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Post by habsorbed on Apr 10, 2022 21:03:16 GMT -5
Step right up and spin the wheel! Ten games left in this historically awful season (thanks MB).
It's a crap shoot with so many teams eliminated playing their young players and giving them decent TOI. And you gotta believe these gms and coaches are doing what they can in a subtle way to lose.
I say we finish 3rd worst. Just don't see Yotes and Kracken having better records than us the rest of the way. Jesrey and Philly worry me as they are awful. But hoping their current lead is too much for us to overcome with 10 games left. We basically have to win 3 more games than them. That's unlikely given we're likely to go 500 the rest of the way. Can NJ and Flyers finish last 10 games with a .200 win percentage?
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Post by folatre on Apr 10, 2022 22:13:42 GMT -5
Jeje, futurology is fun. I will preface this by saying that I would be despondent if the top prize in this draft was generational talent like McDavid or Matthews because, frankly, Montreal is extremely unlikely to picking first (or even second).
Where will the Habs finish? Well, I see Arizona finishing last. Vejmelka is not holding down like the fort like he did for a good part of the season and after they traded Wedgewood to Dallas, they basically have no backup so every time Vejmelka gets a night off will essentially be an automatic loss.
The battle for 31st is Montreal and Seattle. Montreal is more dynamic offensively and seems to have guys wanting the two points on a regular basis whereas Seattle seems to play just like Hakstol's teams in Philadelphia played, like bored robots who are essentially devoid of fun. It is not impossible that the Kraken finishes ahead of the Habs (after all, they play New Jersey, Ottawa, and San Jose in their own building), but I just do not see it.
Because the Devils have games against Arizona, Seattle, Buffalo, Detroit x2, and Ottawa, I see Montreal staying below New Jersey.
Habsorbed, I think you nailed it.
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Post by seventeen on Apr 11, 2022 0:43:27 GMT -5
I'm going with 4th worst. But I think we'll win the lottery.  PS. I put no deduction or analysis into this at all, unlike folatre and habsorbed. I commend their efforts, but I've gone with the dart board for this poll. |
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Post by Willie Dog on Apr 11, 2022 7:48:43 GMT -5
I say 3rd as long as carey does not return he could mess things up
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 11, 2022 9:24:24 GMT -5
I say 3rd as long as carey does not return he could mess things up Regular season Carey? |
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Post by habsorbed on Apr 11, 2022 9:36:21 GMT -5
I say 3rd as long as carey does not return he could mess things up Regular season Carey? Problem is that the boys in front of Carey will be playing lights out for the guy for at least the first if not 2 games. Those are 2 or 4 points we do not want! |
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Post by Willie Dog on Apr 11, 2022 10:53:03 GMT -5
I say 3rd as long as carey does not return he could mess things up Regular season Carey? Playoff Carey is what worries me |
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Post by Andrew on Apr 11, 2022 11:36:26 GMT -5
Playoff Carey is what worries me If Carey's motivation is to be traded and have a fresh start elsewhere, then he'll no doubt want to showcase that he's still that player with whatever games he gets down the stretch. I can't imagine that he can just step in cold after so many months off, however, and perform at that level - so rust should negate any motivational bump. |
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Post by halihab on Apr 11, 2022 11:48:36 GMT -5
3rd worst for me. We should finish ahead of the Yotes and Kracken. We will end up picking second in the draft.
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Post by Skilly on Apr 11, 2022 14:44:43 GMT -5
Looking at the schedules ... the Yotes will win two games, the Krackheads will win three games, the Habs will win two of there remaining games.
Under that scenario, the Habs finish second last. The Yotes squeak out one more win, the Habs are last.
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Post by Scotty D on Apr 11, 2022 16:31:11 GMT -5
the devils play the coyotes Kraken and Sens so 3 point games would be awesome.
The kraken also play the sens come on 3 pointer.
The flyers have the sens on the last game for both teams but by then i believe the outcome will only determine which one of those 2 pick before the other lol probably a 3 pointer both teams might be trying to lose haha
We end up with must lose nights against the flyers and sens
currently we have to make up 5 points in 10 games on the devils just to be 4th and i can't see the devils losing to both the kraken and the yotes while not picking up at least 2 more wins in the last 10 which would mean we would need to go 6 or 7 w's in the last ten just to catch em. we need 4 wins to pass the flyers and sens if they goose egg the rest of the way so we are not catching them
all that said methinks it ends
Arizona
Seattle
HABS
i am going with third with the hope it's 1 anyway or the lottery pans out.
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Post by folatre on Apr 11, 2022 22:50:11 GMT -5
For sure, it would be great to see New Jersey help the cause of Arizona and Seattle this week while grabbing a loser point for themselves in those respective games.
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Post by habsorbed on Apr 12, 2022 0:30:14 GMT -5
9 games to go. We should be fine if we only win 4 of them - very doable.
Yotes have a much harder schedule than ours so don't see catching them.
What gives me some hope for the Krak getting ahead of us is their last 3 games (Nucks, Kings, Sharks) may all be teams out of the playoffs at that point and hopefully burnt out from their failed chase - easy pickings for the Krak.
Meanwhile we play Boston, Rags and Fla. Hopefully all of them, strong teams, need wins to improve their playoff standing, and in FLA's case chasing the President's Trophy.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 12, 2022 3:43:39 GMT -5
With the loss against the Jets, the Habs now cannot catch 22 teams.
As for the final standings, I see the boys in third from the bottom. And I think it will come from them winning some stupid game they should not win, and we will all collectively wonder “why?”. 😉
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 15, 2022 4:39:19 GMT -5
24 teams now that the Habs cannot catch.
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Post by Tankdriver on Apr 17, 2022 14:44:05 GMT -5
Only two games that can be iffy are the sens and flyers games. After seeing the flames destroy the yotes, last place is not going to happen.
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Post by Scotty D on Apr 18, 2022 11:21:05 GMT -5
A kracken overtime win versus Ottawa tonight will make us passing the Kracken next to zero as i can't see us making up that 5 point spread with just 6 remaining games come on OT !!!
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 21, 2022 5:58:39 GMT -5
28 teams now the Habs cannot catch. Three to go lol.
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Post by Skilly on Apr 21, 2022 19:46:55 GMT -5
We are one Yotes OT loss from last place
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Post by drkcloud on Apr 21, 2022 23:32:06 GMT -5
So we are in 31st place, which has a 13 percent chance of winning the lottery, or an 87 percent chance of NOT winning the lottery.
We're all hoping to finish 32nd, with only an 18 percent chance of winning the lottery or an 82 percent chance of NOT winning.
Still going to be long odds to get that first overall and the hockey gods left Montreal a long time ago.
I see us finishing 31st overall and getting the 4th overall pick. Just cuz
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Post by frozone on Apr 22, 2022 7:16:01 GMT -5
So we are in 31st place, which has a 13 percent chance of winning the lottery, or an 87 percent chance of NOT winning the lottery. We're all hoping to finish 32nd, with only an 18 percent chance of winning the lottery or an 82 percent chance of NOT winning. Still going to be long odds to get that first overall and the hockey gods left Montreal a long time ago. I see us finishing 31st overall and getting the 4th overall pick. Just cuz Yup. That's the main reason why I dislike tanking. All that pain for just slightly better odds. I don't like plans that rely on luck. "Just finish last and then anything can happen"...  |
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Post by Tankdriver on Apr 22, 2022 8:13:30 GMT -5
Normally I agree Fro, but I'd rather have an 18% chance than say a 3% chance and finish 19th...or whatever the percentage is for that place.
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Post by Skilly on Apr 23, 2022 23:34:04 GMT -5
The Habs are now 32nd in the league ....
The Yotes scored 3 goals in the third to go to OT against the Blues
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 24, 2022 0:34:11 GMT -5
The Habs are now 32nd in the league .... The Yotes scored 3 goals in the third to go to OT against the Blues Did not see that one coming. |
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Post by habsorbed on Apr 24, 2022 2:33:24 GMT -5
LAST OVERALL!!! What are the Yotes and management thinking? Now hopefully we don't get some ridiculous performance by someone so we pick up a point. I'd definitely have Clague, and Perreault dress the remaining 3 games. And I'd rest Suze, Cole, and Romy - they need to rest for next season  Yotes remaining schedule may be slightly easier than ours: Minnesota, Stars, Preds. We got Bruins, Rags and Fla. All the opponents currently need to win their games. But that may change. My biggest concern is Fla will have locked up the Presidents Trophy before they play our last game so will rest players for the playoffs - and the game is in MTL to close the season. We need Avs to keep winning and put pressure on Fla. Similarly, Preds may have secured a playoff spot before last game against Yotes. Bottom line: we are in control of our own destiny. And I mean real control: not win and you're in which can be challenging, but lose and you reach your objective which should be easy. JUST LOSE BABY!!! |
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Post by habsorbed on Apr 24, 2022 12:25:20 GMT -5
If my understanding of the lottery rules is correct, as well as my math, if we finish last overall we have a 25.5% of getting the first pick.
I get that by adding the chance of Habs winning the lottery by our 'ball' being selected is 18.5%, and teams 12 thru 16 have a combined percentage of having the winning ball totalling 7% but they cannot improve by more than 10 spots. So if teams 12 thru 16 win the lottery we maintain our first overall spot.
So 18.5% plus 7% gives us a 25.5% of getting first overall if we can finish dead last. Not bad odds!
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Post by seventeen on Apr 24, 2022 19:52:41 GMT -5
I always thought the powers that be (Bettman/Campbell) took those 12-16 teams in consideration when putting the balls into the bingo machine, but knowing how they deal with everything else, I suspect you are right!
Ok naysayers...prove habsorbed wrong or forever hold your peace. Hmmm, hearing that phrase, I wonder just how the guys that came up with that wedding ceremony wording spelled 'peace"?
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Post by Skilly on Apr 25, 2022 7:16:35 GMT -5
I always thought the powers that be (Bettman/Campbell) took those 12-16 teams in consideration when putting the balls into the bingo machine, but knowing how they deal with everything else, I suspect you are right! Ok naysayers...prove habsorbed wrong or forever hold your peace. Hmmm, hearing that phrase, I wonder just how the guys that came up with that wedding ceremony wording spelled 'peace"? Buffalo can only select first overall once more in the next four years. In the attached link, it shows the bingo ball machine. Now I know why the last place team doesn't select first so often. Really wish they did this bingo ball thing live ... but in the picture there is only 12 balls (?) in the machine (so it's during the actual draw). So that means the balls must be weighted (to account for the percentages)? Which is a recipe for disaster if any are marred in any way |
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Post by Tankdriver on Apr 25, 2022 7:47:42 GMT -5
Down to 2 games and then we still have to win the lottery. But having the 1st overall at the bell center would be pretty sweet.
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Post by habsorbed on Apr 25, 2022 10:03:43 GMT -5
I really think last overall is going to come down to our last game against Fla. Panthers will have clinched Presidents Trophy so nothing to play for and will not dress key players nor care about outcome. Meanwhile as it will be our last game and at home, we will play with some intensity to try and forget a crap season.
Really gotta hope Yotes get a win somewhere in their last 3. Perhaps their last game against Preds will mean nothing to Preds. But it looks like Preds will at the least be in a fight with Dallas as to who gets 7th seed, and maybe still fighting with Vegas for their playoff lives.
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