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Post by Willie Dog on Apr 5, 2023 15:47:43 GMT -5
I tend to agree with Cranky. If they like PLD, get him sooner rather than later because once he goes UFA all bets are off. I wouldn't assume he'll just be there for the taking. The starting point for a quasi-rental type player would be a "player, a pick, and a prospect", but for PLD given his age and RFA status it would have to be a legit offer. Would you trade Kaiden Guhle, Sean Farrell, and a 1st for PLD? Nope. I wouldn't even trade two of those pieces. Basically, we're assuming he wants to be a Hab, and we're trading to get him signed to a 2023 type contract rather than the 2024 numbers which will be higher. His value isn't more than that to us, if he wants to be here. If he doesn't want to be here, I'd let someone else overpay Winnipeg to get him. My best offer would be a B prospect (Mesar and Mailloux come to mind) along with one of Dvorak and Anderson. Maybe a 2nd rounder. But no 1st rounders or prospects trending really well are going to be on the table. How is Mailloux not trending well, he's the highest scoring d man in the OHL? He has good vision, skates well, great shot and he's 6'3" over 210lbs, has a nasty side and is a RHD. Is a potential 1st pairing RHD worth more than a 60 point winger who has played with the best players on every team he's been on and never gone over 60 points. theathletic.com/4379228/2023/04/04/canadiens-prospect-logan-mailloux-film-breakdown/ |
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Post by folatre on Apr 5, 2023 16:10:02 GMT -5
It would be ideal to get the big centre for 'free.' But the logic Gorton saw in trading for Trouba could apply to this case as well.
Gorton may believe it is easier negotiate with RFA Dubois in the summer of 2023 than UFA Dubois the following summer. And the corollary to that point is Montreal keeps other interested teams away.
Also, another way to look at it is that every player has a limited number of prime years in his career. Having Dubois as a Hab in 2023-24 means extracting value from one additional prime year.
Cheveldayoff is in a tough spot. But even so, there will be plenty of suitors and he will take the best offer.
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Post by jkr on Apr 5, 2023 17:39:19 GMT -5
Nope. I wouldn't even trade two of those pieces. Basically, we're assuming he wants to be a Hab, and we're trading to get him signed to a 2023 type contract rather than the 2024 numbers which will be higher. His value isn't more than that to us, if he wants to be here. If he doesn't want to be here, I'd let someone else overpay Winnipeg to get him. My best offer would be a B prospect (Mesar and Mailloux come to mind) along with one of Dvorak and Anderson. Maybe a 2nd rounder. But no 1st rounders or prospects trending really well are going to be on the table. How is Mailloux not trending well, he's the highest scoring d man in the OHL? He has good vision, skates well, great shot and he's 6'3" over 210lbs, has a nasty side and is a RHD. Is a potential 1st pairing RHD worth more than a 60 point winger who has played with the best players on every team he's been on and never gone over 60 points. theathletic.com/4379228/2023/04/04/canadiens-prospect-logan-mailloux-film-breakdown/Unfortunately I could not read much of the article without joining up. I did find this summary on EOTP that discusses 3 prospects including Mailloux. It states that what he needs to work on the most are defending and developing his hockey sense. It also discusses Mesar and Hutson at length. www.habseyesontheprize.com/catching-the-torch/2023/3/6/23625573/catching-the-torch-montreal-canadiens-prospect-analysis-lane-hutson-shatter-records-mailloux-mesar |
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Post by Willie Dog on Apr 5, 2023 18:08:32 GMT -5
It's weird, if an atheticle article shows up on the google home page I can read all of it, if I click on a link I hit the paywall. Below is a blurb from the end |
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Post by jkr on Apr 5, 2023 18:40:35 GMT -5
Thanks for that Willie.
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Post by PTH on Apr 5, 2023 22:29:21 GMT -5
Unfortunately I could not read much of the article without joining up. DM me for a workaround, if you want. |
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Post by Boston_Habs on Apr 6, 2023 8:46:12 GMT -5
It would be ideal to get the big centre for 'free.' But the logic Gorton saw in trading for Trouba could apply to this case as well. Gorton may believe it is easier negotiate with RFA Dubois in the summer of 2023 than UFA Dubois the following summer. I believe that IF the Habs want PLD then they shouldn't wait until he goes UFA. Too risky. I mentioned a while back that the Devils thought they were in a perfect position to sign Johnny Gaudreau, a local kid but albeit more of a Flyers fan growing up. He would have been a perfect fit for a team on the rise.... nope. He took every last penny to sign with the worst team in the league in Columbus. I think the lesson is if you want the player, go get the player. Don't just assume he'll be there "for free" at UFA time. The Habs have lots of prospects, picks, and only a few untouchable players. This all assumes he's the right guy, and I agree there seem to be some "character" issues with PLD. But you can dig into that behind the scenes. HuGo have done a good job and you can see they are going about this the right way, but you know that contending is not simply going to be a function of drafting and developing around what we already have. There is going to be a franchise-altering trade and/or signing in the next couple of years that will either put us back in contention OR be a move we'll regret for years. Maybe it's not PLD but at some point there will be a big decision to make that entails risk. This part now is easy... it's going to get harder. |
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Post by CentreHice on Apr 6, 2023 15:22:51 GMT -5
HuGo have done a good job and you can see they are going about this the right way, but you know that contending is not simply going to be a function of drafting and developing around what we already have. There is going to be a franchise-altering trade and/or signing in the next couple of years that will either put us back in contention OR be a move we'll regret for years. Maybe it's not PLD but at some point there will be a big decision to make that entails risk. This part now is easy... it's going to get harder. Very plausible and something to watch for. To place us on the contention track, it would have to include a legit #1 goaltender...unless there's a no-miss prospect I'm unaware of. Gotta have confidence in the net. Softies are killers in this league--especially in the playoffs. |
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Post by seventeen on Apr 6, 2023 15:47:33 GMT -5
I tend to agree with Cranky. If they like PLD, get him sooner rather than later because once he goes UFA all bets are off. I wouldn't assume he'll just be there for the taking. The starting point for a quasi-rental type player would be a "player, a pick, and a prospect", but for PLD given his age and RFA status it would have to be a legit offer. Would you trade Kaiden Guhle, Sean Farrell, and a 1st for PLD? No. I wouldn't even give up Guhle for him even up. Dmen are far too valuable and Guhle may be the guy who becomes a #1. So, No. The counter argument to waiting and "all bets are off", is one I made before. It now tests whether he truly wants to be a Hab or not. All along, I still have this question mark about his commmitment level. He's been unhappy with two teams now and maybe there's a good reason for it. But when he says he wants to be a Hab, I say, prove it. I don't m ind getting him early, but I'm thinking Florida's pick and a prospect like Riley Kidney. Maybe add a second rounder, but no more than that. I don't want to give up Farrell, or Josh Roy (who I think is just a winner...he does things that allow his team to win, like Lehky). Heck I wouldn't be averse to keeping Kidney and replacing him with Mailloux, or replacing the second rounder with Mailloux. Clearly, I'm not a Mailloux fan, but that's just me. PLD would add a lot to the Habs, if his head is in the right place. You may not even have to play him at centre, since he has to play top 6, but what an easy replacement if Suzuki or Dach get hurt. |
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Post by seventeen on Apr 6, 2023 15:59:52 GMT -5
Nope. I wouldn't even trade two of those pieces. Basically, we're assuming he wants to be a Hab, and we're trading to get him signed to a 2023 type contract rather than the 2024 numbers which will be higher. His value isn't more than that to us, if he wants to be here. If he doesn't want to be here, I'd let someone else overpay Winnipeg to get him. My best offer would be a B prospect (Mesar and Mailloux come to mind) along with one of Dvorak and Anderson. Maybe a 2nd rounder. But no 1st rounders or prospects trending really well are going to be on the table. How is Mailloux not trending well, he's the highest scoring d man in the OHL? He has good vision, skates well, great shot and he's 6'3" over 210lbs, has a nasty side and is a RHD. Is a potential 1st pairing RHD worth more than a 60 point winger who has played with the best players on every team he's been on and never gone over 60 points. theathletic.com/4379228/2023/04/04/canadiens-prospect-logan-mailloux-film-breakdown/The question marks with Mailloux revolve around his decision making, so I'm not sure one can say he has good vision. If he did, he wouldn't be making poor decisions. He's a good dman in the offensive zone, but questionable elsewhere. |
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Post by seventeen on Apr 6, 2023 16:05:12 GMT -5
I think the lesson is if you want the player, go get the player. Don't just assume he'll be there "for free" at UFA time. The Habs have lots of prospects, picks, and only a few untouchable players. This all assumes he's the right guy, and I agree there seem to be some "character" issues with PLD. But you can dig into that behind the scenes. HuGo have done a good job and you can see they are going about this the right way, but you know that contending is not simply going to be a function of drafting and developing around what we already have. There is going to be a franchise-altering trade and/or signing in the next couple of years that will either put us back in contention OR be a move we'll regret for years. Maybe it's not PLD but at some point there will be a big decision to make that entails risk. This part now is easy... it's going to get harder. Gaudreau never said he wanted to be a Devil, and that whole decision was more based on family matters than hockey matters and that's usually going to win out. It still boils down to "how serious is he about being a Hab?". Yeah, I wouldn't mind having him next year rather than the following year, but not at a large cost. We need that capital for other things perhaps (a potential #1 RHD). We have our top 2 centres already, so it's not like it'sa desperate need. It would be great to have PLD, but not at ANY cost. As an aside, I think Hughes has answered that question about risky decisions. Trading Romanov for a #13 pick and flipping it for a guy who was failing in Chicago, was a big risk and it's turning out spectacularly well. |
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Post by Boston_Habs on Apr 6, 2023 16:08:52 GMT -5
Fair enough. I suppose if PLD is saying he wants to play in MTL then he should back that up. But he's still an RFA after this season, right? So it would need to be a trade no matter what or an offer sheet, which would be a 1st, and 2nd, and a 3rd if the AAV is less than $10m? I suppose I'd rather give that up.
So maybe that's the leverage, but I wouldn't take PLD's comments about playing in MTL too seriously. He'll take the best deal he can get which he should.
Maybe I'm off but if you believe PLD is a top 6 forward then I don't see how you get a guy like that at 25 years old for a mid 1st round pick and Riley Kidney, who I'm not sure even ranks in the top 10 Habs prospects. Winnipeg could just deal him to another team for a better package and let them take the risk of signing him or facing an offer sheet.
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Post by Willie Dog on Apr 6, 2023 18:24:25 GMT -5
How is Mailloux not trending well, he's the highest scoring d man in the OHL? He has good vision, skates well, great shot and he's 6'3" over 210lbs, has a nasty side and is a RHD. Is a potential 1st pairing RHD worth more than a 60 point winger who has played with the best players on every team he's been on and never gone over 60 points. theathletic.com/4379228/2023/04/04/canadiens-prospect-logan-mailloux-film-breakdown/The question marks with Mailloux revolve around his decision making, so I'm not sure one can say he has good vision. If he did, he wouldn't be making poor decisions. He's a good dman in the offensive zone, but questionable elsewhere. His defensive side needs work, that is known, but I've seen games and highlights where he makes good breakout passes to take the pressure off... he's 19... that defensive stuff can be taught though. |
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Post by PTH on Apr 6, 2023 18:35:48 GMT -5
But you can dig into that behind the scenes. HuGo have done a good job and you can see they are going about this the right way, but you know that contending is not simply going to be a function of drafting and developing around what we already have. There is going to be a franchise-altering trade and/or signing in the next couple of years that will either put us back in contention OR be a move we'll regret for years. Maybe it's not PLD but at some point there will be a big decision to make that entails risk. This part now is easy... it's going to get harder. Yup. If we go back about a decade, Bergevin was doing great. Heck, Gauthier did a decent job selling off parts for picks and kids... De La Rose, Thrower and others were drafted while selling off spare parts that didn't have any great value. The real challenge is making a plan, and both sticking to it overall and making the odd adjustment without losing focus of the grand plan. That's where Berg went wrong - not having a clear vision, not building a robust organisation that could be counted on to operate properly and make solid, fact-based decisions, instead it all went through him, and while he did very well in some moves, it didn't fit into an overall vision.... Sometimes losing a trade is OK if it fills a key need. Also - contracts. I think Berg was too old-school and was cheap at times, and then generous at other times, and those contracts still haunt us. Every contract has to be negotiated to get max value within the cap. Loyalty to a guy like Gallagher makes no sense. These guys make millions, even if one made slightly too few millions, that's not a reason to overpay later. I hope the ex-agent in Hughes manages to keep his favorites (and we all have favorites) within the bounds of good contracts. --- If Berg made franchise-altering moves.... Drouin for Sergachev is a massive fail. Pacioretty for Suzuki and co is a hit, and Subban for Weber... I still think should've been the deal where we got high-end offensive talent. Not offense to the man-mountain. |
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Post by Boston_Habs on Apr 7, 2023 9:31:16 GMT -5
If Berg made franchise-altering moves.... Drouin for Sergachev is a massive fail. Pacioretty for Suzuki and co is a hit, and Subban for Weber... I still think should've been the deal where we got high-end offensive talent. Not offense to the man-mountain. The summer of 2017 was the crushing blow on the Bergevin era, worse than the Subban-Weber trade. Bergie makes the Weber trade the prior season and along with the Radulov signing it actually works in the short run. The Habs finished 1st in the division in 2016/17 but got bounced by the Rangers in the the 1st round. Instead of going all-in on that team (which he really had to given that he traded a younger Subban for an older "win now" Shea Weber), Bergie lets Radulov walk, lets Markov walk, and makes one of the worst trades in franchise history (Sergachev for Drouin). It's been all downhill from there. Anyway back to the topic... the Habs seem to be building a nice (but not elite) stable of young talent that can be used as feedstock for a larger deal. On D we have Guhle, Harris, and Barron with the big club with Lane Hutson and Logan Mailloux showing offensive promise. Realistically you can't keep all of them and they won't all work out. The key there is to make sure we keep the best ones (no throwing in Ryan McDonagh to get Scott Gomez) but you have to give quality to get quality. The forward prospects I'm less certain but there are a number of them: Slafkovsky, Roy, Farrell, Mesar, Beck, Kidney. Not sure there's a a legit top 6 player there (even Slaf is a huge ??). I'm sure the brain trust is well aware of this and there is no need to make a big move just yet. But sometimes the move or the opportunity comes along earlier than you might expect. You can't just game it all out to fit your schedule. I don't have any issues yet with this management team (although the Slaf pick is making me nervous) but a guy like PLD could be a nice add to the top 6: Two lines anchored by Suzuki, Caufield, Dach, PLD... it's still not there yet - Anderson is still in the mix but you need other guys to emerge. I just don't want to suck again next year. The rebuild gets old fast! |
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Post by seventeen on Apr 7, 2023 13:16:04 GMT -5
Fair enough. I suppose if PLD is saying he wants to play in MTL then he should back that up. But he's still an RFA after this season, right? So it would need to be a trade no matter what or an offer sheet, which would be a 1st, and 2nd, and a 3rd if the AAV is less than $10m? I suppose I'd rather give that up. So maybe that's the leverage, but I wouldn't take PLD's comments about playing in MTL too seriously. He'll take the best deal he can get which he should. Maybe I'm off but if you believe PLD is a top 6 forward then I don't see how you get a guy like that at 25 years old for a mid 1st round pick and Riley Kidney, who I'm not sure even ranks in the top 10 Habs prospects. Winnipeg could just deal him to another team for a better package and let them take the risk of signing him or facing an offer sheet. I was being cheap, yes. OTOH, he's a UFA after next season, and his value drops with each day. Nonetheless, the offer would have to be sweeter. Florida's pick, Mailloux, Kidney and say Dvorak. |
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Post by seventeen on Apr 7, 2023 13:24:15 GMT -5
If Berg made franchise-altering moves.... Drouin for Sergachev is a massive fail. Pacioretty for Suzuki and co is a hit, and Subban for Weber... I still think should've been the deal where we got high-end offensive talent. Not offense to the man-mountain. I'm still waiting for someone to show me, either in stats, or team success or however, how the Weber deal was a win for Berg. Even when the Habs went to the SC finals, the reality is that in a normal year, with normal divisions and playoff structure, that team wouldn't even have made the playoffs. We lost a puck moving, very good dman for a guy who didn't even play against the other team's top forwards (Petry did that). I agree with the planning part. I listened to a podcast with a guest who scouts juniours and being a youngish guy, he sat with pro scouts as much as he could. The subject of the difference between Berg and HuGo came up and one huge difference was exactly what you said (and what we saw throughout), that there was no overall plan. The guy said that it seemed the organization flew by the seat of its pants, reactive instead of planning ahead. We all saw that. Ottawa beats up Eller, we need to go big, and then the best pick in their following draft was a normal to smallish sized guy, Lehky. Sheesh. |
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