putin. The current WH can be described in one word...scared.

Look, my view of Biden was never past "I hope he doesn't break anything" for his tenure. His presidency much like Trumps was an anti-vote then a pro vote. People hated Clinton and Trump won. People hated Trump and Biden won. Two mistakes in a row are pretty bad, but right now, this can turn into an epic world changing tragedy.

Sorry that I may offend someone because it's a political comment....but it is political.

I'm still confident that we will not see a WW3. Confident, but that word is so far detached from the consequences that it might as well be "kind of hoping".

That's my opinion...and I hate it writing it.


(BTW...I know that I'm very triggered by what is happening, but sometimes I feel like I'm the only one concerned and writing about this. Maybe I'm misjudging the lack of participation, but this is on a level that makes hockey utterly irrelevant. There are lives and a country being destroyed and it's just one step away from coming to our house. ONE step.)

[Cranky]

Mar 16, 2022 18:49:02 GMT -5 Disgruntled70sHab said:

Mar 16, 2022 0:08:40 GMT -5 Cranky said:

Green lollipops, yellow lollipops, purple lollipops. Take one and shut up about buying planes and defending the north...

My spies told me Putin read this article and had vodka shoot out his nose from laughter. Which of course landed on his giant map of FURTHER militarizing the North. That wet nose tragedy will set back his plans for at least 100 years.

NORAD....it's a soggy smoke signal system against hypersonic missiles. And it mostly serves the US as an early warning to launch their missiles. It does nothing to defend our North.

We were discussing the Arctic situation about a week ago ... see "Russia is back in Arctic Bases" ... I remember Canada declining to establish an Arctic ballistic missile defence system a few years back ... as of Nov 30, 2021, Trudeau said that Canada would not change its position "anytime soon" ... it's too bad that previous Canadian governments, including Trudeau's administration, have taken their NORAD responsibilities for granted ... as far as the icebreakers are concerned, it was Harper who initiated National Shipbuilding Procurement Strategy (NSPS) (now called National Shipbuilding Strategy) and the building of the Nanisivik Naval Station on Baffin Island, which will finally be ready to go sometime in 2022 ... the one icebreaker, CCGS John G. Diefenbaker, that was supposed to be ready to sail in 2017, won't be ready until later this year, but the Harry DeWolf-class offshore patrol vessel is an interesting option ... the design is taken from the Norwegian NoCGV Svalbard ... that's only Nanisivik Naval Station, we haven't talked about CFS Alert, yet ...

Cheers.

Dis, that "anytime soon" article is exactly my view on hypersonic missiles. The Russians are working on them for years and this bs about not carrying nuke is lollipop logic. They can and they will. They also render air craft carriers into the last century. That is also the reason that making grand expenditures on NORAD is almost last century. It will only serve as a trigger for retaliation rather then some kind of guide to ballistic missile defense against hypersonic missiles.

We have no choice whatsoever of either defending the north or surrendering it....with lots of angry tweets.

To defend it we either have a "no touch" policy of missile defense against aircraft (useless against hypersonic missiles), which then forces Russia to raise the stakes because they wont be able to fly around there OR a serious and credible air force that requires at the very minimum F-35 but preferably F-22s AND drone tech OR nukes.

Which "OR" are we going to take? Bet it's the angry tweets......

[jkr]

Mar 16, 2022 18:49:39 GMT -5 Cranky said:

Mar 16, 2022 18:10:08 GMT -5 jkr said:

More grim reading. That last paragraph is very pessimistic. Stephens seems to be saying that Putin has won. The threat of WMD is paralyzing NATO.

He has no regard for body counts on either side. He's proven it time and again. I watched a Frontline piece last night and they discussed something I had forgotten about - when Chechen rebels took hostages in a school in Beslan in 2007. Putin's solution was to storm the school, including the use of armor. Over 300 were killed, not including the hostage takers. Add that to Grozny, Aleppo etc. So I take his threats seriously because as long as he is safe, he doesn't care about anything else.

I've wondered if today's measures were taken in 2014 after Crimea would we be here now?. The Frontline people talked to John Brennan, former CIA chief. He wanted an armed response in order to give Russia pause. Obama decided on sanctions instead.

Every time Putin pushes no one pushes back.

You saw that on Frontline? Because watched that too.


(BTW...I know that I'm very triggered by what is happening, but sometimes I feel like I'm the only one concerned and writing about this. Maybe I'm misjudging the lack of participation, but this is on a level that makes hockey utterly irrelevant. There are lives and a country being destroyed and it's just one step away from coming to our house. ONE step.)

Re: Frontline. Are you asking about Beslan?

Believe me you aren't alone here. This thread is the first one I check when I come to Habsrus. And like you I can't contain my self while watching the news. It used to be Habs games got be riled. Now my wife is telling me to keep quiet during the news.

[Cranky]

Mar 16, 2022 19:31:52 GMT -5 jkr said:

Mar 16, 2022 18:49:39 GMT -5 Cranky said:

You saw that on Frontline? Because watched that too.


(BTW...I know that I'm very triggered by what is happening, but sometimes I feel like I'm the only one concerned and writing about this. Maybe I'm misjudging the lack of participation, but this is on a level that makes hockey utterly irrelevant. There are lives and a country being destroyed and it's just one step away from coming to our house. ONE step.)

Re: Frontline. Are you asking about Beslan?

Believe me you aren't alone here. This thread is the first one I check when I come to Habsrus. And like you I can't contain my self while watching the news. It used to be Habs games got be riled. Now my wife is telling me to keep quiet during the news.

You mentioned Frontline and I saw the same show last night.

I'm glad I'm not the only one triggered by Puta and his antics. It's hitting home harder because we are retired and no future to earn or pick up and start again. So the piece of human excrement has me worried not only for his atrocities, the intentional blood lust, but what his actions can do to us.

Every time I see his image...is it weird to want to pick up my favorite bat and practice on his head? It's not healthy...and I know it, but man-oh-man, it's hard to contain.

[Tankdriver]

I'd love to participate in this discussion but my current role doesn't allow me to talk about it. Let's just say last tueday night consisted of having a discussion with someone who wants to go and fight for the legionaires and this individual needed to understand all of the consequences of his actions.

But I am appreciative of this thread.

[Cranky]

Mar 16, 2022 23:09:13 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

I'd love to participate in this discussion but my current role doesn't allow me to talk about it. Let's just say last tueday night consisted of having a discussion with someone who wants to go and fight for the legionaires and this individual needed to understand all of the consequences of his actions.

But I am appreciative of this thread.

Sure...let the amateur couch generals spout while the pros snicker!

You realize that only mods can see IPs and good luck to anyone who thinks that we would give it to them...or they would last a second here if they ask for it. You've been around here long enough to know what we're like.

I see that some who went there to fight are coming back. My amateur opinion that this battleground is worse then Afganistan. No air or artillery support to help out. No quick exit from the battlefront in case of injury. No veteran support system if they get injured or maimed. It's no "adventure" unless that includes a high probability of dying. All respect in the world for them and they are heroes...but they should be absolutely cleared eyed where they are heading.

Just my two rubles....

[Cranky]

This is a bullcrap article and I'm trying to see the political angle. Did they put it out because some idiot CBC reporter thought he had a story or a political whisper to stop sending weapons? Those killing thingys that curdle their latte?

Of course there is some chance weapons land up in the wrong hands but what exactly does that mean? The Russians have plenty of supplies and it's not like they don't have SAMs for the barely existing Ukrainian air force or Ukraine have this mighty armour that Russia needs extra Javelins.

As for the capacity to "fully absorb them", I doubt anyone in the CBC or their paid experts has a damn clue how quickly munitions get used up. Ukraine probably has over a million man in their civilian militias, millions more that can be armed and if anything, they lack enough weapons to go around, not the CBC bullcrap of "fully absorb them".

I hate the CBC and they give me cause every time they open their slimey mouths...including what reeks of anti-war lollipop propaganda piece about "guns"...

STFU...

Experts warn that Canadian weapons shipped to Ukraine could end up in the wrong hands.

The risk of Canadian weapons shipments being lost, stolen or otherwise misused is growing as the war in Ukraine enters a chaotic and uncertain new phase.

And with shipments of Canadian weapons still due to arrive in Ukraine, some are warning that parts of those shipments could end up on the black market or be turned against the Ukrainian people by the Russian military or local paramilitary groups.

Don't waste your time on more...

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadian-weapons-ukraine-misuse-1.6386109

[Cranky]

Propaganda...everybody hears about it, fewer understand how it's applied.

Propaganda is most effective by reinforcing ones beliefs that are beneficial to the propagandist cause rather then be confrontational about it.

Take the CBC article. If I was working in the Russian ministry of propaganda, something that actually exists from Stalins time, I would first make a list of every fear and hope of various groups. For the left, it would be race, equality, guns, minority rights, and whatever turn the gears for the left. For the right, "freedom", big government, terrorist, religion, family, and again, whatever turns the gears for the right.

In this case the flood of weapons into Ukraine are piling up Russian body bags and downright hurting the invasion.

So I start to put out misinformation in the easily used/abused Farcebook/Tweety world about guns getting into terrorist hands for the right, or guns "spreading uncontrollably" to the gun fearing left. Both groups would not have a clue that it was Comrade Cranky using their fears to harm their cause. As far as they are concerned, terrorist are bad or guns are bad. Reinforcing that belief introduces doubt about supplying them. Both sides ask, are are we doing the right thing? And the tide starts to turn.

A week or two later....terrorist armed from the Ukraine conflict kill 20 in Some-where-we-like, or an arms cache was seized in Paris that originated in Ukraine. So what if in both cases they were planted or acted by my comrades in the KGB. Stupid Westerners would never find out but their nightmares just came through.

STOP THE GUNS...yell the pool deep thinkers of both sides.

Didn't fire a shot...but the western idiot class shot themselves in the foot.

And for all my efforts, my beloved Putin gives me a great house on the hills. And those 300 virgins? Turns out it was goats. Contract fine print matters....

Yes, it's that easy. Yes, it's happening. Yes, the CBC is completely oblivious.

[Cranky]

I was looking for something interesting to post about Ukraine...and found something sad to post about USA. For me, this is the most pathetic thing I have EVER read about Americans.

Several times in this thread I said that Americans must lead the charge because they have the proven command and control as well as the overwhelming firepower, but they simply don't have the appetite for war so I don't see them coming to the rescue. Same thing if we expect help for our North.

I know there is a huge problem down there and the school system is on overdrive spinning the evil American Empire meme from the vastly left education system, so I shouldn't be surprised...but I am.

Would Americans fight for their country like Ukrainians? A recent poll is discouraging.

A recent Quinnipiac University poll posed that same question to Americans: Would you stay and fight or leave the country? A bare majority, 55%, said they would stay and fight, while 38% said they would leave.

“When confronted with a terrible hypothetical that would put them in the shoes of the Ukrainians, Americans say they would stand and fight rather than seek safety in another country,” said Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy. That’s one way to spin it, I guess.

For me, the fact that just under half of my friends and neighbors would hypothetically abandon their homeland and all it stands for in the face of a foreign invader is less than encouraging. Many people don’t even seem to have hypothetical patriotism, let alone fortitude. (Can't even bother to lie for a survey and instead proudly proclaim f*** America. Just WOW)

Further disheartening is that the youngest Americans, those ages 18-34 and most physically capable, were even less likely to stay and fight. Only 45% said they would remain, while 48% would flee. Comparatively, two-thirds of the 50-to-64-year-old cohort said they would remain. (Mommy said that they are too special to die so they should go on a European vacation until grandpa and grandma sacrifice their lives for them. Send postcards)

That’s not wholly surprising given that so much of the recent discontentment with America is concentrated among the youth. Equally unsurprising is that political differences also play a role in willingness to defend our nation.

Republicans (68%-25%) and independents (57%-36%) said they would stay and fight, while Democrats said, 52%-40%, that they would leave the country. That seems consistent with our political divide. Many people on the left find America, because of its historical failures and present-day inadequacies, unworthy of our defense.(where exactly will 50,000,000 democrats think they are going to go? Or do they think it's just a free vacation until someone else dies for their country? If daddy, son and daughter won't fight for their country, certaimly not invited to my house.)

But there are elements of that thinking on the political right now, too.

For all the chest-thumping of the MAGA right, a surprising number of people believe that the United States — much like Ukraine — has brought destruction upon itself, and any attack would be wholly warranted if not deserved. (That 25% small minority won't fight because they believe they are sacrificing their lives to save the majority of un-patriotic democrats. Which is actually true but just as sad.)

I don’t disagree that we are a decadent society — one that has generally enjoyed so much freedom for so long that we have sometimes lost all perspective. To wit, I received a promotional email last week from the children’s clothier, explaining that, in an effort to defend the children of the world from ongoing “violence and discrimination,” it would donate equal amounts to a domestic LGTBQ nonprofit and an international aid organization. (corporate America on mostly phoney but cost free PR spin to show their super duper wokeness.)

As if transgender policies in Texas and Florida (even if one believe them to be misguided) are the moral equivalent of deadly rocket attacks on a children’s hospital in Ukraine. They are not.


Read more at:

www.miamiherald.com/opinion/op-ed/article259392144.html#storylink=cpy

Imagine if you are European, particularly a former Soviet satellite. How much confidence do you have that America has your back? I wouldn't sleep as well.

The real question from this article...what about Canadians? Is over 50% going to pack the iPad, grab their latte and leave?

[Cranky]

I was listening to our Minister of Defence, Anita Anand, eager to hear some insight about Ukraine and military matters. Obviously anyone in that position has vast experience and background in military or related industry.

Yes sir, such a position carries enormous responsibilty for our nations security so it wont just be just virtue signalling and political expediancy.

So i looked at her wiki page...

She's a lawyer. Her deep background is....corporate governance and regulation of capital markets.

Feel so much better....

[Cranky]

This is a really good development... but...these countries are giving up a very effective SAM system and asking the US to replace it with Patriot missile system. The Americans are saying, great, send it and we'll talk. Talk? Talk about what?

A whole lot of countries who are willing to help with systems critical to their own defense are getting a sense that under the guise of "expanding this war" are getting the run-around from the Biden administration for any support. Or Biden is terrified of Putin.

Slovakia will send Ukraine S-300 air defenses ‘immediately’ if NATO backfills its weapons
The Slovakian defense minister said his country could not give its S-300 missiles to Ukraine without creating a ‘security gap’ within NATO


www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/17/s-300-ukraine-slovakia/

Is Puta scared? Damn right he is and they are. I argued previously that forget the MIGs, make the sky lethal to everything that flies and turn it into a a bogged down, muddy death field for Russia. This is the way to do it.

Russia said on Friday (18 March) it will attack potential supply chains of S-300 air defence systems to Ukraine, following Slovakia’s statement that it is ready to send them to Ukraine if they are immediately replaced.

Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said that Moscow “will not allow” the transfer of S-300 air defence missile systems, following statements in Bratislava that the country would supply its own to Ukraine, as the country resists the attacks of the Russian aggressor for a fourth week.

He even said that any arms supply to Ukraine would be considered by Russia as a “legitimate target”.

www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/russia-says-will-attack-slovakias-s-300-missile-supplies-to-ukraine/

Soo...there are two explanations for the US reluctance to supply the Patriot missile..

1....they are playing a game of getting others to send their weapons while US skates around.

2....absolutely terrified of Puta.

Let's see what happens....